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I'm just curious where everyone's at here. What do you think the bottom will look like? Do you think Obama will do anything of substance? CAN Obama do anything of substance? How long do you think it'll last? Who will be the winners and losers? Are there gonna be Hoovervilles again? Is public works ala Keynes the way to go?

Originally Posted by speedracer What do you think the bottom will look like?

Therein lies most of the problem. Nobody has a clear idea of how big the problem is. Some people say there are $5 trillion in toxic investments while I've heard other people claim there are $150 trillion.

Originally Posted by speedracer Do you think Obama will do anything of substance?

I think Obama is trying. Presidents such as Reagan realized there was little they could do other than project the right image. Presidents such as Bush projected the wrong image.

Originally Posted by speedracer CAN Obama do anything of substance?

He could end the war in Iraq and Afghanistan with the blessing of the Congress. That would free up hundreds of billions of dollars each year that could be used or wasted building up the home economy.

Originally Posted by speedracer How long do you think it'll last?

We've been in a recession for a year already. Things aren't improving yet. So, another year is a given. 2 years are probably optimistic. 10 years if we don't start behaving responsibly (ie. ending the wars and demanding investors accept some losses).

Originally Posted by fatherofcaitlyn Some people say there are $5 trillion in toxic investments

Well, the Federal Reserve pledged 7 trillion dollars towards the credit crunch, so I'm willing to bet we're doing okay on that front.

I would dispute the claim that there is little Presidents can do outside of projecting the right image. And Reagan did plenty - his principles have been destroying the country over the last 26 years.

FDR did plenty, going so far as saying at the start that if the Congress would not help him, he would take it upon himself and his office to do it anyway.

Things are going to get worse, and stay bad for a long time. Even if Obama governs more progressively than he appears to be (he's not quite progressive enough for me), the hole we've been digging for decades will take time to get out of. The positive investments that need to be made will take time to pay off. We're at least 5 years away only if we take the appropriate steps next year. If not, then we can stay in a ditch until true progressive changes are made.

My guess is the stock market will just bounce around like it has been for a while, probably bottom out arouund 7,000-7500 and bounche from that low to 9,000-9,500.

Unemployement will probably bottom out at 7.5-8% if I had to guess.

I'd say it will take 3-4 years for things to start another prolonged upswing.

So no, no Hooverstown. And not even a depression. Just a fairly bad recession is my guess.

I personally think that we continue to get the typical Santa Clause rally and with the markets being down as much as they are we could easily see a run up to 1000 on the S&P.

Then come late Q1/early Q2 of next year we look to retest the lows before putting in a final bottom for this downturn based on a late 09 early 2010 upturn.

But at this point the only thing that is really guaranteed is that we will continue to see these constant 3-4% intraday swings for maybe months to come.

Originally Posted by dmaul1114 Unemployement will probably bottom out at 7.5-8% if I had to guess.

If the Big 3 fall, that's unlikely.

Right now. We're at 6.7%. If the Big 3 go under, that's another 3 million on the unemployment rolls.

As a nation of 300 million, only 200 million are of working age (18-67). That's another 1.5% of the workforce or 8.2% in total unemployment. Throw in every other company and government agency forced to cut staff and we could hit 10% unemployment real easy.

Government agencies cutting staff?

LOL

Originally Posted by fatherofcaitlyn If the Big 3 fall, that's unlikely.

I don't see the government letting them fall.

But really it's hard to say what will happen with the unemployment rate and stock market. I'm mainly basing my "opinion" off of various estimates I've read. But who knows how right they are.

Originally Posted by KingBroly Government agencies cutting staff? LOL

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&f...earch&aq=f&oq=

Originally Posted by speedracer I'm just curious where everyone's at here. What do you think the bottom will look like?

It is impossible to predict, but we should be prepared for the worst.

Do you think Obama will do anything of substance?

No.

CAN Obama do anything of substance?

Yes.

Who will be the winners and losers?

The winners will be those who are politically connected. The losers will be those who are not politically connected.

Is public works ala Keynes the way to go?

No.

I think the DOW might flirt with the 6000's at one point. There is still another wave of crap hitting the fan. Not to mention the dollar being in the tank from all of the printing press action by the Fed.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...set-chart.html

Originally Posted by CappyCobra I think the DOW might flirt with the 6000's at one point. There is still another wave of crap hitting the fan. Not to mention the dollar being in the tank from all of the printing press action by the Fed. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...set-chart.html

You're not supposed to watch Squawk Box. Just have faith the gubmint will fix it.

The US dollar is toast. We've already had record amounts of stimulus and paper printing, and we are going to do a hell of alot more over the coming 12 months. There is bipartisan consensus that we need to print print print, spend spend spend, inflate inflate inflate. I think they may succeed in buying temporary prosperity...but this will be artificial and it will not last because our government is utterly bankrupt. The entire system needs to collapse in on itself and we need to let some real PAIN sink into the system before we truly hit rock bottom. Painkillers can only get you so far when you have cancer. If you want to be cured, you need painful and unpleasant radiation treatment..and our politicians have been preventing that at all costs.

They are going to throw a multi trillion dollar party with your tax money and reinflate things again..but when that bubble pops, it will be the depression to end all depressions.

Originally Posted by Capitalizt The US dollar is toast. We've already had record amounts of stimulus and paper printing, and we are going to do a hell of alot more over the coming 12 months. There is bipartisan consensus that we need to print print print, spend spend spend, inflate inflate inflate. I think they may succeed in buying temporary prosperity...but this will be artificial and it will not last because our government is utterly bankrupt. The entire system needs to collapse in on itself and we need to let some real PAIN sink into the system before we truly hit rock bottom. Painkillers can only get you so far when you have cancer. If you want to be cured, you need painful and unpleasant radiation treatment..and our politicians have been preventing that at all costs. They are going to throw a multi trillion dollar party with your tax money and reinflate things again..but that bubble pops, it will be the depression to end all depressions.

It's like being a drug addict. Sure, another hit will feel good for now and quitting would be painful, but it needs to be done, and the more you put it off the worse it's going to be.

Originally Posted by fatherofcaitlyn http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&f...earch&aq=f&oq=

Cutting jobs is one thing, but lowering their costs is another.

We are royally ed.

The dollar will soon be worthless. Gov't is under siege by bankers and wall street... plus, it is run by incompetent dolts.

There is very little production done by our society; we are mainly service and consumer oriented. That is not sustainable.

True unemployment (not the fake figures given out by our gov't), will be ~25%.

It's going to be bad...
I'd recommend buying gold and spreading your money around overseas banks. Plus get ready for tax revolts and food riots... as the government tries to further squeeze the little guy.

And if you are going for a useless degree in college (e.g. pol sci, sociology, english, etc.) after which you won't be able to get a job, quit now, stop wasting your money, and go into something that has a future: engineering, medicine, hard sciences (focusing on alternative energies), etc.

I've already got my EU passport in hand and will have a low threshold for bailing when things really start to fall apart...

I don't know when this will bottom out or end. But I do predict that next Christmas's hot hard-to-find item will be a can of pork and beans.

Oh and check it out, Congress just got a raise, even while we almost unanimously disapprove of their job. I thought it was worthy of it's own thread.

Originally Posted by BigT We are royally ed. The dollar will soon be worthless. Gov't is under siege by bankers and wall street... plus, it is run by incompetent dolts. There is very little production done by our society; we are mainly service and consumer oriented. That is not sustainable. True unemployment (not the fake figures given out by our gov't), will be ~25%. It's going to be bad... I'd recommend buying gold and spreading your money around overseas banks. Plus get ready for tax revolts and food riots... as the government tries to further squeeze the little guy. And if you are going for a useless degree in college (e.g. pol sci, sociology, english, etc.) after which you won't be able to get a job, quit now, stop wasting your money, and go into something that has a future: engineering, medicine, hard sciences (focusing on alternative energies), etc. I've already got my EU passport in hand and will have a low threshold for bailing when things really start to fall apart...

An EU passport could normally be useful but is that really a good plan B? If the shit really hits the fan here, it'll already be splattered all over the room over there.

A good 30 minute review of how we got here and how bad it is:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_TjB...layer_embedded