Obama Gaining in Battleground States (Poll Discussion thread) [Mobile/Archive]

dmaul1114

10-01-2008, 06:52 PM

Wasn't sure which thread to post this in, so figured I might as well start one for discussing Polls.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/01/battleground.polls/?iref=mpstoryview

He's up:

51-47 Florida and 5 pts up there in CCN's poll of polls
54-43 in Minnesota
49-48 in Missouri
51-47 in Nevada
53-44 in Virginia (though another poll they mention has McCain up 3)

Hard to make much out of polls, but I hope these trends keep up until Nov. 4th!

willardhaven

10-01-2008, 07:10 PM

According to CNN the polls have a 4% margin of error.

So basically it's anyone's game.

FloodsAreUponUS

10-01-2008, 07:12 PM

I honestly doubt the virginia thing.

McCain signs are fucking everywhere.

dmaul1114

10-01-2008, 07:19 PM

According to CNN the polls have a 4% margin of error.

So basically it's anyone's game.

Yep, but still good to see him trending upward. McCain had been trending up since the convention/tabbing Palin. So at least it's strongly reversing.

But no doubt it's going to be a close election. May not be 2000 or 2004 again, but it'll be a dog fight in these battle ground states. I think Obama gets the majority of them and wins by more than Bush did either time.

RAMSTORIA

10-01-2008, 07:44 PM

i think me and myke both started threads generally about polls, they die down and get lost in the shuffle

SpazX

10-01-2008, 07:47 PM

I don't really follow CNN for that stuff, www.realclearpolitics.com (http://www.realclearpolitics.com) has a nice map and good tracking (though they are usually updated later), and also www.electoral-vote.com (http://www.electoral-vote.com) does a good job and www.fivethirtyeight.com (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com) is pretty good too.

Right now though he's doing awesome compared to a few weeks ago. The convention bump has faded and he has even gone up compared to right before the conventions. Obama is leading (though barely) in every single state that wasn't already solid Republican and also VA and NC (usually not much of a problem for Republicans).

If the election went by the current poll average Obama would win 353 - 185, which is almost at Clinton levels.

It's still not close enough to the election, and many of the leads are very small, but McCain has quite the uphill battle.

EDIT: Going by the same criteria I used in the other poll thread for each candidates "very best hopes" - giving the states each one is winning by less than 3% to the other candidate - McCain couldn't even win anymore.

McCain's best hope would be losing to Obama 296 - 242
If you gave him Florida, which RCP currently has at exactly 3%, his best hope would be the 269 - 269 tie.
Obama's best hope now has gone up to winning 375 - 163

willardhaven

10-01-2008, 09:03 PM

I only wish Nader or some decent third-party candidate could put up a fight.

Dead of Knight

10-01-2008, 09:11 PM

SpazX

10-01-2008, 09:14 PM

Dead of Knight

10-01-2008, 09:20 PM

If it comes down to racist rednecks I don't think he can win VA either, but the northern parts of VA and the younger people in VA don't seem as bad, so there seems to be a chance.

The big cities in Ohio (Cincy, Cleveland, and Columbus) are not bad either, and there are lots of of the demographics that are sure to vote for Obama in all three. However, the rest of the state is nearly all redneck, and I am very worried about polling in the cities, especially in the poorer districts. I will also bet money that they will have troubles with voting in the three big Ohio cities, with not enough booths for the turnout. This is because there'll be 15 booths in a small district in redneck rural Ohio while they'll be 2 in a "poor" (ie black) Columbus district with lots of Obama voters. I'm not making this up either. Just wait.

homeland

10-01-2008, 09:27 PM

Finally my vote will count. Just moved to N.C and now its tied!! Grew up in Mass, unless it was for governor its always going Blue.

thrustbucket

10-01-2008, 09:45 PM

I've always said Obama will win. And I actually will not be surprised at a landslide.

Dead of Knight

10-01-2008, 09:51 PM

I've always said Obama will win. And I actually will not be surprised at a landslide.

The current numbers are extremely promising, and are getting my hopes up. However, the "hidden" yet rampant racism in this country makes me believe that 1. A lot of people are saying they'll vote for Obama but won't because they're racist but just don't want anyone to know except for when they go to the polls and vote and 2. Racist people who wouldn't normally vote will come out in DROVES to keep a "******" out of the White House. I'm being quite cynical, but I don't think it's too far from the truth.

Edit: Also, I know I've come off as extremely pro-Obama in recent posts. It's not really that I'm pro-Obama, it's more like anti-McCain/Palin. I have such an utter hatred of these clowns that I'm pretty much ignoring all the stupid shit Obama and Biden have done in the past and present to make sure McCain/Palin don't get elected.

camoor

10-01-2008, 10:01 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_G5HP11hvo

willardhaven

10-01-2008, 10:06 PM

Although I feel like voting is useless and that the government is in bed with the corporate sphere, the naive part of me hopes Obama could do something.

That said I still don't know if I am going to vote for Obama or Nader. I mean, it could be a historic election day and image is everything right?

thrustbucket

10-01-2008, 10:07 PM

Edit: Also, I know I've come off as extremely pro-Obama in recent posts. It's not really that I'm pro-Obama, it's more like anti-McCain/Palin. I have such an utter hatred of these clowns that I'm pretty much ignoring all the stupid shit Obama and Biden have done in the past and present to make sure McCain/Palin don't get elected.

Well that's pretty much how I feel about both candidates/parties right now. I find it impossible not to blame both of them for the direction this country has gone in not just the past 8, but the past 80 years.

So I see myself more as an outside observer to all this, for entertainment. Hoping some day a third party or independent candidate is viable.

camoor

10-01-2008, 10:07 PM

If it comes down to racist rednecks I don't think he can win VA either, but the northern parts of VA and the younger people in VA don't seem as bad, so there seems to be a chance.

We aren't so bad!

You wouldn't believe the growth in Nova right outside DC

And here in Nova we laugh at McCain/Palin.

Plus SE VA (Newport News etc) is a complicated beast - I wouldn't be surprised if the bad economy and stoploss policies are starting to take a toll on the most stalwart Republican navy families.

willardhaven

10-01-2008, 10:09 PM

So I see myself more as an outside observer to all this, for entertainment. Hoping some day a third party or independent candidate is viable.

I agree, but living in the U.S. kind of screws that thinking up for me.

Ikohn4ever

10-01-2008, 10:13 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_G5HP11hvo

the best part is the only person raising their hand for McCain is the reporter

Dead of Knight

10-01-2008, 11:11 PM

Well that's pretty much how I feel about both candidates/parties right now. I find it impossible not to blame both of them for the direction this country has gone in not just the past 8, but the past 80 years.

So I see myself more as an outside observer to all this, for entertainment. Hoping some day a third party or independent candidate is viable.

Well both parties are extremely fucked up, but I'm a liberal at heart, so I DO agree with some things Obama has on plate. I agree with pretty much nothing McCain has on plate. So it's an obvious choice for me. I think you tend to lean more towards the conservative or libertarian side (I'm just guessing from your posts, don't kill me if I'm wrong), so it's definitely tough for you to pick a choice at all.

camoor

10-01-2008, 11:35 PM

the best part is the only person raising their hand for McCain is the reporter

Also that guy in the back... before his wife hits him and pulls his hand down :lol:

bigdaddy

10-01-2008, 11:35 PM

thrustbucket

10-01-2008, 11:43 PM

Well both parties are extremely fucked up, but I'm a liberal at heart, so I DO agree with some things Obama has on plate. I agree with pretty much nothing McCain has on plate. So it's an obvious choice for me. I think you tend to lean more towards the conservative or libertarian side (I'm just guessing from your posts, don't kill me if I'm wrong), so it's definitely tough for you to pick a choice at all.

Nah, you aren't wrong in you're assessment. Although I like to think of myself as more libertarian than conservative, since I tend to have a rather open mind about moral issues and I'm all about constant change, if it's the right kind.

Dead of Knight

10-01-2008, 11:49 PM

I'd say that about most of the country.

On November 3rd Obama will have a huge ass lead, I say 10 plus points. On November 4th Obama will lose to McCain and we are fucked. This country is too god damn dumb and ignorant to vote for someone who looks a little different.

I agree 100% on this.

freakyzeeky

10-02-2008, 01:45 AM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_G5HP11hvo

Hahaha, I died laughing when I saw that couple during the 'raise your hand for McCain' part :lol:

MSI Magus

10-02-2008, 09:39 AM

I know they aren't mentioned in the OP, but there's no way Obama will win Ohio. No fucking way. I would bet money on it. Lots of money. There are too many ignorant idiots and racist rednecks here. I don't think a lot of people realize how stupid most Ohioans are. Ohio is NOT a battleground state in this election.

I live here in Ohio(want to hook up some time cutey!)and im optimistic. Iv seen about 10 Obama signs and only a single McCain sign. The single McCain sign was also posted in a small farm community called Oak Harbor.....I dont think their even a city yet. So to me that's a good sign. It was also really funny that the one McCain sign was posted next to a tree almost hidden behind it. It was almost like the person was embarrassed to have it. My fiancees whole family is backing Obama(though grudgingly)and most of their friends iv talked to at parties are as well. Thats as small and rural as it gets.

Also the town I live in where iv seen most of the signs is called Rossford. Its a pretty small town boarding Toledo thats made up of pretty much all white people.

evanft

10-02-2008, 10:22 AM

According to CNN the polls have a 4% margin of error.

So basically it's anyone's game.

Wellll..... (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error)

A 4% margin of error does not mean that there is an equal chance of the actual numbers being 4% different in either direction as there is of the polls being right on the money. Rather, it provides a likely range for the true number, with the most likely true number being right around the quoted percentage. So, if a poll says 54-46 with 4% MOE, it does not mean that there is a good chance the actual numbers are 50-50. It's much more likely that they are 53-47 or 55-45.

fatherofcaitlyn

10-02-2008, 11:19 AM

I can't remember my statistics class completely.

Is the margin of error in these type of polls stating the "true" numbers are within 4% of the static numbers 67%,97% or 99.5% of the time?

willardhaven

10-02-2008, 11:53 AM

Wellll..... (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error)

A 4% margin of error does not mean that there is an equal chance of the actual numbers being 4% different in either direction as there is of the polls being right on the money. Rather, it provides a likely range for the true number, with the most likely true number being right around the quoted percentage. So, if a poll says 54-46 with 4% MOE, it does not mean that there is a good chance the actual numbers are 50-50. It's much more likely that they are 53-47 or 55-45.

I understand that, but I assume the worst when it comes to the major news networks. I figure they doctor the percentages and slap the 4% margin on there to make it look more entertaining.

depascal22

10-02-2008, 12:02 PM

I've said this before and will say it again. The only poll that really matters will be the one on Election Day. The polls only feed into America's obsession with sticking with the herd. Everyone should just say, "Every state is 50/50. Vote how you want to vote and we'll count them up and tell you who won." I guess I'm just tired of national elections that ignore half of the nation. Damn the electoral college.

I know campaigns have to use these polls to divvy up funds for advertising and all that but I'm sure people in California, New York, and Texas would like to see as much as an ad for either candidate. It's ridiculous that the three biggest states are out of play since they're already red or blue. This system is a joke.

EDIT -- I spent three months in Dayton and found it to be a pretty progressive town. It's probably that way because it's a college town but I'd have to put it in the Columbus, Cleveland, Cincy camp of liberal towns in Ohio. If anything, Cincinnati is the most redneck and backward.

mykevermin

10-02-2008, 12:13 PM

I can't remember my statistics class completely.

Is the margin of error in these type of polls stating the "true" numbers are within 4% of the static numbers 67%,97% or 99.5% of the time?

95, not 97. ;)

I dunno how many standard deviations they use. With 1000+/- on the average survey, it may be 3 s.d.s (99.5%).

But the trends fluctuate over time, so who knows how accurate even one point in time may be? Obama was up for a bit, the McCain peaked after the RNCC, and now Obama's back in the lead. What may happen 5 weeks from now isn't really known yet.

willardhaven

10-02-2008, 12:15 PM

Am I paranoid for thinking there will be some tomfoolery as in 2000?

depascal22

10-02-2008, 12:19 PM

What may happen 5 weeks from now isn't really known yet.

So what's the point of following all the polls?

And yes, there will be some serious tomfoolery by BOTH parties. Democrats will pay ghetto ass thugs to vote and Republicans will do everything they can to deny them their right.

mykevermin

10-02-2008, 12:28 PM

So what's the point of following all the polls?

The emotional turmoil of ups and downs, like watching a bad movie play out in front of us.

Why do you think people want to watch Biden/Palin? To be *informed*? P'shaw. They want to watch it for the same reason that people watch NASCAR (and I don't mean "left turns," haw haw).

depascal22

10-02-2008, 12:38 PM

But being informed about poll numbers doesn't do anything but make us want to join the herd. It makes the candiate in the lead the "hot" pick. I'd hate for people to vote for anyone just because everyone else is doing it.

EDIT -- Sorry. I misread your post, Myke. So it's just the WWE/NASCAR element of the country that just can't wait to see a wreck.... Hmmm. Interesting.

mykevermin

10-02-2008, 12:49 PM

No, I think it's more than that - EVERYONE wants to see a colossal clusterfuck of a debate. But it's the NASCAR mentality - the race isn't that exciting, but the potential for a monstrous tires-flying-into-the-stands wreck is exciting.

And that's what people think they're going to get.

They're going to be sorely disappointed; the only way that'll happen is if Biden offers a question to Palin and cedes floor time to her.

If he does that, someone needs to tivo that shit for me.

thrustbucket

10-02-2008, 02:11 PM

Am I paranoid for thinking there will be some tomfoolery as in 2000?

Well the people that make the Simpsons (http://www.wjno.com/cc-common/news/sections/newsarticle.html?feed=244038&article=4338967)seem to agree.

The emotional turmoil of ups and downs, like watching a bad movie play out in front of us.

Why do you think people want to watch Biden/Palin? To be *informed*? P'shaw. They want to watch it for the same reason that people watch NASCAR (and I don't mean "left turns," haw haw).

Right. I think it stimulates the same parts of the brain that make so many people watch reality TV. That's all these debates are about, and following the campaign so close accomplishes.

fatherofcaitlyn

10-02-2008, 02:26 PM

Well the people that make the Simpsons (http://www.wjno.com/cc-common/news/sections/newsarticle.html?feed=244038&article=4338967)seem to agree.

That's the Halloween episode. It's hardly canon.

dmaul1114

10-02-2008, 02:27 PM

Right. I think it stimulates the same parts of the brain that make so many people watch reality TV. That's all these debates are about, and following the campaign so close accomplishes.

I think there's some of that with the VP debates, not as much with the Presidential debates.

Undecided people tune in to help make up their mind. I watch just as I like politics and want to see how these guys handle themselves in a debate vs. in rehearsed stump speeches.

Debates show how they do at thinking on the fly, handling pressure in answering questions, dealing with someone who may be antagonizing them. You can learn a lot more about them and how they would lead in debates that you can from speeches etc.

So debates do have a use in deciding who do vote for for undecided voters IMO. The VP doesn't usually factor in much, so I'd agree there is the NASCAR phenomenon with this debate and Palin....especially after her crappy Couric interview.

thrustbucket

10-02-2008, 02:44 PM

I think you can learn a lot more about a person by watching them in a physical fight. :)

lilboo

10-02-2008, 02:46 PM

I predict the lighting fixtures will fall on Palin tonight.
That would be good television.

thrustbucket

10-02-2008, 02:50 PM

Those things are big enough that they would land on both.

Now THAT would be awesome.

lilboo

10-02-2008, 02:53 PM

Well Joe Biden, being that he has super powers, would avoid everything. He would fly to Obama, pick him up and they will have endless ass sex in a bar in Montreal.

MSI Magus

10-02-2008, 04:27 PM

Just got back from a walk again 4 new signs on the upper middle class block in my rural city. This time 1 was finally for McCain but that still makes 3 new Obama signs. Got about a dozen Obama signs on the block now and 1 McCain. Gives me hope that rural Ohio wont be as racist as people are thinking it will.......espeicially given that onle 2 of the houses on this block are owned by young people most are surprisingly as old as McCain ;)

depascal22

10-02-2008, 06:15 PM

bigdaddy

10-02-2008, 06:18 PM

Well the people that make the Simpsons (http://www.wjno.com/cc-common/news/sections/newsarticle.html?feed=244038&article=4338967)seem to agree.

That is awesome! But no making fun of Florida?

dmaul1114

10-06-2008, 09:00 PM

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/06/poll.of.polls/index.html

Obama's up 8% in the latest national poll.

Dead of Knight

10-06-2008, 09:09 PM

I didn't find Ohio to be as racist as other parts of the country. Maybe the southeastern part of the state is bad, but the big cities seemed fine. It's definately not as bad as here in Indiana where everyone is a "foreigner".

It's not blatantly racist like say the South. They're more racist in the way that they say they don't like Obama but can't really give a decent reason because they don't want to admit they're racist. They can't give a decent reason like, say, my boyfriend's reasons, such as voting for FISA and the bailout (he's still voting for him though because he hates McCain like me).

dmaul1114

10-07-2008, 02:04 PM

Obama up 51% to 46% in Ohio in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/06/AR2008100602373.html?hpid=topnews

SpazX

10-07-2008, 02:53 PM

I didn't really think it would be a landslide, but as it gets closer it's looking like it. Unless McCain can somehow gain some ground soon there's no way he could win.

lilboo

10-07-2008, 02:55 PM

This is really surprising. I hope things aren't rigged, like in 04 with W :(

dmaul1114

10-07-2008, 03:46 PM

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1847805,00.html?cnn=yes

Some more battle ground state polls:

North Carolina- tied at 49%
Obama up 3% in Ohio
Obama up 8% in New Hampshire
Obama up 5% in Wisconsin
McCain up 5% in Indiana

The Mana Knight

10-07-2008, 03:53 PM

I heard Virginia and Colorado are relatively close too. I expect Obama to take NH.

Crap, I kind of wished I registered to vote in IN.

Dead of Knight

10-07-2008, 04:17 PM

Obama up 51% to 46% in Ohio in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/06/AR2008100602373.html?hpid=topnews

If he wins Ohio, Florida, and Virginia, I'd call it a miracle only made possible by the fail of Sarah Palin. LOTS of people who were set on McCain before she came into the picture seem to have made a switch lately, wonder why....

dmaul1114

10-07-2008, 04:22 PM

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/key-states/map.html

That may be the best of the electoral maps I've found. Can click on any state and see recent polls and past election results in the table below. The others are similar, this one just has a much cleaner interface.

SpazX

10-08-2008, 10:05 PM

Well, going by my old rules, Obama's best outcome would still be winning 375-163 (and I very much doubt he could possibly win better than that, save for some huge new turnout and the polls being drastically wrong in his favor).

Things have simply gotten much worse for McCain, whose best outcome would be losing 232-306 (including FL and NV, which RCP currently has at exactly 3%). Include the 4%s and he'd lose 261-277. Now that NH has polled pretty solidly in favor of Obama, McCain has to win every single battleground state to win the election.

Ikohn4ever

10-09-2008, 01:53 AM

it would be a real cluster FuCk if they ended up tying. Using the NYtimes map, if McCain gets all the tossups except for CO then it would be a 269-269 tie and if you thought 2000 was bad this would be a zoo. One situation Obama could be elected but with Palin as his VP or McCain and Biden since they are chosen independently by the legislative branch.

freakyzeeky

10-09-2008, 01:55 AM

I hope the Bradley Effect does NOT come in play this November...

bigdaddy

10-09-2008, 04:10 AM

Shouldn't we know that polls mean very little? The 10% "undecided" in ever state could go to McCain like they did in Obama vs Clinton.

dmaul1114

10-13-2008, 12:06 PM

Obama up 53-43 in a new national poll of likely voters.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/12/AR2008101202333.html?hpid=topnews

Also of note from that article, Bush's approval rating is at 23% a new low for him and within 1 point of the all time low which was for Truman in 1952.

thrustbucket

10-13-2008, 02:12 PM

What's the Democratic congress approval rating nowadays?

dmaul1114

10-13-2008, 03:18 PM

What's the Democratic congress approval rating nowadays?

Even worse.

http://www.pollingreport.com/CongJob.htm

People are, and should be, very dissapointed with the entire government at this point. Bush has been terrible, but the congress has done nothing of note since the democrats got the majority.

mykevermin

10-13-2008, 03:21 PM

congressional approval is a historically dismal measure and one that is open to a great deal of interpretation.

I'm not saying it's undeservedly low, but trying to draw conclusions from it is foolish. Dems stand to pick up even MORE seats in both houses this year, which runs contrary to what you might suspect given those approval ratings.

dmaul1114

10-14-2008, 12:25 PM

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/14/poll-update-obama-has-big-leads-in-key-states/

Some new battleground state polls.

Obama up: (first is Quinnipac University poll, second number is CNN poll of polls).

Minnesota: 11 pts/9 pts
Wisconsin: 17 pts/11 pts
Michigan: 16 pts/not mentioned
Colorado: 9 pts/not mentioned

SpazX

10-15-2008, 05:29 PM

I'll bump this for our departed friend dmaul.

Right now it looks like VA is pretty solid. I don't see CO moving over to McCain either.

So my prediction for the election is 338-200 Obama with McCain getting IN, MO, NC, and WV but losing the other battleground states. But I think it could realistically range from 313-225 Obama (at this point FL is looking good for Obama, so I'm giving it to him) to 369-169 Obama (I think McCain has IN, but oddly enough another poll from WV wasn't too strong for him).

In any case, a lot would have to change for McCain to win, so it's just a matter of how one-sided Obama wins. If Obama wins by a huge margin (the 369 possibility or maybe even more) and the Democrats end up with 60 seats in the Senate and nearly 2/3 of the House, I think the Republican party is going to have some major restructuring or a split to try to regain their power. They had Congress under Clinton, but Bush barely won both elections, the Republicans are almost definitely losing this one, and they've lost most of Congress.

FloodsAreUponUS

10-15-2008, 05:37 PM

SpazX

10-15-2008, 05:43 PM

I don't see how Obama has a chance here. All I ever see is McCain signs, and the stupid fucking, "IM VOTING FOR THE CHICK" signs. I should take pictures of the local gunstore that has about 23123123123 signs out front.

VA right?

If VA goes blue, it's not going to be because of the southern or western more conservative parts, it's going to be because of Richmond, the north, and the east, which all are more liberal and have higher populations than the more conservative parts. I've seen plenty of McCain signs around here in southern Chesterfield, but then when I go to Richmond almost everything's Obama (though that was the same for Kerry before...). Before the primaries I saw a ton of Ron Paul shit around here in Chesterfield, so I don't know how much of that support has transferred to McCain or to Obama or a third party.

FloodsAreUponUS

10-15-2008, 05:57 PM

VA right?

If VA goes blue, it's not going to be because of the southern or western more conservative parts, it's going to be because of Richmond, the north, and the east, which all are more liberal and have higher populations than the more conservative parts. I've seen plenty of McCain signs around here in southern Chesterfield, but then when I go to Richmond almost everything's Obama (though that was the same for Kerry before...). Before the primaries I saw a ton of Ron Paul shit around here in Chesterfield, so I don't know how much of that support has transferred to McCain or to Obama or a third party.

Here towards Harrisonburg all I ever see is McCain. I guess you do have a point.

dmaul1114

10-23-2008, 12:18 PM

Obama up to 306 electoral votes in the latest Real Clear Politics electoral map.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

Looking good. He has a small lead (within the margin of error) in most recent North Carolina Polls as well.

evanft

10-23-2008, 01:15 PM

speedracer

10-23-2008, 01:16 PM

People are, and should be, very dissapointed with the entire government at this point. Bush has been terrible, but the congress has done nothing of note since the democrats got the majority.
Except drastically increase the GI Bill. You know, the one the GAO says is the single biggest return on investment program in the entire federal government. $6 back for every $1 paid out. A new direction for the program that insures that veterans can afford any state school, instead of just cutting a check and leaving the vet to make up the difference.

It's probably the best bill to come out of congress in a decade. People seriously need to STFU about the "do nothing Congress". They turned out an awesome bill that kicks ass for vets. They deserve credit.

Oh, and the next time someone points out that McCain is a vet and deserves vet cred, remind them that he (like virtually all Republicans) came out against it until it was obvious it was going to pass, then flipped and supported it so he didn't get busted out for opposing it.

dmaul1114

10-23-2008, 01:19 PM

All Obama has to do is win all the Kerry states plus any one of the following:

Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

Virginia and Iowa aren't battlegrounds any more, as Obama has had and does have a decent lead in both states. So he's going to win, it's merely a question now of by how much. A 300+ EV victory is extremely likely.

Definitely. I think he gets at least 4 of those 7 states.

I think he has Colorado, Virginia and Iowa in the bag. Ohio is looking good, as is Missouri. Florida is a toss up. He's doing well in NC, but I have a hard time seeing him winning that one.

dmaul1114

10-23-2008, 01:22 PM

Except drastically increase the GI Bill. You know, the one the GAO says is the single biggest return on investment program in the entire federal government. $6 back for every $1 paid out. A new direction for the program that insures that veterans can afford any state school, instead of just cutting a check and leaving the vet to make up the difference.

It's probably the best bill to come out of congress in a decade. People seriously need to STFU about the "do nothing Congress". They turned out an awesome bill that kicks ass for vets. They deserve credit.

Oh, and the next time someone points out that McCain is a vet and deserves vet cred, remind them that he (like virtually all Republicans) came out against it until it was obvious it was going to pass, then flipped and supported it so he didn't get busted out for opposing it.

That's definitely a good bill. Does nothing directly for me as I'd never consider the military, but I like it as my brother is in the airforce and hopefully it will benefit him down the road if he wants to go to school.

But it's still only 1 bill, and I'm more dissapointed that they haven't done more to stand up to the Bush administration. Not give into his budgets, put more pressure on Iraq, move to impeach Cheney etc. etc.

speedracer

10-23-2008, 01:26 PM

That's definitely a good bill. Does nothing directly for me as I'd never consider the military, but I like it as my brother is in the airforce and hopefully it will benefit him down the road if he wants to go to school.

But it's still only 1 bill, and I'm more dissapointed that they haven't done more to stand up to the Bush administration. Not give into his budgets, put more pressure on Iraq, move to impeach Cheney etc. etc.
I agree, and hoped for more from these guys. But really, nothing ever gets done during election years and this one's no different really.

The new GI bill was a mega superstar bill. It makes sense from every angle imaginable. I'm satisfied with the Dems in congress for that one. Next year I'll be expecting significantly better.

I'm a fan of http://electoral-vote.com/. They have it right now 337-171 in favor of Obama.

Purple Flames

10-23-2008, 01:37 PM

Definitely. I think he gets at least 4 of those 7 states.

I think he has Colorado, Virginia and Iowa in the bag. Ohio is looking good, as is Missouri. Florida is a toss up. He's doing well in NC, but I have a hard time seeing him winning that one.

As a resident of NC, I'd like to say that here in Guilford County, support for Obama is off the charts, but I do agree that the state is a 50/50 shot for either candidate.

I went down to the old courthouse in downtown Greensboro to vote yesterday, and there was surprisingly large number of young black males (like myself) waiting in line to vote, so the new voter turnout will definitely help Obama's chances of winning the state.

thrustbucket

10-23-2008, 01:59 PM

Not give into his budgets, put more pressure on Iraq, move to impeach Cheney etc. etc.

I'm sure you will likely consider this a dumb question but - impeach Cheney on what grounds? Something to do with Haliburton?

It's not bait to argue, I seriously don't know.

dmaul1114

10-23-2008, 02:06 PM

I'm sure you will likely consider this a dumb question but - impeach Cheney on what grounds? Something to do with Haliburton?

It's not bait to argue, I seriously don't know.

I believe that was the main thrust of it, but it was a while back when the impeach Cheney stuff was in the news so I don't remember the main points too clearly. And I'm too sick and busy to look it up right now. You can google it as well as I, and have more time with being unemployed and all.

gareman

10-23-2008, 02:54 PM

All Obama has to do is win all the Kerry states plus any one of the following:

Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

Virginia and Iowa aren't battlegrounds any more, as Obama has had and does have a decent lead in both states. So he's going to win, it's merely a question now of by how much. A 300+ EV victory is extremely likely.

As a resident of Iowa and traveling all over it this past month (eastern to northern Iowa) I can definitely say that Obama has got Iowa in the palm of his hand.

thrustbucket

10-23-2008, 03:10 PM

I believe that was the main thrust of it, but it was a while back when the impeach Cheney stuff was in the news so I don't remember the main points too clearly. And I'm too sick and busy to look it up right now. You can google it as well as I, and have more time with being unemployed and all.

Ouch! :)

Ok well I did some googling, and I can't find anything that singles out Cheney from Bush. I guess that was the source of my confusion about your comment..... I'm not sure how you could try and impeach Cheney, and not also Bush.

But then again, I've yet to find any real credible reasons to do so. But this might make an interesting thread by itself.

Dead of Knight

10-23-2008, 04:18 PM

All Obama has to do is win all the Kerry states plus any one of the following:

Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

Nice way of putting it. I'm sure he'll win at least one of those.

SpazX

10-23-2008, 04:32 PM

Obama already has Iowa (unless the polls are way off), and probably Colorado and Virginia. The real toss ups I think are Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and kinda North Carolina (and maybe Indiana, but Obama isn't even doing as well there as in North Carolina). Out of those I think Obama has a really good chance of getting Nevada, semi-decent chance of getting Ohio, and the others are too close to predict at all now, though I'd think McCain will get them.

In any case McCain loses (as long as Obama gets Colorado or Virginia), but it'll be interesting to see how all those states go.

RCP now has Montana and North Dakota both as toss ups from recent polls. I don't think Obama will get them, but it will be funny if he does.

dmaul1114

10-23-2008, 04:46 PM

But then again, I've yet to find any real credible reasons to do so. But this might make an interesting thread by itself.

Well, if you can attempt to impeach a president over perjury over a personal sex issue that never should have had him on the stand in the first place I'm sure they could find grounds for having impeachment hearings for Bush/Cheney somewhere. Be it Haliburton, lies about Iraq, illegal wire tapping, suspension of habeus corpus for enemy combatants, torture etc.

Maybe nothing to win an impeachment, but you'd think there'd be enough in there to have a hearing.

depascal22

10-23-2008, 05:03 PM

SpazX

10-23-2008, 05:11 PM

Big Ten Battleground Poll has Obama up 51%-41% in Indiana. I usually hate polls but that really caught my attention. It seems like Obama supporters are coming out of the woodwork around here. There are still a bunch of McCain signs but Obama ones have been popping up like weeds in the last couple weeks.

I'm thinking of that one as an outlier though. I think Indiana will be much closer than it was before (Bush won it in 00 by 15% and 04 by 20%), but I think McCain will get it. Maybe by 4 or 5% max.

speedracer

10-23-2008, 05:34 PM

I think the really crazy thing is going to be Obama's coat tails. Even in a place like here in Texas where we know our Democratic votes don't count in the prez race, people are going berserk voting. It's like the cool thing to do or something. He won't win Texas, but every single other race is being hugely affected by the presidential race. We elect judges here and no Democrat has won any of the 13 seats since 1996. The ads being shown by local Republicans judges are getting more and more hysterical the closer we get as it becomes apparent that people going for Obama are going straight ticket and with Repubs not too excited, it looks like a whole assload of state Repubs are about to be shown the door.

Our senator Cornyn is suddenly nervous and he was up by over 20 points not long ago. Culberson, the local congress scum bag, has absolutely hilarious attack ads going against the Dem (that until recently had no chance). Culberson wouldn't even acknowledge the race a month ago. Suddenly the race is under 10 and tightening every day. Even Nick Lampson is running dead even to hold the congressional seat held by Tom Delay in what is probably the most staunchly partisan Republican place I've ever seen.

bigdaddy

10-23-2008, 05:35 PM

SpazX

10-23-2008, 05:56 PM

Polls are always WAY off!

:roll:

There is only one poll that matters, that's on November 4th. Election fraud and screw ups and alike will make this extremely close.

Obama I think will win the popular vote by 1-3 million, but McCain will win what matters. Hopefully this will lead to a new civil war, because we are over do for one.

2004's polls were pretty good, I assume you didn't follow them? Only the exit polls were really misleading. The only time that polls aren't that accurate are when the states are really close. But that's why there's a margin of error.

dmaul1114

10-23-2008, 06:09 PM

Yeah, the polls are generally pretty good, as long as you look at the sites that average several polls in predicting their maps. Any one poll isn't great as it's just one snap shot in time from one sample of respondents. But average a few polls over the past couple of weeks and you have a pretty good picture of how things are going in that state.

Like SpazX says, they're not of much use in states that are with in the margin of error, but they're overall pretty decent.

The Mana Knight

10-23-2008, 06:10 PM

Big Ten Battleground Poll has Obama up 51%-41% in Indiana. I usually hate polls but that really caught my attention. It seems like Obama supporters are coming out of the woodwork around here. There are still a bunch of McCain signs but Obama ones have been popping up like weeds in the last couple weeks.I think McCain is still barely ahead in Indiana, but Obama did have a rally in Indy today (one reason I didn't go there since I figured it would be busy). I know Sarah Palin is coming to my hometown on Saturday.

Purple Flames

10-23-2008, 06:48 PM

I just though I'd share this with everyone:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSJIORWj4tw

thrustbucket

10-23-2008, 07:08 PM

That was awesome.

I'd have preferred to see less dancing and more comedy and lampooning though. Cool CGI.

dmaul1114

10-23-2008, 08:18 PM

National Polls are pretty useless....but Obama is up 13% (52-39) in the lastest CBS national poll of likely voters.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/23/opinion/polls/main4541781.shtml

dmaul1114

10-24-2008, 11:46 AM

Some new state Polls from the Washington Post today.

Big Ten Battleground Polls:

Obama up 12 in Ohio, 11 in Pennsylvania, 13 in Wisconsin, 22 in Michigan, 10 in Indiana

Quinnipiac University Polls:

Obama up 13 in Pennsylvania, 14 in Ohio, 5 in Florida

thrustbucket

10-24-2008, 02:25 PM

Interesting.

According to the most accurate pollster (http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309635713550536) in 2004 election, Obama 44.8%, McCain 43.7% and Not sure 11.6%.

SpazX

10-25-2008, 04:43 AM

Interesting.

According to the most accurate pollster (http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309635713550536) in 2004 election, Obama 44.8%, McCain 43.7% and Not sure 11.6%.

And then for today it was Obama 45.8% McCain 42.3%, and Not Sure 11.9%. Of course people's opinions generally don't change that much in a single day.

I would never trust just one pollster to be completely accurate, whether or not they were rated the most accurate in 2004. I think the average for the Obama/McCain difference in national polls was around 6-7% today.

dmaul1114

10-25-2008, 09:56 AM

Yeah it's crucial to look at averages and to mainly look at state polls. The national polls are fairly pointless with the electoral college.

But averages are key, I have no confidence that Obama is up as much as he is in some of those single state polls I posted, nor that the national average is that close. I like looking at the polls for fun, but you really have to look at the sites like real-clear politics and electoral-vote.com with their maps where they average several recent polls.

dmaul1114

10-29-2008, 11:46 AM

From some new CNN poll of polls.

Obama has widened his lead in ohio to 6 points, 50-44 and is up 4 points in Florida (49-45).

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/29/polls-show-mccain-not-making-up-ground-in-ohio-2/

The Mana Knight

10-29-2008, 04:14 PM

I'm betting the Republicans are getting desperate because I just got a call from the RNC telling me to vote for John McCain and other crap (attacking Obama). I ended up calling back the number, and left them TWO really nasty messages. Not sure if anyone else is getting the call.

Still, I really hope these calls do not sway opinions in my state and others, since they are battlegrounds.

dmaul1114

10-29-2008, 04:29 PM

This is a decent read on the issue of accuracy of polls. Nothing profound, but does suggest a bit of caution for being overly confident Obama will win easily.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102803675.html?hpid=artslot

mykevermin

10-29-2008, 05:26 PM

And a bit of caution for McCain, since all trends point to old considerations for the likelihood of voting for blacks and young adults are going to be much higher than they're expected to (by virtue of tradition).

The lack of landlines for many households, especially clustered among younger people, makes collection harder as well. Sure, random-digit-dialing doesn't omit people, but where do you place someone? I still have a Kentucky area code, so would they accidentally place me there?

dmaul1114

10-29-2008, 05:55 PM

Sure, random-digit-dialing doesn't omit people, but where do you place someone? I still have a Kentucky area code, so would they accidentally place me there?

That could be solved by just asking people they still live in BLANK state at the start of the survey.

We did something simlar with a street block survey I've been collecting by asking at the outset if they still lived on Street A between Streets B and C at the outset to make sure they're still at the address listed in the reverse directory software we used to pull our sample.

Much easier to deal with just states, but who knows if the political pollsters are checking on that kind of stuff.

dmaul1114

11-03-2008, 11:55 AM

One last update of polls the day before the election:

Real Clear Politics has it at 278 Obama to 132 McCain with 128 Electoral Votes still as toss ups.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

Electoral-Vote.com has it at 353 Obama to 185 McCain.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

For some important state poll of polls from CNN.com:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/11/03/poll-update-mccain-on-defense-in-bush-states/

Obama up 48-46 in Florida
McCain up 47-46 in Indiana
tied at 47 in Missouri
Obama up 49-44 in Nevada
Obama up 53-42 in New Hampshire
Obama up 49-48 in North Carolina
Obama up 49-45 in Ohio
Obama up 51-43 in Pennsylvania
Obama up 50-45 in Virginia

cartman58

11-03-2008, 10:04 PM

Heh. I know a guy who works for the RNC who is in Connecticut this week. It's cracking me up that the list of states that he told me that the RNC were going to blow their wad on are states that they are getting mowed over in right now.

Dead of Knight

11-03-2008, 11:00 PM

cartman58

11-03-2008, 11:07 PM

They're actually putting people in Connecticut this week? Maybe on the orders of Joe Traitorman.

Yes. I'm not very knowledgeable about how the RNC and DNC do it. But he works for Bob Corker here in Chattanooga, TN. They were flying him and a very large group of guys from other Republicans into Connecticut for this last week trying to turn the tide there. So much for that.

Dead of Knight

11-03-2008, 11:15 PM

Trying to turn the tide in Connecticut? What the fuck? That's incredibly laughable. If they had people in CT for that, does that mean they had people in my home state of RI too, trying to "turn the tide?" :rofl::rofl::rofl:

The GOP is dumber than I ever thought possible. What waste of money.

EDIT: For reference, electoral-vote.com has CT in a 21-point lead for Obama.