Wii shortages? New productions numbers destroy previous estimates

[daroga]

http://www.joystiq.com/2006/10/05/wii-production-exceeding-expectations/

Possibly up to 11 million manufactured by the end of December? Wow.

[evilmax17]

Nintendo has sold 21 million GCNs so far, and they're going to have 11 million Wiis built by 2007?

That means they're predicting this to sell like hotcakes.

[MusicNoteLess]

Maybe someone will break the Street Date for the Wii since they're so many on hand. Hopefully...

[jkam]

Great! Now Gamestop (have credit there sucks I know) can stop being asshats and start real fucking pre-orders.

[daroga]

I think they've learned from the mistakes of Microsoft (and soon Sony). Shortages may create all sorts of hype, but hype with nothing to sell does you little good. I really wonder what the 360 would be at right now if they were able to keep their production up. I don't think I saw a real like, unclaimed 360 in a store until March of this year. That's like 5 months of people going to the store and finding nothing.

Looks like they'll be well stocked for the holidays, including that vital post-holiday "I got money for Christmas!!!" shopping.

[Troz1820]

Now the big question is if enough copies of the games will be pressed. If there truly will be this many systems on store shelves I would be willing to bet that the software could be hard to come by.

[daroga]

Now the big question is if enough copies of the games will be pressed. If there truly will be this many systems on store shelves I would be willing to bet that the software could be hard to come by.
Especailly Zelda. The adoption rate on that game is going to be almost 1:1 as all the gamers get their hands on the Wii first. Although, I'm sure Nintendo knows this and is planning accordingly.

[foltzie]

Now the big question is if enough copies of the games will be pressed. If there truly will be this many systems on store shelves I would be willing to bet that the software could be hard to come by.

Especailly Zelda. The adoption rate on that game is going to be almost 1:1 as all the gamers get their hands on the Wii first. Although, I'm sure Nintendo knows this and is planning accordingly.

QFT.

However, you would think that pressing the games is a minor point.

[Zoglog]

not suprising given the unadvanced hardware. Good news :)

[ryanbph]

they have said for awhile they would have a bunch of them for launch, I haven't understood why people are talking about camping out for them. 4mill is a shitload of them, and now we are talking 11mill.

[Kaijufan]

I call :bs:. There is no way Nintendo will have 11 million Wiis made by the end of the year.

[camoor]

Does this mean that I will have a shot at walking in a store and lunchtime and picking one up?

If so, then I say bravo for Nintendo. My respect for their business acumen has increased.

[botticus]

I call :bs:. There is no way Nintendo will have 11 million Wiis made by the end of the year.Well, the article says between 9 and 11 million. Nintendo estimated 4 million, which was most likely conservative. So figure their internal estimate was something like 5 or 6 million, and suddenly 7 or 8 million available for shipment (not including an odd million or so that are being assembled) doesn't seem too far fetched if everything was moving smoothly.

[ryanbph]

Does this mean that I will have a shot at walking in a store and lunchtime and picking one up?

If so, then I say bravo for Nintendo. My respect for their business acumen has increased.
11 mill or 5 mill I don't think it will be a problem going into a store and getting one b4 xmass

[sonderiaom]

Possibly up to 11 million manufactured by the end of December? Wow.

Coming into the thread, I had assumed that you were going to mention how one of the factories had burned down or something so that many Wiis would have been of no use, but dear god, that's a lotta Wiis.

[furyk]

Holy Moly Andy!

[ananag112]

There is no way the Wii will sell that much at launch at $250 a piece.

[Dr Mario Kart]

I dont see how they can make so many so fast. They had trouble keeping DSes in stock in Japan for the longest time. Thats going to be hot there this Winter as well.

[Corvin]

I dont see how they can make so many so fast. They had trouble keeping DSes in stock in Japan for the longest time. Thats going to be hot there this Winter as well.

Because they've been producing them since July and not selling until mid November. That is 4 1/2 months of production just sitting in a warehouse somewhere.

[Gator]

I dont see how they can make so many so fast. They had trouble keeping DSes in stock in Japan for the longest time. Thats going to be hot there this Winter as well.
DS's are hard to make because of a shortage of LCD screens. Since it has TWO LCD screens, it made it even harder to get those things through the production line.

Since the architecture of the Wii is so similar to that of the Gamecube (and isn't so far "advanced" as the PS3), it's conceivable that these production estimates could be exceeded - they didn't have to severely reconfigure any part of their manufacturing process, and they don't have any new manufacturing tools (like Sony does with Blu-Ray drives).

[daroga]

Because they've been producing them since July and not selling until mid November. That is 4 1/2 months of production just sitting in a warehouse somewhere.
We need a CAG spy team to figure out WHERE this warehouse is and pay it a visit. I'll gladly leave a check for $249.99 in place of a waiting Wii unit. ;)

[furyk]

There is no way the Wii will sell that much at launch at $250 a piece.

In the United States, hell no. The US, Europe, and Japan though........

[Dr Mario Kart]

Who says they are planning a sell out? I'm sure they would like it, but they might just want it to be available.

So Bob hears about how his friend bought little Timmy one and they're having fun with it, and they dont have to get it on ebay, they can just walk into the Walmart and get it, even close to Christmas

[Tybee]

If this is true, it's pretty much excellent news all around: for consumers, for Nintendo, for retailers, and for the industry. It will be interesting to see how that number is broken down in terms of who (Japan, N.A., Europe) gets what.

It was funny reading the comments on kotaku. Basically 90% Nintendudes tapping the kegs and a few lonely Sony fanboys trying desperately to find a cloud in that silver lining.

[botticus]

Who says they are planning a sell out? I'm sure they would like it, but they might just want it to be available.

So Bob hears about how his friend bought little Timmy one and they're having fun with it, and they dont have to get it on ebay, they can just walk into the Walmart and get it, even close to ChristmasThat sounds like a horrible way to do business. Allowing people to just up and buy your product in any store.

[Tybee]

That sounds like a horrible way to do business. Allowing people to just up and buy your product in any store.

Next thing you know, they'll be selling them in QuickTrips...like Taquitos!

[drfunk85]

I think they are hoping for word to spread quickly after the initial launch and have a bunch of units available so that parents can run out and get one for their kids for Christmas, and I think it will work. There doesn't seem to be any other "It" toy within price range. PS3 is way too expensive for a gift, and the the 360 is a year old and not as hot. I think Nintendo will be competing with itself (Wii vs. DS) as the gift to give kids this year.

[botticus]

I think they are hoping for word to spread quickly after the initial launch and have a bunch of units available so that parents can run out and get one for their kids for Christmas, and I think it will work. There doesn't seem to be any other "It" toy within price range. PS3 is way too expensive for a gift, and the the 360 is a year old and not as hot. I think Nintendo will be competing with itself (Wii vs. DS) as the gift to give kids this year.A couple of toy catalogs are already including it as one of the hot items this holiday season, so it's certainly not going to hurt to have them available between launch day and Christmas.

[Tybee]

I think they are hoping for word to spread quickly after the initial launch and have a bunch of units available so that parents can run out and get one for their kids for Christmas, and I think it will work. There doesn't seem to be any other "It" toy within price range. PS3 is way too expensive for a gift, and the the 360 is a year old and not as hot. I think Nintendo will be competing with itself (Wii vs. DS) as the gift to give kids this year.

Well, there's always Tickle Me Elmo X, but I think we all know that is little more than Grover With A Gimmick. :roll:

[Wolfpup]

If this is for real, it's awesome news. Wii already has the best buzz (among us gamers), and now it might exceed Micrsoft's units in just two months? Awesome.

I've been increasingly wondering if Nintendo is going to reclaim the #1 spot. It would be nice for a GAME company to be in that position again for once.

(I thought the DS was going to bomb horribly when it came out, and it didn't even have half the buzz Wii has.)

Red Steel still looks pretty great to me. The graphics look awesome, I love that it has both sword fighting and guns, and I potentially love that you actually sword fight with...well a sword, sort of :)

[dastly75]

Here's hoping, I really feel that the Wii will appeal to all ages because kids to adults will be immeaditily attracted by the motion sensing controller and hopefully the games will make them stay

[Purple Flames]

Tickle Me Elmo X

What did he find Allah or something?

[munch]

Well, there's always Tickle Me Elmo X, but I think we all know that is little more than Grover With A Gimmick. :roll:

It looks to me like the Tickle Me Elmo X is nothing more tham a souped of Tickle Me Elmo with a gimmicky add on. There's no way I'm paying that much for it. It clearly isn't the next-gen of Sesame Street toddler toys.

*JOKE KIND OF STOLEN FROM TYBEE. I APOLOGIZE*

[io]

It looks to me like the Tickle Me Elmo X is nothing more tham a souped of Tickle Me Elmo with a gimmicky add on. There's no way I'm paying that much for it. It clearly isn't the next-gen of Sesame Street toddler toys.

Yeah, exactly, isn't it just a Tickle Me Elmo 1.5? :rofl:.

[Tybee]

It looks to me like the Tickle Me Elmo X is nothing more tham a souped of Tickle Me Elmo with a gimmicky add on. There's no way I'm paying that much for it. It clearly isn't the next-gen of Sesame Street toddler toys.

Dude...You totally co-opted my joke.

[munch]

Dude...You totally co-opted my joke.

I know, but you have to admit that I took it to the next level. I'll fix my original post. :D

[camoor]

That sounds like a horrible way to do business. Allowing people to just up and buy your product in any store.

:rofl:

[slidecage]

Especailly Zelda. The adoption rate on that game is going to be almost 1:1 as all the gamers get their hands on the Wii first. Although, I'm sure Nintendo knows this and is planning accordingly.


not really. If i get the WII i have no plans on getting zelda

[Dr Mario Kart]

I'm actually going 3rd party only until at least early next year. I know a few other people who have the same sentiment.

[keithp]

He did say "ALMOST". I'm willing to bet you'll be in the minority.

I sure hope Nintendo has done it's QA testing for this go-round. That's potentially 11 million consoles that could have hardware problems.

[botticus]

I'm actually going 3rd party only until at least early next year. I know a few other people who have the same sentiment.That's why I think I'm holding off on ExciteTruck. Nintendo cares less about that selling a million units than Activision or Ubisoft their games.

[Wolfpup]

He did say "ALMOST". I'm willing to bet you'll be in the minority.

I sure hope Nintendo has done it's QA testing for this go-round. That's potentially 11 million consoles that could have hardware problems.

Yup, I'm sure they have. They're Nintendo.

I am a bit worried about whether the whole concept actually works though. Like that it dosen't jitter around, lose calibration, etc.

[Strell]

Ahhh.

Nintendo got my letter stating I was planning on having sex with millions of Wii systems.

That's good to know.

[panasonic]

They keep saying they want to sell to the people who don't play games but the marketing and type of games and pricing only make this a gamer's choice no non gamer is gonna pop done $300 on a wii (with some sort of game) because it looks new they need to drop the price a lot and lower the price on games if they really are out to get nongamers. EVERYONE goes to the movies and spend around $20 each time they go so if they sell thier games at $20 and maybe drop the Console at $150 i see this being a huge 11 million units sold within 6 months kinda huge. I really think the priceing was a HUGE miss. But if they plan on lowering price after holiday season that would be good. The only thing with the wii that is good for newcomers to gaming is that a game is bundled with it.

[botticus]

They keep saying they want to sell to the people who don't play games but the marketing and type of games and pricing only make this a gamer's choice no non gamer is gonna pop done $300 on a wii (with some sort of game) because it looks new they need to drop the price a lot and lower the price on games if they really are out to get nongamers. EVERYONE goes to the movies and spend around $20 each time they go so if they sell thier games at $20 and maybe drop the Console at $150 i see this being a huge 11 million units sold within 6 months kinda huge $20 for 1.5-3 hours of movies
$50 for 10-50+ hours of games

Sounds about right to me.

[panasonic]

I am willing to say if nintendo had came out and Said Wii will retail For $149.99 90% of this site would probably have been really excited about buying it. and to post above, How many new gamers are willing to put 15 hours or 30 hours into a game? And they are not looking at how long it is they are looking at the price and if its enjoyable. $50 entertainment is hard to sell to a casual person

[evilmax17]

$50 entertainment is hard to sell to a casual person
The casual person wouldn't think that way. The casual person would want to try out that Wii thing that they saw Katie Couric play on the news. Or Oprah. Or whichever daytime personality that Nintendo will end up enlisting as a shill.

$250 with a mass-market game is a buyable price. Joe Blow consumer isn't going to want Zelda, they're going to want Wii Sports. Look at all of the mainstream press the Wii has been getting lately. THAT is what sells the average consumer.

[botticus]

I am willing to say if nintendo had came out and Said Wii will retail For $149.99 90% of this site would probably have been really excited about buying it. and to post above, How many new gamers are willing to put 15 hours or 30 hours into a game? And they are not looking at how long it is they are looking at the price and if its enjoyable. $50 entertainment is hard to sell to a casual person
15 hours over the course of 5 years, or however long this generation of consoles lasts? I'm betting most casual gamers can do that, if the games are fun. They don't need to get their money's worth out of a game in the first week they own it.

But I guess if your argument is that Nintendo should lose money on hardware, and on software, I guess that would be a successful way of selling millions of consoles and millions of games and driving their business right into the ground.

Since new gamers don't currently pay anything for games, it's really kinda hard to say how much they will pay.

[Tybee]

They keep saying they want to sell to the people who don't play games but the marketing and type of games and pricing only make this a gamer's choice no non gamer is gonna pop done $300 on a wii (with some sort of game) because it looks new they need to drop the price a lot and lower the price on games if they really are out to get nongamers. EVERYONE goes to the movies and spend around $20 each time they go so if they sell thier games at $20 and maybe drop the Console at $150 i see this being a huge 11 million units sold within 6 months kinda huge. I really think the priceing was a HUGE miss. But if they plan on lowering price after holiday season that would be good. The only thing with the wii that is good for newcomers to gaming is that a game is bundled with it.

This is SO September 2006. :roll:

[panasonic]

15 hours over the course of 5 years, or however long this generation of consoles lasts? I'm betting most casual gamers can do that, if the games are fun. They don't need to get their money's worth out of a game in the first week they own it.

But I guess if your argument is that Nintendo should lose money on hardware, and on software, I guess that would be a successful way of selling millions of consoles and millions of games and driving their business right into the ground.

Since new gamers don't currently pay anything for games, it's really kinda hard to say how much they will pay.

The whole point of lower price structure is to sell a lot more units and games 1 million sold at $50 or 10 million sold at $20 only games now that hit past 2 million are huge titles such as Halo and GTA and Final Fantasy.

[Tybee]

15 hours over the course of 5 years, or however long this generation of consoles lasts? I'm betting most casual gamers can do that, if the games are fun. They don't need to get their money's worth out of a game in the first week they own it.

But I guess if your argument is that Nintendo should lose money on hardware, and on software, I guess that would be a successful way of selling millions of consoles and millions of games and driving their business right into the ground.

Since new gamers don't currently pay anything for games, it's really kinda hard to say how much they will pay.

Surely the love of the general populace and the goodwill from those that formerly spoke ill of them will be enough to sustain Nintendo. Courage!

[daroga]

Wow, this thread took a turn for the worse. I'm almost sorry I posted anything about this now.

This thread has the limited scope of talking about the new production estimates. If you want to yak and complain about the Wii, do it elsewhere (like the Sony forums).

[elwood731]

Well, having plenty of systems fits in with Nintendo's "try it" philosophy. I think they're really betting on people playing the Wii and then wanting to own one. Kind of like how Brain Age is supposed to sell the DS (and has, I think). I think that's what Nintendo is betting on, and hopefully it work out. That's why I expect to see them really roll out a lot of kiosks.

As for the pricing, it appears Nintendo might be making some move for the casual gamer with the whole idea of revamping old GC games with new controls. If they released this as a budget line, say about 3 months after launch, for $20 a piece I can see this bringing in a lot of casual gamers.

Nintendo's got to market this right. Brain Age is being marketed as the new Tetris, and apparently is has been in Japan, and to a lesser extent in the US. If they can find the right title to do that with for the Wii, and maybe that's how they consider Wii Sports, then I think they'll have a hit. I don't think there's nearly the stigma attached to having a console in your living room as an adult as there used to be.

[chodax]

I wana know how many consoles like my local walmart, eb, etc will be getting each. Hopefully these stores will know soon.

[icecubedx5]

I'm not even going to pre-order the Wii anymore. It will be everywhere.

[Kaijufan]

Well, the article says between 9 and 11 million. Nintendo estimated 4 million, which was most likely conservative. So figure their internal estimate was something like 5 or 6 million, and suddenly 7 or 8 million available for shipment (not including an odd million or so that are being assembled) doesn't seem too far fetched if everything was moving smoothly.
I don't know. 5-6 million this year seems realistic, but almost three times their estimate? It just seems a little far fetched to me.

[dothog]

Well, having plenty of systems fits in with Nintendo's "try it" philosophy. I think they're really betting on people playing the Wii and then wanting to own one. Kind of like how Brain Age is supposed to sell the DS (and has, I think). I think that's what Nintendo is betting on, and hopefully it work out.
They need to get the Nintendogs Wii (Dog Island?) out pronto. That game moved a lot of DSs, and it could do the same for the Wii. Wii Sports is a great bundle title, though it's not a good promotional title. As a demo, though, it will serve its purpose well.

Nintendo has things lined up to do some business this holiday, assuming these numbers are true. I doubt the numbers just a tiny bit only because if they already have millions of Wiis ready to roll, I really can't see why they didn't opt for an early November launch. I don't know how you could be "too" far in front of the holiday, but maybe that's their thinking on this.

The price I can understand--though I may not agree with it--but the launch date is still puzzling. If you have early volume, and you have the capacity to pump out enough units to cover holiday sales (I doubt they'll exceed 10 million in Nov/Dec), where's the harm in launching a little early?

Anyhow, the launch date is the only thing that makes me think maybe those estimates are a little off. I would think that Nintendo's got a good grip on their production rates, and you'd think they'd want to launch earlier rather than later. Who knows.

In any case, it's good to hear that production's coming along without a hitch. Sounds like I'll be able to grab one at or just after launch without any pre-order BS necessary. Bravo.

[BIG5]

Now I have high hopes of finding a Wii in my stocking!

[botticus]

Now I have high hopes of finding a Wii in my stocking!That's a big sock.

[BIG5]

That's a big sock.
I have big feet. But seriously, you can fit 3 DVDs in a stocking.

[oyabun]

I don't know. 5-6 million this year seems realistic, but almost three times their estimate? It just seems a little far fetched to me.

If they've been manufacturing them since July, and are ramping-up production in anticipation for the holidays, I can see them having 9-11 million worldwide. The important thing in all this isn't how many systems they have on launch day. It's how quickly they can replenish the supply chain.

Let's say NA gets a million, Europe 1 million, and Japan gets a million. Those million will be gone, for the most part, by the end of the day Sunday, November 19. Gamers and parents in-the-know will snap those up (I need 2 myself. One for me, one for my niece. :) ). That next Friday is Black Friday. All the big stores have crazy sales. I'd bet you there won't be any Ps3s in stores on the 24th. But there will be XBox 360s AND Wiis.

I love all 3 systems. I'll own all 3 systems. But I don't understand why Sony wasn't better prepared to deliver more than 2 million by the end of 4Q06 when

a) One of their main competitors will be 1 year into their launch cycle. The other will LAUNCH with more consoles than Sony can produce for the entire year.

b) The PS3 will appeal to at least 3 separate markets: gamers, parents, HT enthusiasts. Of course, there may be gamer parents who are HT enthusiasts, but you get my meaning.

I'm excited about the Wii and its capabilities. I'm even more excited that I won't have to fight folks. I can save my energy for the Black Friday doorbusters. :)

[io]

I love all 3 systems. I'll own all 3 systems. But I don't understand why Sony wasn't better prepared to deliver more than 2 million by the end of 4Q06 when


This is exactly what makes me think Sony is in much more trouble than they let on. Of course, I bet they've tried everything they could to deliver more units, but the fact that they came out so early saying there's no way they will is not encouraging. It also points to high defect rates for the initial batch that they ARE rushing to market. All of this means I will be very hesitant to get a PS3 for myself for a while until all the dust settles on that mess. (On the flip side, Oblivion is a huge coup for them and puts people like me were on the fence about 360 vs PS3 more in their camp, IF they can sort out all their problems).

Of course, I will be getting the Wii at launch and enjoying the hell out of that up through and beyond Christmas while sticking to the computer to enjoy the antics and anecdotes of the PS3 launch :lol:.

[oyabun]

Of course, I will be getting the Wii at launch and enjoying the hell out of that up through and beyond Christmas while sticking to the computer to enjoy the antics and anecdotes of the PS3 launch :lol:.

I want a PS3, but after waiting in line for 17 hours for the 360 on launch day, I'm going to pay whatever crazy amount of money GS/EB wants for a bundle. And there will be bundles online... :)

I never liked the whole "waiting in line" thing, even when I was younger. I should praise the management at the Best Buy in Burbank, IL. That was one of the 12 Best Buys that "officially" opened at midnight on release day. Their team was great, reassuring the people in the front of the line that they'd get their systems, letting the die-hards in to buy games and accessories during the day. They even VIDEOTAPED the line as it progressed so there would be no question if someone was accused of butting in. But I digress.

I don't mind showing up at 7 AM for a 10 AM open. Hell, I'd show up at 6 AM. But it's not fun to show up at 7AM for a midnight launch. That's what the PS3 launch will be like. The wait wouldn't be so bad if stores had definite plans for lines.

Hopefully, with the amount of Wiis that will be out there, the lines will be nice and orderly.

[botticus]

Hopefully, with the amount of Wiis that will be out there, the lines will be nice and orderly.At this point I think I'll just look at driving around with my friend who is coming up for the launch (hopefully with full knowledge of allocation numbers at various chains by that time), and wait till a sizeable line has formed somewhere. It's just hard to tell how people are going to react to a plentiful supply at launch. Still lineup 12 hours early, not line up at all?

[Chibi_Kaji]

That's why I think I'm holding off on ExciteTruck. Nintendo cares less about that selling a million units than Activision or Ubisoft their games.
I would like to say the same thing, but I have been waiting for Zelda:TP for so long I need to get the game as soon as I can. Other then that the rest of the games I plan to get are 3rd party(I'm looking at getting Marvel:UA along with Zelda at launch).

[Kaijufan]

If they've been manufacturing them since July, and are ramping-up production in anticipation for the holidays, I can see them having 9-11 million worldwide. The important thing in all this isn't how many systems they have on launch day. It's how quickly they can replenish the supply chain.

Let's say NA gets a million, Europe 1 million, and Japan gets a million. Those million will be gone, for the most part, by the end of the day Sunday, November 19. Gamers and parents in-the-know will snap those up (I need 2 myself. One for me, one for my niece. :) ). That next Friday is Black Friday. All the big stores have crazy sales. I'd bet you there won't be any Ps3s in stores on the 24th. But there will be XBox 360s AND Wiis.

I love all 3 systems. I'll own all 3 systems. But I don't understand why Sony wasn't better prepared to deliver more than 2 million by the end of 4Q06 when

a) One of their main competitors will be 1 year into their launch cycle. The other will LAUNCH with more consoles than Sony can produce for the entire year.

b) The PS3 will appeal to at least 3 separate markets: gamers, parents, HT enthusiasts. Of course, there may be gamer parents who are HT enthusiasts, but you get my meaning.

I'm excited about the Wii and its capabilities. I'm even more excited that I won't have to fight folks. I can save my energy for the Black Friday doorbusters. :)

I can see 9-11 million by the end of quarter 1 2007, but it just seems to me a bad business decision to have that many consoles out by the end of the year, since there is no way demand is going to be that high.
I'm sure we'll find out soon enough how many consoles they've made and will have available. Of course, until the final specs for the Wii are announced it's kinda hard for me to make a half way decent guess as to how many units they'll have made.

As for Sony not having more then 2 million units, it's because of the stupid Blu Ray drive and the lack of blue laser diodes. If they just used a standard DVD drive, which would have been the smart thing to do, I bet they could have made their orginal estimate of 4 million units by the end of the year.

[Wolfpup]

That much demand seems reasonable to me. There's a ton of positive buzz about it, and because of that and the price, a lot of casual gamers along with most hard core gamers will probably buy it pretty fast after launch. It's got a really strong line up too, which won't hurt.

[Kaijufan]

Seeing as how the 360 has sold less then 6 million world wide so far I doubt demand will be that high for the first 2 months, even with demand for the Wii being much higher in Japan then the 360.

[io]

Am I missing something here? Why is everyone saying they will buy 3rd party games at launch? Is that some unspoken vow to support 3rd parties who are supporting the Wii? It's just wierd that I see people talking about that when I never saw the original discussion of that aspect (is there a thread for it somewhere?). I can only assume that's what you all mean.

Me, I will be doing the opposite, as it is much more CAG-ey. The first party Nintendo titles will not drop in price any time soon, but Rayman and Spongebob and Red Steel and the rest will be $20 soon enough. I'll get them then. I do have Elebits preordered for the plush at EB, plus my kids thought the video was pretty cool and really want it. If it holds up under reviews I'll keep that preorder and pay full price for it, but that's the only one so far. I just preordered a second Zelda today though (using the 20% bonus at EB - I'll probably cancel my GR preorder for it later). All of my other preorders are for Nintendo titles (MP3, WarioWare, and Mario Galaxy and SSBB as soon as GR adds them).

[neudog]

Must be nice not having a Blu-ray drive :rofl:

[botticus]

Am I missing something here? Why is everyone saying they will buy 3rd party games at launch? Is that some unspoken vow to support 3rd parties who are supporting the Wii? It's just wierd that I see people talking about that when I never saw the original discussion of that aspect (is there a thread for it somewhere?). I can only assume that's what you all mean.
Yeah, I might end up paying more than I would normally, but it's simply an effort to give third parties good returns on their initial investments, leading to more third parties and continued support from third parties. It's well known that Nintendo is the biggest competitor of third parties on their systems. It's not really that I'm going to be buying games I didn't want to buy, more so that if I'm on the fence about a first party game, I'll hold off on it, and pick up another third party game instead. Zelda is obviously getting bought at launch though.

[strayfoxx]

Looking at the subject line, I just love the fact that when a person uses the systems name, 99% of the time they are using a pun without even knowing it.

[evanft]

Looking at the subject line, I just love the fact that when a person uses the systems name, 99% of the time they are using a pun without even knowing it.

:applause: Thanks for pointing that out. I LOL'd.

Anyway, this is fantastic news.

[furyk]

Yeah, I might end up paying more than I would normally, but it's simply an effort to give third parties good returns on their initial investments, leading to more third parties and continued support from third parties. It's well known that Nintendo is the biggest competitor of third parties on their systems. It's not really that I'm going to be buying games I didn't want to buy, more so that if I'm on the fence about a first party game, I'll hold off on it, and pick up another third party game instead. Zelda is obviously getting bought at launch though.

Well you say that, but what else is there at launch? Excite Truck. Not exactly the best offering. There are great looking third party games (Elebits, Trauma Center, Super Monkey Ball, etc), but Nintendo looks like they're spacing out their big stuff to try and give the 3rd parties some breathing room.

[io]

Well you say that, but what else is there at launch? Excite Truck. Not exactly the best offering. There are great looking third party games (Elebits, Trauma Center, Super Monkey Ball, etc), but Nintendo looks like they're spacing out their big stuff to try and give the 3rd parties some breathing room.

Well, yeah, I guess I'm actually going 50/50 - getting Zelda and Elebits, and that's it for a while. I will wait for a price drop on Exctie Truck, as well as all the other 3rd party games coming out at launch. But I will be picking up Metroid/WarioWare/Mario Galaxy/SSBB as soon as they come out.

Oh, I might pick up Dragon Quest Swords (did anyone catch the reference to that in Dragon Quest Heroes by the way?) if it gets good reviews. So if that is the case I'll be supporting 3rd parties 2:1 over Nintendo - but as Furyk says, that is more by default since Nintendo's releases are spaced out.

[dserafin1986]

Dude's right...Nintendo takes forever to drop the prices of their launch titles...Excite Truck will probably be 49.99 for a year...I can't wait for this sytem now...I'm very hype about it...Wasn't initially...But the more I see of it, the more I love it...There is just something about the way they make games...Zelda is case in point, and hardcore gamers like us, will respect that out of the gate...It will be the most successful Nintendo system since SNES...

[regisphilbi0]

I'm still for sure gonna camp out for it. And I'm getting Zelda at launch (duh) and Red Steel with it. I agree with the above post, after E3 I thought it was a good system but as more and more information about it comes out I am dying to play it. And I will also be buying WarioWare/Metroid/SSBB/Mario the second they come out.

[FriskyTanuki]

Especailly Zelda. The adoption rate on that game is going to be almost 1:1 as all the gamers get their hands on the Wii first. Although, I'm sure Nintendo knows this and is planning accordingly.
:lol: Not hardly, but it will sell very well.

[oyabun]

I can see 9-11 million by the end of quarter 1 2007, but it just seems to me a bad business decision to have that many consoles out by the end of the year, since there is no way demand is going to be that high.
I'm sure we'll find out soon enough how many consoles they've made and will have available. Of course, until the final specs for the Wii are announced it's kinda hard for me to make a half way decent guess as to how many units they'll have made.


That's true. It could be a shrewd business move to produce that many... or a really dumb one. If the Wii really is a Gamecube 1.5, then Nintendo might have decided to reduce its GC production to ramp-up Wii production. I think 9 million shipped worldwide is believeable.


As for Sony not having more then 2 million units, it's because of the stupid Blu Ray drive and the lack of blue laser diodes. If they just used a standard DVD drive, which would have been the smart thing to do, I bet they could have made their orginal estimate of 4 million units by the end of the year.

I agree. That decision may backfire on Sony.

[foltzie]

I can see 9-11 million by the end of quarter 1 2007, but it just seems to me a bad business decision to have that many consoles out by the end of the year, since there is no way demand is going to be that high.

That's true. It could be a shrewd business move to produce that many... or a really dumb one. If the Wii really is a Gamecube 1.5, then Nintendo might have decided to reduce its GC production to ramp-up Wii production. I think 9 million shipped worldwide is believeable.


I'm going with shrewd. The consoles been complete for a while now and I doubt they pay their Asian manufacturers overtime. They could just store the completed consoles and be ready to staff up with temps to box them up if the demand goes through the roof. The risk of course is that a bulging inventory could end up costing them a lot of extra cash, both in storage costs and in lost gains from cheaper manufacturing with age.

[Corvin]

:lol: Not hardly, but it will sell very well.

Yeah I don't quite think Zelda is going to hit 1:1 either. It is a solid title and franchise, but it is definitely not for everyone. It doesn't have that widespread appeal that Mario garners either. Yes, it will do well, but hardly 1:1.

[pop311]

Yeah I don't quite think Zelda is going to hit 1:1 either. It is a solid title and franchise, but it is definitely not for everyone. It doesn't have that widespread appeal that Mario garners either. Yes, it will do well, but hardly 1:1.what does 1:1 mean?

[Plinko]

what does 1:1 mean?

1 Zelda game sold for every 1 Wii sold.

[foltzie]

Yeah I don't quite think Zelda is going to hit 1:1 either. It is a solid title and franchise, but it is definitely not for everyone. It doesn't have that widespread appeal that Mario garners either. Yes, it will do well, but hardly 1:1.

I dont think anyone really expects a 1:1 ratio, but a 8:10 or 9:10 ratio is probably reasonable through the first month or so.

[FriskyTanuki]

I dont think anyone really expects a 1:1 ratio, but a 8:10 or 9:10 ratio is probably reasonable through the first month or so.
I still even doubt that much. There's still the GameCube version coming a few weeks later that'll take some of those potential sales away from the Wii version.

[drfunk85]

I still even doubt that much. There's still the GameCube version coming a few weeks later that'll take some of those potential sales away from the Wii version.

While I don't really have an opinion on what the ratio will be, anyone who has a Wii won't buy the gamecube version, they will buy the Wii version if they are going too, and so the GC version shouldn't effect the ratio of Wiis sold to WiiZeldas sold.

[FriskyTanuki]

While I don't really have an opinion on what the ratio will be, anyone who has a Wii won't buy the gamecube version, they will buy the Wii version if they are going too, and so the GC version shouldn't effect the ratio of Wiis sold to WiiZeldas sold.
Funny. I'll be getting a Wii and waiting for the GC version, so there goes your prediction. ;)

[drfunk85]

Funny. I'll be getting a Wii and waiting for the GC version, so there goes your prediction. ;)

Well, as is everything in life, there are no absolutes. Maybe I should have prefaced it by saying almost all who buy the Wii will but the Wii version instead of the GC version, or 99% will. There's always exceptions. I just can't fathom any significant number that will effect a ratio more than a fraction of a percentage.

[lilboo]

What was the number we are getting here in North America on launch?
Was it 1 million, or more?

Maybe that is a lot, but how do you split up 1 million Wii's throughout all of the US and Canada (and Mexico?) and think that's enough?

Has there been any word on the exact amount we would get and..like how many certain stores will carry? Example: Gamestop/EBgames getting 10 each, Walmarts getting 20, etc.

Luckily for me there's a Gamestop, a 24 hour Wal-Mart AND a KBToys in the same shopping plaza. So hopefully there isn't a problem come Nov 19. But there's also a mall (that has a EB and Gamestop_ and there's a BB and CC right around the corner--and that's about 10 minutes from me.

There's also a Target down the road from that Wal-Mart. And they just opened a new Target from me about 10 minutes as well.

And now that I'm thinking about it, there's ANOTHER Gamestop AND EBGames along with a Kmart on the way to that mall. (And even a Gamestop NEAR the mall, lol)

So is it safe to think that I SHOULD be able to obtain a Wii on November 19 being that I am around alot of stores?

[botticus]

We'll probably know in the next couple days how many EB/GS stores are getting, if they are going to be taking preorders on Friday. But if they're getting ~16 PS3s per store at an expected 400k through NA, I would imagine they'll be getting 30+ Wiis.

[munch]

We'll probably know in the next couple days how many EB/GS stores are getting, if they are going to be taking preorders on Friday. But if they're getting ~16 PS3s per store at an expected 400k through NA, I would imagine they'll be getting 30+ Wiis.

And if they are getting 30+, I would imagine a place like wal-mart or Best Buy would get more than that, right? I'm really trying to avoid giving any business to GS, so hopefully I can just walk into any store and grab one on the 19th.

[botticus]

And if they are getting 30+, I would imagine a place like wal-mart or Best Buy would get more than that, right? I'm really trying to avoid giving any business to GS, so hopefully I can just walk into any store and grab one on the 19th.I would imagine the big box stores would get more, but that will vary on a store by store basis (I seem to recall the Best Buys here varying greatly in the number of 360s they were getting).

[Corvin]

We'll probably know in the next couple days how many EB/GS stores are getting, if they are going to be taking preorders on Friday. But if they're getting ~16 PS3s per store at an expected 400k through NA, I would imagine they'll be getting 30+ Wiis.

That's what I'm thinking. At 1 million, there will be, roughly, 2.5 times as many as PS3s or 360s on launch day.

For example(since I know the number available), I snagged my 360 at Sam's Club. They got 20. I'd expect them to have 50 or so Wiis on launch day.

[zman73]

I still even doubt that much. There's still the GameCube version coming a few weeks later that'll take some of those potential sales away from the Wii version.

I dont think 8:10 or more is such an outrageous prediction, COD2 for 360 was picked up by a large percentage of 360 customers upon launch, and it doesnt have the appeal of being one of Nintendo's biggest franchises ever

[furyk]

I dont think 8:10 or more is such an outrageous prediction, COD2 for 360 was picked up by a large percentage of 360 customers upon launch, and it doesnt have the appeal of being one of Nintendo's biggest franchises ever

COD 2 was picked up by a large percentage of customers at launch simply because nothing at launch was really screaming "buy me". With the Wii, you've got at least five potentially great to classic games at launch plus the whole load of ports that always get launched with a system. I think a 1:2 adoption rate would be huge for Zelda. Anything above that is astronomical especially considering every US owner has a system and a game out of the box. I think quite a few parents are just going to be happy having Wii Sports for the kids to start out with.

[botticus]

The article Cheapy mentioned on the CAGcast today put estimated sell-through numbers at 500,000 for Madden. That would be about the 1:2 ratio, and I would imagine Zelda would beat that. Of course, no one really knows how these places go about coming up with these sell-through estimates.

[hack]

2 million launch units. (http://www.n-sider.com/newsview.php?type=story&storyid=2479)

Wow Wii. This is going to be one merry Christmas.

Although this new article states that Nintendo is estimating 7-9 million units by the end of 4th quarter. Not exactly the 11 million we've been hearing about, but then again, it's probably Nintendo throwing out conservative numbers like always.

[FriskyTanuki]

COD 2 was picked up by a large percentage of customers at launch simply because nothing at launch was really screaming "buy me". With the Wii, you've got at least five potentially great to classic games at launch plus the whole load of ports that always get launched with a system. I think a 1:2 adoption rate would be huge for Zelda. Anything above that is astronomical especially considering every US owner has a system and a game out of the box. I think quite a few parents are just going to be happy having Wii Sports for the kids to start out with.
Exactly, the Wii Sports pack-in will be enough for quite a few people that are getting them as gifts. Along with that are the people that aren't interested in Zelda, but the other games available at launch, that will take some more of the consoles. I think a .7:1 to .8:1 is most likely, though Wii Sports will beat it and outsell it for obvious reasons.

What are the 5 "great to classic" launch games that you mentioned? I'm only coming up with Zelda at the moment.

[pop311]

when does Q4 end? Dec31? also, is that 2million for North America alone, or the entire Earth?

[daroga]

when does Q4 end? Dec31? also, is that 2million for North America alone, or the entire Earth?
Gotta be NA, because the previous promise was 4 million worldwide by Dec 31... right? Can't remember. ;)

[furyk]

Q4 for Nintendo ends March 31st, fiscally speaking. That's why March has become such a huge month for gaming.

Edit: My five "great to classic" (ignoring Wii Sports of course) games are Zelda, Trauma Center, Elebits, Super Monkey Ball, and perhaps Excite Truck. Red Steel could be tossed out as a potential substitute for any of those games you don't like. Again, most of these lean more towards "great" rather then "classic", but there is still plenty to buy besides Zelda at launch. I wouldn't be surprised if some people passed on a launch game to buy $50 worth of Wii points just to download old games.

[jalu6]

Funny. I'll be getting a Wii and waiting for the GC version, so there goes your prediction. ;)

Same here. So, um... there you go.

[Wolfpup]

Why get the Gamecube version if you're getting a Wii?

And personally, I don't think any of the games listed, Trauma Center, Elebits, Super Monkey Ball, Excite Truck, will be anything close to classics. I'm mildly interested in all of those (especially Elebits), but I'm not really expecting much more than simple, gimicky games.

[botticus]

Why get the Gamecube version if you're getting a Wii?

And personally, I don't think any of the games listed, Trauma Center, Elebits, Super Monkey Ball, Excite Truck, will be anything close to classics. I'm mildly interested in all of those (especially Elebits), but I'm not really expecting much more than simple, gimicky games.I can understand getting the GC version of TP, since it was created for the GC. I'm still getting the Wii version (or possibly both).

[furyk]

Why get the Gamecube version if you're getting a Wii?

And personally, I don't think any of the games listed, Trauma Center, Elebits, Super Monkey Ball, Excite Truck, will be anything close to classics. I'm mildly interested in all of those (especially Elebits), but I'm not really expecting much more than simple, gimicky games.

As far as I'm concerned, the first SMB and Trauma Center ARE classics. Like I said, I think most of these will lean towards great rather then classic. Having said that, I doubt any of these will score less then 8s to 9s though.

[SpazX]

And personally, I don't think any of the games listed, Trauma Center, Elebits, Super Monkey Ball, Excite Truck, will be anything close to classics. I'm mildly interested in all of those (especially Elebits), but I'm not really expecting much more than simple, gimicky games.

As furyk said, trauma center and super monkey ball are definitely established and at least monkey ball is already a classic.

If you seriously think Super Monkey Ball: BB will be gimmicky, you definitely haven't played any of the previous 2 on the cube. Those games are fantastic and with 50 minigames BB will be an even better party game and looks like it will be the best out of the series so far. It's basically Sega's new sonic since sonic games have been pretty shitty lately.

Excite Truck and Elebits could be the start of new franchises if they're done right, just because they're using a new control and having fun with it doesn't mean they're just gimmicky tech demos.

[Wolfpup]

Well, personal preference thing. I *HATE* Super Monkey Ball 1 and 2. HATE HATE HATE HATE them with a passion. Heights and nitpicky gameplay, two things I hate stuck together. As bad as...well almost every Sonic game since the Genesis has been, I'd rather play Sonic Heroes or something than Monkey Ball.

Even still I’d probably consider a rental of the Wii version, just because it seems like the controller would be really neat for it-just tilt it to tilt the ball. Sounds a lot less frustrating then moving a stick.

[hack]

Well, personal preference thing. I *HATE* Super Monkey Ball 1 and 2. HATE HATE HATE HATE them with a passion. Heights and nitpicky gameplay, two things I hate stuck together. As bad as...well almost every Sonic game since the Genesis has been, I'd rather play Sonic Heroes or something than Monkey Ball.

Even still I’d probably consider a rental of the Wii version, just because it seems like the controller would be really neat for it-just tilt it to tilt the ball.

I didn't like Monkey Ball 1/2 either. Everyone here kept praising it, so I bought a GCN 2-pack for cheap. Barely played it. I sold it recently to pre-order my Wii.

That being said, I do want to try SMB BB. Maybe the new control scheme will change my mind about it or make it more fun.

As for some of the other games...

- If Trauma Center SO is even half as good as Trauma Center UTK, then it's already a must-have. There is no way that SO will not be a great game.

- Excite Truck looks pretty bland to me on video and screens. But people who have played it say its lots of fun. It seems like its turning out to be a sleeper hit, possible.

- Red Steel gets better with each and every new video and screenshot. I was on the fence about the game a while ago, but now I definitely have to have it, and I have a feeling that it'll be a must-have come launch day.

- Rayman just looks fun. Period. Doesn't look like it's going to be an AAA Zelda-caliber title, but it just looks fun, and that's all we really want.

- Elebits looks interesting. I really want to know more about the game. Its a game I'll look into more, but at this point, its not a must-have.

I think the Wii has a pretty darn good launch line-up. It's not the best, but it is far from the worst. I do hope that Nintendo and 3rd parties bring over some of the more obscure Japanese titles to the US.

[furyk]

Well, personal preference thing. I *HATE* Super Monkey Ball 1 and 2. HATE HATE HATE HATE them with a passion. Heights and nitpicky gameplay, two things I hate stuck together. As bad as...well almost every Sonic game since the Genesis has been, I'd rather play Sonic Heroes or something than Monkey Ball.

Even still I’d probably consider a rental of the Wii version, just because it seems like the controller would be really neat for it-just tilt it to tilt the ball. Sounds a lot less frustrating then moving a stick.

Ok, I absolutely hate the Final Fantasy series because it has a shit story and shit characters. I understand I'm in the minority opinion on this though, and I recognize that it is one of the most influential game series ever made. I hate World of Warcraft and all MMORPGs fundamentally, but I can recogize that they're good games. Saying that you hate Monkey Ball is one thing, but discrediting it as a game that might be must have for everyone else is a whole seperate thing. I don't know if you said that, but I tie my feelings and emotion to video games and you hurt them sir.

[Wolfpup]

Sorry, didn't mean to, although I don't think Monkey Ball is anywhere near the level of a Zelda or Metroid of Final Fantasy or something in terms of selling systems.

I just hate falling off platforms in games, and I hate ultra hard gameplay, and SMB has both of those in force, so it's not for me (I love the graphics and theme though!)

[elwood731]

Sorry, didn't mean to, although I don't think Monkey Ball is anywhere near the level of a Zelda or Metroid of Final Fantasy or something in terms of selling systems.

I just hate falling off platforms in games, and I hate ultra hard gameplay, and SMB has both of those in force, so it's not for me (I love the graphics and theme though!)
You're right that it isn't a system seller for most, but it is a great launch title for most who are buying due to Zelda, Red Steel, Wario Ware, or some other title. Super Monkey Ball was the first title I bought for my GC and I got so much play out of it (especially the mini-games). It's worth it for those alone, in my book.

As for the difficulty, I do agree that some later levels were a pain, but for the most part the early levels were pretty easy to pick up and play.

[Corvin]

You're right that it isn't a system seller for most, but it is a great launch title for most who are buying due to Zelda, Red Steel, Wario Ware, or some other title. Super Monkey Ball was the first title I bought for my GC and I got so much play out of it (especially the mini-games). It's worth it for those alone, in my book.



Exactly. SMB may not be a system seller but it is a fantastic companion game to pick up at a launch. Easy, fun, lighthearted and addictive gameplay. It's no Zelda or Mario, but if you are picking up a second game you can't go wrong with a Monkey Ball title.

Matt C(IGN) recently had this to say about SMB:BB ~
After two dedicated hours, I can tell you that the game is pretty awesome and I want every person who even remotely liked the previous titles -- excluding the terrible Super Monkey Ball Adventure, that is -- to go now and pre-order it. You will simply not be disappointed.

Look for my impressions -- and amazing new movies -- very soon. But in the meantime, dream of the monkey goodness, for it is vast and beautiful.

By the way, people who still say that the old games look better -- and I'm talking about visuals here -- you are blind. Banana Blitz is in a graphic league well beyond its predecessors.

I was mildly interested before, but this blog post has me thinking about picking it up at launch.

[Tybee]

Exactly. SMB may not be a system seller but it is a fantastic companion game to pick up at a launch.

Watch those abbreviations. The other SMB sold quite a few NES's back in tha day. ;)

[evanft]

What I'm looking at:

Excite Truck
Metal Slug Anthology
Red Steel
SMB
Trauma Center
Zelda

I have fantastic taste!