Birdmen and the Casual Fallacy

[botticus]

Note: This is a very long article. You would be wise to refrain from commenting on it before reading it in its entirety. Credit to GAF for the link.

http://malstrom.50webs.com/birdman.html

Centuries ago, men attempted to fly by putting wings on their arms and flapping really hard. Logically, in their minds, it should have worked. Birds fly. Birds have wings. Therefore, having wings should mean man will fly.

The gentlemen, puffed with pride, failed every time. Had they examined the nature of flight, as opposed to the nature of birds, they would have realized the concept of lift (as Bernoulli did). One must examine the physics of the flight rather than putting feathers on one’s arms in imitation of birds. The descendants of these birdmen are with us today. In the gaming industry, they represent some of the highest gaming executives and esteemed analysts.

Nintendo is flying high. Rather than examine the nature of this flight, the birdmen are mesmerized by the feathers. The analysts and executives do not see the concepts of disruption and don’t even understand the Blue Ocean principles (though they think they do). The feathers they see on Nintendo’s ascent are casual games. Therefore, they surmise, if they make casual games then they will be flying high with Nintendo.

[Javery]

That's one of the best articles on gaming I've read in a long time. Thanks for the link. I still think I hate the Wii though.

EDIT: I love this chart because it's so true and not just in regards to gaming:

http://i242.photobucket.com/albums/ff13/Malstrom_photo/imperfectionscurve.jpg

[Apossum]

my fucking god it's "Mein Kampf" for Nintendo fans! (the whole site, not just the one article.) very fascinating and a little scary to me (a "hardcore" gamer) that Wii fans now have this juggernaut to fall back on.

"fuck your Wii fit"

"get out of my face you next gen luddite, this is the new gen, and your favorite company doesn't get it. he's a silly little bird man flapping his wings and trying to comprehend why my Wii Fit is drowning the hardcore."

[daroga]

Lengthy, but pretty darn dead-on. It is interesting to be forced to take a step back and look at a some trends since the DS hit and see that Nintendo isn't focusing on one level, but moving up, while bringing the Wii Sports newbies along for the ride. Kart is probably the best example of this. Play with the wheel, simple and fun. Play with the nunchuk and remote, deep and fun. Get good with the wheel, deep and fun.

Thanks for the link bott.

I'm really interested to see what the next go-round for hardware will look like from every company.

[Strell]

EDIT: I love this chart because it's so true and not just in regards to gaming:
*img*

Reminds me of Demetri Martin:
http://www.swivel.com/graphs/image/8096329

"At some point, I don't care how cute you are - I don't want to hear about your fucking cat."

Neat link, Botty Bolotty. I'll check it later.

[Apossum]

I'm really interested to see what the next go-round for hardware will look like from every company.


Sony -- I'm not sure

Microsoft -- The Happy Fun Box. A severely underpowered system with some misshapen piece of plastic with an accelerometer in it for a controller, the console will be shaped like a smiley face (which the whole family can love), and the games will all be Carnival Games knock offs and of course, Blinx Galaxy.

'cause MS' attempts at imitation are usually hilarious and derivative.

[Strell]

the console will be shaped like a smiley face (which the whole family can love)


So they're going to make Bob: The Console?


http://img237.imageshack.us/img237/9201/bobfrontlargero7.jpg


(Above is picture in case anyone is confused by my comment, but it's huge so I don't want it to ruin the thread. Well, no more than an off topic comment can do. .... Goodness. 8 megs of memory required. I think my microwave could run Microsoft Bob.)

Sadly, I'd have to get one on principle alone.

Edit: Man. It says so right there that it's easy software everyone will use. Microsoft was into that Blue Ocean ish waaaaaaaaay before Nintendo.

[botticus]

Sony -- I'm not sure

Microsoft -- The Happy Fun Box. A severely underpowered system with some misshapen piece of plastic with an accelerometer in it for a controller, the console will be shaped like a smiley face (which the whole family can love), and the games will all be Carnival Games knock offs and of course, Blinx Galaxy.

'cause MS' attempts at imitation are usually hilarious and derivative.
If MS does come out with a motion controller soon, they're going to be the embodiment of this article as much as Ubisoft or any of the software publishers. Kinda late to be chasing after the market Nintendo has already gained; they should be working on all those "bridge" games (or console in their case) to help bring those millions upmarket.

[Javery]

LOL: http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4498&Itemid=2&limit=1&limitstart=0

Some funny links on that site too...

[trq]

That article is incredibly astute at points.

'cause MS' attempts at imitation are usually hilarious and derivative. If MS does come out with a motion controller soon, they're going to be the embodiment of this article as much as Ubisoft or any of the software publishers.

Actually, I just kept thinking about the sixaxis as I was reading ...

[botticus]

That article is incredibly astute at points.



Actually, I just kept thinking about the sixaxis as I was reading ...
It works, but it's such an offhanded attempt, that it didn't really take away from them much, other than possibly making some games crappier than they should have been.

Funding and supporting an entirely separate peripheral on the other hand has a lot more potential for loss.

[willardhaven]

Great article...

I can't wait to see what the next generation is like. PS3 and Xbox 360 are too "upper tier" for me, and the Wii has not travelled high enough yet (based on the article).

[dmaul1114]

I hate the motion control, casual game stuff, but the early point in the article is why I'm not to worried about it.

Most of the casual rip off games aren't selling, it's really just the Nintendo stuff selling well. So I'm pretty confident the PS4 and X-box whatever aren't going to go down that casual gamer road next gen. They'll continue to push graphics and traditional controls IMO with maybe a little waggle tagged on here and there.

[trq]

It works, but it's such an offhanded attempt, that it didn't really take away from them much, other than possibly making some games crappier than they should have been.

Funding and supporting an entirely separate peripheral on the other hand has a lot more potential for loss.

Good point; as underwhelming as it is, at least the sixaxis is in the box. Even the most accepted peripheral only ever gets out to a fraction of the userbase, with proportionate support and success.

[botticus]

I hate the motion control, casual game stuff, but the early point in the article is why I'm not to worried about it.

Most of the casual rip off games aren't selling, it's really just the Nintendo stuff selling well. So I'm pretty confident the PS4 and X-box whatever aren't going to go down that casual gamer road next gen. They'll continue to push graphics and traditional controls IMO with maybe a little waggle tagged on here and there.That all assumes that by the end of this generation that the userbase the Wii gained by way of its casual titles isn't suddenly buying up Nintendo's (and others', if they actually release any) core titles at a higher rate than that of the HD consoles. I don't really think that will happen unless this gen goes on for some time, but it's certainly a possibility.

Consider that in the US market, even with all the horrendous support, Wii third party sales were comparable to 360 third party sales for the first year and a half of their respective existences. Imagine if there were good games!

Edit: And at the same time, if Nintendo had success in the upmarketing of their consumers, that could have some run-off success for their competitors next generation as well. People will certainly have a choice to move away from Nintendo should the Wii2, 720, and PS4 be out at the same time. But clearly Nintendo would have the advantage of having raised another generation of gamers on Mario and company.

[kainzero]

I don't think I've ever found a clear distinction between casual and hardcore, nor is there a distinction we can all totally and completely agree on.

Without this, I can't really comment on the article. I can go so many ways just with that distinction...

[daroga]

I don't think I've ever found a clear distinction between casual and hardcore, nor is there a distinction we can all totally and completely agree on.

Without this, I can't really comment on the article. I can go so many ways just with that distinction...The article throws away those terms near the start...

[Apossum]

If MS does come out with a motion controller soon, they're going to be the embodiment of this article as much as Ubisoft or any of the software publishers. Kinda late to be chasing after the market Nintendo has already gained; they should be working on all those "bridge" games (or console in their case) to help bring those millions upmarket.

Oh, they will. MS is your father trying to act "with the times," but failing miserably and unknowingly embarrassing the hell out of himself. I think the Xbox, 360, and Zune are all examples of this--designs derivative of what MS perceived to be "cool" but executed in corny ways. More realistically than my example, they'll try and cram everything into the new system--waggle, HD, Blu-ray, etc. etc.

I think the next gen has potential to be a huge clusterfuck.

Btw, do you have a link to the gaf thread this was posted in?

[botticus]

Oh, they will. MS is your father trying to act "with the times," but failing miserably and unknowingly embarrassing the hell out of himself. I think the Xbox, 360, and Zune are all examples of this--designs derivative of what MS perceived to be "cool" but executed in corny ways. More realistically than my example, they'll try and cram everything into the new system--waggle, HD, Blu-ray, etc. etc.

I think the next gen has potential to be a huge clusterfuck.

Btw, do you have a link to the gaf thread this was posted in?It had its own thread at some point but was locked quickly, it was brought up in the Babies Party thread.