Originally Posted by dmaul1114 Exciting games shitty results today...Will be Alabama vs Oregon or KSU in title game most likely.

I'm sure some people liked the results. I think that if all three win out, Oregon gets the nod over K.State. Even though TCU and Texas won today, Stanford and Oregon St. will carry more weight plus there's the additional game (PAC 12 championship).

Originally Posted by blindinglights It amazes me that Les Miles can be so successful yet he never seems to have his teams well versed in the simple skill that is clock management.

Funny you say that because my wife went to bed in the first half saying "We'll see, Les Miles and LSU will jack it up because they can't watch the clock." She'll love it tomorrow when I tell her she was right. They did show Alabama to be beatable, although I'm not sure any other team will play them that tough. It's looking like the Tide will end up facing Georgia here in Atlanta for the SEC championship.

Originally Posted by chuckie88 I'm sure some people liked the results. I think that if all three win out, Oregon gets the nod over K.State. Even though TCU and Texas won today, Stanford and Oregon St. will carry more weight plus there's the additional game (PAC 12 championship).

Stanford plays Oregon St next week. Depending on outcome, Stanford is a 3 loss team or Oregon St is a 2 loss team. These potential wins are not as large as expected. USC now has 3 losses and potentially could lose to Notre Dame, making the Pac-12 title game not a huge potential win either.

Speaking of Notre Dame... If they finish undefeated, they are in the Natty. They would be in that game over the other two for storylines alone.

Originally Posted by lordopus99 Stanford plays Oregon St next week. Depending on outcome, Stanford is a 3 loss team or Oregon St is a 2 loss team. These potential wins are not as large as expected. USC now has 3 losses and potentially could lose to Notre Dame, making the Pac-12 title game not a huge potential win either. Speaking of Notre Dame... If they finish undefeated, they are in the Natty. They would be in that game over the other two for storylines alone.

Although I'd rate their last three regular opponents just about evenly, I still think an unbeaten Oregon would get the nod over an unbeaten K.State due to the extra game. Even if they beat a four loss USC in a conference title game it still adds one more win to the total. In years past the top teams in the Big 10 would finish their season and sit on their thumbs watching while teams from the other three power conferences ranked below them won conference championships and moved over them in the final rankings because of that additional game. Of course, it can also be a double edged sword as a conference title game also gives an undefeated team one more chance to lose their first game.

As for an undefeated Notre Dame getting in the BCS championship over an undefeated Oregon or Kansas State, I don't think that will happen. I realize they bring a tons of fan support, ad dollars, and tantalizing storylines but I just don't see it happening. Two thirds of the BCS rests with human voters and they already rank the Irish below the Ducks and the Wildcats. I can't see that changing if all three keep winning, especially with their remaining schedules. Notre Dame's last three opponents are not as competitive and they'd have to be better to incite a jump. The computer third of the BCS is what has been keeping them up and Oregon down, humans have consistently voted for Oregon right behind Alabama.


Of course, all this could be moot if they all drop a game between now and then. Gotta' love the drama of college football!

Originally Posted by chuckie88 I think that if all three win out, Oregon gets the nod over K.State. Even though TCU and Texas won today, Stanford and Oregon St. will carry more weight plus there's the additional game (PAC 12 championship).

Agreed. The human polls (Harris and Coach's) are still the biggest chunk of the BCS formula and Oregon is already number 2 in those. Pollsters hardly ever jump one unbeaten team over another late in the season. So if they don't lose they're staying number 2 there. And there computer numbers will only get stronger with playing USC (and maybe again), Oregon State etc. Not a tough schedule by any means, but tougher than what they've played so far so their SoS numbers will get a boost. And that, along with being #2 in the human polls, will most likely be enough for them to inch ahead of K State.

But it will be close as K State still has TCU, Baylor and Texas left, so no awful opponents to drop their SoS much either. It's the human polls that will make the difference though as they just won't jump Oregon in those if they both win out.

I'd rather see K State in there, but don't care that much. Oregon probably has the best chance of beating Alabama. The way LSU ran the ball on them, have to think Oregon's running attack would be able to put up yards and points.

No chance in hell ND jumps in if two or three of Alabama, K State and Oregon are unbeaten. Their weaker SoS, several close/lucky wins will keep them from jumping anyone in the human polls and the SoS numbers will hurt them in the computers--especially with games against BC and Wake Forest left which will drop them down a good bit while Oregon and K State are playing solid teams the rest of the way.

Jesus, gotta imagine Barner put himself at the top of the Heisman discussion after that. That shit is Reggie Bush numbers. Also agree the big O will probably get 2nd, though I'd give anything to see ND squirm in there somehow. Man, imagine if the playoff system got implemented THIS year, 4 really stacked unbeatens that'd be AWESOME.

Yeah, I kind of hope all 4 finish unbeaten.

While it's unlikely, maybe that would cause such an uproar that they find a way to do a 4 team playoff next year within the BCS, rather than waiting until 2014 as planned.

I think USC will beat ND though--just too much offense for NDs crummy offense to be able to outscore them.

The other 3 I think are pretty likely to win out. After last night, Bama might be the most likely loss if UGA can run the ball on them in the SEC title game (assuming that matchup holds).

AP Poll is out:

1 Alabama (60)
2 Oregon
3 Kansas State
4 Notre Dame
5 Ohio State
5 Georgia
7 Florida
8 Florida State
9 LSU
10 Clemson
11 Louisville
12 South Carolina
13 Oregon State
14 Oklahoma
15 Texas A&M
16 Stanford
17 UCLA
18 Nebraska
19 Texas
19 Louisiana Tech
21 USC
22 Mississippi State
23 Toledo
24 Rutgers
25 Texas Tech

I have a bit of a homer bias, but I'm surprised that ND has such a large gap over OSU for 4th and that OSU is tied for 5th. I suspect the postseason ineligibility has a lot to do with that. Toledo is the second ranked MAC team this year and is ranked for the first time since 2001. Two other MAC teams are ranked 26 and 27, and the MAC has the second most bowl eligible teams, behind only the SEC. Not bad for a mid-major.

Originally Posted by Genocidal AP Poll is out... I have a bit of a homer bias, but I'm surprised that ND has such a large gap over OSU for 4th and that OSU is tied for 5th. I suspect the postseason ineligibility has a lot to do with that. Toledo is the second ranked MAC team this year and is ranked for the first time since 2001. Two other MAC teams are ranked 26 and 27, and the MAC has the second most bowl eligible teams, behind only the SEC. Not bad for a mid-major.

While the postseason ineligibility certainly doesn't help the Buckeyes, they were also hurt by their out of conference schedule. UCF is decent but California and UAB are terrible, with only a combined total of five wins. Three of their wins were by very narrow margins also but I think that their eligibilty issues and their scheduled opponents are the real culprit.

The MAC is having a very good year. Kent St., Ohio, N.Illinois, and Toledo are all good with victories over Rutgers, Cincinnati, and Penn St. and only one loss each. One of those losses was in conference with the others coming to teams from the Big 10, PAC 12, and SEC. Toledo might even be in the top 15 without that overtime loss at Arizona in the first game of the season. The MAC championship game has potential to be a good one for sure.

Originally Posted by dmaul1114 I think USC will beat ND though--just too much offense for NDs crummy offense to be able to outscore them.

Too much offense?.... Oklahoma has a better offense than USC and you saw what they did against that solid Notre Dame defense.

NDs crummy offense?.... USC defense in their last two games allowed on average 650 yards and 40 points. Pittsburgh has a better defense than USC and the Irish posted 29 points against them.

Being that the Irish only allow 11.7 pts/game and the Irish posted 29 against a better defense than USC has, signs would point the Irish as favorites.

The Irish hushed doubters in Norman yet the doubters came back out since ND didn't posterize Pittsburgh. ND has two wins against current BCS Top 15 teams. Something Kansas St and Oregon don't have.

Notre Dame should've lost to Pitt and had another overtime vs. Stanford. How do you not ding a team that only beat a 4-4 team due to an easy missed FG?

Originally Posted by Genocidal Notre Dame should've lost to Pitt and had another overtime vs. Stanford. How do you not ding a team that only beat a 4-4 team due to an easy missed FG?

Yet won 30-13 in Norman (one of the hardest places to win at) against their BCS Top 15 team... You know that same team that Kansas St only won by 5. It wasn't that long ago Kansas St had a close win against a 5-4 Iowa St.

As for dinging...
- the BCS doesn't look at margin of victory.
- Oregon. The Pac 12 is finally shaking out. The end of the season sees all their "top" teams playing each other.
Week 11: Oregon St vs Stanford
Week 12: Oregon vs Stanford; USC vs UCLA
Week 13: Oregon vs Oregon St; USC vs Notre Dame; Stanford vs UCLA
Depending how this shakes out, Oregon SoS looks that much worse.

The BCS that you were saying is biased a couple weeks ago, right? Whatever, dude.

The computer parts of the BCS don't look at margin of victory etc.

The pollsters voting in the Coach's and Harris poll certainly can though in determining where to rank teams, and that's 2/3rds of the BCS formula.

While Oregon and K State hardly have tough schedules, teams like Oregon State, Stanford, TCU, Texas etc. will help their current SoS while ND's will take a big hit with BC and Wake coming up. Really surprised they chose the ACC for their partial membership. Most years that ACC schedule will hurt their SoS, and they've already said SoS will factor heavily into the selection commitee's decisions on the 4 teams to make the playoff.

But anyway, we can pretty much always count on the exact opposite happening from what opus predicts in sports threads. I always chuckle at your aspie fueled rants and how of target they end up being 95% of the time.

Originally Posted by Genocidal The BCS that you were saying is biased a couple weeks ago, right? Whatever, dude.

I did and it still is. I am not rehasing the conversation.

Originally Posted by dmaul1114 But anyway, we can pretty much always count on the exact opposite happening from what opus predicts in sports threads. I always chuckle at your aspie fueled rants and how of target they end up being 95% of the time.

Opposite... oh like the how I was wrong about Lebron to Miami... like how I was wrong about Howard not to NJ... like how I was wrong about SEC winning the championship the past so many years... I think you are just mad at me since I predicted your team to allow tons of points i.e. losses... again, something else I was right at.

Don't get me wrong, I sometimes have called something wrong (i.e. I thought Oklahoma would beat Notre Dame) but for the most part I have been correct (as it relates to the sports threads I discuss/argue in).

I wonder who is currently winning in the CAG College Football Pick'em

Definitely not that since I new our defense would struggle this year as we lost 8 starters and were moving to the top offensive conference, and I definitely had no doubts it was god awful after the Baylor and Texas games. Though you were sort of wrong about yesterday's game as the D did mostly stop TCU until the blown coverage gave up the 94 yard TD to tie the game up at the end, they had allowed under 300 yards of offense up to that point. If it wasn't for two turnovers giving TCU 14 points (fumbled snap on punt ran in for TD, another TO giving them the ball in the red zone), WVU would have won and people would be talking about the defense's improvements. Thought that would be misplaced as it was more just that TCU's offense isn't great than our crappy D playing much better.

Anyway, I had no delusions that our transition to the Big 12 would be bumpy. I figured 10-2 was best case for this year, and next year would be really tough since we graduate so much talent on offense. Turns out even that was optimistic. We'll have a lot of 6-8 win seasons for a few years at the least. Maybe that will be the norm if we can't improve our recruiting. But I'd take that over 9-10 win seasons in the Big Least as I'd rather be playing top programs and have a chance to prove ourselves than be the big fish in a small pond. Especially with the upcoming playoff system making it next to impossible for those big fish type teams to win a championship as they won't have the SoS to get picked by the committee.

It's your college rants that are mainly off target. You're almost always wrong about polls and where teams will end up ranked etc. and don't seem to understand how the BCS equation works. Talk about how Oregon or K-States SoS may not go up much, while ignoring that NDs is going to take a huge hit with the crappy ACC teams they have up next. You were way off on pretty much every expansion/realignment thing (particular the SEC and Big 12 stuff) etc.

Individual game predictions I'd never knock someone for being wrong as that's just a crap shoot in college due to the parity in the game.

But meh. Your entertainment factor has worn off again, so back on the ignore list with you.

Originally Posted by lordopus99 Too much offense?.... Oklahoma has a better offense than USC and you saw what they did against that solid Notre Dame defense. NDs crummy offense?.... USC defense in their last two games allowed on average 650 yards and 40 points. Pittsburgh has a better defense than USC and the Irish posted 29 points against them... The Irish hushed doubters in Norman yet the doubters came back out since ND didn't posterize Pittsburgh...

Oklahoma does have agood team and N.Dame played their best football of the year there in their victory. Like you, I thought that the Irish would lose that one. I wouldn't go so far as to say the Sooner offense is better than the Trojan's however. Half of why people expected N.Dame to "posterize Pittsburgh" was because they looked so good against Oklahoma. The other half of the expectation derived from the fact that Pittsburgh is a pretty awful team this year. Although they did beat Virginia Tech they were trounced at home by Division 1-AA Youngstown St. It remains the Penguins' only road win as they sit at 5-4. Based on their opponent and their previous week's play, it was reasonable to expect the Irish to look better.

Originally Posted by lordopus99 As for dinging... - Oregon. The Pac 12 is finally shaking out. The end of the season sees all their "top" teams playing each other. Week 11: Oregon St vs Stanford Week 12: Oregon vs Stanford; USC vs UCLA Week 13: Oregon vs Oregon St; USC vs Notre Dame; Stanford vs UCLA Depending how this shakes out, Oregon SoS looks that much worse.

I don't think that the Oregon schedule will look that much worse. First they get a woeful California team and after that Stanford and Oregon St. Stanford will either be 7-3 or 8-2 when they face off. The Beavers will be either 7-3, 8-2, or 9-1 when they meet in the Civil War. Even if UCLA beats both Stanford and USC, in the process devaluing Oregon's victories over them; it still works out fine for the Ducks as they would then face UCLA in the conference title game. As I mentioned earlier, gaining an extra victory from a conference title game will always help a team. I still feel that if Oregon remains undefeated they will finish the season with a higher BCS ranking then Notre Dame.

Originally Posted by lordopus99 I wonder who is currently winning in the CAG College Football Pick'em

I'm not in it, so...blindinglights?

BCS rankings are out:

(undefeated teams in italics)

1. Alabama 9-0
2. K.State 9-0
3. Oregon 9-0
4. N.Dame 9-0
5. Georgia 8-1
6. Florida 8-1
7. LSU 7-2
8. S.Carolina 7-2
9. Louisville 9-0
10. Florida St. 8-1
11. Oregon St. 7-1
12. Oklahoma 6-2
13. Clemson 8-1
14. Stanford 7-2
15. Texas A&M 7-2
16. Nebraska 7-2
17. Texas 7-2
18. UCLA 7-2
19. USC 6-3
20. Louisiana Tech 8-1
21. Mississippi St. 7-2
22. Texas Tech 6-3
23. Rutgers 7-1
24. Northwestern 7-2
25. Toledo 8-1

As expected by almost everyone, Oregon jumped Notre Dame. Their computer ranking will continue to improve if they keep winning. The computers pushed Florida up as the electronic third votes for them to be fourth. That same third really stuck it to their Sunshine State rivals Florida St. as the computers place them 19th! This is a good example of how the human two thirds of the BCS have more sway as FSU ranks tenth despite the computers' ill will.

Here's the BCS stats for the top 4.

Alabama: .9957; Harris- 1; Coach's-1; Computer Avg-1
Kansas State: .9318; Harris- 3; Coach's-3; Computer Avg-3
Oregon: .9166; Harris- 2; Coach's-2; Computer Avg-5
Notre Dame: .9050; Harris- 4; Coach's-4; Computer Avg-2

So ND is definitely not jumping up to number 2 unless Oregon and K State lose. Pollsters don't change rank of unbeaten teams this late in the year, especially with ND not having any huge games left. And their computer numbers will take a big hit with BC and Wake, so they're not going to move up that way either.

Also, I'd expect Oregon to jump K-State if they both win out. They'd stay at 2 in the human polls, and their computer numbers will improve some when they play Stanford, Oregon State and UCLA/USC in the Pac 12 title game. With being ahead in the human polls they don't have to jump ahead of K State in the computers, just get closer and the human polls will carry them over the top since that's 2/3rds of the score.

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Originally Posted by dmaul1114 Definitely not that since I new our defense would struggle this year as we lost 8 starters and were moving to the top offensive conference, and I definitely had no doubts it was god awful after the Baylor and Texas games. Though you were sort of wrong about yesterday's game as the D did mostly stop TCU until the blown coverage gave up the 94 yard TD to tie the game up at the end, they had allowed under 300 yards of offense up to that point. If it wasn't for two turnovers giving TCU 14 points (fumbled snap on punt ran in for TD, another TO giving them the ball in the red zone), WVU would have won and people would be talking about the defense's improvements. Thought that would be misplaced as it was more just that TCU's offense isn't great than our crappy D playing much better.

400+ yards and 39 points still shows lack of defense.

It's your college rants that are mainly off target. You're almost always wrong about polls and where teams will end up ranked etc. and don't seem to understand how the BCS equation works.

Wrong about the polls? I never comment on them until they are released i.e. never guessed on where they will fall. BCS Equation? Yes I know how it works. 2/3 coach/harris and 1/3 6 computer polls. That 1/3 is as bias as the other 2/3 is i.e. flawed.

You were way off on pretty much every expansion/realignment thing (particular the SEC and Big 12 stuff) etc.

You were off too. I remember you think FSU to Big 12. Oklahoma/Texas to Pac 12. The Big East disappearing. All wrong. You just posted every single rumor each half-day. The vast majority of them never turned out.

But meh. Your entertainment factor has worn off again, so back on the ignore list with you.

I get it. It was too hot in the kitchen.

Originally Posted by chuckie88 I'm not in it, so...blindinglights?

It's me Join us next year.

As expected by almost everyone, Oregon jumped Notre Dame. Their computer ranking will continue to improve if they keep winning. The computers pushed Florida up as the electronic third votes for them to be fourth. That same third really stuck it to their Sunshine State rivals Florida St. as the computers place them 19th! This is a good example of how the human two thirds of the BCS have more sway as FSU ranks tenth despite the computers' ill will.

See how the other 1/3 fails. South Carolina with 2 losses and without their 60% offense/runningback is the BCS's #8 team. It is just laughable. 4 spots different from their AP counterpart. I can't remember a year where the BCS poll was this far off from the AP on a consistent basis.

As for my team, the computer rankings only see how bad the other ACC teams (not named Clemson) are and they penalize both of us, even though we win by good margins. At least both of us get statement games against SEC "top" opponents at the end of the season.

Originally Posted by dmaul1114 Alabama: .9957; Harris- 1; Coach's-1; Computer Avg-1 Kansas State: .9318; Harris- 3; Coach's-3; Computer Avg-3 Oregon: .9166; Harris- 2; Coach's-2; Computer Avg-5 Notre Dame: .9050; Harris- 4; Coach's-4; Computer Avg-2 So ND is definitely not jumping up to number 2 unless Oregon and K State lose. Pollsters don't change rank of unbeaten teams this late in the year, especially with ND not having any huge games left. And their computer numbers will take a big hit with BC and Wake, so they're not going to move up that way either.

Number 2 in the 1/3. The next three games aren't going to affect it as much as you might think. Wake potentially comes in with a 6-4 record similar to TCU (a team Kansas State faces). USC should come in with a good enough record.

The other 2/3... What coaches/pollsters aren't going to vote an undefeated Notre Dame in over the other two. The storylines, the press, and the money are too great not to put them in (if they finished undefeated).