PS4, Xbox 3.14 (or... VIDEOGAME APOCOLYPSE!!!)

[pumbaa]

Before you read this post... you need to understand that in order to add to this conversation at all... you're going to have to think... perhaps harder than you're used to. If you aren't prepared to be intelligent... go to another thread ;).

So... from my view it seems like the videogame industry is heading in a specific direction. Game production budgets are getting higher and higher. Companies are either closing shop, getting eaten up by EA (I kid... I kid...), or changing drastically from what we once knew them as. The industry seems to be shouting that innovation is going to get harder and harder to come by as videogames mature into larger phenom (and become more and more movie like). A lot of commentary on the subject seems to cast these predictionsin a generally negative light.

My question to you is this.... is this all simply BS? Am I misinterpreting the signals I'm getting? Are the signals there, but all the analysts wrong?

If this predicition is something you can see happening... is this a good thing or a bad thing?

If its a bad thing, what can be done to "fix the system"?

[Scorch]

The industry is crashing.. Defender made a post about this last year, and it's actually quite interesting to go back and read how much stuff came true.. http://www.cheapassgamer.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8363

They're flooding the market with consoles and portable devices with subpar games for the console and portable systems. Some companies have learned that they can make crap, slap a brand name on it, and it'll sell. It's bad. There used to be games that made you think.. games that sucked you in and wouldn't let go.. hell, there still are on the PS2 (Though I haven't played them, I hear nothing but great things about Disgaea, Phantom Brave, SMT:N, etc).. innovation IS hard to come by, and I think Nintendo is testing the waters with the DS. The system sold great in the beginning, but it launched too early. Games are few and far between, but this fall, it will be a force to be reckoned with. EA buying up everything doesn't exactly help the situation, either. It's definately bad, and it'll get worse.. but hell, that might mean better games getting cheaper sooner, so that'll be good.

[drone8888]

Oh,........... you mean like SquarEnix???

It's funny,.. because no matter how horrid Final Fantasy's story is, people will buy it like mad.

With so much untapped power left on these current systems, you'd think that the masses would use their brains and hold off on a new system.
Unfortunately, just like PC video cards, the next batch of consoles will only be the beginning.
Heck,.. I think if one of these companies were to use their marketing bicep, they could easily just have an expandable console, which had upgrades each year.
That way, there wouldn't be the need to buy a whole other system, peripherals, storage, etc...

People eat what they are fed.

If the PS2 was similar to a Shuttle, or Mac Mini,.... people would have still bought it like crazy and we'd all be more into the PC scene. Although most consumers wouldn't make the connection, because of the name PS2.

The human mind is extremely pliable. If something is suggested enough, it'll eventually become appealing. That's how I tried guacamole, and that's how my first girlfriend got into anal.
:)

Anyhow,.... I think Nintendo will be alright this time around.
If it ramped up it's GameCube development in the beginning,... like at launch, they'd have been far ahead of where they are today. If they had developers designing online titles for it,... they'd have had M$ beat by massive amounts.
As for this next gen Revolution,... I feel as if it is anything like the total immersion demo we've all seen,... that Nintendo will cement itself into the majority of American homes for years to come.

Funny thing is,... speculation is,...... that by 2007, the all in one HDTV's will be in the majority of all homes. I speak of the units with wireless internet/everything, built in OS, HDDs, media ports, and a slew of other multi-functional tools/peripherals.
With that said,... who will want to hook up a console to their set then??? If you could just pick up your controller, turn on the tv with it, press a button, and play any game available from a server, in the best possible format, with 1080p+, 7.1 sound, and unlimited storage facilities,.... seriously, who'd want to shell out another $300-600 on consoles and games??

Although I hate to admit it,... the Phantom actually, is the only company thinking ahead.
With upgrades and updates,... the system is secured for a long while. With only the cost of a subscription,... you get an enormous amount of goods, without the worries of which platform is best, and the high costs of games, due to the publishing/distributing/marketing being eliminated, there'd be no real problems or shitty games.

Really,.... used games make up a large portion of money, that developers don't see. They still pay to make the discs though.
Think of all the money saved by not pressing Turok Evolution to 3 different platforms. Think of how it'd only take a few updates to correct the horridness. There could be BETAs for everyone, and the need to have QA teams come in, would be eliminated.

Hopefully, Nintendo will have a similar plan, but only with tangible media. As I love to touch stuff. :)

PS3 is going to sell well, due to it's popularity, and staple games.
XBox will be spectacular!! with it keeping DVD9's,... it'll keep costs down. LIVE will attract more and more people,... not to mention the current subscribers, and will be it's main attraction.

This may be the last console evolution.

I truly beleive that we are going to see a MAJOR design change. After these early birds are through,... something drastic will be done. Whether it be a merger, or a collapse,.... it'll be huge.
There will be a new device, that will offer something universally different, and it will absorb our weak souls like Kratos. VR, AR, or WetWare are the only untouched areas left.
I'm just PRAYING,... that this new Nintendo doesn't implement that SCENT TECHNOLOGY.

You know,... that digitally controlled scent chip, that has replaceable scented oils, that emit during just the right moment?? I really hope that technology stays dormant for many more years.
:)

[donssword]

I would not say the industry is crashing, but rather these events are symptomatic of its mainstreaming. The game industry will no more collapse than the home movie industry will.

Like cell phone ringtones, people are obsessed with gaming. Sure, the industry will wax and wane, but I find it unlikley that is shall ever crash again.

[rockhero]

The industry is crashing.. Defender made a post about this last year, and it's actually quite interesting to go back and read how much stuff came true.. http://www.cheapassgamer.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8363

What exactly in his post came true? It doesn't seem to me that people are "fed up" with paying $50 for a game. If so, they certainly have a strange way of showing it - Game sales are as high as they have ever been.

[MaxBiaggi3]

This whole discussion seems like an overly-dramatic discertation from some new video game degree program. A couple of people have overactive imaginations involving drastic change, and now the gullible want to believe that the sky is falling on the industry. I don't have faith in any of this nonsense. If you want to "scare" yourself by following the soothsayers, please be my guest. If the industry crashes tomorrow, I already have plenty of games at home that I can enjoy for many years to come.

[chickenhawk]

What exactly in his post came true? It doesn't seem to me that people are "fed up" with paying $50 for a game. If so, they certainly have a strange way of showing it - Game sales are as high as they have ever been.

I was wondering the same thing. I am sure there are other revelations throughout the thread though, which is maybe what Scorch is talking about. I don't remember everything that was said in that thread and didn't take the time to read through it again now.

With that said, I don't think that the industry is in a crash. It may fall from favor soon (I think that will depend on the next wave of consoles), but a crash is a pretty strong word. Look at the music industry. They have had falling sales for years yet they are still pushing out CDs every week like they always have. I personally don't think that the fact there are crap games means anything. Like it was stated already, VG makers can slap a "tag" on a game and it will sell in spite of it's quality. I don't see how that is the sign of a crash (sales=crash :?). A sign of uninformed and sheepish consumers, yes, but a crash, no.

[hutno]

What exactly in his post came true? It doesn't seem to me that people are "fed up" with paying $50 for a game. If so, they certainly have a strange way of showing it - Game sales are as high as they have ever been.

Yeah I agree with you, The reason there was a crash 20 years ago was because there was tons of crap the nobody would buy. Today there are at least 30 games with sequels that will sell great no matter what and plenty of decent games, which out number all of the crappy titles. Its not like parents and adults are going to stop buying video games like they did back with atari. In case anyone missed it gaming has gone mainstream, its not longer just a nerdy thing to do, everyone plays videogames whether it be madden, halo, GTA, ect.... There are tons of gamers at all ages with tons of money and nothing better to spend it on.

Also with the next generation of gaming coming, all of the "crap" from the past couple of years won't matter because everyone will be moving on to a new system. Even with backwards compatibility it won't matter just look at the ps2, I know of very few people who actually play psone games on their PS2. The industry isn't doomed as long as GTA and Madden sell millions of copies when they're released

[Mr Unoriginal]

I do think it's true that the gaming industry is being homogenized, but I would guess that while companies get bigger and bigger and release more and more crap, there will still be smaller companies that still make quality (Atlus comes to mind). Just like all other forms of media, 99% will be garbage, but there will still be that 1% of amazing things coming that make it worthwhile.

[the3rdkey]

I think developers like EA are strong enough to keep the industry alive forever!

[howlinmad]

Oh,........... you mean like SquarEnix???

It's funny,.. because no matter how horrid Final Fantasy's story is, people will buy it like mad.


Heck,.. I think if one of these companies were to use their marketing bicep, they could easily just have an expandable console, which had upgrades each year.
That way, there wouldn't be the need to buy a whole other system, peripherals, storage, etc...



I agree with your post, two comments.
People will buy Square no matter what, you are most definatly right. It's sickening actually.

About the system upgrades, I've said this since the NES. (you know the ports Nintendo always includes, yet never uses?) :)
The huge problem with this however is consoles are purchased by "hard core gamers", but a big percentage is also the parent who doesn't know better and the younger 12-17 + that just knows it's a game box. Yes, that younger does exsist because I see them in department and game stores, and have known a few actually. They aren't into PC gaming because there are things called "system requirments", to them, that's cryptic. I kid you not.

I hope XBox 2 doesn't become over ambitious, or any gaming console for that matter. While I'd love the expandability, the general public is simply not intelligent enough to do something simple like read the box. Hell, parents can't even read the game rating before buying GTA for their 11 year old. This I fear would seriously hamper it's acceptance to the soccormom crowd, which again, is a big percentage. Too big to lose IMHO.

**please excuse spelling and grammer, at work. :) **

[Dio69]

I think developers like EA are strong enough to keep the industry alive forever!


Thats Funny, all EA does is treat the gaming industry as if it is full of retards. Releasing Titles with very little improvements, and marketing it like its Half Life 2 in calibur. But EA's shares fell $11. Might not impact them that much, but it will kick them in the face and maybe they will release some AAA calibur games like Nintendo.

http://www.gamespot.com/news/2005/03/28/news_6121194.html

[ElwoodCuse]

The industry is not crashing. You can say what you want about game quality and/or originality, but the sales figures for video games as whole have been going up and up and up. Defender's post sounds more like a complaint against big stores that benefit from economies of scale being about to compete in ways that a small store cannot.

[Parathod]

A lot of gamers these days are buying games strictly on reviews they read online. Of course, these reviews normally reflect how "complete" a game is rather than how fun it is. A game with enormous length and many minigames tends to get the highest rating. Hence, games like Mr. Mosquito are lost in the shuffle, while "homogenized" games like GTA:SA, Final Fantasy, and Shenmue are considered "must owns". What this leads to is a lot of games that people don't even bother completing. The gameplay is so shallow in these games because designers are forced to spend more time on minigames, cinematics, graphics, and spreading the gameplay out so the game will last longer.

Gamers like to talk about what a game has rather than how fun the game is (25 fighters!, 150 hours + gameplay!, 500 cars!, 3 classic games!). We get hyped around potential rather than actual substance. The industry isn't forcing it on us, we the consumers are forcing it on them.

[Kayden]

This whole discussion seems like an overly-dramatic discertation from some new video game degree program. A couple of people have overactive imaginations involving drastic change, and now the gullible want to believe that the sky is falling on the industry. I don't have faith in any of this nonsense. If you want to "scare" yourself by following the soothsayers, please be my guest. If the industry crashes tomorrow, I already have plenty of games at home that I can enjoy for many years to come.

What about Caesar? He didn't listen to the soothsayer and look at where that landed him...

[pumbaa]

What about Caesar? He didn't listen to the soothsayer and look at where that landed him...

Et tu Kayden.

[Kayden]

A lot of gamers these days are buying games strictly on reviews they read online. Of course, these reviews normally reflect how "complete" a game is rather than how fun it is. A game with enormous length and many minigames tends to get the highest rating. Hence, games like Mr. Mosquito are lost in the shuffle, while "homogenized" games like GTA:SA, Final Fantasy, and Shenmue are considered "must owns". What this leads to is a lot of games that people don't even bother completing. The gameplay is so shallow in these games because designers are forced to spend more time on minigames, cinematics, graphics, and spreading the gameplay out so the game will last longer.

Gamers like to talk about what a game has rather than how fun the game is (25 fighters!, 150 hours + gameplay!, 500 cars!, 3 classic games!). We get hyped around potential rather than actual substance. The industry isn't forcing it on us, we the consumers are forcing it on them.

One of my favorite genres would be the scrolling shooters. They can generally be beaten in 1-2 hours and some of the best only have 1-2 planes.
Mars Matrix- 2 ships
Ikagura- 1 ship
R-type delta- 3 ships
Raiden- 1 ship, 3 power types

So, you're right. Length and choice doesn't matter as much as sheer fun factor... however, I'm itching for a home version of Raiden III that has like 20 ships... If it doesn't come soon I'll have to just buy the arcade cabinet. R-Type Final has 101 ships which increases the replay value exponentially...

So theres truth to both sides of the coin... but I agree that the quality of the substance is much more important than the ammount of it. Sure, you can unlock 101 ships, but would you really want to if the game play wasn't already engrossing?

Did that make sense? If not I doubt its much of a surprise... :roll:

[FriskyTanuki]

I don't think there's going to be a crash anytime soon. There's plenty of good to great games, regardless of how many you've played or are interested in.

As for the next generation, nobody's forcing the developers to make big budget games in the vein of a Halo or Shenmue. They can still make the smaller, cheaper games that they have made before, it's all about choices. If you haven't seen what Epic says about the next generation, they mention that there's need for new development tools to make the games easier to work with and lower costs, dev. time, and team sizes. They say with their Unreal Engine 3 and similar tools, content will "increase by a factor of 10. our team sizes will only increase 30-50 percent. This approach will enables developers to create hit games on $5-10 million budgets and be able to prosper without increasing prices." That's pretty reasonable with what they're claiming that the UE3 will allow developers to do. They also mention that "graphically, comparing this generation with the leap from PlayStation to PlayStation 2 is realistic." That could very well be true, but we'll have to see what comes out of E3 and the various other events that MS, Nintendo and Sony will hold afterwards to show off their new systems.

As for system upgrades, that's got to be a horrible idea. One of the pluses of developing for consoles is that the hardware is locked down. Having different versions out would ruin that and they'd have to spend time optimizing games for certain systems that have or don't have hard drives or have better graphics cards or whatever. The KISS ( Keep It Simple Stupid) system is what works with consoles. Don't make it difficult for the consumer to buy the system, take it home, plug it in, and play games within the same day shortly after they get home. Confusing the customer with upgrades, add-ons, and such will scare them away.

[epobirs]

I don't think there's going to be a crash anytime soon. There's plenty of good to great games, regardless of how many you've played or are interested in.

As for the next generation, nobody's forcing the developers to make big budget games in the vein of a Halo or Shenmue. They can still make the smaller, cheaper games that they have made before, it's all about choices. If you haven't seen what Epic says about the next generation, they mention that there's need for new development tools to make the games easier to work with and lower costs, dev. time, and team sizes. They say with their Unreal Engine 3 and similar tools, content will "increase by a factor of 10. our team sizes will only increase 30-50 percent. This approach will enables developers to create hit games on $5-10 million budgets and be able to prosper without increasing prices." That's pretty reasonable with what they're claiming that the UE3 will allow developers to do. They also mention that "graphically, comparing this generation with the leap from PlayStation to PlayStation 2 is realistic." That could very well be true, but we'll have to see what comes out of E3 and the various other events that MS, Nintendo and Sony will hold afterwards to show off their new systems.

As for system upgrades, that's got to be a horrible idea. One of the pluses of developing for consoles is that the hardware is locked down. Having different versions out would ruin that and they'd have to spend time optimizing games for certain systems that have or don't have hard drives or have better graphics cards or whatever. The KISS ( Keep It Simple Stupid) system is what works with consoles. Don't make it difficult for the consumer to buy the system, take it home, plug it in, and play games within the same day shortly after they get home. Confusing the customer with upgrades, add-ons, and such will scare them away.

To get an idea of how big a leap the next generation will be, take a look at the latest releases running on high-end PCs. Then, after you catch your breath, remind yourself that developers are still getting a handle on what they can do with DX9 class GPUs.

[FriskyTanuki]

To get an idea of how big a leap the next generation will be, take a look at the latest releases running on high-end PCs. Then, after you catch your breath, remind yourself that developers are still getting a handle on what they can do with DX9 class GPUs.

What card was it that I've been hearing that was pretty much what the next consoles could probably do? The GeForce 6800? I remember reading that that card or some variant would be similar but slower than what the next-gen consoles could do.

[Parathod]

One of my favorite genres would be the scrolling shooters. They can generally be beaten in 1-2 hours and some of the best only have 1-2 planes.
Mars Matrix- 2 ships
Ikagura- 1 ship
R-type delta- 3 ships
Raiden- 1 ship, 3 power types

So, you're right. Length and choice doesn't matter as much as sheer fun factor... however, I'm itching for a home version of Raiden III that has like 20 ships... If it doesn't come soon I'll have to just buy the arcade cabinet. R-Type Final has 101 ships which increases the replay value exponentially...

So theres truth to both sides of the coin... but I agree that the quality of the substance is much more important than the ammount of it. Sure, you can unlock 101 ships, but would you really want to if the game play wasn't already engrossing?

Did that make sense? If not I doubt its much of a surprise... :roll:

Yeah. It's not exactly black and white. Whenever you play an excellent game, you are bound to want more.

[epobirs]

What card was it that I've been hearing that was pretty much what the next consoles could probably do? The GeForce 6800? I remember reading that that card or some variant would be similar but slower than what the next-gen consoles could do.

Even the bottom of the barrel DX9 cards that you would never build into a gaming PC can demonstrate some remarkable stuff. They cannot generate the polygon volume needed by the high end games but they can still run the demos that are primarily concerned with shader functions. It's almost three years old but the Nvidia Dawn demo still is leaps and bounds ahead of what can be done on current consoles. Creating figures that are remarkably life like because they have things like a simulated circulatory system under the skin, which is translucent like real skin. When the light hits it, it goes in a ways before reflect. Thus you see things like the blood vessels near the surface as you would on a light skinned human. That is just one demo of the things we can expect to become common.

[zionoverfire]

I think the market is becoming oversaturated with crap and soon it will need to shed some fat. My only hope is that EA goes out first.

[Kayden]

Even the bottom of the barrel DX9 cards that you would never build into a gaming PC can demonstrate some remarkable stuff. They cannot generate the polygon volume needed by the high end games but they can still run the demos that are primarily concerned with shader functions. It's almost three years old but the Nvidia Dawn demo still is leaps and bounds ahead of what can be done on current consoles. Creating figures that are remarkably life like because they have things like a simulated circulatory system under the skin, which is translucent like real skin. When the light hits it, it goes in a ways before reflect. Thus you see things like the blood vessels near the surface as you would on a light skinned human. That is just one demo of the things we can expect to become common.

And the Unreal 3 Demo... =P~ The next generation of games will make Doom 3 look like shadow puppets.