Business Week: A Monster Year for Game Consoles - 360 to Outsell PS3 in 2008

[CheapyD]

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jan2006/tc20060123_995345.htm

Some interesting predictions including Xbox 360 outselling the PS3 in 2008

A report released by Citigroup on Jan. 16 predicts that Xbox 360 will hold its lead and edge out the PlayStation 3 in the U.S. at the peak of the next cycle, selling an estimated 8 million units in 2008 compared with 7.1 million PlayStation 3s in that year (for a grand total of 19.8 million since launch vs. 11 million, respectively). Citigroup expects Nintendo to have sold 3.9 million Revolution systems by 2008.

[RedvsBlue]

I never have been able to understand how they can predict something like this. It seems to me that there would be too many wildcards to be able to precisely say how many units a particular system will sell.

[Ikohn4ever]

but I predict the Jaguar 720X will dominate all consoles in 2010 only to get too cocky and get dethroned by the Phantom by infinium labs, which is finally released in 2015

[Graystone]

I never have been able to understand how they can predict something like this. It seems to me that there would be too many wildcards to be able to precisely say how many units a particular system will sell.

They have these people called advisors. Basically you have to be a bullshitter first then be good at bullshitting. Then go to college for business a nice simple degree and then walk and talk the part and you will become an advisor who makes hundreds of thousands of dollars.

I do agree that its to hard to say what will do what. Two of the three consoles are not even out yet.

[kill3r7]

I never have been able to understand how they can predict something like this. It seems to me that there would be too many wildcards to be able to precisely say how many units a particular system will sell.

It the job of an analyst to predict what the market will do. They are the prophets of today. In other words based on their expertise and knowledge of the market/consumer demand they are able to conjure up these numbers. Most of the time they are "close" to being right. Think of them as weatherman.

[Kaijufan]

I do agree that its to hard to say what will do what. Two of the three consoles are not even out yet.
Plus, we know very little about those two consoles that aren't out yet.

[VanillaGorilla]

Oh my god, those are the stupidest, worst "predictions" of all time! Anyone who believe this is frickin' stupid!


























































The Revolution is only gonna sell 2 million units.

[kakomu]

These predicitons are based on telemarketing and surveys of dispersed populations. I've learned enough about marketing research to know that much

[guardian_owl]

bfff, we can't know what will happen in 2 years, all it takes is one killer app to tilt the balance. How different do you think things would haven been if Halo was never developed?

[evanft]

This thread is substandard by David's typical standards. I feel asleep.

[MadFlava]

I hate it when "business" analyst think they can predict the future of gaming sales without even knowing what games will be coming out in 2007-2008. For all we know, Revolution can dominate in this next generation. When Saturn and PSX came out, people thought that Saturn would wipe the floor with it since Sega had a good history with the Genesis. Also who would have predicted that the PSX would some how win the war against a much more powerful N64. So I say we have no idea what system will win in the years to come. I for one hope that all systems do well because that will mean a better selection of amazing games to choose from in 2008.