November NPD U.S. Sales Data + Japan 12/3-12/9

[Dr Mario Kart]

Hardware Unit Sales

PlayStation 2 496K
PlayStation 3 466K
PSP 567K
Xbox 360 770K
Wii 981K
Nintendo DS 1.53 million

November 2007 Top 10 Video Games Rank # Units
360 CALL OF DUTY 4: MODERN WARFARE ACTIVISION (CORP) NOV 2007 MATURE (M) 1 1.57 million
WII SUPER MARIO GALAXY NINTENDO OF AMERICA NOV 2007 EVERYONE (E) 2 1.12 million
360 ASSASSIN'S CREED UBISOFT NOV 2007 MATURE (M) 3 980K
PS2 GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK ACTIVISION (CORP) OCT 2007 TEEN (T) 4 967K
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE NINTENDO OF AMERICA FEB 2007 EVERYONE (E) 5 564K
360 MASS EFFECT MICROSOFT (CORP) NOV 2007 MATURE (M) 6 473K
PS3 CALL OF DUTY 4: MODERN WARFARE ACTIVISION (CORP) NOV 2007 MATURE (M) 7 444K
WII GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK ACTIVISION (CORP) OCT 2007 TEEN (T) 8 426K
360 HALO 3 MICROSOFT (CORP) SEP 2007 MATURE (M) 9 387K
PS3 ASSASSIN'S CREED UBISOFT NOV 2007 MATURE (M) 10 377K

U.S. Video Games Market - November 2007

Dollar Sales November 2006 November 2007
Video Games $1.74 billion $2.63 billion 52%
Video Games Hardware $772 million $1.1 billion 41%
Console Hardware $519 million $771 million 49%
Portable Game Hardware $253 million $319 million 26%
Video Games Software $804 million $1.3 billion 62%
Console Software $617 million $1.1 billion 75%
Portable Game Software $187 million $218 million 16%
Video Game Accessories $160 million $243 million 52%

[Charts+Other data to follow]

Wii

Mario and Sonic at the Olympics (#11) - 330k
Lego Star Wars - 180k
High School Musical - 180k
Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles - 120k
Zack & Wiki - 35k
Zapper+Crossbow Training - 232k
Wii Play ~ 3 million lifetime

DS
Phantom Hourglass - 226.5K
FFXII: Revenant Wings - 48.6K

Rock Band
360 - 312K
PS3 - 70K

Uncharted - 117k
Ratchet & Clank - 67k (140k LTD)
SixAxis - 282k

360 HDDVD drive Lifetime - 269k

Some simExchange estimates (very close)

Call of Duty 4 (X360): 1,565,404
Super Mario Galaxy: 1,123,070
Mass Effect: 472,793
Assassin's Creed (PS3): 376,843
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: 328,314
Rock Band (X360): 311,903
Crysis: 86,633
Unreal Tournament 3: 33,995
Manhunt 2 (Wii): 18,494

Hardware SINCE PS3/Wii launch

DS 8,476,743
Wii 6,019,848
X360 5,001,718
PS2 4,902,772
PSP 4,192,102
PS3 2,446,786

2007 Numbers:

DS 5,960,150
Wii 4,939,678
X360 3,358,832
PS2 2,844,765
PSP 2,762,920
PS3 1,759,104

And since they came in today, Media Create 12/3-12/9 (Japan)


Hardware - This Week | Last Week | YTD | LTD
1. NDS - 168,267 | 124,627 | 6,446,771 | 20,452,450
2. WII - 115,057 | 74,764 | 3,140,843 | 4,060,486
3. PSP - 91,481 | 74,626 | 2,551,681 | 7,083,810
4. PS3 - 38,123 | 37,092 | 1,009,525 | 1,467,083
5. PS2 - 11,987 | 13,703 | 708,193 | 20,863,052
6. 360 - 8,876 | 6,632 | 217,866 | 482,568
7. GBA - 114 | 33 | 50,394 | 15,348,473
8. NGC - 46 | 32 | 10,463 | 4,179,931
01./02. [WII] Wii Fit (http://www.nintendo.co.jp/wii/rfnj/) (Nintendo (http://www.nintendo.co.jp/)) - 149,587 / 411,000
02./06. [NDS] Mario Party DS (http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ds/a8tj/) (Nintendo (http://www.nintendo.co.jp/)) - 106,995 / 646,000
03./00. [NDS] Tales of Innocence (http://namco-ch.net/talesofinnocence/index.php) (Bandai-Namco (http://www.bandainamcogames.co.jp/)) - 104,317 / NEW
04./00. [PSP] Hot Shots Golf Portable 2 (http://www.jp.playstation.com/scej/title/mgp2/) (Sony (http://www.scei.co.jp/)) - 87,231 / NEW
05./01. [NDS] Prof. Layton and Pandora's Box (http://www.layton.jp/akuma/) (Level 5 (http://www.level5.co.jp/)) - 75,609 / 370,000
06./04. [NDS] Dragon Quest IV (http://www.square-enix.co.jp/dragonquest/4to6/dsdq4/) (Square-Enix (http://www.square-enix.com/jp/)) - 63,447 / 795,000
07./00. [360] Lost Odyssey (http://lostodyssey.jp/) (Microsoft (http://www.xbox.com/ja-JP/)) - 54,581 / NEW
08./00. [NDS] Powerful Pro-kun Pocket 10 (http://www.konami.jp/pawa/poke10/) (Konami (http://www.konami.jp/gs/)) - 54,372 / NEW
09./11. [WII] Super Mario Galaxy (http://www.nintendo.co.jp/wii/rmgj/) (Nintendo (http://www.nintendo.co.jp/)) - 44,705 / 476,000
10./09. [WII] Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games (http://www.nintendo.co.jp/wii/rwsj/) (Nintendo (http://www.nintendo.co.jp/)) - 44,677 / 148,000

[Apossum]

Love ya PS3 but.........3rd place am confirmed.

[PyroGamer]

Weren't the PS3 numbers supposed to be half-decent this month thanks to the price-drop?

[Dr Mario Kart]

Weren't the PS3 numbers supposed to be half-decent this month thanks to the price-drop?

The problem is that 360 has been eating into the base that can tolerate $400 as a price point ever since launch.

[PyroGamer]

Is there any site that lists all previous NPD monthly sales data?

The problem is that 360 has been eating into the base that can tolerate $400 as a price point ever since launch.
Well if the PS3 is meant to "only go after the PS2", then it's ALMOST doing a good job.

[Dr Mario Kart]

If you google "[full month name] [200x] npd neogaf" you should get anything you need or links to it.

[zewone]

LOL.

I thought the That Triple was supposed to beat the 360 because of the 40GB launch.

[Ikohn4ever]

1.5 mill DSs and not one game on the top 10 list, weird

[Dr Mario Kart]

Not a lot of big, new DS releases this month. Phantom Hourglass was already spent in October.

The Brain Ages, Mario Kart and NSMB have been floating around the bottom half of the top #25 at Amazon for quite some time.

My guess is that theres lots of old software but still technically new on shelves that are being bought. Nothing that could compete with high profile, and NEW releases though.

[mykevermin]

Using VGChartz sales figures, 16.67% of 360 owners bought COD4, while 15.12% of PS3 owners did. For Rock Band, 3.31% of 360 owners bought Rock Band, while 2.4% did on PS3. Since that doesn't specify bundle vs software, it's hard to see if 360 owners were more likely to drop $170, or if the ratio difference is due to PS3 owners knowing damn well their software-only Rock Band may as well be called "Singstar until the instruments are sold separately," and avoiding it as a result.

10.4% of 360 owners bought Assassin's Creed, compared with 12.95% of PS3 owners.

Now attach rates/sell through are only minor points to publishers when you're selling 3-4 times as many units on the 360. I think the good news for Sony and 3rd party publishers is that people are buying multiplatform software in the (roughly) same proportion (surely within 1 standard deviation of the mean) of software compared to its competitors.

What will be an interesting comparison will be software like Stranglehold and Orange Box, where the PS3 version is delayed by several months and, in the case of OB, has a severe stigmatizing case of the "OMG PS3 version SUX"es.

The bad news is this: someone said "I thought Sony was supposed to have a huge month for sales." And they did - compared to their own previous sales trends. Irrespective of whether or not the % increase in units moved this month is greater than Microsoft and Nintendo, they're being outpaced in terms of sales; the gap this month is numerically larger than its ever been (and theoretically larger if Nintendo would put the fucking systems in stores rather than continuing to create artificial demand).

So there's good news and bad news for Sony. Unless they can turn their sales increase into actual *momentum*, though, they'll be saddled in what I call "pseudo second place" (since people seem to forget that the 360 is not in first place ;)).

[Dr Mario Kart]

Lets see what Kaz has to say about the race for second :lol:

http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/5647/overpo9io7.jpg

[Rei no Otaku]

Go Mass Effect!

[PyroGamer]

The bad news is this: someone said "I thought Sony was supposed to have a huge month for sales." And they did - compared to their own previous sales trends.If this is considered a good month for the PS3.... wow. Things are worse than I realized.

[Apossum]

Uncharted - 117k
Ratchet & Clank - 67k (140k LTD)



that's seriously fucked up.

[Dr Mario Kart]

If this is considered a good month for the PS3.... wow. Things are worse than I realized.
I believe you are underestimating the power of _____. Just wait for it.

[mykevermin]

I believe you are underestimating the power of _____. Just wait for it.

As someone who can pull out how many copies of "Jikkyou Powerful Superstar Princess Robot Taisen X" sold on the 3D0 in September 1993 out of their ass within moments of the asking, I would imagine you would have more reverence for the numbers than a cursory "haw haw Sony AM doomed." I guess I'm wrong.

At any rate, September and October NPD numbers.

October:
Wii: 519K
360: 366K
PS3: 121K

September:
Wii: 501K
360: 528K (Halo 3, mind ya')
PS3: 119K

So, % increase from Sept-Oct-Nov:
Wii: 3.5% (from Sept to Oct), 89.0% (Oct-Nov)
360: -30.7% (Sept-Oct), 110.4% (Oct-Nov)
PS3: 1.6% (Sept-Oct), 285.1% (Oct-Nov)

Wait for _____ indeed.

[Dr Mario Kart]

The percent increase is certainly nice, but they're still in a really tough fight to get out of where they are. I dont expect that kind of percentage gain to be consistent enough to take the lead over 360 in December.

360 has already eaten up loads of marketshare at this price point, and can continue to keep Sony on the defensive on the matter. I just dont see how they get out of it, short of putting all the hopes on the backs of a few ultra high end exclusives.

They cant catch up on either price or marketshare in the short term, and I have to wonder how much time they have left to stage a comeback.

[Snake2715]

As someone who can pull out how many copies of "Jikkyou Powerful Superstar Princess Robot Taisen X" sold on the 3D0 in September 1993 out of their ass within moments of the asking, I would imagine you would have more reverence for the numbers than a cursory "haw haw Sony AM doomed." I guess I'm wrong.

At any rate, September and October NPD numbers.

October:
Wii: 519K
360: 366K
PS3: 121K

September:
Wii: 501K
360: 528K (Halo 3, mind ya')
PS3: 119K

So, % increase from Sept-Oct-Nov:
Wii: 3.5% (from Sept to Oct), 89.0% (Oct-Nov)
360: -30.7% (Sept-Oct), 110.4% (Oct-Nov)
PS3: 1.6% (Sept-Oct), 285.1% (Oct-Nov)

Wait for _____ indeed.

Myke are you just being smart or do you honestly believe Nintendo wants to sell less units and create "artificial demand" by holding stock? If the released another 2 million in the US right now I would almost bet they would be gone by the 25th.

It honestly makes no sense for them to hold back stock this year. This is their one big chance.

[Wlogan31]

Wait - when did Zack & Wiki release? Are CAGs the only people buying this game?

[zionoverfire]

Weren't the PS3 numbers supposed to be half-decent this month thanks to the price-drop?
Those are half decent, that's like a 4X increase from Octobers NPD right?

But look at all those DSs being sold, holy fuck!

And I thought crossbow training would sell more than that, it's an awesome game and only $20!

[Blackout]

Uncharted - 117k
Ratchet & Clank - 67k (140k LTD)



that's seriously fucked up.

More people need to buy these games. :cry:

[hcamacho]

Sony must be thinking really badly at what is happening to them, I still remember Kutaragi saying people will work more , harder , for a PS3.....it seems there is not much overtime hours available...hahahe...

Joking aside Sony must be grateful that the 360 is non-existent in Japan, so there they have won really over the 360, but how Japanese developers will think now after all the great work MS has done in USA, ........for the PS3 to catch up, they really need a big price cut, I still know people who despite all the great games the 360 have, they still tell me the ps3 is too expensive, and those folks are not even looking at the Wii or the 360, there are millions of PS2 owners waiting for the ps3 to come down in price to get it, Sony still has big chance of winning over the 360, ....believe there are guys outhere that will get a ps3 no matter what games are available for the system, and MS should take notice of that and do something to win over those still loyal PlayStation FANS......

[TC]

Hardware Unit Sales

Wii 981K
Nintendo DS 1.53 million


Damn thats a ton.

[Azumangaman]

Uncharted - 117k
Ratchet & Clank - 67k (140k LTD)



that's seriously fucked up.

QFT. Both are serious competitors for Top 5 Games of 07 in my books (Ratchet for sure).

[H.Cornerstone]

Luckily for Sony, Europe is Sony-land.

[The Crotch]

More people need to buy these games. :cry:Careful, there! You're starting to sound like you own a Wii!

[Blackout]

Careful, there! You're starting to sound like you own a Wii!

*gasp* Not a Wii!

But seriously, those Uncharted numbers are weak for such a badass game.

[PyroGamer]

More people need to buy these games. :cry:
Too bad it (they) got stuck on the PS3.

Kiss of death right there.

[Blackout]

Too bad it (they) got stuck on the PS3.

Kiss of death right there.

Possibly, I dunno. What is the highest selling PS3 game? Heavenly Sword?

[PyroGamer]

Possibly, I dunno. What is the highest selling PS3 game? Heavenly Sword?
Well Resistance had a couple million. Not sure if Heavenly Sword passed that... I think it was at 200k first month, or around there.

Don't think Motorstorm quite passed 2 mill, but it's probably in 2nd place.

[H.Cornerstone]

Well Resistance had a couple million. Not sure if Heavenly Sword passed that... I think it was at 200k first month, or around there.

Don't think Motorstorm quite passed 2 mill, but it's probably in 2nd place.

Yeah, IIRC Resistance is Number 1 with 2 million and Motorstorm is Number 2 with over 1 million.

[elmyra]

Well Resistance had a couple million. Not sure if Heavenly Sword passed that... I think it was at 200k first month, or around there.

Don't think Motorstorm quite passed 2 mill, but it's probably in 2nd place.
VG Chartz has Heavenly Sword at 620k worldwide, 230k in the US. By comparison, they put R:FoM at 1.96m worldwide & 950k domestic, and Motorstorm at 1.84m worldwide & 970k domestic.

Keep in mind that I have no idea how accurate their numbers are.

[jer7583]

Price drop/christmas and PS3 is still the worst selling Playstation product. Great job, sony. Meanwhile Nintendo makes more money than god.

[mykevermin]

Myke are you just being smart or do you honestly believe Nintendo wants to sell less units and create "artificial demand" by holding stock? If the released another 2 million in the US right now I would almost bet they would be gone by the 25th.

It honestly makes no sense for them to hold back stock this year. This is their one big chance.

Nintendo's been creating artificial demand for their products longer than their competition have been in the gaming business. I'm confident that they're happy as shit that they can't meet demand right now, as it keeps the spotlight on them.

The percent increase is certainly nice, but they're still in a really tough fight to get out of where they are. I dont expect that kind of percentage gain to be consistent enough to take the lead over 360 in December.

360 has already eaten up loads of marketshare at this price point, and can continue to keep Sony on the defensive on the matter. I just dont see how they get out of it, short of putting all the hopes on the backs of a few ultra high end exclusives.

They cant catch up on either price or marketshare in the short term, and I have to wonder how much time they have left to stage a comeback.

Their console is $50 more than the 360 in under 1 year - so I think they've more than made up the pricepoint differential. And they clearly can't make up the marketshare quickly. But you're ultimately saying in this post something I already echoed in the first post I made in this thread.

So there's good news and bad news for Sony. Unless they can turn their sales increase into actual *momentum*, though, they'll be saddled in what I call "pseudo second place" (since people seem to forget that the 360 is not in first place ;)).

[mykevermin]

Price drop/christmas and PS3 is still the worst selling Playstation product. Great job, sony. Meanwhile Nintendo makes more money than god.

Leave it up to you to take a 285% increase in sales compared to a 110% increase and 89% increase for the others and, as you have consistently done for the past year, prematurely declared Sony dead.

I hope you aren't a grave digger for a living.

[usickenme]

Is there any site that lists all previous NPD monthly sales data?

.

http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=11067

[dpatel]

Some people expected the PS3 to place in higher than 3rd this month, knowing it is the most expensive console with the least games? I'm not really surprised at the PS3s numbers. They definitely need to step it up in the U.S, as they won't be able to rely on Europe JPN sales to hold them up for too long. I guess what is more important is early 08 sales. If PS3 slumps back down to its 100K a month sales, then it's in trouble. The PS3 coming in 3rd this xmas was expecting for months now.

Also, the Wii being popular has been known for a while, but I am still amazed each time I see the sales numbers.

[Dr Mario Kart]

You're putting an awful lot of stock into that whole % increase thing. That stat isnt relevant by itself, it needs to be accompanied by baseline figures and where they are now. It very nearly counts AGAINST them when you see how much of an increase they had to gather to ONLY trail by what they are, but as dpatel points out, it really hinges on the subsequent months to see how much of this momentum is maintained.

Quality software getting murdered is discouraging too. I recognize the inherent quality in Uncharted and Ratchet & Clank, despite being in genres I dont personally care for.

One thing I have to say, UBISOFT knows how to market their games.

[mykevermin]

You're putting an awful lot of stock into that whole % increase thing.

Hey, lookie maw! It's a red herring!

You know what? Go back and read all of my posts. Pretty much everything below here is something I've addressed already, and even quoted for you to see how I made mention of it even BEFORE you brought it up in the first place, ponch.

That stat isnt relevant by itself, it needs to be accompanied by baseline figures and where they are now. It very nearly counts AGAINST them when you see how much of an increase they had to gather to ONLY trail by what they are, but as dpatel points out, it really hinges on the subsequent months to see how much of this momentum is maintained.

[Dr Mario Kart]

Luckily for Sony, Europe is Sony-land.
You hear this a lot, but European numbers are tricky. It looks like a mixed bag to me, but some countries are certainly Sony-land. The UK is the biggest market and I think, and it is not.

UK - 11/22/07 (http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2007...rss&feed=media)

Wii - 1.19 M
360 - 1.55 M
PS3 - 450K
Spain - 11/10/07 (http://www.meristation.com/v3/des_ar...=art&c=1&pos=0)

NDS: 1.764.000
PSP: 1.292.000
Wii: 244.000
PS3: 218.000
360: 149.000
France (numbers are a mess)

Source - Nintendo
Link - http://www.gamekult.com/articles/A0000063117/
Date 10/12/2007

Wii - 1,000,000

Source - Microsoft
Date - 07/12/2007

Link - http://www.jeux-france.com/news23083...en-france.html (http://www.jeux-france.com/news23083_500000-xbox-360-vendues-en-france.html)

360 - 500,000

Source - Sony

Link - http://www.gamekult.com/articles/A0000062510/
Date - 12/11/2007

PS3 - 100K sold since 12th Oct
Germany

Source - GFK germany

Link - http://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/99497

Numbers for october 2007:
PS3 37,000
Wii 28,000
Xbox360 12,000

LTD October 2007:
Wii 389,000
Xbox360 328,000
PS3 172,000
Italy

Source - [GFK Italia]
Date - 30th September 2007

Link - http://www.mondoxbox.com/news/10761/...settembre.html (http://www.mondoxbox.com/news/10761/vendite-hardware-in-italia-per-il-mese-di-settembre.html)

PS2: 4.969.000
X360: 267.000
PS3: 150.000
WII: 129.000

DS: 1.434.500
PSP: 883.000

Portugal

Source - Various

Link - http://dn.sapo.pt/2007/07/06/dnbolsa...o_adultos.html (http://dn.sapo.pt/2007/07/06/dnbolsa/quem_ganha_este_jogo_adultos.html)

- Sony has sold 20,000 PS3's in Portugal since launch (2007-03-23). That's 20x PS1 and 4x PS2 for the same period. Lifetime sales for the PS2 are 750,000.
- According to Sony, PS2+PS3 accounts for a 92% quota of the portuguese home console market.
- Sony wants to sell a total of 75,000 PS3's until the end of 2007.
- Nintendo has sold 17,000 Wii's (10,000 in 2006, 7,000 in 2007). For comparison, lifetime sales for the Gamecube are 60,000-70,000.
- DS lifetime sales are 90,000.
- Microsoft won't release national sales numbers.
Austria

Source - German media control via Sony
Link - http://futurezone.orf.at/produkte/stories/242166/
Date - 30/11/07

Xbox 360: 47.000
Wii: 40.000
PS3: 34.000

[Blitz]

Myke are you just being smart or do you honestly believe Nintendo wants to sell less units and create "artificial demand" by holding stock? If the released another 2 million in the US right now I would almost bet they would be gone by the 25th.

It honestly makes no sense for them to hold back stock this year. This is their one big chance.


Exactly. Being as hot as they are right now holding back stock would be pretty stupid. They gain nothing from it. The spotlight is already on them and will be for the foreseeable future.

I have no doubt that if they brought out another 2 million they would all sell by the 25th.

[007]

Few thoughts...

1. I'm impressed by the PSP numbers. I realize they launched the 'new' model, but still. It's outselling both the PS2 and the PS3. Still decimated by the DS (but what isn't?), but still surprising.

2. I guess the question is, would Mario Galaxy have outsold COD4 if COD4 didn't have the extra week of release? Not a big deal, since both games serve the sales.

3. Ok... look at the software sales... am I the only person that loves the fact that they refer to 'Wii Play' and simply 'Play', so they don't have to release a report that says 'Wii Wii Play'?

Though, I suppose any system with a game like that *would* sell like gangbusters. ;)

[PyroGamer]

Luckily for Sony, Europe is Sony-land.
Not as far as I know. I know the 360 has been strongest in the UK, and I know PS3 has been struggling in France.

Germany, France, and the UK have the largest economies there, but Germany is pretty much anti-videogame so I don't know how much they matter, and I don't know what the numbers are like there anyways so...

But either way, the fact is Europe's numbers are all over the place, but anything BUT "Sony Land."

There is no "Sony land", not even Japan is "Sony Land". And if you realize what that's saying... that right there is a big fucking bag of disappointment to drop on Sony.

[mykevermin]

Exactly. Being as hot as they are right now holding back stock would be pretty stupid. They gain nothing from it. The spotlight is already on them and will be for the foreseeable future.

I have no doubt that if they brought out another 2 million they would all sell by the 25th.

:lol: That's not the point. The "free" (well, it costs money in terms of withheld sales) marketing they get from the number of people frantically chasing around the country looking for a Wii far outweighs the sales they'd get.

It's quite functional to have a small, consistent, feverish throng of Wii-hunters. It's a careful line to tread, of course - you can't have too many or people won't bite, and you have to be sure to consistently and accurately get stock to stores in order to convince people that the prospect of getting a Wii is within their grasp (compared with the probability of getting, say, a Hannah Montana concert ticket before the scalpers do).

I stop in a local GS for a minute or two several times a week. Every day this week I've seen 8-12+ parents, sitting on the floor, on their cell phones, lookin' bored and pensive (all at once!)...and I don't need to ask the counter people what they're waiting on. It isn't the PS3. It isn't the 360.

As a matter of fact, the GS employees are too busy on the phones telling people calling in that they don't have any Wiiis, they don't know when they'll get any in, and they don't know how many they'll get in next time.

It's *brilliant* marketing, and something Nintendo has done since the early days of the NES. What makes you think that they'd stop now?

In short, let me ask you this in the form of a question: what benefit does Nintendo stand to gain from having very single customer satisfied by supplying them with a Wii, instead of having them pulling their hair out, searching every store high and low, mumbling something about "getting Judy and Johnny ona'them Wheeze for Christmas"? It's viral marketing at its finest.

[dmaul1114]

There's no designed shortage. The N64 and Gamecube didn't sell well, no one, Nintendo included, thought the Wii would sell as well as it has.

Thus they didn't start with a production capacity to manufacture enough consoles to meet this demand.

Expanding production capability is tough too, as they'd have to shell out a lot of money to get more assembly lines up and running, and these would be lines they won't need when demand finally slows down as the market gets saturated.

They are missing out on sales now buy not getting enough out there, but apparently they've done the math and it's better for their bottom line to just keep supply at the current level and take longer to catch up to the demand than to open up more factories to get more consoles our their faster.

I don't think any of it has to do with wanting the hype of being sold out all the time. That may play some small role, but I don't see it being the main reason that the Wii is hard to find.


In short, let me ask you this in the form of a question: what benefit does Nintendo stand to gain from having very single customer satisfied by supplying them with a Wii, instead of having them pulling their hair out, searching every store high and low, mumbling something about "getting Judy and Johnny ona'them Wheeze for Christmas"? It's viral marketing at its finest.

That can also be a negative as people can just say fuck it and not buy one at all and/or buy a different console. Not so much the parents who will do anything to get their spoiled brats what they want, but others thinking of buying one for themselves etc.

It is some viral marketing which helps, but it can backfire sometimes.

And I'd think they'd rather have more consoles in homes, where people are buying $50 games (which is where they really make their money) vs getting free viral marketing.

[Dr Mario Kart]

They believe the shortage is about to be up, in which case it would be a waste to get more factories running.

If it was such a brilliant strategy, you'd think someone wouldve tried having a shortage clear into year 2 before. This situation is vastly different than anything that has come before.

Also, I believe the artificial shortage theory is 100% incompatible with the following chart.

http://img511.imageshack.us/img511/7558/shipmentcomparephppg0.png

We know what their damn production numbers are, unless they are also lying to stock holders. The sell through rate just doesnt mesh.

[Dr Mario Kart]

I have to say that I dont like the strategy though. Too conservative. I would have them spend however many millions it is to get another factory up and damn the cost. You know how important I think marketshare is.

[PyroGamer]

mykevermin, you're simply wrong. If Nintendo was intentionally creating an artificial shortage, they wouldn't have sold so many millions of Wii's.

You honestly think you can get numbers like what we've been consistantly seeing with the Wii WITHOUT constantly being out-of-stock? The fucking 360 could barely keep up with it's stock for four or five months, and it didn't have half as many sales as the Wii.

You're simply wrong, myke, but more importantly: you have absolutely no evidence besides your own hunches to back you up.

Good post, DMK, finally some actual evidence instead of useless hunches.

[mykevermin]

We know what their damn production numbers are, unless they are also lying to stock holders. The sell through rate just doesnt mesh.

The production numbers are 1 million per month, no?

The first month they've come close to sales matching their output is November of this year. Where have all the residual consoles gone?

Moreover, since they've publicly decided not to invest in another production facility (which I'll disagree with you and say is a good idea since it helps maintain their profitability - though I can see why you'd say it's too conservative), I don't think we should expect to see such a substantial shift in the number manufactured per month; a modest increase, sure, but nothing like a doubling of the number.

Pyro: put your pom poms down while grown ups are talking.

[Apossum]

Yep, they're holding them back....but only to give them to people in January via the new fangled Wii raincheck program:
http://blog.wired.com/games/2007/12/nintendo-announ.html

[Dr Mario Kart]

It was a million for a while I think, but it recently was bumped up to 1.8 million a month. The U.S. seems to get about half, and the rest goes to other regions, many of which we dont get good sales data on.

To me, sell through isnt even about the benefit to the consumer. I want the raw marketshare numbers to be high because it becomes an increasing temptation to some developers.

[mykevermin]

It was a million for a while I think, but it recently was bumped up to 1.8 million a month. The U.S. seems to get about half, and the rest goes to other regions, many of which we dont get good sales data on.

Which means there would be more residual consoles than even I would have expected.

Don't get me wrong: I don't think they're hiding warehouses full of millions of consoles. The conscious decision to not ramp up production is part of the manufactured demand, and I think that they do throttle the number of consoles sent to each region just to meet demand. If they are producing minimum 1 million consoles per month, and the most liberal estimates have them selling 14-15 million consoles since launch, they're selling just shy of what they have been able to manufacture - but the numbers still suggest there is some deliberate withholding unless (1) even the most liberal estimates are underestimating the Wii's sales or (2) Nintendo began producing the consoles right back in early November 2006 (which we know they've been making them since July 2006, I believe).

To me, sell through isnt even about the benefit to the consumer. I want the raw marketshare numbers to be high because it becomes an increasing temptation to some developers.

ok.

[dmaul1114]

The production numbers are 1 million per month, no?

The first month they've come close to sales matching their output is November of this year. Where have all the residual consoles gone?


Keep in mind NPD numbers are just for US sales aren't they? While the production numbers are total Wiis produced and shipped around the globe.

They may well be selling 1 million plus per month worldwide. Would make sense as the chart seemed to show around 14 million produced thus far, and that's about what the latest world wide sales figures put the total to date Wii sales at last I saw.

[mykevermin]

The chart was sales, not production.

Since the Wii has been manufactured for around 18 months, at a rough rate of 1 million minimum per month, I'm not buyin' it.

None of this (whether you do or don't believe Nintendo is throttling the supply), of course, changes that they have chosen to not satisfy demand by adding a production facility.

[dmaul1114]

True, but like I said, it probably would cost them more to add a production facility, than they are loosing by not satisfying demand now.

IMO, that's a more feasible reason for why they haven't met demand, rather than them artificially holding back producing, or stock piling consoles, to get viral marketing from all the shortage hype.

I'm with DMK (first, and probably only time) in that it would be best for them to get more consoles out if they could, as market share is huge in getting third party developers on board.

If they don't, it's going to continue to be a console with a low attach rate, as it's going to have a hard time catching on with mainstream gamers, and will be bought more by Nintendo fans and casual gamers, the latter group who will buy few games aside from stuff like Wii Fit and some party games (and are responsible for the low attach rate on the Wii thus far--last I saw anyway).

[Kaijufan]

The chart was sales, not production.

Since the Wii has been manufactured for around 18 months, at a rough rate of 1 million minimum per month, I'm not buyin' it.

None of this (whether you do or don't believe Nintendo is throttling the supply), of course, changes that they have chosen to not satisfy demand by adding a production facility.
Are you kidding? Nintendo's smart for not building another production facility. Production facilities cost millions and take months to build, and Nintendo has no idea how long the current demand for the Wii will last, so they could potentially build a new one only to have Wii sales go down, and have the new facility sit empty because they no longer need it.
If I was Iwata right now with 1.8 million consoles a month still selling out worldwide I wouldn't build another facility. Way too risky, with the huge potential for a major loss.