Video Game Industry Crashes! Just like 84' except it's 04'

[defender]

This may not be official news but I really wanted to vent and start a thread about this.


I believe the game industry is in a crash. One that has just started this month but was setup from the latest xmas season. I have been in the game business about 12 years and owned my store for 10. I have read all the industry books on the crash as well. I think the Best Buy $4.99 sale is the true marker of the crash. I know that I am going out of business within 2 months now. I know that I am not the only one to go out of business this year. I speak to many wholesalers and other retailers and ALL of them report HORRIBLE sales. I know that with almost nothing important coming out this summer that the xmas titles that were out will only get discounted. Consumers are fed up with the $50 prices and knowing a game will be $20 or less in a short time only delays most purchases. Ebay has created a ton of sellers but now it seems like the buyers are fewer and fewer. Sure there are still gamers. But how many of you buy games at retail level? Because of competition margins has gotten below 20% which is incredibly bad for any retail sector. Let alone an item that doesnt have returns or mark down money. When I buy 10 copies of the latest game at $42...then I own those games even if they dont sell. If they get reduced in price. I have little choice but to mark my games down to match market price and lose any investment I made in the title.


1984 there was an industry widee game crash where Atari, Coleco, and Mattel all lost millions and all of them had to give it up. Today we have Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony. I think the face of gaming is about to change. I think it will head into an online arena where retailers only sell hardware and games are mostly downloaded. I think that 2004 will be remembered as the 2nd game market crash. My belief is that this started a few weeks ago...and continues today. It will not turn back because there is nothing that will make it do so. Retailers are gonna stop carrying many game products and online deals will get incredibly good for shoppers.

I have more to say but I think I am going to get some food.

[The Successful Dropout]

you buy new games at $42 each? call me stupid (and i know you will), but how do ppl on ebay sell brand new games for cheaper than that and still make profit?

[peteyrose]

Although I'm not in the retail business, I agree. All the stores I see have shrinking inventory. Whether or not that will result in a "crash" parsay is doubtful though.

[sj41]

What about the lineup GC has for later this year? Also Halo 2 will be sold at full price for alot of people. There is a huge lot of big name sequals for PS2. If this does go down it will be fixed by September. I had never even heard of sales being bad.

[ChrisXE]

I actually use ebay alot im a seller, I found a way to get BRAND new games for 9.99$(week of releas) then turn around and sell them on ebay a little over 60% off of the 49.99$ MSRP, usually at Buy Now for 30$ or 35$ so probably about a 25$ profit. I recently picked up La pucilla tactics for free. there was a B&M deal clear in Ohio, and I live in Virginia, but Glad I know a site that or person that helps me get those awesome deals. One thing I do is not exactly not legit(no its not steal) but kinda tricking the big corp.

[CaseyRyback]

with 3 console makers and such a large amount of titles squeezed into one month it is not hard to realize why the video game market is going down the drain.

[Cracka]

no no dont worry, theres some really cool consoles about to come out sometime soon... and as soon as the Phantom and ApeXtreme are out... everything will be ok.

[pukemon]

hey defender, i know you're in a slump, but i too have always thought this. i too see this as a marker. i think it's gonna blow up in our faces next generation. look at how much publishers blow on X game and still want top dollar for it. games need to go back sqaure one. pure fun. graphics are for whores. i bet if retail was $30 games would fly off shelves. this $50 crap is bullshit. the only games i purchase for $50 still are most nintendo games, and games that i think deserve my $50 like gran turismo 4 and i can't think of anything else right now because most of the games i paid 50 for are nintendo games. games like halo that are good aren't worth $50. as gamers get older, i do think they are also getting more patient and waiting to save a buck or two. and there's just too many games now. i am guilty of having waaaaaaaaay too many games, and this cursed website hasn't helped any. damn you cag. damn you.

[JSweeney]

I think that a crash is very possible, but I doubt that most of the industry would be wiped out like back in 84, but I do think that the next generation of consoles well very possibly not to sell to the levels that the current generation has.

[JSweeney]

What about the lineup GC has for later this year? Also Halo 2 will be sold at full price for alot of people. There is a huge lot of big name sequals for PS2. If this does go down it will be fixed by September. I had never even heard of sales being bad.

People will only buy so many games... 20 big names games in the span of a month and a half will not boost games sales that much... in fact, more likely that not they will canabalize each others sales.

[Alpha2]

I remember the '84 crash but I dont think it's as bad right now. I think it's more a matter of too many games you want play where as before it was too many games you didnt want to play. There isnt anyone going out and burying a million ET cartridges or Enter the Matrix disks in a landfill. In '84 people just got fed up with all the games with limited goals and expensive price tags, if you asked someone to pay 50 bucks for Colecovision's Smurf adventure today you'd probably be laughed at and beaten to death.

The 18-35 target demographic isnt giving up on games like people did in the 80's, if anything we're more hardcore, we just dont have as much time to play all the games they want so we've become a little more focused as to how we spend our time and money. And so maybe we wait on some titles rather than pick up a game on launch dayevery single time. Plus factoring in the economy in general it'd seem to me a lot of people want to hold on to a little more cash so we ignore the second and third stringers untill they drop to a price we think they're worth.

Could the prices be better? Hell yes that's why we;re all here. But I'll still buy a game if the price is right and it's worth getting.

[SneakyPenguin]

Sad, but true. I can see only one platform surviving the crash, and that is the resilient PC.

It sucks you're going out of business. i will make it a personal quest to get back out to your store before this happens.

[The Successful Dropout]

hey defender, i know you're in a slump, but i too have always thought this. i too see this as a marker. i think it's gonna blow up in our faces next generation. look at how much publishers blow on X game and still want top dollar for it. games need to go back sqaure one. pure fun. graphics are for whores. i bet if retail was $30 games would fly off shelves. this $50 crap is bullshit. the only games i purchase for $50 still are most nintendo games, and games that i think deserve my $50 like gran turismo 4 and i can't think of anything else right now because most of the games i paid 50 for are nintendo games. games like halo that are good aren't worth $50. as gamers get older, i do think they are also getting more patient and waiting to save a buck or two. and there's just too many games now. i am guilty of having waaaaaaaaay too many games, and this cursed website hasn't helped any. damn you cag. damn you.

but if they were $30....they would have to stay at $30 for that to work, otherwise ppl would just wait til they dropped down to $15 or $20

[bignick]

I loved dead mans hand for $30. It is has live play, and is a decent game. All games should be $30, I would buy a lot more. Carve new was only $20. Another live game that was kinda like wave race. Worth $20 all the way. On that day, I got 2 games with live ability for $50. Well worth it IMO.

[WhipSmartBanky]

Playing the other side of the coin...it wouldn't exactly be a bad thing for me. Those of us who are old enough remember all the Atari carts that could be found for 99 cents or less. Imagine picking up a couple dozen next gen games at that rate...

Let the industry cool off for a few years, give me a chance to play all the cheap games I own but have barely started. Then, wait for the second coming of the NES to revive the industry.

Of course, I'm not wishing any ill-will on the indie game retailers or the creative minds in the industry...I'm just voicing an alternate perspective.

Though, the likes of BestBuy can suck my left nut. And the right one. And the weiner in the middle.

[defender]

It wont wipe out the developers in this crash as much as the retail supply change. Kiss the mom and pops goodbye and even places like gamestop and eb may end up going online only. What's the point of them having stores anyways?

And Pukemon..I been saying this for months. A $30 price point would be great and also they need to stop the price dropping. I am sure that won't be a popular thought here. When Nintendo controlled the pricing and supply it all went smooth but with Sony and MS flooding the market and allowing any crappy cheap game to be mass produced....it's all crap now. Games are getting to a discount level so fast now.

As for the scam that ChrisXE has going on..sure that's fine for the couple hundred a month you make for yourself and you're part of the problem not the solution. I was making over $1 million a year in sales but now I am less than half that. I don't even want to embarass myself by saying how much money I make. Let's just say if I worked at McDonalds I would make more.

[sj41]

What about the lineup GC has for later this year? Also Halo 2 will be sold at full price for alot of people. There is a huge lot of big name sequals for PS2. If this does go down it will be fixed by September. I had never even heard of sales being bad.

People will only buy so many games... 20 big names games in the span of a month and a half will not boost games sales that much... in fact, more likely that not they will canabalize each others sales. Good point but alot of the titles are console exclusives. So for the people who only have one console, it could work out. Alot of the games have differing types of play. Once all these games come out there should be a couple of games that everyone will want to pick up for their console.

[pukemon]

that's what i'm saying stay at a reasonable price like 30 bucks. playstation 1 did pretty well when they lowered their msrp to $40 for most games. you only paid $50 for the occasional rpg. even $40 is fair for some games. there's just too much out there clamoring for my 50 bucks so i wait like alot of people do. i miss out occasionally, but with this backlog, all i can do is bitch. i think another thing hurting the industry is alot of people own 2 systems. back in the day, alot of people just owned one system. hence nintendo and sega fanyboys. now that we're all grown up, alot of us have 2, and even 3 systems. not good.

[jimbodan]

While a crash may be upcomming, without some production numbers I think it's impossible to tell. Back in 83-84 during the big crash companies lik Atari produced way too many cartridges, in fact they actually produced more pac-man carts then there were systems. I think that the over supply factor was the biggest reason for the crash, along with the lack of any next-gen stuff to keep consumers paying full price.

Without the production data I have no idea if companies are overproducing stuff again, so I can't really comment on that, as for the next-gen stuff, both the PSP and Nintendo DS are on the horizon, as well as some high profile titles, Halo 2, Half-Life 2, GTA San Andreas, Doom III. When these titles and the new systems come out I think everything will correct itself. The industry is very cycilical and right now we are just getting towards the end of the cycle I believe. Now if the PSP and DS flop, and these high profile titles don't end up selling, then we might be looking at another crash.

[defender]

Yeah I am sure Halo will sell really well but the profit aint that great anyways so there is little point. And I bet that month that no one buys any other xbox game...everyone will buy halo 2 and thats it.

[yellowaznboy]

As for the scam that ChrisXE has going on..sure that's fine for the couple hundred a month you make for yourself and you're part of the problem not the solution. I was making over $1 million a year in sales but now I am less than half that. I don't even want to embarass myself by saying how much money I make. Let's just say if I worked at McDonalds I would make more.

Is that an exaggeration, or are you serious? :shock:

[eldad9]

Sad, but true. I can see only one platform surviving the crash, and that is the resilient PC.

So resilient the OS needs to be completely reinstalled every few months.

The PC isn't a platform; it's an infinite range of configurations generally able to run the same software (although the results may vary).

[punqsux]

As for the scam that ChrisXE has going on..sure that's fine for the couple hundred a month you make for yourself and you're part of the problem not the solution. I was making over $1 million a year in sales but now I am less than half that. I don't even want to embarass myself by saying how much money I make. Let's just say if I worked at McDonalds I would make more.

Is that an exaggeration, or are you serious? :shock:

most small game stores lose money...

[Admiral Ackbar]

You know, I just read an article about one of the heads in Nintendo who feels there's a crash coming due to lack of innovation.

Here's the article. (http://money.cnn.com/2004/05/20/commentary/game_over/column_gaming/index.htm)

I kinda disagree the article somewhat. You see dance pads, eye toys, the new DS. The problem is, for these companies to consider something like this successful, it has to sell quantities beyond any reasonable scope. And then there are great risks because some are patently stupid, like the powerglove. It's like having a million dollar movie that bombs.

First, I think there's a "media" glut. In other words, the amount of "media entertainment" being supplied is too much for the pigs at the trough. For example, rating/advertising revenue goes down on TV because more people are using the internet and video games. People buy less Cd's because they see that DVD's are more cost effective. More people are spending money on Rentals and in theater movies instead of DVD's. The industries are at the point where they have to fight for the same eyeballs. That's one reason you see such vertical and horizontal integretion these days. If DVD's are taking away from CD's, and Time warner sells both, then the impact is negligable.

Then, there's the high cost and specialization of development. The game industry is larger than the movie industry. There are a lot of great games produced. But there are great games that are flops, Like Prince of Persia and Wheel of Time. That's why there's a focus on symbol and brand name. Why make a Van Helsing where at the same price you can make Shrek 2, a proven franchise. And heaven forbid if say, Half Life 2 sucks.

Finally, I think the video game industry is artificially supported by it's price structure. CNN also did an article recently showing that stores were unwilling to cut prices on games. I mean, the deals we find here are the exception, not the norm. Most games retail at $50, $40, and $30, with value titles being $20. And there seems to be clear steps at which those prices will variate. While in PC Gaming, the price of a game is much more fluid to market forces.

[sj41]

Well right now I have 30 xbox games. I need to start trying to actually play and beat 8 or so. I'm going to try and sell about 15 games. If I'm able to sell some of my old games then I might start buying again. With summer here that shouldn't be a problem. No school.

[defender]

Doom III and HL2 are also gonna hurt the console market since both will be HUGE pc games and many users will be scrounging up bucks to upgrade their systems. PC upgrades for these games could easily be $500...so how much money will be left to buy some ps2 game?

All the titles you mentioned are good games. Personally I dont think the DS will do that well. The PSP might but the profit is low and the price will be expensive. I also dont doubt they will be underproduced and rather hard to get for the xmas season. The PSP may help for next year but to be honest. Many places are gonna go out of business until then.

Also it wasnt pac-man that they made more of than systems..it was ET. While I dont think any one game has been that overproduced yet....I am sure that the quantity of titles released has made up for it. Any one of the games you mentioned could be the overproduced title. Will GTA really sell as well as Vice City? How about Halo 2....what if it sucks? Also you only really mention 2 games. GTA and Halo 2. Is that really all there is for the whole 2004 season? E3 just ended and i havent been hearing anything much about great new titles coming.

[robogriff]

I'm intrigued by your thoughts about the market crashing. Your message couldn't have come at a better time, since I'm in the planning stages of opening a videogame retail storefront. I would like to discuss some of these numbers in greater detail with you. PM me if you don't mind sharing the knowledge.

[Scrubking]

I think your store is going through some hard times and you are predicting the end of the world because of it. Take a deep breath.

[punqsux]

in all honesty, i see defenders point. im really sorry it had to hit you so hard.

in all truth, every gaming company could go out of business tomarrow, and games could cease to be produced, that'd be the only way id be able to play all the game i want to right now...

[defender]

Sad, but true. I can see only one platform surviving the crash, and that is the resilient PC.

So resilient the OS needs to be completely reinstalled every few months.

The PC isn't a platform; it's an infinite range of configurations generally able to run the same software (although the results may vary).

If you are reinstalling your OS every few months you are doing something wrong. I had a hard drive failure on my XP and just bought a ghost program to copy the drive. I havent had to reinstall XP since I first installed it. This is the first MS Windows this is true for me ...but still...it's true. PC is a platform btw. It's the shortest way of saying Windows system. PC encompasses many aspects but it's mostly understood that PC gaming is in the Windows environment. I find it very stable and the games are 100x better than console. This has always been true. When Doom III and HL2 come out...console gaming is just for the cheap broke asses who can't afford a kick ass PC. I have a Pentium 4 3.2ghz HT system just waiting for a graphics card (which I will pay top dollar for). HL2 has got me all messed up. Has anyone seen Counter-Strike running off the engine. I watched a video of Aztec and I just about creamed my jeans.

[Missingdata]

OMG.....

I can't believe it....

Oh well....

That's life

[defender]

I think your store is going through some hard times and you are predicting the end of the world because of it. Take a deep breath.

I am past hard times...hard times have been the last 2 years. If you knew my current status you would fucking jump in front of a bus. I aint predicting the end of the world...just a game market crash. It happens to markets. The markets dont vanish overnight...they just change..usually drastically and for the better. My only real prediction is that I will be out of business rather soon and so are many retailers.

[Alpha2]

there isnt going to be a crash that hurts the game companies. I agree with what Defender said about it hurting the little guys (although EB and GS are fare from momnpop shops).

Unless they can beat the chains with lower prices in the same neighborhood they'll get hurt by the flood of games that hits every other week. It's possible, I know it happens, but they make less money over all.

For instance, the place where I go (B&M) will have a game 5 bucks cheaper than the EB down the street. I'll buy the game from them but they;re very likely makeing a lot less on that game than EB would off the clueless mom buying the same game for her kid, just because she knows the store sells games and she'll gladly get in line with 5 other moms who have the same impression and never know they all could have gotten it for less.

In the end the Momnpop shops dont make much money because they have to conserve shelfspace and keep a smaller inventory than the chains because they dont get as much traffic. If they dont try to keep the inventory up then they loose out on sales when customers come in and they have to say it's out of stock because they only had 10 copies as opposed to the EB with 50 (which they have because they could afford to buy in such massive bulk that they can make even more money wuith their inflated prices).

It's all like a demonic catch 22 or something.

[CaseyRyback]

They did produce more Pac-Man's than 2600's. They mentioned both ET and Pac-Man were two titles with more carts than consoles (maybe others but those were mentioned)

this was on icon's

[XboxMaster]

I'm scared...

[pukemon]

hey defender. why do you think the ds is gonna do horrible. i was surprised to see from this site and gamefaqs that the ds seems more popular than the psp for now. and the psp price is gonna hurt it alot. alot. and nintendo did real well for itself at E3 this year. i have a lot to look forward too from nintendo. for ps2, gt4 is the only reason i keep the system. and as for halo2. yeah i want it, but i'm not excited about it. i'm looking forward to pikmin2 more than halo2.

[jimbodan]

Doom III and HL2 are also gonna hurt the console market since both will be HUGE pc games and many users will be scrounging up bucks to upgrade their systems. PC upgrades for these games could easily be $500...so how much money will be left to buy some ps2 game?

All the titles you mentioned are good games. Personally I dont think the DS will do that well. The PSP might but the profit is low and the price will be expensive. I also dont doubt they will be underproduced and rather hard to get for the xmas season. The PSP may help for next year but to be honest. Many places are gonna go out of business until then.

Also it wasnt pac-man that they made more of than systems..it was ET. While I dont think any one game has been that overproduced yet....I am sure that the quantity of titles released has made up for it. Any one of the games you mentioned could be the overproduced title. Will GTA really sell as well as Vice City? How about Halo 2....what if it sucks? Also you only really mention 2 games. GTA and Halo 2. Is that really all there is for the whole 2004 season? E3 just ended and i havent been hearing anything much about great new titles coming.


are you sure it was E.T, the book I have (High Score! The Illustrated History of Electronic Games) says it was Pac-Man, not like it really matters though. I see your point about Doom and Half-Life, I just lumped PC and Console together, but yeah a lot of people will have to upgrade to play those games and it will take a chunk out of their gaming budget. Yeah, other then those titles there isn't a ton of stuff comming out, but It may be enough, combined with DS and PSP to hold over until the next-gen stuff comes out. Hmm... when are the next-gen consoles comming out? I remember hearing something about 2006? If that's the case then you may be very right, I was thinking a lot of stuff would be out in 2005, but if the console makers all wait until 2006, then 2005 may be a very bad year.

[ChrisXE]

even a possible Program set up by sony or Microsoft or Nintendo(buy 200$ worth of their products within a 3 month span, and recieve a voucher for any 49.99$ game or below)

that would reward people and even get people off their a*s to buy more, dunno might sound stupid, but that would temp me to buy more

[Maxwell31]

Games at fifty dollars were really too much. I have been playing games for years and all they ever really exceled in was price. I had more fun with my basic Nintendo, (I can't believe I just said that). Sure we have better graphics but who wants that over good game play? Also, why pay full price for a game when it gets marked down less than a month or two later on most titles. Damn, you know how many games I kicked myself for paying full price? Sellers are looking to make great profits and me as a consumer are looking to save money. After all that's why were all here to begin with.

[jlarlee]

I think a good example of why the price point being lower will help is the GBA. I am no industry insider but it appears to me that the GBA does quite well and I personally think it's the only reason Nintendo is in the console business anymore. GBA games are cheaper and a lot of them I have played have reminded me of the old days because they are simple fun. I only buy one $50 game a year and that is Madden because I play it the whole year around and get my moneys worth. I think it's outrageous that you pay $50 for a game in disc format. I kind of understood it in the cartridge days because they were more expensive to produce. my question is what is driving these $50 price points. if production costs are causing it they need to streamline the process because a game should not cost roughly 3 times more than a DVD movie.

[roland13x]

One thing to consider is the actual cost to make these games. Most games these days cost millions and millions of dollars and at least 18 months (more likely 30 months for AAA titles) to put out. Add in marketing, distribution and other costs (production, quality assurance, legal), and these games are just very costly. Retailers aren't making much, developers aren't making much, publishers aren't making too much, even 1st party isn't making too much. It all skittles around.

Do you know how much a publisher has to pay a 1st party to even get the game on the shelf? Usually around $7 for a new title. Now reconsider the profits you think these companies have.

Finally, games have always been at around the $50 mark. One problem is how the games industry is following the film industry. HUGE first week (or month), then dump the product. It's a huge market...if people really want the game, they'll buy it right away. The rest of the mainstream will eventually trickle in.

I'm not defending the price of games, just explaining where that cost comes from. And it's only going to get tighter for some of the lesser developers/publishers...there's no way they can keep costs in line and make a competitive product.

EDIT - You cannot fairly compare the amount of entertainment between a DVD and a game, so you cannot fairly compare the price.

[eldad9]

What a coincidence!

I found another site that shows the similarities between 1984 and 2004:

http://www.studentsfororwell.org/

[Gothic Walrus]

you buy new games at $42 each? call me stupid (and i know you will), but how do ppl on ebay sell brand new games for cheaper than that and still make profit?

Simple: they buy the games for cheaper than that.

An eBay seller might have gotten, say, 20 or so copies of Wario Ware at Best Buy for $5. If he can sell them for $10 each, he's doubled his money.

In my eyes, the problem is simply that the market is oversaturated. The solution? Get companies to put more time and effort into a smaller number of games. Less crap, more well-made games...it's a very simplistic idea, and most likely not feasible in reality, but it might be something. Or, I might just be dreaming.

That said...there's really no way to tell what will happen until it does. I'm hoping that defender is wrong, but we'll just have to wait and see...

[PsyClerk]

You know, I just read an article about one of the heads in Nintendo who feels there's a crash coming due to lack of innovation.

Someone at Nintendo complaining about lack of innovation...now THAT is some funny stuff.

[Admiral Ackbar]

if production costs are causing it they need to streamline the process because a game should not cost roughly 3 times more than a DVD movie.

You can't compare the costs to DVD. I mean, your rational is fine. Most people only care about price and that's it. But remember, for DVD's, most of the times the film or show has alreay run and made millions over seas or is in syndication or something.

Also, production costs from my understanding are skyrocketing in the video game industry. Today's games are increadibly complex and require major specialization. I mean, I wish I had the skill to build my own counterstrike mod. But I can't. I don't know how to create textures and code AI on that level and so on. Then you have to port to multiple platforms, and everyone gets their cut of the profits. Ten there's advertising in a glutted market. Also, how many great games get a 7-8 gamespot rating or an 80% gamestpot raing. They're good games, but it's almost like a death sentence for some sales. Even getting a 9 is no garuntee, like Prince of Persia, Mafia, or Freedom Fighters. How many of you had that number one on your list to buy when they were released at $50 bucks?

As an aside, I've been juggling with buying some books and seeing if I could develop a new Gold box game. Basically a new game using the 3rd edition AD&D rules but in a graphical style similar to the old gold box games from the 80's. That would be cool.

[greendj27]

Just curious, but what kind of marketing are you doing defender? A lot of people make some common mistakes like overspending on yellow pages. If you want, I could give you some advice to save money and make your marketing work better. I do it everyday in my job as an account executive at a tv station. I would just need to know more about what types of marketing you are currently doing, what is working, etc. PM if you are interested in my help. It would be completely free advice.

[defender]

I aint wrong...it is happening. The rest of you just arent financially involved. I am smack in the middle. I hear the same shit from a dozen other retailers and suppliers. The past 3 weeks have been dreadful. The BB sale convinced me. Logic dictates that they wouldnt be selling games at $5 unless there was a serious problem. It's not like $10-$20. Someone is taking a serious loss in that sale. Either best buy or the publishers (maybe a little of both). Why didnt they just do $9.99...many of those games would have sold? I think a $4.99 sale is a PANIC reaction to every day poor sales.

[defender]

CAG is my marketing.

I am not a noob who has just opened and messed up and now I have to close. I am one of the strongest and best independents in the city. The day I close will make many other retailers wake up to the bad news. My rent isnt that bad either..its below the local market value. This is why I want to keep the store but get rid of the games. I can still make money here. I wasnt always a game store anyways. Now my store is 100% games but when I opened I had computers, porn, laserdiscs, software, walkmans, electronics, and I did computer upgrades/repair and consulting. Eventually I made more and more on games and since my store aint that big other section were eliminated. Now the reverse has to happen and I must eliminate games as fast as possible to regain capital to buy back other merchandise. If I am lucky I can get a cheap place in Brooklyn to conduct mail order. The site has shown me that I can make money (it's not a lot) but the expenses are far less.

[Admiral Ackbar]

I aint wrong...it is happening. The rest of you just arent financially involved. I am smack in the middle. I hear the same shit from a dozen other retailers and suppliers. The past 3 weeks have been dreadful. The BB sale convinced me. Logic dictates that they wouldnt be selling games at $5 unless there was a serious problem. It's not like $10-$20. Someone is taking a serious loss in that sale. Either best buy or the publishers (maybe a little of both). Why didnt they just do $9.99...many of those games would have sold? I think a $4.99 sale is a PANIC reaction to every day poor sales.

I think he's right. Basically, BB probably came to the point where they falt that the amount of money it was costing them to have these games sit on the shelves more than the loss at selling them for $5 bucks a piece. That's why I think that CC did the penny deal to sell clone wars/tetris bundles. Some have said it was a mistake but I think it was just to clear inventory. And you see this in other industries.

Khols had a huge loss this holiday season, so they dumped their clothing at rediculous priced just to clear it out and make some money. Why lose ten dollars and have a shirt sit on the shelf when you can lose eight dollars and clear that item from the store.

[PsyClerk]

You can't compare the costs to DVD. I mean, your rational is fine. Most people only care about price and that's it. But remember, for DVD's, most of the times the film or show has alreay run and made millions over seas or is in syndication or something.

Actually you CAN compare the costs. Having been in the video business for a long time (though not anymore thankfully), I can tell you that there are tons and tons and tons of movies that DON'T get released in theaters, aren't released on TV first, and basically make no money until they are released on VHS/DVD. These movies have only become more prevalent since DVD has become widespread. They have budgets under $5 million (most have a LOT less than that), and when they are marketed to the different movie places (video stores, video retailers, etc), they are usually priced less than your average high budget theatrical release. They obviously do well, because so many get made, and there are many studios who release only those types of movies.

The only difference is in potential consumer base. Since probably 90% of the US has access to a VCR or DVD player, they can get away with only getting 5% of the market to look at their product. But even before such high saturation of VCRs, these movies were made and brought in money. I can only think that the reason some game companies have trouble doing something similar is due to the stigma of video games, which is that 'games are for kids.'

That's changing, but it's still prevalent.

And it looks like I'm singling out Admiral Ackbar in this thread. I didn't mean to, so it must be a trap.

[pukemon]

i got a fucking question. what the fuck happened to cd's being cheaper than cartridges? i just don't see that this generation. for ANY side of this bad equation. and it's the publisher's and developer's fault and the big 3 for what's about to happen. they spend millions to push out games as fast as they can and half aren't even worth shelf space in an underground basement about to nuclear pulverized. i think microsoft made it happe. they're spending money to lose money just so they can be a ME TOO. and the damn graphics whores are buying it up like it's going out of style.

[robogriff]

i got a shaq-fuing question. what the shaq-fu happened to cd's being cheaper than cartridges? i just don't see that this generation. for ANY side of this bad equation. and it's the publisher's and developer's fault and the big 3 for what's about to happen. they spend millions to push out games as fast as they can and half aren't even worth shelf space in an underground basement about to nuclear pulverized. i think microsoft made it happe. they're spending money to lose money just so they can be a ME TOO. and the damn graphics are buying it up like it's going out of style.


CD's are cheaper to manufacture, but the development costs are MUCH higher today than 10 or 20 years ago. That's why the prices have not moved much for new releases. But look on the other side, b/c CD's are so cheap to produce, we get discounted game lines (platnum hits, greatest hits, etc..)

[Admiral Ackbar]

You can't compare the costs to DVD. I mean, your rational is fine. Most people only care about price and that's it. But remember, for DVD's, most of the times the film or show has alreay run and made millions over seas or is in syndication or something.

Actually you CAN compare the costs. Having been in the video business for a long time (though not anymore thankfully), I can tell you that there are tons and tons and tons of movies that DON'T get released in theaters, aren't released on TV first, and basically make no money until they are released on VHS/DVD. These movies have only become more prevalent since DVD has become widespread. They have budgets under $5 million (most have a LOT less than that), and when they are marketed to the different movie places (video stores, video retailers, etc), they are usually priced less than your average high budget theatrical release. They obviously do well, because so many get made, and there are many studios who release only those types of movies.

The only difference is in potential consumer base. Since probably 90% of the US has access to a VCR or DVD player, they can get away with only getting 5% of the market to look at their product. But even before such high saturation of VCRs, these movies were made and brought in money. I can only think that the reason some game companies have trouble doing something similar is due to the stigma of video games, which is that 'games are for kids.'

That's changing, but it's still prevalent.

And it looks like I'm singling out Admiral Ackbar in this thread. I didn't mean to, so it must be a trap.

No, I think you're right to a point. I mean, you can make some comparisons. But you can also compare apples and oranges. They're both round, they're both fruit. Like you can make some comparisons to cd's and some comparisons to books and so on. But only in a generalized fashion. You can't directly compare say DVD's and Video Games and go, why are DVD's $5 to $20 and Video Games $20-50. Games should be the same price because they're the same as DVD's.

There are some very big differences that make some comparisons unreasonable. For example, there's the tiered deployment of video games. You can go from Theater Release, to TV, to Rental, to Pay per view, to DVD. And yes, there are flops in movies like in games. Also, there's been a shift because the DVD market is still relatively new. Just like CD's were new over a decade ago. One reason CD sales are lower is because people hav already bought CD replacement for their tape copies of music. DVD is in the middple of that now, where people can buy the Complete Monty Python to replace old tapes and such. But even that will eventually taper off. Where the video game market doesn't really have rleationships like this. At least, not nearly on the scale or integration of the studio machines. The two mediums have some very different costs and very different hurdles that make direct comparisons simpilistic in my view.

[SatchmoKhan]

The market seems to be saturated with games at this point, many of which are good or mediocre, but with so many great games out on the 3 consoles and PC we just can't afford to buy all we may want to at full price. And I think the guys talking about game quality are on the right track, look at a developer like Bioware that takes their time and puts out a few great games (not just sequels) and the sales show.

[batman2million]

pukemon makes a great point. (about his early post) i rarley buy games at $50 price. only the big names..like halo etc i pay full price.. most of the time i jus rent the games ( i got a game pass) and keep em for how long i ever want or wait till it becomes cheap. defender, i make a good point about ppl upgrading their pc for half life 2...but isn't it coming for xbox? isn't doom 3? i really think ppl..(who own xbox) would most likley get that verison. I could only expect this to get worse..i dunno about this crash but the cost of living is going to rise and income will stay the same..thus ppl will spend less.. i own a resturant n college ppl used to come often..now they don't cuz they have to save that money for gas. so i don't make money. business is bad for everyone (check out gas stations these days). i really hope the gaming industry don't crash..but with wat defenders sayin..it mite b true. again..its jus ur opinion. damn bush

[greendj27]

CAG is my marketing.

I am not a noob who has just opened and messed up and now I have to close. I am one of the strongest and best independents in the city. The day I close will make many other retailers wake up to the bad news. My rent isnt that bad either..its below the local market value. This is why I want to keep the store but get rid of the games. I can still make money here. I wasnt always a game store anyways. Now my store is 100% games but when I opened I had computers, porn, laserdiscs, software, walkmans, electronics, and I did computer upgrades/repair and consulting. Eventually I made more and more on games and since my store aint that big other section were eliminated. Now the reverse has to happen and I must eliminate games as fast as possible to regain capital to buy back other merchandise. If I am lucky I can get a cheap place in Brooklyn to conduct mail order. The site has shown me that I can make money (it's not a lot) but the expenses are far less.

I didn't mean to imply that you did not know what you are doing. Actually you seem like a business owner who stays on top of their industry. You would be surprised by how many business owners don't . What i really meant is that there are ways to save money on things like your yellow page ads. Obviously it depends on what size you have now, but your ad should be no larger than a triple quarter display ad. It should not have color. The first line should have a short phrase telling how you differentiate yourself. Then list your phone number, address and business name. Nothing more than that. Yellow pages are a big waste of money for businesses. They sit closed more than 99% of the time and most people who use them have already made up their mind where to buy. Studies have shown that size does not matter, and color can actually lower the effectiveness of an ad. I could go on for a long time, but I can give advice on nearlyevery advertising medium. I know you know your business better than anyone. I was just offering any help i can give because I know advertising and marketing. You seem like a nice guy trying to support your family. I think everyone on this site wants to help you if they can.

[defender]

To straighten it out... I dont advertise at all in the yellow pages. My customers know where I am if they want a game. 10 years in biz. My first 4-5 years I spent well on ads and stuff but then the return on those stopped and I was just making money without it.

Do you know anything about internet advertising/marketing? PM me if you do because I am starting a project soon with a partner. You may be interested.

[DMFunk]

Well looks like it's time to vent. I'm not exaclty pointing fingers here.. well I am, Nintendo and Sony the cause behind the Video game market going down. They thought it would help if developers could easily make games and release them hassle free, unlike Nintendo's more strict approach. It's simple math, back in the day when Nes carts were 50 buck each, it wasn't a problem, because there would only be about 1-2 desired games a month, Great you get one or 2 of those games and are happy.

Years passed, And then you had SNES, vs. Genesis, same case, you get your games that come out every month, maybe 1-2, 3 at the most :0!

Then Nintendo made this huge mistake, scrapping the SNES cd, giving it to Sony... Now Nintendo had their real competiton. Before It was a battle between Nintendo, and Sega.... Turned 3 ways now, Nintendo, Sony and Sega. Everyone gets their games for their systems, let it be N64, PSX, or Dreamcast. Sega gets stomped on due to it's easy-to-pirate-ness and then Sony and Nintendo are left the duel.

The battle is fierce, and then Sony releases the PS2, a marvel of Graphics, power, and 99.9999999999% crap games, why? because Sony will let anyone make a game for their console, even if it is as crappy as... Backyard wrestling, or RTX (think that's the name) Well I could go on for hour of the crappy game ratio's for next gen console, but that would just bore everyone more than this post is already.

Nintendo responds with the Gamecube, and Microsoft comes along with the Xbox.

Big problem here, when there were 3 console before, the Industry was starting to hurt a bit, Yes it made a jump when Xbox and the cube fist launched, but when has a system launch not caused a jump in the industry? (Ok, forget about Virtual boy, and any "next-gen" Atari system... and cd-i.... and 3do... errr... yeah thats abouty all I can think of for now)

So we have 3 corporate giants fighting for the Top, One boasts A large Libary, One Claims it has more power than the two, and one has all of our favorite classic characters.

What does this lead to? Every console having it's own flock of games each month. Also included each month are a great deal of horrible games. Why? Because the console companies, with the exception of Nintendo (To some extent) are letting 3rd parties release whatever crap they want to.

Let's do this mathematically:
I'm not sure on the exact price of games for retailers, but it is obviously cheaper by the amount you purchase so I am going to say it costs $30 for each $50 game. (Go Ahead and Flame me if im wrong I could care less, it's just a rough estimate)

Back in the Days of NES, lets say a given store has 3 Games that came out that week, so they get 15 copies of each, all retailing for the price of $50, and cost them $30 per copy (Again ALL rough estimates) Roughly costing the store $1350, Let's say they sell 10 of Game A, All 15 of Game b and Game C was McKid's so they sold 2 (poor bastards that bought it) Right there, the store will break even, and the rest of the stock can be put on the shelves and make some profit, in the next weeks.

for the first week of june this year, I counted at least 20 games being released.... IN ONE WEEK, in the US, now is where the problem occurs. of all of those not too many seem that appeal, to be truthful.... I doubt i'll get any before a price drop, if any at all, why? because I can guarentee they are all crap, each and every one of them.

Ok I know some of them retail for $20-$30 but to get my point across i'm going to value them all at $50
let's say the store buys 20 of each game, demands are higher for games than they were back in the NES days.

If the store pays $25 for each game it comes out to: $10,000 for that week's purchases, not too bad considering they have $400 games with a MSRP equaling: $20,000 sitting in the back a possibility for a rather high profit. The problem? Wayy to effin many games and they all suck, who the ehll in tehir right mind is going to buy The Chronicles of Riddick, sweet jesus the movie looks like crap too!

Let's jsut say, so you all have less to read if you actually are reading it, they sell 100/400 games they bought in teh first week, $5,000 half their money back. Now those games that are out there, have a low chance to being purchased, because another 500 games were just added in the stock room, of those 500 only 250 were sold, much better turnover than the first week, but still not enough to compensate the amount the company is behind right now. All those games collect dust, and the retailer has no choice but to force a price drop to get rid of the extra inventory, all the games drop to $30 or less, causing each sale to help them break even/hurt them...

Multiply this effect for every week in a year, and the supply of games reaches an all time high, but the demand hasn't even budged, unless companies notice that crap games hurt the industry instead of help it, then the game industry is more screwed than Urkle in a deathmatch between Him, Chuck Norris and Bruce Lee... well we'd need a time machine for that to work, but you get the point.

And thank you to those who spent the time to read it, it's been something I wanted to get off my chest for a LONG time.

[alongx]

Up until last December, when I came to the realization that I had no money to spend, I bought almost every game I had at $50 a pop. But now (finally) I have noticed trends in game prices - primarily that most titles drop to $20 or under within a year. If retailers kept the prices higher, I'd be more inclined to buy games closer to their release at $50 a pop still. But I know that FF12 and MGS3 will be GH titles within 12 months, because the same thing happened with their predecessors.

[jlarlee]

I think another problem is there are no more event games coming out. Games people look forward to being released for years and it causes groups of people to buy it in a near hysteria. Do you think the release of Halo 2 will be anything like when Mario 3 dropped back in the day. I may be getting cynical in my older age but I don't get nearly as many wow-special moments in games anymore.

[Ledhed]

Defender, it's a shame to see that you aren't doing well, and I've been trying to deny what you are saying, but the past year or so has shown me that you may be right.

The past 2 years, games have grossed more raw revenue than theatrical films. Many (including myself) saw this as a great moment for games, a chance for games to be introduced to the mainstream, to be accepted for what they are, to not be seen as 'kid stuff'. Only recently have I considered the problems inherent to this: the videogame industry perhaps still isn't ready for the saturation that music and movies see; and the fact that many more people know of the potential for profit in this industry, and I don't mean independents like Defender.

As games become more mainsteam, more pressure is placed on companies to try and create product that has a wide appeal. Sometimes this can be a good thing, example The Sims. The Sims has become a household name and is one of the top-selling franchises in gaming for a reason: it appeals to a wide audience (how many moms do you know that play the Sims? Cuz I know a damn lot). But now, I fear this may cause companies to burden themselves with the belief that they need to make at least one game that can appeal to a certain demographic or all demographics. This may only cause a problem in lackluster content as companies soften their games, which sucks for the gamer for whom the game was created. Would DOOM have become what it is if Id Software had been concerned as to whether a 9 year-old girl would enjoy it? No, it wouldn't have.

But it also may cause a problem with market saturation and these new demographics being introduced to what is still a pretty alien form of entertainment. Too many people look at price, not quality when it comes to entertainment. Someone brings some $10 piece-of-shit budgetware game to my counter, I tell them it sucks, tell them they should buy this other good game that deserves their money, and they still buy the crap game. Why? Because it was $10, and they simply don't know anything about games. We here at CAG are guilty of this behavior too. Just because a game is $XX doesn't mean it is any fun. In fact, that is a good indicator that the game is crap.

The other problem I see is also related to budgetware, and was a huge factor to the '80s crash. When some company that originally had no affiliation with games finds out about the fact that games have recently grossed more than movies, they decide that they want a piece of that pie. They then fund the creation of a budgetware game with the knowledge that it will be seen on store shelves with a $20 price tag. Clueless, value-happy consumer enters game store to get some birthday gifts. Do you think they are gonna buy a quality $50 game when they could buy several budget games for that price? Of course they won't, I see it every day I go to work. So the more expensive quality titles go unnoticed in the sea of budgetware, and eventually are dropped in price to either compete with budgetware or to simply make shelfspace.

Or that company, instead of involving themselves directly in the games, could purchase a share of an established company, like Capcom or Konami. This may seem harmless (hey, bigger moneypool for developers, right?), but these companies now have a say regarding the content of the games they are now involved in. If a game is has questionable content, they can censor it, because it is their money at stake. This doesn't really have a direct affect on the sale of games, but could lead to alot of innovative games being toned-down or rethought, simply because these companies don't want to risk losing money.

Jesus, that was alot. I'll shut up now.

[paean]

I believe there will be a correction, but not a crash. The market is alot different than 84 when videogames was still a relatively new industry.

[jlarlee]

And another thing. In an earlier thread people posted their games in their collection that they had not completed and a lot of them were quite long. If I have 20 games I haven't completed why would I spend $50 on a game that I may not get the chance to play for a few months when it has already dropped in price. Inflation is bad ask the Germans who needed a wheel barrow full of money to buy a loaf of bread after WW II because the Nazis figured they could fix things by over producing currency. the market makes me think of the sports card business and how it ruined itself by going from 3-5 major card companies making cards to a ton of companies and the major companies like Topps making several different types of cards or Fleer with their normal fleer,fleer ultra etc

[PittsburghAfterDark]

There are too many holes in your theory of a crash and trying to mirror it to 1984. First, game companies are reporting profits and turnarounds. Namco and Square Enix both posted good numbers this week. Midway is in a turnaround and viewed as a hot stock right now. Ubisoft is churning out profits despite the crashes of XIII and BG&E, the Clancy license has proved to be a license to print money. Nintendo is still making money and it's "losses" last year were reportedly due to bad exchange rates. Capcom, Sega and Konami... all profitable. Do I really need to tell you how big EA is??? EB Games posted a 23% increases in sales for 1st quarter year to year despite not having something equivilent of the GBA SP or Zelda: The WindWaker like they did in 2003. How can they be posting that kind of increase with no console or single major title for the quarter if the market is going to bust?

The 1984 crash was precipitated by the home market, not the arcade market. There were a number of factors that caused the crash that will not be repeated.

1. There is not an oversaturation of product. In 1984 you had numerous companies that no one heard of making games for just one console, the Atari 2600. The third party support was not spread out evenly between the Intellivision or ColecoVision and the concentration of games on the 2600 led to a 300% oversaturation of how many games were sold the previous year.

2. You had incredible, nay, colossial disappointments in Pac Man and E.T. they just plain sucked. However not only did they suck, Atari made more Pac Man games then there were 2600's. Now, let's put that in perspective. If there are 30 million PS2's in the U.S. can you imagine Rockstar making 35 million Gran Theft Auto: San Andreas'? No, you can't. Can you imagine them spending $23 to make each of those 35 million games? No, you can't. Can you imagine them releasing that game and having it suck? No, you can't.

3. 1984 in hindsight should have been a transitional year for consoles. We should have been going from the 2600 to the NES like they were in Japan. Instead Atari had no equivilent generational jump in the pipeline. The Atari 5200 was not a generational jump. It was nothing more than the Atari 400/800 computer chipset put in a box without a keyboard, that chipset was designed in 1978. It wasn't a leap. Coleco didn't have the marketshare or gaming library to force a jump with ColecoVision, ditto Intellivision.

I could go on and on with this but the bottom line is while your business may be sucking the market is in fine shape. Best Buy may be selling $5 games but you know what? They're making money too.

[defender]

I think the crash is different but there are similarities. I think it will be obvious that no matter how bad the crash can get that gaming isnt going anywhere.

I thought this statement was so true:
So we have 3 corporate giants fighting for the Top, One boasts A large Libary, One Claims it has more power than the two, and one has all of our favorite classic characters.

The same exact thing could be said of Atari, Intellivision, and ColecoVision from 84.

When games crashed in 84 it was Nintendo that saved the market in 86. There will be something to save us in 2006 and I think it will have online written all over it. You heard it here first.

[Skylander7]

And now, for a different take on things. Sorry for the long post guys, but I'm tired of seeing conspiracy theories and fanboys freaking out (not saying that anybody here did that, its just a common occurance nowadays).

We are nowhere near a crash. However, for some of us nostalgic gamers, our time has just about passed. Let me explain. The Best Buy sale is the result of the Christmas flood. The market was flooded with so many games, yet developers failed to realize that their most profitable market (the casual gamer) spends millions on blockbuster games (such as GTA, Halo, Zelda, Ratchet and Clank 2, Madden, etc) instead of reading reviews; whereas the hardcore gamer who buys those off the wall and unconventional great games makes up 15-20% of the market.

The problem with the video game business is exactly that: It's a business. It's the same reason why you'll likely never see a Chrono Trigger sequel, RPG's without the Final Fantasy name never sell in great numbers, or people don't play Deus Ex Invisible Wars on a console instead of Halo. Its now a full blown entertainment medium, surpassing even the movie industry now in scope and reach. Therefore, companies follow tried and proven success formulas (just as in the movie industry following the "Franchise formula", EA follows the same creed). You will always see a few interesting and innovative games, such as Beyond Good and Evil, Disgaea, Panzer Dragoon, etc. But they won't sell many units except to the hardcore gamer (and then usually only when it drops drastically in price, because the hardcore gamer sees the good games and thus can't afford to buy EVERY game they want). Sadly, the only way that good story and gameplay elements from these outstanding games live is when they are implemented in those larger blockbuster overhyped games that have a greater impact on the market).

Don't believe me? I'm willing to bet that some of you thought that "summons" were this huge monumental groundbreaking event in gaming. To us older guys, they were called Espers in Final Fantasy 6 (III). Our how four player co-op games are a miracle (Ninja Turtles: The Arcade Game. Didn't do it first, but was really successful). So don't think this is an '84 crash waiting to happen. This is a transition period. Sadly, it means fewer fresh ideas, and rehashing of the same ole shit. And even though when you average the price of packaging, marketing, production, development, etc, a game still probably still only averages out to 19.99 per game to make. You expect me to actually believe that a game is $44.00 at cost? It isn't, and that's why this site is here

[pukemon]

oh yeah. something else to note. look at xbox platinum hits. i don't remember if and what the criteria was to qualify as a platinum hit, but look at the platinum hits. how many of those games ARE HITS? more misses than hits if you ask me. sony's greatest hit line is much more enticing and the qualifications usually mean you're buying a game that sold well because it was made well.

[bignick]

An online only console would be sweet. What would that do for B&M stores though? If you just downloaded the games, what would stores do about trade ins? Wow, no more EB or gamestop! Then you would definately go out of business.

[evilmax17]

You know, I STILL don't see whats so great about online gaming. Most of the people who play online are complete assholes, and half of the pull when they're losing anyway. Single player for me!

Nintendo's "Revolution" is hinting that it won't just be a tv console, but who knows what'll end up happening with that. My prediction for the future is we'll see less emphasis on "epic" games that take alot of programming, and more focus on pick-up-and-play games.

Although, Sports games will keep the industry going forever.

[evilmax17]

An online only console would be sweet. What would that do for B&M stores though? If you just downloaded the games, what would stores do about trade ins? Wow, no more EB or gamestop! Then you would definately go out of business.

Ever hear of the Phantom?

[roland13x]

Another piece of my 2-cents, and one that people in this thread have actually added to again and again, is that the market is not going to crash. What'll happen is the guys who make the good games WILL come out on top.

You are all saying you'll go out and spend the $50 on the bigger titles (Halo 2, Doom 3, HL2...) as well as the proven developers (Bioware, Blizzard, Nintendo). These guys will live, and with them, the market will eventually stabilize. Those who make crap games won't be able to anymore (I dare you to find many developers who actually make a second or third title...the ratio of successful devs to failed devs has to be 5-1 or greater).

Quality will win out. However, we, as consumers, will choose what happens. You need to support the things you like and want to see. If you wait for the $20 pricepoint on a title, the industry sees that it isn't a viable situation to release titles like that. Money talks, quality talks.

Again, this is a correction that is well overdue. The company I work for has actually started the "quality over quantity" process over a year ago to great results. It'll shift itself out in the end.

[Skylander7]

Well, I'd buy an online console. Then I wouldn't have some dumbass 3rd key overconfident manager tell me "even though we opened the game, took it home, tried it out, and put it in a paper sleeve after putting our store stickers all over the case, its still new". The game merchant industry is a sick, convoluted, selfish and corrupt thing, and seeing them go down would get me off quicker than a Russian porn star.

Then off to the credit bureaus..... muahahahaha

[defender]

There are too many holes in your theory of a crash and trying to mirror it to 1984. First, game companies are reporting profits and turnarounds. Namco and Square Enix both posted good numbers this week. Midway is in a turnaround and viewed as a hot stock right now. Ubisoft is churning out profits despite the crashes of XIII and BG&E, the Clancy license has proved to be a license to print money. Nintendo is still making money and it's "losses" last year were reportedly due to bad exchange rates. Capcom, Sega and Konami... all profitable. Do I really need to tell you how big EA is??? EB Games posted a 23% increases in sales for 1st quarter year to year despite not having something equivilent of the GBA SP or Zelda: The WindWaker like they did in 2003. How can they be posting that kind of increase with no console or single major title for the quarter if the market is going to bust?

The 1984 crash was precipitated by the home market, not the arcade market. There were a number of factors that caused the crash that will not be repeated.

1. There is not an oversaturation of product. In 1984 you had numerous companies that no one heard of making games for just one console, the Atari 2600. The third party support was not spread out evenly between the Intellivision or ColecoVision and the concentration of games on the 2600 led to a 300% oversaturation of how many games were sold the previous year.

2. You had incredible, nay, colossial disappointments in Pac Man and E.T. they just plain sucked. However not only did they suck, Atari made more Pac Man games then there were 2600's. Now, let's put that in perspective. If there are 30 million PS2's in the U.S. can you imagine Rockstar making 35 million Gran Theft Auto: San Andreas'? No, you can't. Can you imagine them spending $23 to make each of those 35 million games? No, you can't. Can you imagine them releasing that game and having it suck? No, you can't.

3. 1984 in hindsight should have been a transitional year for consoles. We should have been going from the 2600 to the NES like they were in Japan. Instead Atari had no equivilent generational jump in the pipeline. The Atari 5200 was not a generational jump. It was nothing more than the Atari 400/800 computer chipset put in a box without a keyboard, that chipset was designed in 1978. It wasn't a leap. Coleco didn't have the marketshare or gaming library to force a jump with ColecoVision, ditto Intellivision.

I could go on and on with this but the bottom line is while your business may be sucking the market is in fine shape. Best Buy may be selling $5 games but you know what? They're making money too.

I will state again that the crash is more on the supply retail end which was a huge factor for the overall crash of 84. Many places like Sears took a HUGE beating and lots of places went under or at the least stopped selling games. Back then you could return games to the manufacturer or get mark down money. Because of Nintendo this is no longer true. So the loss goes to the retailer. While you are correct that many game publishers are reporting good numbers..those numbers are from some months ago. I am reporting a crash that started 3 weeks ago and is in it's course NOW. It has NOT bottomed out here. While you may think that just because my 1 store is doing poorly that it doesnt reflect the overall market...YOU ARE WRONG. I have many other friends within the industry who report the same thing. It's bad in MANY places in MANY parts of the country.

While there is no one pac-man or ET that doesnt mean there isnt about to be one. Also I don't expect this crash to be the same just similar. I think that overall more games will be produced. What if there are 10 million xbox units in circulation...over the next 6 months there may be in total 50 million games produced. So what if each user only buys 2 games and not 5 over the next 6 months...seems like the same results to me.

As other users are pointing out. Who has the money to buy all the games? Especially at $50. So if no one (or at least only a small percentage) of gamers only buy games at $50 then how will they make money? How will retailers make money. If retailers go under then a break in the supply chain happens and a crash ensues. Which is EXACTLY where we are right now except you don't see it.

[jlarlee]

Maybe the real crash isn't the video game market but the smaller retailors. I bet the internet is a big factor in your shops problem. Most shoppers like to do price comparision shopping. Would you rather spend hours driving around your city or take 3 minutes to check 6 retailors online to see where the best deal is. I know what my choice is. it is also a way for most people to dodge having to pay taxes. i know I personally only go into stores to look at their used games selection and to see if a dumb clerk lowered the game too much. I kind of see the internet acting like Walmart in this instance shoving the little shops aside. Although I do truly believe the game business is not running smoothly

[Skylander7]

Boy, would I pay to beat down the top execs in this industry from all aspects (from development to distribution to retail) with a crowbar.. and make them watch this whole incredible message board drama unravel as it is at this very moment. They could learn a thing or two

[alongx]

Ever hear of the Phantom?

That has yet to be proven - and I don't think anyone will really take to the Phantom.

[rywateska]

A small-scale crash wouldnt hurt me as a consumer too bad at all. I've stacked up on about 15 cheap games that I haven't really spent any time with already. On top of that reduced price games would fuel my library even more. It's sad too that about 14/15 of those games are really fun and great to play while still having ratings of +80%. I feel for the VGD franchise but that's just how the dice are rolled and it's how the world turns. Evolution is the basis for all innovation.

[bignick]

An online only console would be sweet. What would that do for B&M stores though? If you just downloaded the games, what would stores do about trade ins? Wow, no more EB or gamestop! Then you would definately go out of business.

Ever hear of the Phantom?

Thats a computer. I hate gaming with a mouse and kb. Plus I doubt they will be able to break into the market with a lot of impact. For them timng would be everything. If a retail crash happened, then they launched, they could survive.....

[defender]

And now, for a different take on things. Sorry for the long post guys, but I'm tired of seeing conspiracy theories and fanboys freaking out (not saying that anybody here did that, its just a common occurance nowadays).

We are nowhere near a crash. However, for some of us nostalgic gamers, our time has just about passed. Let me explain. The Best Buy sale is the result of the Christmas flood. The market was flooded with so many games, yet developers failed to realize that their most profitable market (the casual gamer) spends millions on blockbuster games (such as GTA, Halo, Zelda, Ratchet and Clank 2, Madden, etc) instead of reading reviews; whereas the hardcore gamer who buys those off the wall and unconventional great games makes up 15-20% of the market.

The problem with the video game business is exactly that: It's a business. It's the same reason why you'll likely never see a Chrono Trigger sequel, RPG's without the Final Fantasy name never sell in great numbers, or people don't play Deus Ex Invisible Wars on a console instead of Halo. Its now a full blown entertainment medium, surpassing even the movie industry now in scope and reach. Therefore, companies follow tried and proven success formulas (just as in the movie industry following the "Franchise formula", EA follows the same creed). You will always see a few interesting and innovative games, such as Beyond Good and Evil, Disgaea, Panzer Dragoon, etc. But they won't sell many units except to the hardcore gamer (and then usually only when it drops drastically in price, because the hardcore gamer sees the good games and thus can't afford to buy EVERY game they want). Sadly, the only way that good story and gameplay elements from these outstanding games live is when they are implemented in those larger blockbuster overhyped games that have a greater impact on the market).

Don't believe me? I'm willing to bet that some of you thought that "summons" were this huge monumental groundbreaking event in gaming. To us older guys, they were called Espers in Final Fantasy 6 (III). Our how four player co-op games are a miracle (Ninja Turtles: The Arcade Game. Didn't do it first, but was really successful). So don't think this is an '84 crash waiting to happen. This is a transition period. Sadly, it means fewer fresh ideas, and rehashing of the same ole shit. And even though when you average the price of packaging, marketing, production, development, etc, a game still probably still only averages out to 19.99 per game to make. You expect me to actually believe that a game is $44.00 at cost? It isn't, and that's why this site is here

How old are you? You call yourself an older gamer but the average age of a gamer is 28. I bet you are younger than that. Older gamers should be about 35. Also I said cost on games is about $42. If you want I can take a scan and post it here for you.

As for fanboys freaking out...wtf are you talking about. No one is freaking out. The game market crashing isnt even close to being the end of the world. As a matter of fact I am glad it's crashing because maybe then some good changes can occur...like quality over quantity. The crash only means that many people will lose money. Gamers in general will totally make out with all the coming discounts but there may be a lull in good games as people who lost money scramble to figure out what to do. In 1985 you could still buy games. Games were still made. Gamers still bought them. But the market suckes ass and lots of business owners lost money. This is exactly what is happening NOW.

This isnt fucking rocket science or a fucking theory. It just takes someone with the proper perspective to see it and to point it out. In a year from now when this thread is here and I we look back you nay sayers will have to kiss my ass and say how you were so wrong. You may even try to edit your ignorant posts.

Sorry for getting so aggro but it's getting late and this thread is getting long.

:-) I say everything with the nicest of intentions so don't feel the need to flame me.

[defender]

and yes B&M retailing is in trouble for media entertainment as games are sold online, dvds are sold at tremendously low margins, and music is simple pirated....

but think of this...online retailer may be the future but while a crash is ensuing everyone with inventory scrambles to sell it because in a heartbeat it can be worthless...so how many copies of the new X game do I buy? All those Ebayers and mom and pop sellers like myself are finding out fast that our once valuable inventory is totally worthless...

I estimate the best buy sale alone has cost me as much as $2000 in list revenue. Anyone who wanted to get freedom fighters just got it at a third of my costs. How can I sell whatever I have in hand now? I sent the Best Buy sale to all my wholesalers and they practically shitted themselves. The pain of having thousands of dollars in inventory that just went to shit because BB decided to move first to ditch out. How can anyone respond to that sale other than to also match and discount? That list of $4.99 games was immense and many of those games were good too and recent.

This is just really bad for those who have a financial stake in gaming...for those that are gamers...this has a positive effect as they can get games cheap and the games that will come out will either be better product or quickly reduced.

[defender]

Also while this best buy sale is happening my site isnt selling squat as anyone with a car and a $10 bill is running to BB.

It's just a chain reaction that's been building up for some time now.

[Ledhed]

Defender, I'm not flaming you, but you can't put up a post that provides your speculative opinion and not expect to get some feedback that doesn't agree with what you are saying. There had to be some people who had a differing opinion, and they wanted to post theirs too. I can understand your frustration with what is happening to your business, but to say that every one is gonna be kissing your ass if they are proven wrong simply doesn't sound like the same person that started this thread. The rest of CAG and I love having someone here who is directly involved in the sale and distribution of games. I don't believe that retail employees (myself included) can provide the same pespective taht you can provide. But that doesn't make you correct by default about this situation. I know you are a good, hard working person who is seeing the fruits of his labor being squandered, but try not to throw hate around. That simply isn't Defender.

[punqsux]

try not to throw hate around. That simply isn't Defender.

actully, that sounds like him :wink:

[defender]

Like I said I was just ranting....

but it's NOT just my perspective...I have conversations with plenty of people in the same situation as me.

If you bought a game that on the 3rd level started to skip and then you had 3 friends who had the same thing then when you went to the store and the person at the counter said it was just your disc that had a problem and there isnt any bug would you believe them???

None of you know what I know.

[defender]

try not to throw hate around. That simply isn't Defender.

actully, that sounds like him :wink:

lol punqsux...you been around long enough to know! I am a hater but I keep it in check here at the site. I got a fucking bad attitude most of the time. I didnt start a magazine named Foul for nothing.

[jpdunphy]

Whether or not a crash is imminent I have no idea but one thing is certain, I have not myself purchased a videogame for full retail price since, I think, Final Fantasy VII or Castlevania:SotN, I don't remember which came later. The fact is, 85 percent of the games I might be interested in WILL get reduced at some point. I received Final Fantasy X-2 for X-Mas, when it was still at the $49.99 price point. I might have bought it then just because I was eager but I knew that eventually it would go down.

Speaking of which, didn't it take like a whole year or more for Final Fantasy X to drop to 39.99? It's only been like six and a half months and X-2's dropped. Soul Caliber II, a brilliant game, can now be bought for $19.99, and we're getting swamped with great deals like the Best Buy and Circuit City deal of yore. Great for buyers, yes, but it's not like game manufacturers will keep pumping out games if they're confident that they'll only end up losing money in the process. They'll say screw it and go home.

And, really, the market is starting to overload. Three major systems, Apextreme, Phantom (which will never come out but still), Gameboy Adv. SP,Nintendo DS, PSP, NGage OD or whatever the hell it's called, it's just too much and the industry just won't be able to support all of these fat, sweaty, pimply faced game companies.

Aw well, smoke 'em if you got 'em.

[Kaijufan]

If innovation and better gameplay is the result of a minor videogame market crash then I hope it happens. I just hope that small mom and pop stores like Defender's store are still around after something like that.

[captainfrizo]

I don't think the industry is going to crash since it's much too profit worthy for the gaming companies (which is why many lousy titles make it to the stores). Individual developers (and retailers) may and will fold over time, but the big players will continue to make money. The problems are the cost of games and the increased number of stores selling them.

Games are expensive, and gamers will try to get the best price. This explains CAG's popularity. Because of these prices gamers can only afford to buy so many games at one time, and with so much retail competition only one store will recieve the money. I've purchased games from EB, Gamestop, Target, Best Buy, Circuit City, Wal-Mart, EA.com, Toys R Us, amazon, and many others in the past six months or so. Those with the lowest price will get my business.

When retailers such as videogamedeals.com are spending more of their available resources for games and Best Buy drops the price for a game, the small guy is going to lose since they likely can't afford the same move without losing a lot more money. Customers will go for the cheapest price (this site is probably the best example of this). The gaming companies aren't suffering from this competition, the retailers are.

I'm sorry you're having difficulties with your store defender. Hopefully things will turn around.

[Ledhed]

If innovation and better gameplay is the result of a minor videogame market crash then I hope it happens. I just hope that small mom and pop stores like Defender's store are still around after something like that.

If we truly want to see this happen, then we should be boycotting budgetware and purchasing games that actually try to bring something new to the table (cough, BG&E, Ico, Rez, cough). My biggest wish is that companies like Acclaim who do nothing but jump on everybandwagon that occurs in gaming go down in flames, and leave it to companies that already know what they are doing and to new developers who are here for love and respect, not money.

So next time you are at Target browsing their markdowns and you see a Mom pick up a game that YOU KNOW is total crap, for God's sake tell her. This is the only way anyone at our level can show publishers what we want. Too often I see posts here where someone talks about how lame a game is, only to say that if it was cheap enough they would buy it. I know this is CAG, but have some standards for what you buy. If all you are gonna do is put it in your 'waiting to play' pile, then maybe you shouldn't buy it. No matter how cheap it is, it is still a waste of money if you either don't play it or if you don't wanna play it.

[Hunter55]

Im not for long posts so ill try an make this short.....

the 3 console game war has repeated itself over and over, and has only once resulted in a industry crash.

the main reason retailers lose money is that good games reduce their price too quickly. ex. PGR2 should've stayed at $50. people woulda still bought it and they coulda made more money off it. If games stayed at their original price longer (like halo), they could make alot of money if they're good.

Console have to wisen up on who they let produce games for a system. Microsoft eliminated competition between the ps2 and xbox rally racing by buying over collin mcrae rally. That ended up hurting them. The game started selling for $20 when it came out. It also came out earlier than rallisport challenge 2. If someone wants to try put a rally raceing game, they will obviously go for the 20$ game. Also, people who are ralli enthusiasts will jump at collin mcrae because it came out first. Most of these people probably wont but rallisport challenge 2 until it drops in price because they will have a game to play in the meantime.

Out of the three systems, PS2 is the worst hardware wise. Gamecube is the worst games wise, and Xbox is the worst fan-based wise. Most people own a ps2 because it came out earlier. People dont notice that 99% of ps2 games have a game of equal or better quality on Xbox. Example:
Socom 2------RainbowSix3
If people could see this, Xbox would dominate, PS2 wouldnt be flooding the market, and it wouldnt be in the state it is in now.

People may try to blame gamecube for all this since it started selling $100 cheaper than the two consoles, but this actually helped the industry. People who want to get into videogames, like children and others, arent going to spend $300 for something they dont even know if they'll like. Alot of people bought gamecubes, and liked the videogaming experience, then bought a new system afterwards.

One very clutch factor is the games. Everyone talks about the crap games messin up the industry, which is tru, but the lack of good games also kills the industry. Someone said it b4, halo2 and gt4 are the only games that people are really looking forward to FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR. Obviously, if any other games come out that they like a little, they will wait for the game to drop in price and then buy it.

And lastly, and i kno everyone'll hate me for this, sites like this that post cheap game deals also hurt the industry. If people didnt kno that a game was on sale at a certain store and they really wanted the game, they would buy it for full price. The stroe they bought it from would profit, and the store that had the sale would also probably profit, because they may end up selling the game for regular price.

[Hunter55]

guess it wasnt that short after all :D

[captainfrizo]

So next time you are at Target browsing their markdowns and you see a Mom pick up a game that YOU KNOW is total crap, for God's sake tell her. This is the only way anyone at our level can show publishers what we want.

I've seen others in stores do this and it usually doesn't work. One time a Wal-Mart employee was pleading to a mom to buy a better game (no lie) that was $3 more. She thought about it for a second went with the cheap game anyway. Parents will buy whatever is cheapest since they usually have no gaming knowledge and think a game is a game. I've offered advice before, and rarely does it work. They usually just pick up another cheap, lousy game, say "thanks" and walk off. ](*,)

[rebenns]

If innovation and better gameplay is the result of a minor videogame market crash then I hope it happens. I just hope that small mom and pop stores like Defender's store are still around after something like that.

If we truly want to see this happen, then we should be boycotting budgetware and purchasing games that actually try to bring something new to the table (cough, BG&E, Ico, Rez, cough). My biggest wish is that companies like Acclaim who do nothing but jump on everybandwagon that occurs in gaming go down in flames, and leave it to companies that already know what they are doing and to new developers who are here for love and respect, not money.

So next time you are at Target browsing their markdowns and you see a Mom pick up a game that YOU KNOW is total crap, for God's sake tell her. This is the only way anyone at our level can show publishers what we want. Too often I see posts here where someone talks about how lame a game is, only to say that if it was cheap enough they would buy it. I know this is CAG, but have some standards for what you buy. If all you are gonna do is put it in your 'waiting to play' pile, then maybe you shouldn't buy it. No matter how cheap it is, it is still a waste of money if you either don't play it or if you don't wanna play it.

This is why I didn't but Wolverine's Revenge, Spongebob, or most of the other Best Buy deals - no matter how cheap, crap is crap.

[Ledhed]

the 3 console game war has repeated itself over and over, and has only once resulted in a industry crash.

Everyone talks about the crap games messin up the industry, which is tru, but the lack of good games also kills the industry. Someone said it b4, halo2 and gt4 are the only games that people are really looking forward to FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR.


When was the last time 3 consoles were competing for market share like they are now? I certainly can't think of anytime but now and the early '80s when systems had been released in such a small time frame and were still competing well with each other after three years of their release.

As for more quality games, we do see plenty of quality games released each year. Unfortunately, they get completely eclipsed by bigger titles and budgetware. This is why PoP and BG&E didn't do well, and both of those games were touted as GOTY by mayn publications.

[PrinceNeil]

QUICK!! Everybody run to GameRush or FYE and sell your games while you still can!! Invest in DVD's, especially PORN!! lol

[pukemon]

hunter any credibility you had went out the window when you said "Gamecube is the worst games wise". xbox has it's problems gamewise too. both are notorious for having a lack of rpgs. and i could go on about microsoft but i won't because i don't care. my xbox will still be colleting dust until i sell it or halo2 comes out.

[PittsburghAfterDark]

To get away from the whole is it crashing/is it not debate I'll go on record with this contribution. More than anything the U.S. market is becoming more like the Japanese market in its pricing structure. Japanese sales charts are weekly, not mothly like the NPD data. A game over there gets 70% of its sales (An example.) in the first 6 weeks and 6 months later that same game is 1,990 yen as opposed to 4,990 yen. Yet no one thinks the market is crashing in Japan. This has been true there since they started selling games on CD.

It no longer costs $24-30 dollars to physically make a large ROM game like in the 16 bit and 64 bit Nintendo systems. You can print a DVD game and the printing costs of the booklet and cover for $5. $7 for a license fee to MS, Sony, Nintendo. Why do you think makers can put out games with modest development costs at $19.99 or 29.99?

So gaming stops working at an independent retailer level. The same thing happened with movie rentals nearly 10 years ago. EB and Gamestop realized what you're realizing now years and years ago. That's why they are admittedly used game stores now.

Last but not least, your analogy with Sears having tons of inventory in the crash? Everybody did. Penney's, Sears, Children's Palace, Circus World etc. some of them aren't around anymore but that's not due to Atari or the crash. Everyone bought into the belief that 20 cartridge makers could have 5% of the market share despite there only being three worth a damn, Atari, Activision and Imagic. Everyone bought into the idea of 30% annual growth, that lead to those huge inventories. No such scenario exists today.

You don't hear Best Buy, CC, EB, Gamestop, Wal Mart and every player in the retailing sector saying "Buy 10,000,000 Halo 2's! because there are going to be 40,000,000 sold this holiday season and we want a 25% share!" This is the kind of stuff that was going on in 1984. That isn't happening now.

Like I said, I feel for anyone whose business is doing poorly but this is not a bust or doomsday scenario.

[Legolas813]

either games are losing quality or people are getting wiser with their money or both...........i remember paying $59.99 for many AAA N64 titles (million sellers which were the same as platinum hits were $39.99 back then)..........anyways, now i hardly even buy a game even for 30-40 bucks.......something obviously has changed with the market or my thinking has changed over the years

[FREAKMIKE3]

LOL, to hear some of you guys, its like chicken little. The sky is not falling. It is summer. Summer has ALWAYS been slow months in the industry. Only when the developers want to push something out that they KNOW will be a hit, will they do it in summer (i.e. wind waker, gba sp). Do I think it is smart to hold releases until christmas? Not for things like Halo 2 and res evil 4. Put it out today and it will sell just as many copies from now til christmas as it would being release in Nov. I think MS is trying to use it to suck up the dollars that might have been spent on games for other consoles during 4th qtr. This causes good games like beyong Good and evil to get lost in the shuffle.

Is it a little slow right now? Yeah. Will it get better? Sure. Places like EB and GameStop, unless something really crappy happens, will not go out of business. The business model isnt supported by new sales. I mean, take fight night for example. It is bought for around $40 wholesale and sold for 50. No margin. Its all about the used. Thats where money is at.

When you see BestBuy clearing games out at $5, dont think of it as a total loss. Someone is paid big money to sit there and do the math of how many copies they sold at full price, and how much can they discount certain games just to get rid of them, and come nowhere close to a lose. Not to mention, even though there were a lot of titles cleared out at BB, I hit the stores sunday monday and today, and there was nothing there. I dont think every store had every title in stock, and then they didnt have them in huge quantity. The BB employees at each store told me they only ahve a few of a few titles to mark down. It wasnt as big of a hit as you guys think. it isnt a last minute cash grab to get out of video games. No matter what they lose, they can make up by selling a tv or refridgerator.

What IS occuring is the end of the life cycle for this generation of game consoles. Prices will start to drop by the end of the year. New games will start coming out at $40 by years end. Retailers are just dumping slow moving skus and getting ready for the new stuff. Think it sounds funny? Its not. Today I am making plans and moving merchandise and preparing my store for what is to come out a year from now. You cant wait til the last minute.



:shock: Looks to be my longest post yet... :P

[roland13x]

By the way, PoP was a success....several million copies across all platforms = good.

This whole thread is pretty embarrassing in some ways. Most of you have no idea what you are talking about, and the few that do are getting shat upon.

[Indiana]

It is true that over production of games is occurring. It is not as bad as the 80's... There are not 100 million copies of Halo waiting for Xboxs to be sold. There are however over 400 titles for the Xbox, GC, and PS2 Each! Most people have more games than they can play. So, the consumer purchased games for $50 at launch because they wanted to play the new hardware. After a few years tons of good inexpesnive games are on the shelf and less people will pay $50 for a game.

The next generation of systems will have a similar cycle. Although I think you will see less people run out to get the PS3 or Xbox 2 or GC 2 than you saw run to get the PS2 this time around. Most gamers are pretty happy with the hardware out and will wait for the next generation systems to be discounted.

I think the crash is going to be in 2005 or 2006. Nintendo and / or Sony are going to feel the pain of the mighty Microsoft Dollar I am afraid...

[Maxwell31]

All this crash talk sounds like gamers just grew up and need to look for a bargain.

Remember when you were a kid and laughed at Mom for clipping coupons? Mom knew what she was doing!

Now as an adult you realize that living on your own, a family, car payments and other adult oriented responsibillities, have to take a back seat to entertainment.

Shit, I would rather have a car under my ass or a house with heat than the newest game title that will be discounted soon anyway.

[defender]

I think if my original post was read again that it still holds well against what many are saying.

I don't agree with any doomsday scenarios. Please do not put words into my mouth.

While I agree also that new games arent what drive a lot of profit and that it's used games that do...well I got news for you. Most people are just selling used games on Ebay, Half.com, Amazon, or message trading boards like here. The used stuff people try to trade to me is the absolute worst garbage. Anything of value gets sold otherwise. Also since consumers have another outlet to trade or sell they want more money hence less profit again for small retailers.

Prince of Persia did sell well in the xmas season but sales quickly dropped off. Also BGAE didnt sell at all for me...I think I sold 2 for the whole season.

I will say this again for the hard of hearing. This crash will mostly affect those with a monetary interest in gaming (i.e. inventory). Which is very few of you. Gamers will get more discounts and certain companies will be losing a ton of money (actually they are losing the money now).

Last but not least, your analogy with Sears having tons of inventory in the crash? Everybody did. Penney's, Sears, Children's Palace, Circus World etc. some of them aren't around anymore but that's not due to Atari or the crash.

Ok...so you say that these companies didn't go out of business because of the 84 crash, so what was the reason? Obviously there are differences but you tend to be overlooking the larger picture. Money is money. Suddenly having a huge amount of worthless inventory is incredibly scary. I would have valued my store inventory at 150k or more about 2 years ago. I think I have more stock now but I would value it at about 1/2 of that. So suddenly my sales are down, margins are down, and my current inventory is being sold at a loss. Now I know I am discussing my one store BUT I know of 8 others who have either folded or are gonna fold this summer...this is just who I know or have heard from. One of my best friends in the wholesale industry who I talk with every day for 8 years told me flat out that sales are about 1/2 in the last 2 months at the wholesale level. No one can move inventory at this time at any reasonable sale price. This is why BB had a $4.99 sale. My buddy told me that he had 3 clients close last month alone. My partner (another biz venture) owns 2 stores in NYC and his sales are down 40% from 2 months ago. I have 10 years of books to make comparisons with and I did better on my 2nd month of business than I am doing this month. Margins were also MUCH better in those days (even 4 years ago). Competition was only locally but now it's practically global...how many here order from Lik-Sang?

I am totally not being some crazed alarmist. I have facts of what's going on. And I will say it again...to the average gamer...it doesnt really matter. The game industry is too big and proven now. It will crash but not burn...instead it will have to be transformed.

[jlarlee]

My question is Defender why are you still in games? i know a few months ago you were considering going into a higher percentage of porn. I have a friend who's dad owns a porn shop and he says business is so good that he could probably retire off of 10 years of sales. What is keeping you in games is it love for games, dislike of selling porn or plain stubborness? If I was in your shoes with a family to support i would read the writing on the wall and go to the more profittable merc. You got to live your dream for a few years which is more than most people can say, but now it might be time to set your family up for the longterm

[defender]

I am getting out of the game business at least for B&M. I hope to maintain the sites since I have so many. In the long run I may not retail either on the web or I may use a dropshipper. I do know that I have a TON of inventory I need to sell before I can get out of the game business and that can take a while.

Also I know games really really well. 10 years of contacts and knowledge...or maybe just simple habit. It's hard to think of my life if I wasn't in games. It would be dull. I don't dislike selling porn at all but to be honest..it's not exactly fun. The customers can be weirdos even more than geeky gamers.

I tried to start a magazine about 4 years ago but it didnt work out. I tried to start some sites but so far they have had mediocre success. I still got some ideas and I am about to try another internet venture with a partner...I try at least. I am very entrepeneurial. I come up with ideas and usually follow them through.

[pete2010]

Hasnt the industry seen an increase in overall sales from year to year for the past 5 years or so, and topping 10 billion gross the last 2 years, if so things are not looking that bad.

[epobirs]

This isn't a big shock. As a really older gamer (staring down 40 in a couple of months and remember when Pong was an arcade phenom. That old enough for ya, Defender?) this is old news. I can remember when there were lots of small neighborhood software stores that offered vastly better service but could never withstand the pressure from big chains and phone/mail order with web sales really driving the final in the coffin. I worked in several such stores in my youth and cannot imagine any of them surviving outside of an isolated small town where they were the only venue. Here in Los angeles the the only small independents survive on their premium services such as building turn-key high-end video editing or publishing systems. The commodity hardware and software are often as not sold for cost just to make the part of the business that generates good margins viable.

A video game store doesn't have many options of that sort. They deal in commodity products with few opportunities to sell services. They can specialize in premium items like obscure titles and imports but that is a limited business at best and still faces severe pressure form from online operations with substantially lower costs combined with deeper pockets to float a deep sunk cost for exotic inventory.

The 1984 crash sent reverberations throughout every branch of retailing that had any connections to the video games. The biggest problem, much greater than Atari's internal debacles, was the lack of control by platform manufacturers over what third parties produced. This meant not even the slighest vestige of quality control and when third parties did produce a good product it was of no direct financial benefit to the platform company other than to help promote hardware sales. This was a minor benefit since the lucrative margins were in software, even in the era before hardware was sold at subsidized pricing.

Nintendo revived the industry not by having good hardware and/or software, any number of companies could have easily done the same, the Nintendo difference was in the business model for how third party support was controlled and made into the primary net revenue source for Nintendo. Once everybody understood this process and why it worked so well the industry as a whole became quite stable and prosperous. Brands have come and gone but the industry has been on a steady growth curve ever since.

[epobirs]

Oops, the following was supposed to be the first section of my post:
The change coming here is the market becoming that much harder for small retailers. The industry will keep moving along but the retail channel will belong almost exclusively to large chains. While there has been much comment on the Best Buy blowout nobody seems to have noticed that (in the locations I've observed) they've already filled out their bins with deeper inventory of major titles that should thin out in time for the vast array of new titles due between now and Xmas. (Over 400 including all four current platforms.) Best Buy has done this sort of thing several times before, especially heading into a generational transition or a platorm doing a crash and burn. (I made about $3000 on reselling Sega Saturn game Best Buy cleared out for between $5 and $10.) They can afford to do this and write it off their taxes. The small independent retailer cannot so easily move ahead. When Best Buy catches a cold the little guys end up bedridden with pneumonia.

[KingDox]

I think where defender is right is indy shops like his are the ones that are doomed(no offense). Just like indy music stores are dying. They have been crushed by places who use the cds, dvds & Games as bait to get you in a store. I can see few game developers going out of busness being crushed by the likes of EA.

I know defender knows more about video games then me, but I don't think the industry will crash like it did in 84. However the BB sale was strange, why didn't they cash out the games at 10 bucks ? Also how the hell can there be 3 EBs & 2 Gamestops in the same general area ? There are so many damn game stores it's nuts. The only b&m indy game store that I've seen last is Games 4 Less.

The BB sale may be a sign of bad things. Like a year before the DC died target sold 5 BIG titles for only 15 bucks a pop. NBA 2k1 (a 50 buck game) had been out only 3 months and they sold it for 15. Also Kmart wasn't selling enough DC games and stoped carrying the product all together. EB has thought about dumping their PC games. So maybe the industry is in a slump but it's a stealth slump that only the indy stores have started to notice.

[Ledhed]

Also how the hell can there be 3 EBs & 2 Gamestops in the same general area ? There are so many damn game stores it's nuts.

You have no idea. I live in the DFW area of Texas, about 4 miles away from GameStop's corporate headquarters. It is ridiculous. There is a GS every friggin' mile. I can think of two areas in my town where there are three (again, that was three) GameStop's within a mile of each other.
Soon enough I'll be able to work from home, because they are gonna open one in my damn living room. It's as though they are trying to compete with themselves. BTW, only one EB in my town. Wanna know why?

[epobirs]

Video game pricing is well overdue for major changes but this well not be of any help to businesses like Defender's. It will improve the video game industry but it won't change the increasingly difficult prospects for small independent stores.

Video game pricing was originally driven by two factors: manufacturing costs for mask ROMs and market potential. ROMs were expensive and the long lead times and volume requirements for achieving the best cost meant that production runs in the early days of a platform could well exceed the installed base. The company had to hope the machine would at a sufficient rate for most of the inventory to sell through at full retail.

Optical media change everything. Per unit costs were but a small fraction of mask ROM and additional discs could be produced at very short notice with little or no cost penalty. Offering small retailers the ability to micro-manage their inventory on a weekly basis was a huge factor in Sony gaining acceptance for the newly launched Playstation in Japan a decade ago.

The primary limit now is market potential. If there are 10 million units of the target platform in homes and your game cost 7.5 million in development and marketing, how many units must be sold at $50 (with your net being, say, $8 ) before this game will be profitable? About 940,000 copies. If you go for a $40 retail with a $6 net will the lower price make for sufficiently greater sales as to achieve greater profits?

Other questions must be factored in, such as the popularity of the genre. If prior well regarded games of the same genre have never exceeded 500,000 in unit sales the chances are the no amount of money pumped into dev and marketing excess is going to to produce a monster hit that exceeds the genre's traditional reach by several multiples. Things like fishing simulators will be relegated to lesser budgets on the expectation that even the finest fishing simulator ever created is still only going to sell well compared to other fishing games.

Most successful games only sellthrough to about 5% of a platforms installed base. In the very early days of a platform there can be (non-bundled) games that reachas high as 90% but if the platform is successful its numbers will increase so greatly that the penetration of that early title will be reduced to the more typical 20% or much less. If the platform isn't successful it hardly matters. There may be a nearly 100% ownership of 'Crazy Taxi' among Sega Dreamcast owners but how many of those discs were sold at a profit rather than as final clearance?

So the anticipated installed base of the platform and the estimated reach of the game put limits on the budgets that allowed if the game is to be profitable. But what really creates the limits on a game's reach? How many gamers rely almost entirely on used games to feed their habit? If the average selling price (ASP) for new games was $24.95 could sell-through levels multiply as fewer gamers wait for used or 'Greatest Hits' pricing while those who were accustomed to paying $50 for a game instead purchase a greater number of games? Could penetration levels of 20% or more become common? For the US PS2 market this would mean games selling around 6 million units, a territory that only GTA III can currently claim.among games still in production.

The actual unit costs for a video game are only slightly higher (measured in pennies) than for a movie on DVD. If the movie includes a significant amount of printed material comparable to the game manual the cost can be considered identical. Numerous direct to video productions have been highly successful with budgets substantially greater than the average video game, especially with marketing costs figured in. The difference is that for someone like Disney a home video moving a million units is only the tip of the sales iceberg. While no one video game platform is likely to achieve an installed base comparable to DVD players it doesn't seem undoable for a company like Square to reach a substantially larger audience if the price resistance is greatly reduced. Likewise the hardware base is likely to achieve greater levels if the greatest longterm cost, the software, is viewed as less painful.

Any one of the platofrm companies could change their price structure at any time and send shockwaves through the industry. It just a question of who is confident and determined enough to make the move.

[Dr Mario Kart]

Regardless of how it goes down, I believe general public opinion is against paying for an online download of a game, without having some sort of physical medium to own. If a game is going to be downloadable, someone will figure out within a few days how to do it for free. I personally boycott all online gaming, because I don't care for any socializing in my gaming and I feel that single player only games are more story driven. If the distribution is forced against the public's will to online only, then in theory there are enough games out right now to keep us all occupied indefinitely.

Haven't there historically been shifts back and forth between gaming being a more hardcore activity vs a more mainstream thing?

I appreciate Nintendo not selling out to the online thing, and sticking to the principle that multiplayer games should be played with people you are sitting next to. If it kills them, fine, I'll enjoy it while it lasts. In theory though, they should be able to survive just fine doing business only in Japan. where Xbox has no appreciable effect.

Japan, half the U.S. population, 9% of unit land per person, ever wonder why the size of the Xbox is a big deal?

[jimbodan]

As much as I dislike the X-Box, I really don't think size is a big reason why it isn't succesfull in Japan.

[epobirs]

It had a hell of a lot more to do with being insufficiently Japanese and having an unpopular genre (for Japan) as its most heavily touted title.

[jimbodan]

It had a hell of a lot more to do with being insufficiently Japanese and having an unpopular genre (for Japan) as its most heavily touted title.

AGREE'D

[Dr Mario Kart]

come on now, thats was a joke you know

[defender]

The 1984 crash sent reverberations throughout every branch of retailing that had any connections to the video games. The biggest problem, much greater than Atari's internal debacles, was the lack of control by platform manufacturers over what third parties produced. This meant not even the slighest vestige of quality control and when third parties did produce a good product it was of no direct financial benefit to the platform company other than to help promote hardware sales. This was a minor benefit since the lucrative margins were in software, even in the era before hardware was sold at subsidized pricing.

This is what is happening now. Many of you acknowledge seeing certain signs of problems or changes. I am seeing rather disturbing things that have drawn me to my conclusion.

Someone mentioned the Saturn games at $5...can you really compare a low selling dead system sale to this BB sale of rather current title? This is what troubles me the most. BB is essentially liquidating almost new releases. So many of those games were rather fresh. Can ANYONE here recall a better sale than this one? I personally can't. The big TRU buy 2 get 1 free was really good but this pales in comparison. $4.99 OMG...how many of you dropped what you were doing and ran to a BB?

At least this is one of the most intelligent threads I have seen here at CAG and I thank everyone for their input and posts. Good work guys on having a cool debate.

[bmulligan]

There weren't THAT many new titles being liquidated. And it still isn't happening in my areas in SE Detroit area. 90% of the clearance titles were dust collectors in the first place: Blowout, hotwheels, hulk,. power puff girls, TMB, XRGA, whiplash, harry potter? Most of these have been in the clearance bin at Target for many moons now. Theres only limited shalf space for the number of new releases and I think retailers are going to be more selective in the titles they decide to stock. This could be a very good thing for the industry.

I'm really sorry to hear about your trouble Defender, but that's the nature of the business with inventories that have a steep depreciation curve. The same thing happened to all the Indy PC shops throughout the evolution of the PC. When inventory is so volitle in the first place, only the big boys can afford to absorb the potential losses.

Doesn't the VG industry always lag in the summer? Kids play outside in the summer, go to movies, spend their money on other stuff like bikes, cars, and other nefarious activities. Then during the fall and winter season that money gets pointed toward indoor activities like gaming.
Then Christmas is just around the corner to get your majority of profit for the year.

I think theories about an outright crash are premature, though. There is a userbase of 150 million console users. That market isn't just going to disappear. There are companies that will be there to meet the demand, unless the economy takes a shit and people don't have as much disposable income anymore. With gas prices rising things don't look promising, but they seem to be stable for now and I'd expect the economy to get stronger through the summer before the election (It usually does in an election year). I think it's just going to be a dip in the industry, which has the potential to get worse if they keep announcing new hardware in 2005. People will stop buying as much so they can wait for a new console, i.e. the Dreamcast phenomenon.

[ragepower]

EB Games just reported its best first quarter ever.......

[thingsfallnapart]

Actually there was a better sale then this one. The Citcuit city buy 3 games get 10 dollars off, combined with the save 50% on certain clerence games sale, could bank you 3 dollars a game if you knew the rite combinations. For instance i got Gitaroo Man, Wave Race bluestorm, and Headhunter for 10 bucks.

[schultzed]

I was thinking about a crash will how heavy the discounts are getting . . .

I think there are some differences now . . . the industry is doing well . . . there are too many titles, too many publishers, perhaps too many systems.

The industry is definitely more mature now . . . but this is a tough part of the system cycle . . . there are tons of extra games out there now (used and clearance) and interest is waning because gamers are now waiting for the next big thing.

It is tough for a game to get noticed when everyone flocks to the big guns . . . there is no doubt that Halo 2, Zelda, Metroid, Jak 3, etc . . . will sell but it makes it hard for even a game like Prince of Persia to sell.

$40 is a decent price point (with a $5 coupon) getting a game like Ratchet and Clank for $35 is a good deal. Sony was smart to go to $40 for first party titles, this helped them cement their lead.

I think its more of a shakeout than a crash . . . EA will be fine, but don't expect all small players to survive without help . . . (Sony, Nintendo, or Microsoft cash infusions).

The idea of Nintendo or Microsoft dropping out on the hardware market is interesting . . .

[thingsfallnapart]

Microsoft won't drop out of the hardware market. They don't have anything to fall back on like nintendo does (handhelds and first party software that can go third like nintendo.)

As soon as sega announced it sold to sammy, things started to go down hill quite a bit. For everything i mean, not just sega. Hey at least sega had the balls had to try new games with some good ideas that never got over.

Look no furthur then madden 2004 and espn football last year. Madden 2004= same old rehash garbage for 50 bucks.

Espn footballl had the first person football mode that was a big innovation in the football gaming department. what sold? madden of course. People dont like new or different, they feel more confident confining their money in sequels.

[wubb]

It is definitely interesting to get the perspective of someone who has been on the retail side (and successfully) for a decade.

Personally I haven't thought a crash is coming given how many people own a video game console. It is mainstream and not just something only kids own now. But I don't really follow the industry side of things.

I will say that given how quickly games fall in price, it makes me very reluctant to pay $50 for a game. I mean PGR2 dropped to $30 after just a few months. There is no way I'd pay $50 for the Rallisport game Microsoft just put out. I'd bet it will fall to $30 as well just as fast.

But personally I am very cheap, especially with games. If I can get a pretty good game for less than $20 (and I can probably think of at least a dozen titles I don't currently own I could order any time at that price point), I'm probably not going to pay $50 even for a really great game. Right now I have over 40 Xbox games and I've paid on average $9 per.

***Edited to remove a few 'definitelies' from the post.***

[Aryss]

Being an older gamer, I have more responsibilites and less disposable income. I used to be able to buy 10 games a month easily but now I have to make decisions. I have over 200 games right now and I haven't even played 90% of them. I buy them to avoid missing out on them, it's a sickness. I have always considered $50.00 a game too high. No game should be higher than $40.00 and I think sport titles should only be $30.00 at best. I remember an economics teacher telling me that people see prices in a certain way. They see 50 as half of a 100 and that is considered too high. But 40 is not. I caught myself saying I can buy 3 $40 games for $120 and that is only $20 higher than $100. It's a matter of perception. My cousin worked at GS so he would get me games when they used to get 25% off so a new game was $37.50 for me and I would buy a lot more. The games industry seems to ignore the fact that the economy is down and that videogames are a luxury, not a necessity. I would love to buy more games but I need to have electricity to play them. I believe in supporting developers and I will never buy a burned game but they make it too hard. Games are shorter now and I'll be damned if I am paying $50 for a six hour ride. I remember seeing someone at DICE saying something about, "what does it take to sell a game these days" He was referring to so many great games that didn't sell for no reason. It's a shame that you need sex and violence to sell games. I used to tell people how bad BMX XXX was but they still bought it when I worked at EB. I have been reduced to waiting for the drop now, and I am less willing to take a chance on a game since I am stuck with it. Hopefully the industry will realize and make some positive changes. Look at the difference in sales of the Xbox and GC when they droppped the price. Downloadable games are not quite right yet, and the Phantom is a disaster waiting to happen.

[alongx]

So next time you are at Target browsing their markdowns and you see a Mom pick up a game that YOU KNOW is total crap, for God's sake tell her. This is the only way anyone at our level can show publishers what we want.

The problem is that a lot of parents want to get their kid a game but don't want to spend a lot of money on it. I've tried talking to parents I see with shit games in stores, and they always give me B.S. "well this is the game my kid really wants" routines, when we all know that no kid wants Evolution Skateboarding or Big Mutha Truckers.

[rsigley]

i don't want to pry too much into your business, but i was wondering does your website do a lot of sales, espically from non-CAG's or is most of your business from the store? You don't have to answer was just curious about how many people cause my friend is thinking about opening a website for his store because like you he's only made $220 in sales the last 3 weeks (and that's only like $15 profit or something insane he was telling me), so he's panicing.


i think one of the problems now with VG market is the had such a huge year last year (even did better than movie businessm 14 billion in sales or something), but now there hasn't been any big titles so far this year most are coming out in Q4 so have to struggle til then.

[jlarlee]

The one thing that blows my mind about the $4.99 is that at that price it would be cheaper to buy the game than to rent it. I don't think I have ever seen that with games on a current system

[thingsfallnapart]

<The problem is that a lot of parents want to get their kid a game but don't want to spend a lot of money on it. I've tried talking to parents I see with shit games in stores, and they always give me B.S. "well this is the game my kid really wants" routines, when we all know that no kid wants Evolution Skateboarding or Big Mutha Truckers. >

you have to look at the other side of the coin, on the parents behavior.

Alot of places like circuit city, best buy, and toys r us have employees who nothing about the video games they sell. When a parent or person asks if a certain game is good, they always say "yes."

eventually the game sucks and you lose your trust in asking employees. Ya i understand it hurts when they don't trust you, but don't take it personal, understand their side too.

[otz]

I think the drop in hardware and software prices are a result of competition, not a "crash". Competition is good for the consumer. Traditionally, the industry profits have been inflated by lack of competition.

Like a friend of mine used to say (who is a pc gamer and not a console gamer because of cost): "I don't like console gaming because the games are much more expensive. I can get a PC game weeks after it came out at a discounted price. You never see console games go down in price."

This was before there were so many $19.99 budget titles. And it wasn't until recently that ANY console games would be discounted unless they were "greatest hits". Now you see games even being released below industry standard price, and sometimes great games go on sale soon after they're released. This is what PC gamers have enjoyed for so long.

IMO, these lower prices are a normal result of competition and not a market crash. For retailers to survive in a competitive market, they obviously need to compete. Maybe buying a product at $42 and trying to sell it for $50 is not very competitive.

[Aryss]

I tried to warn parents about GTA at Christmas but they kept saying it was on their kids list. I remember two mothers coming back really pissed off at me for selling such garbage. I of course told them they were warned, and proceeded to quote return policy about open games. I never took it personally since they were poor parents that didn't take an interest in their kids hobby. On the other hand, I had some parents thank me for warning them and taking the time the explain it. They didn't buy the games which upset the kid. It all balances at the end I guess.

[Aryss]

I think the drop in hardware and software prices are a result of competition, not a "crash". Competition is good for the consumer. Traditionally, the industry profits have been inflated by lack of competition.

Like a friend of mine used to say (who is a pc gamer and not a console gamer because of cost): "I don't like console gaming because it is much more expensive. I can get a PC game weeks after it came out at a discounted price. You never see console games go down in price."

This was before there were so many $19.99 budget titles. And it wasn't until recently that ANY console games would be discounted unless they were "greatest hits". Now you see games even being released below industry standard price, and sometimes great games go on sale soon after they're released. This is what PC gamers have enjoyed for so long.

IMO, these lower prices are a normal result of competition and not a market crash. For retailers to survive in a competitive market, they obviously need to compete. Maybe buying a product at $42 and trying to sell it for $50 is not very competitive.

The problem their is that they buy it at 42 but if a price war breaks out then they have to lower it to sell it. So if a game dropes to 30 in a month then they take the loss since they already paid for it and it is in their inventory. This is where the industry has to get involved and lower to costs to retailers. If I bought 100 copies of Metroid Prime at $4200 then it dropped to 30 a piece in a price war, then I take a loss of 12 per title at whatever I have left over in inventory.

[epobirs]

For my own purposes I can quite quickly recall a better sale than this. A few years ago Sears was blowing out games like it was the end of everything. PSX and N64 games for $10, Dreamcast games for $15. Many of these games were major titles still selling for full price at the big chains. For instance, FFVIII.

Things were a bit different then with no dedicated web sites turning this sale into into an overnight clearance. Instead I was able to take the better part of two weeks to check out all of the Sears locations in Southern California. I put about 6K on a credit card buying all of this stuff and by the time I'd moved it all through Ebay had netted enough to move up a tax bracket if the IRS had known.

This worked out extremely well for me and will always stand out in my memory. I got a fair of items for my personal collection from BB this week but nothing I wouldn't have eventually found for a slightly higher price. It was more convenient for BB to do a greater markdown and allow the Internet to sweep that inventory out of the stores practically overnight than to go the traditional $9.99 route and have these title malingering and polluting the ASP of their bins for weeks. A majority of BB's customer base will never know this blowout occurred and won't be standing around waiting for the next. They'll go to their location when it's time for Junior's fix and plunk down $40 to $50 just like they always have.

At least nobody realizes what K-Mart is doing. Those stores are so depressing that I only recently forced myself to go in there just to see what was marked down. Much to my surprise their was a clearance shelf located well away the game cabinets and very easily overlooked. There I found a remarkable spread of $7.99 games for all three consoles. A few years ago this would have been a major Ebay score for me but word gets out too quickly and just isn't sufficiently profitable to go through the hassle anymore.

[meteors]

I don't see a crash coming at all.

Things are slowing for SURE - there aren't any new consoles to boost sales, it's now SUMMER TIME when few AAA titles get released, and the economy is in the shitter. People don't have $50 laying around like they did a few years ago.

But compared to other entertainment industries like the music biz or Hollywood, the game industry is doing GREAT.

There's a major difference about the way games are sold versus music or movies. Games are expected to drop in price to make room for new games. CD's are always roughly the same price even if they're 10 years old. This means to have a good selection at a music or movie store you have to stock, and keep in stock, much more then a game store. That makes things a whole lot more expensive in other ways and is one good thing about selling games instead. A game has about one year to make it's money then it's gone.

I think there's going to be more distinctions between AAA titles and "budget" games. Right now the consoles don't have that jewel-case budget rack but who knows, in a year maybe it will?

[bvaldez]

I've read through, and I can't recall a response with regards to another factor in the problem: the online gaming boom.

My girlfriend has a 16-year-old brother who plays SOCOM II like it's going out of style. At least 4 hours a day during school days... and now that school's out, his friends bring over their PS2's and they have SOCOM parties well into the night. She called it a "sickness" when we were in EB on Sunday.

And how would this pose a problem? Well, where would they find the time to play anything else with games that not only offer replay value on its own, but also offer the ability to play others around the country -- especially if the online aspect is addictive? It kinda puts a hamper on sales of games that, while, wonderfully constructed, have limited replay value beyond the first or second runthroughs. My girlfriend says her brother plays the shit out of games for three weeks, and dumps it forever -- but he's been playing SOCOM II since its release date. It may not be a typical instance, but it can't be that uncommon.

[Medium_Pimpin]

Sorry for your financial woes Defender, but like you said:
All we need is Doom 3 and Half Life 2 to get us through the storm(as gamers).

[Cornfedwb]

I didn't read this whole thread.. but has anyone noticed that where in the early 90s we were paying $50-$70 per game for SNES and Genesis games... now with much higher development costs and inflation, we're paying $30-$50 per game. I understand wanting to get a good deal, but all this talk about prices being too high makes me laugh.

By the way, not factoring in development costs, just pure inflation.. that $50 game in 1990 should be costing us $69.67 in 2002.

http://westegg.com/inflation/ in case you want to know how I got that number.

[jlarlee]

I didn't read this whole thread.. but has anyone noticed that where in the early 90s we were paying $50-$70 per game for SNES and Genesis games... now with much higher development costs and inflation, we're paying $30-$50 per game. I understand wanting to get a good deal, but all this talk about prices being too high makes me laugh.

By the way, not factoring in development costs, just pure inflation.. that $50 game in 1990 should be costing us $69.67 in 2002.

http://westegg.com/inflation/ in case you want to know how I got that number.
You are forgetting that SNES was a cartridge system much more expensive to produce

[meteors]

Genesis games were NEVER above $50 if I remember correctly. Stupid Nintendo thought they could get away with charging $70 for some games (I remember FF2 was $70 and thta was insane) until they started to realize their competition was benefiting from those prices.

[MaxBiaggi3]

I'd like to point out that it was only a few years ago when the PS2 first came out that most major retailers (TRU, BB, CC, etc.) were advertising all of their PS2 games at the "everyday low price of $49.99" like it was some kind of bargain or something. For me, $50 has always seemed like a lot of money to pay for just one game, so I simply didn't buy a whole lot of new games back then (couldn't afford to).

Today, it's still difficult to find many good games used (much less new) for $5, so when a place like BB has a $5 clearance sale, consumers would be foolish not to take advantage of it. However, I do realize such practices can hurt smaller shops financially, and I can sympathize with those it affects. The handful of independent shops I deal with also carry new and used CDs, DVDs, VHS tapes, etc., so hopefully such diverse inventories will be enough to help them through the tough times. I'd certainly hate to see them go out of business.

[Cornfedwb]

I didn't read this whole thread.. but has anyone noticed that where in the early 90s we were paying $50-$70 per game for SNES and Genesis games... now with much higher development costs and inflation, we're paying $30-$50 per game. I understand wanting to get a good deal, but all this talk about prices being too high makes me laugh.

By the way, not factoring in development costs, just pure inflation.. that $50 game in 1990 should be costing us $69.67 in 2002.

http://westegg.com/inflation/ in case you want to know how I got that number.
You are forgetting that SNES was a cartridge system much more expensive to produce

And the average development team for a game produced now is atleast 10 times as large (if not larger). I'd think that offsets the cost of producing a cartridge versus a disc. Quite honestly we should be paying for for games than we are, there's no explanation I've seen explaining why $50 is too high (other than 'I don't want to pay that much')

[JSweeney]

Genesis games were NEVER above $50 if I remember correctly. Stupid Nintendo thought they could get away with charging $70 for some games (I remember FF2 was $70 and thta was insane) until they started to realize their competition was benefiting from those prices.

You don't remember correctly. The Phantasy Star games were just as expensive as any of the SNES RPGs with higher price tags.

[jerryenzyme]

Genesis games were NEVER above $50 if I remember correctly. Stupid Nintendo thought they could get away with charging $70 for some games (I remember FF2 was $70 and thta was insane) until they started to realize their competition was benefiting from those prices.

Phantasy Star 2 and 3 debuted at $80 in most places, and Phantasy Star IV was $100. Virtua Racing was also $100. Most Genesis games were equal in price to any SNES game.

[simpsonps121]

It wont wipe out the developers in this crash as much as the retail supply change. Kiss the mom and pops goodbye and even places like gamestop and eb may end up going online only. What's the point of them having stores anyways?

And Pukemon..I been saying this for months. A $30 price point would be great and also they need to stop the price dropping. I am sure that won't be a popular thought here. When Nintendo controlled the pricing and supply it all went smooth but with Sony and MS flooding the market and allowing any crappy cheap game to be mass produced....it's all crap now. Games are getting to a discount level so fast now.

As for the scam that ChrisXE has going on..sure that's fine for the couple hundred a month you make for yourself and you're part of the problem not the solution. I was making over $1 million a year in sales but now I am less than half that. I don't even want to embarass myself by saying how much money I make. Let's just say if I worked at McDonalds I would make more.

I may be way off, I may be wrong, but I think Nintendo was penalized by the goverment for price fixing. (About 2 or 3 years ago...)

So, they have to allow for the retailers to sell at different price points. And drop the prices accordingly.

Just my 2 cents.
Matthew

[BigDirty]

I may be way off, I may be wrong, but I think Nintendo was penalized by the goverment for price fixing. (About 2 or 3 years ago...)


a decade and change, like 12 or 13. I forget when exactly it was, but it was in the late 80s. Pick up a copy of Game Over, the story of Nintendo, for more info on the lawsuit.

[simpsonps121]

Ah, thanks for the correction. I thought I heard of it... I must have heard of it 2 or 3 years ago. heh

Take Care,
Matthew

[pook]

i actually agree with defender, and have been saying the exact things on another message board. i recently started a thread there where i'll let the facts speak for themselves:

http://www.gamerankings.com/itemrankings/MessageDetail.asp?itemid=-1&topicid=59985&sort=&pagenum=1

this is the "doom thread" which means i'm not posting good news. of course some companies are making money. eb, for instance. they may be one of the few companies to come out unscathed as they and gamestop come out as the blockbuster videos of the game world. but there is a lot of bad news coming out. the idea that the game industry is booming is overall false. money is being made, but companies are falling into hard times left and right.

this crash will not be the same as the 84 crash, but it will nevertheless be a crash.

the thread is mainly a place to collect articles on doom. if you see some, post them there and i'll add them.

[Captain J]

In '84 people just got fed up with all the games with limited goals and expensive price tags, if you asked someone to pay 50 bucks for Colecovision's Smurf adventure today you'd probably be laughed at and beaten to death.

that game f'n rules! a precursor to super mario perhaps?

[KingDox]

Look even back in the day I was a CAG. When I read this I went to target first thing the next monrning. This sale is the only one that comes close to the BB clearance in my memory. And this sale was like 8 months before sega said they would stop making games for the DC.

http://dreamcast.ign.com/articles/090/090652p1.html

[defender]

EB Games just reported its best first quarter ever.......

Umm no they didnt.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/040520/retail_electronicsboutique_earns_2.html

[bignick]

EB Games just reported its best first quarter ever.......

Umm no they didnt.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/040520/retail_electronicsboutique_earns_2.html
some one needs to learn the difference between revenue and profit.

[defender]

For my own purposes I can quite quickly recall a better sale than this. A few years ago Sears was blowing out games like it was the end of everything. PSX and N64 games for $10, Dreamcast games for $15. Many of these games were major titles still selling for full price at the big chains. For instance, FFVIII.


This was after PS2 came out though...It's expected of retailers to clear the shelves for a next gen system. I see no reason for BB to go to $4.99 on these games other than they dont think they will sell fast enough otherwise and they need the cash. There isnt many titles coming this summer so why not just slow sell and then have a sale in couple months? This is what worries me...they might start doing more of these $4.99 sales during the summer which will deflate inventory value even more and raise gamer expectations of getting games cheap. Like many hear have said. They will not pay $50 for a game anymore and I have been seeing this in my store most of the year. Customers used to buy 2-3 games a month at $50 but no more....they expect them at $20 or less now.

[defender]

I think theories about an outright crash are premature, though. There is a userbase of 150 million console users. That market isn't just going to disappear.

I never said the market would disappear. As a matter of fact I think the market would get stronger by xmas in some ways but that the supply chain is breaking apart which could create some weird effects.

[Roufuss]

For my own purposes I can quite quickly recall a better sale than this. A few years ago Sears was blowing out games like it was the end of everything. PSX and N64 games for $10, Dreamcast games for $15. Many of these games were major titles still selling for full price at the big chains. For instance, FFVIII.


This was after PS2 came out though...It's expected of retailers to clear the shelves for a next gen system. I see no reason for BB to go to $4.99 on these games other than they dont think they will sell fast enough otherwise and they need the cash.

THe ENTIRE reason Best Buy had the 4.99 sale was too clear out inventory of games that had been rotting on the shelf for nearly a year. Look at the list of games, and almost every game on there was nowhere near a hit seller, and just sat there on the shelf. Best Buy has a teeny tiny section for games, and alot of stores were complaining that they were running out of room for new games because of the stuff that just rotted on the shelf.

It was no panic sale, it was a "lets go ahead and get rid of this crap so we finally have room for titles that sell" sale.

If EB or Gamestop ever announced a huge 4.99 sale, THEN I'd be worried.

[PsyClerk]

BB deals with products other than video games, so I don't think they need the cash. I think the point that BB isn't a game exclusive store should be considered when you look at their sale. My nearest BB dedicates less than 10% of the store to console games. I don't see it as a major thing to them. They have more computer games than all the consoles combined.

I would also suggest we look at the actual titles that have been marked down. Most are garbage, and many of them have been available at sub-$20 price points for a long time. I counted three dozen of the PS2 titles then stopped looking. There's a frenzy on this site, sure, but this CAG. People are happily buying Mary Kate&Ashley games, Haunted Mansion, and other crap that they would not normally buy, but it's a cheap game so those folks don't care. I see maybe four games at most that offer a serious savings (more than $15) vs any other major retailer.

If the point is that independent stores are suffering and are dying, then I can see that. But it's not just happening in the games business. The internet and globalization is making that happen in just about every market. Blame it on expanded boundaries of competition.

[btantra]

I would partially blame it on the economy right now. Back in the SNES and Genesis days, games are more expensive (high profile ones). But people still bought the games. I think that's because of their better financial life. Look at it now, gas prices are way up and it's giving a horrible time for commuters. i spent about 40 miles a day on the road and believe me, gas prices are killing me.

Most games that I played are Gameboy games. It's very rare that I am willing to pay $29.99 let alone $39.99 for a gameboy game. I think Gameboy games should be priced $14.99 (low profile puzzle games) to $24.99 (high profile games eg. Pokemon, FFTA).

Nintendo is going to "re-release" their NES collection for $19.99 a pop for GBA. I just think that it's outrageous. Their production cost should be very low that they should be able to sell each at $9.99 or $14.99.

So, IMHO, the market crash is possibly caused by:

1. Poor Economy
2. High Gas Prices
3. Greedy companies

Again, that's just my 2 cents

[PsyClerk]

Nintendo is going to "re-release" their NES collection for $19.99 a pop for GBA. I just think that it's outrageous. Their production cost should be very low that they should be able to sell each at $9.99 or $14.99.

To hell with that, they should put all those games on one cartridge and sell it for $10.

[meteors]

Genesis games were NEVER above $50 if I remember correctly. Stupid Nintendo thought they could get away with charging $70 for some games (I remember FF2 was $70 and thta was insane) until they started to realize their competition was benefiting from those prices.

Phantasy Star 2 and 3 debuted at $80 in most places, and Phantasy Star IV was $100. Virtua Racing was also $100. Most Genesis games were equal in price to any SNES game.

Virtua Racing was NOT $100 and I know this because I bought it the day it came out. It was $50 just like every other game. After the Genesis version the 32X version came out later that year and the Genesis one was so cheap that I was angry I bought it just a few months earlier.

Genesis games were on the whole, cheaper than SNES games. I don't know about Phantasy Star games because I never played those but the Genesis had a much better selection of games on the cheap.

[SolinariDotCom]

oh yeah. something else to note. look at xbox platinum hits. i don't remember if and what the criteria was to qualify as a platinum hit, but look at the platinum hits. how many of those games ARE HITS? more misses than hits if you ask me. sony's greatest hit line is much more enticing and the qualifications usually mean you're buying a game that sold well because it was made well.

There's a reason for that - and it's Microsoft's fault. They use the Platinum Hit line to garner attention to games - not great games that qualify like Sony or Nintendo's priceline. This was clearly visible when the PH line was initially announced.

The BB sale may be a sign of bad things. Like a year before the DC died target sold 5 BIG titles for only 15 bucks a pop. NBA 2k1 (a 50 buck game) had been out only 3 months and they sold it for 15. Also Kmart wasn't selling enough DC games and stoped carrying the product all together. EB has thought about dumping their PC games. So maybe the industry is in a slump but it's a stealth slump that only the indy stores have started to notice.

My EB actually just started carrying PC games (and quite a bit of them). Strangely, the Gamestop across the mall has reduced their PC section by 60-70%.

[rocksolidaudio]

After reading all this, all I can say is, buy some damn games from Defender's store, and let's help stop this crash. I bought the mega-ultra pelican system switcher a couple days ago for $75 from him, that's a great frigging deal.

[rimsforsale]

first of all let me say that i agree $50 is way too expensive for a new title, but history finds a way to repeat its self.

i was in the retail business 2 year ago, and i also purchased new titles that msrp'd $49.99 for $42, i remember i bought Metro Prime @ $43 a pop + shipping. that period was probably the apex of my business, and got out soon after. business wise, i think this would be correct way of dealing, from manufacture to wholesale to retail. keeps the bunch in business, but major retail chains would always have a way to break that. they'd rather bring in customers by losing profit on a specific title. but now as a hobbist i would rather jump on these deals and walk out of stores knowing that they lost money, delima delima...

i feel the econ matters + gas prices have little to do with the gaming industry. the media and large retail chains actually cheapened the industry. most ppl blame the internet, but think of it this way. bootlegging was going on during the famicom days, and i remember coughing up major dough for this floppy drive for the famicom. i bought bootleged floppys but at the same time, titles that were worth the money like Dragon Warrior, Final Fantasy i bought the cart, because i wanted to have the actual item, instead of the ugly floppy.

all of this process went through the local gaming stores, and it kept the stores in business. the mom n pop shops still stocked carts for their new customers (they only sold bootlegs to ppl they've knew for a while) and therefore keeping the cycle going. now customers have no sense of relationship with their dealers, because they can just dl the game, buy it online, or walk in to any game chain on the corner of their block, mind i add that employees change constantly in BB, GS, CC, EB, ect... no sense of connection.

maybe im getting to sentimental on this subject, but i would pay extra for a certain thing if i knew the owner(mom n pop shop) is putting it to good use, like paying the rent, feeding their kids. and for sure they would hook you up for it too. i hope Defender feels me on this one, do you not have long time customers that will come to browse, jus because you two became friends? nothing feeds an industry like customer relations.

our society have became so disconnected. its really no wonder the game industry would crash. most younger kids now look at games for gore, how mainstream it is, and if it fits to their "style". its no wonder matrix revo sold like porno, while viewtiful joe's sales looked like a report from a used car lot.

IMO the games will keep comming, i strongly believe most developers have a passion for games, and its their "leaders" that pushes on revenue and image. but if the games dont get meaning-full quick, ppl are just going to bootleg away. y do you think dragon force is worth so much today? just because its rare? also cause its a damn good game, i was hooked on it when it came out, and i bought it MSRP not knowing anything about it, just because my local game dealer said "trust me on this, son. its really worth the money, its no shaq-fu"

[epobirs]

Meteors, you either got a great deal on Virtua Racing or you're memory is faulty. This game was indeed up around $90. Sega tried to emulate nintendo's 3D efforts with the FX chip used in Star Fox and other SNES games. Rather than have a custom part developed as Nintendo did through Argonaut they used an off the shelf part that had a lot of unneeded functionality and was quite expensive. Additionally they didn't see fit to make a large commitment and thus didn't get a very good price on the chip.

Virtua Racing for the 32X was normally priced as no special added hardware was needed in the cart.

There were numerous Genesis games that exceeded the $50 price point and for the same reasons games did on the SNES. These were driven by the cost of large ROMs in small production runs. Large for that era, that is. This includes a lot of the more obscure titles such as KOEI's war games and others with a very limited US console audience. These types of games were common on computers but in Japan computer ownership was much lower and thus the market for those genres was greater on console there.

On the SNES games like Final Fantasy II were expenisive for good reason. The game used an 8 megabit ROM which was a premium item at the time, had higher than normal localization cost due to the amount of text, and a small production run due to the expectation of a very small US audience.

Street Fighter II was another of those pricey SNES carts but again it was pushing the edge for ROM capacity at the time and demand was such that it exceeded Nintendo's production allocation. (This used to be a major issue for third party publishers. If you had a major hit on your hands and you couldn't get Nintendo to allow you enough production you could lose your momentum before the next production run became available. Nintendo was very cautious both of overconfident publishers saturating stores with junk and of letting any one third party become too dominant.)

[littlemonkey]

Although a "crash" is always a slight possiblity these reports don't indicate that is where we are headed.

Electronics Boutique Reports Record First Quarter Sales, Increasing 23%
Video Game Software Sales Grew 28%
Global Store Base Increased to 1,623
http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/ir_site.zhtml?ticker=elbo&script=410&layout=0&item _id=574057

GameStop Corp. Sales Increase 16%; Video Game Software Increases 21%; GameStop Opens 103 New Stores in First Quarter
http://www.gamestop.com/investor-relations/

littlemonkey

[Doylerulez]

This is a very well thought out topic, so I hope I don't sound repetitive.

I found an interesting article about the status of the industry and a prediction of a crash before 2005. I don't want to steal credit so I'll just quote a few things until I can find a link.
Compare Madden NFL 2001 to Madden 2004. You have to squint to tell the difference. Do you think innovations for Madden 2007 will be startling by comparison? I'll never forget the IGN Madden 2002 screenshot with a caption pointing out that it would be the first Madden to depict players' arm hair.
Video games are not the new Hollywood. Hollywood is the new Hollywood. Films (well, good films) present their tales with masterful pacing and suspense and actors we love. Films are relying on an art form (drama) with a thousand years of popularity under its belt.

Games try to trump that with interactivity, letting you control the outcome. But the more control the gamer has, the more the pacing is ruined by brainless repetition (leaving the task to the gamer presents the possibility the gamer will fail 30 times in a row).

If they make the game tasks easier (as not to bring the game to a screeching halt), the gaming experience becomes much too short to justify the $50.00 pricetag. And the more interactivity is taken away in favor of pacing and pre-rendered cinemas, the more they stop being video games
We Original Gamers, the hard core, bought every machine that came on the market for two decades. But for most of us OG's, the game consoles we own now will be the last we'll ever buy. There are millions of us, and it's just a matter of time.

If I'm right about this, the gaming industry is about to face its first real exodus of existing customers, a hard-core group they've relied upon for decades to snap up every new box on the shelf. And if the young kids don't see anything new and novel in this next round of machines...

Edit Found link: http://www.pointlesswasteoftime.com/games/crash.html

[defender]

After reading all this, all I can say is, buy some damn games from Defender's store, and let's help stop this crash. I bought the mega-ultra pelican system switcher a couple days ago for $75 from him, that's a great frigging deal.


This is the smartest thing said so far in this thread!

http://www.videogamedeals.com/product_info.php/products_id/1439

Use freetoship to get free shipping on a rather heavy item.

In all seriousness though...I am really proud to be a CAGer and to know most of you. This debate has been awesome and one of the best threads I have seen at CAG where everyone has some good opinions that are actually relevent. We may not all be right but at least we are all cool about it.

[meteors]

I bought Virtua Racing for Genesis with the "special" VFX chip for $50 at my mall Babages (anybody remember THAT place? They usually had very high prices) the very first day it was released. Maybe they mistakenly priced it but that was that.

This is off topic at this point but I do believe, in my experience, Nintendo has historically always had higher software prices than their competitors on average, sometimes way too much so. Even now their $19.99 "Player's Choice" are often $29.99, something no other company does.

[meteors]

This is the smartest thing said so far in this thread!

http://www.videogamedeals.com/product_info.php/products_id/1439

Use freetoship to get free shipping on a rather heavy item.

In all seriousness though...I am really proud to be a CAGer and to know most of you. This debate has been awesome and one of the best threads I have seen at CAG where everyone has some good opinions that are actually relevent. We may not all be right but at least we are all cool about it.

I bought Super Puzzle Fighter from Videogamedeals.com and couldn't have been happier with the experience. If you can manage to find old goodies like that you'll have my business for SURE!

[PsyClerk]

This is off topic at this point but I do believe, in my experience, Nintendo has historically always had higher software prices than their competitors on average, sometimes way too much so. Even now their $19.99 "Player's Choice" are often $29.99, something no other company does.

This is because no one else regulates software as heavily as Nintendo. It has always been that way. It doesn't help matters that Nintendo always goes with some whacko format for their games (cartridges instead of CDs, the mini-discs instead of DVDs).

As was said earlier in the thread, go check out Game Over. My nearest EB had an assload of this book not long ago, selling for $2. Great read and it will give you massive insight into how Nintendo became successful. Then contrast that story with the Big N's current direction.

[rimsforsale]

so no one agrees with me? arg

[YoshiFan1]

The problem I have with the games industry now is the lack of unique and innovative games. I am tired of what seems to be the same game released over and over again. I really have seem to lost interest in games. Even after E3 this year there is only 1 game I am interested in and that's Donkey Konga.

I got a Japanese PS2 last Decemember and I regained an interest in games. I have been importing so many different types of games that will never be released in the US and these different types of games is making gaming enjoyable for me again.

Although like everyone else on this site, I don't like to pay much for a game, I will if the game deserves it. I spent $115 to play Pop N Music ($60 controller and $55 game) but it was worth it to me just because the game is so much fun. On EBay, I see people spending $100+ for Beatmania IIDX 4th Style and up to $150 for a Beatmania IIDX controller (some people are spending $400+ on the arcade style one). I think that says that if a game is good enough and is enjoyable, people will be willing to pay full price for it.

Unfortunately, I guess those type of games would never sell in the US because they are "different"

Then again, maybe that's what the game industry needs to get people more interested in games.

[alongx]

I bought Virtua Racing for Genesis with the "special" VFX chip for $50 at my mall Babages (anybody remember THAT place? They usually had very high prices) the very first day it was released. Maybe they mistakenly priced it but that was that.

I also remember Virtua Racing at $100 and Phantasy Star 2 at $80. I have no idea where you could have found this mystical Babbages, because I remember seeing that game for $100 all over the place, namely in the local Software Etc., Electronics Boutique, and Toys R Us.
I'd hope everyone remembers Babbages, since it's the same thing as what was once Software Etc. and is now Gamestop. And their pricing hasn't changed much.

[alongx]

I think that says that if a game is good enough and is enjoyable, people will be willing to pay full price for it.

I disagree. I love DDR, but I didn't buy it until I was able to get the game + two pads for $55. I loved Samba de Amigo, but wouldn't put out $100 per controller for the maracas. And I am excited for Donkey Konga/DK Jungle Beat, but I won't buy it unless the bongo comes packed with either of the games for $50-60. Some people buy this stuff for a lot of money, but I think they are few or far between.

[MadChedar0]

http://www.gamespot.com/news/2004/05/28/news_6099584.html

Maybe there's no crash coming after all.

[JSweeney]

Read between the lines:

Are there any losers in Deloitte's view of the next six years? As usual, it's the little guy who gets leaned on. "The steep technical requirements will drive smaller publishers out of the high-end market," the report says. "Overall, we expect development budgets for leading titles on next generation consoles and PCs to be an order of magnitude higher than for current platforms--well into the tens of millions."

That in itself would be a crash. Not to mention that losing the risktaking and innovation that usually comes from the smaller house, you'd get lots and lots of similar games... leading to market stagnation, which could lead to yet another crash.

[bmulligan]

"Overall, we expect development budgets for leading titles on next generation consoles and PCs to be an order of magnitude higher than for current platforms--well into the tens of millions."


This guy's just plain wrong. There's no way the market could sustain an 'order of magnitude' increase in production costs. And why would this happen? will next gen hardware contain an 'order of magnitude' tech leap? No, it won't.

Todays video games are pretty much he same as they have always been since the beginning. The only real difference is the window dressing, i.e, graphical improvements and 3-d engines. Basic gameplay elements are the same as atari adventure, space invaders, and Donkey Kong. There have been no real 'leaps' of orders for 30 years. Perhaps I'm just on his case because he's using hyperbole to ilicit excitement for the industry, but I don't think he knows the difference between an arithmatic and a geometric progression.

[Puzznic]

They really just need to setup a return system for the games that don't sell. It especially makes sense when you look at the price of the physical media. I mean look at how many discs America Online sends out just hoping that just a small fraction will actually get used. They could just distribute the games, let the market dictate how many are sold, and the excess could be sent back to be redistributed or destroyed. Im sure the big companies are completely against this but eventually they might not have a choice.

[PaulEMoz]

I wrote something about it here, a while ago. (http://www.wayoftherodent.com/guests/bob_paulemoz4.htm)

I just think new games are too expensive in this day and age. The vast majority of people either don't want or can't afford to spend $50 every couple of weeks on a new game. I don't know how much it costs to manufacture a game, but surely the companies realise that lower prices = more sales. They'd still probably make the same money at lower prices, even if they had to sell more copies to do it. There are too many choices, and not enough of them are of sufficient quality to justify $50 anyway. Maybe a crash is necessary, so that the industry can "reboot", take stock of itself and work things out for the benefit of everyone, not just themselves.

[magilacudy]

Maybe there will be a crash, maybe there won't. I've just never seen such a ridiculous sale like BB just had recently. Obviously there was something they saw in the market that motivated them to take such a loss.

[bignick]

OK, this is a rough example.

Say a company makes $15 profit on a game buy selling it at $50.

Now, they would make $5 profit by selling it at $40.

They would have to sell 3 times as many games at $40 to make the same amout they would by selling it at $50.

[punqsux]

OK, this is a rough example.

Say a company makes $15 profit on a game buy selling it at $50.

Now, they would make $5 profit by selling it at $40.

They would have to sell 3 times as many games at $40 to make the same amout they would by selling it at $50.

but i think the problem is there are so many games comming out, that many games are not selling at 50, or even at 40!

[manofpeace20]

Everything has to do with the oversaturation of games hitting the market. I noticed in particular with the XBOX and the PS2 (mostly PS2), a flurry of "must have" games hit the market, but I'd say around 70 to 80 percent of those games are duds. There are numerous titles that come to mind that have been hyped fairly well that fall into this category, take your pick. These games turn into duds because:

1) Its a sequel being rushed out (Hitman Contracts, Devil May Cry 2)

2) Not enough replay value, and the buyer feels cheated (Most games)

3) Hyped to be the next "major innovation" (True Crime)

4) Emphasis on graphics

I noticed that during the so called console wars, Nintendo gets bashed for not producing enough games to satisfy their fans. In Nintendo's defense, I rarely second guessed myself after putting down serious cash on a Nintendo game. They make up for their lack of constant big game titles with some high quality stuff. When I got into the PS2 and XBOX, I quickly got burned on some "must have" titles and realized I needed to show more patience when buying.

On top of all this, the internet has been great to gamers smart enough to turn to it. Retail stores would love to sucker in people and fuck them with full prices, but buyers are getting smarter.

I'd like to see game prices drop to the 30 dollar range, but I'd be happy with 40 dollar games too. If the PC can produce cheap games, why can't the consoles?

[BigHow]

Not to totally derail this thread, but maybe we could get CheapyD in on this "keep Defender in business" action?

I've seen CAG really come together as a community in a lot of things, from the regulars to the lurking n00bs like myself (even though I've been a registered user for a long time). Maybe for a week, we could set aside being "cheap asses" and focus on being a good neighbor to Defender, who's been a valuable member of this community (whether or not you've had beef with him).

This is what I propose: (1) Defender does a massive update of the site. I know this has been a common complaint from a lot of people who have wanted to order. I actually just go to his B&M or call in orders because of this. (2) For one week, the top story on CAG is an urging to go to Defenders website and purchase a game. Perhaps Cheapy can dig up some coupon for EBGames or Overstock to "reward" those who lend a hand.

Defender's B&M is one of the greatest places in the Village. I'd hate to see it die. Let's help it live!

I'm sorry I'm out of NYC for the summer, Defender, or else I'd be stopping by every week. I did, however, just buy a copy of Project Justice for the DC over the phone this morning. As the paychecks roll in, I'll be making more calls. Thankfully, the law firm life gives me a bit more spending cash. If MM1.0 is still open in the fall, you bet your ass I'm going to blow some loot there.

-- Howard

[jshorr]

I have something sort of interesting to report that is related to this thread...While at EB this afternoon, there was a customer hanging around the counter talking to the employees. He definately knew them and came around the store a lot, was chatting them up about different games and such. Every so often he would ask what was the price of this or that game. He asked how much Onimusha (spelling?) 3 was preowned and was told 44.99. He bristled and said thanks, but I'll wait. One of the employees, the manager, who can be kind of a hardass at times but is a decent guy says "Of course you'll wait.... Everyone waits.... The game will be 39.99 new here or somewhere else probably by the end of the month." He wasn't angry or nasty but you could tell he wasn't thrilled about all the quick markdowns going on. I'm sure they're affecting his store's business as well as the Ma and Pa shops...

[retroguru]

Hey BigHow...sounds like a pretty cool idea. Anyone else interested?

[epobirs]

For my own purposes I can quite quickly recall a better sale than this. A few years ago Sears was blowing out games like it was the end of everything. PSX and N64 games for $10, Dreamcast games for $15. Many of these games were major titles still selling for full price at the big chains. For instance, FFVIII.


This was after PS2 came out though...It's expected of retailers to clear the shelves for a next gen system. I see no reason for BB to go to $4.99 on these games other than they dont think they will sell fast enough otherwise and they need the cash. There isnt many titles coming this summer so why not just slow sell and then have a sale in couple months? This is what worries me...they might start doing more of these $4.99 sales during the summer which will deflate inventory value even more and raise gamer expectations of getting games cheap. Like many hear have said. They will not pay $50 for a game anymore and I have been seeing this in my store most of the year. Customers used to buy 2-3 games a month at $50 but no more....they expect them at $20 or less now.

No, this was well before the PS2 release with Dreamcast only halfway through its short life. I'm not kidding when I say this was a major eBay coup for me. Almost all of the games involved were still at list price in major outlets or discounted no more than 20%. All of the systems involved were still current with no successor's release date announced.

It's pretty clear to me that BB is motivated here by ASP. (Average Selling Price) Big stores that deal with consumers by the herd are very concerned about this issue. They like everything to be close to the same price so that consumers aren't encouraged to hold out for the big markdowns. This is one of the reason 'Greatest Hits' type products have separate packaging. The lower price tier is more acceptable if it is easily recognized as a separate product. You may have notice that some store will have blowouts of games that are about to be reissued with 'Greatest Hits' packaging just to get rid of those old packages. The 'GH' version will have a higher price and not create a disruption of the pricing structure with its distinctive appearance.

So why the $4.99 blowout? Because they can. It gets all the undesirable product out of the store in a very brief period. Regular consumers outnumber us CAG types by a huge factor. A brief swarm of CAG locusts is a minor annoyance to be rid of that product. Chains like BB have standing armies whose sole purpose is to write down as much as possible from the chain's taxes. With that army's efforts involved it is likely that someone added up the numbers and some sales over time stats and showed it was better to take a big hit fast than to have all that low priced stock malingering in their bins.

This is the advantage of being a big company that tracks revenues with 9 and 10 digit numbers. Life isn't fair.

[epobirs]

OK, this is a rough example.

Say a company makes $15 profit on a game buy selling it at $50.

Now, they would make $5 profit by selling it at $40.

They would have to sell 3 times as many games at $40 to make the same amout they would by selling it at $50.

There is precedent for massively growing a market through lower prices.

A long, long time ago, possibly before many reading this were born or old enough to notice, sales of movies on videocassettes was very different. Prices for newly released movies were typically $70-$80. A small number of consumers bought favorite movies but the price structure assured that nearly all the home video business would revolve around rental outlets. This suited Hollywood just fine since media rentals is what they understood when it came to revenue.

Then Paramount got ready to release 'Raiders of the Lost Ark' on tape. One smart executive noticed that a big reason for this film's huge box office was the number of people paying to see it multiple times. It wasn't the first movie that could make that claim but it was the first case where this particular guy could raise a point. He asked whether this wouldn't be a huge seller direct to consumers if it had a mass market price. He convinced the head of the home video division that they should go for a big direct sales push at $24.95.

Most of the rest of the industry thought this was insane. You'd have to sell at least four times as man units to make up for the reduce margins and added costs for marketing and volume distribution.

They did it and 'Raiders' was in less than two months the #1 bestselling VHS movie. They beat the break even point by a factor of four and soon had the single most profitable home video release the industry had yet seen. Selling movies direct to consumers has increasingly become the primary growth center of the film industry ever since.

There is no reason the game industry cannot do this, too.

[RedvsBlue]

I've been thinking this would happen too. They're simply coming out with too many games to keep up with. Its really getting ridiDculous, I like variety as much as the next guy but Defender's right, things are only going to start falling apart from here.

[roland13x]

Epobirs,

I'm not sure I get the connection between the "market price" of your post with the game industry. One difference is that movie sales prices (now and then) rarely fluctuate, meaning that although you can often find a first-week price break, most movies won't deviate $5 from their price. Games are now deviating 50% or more in a matter of months, if not weeks. That's the difference.

If you are suggesting that Publishers/Retailers lower the price of games to reach the "mass market", you are probably missing the point, considering that the only part of the industry that is hurting is retail, and that the publishers who put out quality titles are doing fine.

Don't ask me for a solution, I'm just saying I don't see the comparison with your post, though it was an interesting read.

[epobirs]

Perhaps if you noted the earlier post quoted at the beginning of my post and saw what was being discussed there...

I shouldn't think it's that difficult a concept. The home video industry chose to bring down the SRP (Suggested Retail Price) of their products in belief that the increased sales would result in greater net revenue despite the lower margin per unit.

This isn't about pulling Defender's business back from the brink, it's about growing the industry as a whole. (Defender's problems have more to do with how the big chains chose to eliminate unwanted inventory than the health of the industry.) When Paramount decided to introduce sellthrough pricing it wasn't because home video was a struggling business. Things were going very well in that business but it was but a fraction of the size it achieved just a few years after mass market pricing became the rule.

As for fluctuation in movie pricing, I have to disagree. I just came from my local Best Buy. In addition to all the $18-$22 DVDs of recent releases there were racks of DVDs down to as little as $5.99 for movies that theatrical success just two or three years ago. When you consider that the longevity of film properties can be measured in decades that is a very quick drop to about 20% of the original SRP (24.95) typical for new DVD releases. And surely you've seen in the course of shopping that the retail price of a typical DVD movie can easily vary by at least $5 within the space of a single shopping center. The Borders book chain, for instance, often has absurdly high prices for widely available titles compared to a place like Target that might be only a short walk away. Somehow Borders does enough business at these price to merit continuing.

The fact is that the home video market is well adapted to maximizing the reach of their product. For the bulk of their releases volume is the main way to maximize revenue. They'll have some deluxe premium items here and there but 90% of their stuff will live on for years at less than 50% of their original SRP but remain viable products. The prices for typical releases start low and go down from there. The number of consumers who can be easily tempted to blow $20 on a whim is quite a bit greater than those will casually spend $50. When the average price is closer to the majority's 'bought on a whim' level the sellthrough numbers can be expected to grow and the installed base of the platform as well.

Most casual gamers (or the people who fund their purchases) aren't CAG adepts who are patient and willing to wait for a bargain to arise. Their perception of game prices is at the $40-$50 level that we avoid. This prevents a lot of growth to the installed base of the platform since most folks are bright enough to realize that the game will be what keeps draining their wallet long after the hardware is purchased. This retards growth of the installed base which in turn causes a continued belief by publishers that they can only hope to turn a profit on that limited base by keeping price high for new releases. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy that restricts the growth of the industry.

How many who are accustomed to buying used games for $20 would buy new instead if game prices were in line with DVD video prices?

30 million PS2 units in North America may seem like a lot by why can't it grow to double that size if price resistance is reduced? Once you got the box in the consumer house your chance of selling them software for that box is greatly improved.

Companies still reliant on mask ROMs would not be thrilled to see this change since their media cost for their portable systems would greatly higher than optical discs. Nintendo, to name names, would be in a difficult position since there is a perception that portable games should be less expensive than console games.

[Puzznic]

You make some good points but i dont think its really possible to release a big budget game at the price of a a new DVD movie. DVDs would be more expensive if they had to pay a licensing cost for each disc like console developers do. I think $30 to $35 would be a good price.

[CTLesq]

You make some good points but i dont think its really possible to release a big budget game at the price of a a new DVD movie. DVDs would be more expensive if they had to pay a licensing cost for each disc like console developers do. I think $30 to $35 would be a good price.

I think if you owned stock in a development company you would disagree.

[soulwish2003]

No crash in the U.S. Sales figures are up from last year at this time.

[THE DARK KNIGHT]

I was told yesterday by the store manager that best buy is not carrying nintendo products anymore. He was calling to get a price match. This could help explain the $4.99 prices somewhat. If they do stop carrying nintendo they are not as smart as I thought. I guess if you aren't moving the stock than this is what you have to do.

[CTLesq]

I was told yesterday by the store manager that best buy is not carrying nintendo products anymore. He was calling to get a price match. This could help explain the $4.99 prices somewhat. If they do stop carrying nintendo they are not as smart as I thought. I guess if you aren't moving the stock than this is what you have to do.

What they sold for $5 was crap and wasn't going anywhere. As for the Nintendo issue that is regrettable but a product of Nintendo's failure to aggressively have 3rd party developers rather than recycling their old, tired franchises for their 4th system.

[ringlord]

OK, this is a rough example.

Say a company makes $15 profit on a game buy selling it at $50.

Now, they would make $5 profit by selling it at $40.

They would have to sell 3 times as many games at $40 to make the same amout they would by selling it at $50.

It's simpler than you make out. Who is this company? The developer? The publisher? The retailer? All of them get a cut. Say for simplicities sake that they each get a $16.50 cut of a $50 game. If the price is reduced to $40, then they all get $13.30. The reduction is 20%, as you'd expect, so they need only sell 1.25x the number of games, not 3x like you say.

That's why you see some games come out at $40 -- they're hoping to lure more people in at a price lower than most other games.

So if the price were lowered to $25, they would need to sell 2x as many to make the same profit This would work on me. I'd buy $25 games like there was no tomorrow as soon as they were released. As it is, I usually wait until they come down to $29, but I usually change my mind or forget about them or get distracted by a newer game before they reach that price and don't pick them up. So who's losing out here?

Okay, so maybe $25 is a little low. $29 or $34 might have nearly the same effect on me. It just going to take some publisher to have the guts to try it out before we know if it'll work or not. Set a lower price, and make it clear that the price will not drop for a year or more, and then see how many buyers come in.

[chickenhawk]

Not to totally derail this thread, but maybe we could get CheapyD in on this "keep Defender in business" action?

I've seen CAG really come together as a community in a lot of things, from the regulars to the lurking n00bs like myself (even though I've been a registered user for a long time). Maybe for a week, we could set aside being "cheap asses" and focus on being a good neighbor to Defender, who's been a valuable member of this community (whether or not you've had beef with him).

This is what I propose: (1) Defender does a massive update of the site. I know this has been a common complaint from a lot of people who have wanted to order. I actually just go to his B&M or call in orders because of this. (2) For one week, the top story on CAG is an urging to go to Defenders website and purchase a game. Perhaps Cheapy can dig up some coupon for EBGames or Overstock to "reward" those who lend a hand.

Defender's B&M is one of the greatest places in the Village. I'd hate to see it die. Let's help it live!

I'm sorry I'm out of NYC for the summer, Defender, or else I'd be stopping by every week. I did, however, just buy a copy of Project Justice for the DC over the phone this morning. As the paychecks roll in, I'll be making more calls. Thankfully, the law firm life gives me a bit more spending cash. If MM1.0 is still open in the fall, you bet your ass I'm going to blow some loot there.

-- Howard

This is a fine idea and all, and I would happy to participate, but I don't think this will "save" defender in the long run. It will improve his situation for now, but in a few weeks he'll be back in the same boat. :cry:

[Wshakspear]

I'd like to see game prices drop to the 30 dollar range, but I'd be happy with 40 dollar games too. If the PC can produce cheap games, why can't the consoles?

However you fucking spell it, Licensing. (close enough...)

Ubi does not have to pay $'s per game on pc, but they have to pay MS,Sony, and Nintendo for each game they put out. That makes a big difference. The thing is though, by being 2nd party, or by doing exclusive deals, that # goes down.

[Cracka]

i was just watching the news and they say the gaming industry is gonna crash tomorrow morning at 8:37.

[BigHow]

Not to totally derail this thread, but maybe we could get CheapyD in on this "keep Defender in business" action?

(edited for length)

-- Howard

This is a fine idea and all, and I would happy to participate, but I don't think this will "save" defender in the long run. It will improve his situation for now, but in a few weeks he'll be back in the same boat. :cry:

I totally agree that it's not a long term solution. But it might to keep Defender afloat long enough to reorganize his business. I think the most important element is keeping his lease, which a sudden cash infusion might support.

Or, at the very least, it'd be some capital to put towards his new project.

-- Howard

[bmulligan]

I doubt it would be 'capital'. More than likely it would be a payment or 2 toward the rent or mortgage on the property or a payoff of the credit line that was used to buy the games in the first place. If you're a typical business owner, that is.

I think I understand Defenders argument now. The sheer multitude of games on the market and entering the market have inflated the supply to the point where prices must drop to move the inventory. This deflated overall price creates an impression in the market of a devalued commodity. The market then expects lower priced items in the same category. When they arent priced accordingly, demand drops even more, inventories inflate, prices drop again, and the cycle perpetuates itself.

You could be right Defender, a serious drop could be just around the corner. Unfortunately it will only serve to weed out the low men on the pole, i.e. small vendors and developers. It'll be a depression, but not an outright crash fro everyone.

If 30-50 titles (a guess) are brought to market per month and there is only so much room to display them all, much less carry an inventory, it is near impossible to pick the right ones that will move fast enough to earn a decent profit. It's like a crap shoot every time you place an order. You think you pick a good game like Rebel Strike, order 100 copies, and the next month the price drops $20 everywhere else because it's not moving fast enough and you've only sold 25 copies. Your only choice is to sell the rest below cost and cut your losses.

I don't envy you.

[epobirs]

Licensing fees AKA royalties are not set in stone. They are subject to wide variance throughout the industry. Platform companies frequently use the offer of reduced per unit fees to entice third party publishers to their platform. Likewise the lower price points carry lower fees for things like Greatest Hits and for game introduced at much lower price points like Blowout or Chulip.

So long as the increase in volume holds promise of greater net revenue a reduced royalty scale is a trivial matter. Yes, it adds cost over the PC platform but that is seen as a minor toll when all of the conveniences of a strong console platform are considered. If it were otherwise Nintendo would never have been able to resurrect the console business in the 80's since control of third party publishing and the revenues derived from same is the most critical part of their business model.

[b3b0p]

Anyone remember the good old days of Nintendo and Super Nintendo? I remember Paying $50, $60, $70, and even $80 for a brand new game. I miss those days and don't regret any of it. I would do it again too.

You know why? Because the games were actually fun to play! There is just way too much garbage coming out now. Those games Best Buy was selling for $5 was still not cheap enough. They would need to pay me to take inventory of most of that crap.

If they continue producing the junk they do I hope the video game industry does crash. I have my NES, SNES, Gambeoy, N64, Gamecube and Playstation. I need nothing else.

If Defender is right about games becoming downloaded/streamed instead then I'll just never buy another one again. My kids when asked about anything after such times will respond, "You mean they made a Playstation XX and you can download the game instantly!? That sucks for you!"

Chris

Still waiting for Earthbound 64

[Reality's Fringe]

Brother, I've never felt really close to a game system before, but when I read your post, it had me clutching my SNES in glee. If the crash comes, I believe I can weather the storm with my old standbys as well.

From a Gmestop employee's poit of view, I can safely say that today's gamer is ignorant. I've rung up countless copies of lameass hackneyed bulshit games for all the current consoles, and have even endured the taunts of "Madden/NCAA" go'ers towards others who buy decent and excellent games. After 10 months I've finally decided to start telling people not to buy this lame ass bullshit. The other day this guy came in and picked up NCAA 2004 and was like "Man, I can't wait until 2005 when they update the stats!!"
MY GOD PEOPLE DON'T YOU SEE, THEY'RE GOING TO UPDATE THE STATS!!! It's been said before, but bears repeating: The industry is not to be blamed for the "New Crash", they're only supplying what all these other people are demanding and eventually, they're going to get sick of it. Will it happen this year? No, I don't see it, but if the next wave of systems don't offer some wonderful, refreshing innovation, then I see the whole thing falling down rather quickly. God Speed videogames, I'm going to go back to playing what you were in your youth.

RF~ Also waiting for a new Earthbound

[JSweeney]

Well, Madden 2005 Limited Edition will likely be the first brand new madden game I've bought since back in the day of the SNES. Free online, and copies of previous versions of Madden make this look like a worthwhile purchase. They finally seem to be adding some things that just aren't stat updates. If they did this kind of stuff more often, I would be more apt to buy sports games more often.

[Thunderscope]

I hope you dont go out of business man, but it seems like the industry is in a major stump. It seems that a real hyped game would come out and quicky drop like 70% off the original price. Also with all the systems on the market and the portables it is really overkill

[Wshakspear]

No, I don't see it, but if the next wave of systems don't offer some wonderful, refreshing innovation, then I see the whole thing falling down rather quickly.

Thats exactly why im actually looking forward to Nintendo's "Revolution" and the DS. FUN.

[SpookyD]

Nintendo's "Revolution" Should just be an Snes. It might not be all that innovative but I just went through Super Mario World withouth playing anything else and finished it. I haven't gone through a game and been devoted like that in such a long time... There is somthing special about the Snes.

[Sartori]

Nintendo's "Revolution" Should just be an Snes. It might not be all that innovative but I just went through Super Mario World withouth playing anything else and finished it. I haven't gone through a game and been devoted like that in such a long time... There is somthing special about the Snes.

What was your age at that time?

[defender]

INTERPLAY IS GONE

http://ps2.ign.com/articles/521/521560p1.html?fromint=1

Who is next? Acclaim maybe?

3DO died but who cared..

[SneakyPenguin]

INTERPLAY IS GONE

http://ps2.ign.com/articles/521/521560p1.html?fromint=1

Who is next? Acclaim maybe?

3DO died but who cared..

Just got linked back here, and felt the need to bump to prove you're right. Acclaim is gone, so now who's next?

[Watchman]

Acclaim is gone. Good riddance, I say. I was shocked they held on as long as they have. Throughout the 90's they were the benchmark for subpar, high profile games.

As to the crash of '04, it would appear that the armageddon has passed us by; furthermore, with PSP being released today, I would venture to say that gaming's future is looking a lot more rosy.

[Snake2715]

Acclaim is gone. Good riddance, I say. I was shocked they held on as long as they have. Throughout the 90's they were the benchmark for subpar, high profile games.

As to the crash of '04, it would appear that the armageddon has passed us by; furthermore, with PSP being released today, I would venture to say that gaming's future is looking a lot more rosy.

Consider 2D to be going down now though with everyones expectations on Portable 3D. That could have an effect on the future.

[Kayden]

Doesn't Defender still have his store too?

[Scorch]

I believe that part of the crash is due to the flood on the market. I mean, seriously, look at the list of heavy hitters the past few months.. Halo 2, San Andreas, Resident Evil 4, MGS3, Metroid Prime 2, Half-Life 2, Doom 3, Burnout 3, Ghost Recon 2 (I thought it did poorly in sales but apparently it didn't), THUG 2, Mortal Kombat: Deception, GT4, Tekken 5, DOA Ultimate, Fable, God of War, Brothers in Arms, Minish Cap, Fight Night Round 2, DMC3, Mercenaries, MechAssault 2, POP:WW, KOTOR 2, X-Men Legends, THUG2, Sims 2, NFSU 2, the launch of the PSTwo, the launch of the DS, the launch of the PSP.

Now Nintendo's planning to release a redesigned something or other to combat the PSP this fall!? If the market's crashing, it's their own fault.

//edit WTF? This post is from June 2004! Defender doesn't even have his store anymore! Someone lock this. Why the fuck did you bump this, Watchman!?

[Rig]

Acclaim is gone. Good riddance, I say. I was shocked they held on as long as they have. Throughout the 90's they were the benchmark for subpar, high profile games.

As to the crash of '04, it would appear that the armageddon has passed us by; furthermore, with PSP being released today, I would venture to say that gaming's future is looking a lot more rosy.

Consider 2D to be going down now though with everyones expectations on Portable 3D. That could have an effect on the future.

I agree. What little 2D gaming we had may now be squelched. Portables had the most 2D, and while I am sure there will still be some, the PSP will most certainly take a toll on 2D gaming. DS will be the same way, but I think they will have a bigger abundance of 2D gaming...

[Kayden]

I believe that part of the crash is due to the flood on the market. I mean, seriously, look at the list of heavy hitters the past few months.. Halo 2, San Andreas, Resident Evil 4, MGS3, Metroid Prime 2, Half-Life 2, Doom 3, Burnout 3, Ghost Recon 2 (I thought it did poorly in sales but apparently it didn't), THUG 2, Mortal Kombat: Deception, GT4, Tekken 5, DOA Ultimate, Fable, God of War, Brothers in Arms, Minish Cap, Fight Night Round 2, DMC3, Mercenaries, MechAssault 2, POP:WW, KOTOR 2, X-Men Legends, THUG2, Sims 2, NFSU 2, the launch of the PSTwo, the launch of the DS, the launch of the PSP.

Now Nintendo's planning to release a redesigned something or other to combat the PSP this fall!? If the market's crashing, it's their own fault.

//edit WTF? This post is from June 2004! Defender doesn't even have his store anymore! Someone lock this. Why the shaq-fu did you bump this, Watchman!?

On top of things as usual, eh? :lol:

[Steggy]

rerelease the snes or a console that plays a new cartridge based game and itd sell out fast.

[Grave_Addiction]

Doesn't Defender still have his store too?

He sold it.

[ElwoodCuse]

ZOMBIE THREAD ALERT

[Parathod]

This should be locked, but it's still relevant today.

[lordxixor101]

Hmmm, even though this is ancient (why dig it up after all this time), it is interesting. Though, I don't think this is a traditional crash like 84. The industry is in a state of flux. There are just too many games being made right now. Good games should never be overlooked, but there definitely are now. I think we'll look at this time as a time of consolodation for the industry. The best games can still sell now, but it's the average to slightly above average games that can get ignored completely.

[Mishimaryu]

It would be funny if the nintendo DS and PSP drops down 100 in less than a year.