CAG TOP ANALYSTS

Beginning with CAGcast #227, Shipwreck debuted the Top Analyst segment, where each castmember of the show will make a prediction toward the future of the gaming industry and monthly NPDs. Below are the predictions and their result once it is confirmed to be correct, or totally wrong. Correct statements will be highlighted in green, while incorrect statements will be highlighted in red. Month corresponds to when original prediction was made.

Janruary '11
Cheapy – Mass Effect 2 for the PS3 will not break the top ten for the January NPDs. - Correct.
Wombat – The number one game for January 2011 will be a game that was released in 2010. – Correct, Call of Duty:Black Ops (released 11/9/10) was the top selling game for January 2011.
Wombat – DC Universe Online cracks the top six in NPD for January 2011. – Wrong, DC Universe debuted at #10 with 195,000 units sold.

February '11
Cheapy - Marvel vs. Capcom 3 will not sell as many copies as Bulletstorm for February. - Incorect. MvC3 was no. 2, while Bulletstorm was no. 7.
Cheapy – The cheapest version of the Sony NGP (Vita) will be $249.99. - Correct - The Wifi version of the Vita will retail at $249.99 when it launches this holiday.
Shipwreck - Call of Duty:Black Ops will be the top first person shooter through April 2011. - Feb. - Correct March - Incorrect - Homefront outsold COD:BLOPS April - Correct.
Wombat - For the February NPDs, the sales for Killzone 3 and Bulletstorm will be so close, they will be listed back-to-back. (1-2, 5-6, etc.) -Correct, Bulletstorm was no. 7 and Killzone 3 was no. 8.

March '11
Rank the following games in order by sales: Dragon Age 2, Crysis 2, Homefront.
Cheapy - Dragon Age 2, Crysis 2, Homefront - Incorrect.
Shipwreck - Homefront, Dragon Age 2, Crysis 2 - Correct.
Wombat - Dragon Age 2, Homefront, Crysis 2 - Incorrect.

Future Predictions (To be Determined)
Shipwreck – NGP will be no better than the fifth best-selling gaming handheld in America during its first three years.
Shipwreck – The Darkness 2 will be available for $20 within six weeks of it being released.


Standings
Wombat 2-2
Cheapy 2-2
Shipwreck 1-1

Feel free to discuss any of the predictions made and if you think they will make the grade or fail miserably. Also if you have any suggestions for predictions for the cast, post it in the thread and maybe they'll use it.

This is actually pretty cool,keeping score. I think they should make assumptions about things that would happen within a month or two. Maybe even make a long time assumption and an early one?

Originally Posted by snakelda This is actually pretty cool,keeping score. I think they should make assumptions about things that would happen within a month or two. Maybe even make a long time assumption and an early one?

I agree. I think Cheapy and Wombat got the idea during Cagcast #228. Maybe Ship is just letting them have a head start before he begins making his actual picks.

I'm anxious to see how that Bulletstorm vs MvC3 prediction comes out. Both sides have a lot of potential, MvC3 with all the MvC2/fighter fans and Bulletstorm with all of the OMG EVIL GAME press coverage.

February NPD's are in. Cheapy wrong, Wombat right and Shipwreck stays alive.

1.) Call of Duty: Black Ops (Activision Blizzard: 360, PS3, WII, NDS, PC)
2.) Marvel vs. Capcom 3: Fate of Two Worlds (Capcom: 360, PS3)
3.) Just Dance 2 (Ubisoft: Wii)
4.) NBA 2K11 (Take-Two: 360, PS3, PSP, WII, PS2, PC)
5.) Dead Space 2 (EA: 360, PS3, PC)
6.) Zumba Fitness: Join the Party (Majesco: WII, 360, PS3)
7.) Bulletstorm (EA: 360, PS3, PC)
8.) Killzone 3 (Sony: PS3)
9.) Michael Jackson The Experience (Ubisoft: WII, DS, PSP)
10.) Mario Sports Mix (Nintendo: WII)

NeoGAF has some numbers for those rankings. Also, an interesting fact that might help Shipwreck's case: CODBLOps has surpassed Wii Play as the best selling title in the US.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...46&postcount=1

Software: 1.) Call of Duty: Black Ops (Activision Blizzard: 360, PS3, WII, NDS, PC) [Now the best selling game in the U.S. ever] 2.) Marvel vs. Capcom 3: Fate of Two Worlds (Capcom: 360, PS3) - 790.2K 3.) Just Dance 2 (Ubisoft: Wii) - 554K 4.) NBA 2K11 (Take-Two: 360, PS3, PSP, WII, PS2, PC) 5.) Dead Space 2 (EA: 360, PS3, PC) 6.) Zumba Fitness: Join the Party (Majesco: WII, 360, PS3) 7.) Bulletstorm (EA: 360, PS3, PC) - 285.6K 8.) Killzone 3 (Sony: PS3) - 279.9K 9.) Michael Jackson The Experience (Ubisoft: WII, DS, PSP) 10.) Mario Sports Mix (Nintendo: WII) LTD Software: Call Of Duty: Black Ops: 13.7 Million New Super Mario Bros. DS: 9 Million New Super Mario Bros. Wii: 8 Million Donkey Kong Country Returns: 2 Million Pokemon SoulSilver: 2 Million Hardware: Xbox 360 - 535,000 (+27%) [Top Console, 360's Best Non-Holiday Month Ever] Wii - 454,000 (+14%)

Originally Posted by Cao Cao NeoGAF has some numbers for those rankings. Also, an interesting fact that might help Shipwreck's case: CODBLOps has surpassed Wii Play as the best selling title in the US. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...46&postcount=1

7.) Bulletstorm (EA: 360, PS3, PC) - 285.6K
8.) Killzone 3 (Sony: PS3) - 279.9K

I am seriously impressed with how close I was. Pat on Back +1

Thanks for the info guys. I figured it would be out soon.

Surprised at how far apart Cheapy's prediction really was. I never would of imagined that MvC3 would sell that much. Sheesh...

Are there any good explanations as to why the Wii sold so poorly this month relative to pretty much every other NPD?

March's NPD's are in.


01.Pokemon White Version (NDS) Nintendo
02. Pokemon Black Version (NDS) Nintendo
03. Homefront (360, PS3, PC) THQ
04. Dragon Age II (360, PS3, PC)** Electronic Arts
05. Call of Duty: Black Ops (360, PS3, NDS, Wii, PC)** Activision Blizzard
06.Lego Star Wars III: The Clone Wars (Wii, 360, NDS, PS3, 3DS, PSP, PC) LucasArts
07. Crysis 2 (360, PS3, PC) Electronic Arts
08. NBA 2K11 (360, PS3, PS2, Wii, PSP, PC) Take 2 Interactive
09. MLB 11: The Show (PS3, PSP, PS2) Sony
10. Fight Night Champion (360, PS3) Electronic Arts


So Shipwreck was wrong with his Black Ops prediction. God bless the Pokemanz, every one.

An idea for an April prediction for the cast. How many 3DS games do you think will place in the top ten? Usually whatever Nintendo touches turns to gold, but with the weak launch lineup, are they shut out of the list? My prediction is that Nintendogs + Cats breaks through. Nothing else does though.

What's Cragon Age?

They should predict what sells more in May: Wii, 360 or PS3?

NPDs for April are out, and no surprise who is on top. Sadly the cast did not do any predictions for April. Lame.

01. Mortal Kombat 2011 (PS3, 360)** Warner Bros. Interactive - 900K(Higher Debut Than Both Street Fighter IV and MvC 3)
02. Portal 2 (360, PS3, PC) Electronic Arts
03. Lego Star Wars III: The Clone Wars (Wii, NDS, 360, 3DS, PS3, PC) LucasArts
04. Call of Duty: Black Ops (360, PS3, NDS, Wii, PC)** Activision Blizzard
05. Tiger Woods PGA Tour 12: The Masters (360, PS3, Wii)** Electronic Arts
06. Crysis 2 (360, PS3, PC) Electronic Arts
07. Just Dance 2 (Wii) Ubisoft
08. Michael Jackson The Experience (360, Wii, PS3, NDS, PSP) Ubisoft
09. Pokemon White Version (NDS) Nintendo
10. NBA 2K11 (360, PS3, Wii, PSP, PS2, PC) Take 2 Interactive

That's one more point for Cheapy and that ties Wombat up top with a 2-2 record. Who the hell would of thought the NG...I mean Vita was going to be $250? A crazy bald guy in Japan, that's who...

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I have a suggestion for a future Top Analyst, if Cheapy, Ship or Wombat is interested.

This two fantasy games come out from long running series, both with Sky in the title: The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword and The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim. I ask which of these two our intrepid hosts think will sell better. To make it more interesting, I would suggest limiting Skyrim sales to the lead console rather than combined PS3, 360 and PC sales.

Or who knows, maybe Zelda will beat all cumulative sales of Skyrim. What say you, CAGcast hosts?

Thread is now wikifyed. If you see anything on the list that I missed, feel free to add it.

Two months left for Darkness 2 to hit $19.99. Sitting at $39.99 right now. (Released 2/7/12)