749 replies to this topic

[Blaster man]

Looks like the anecdotal evidence has been proven true. After the initial first week "rush" they weren't able to sustain sales. That's pretty bad for a launch around Christmas. The 360 sold 1.1 million by the end of 2005. Not only that, it was completely sold out - both the arcade and premium at that time. Wii U was not sold out except for the tail end of the launch week (not even the launch day in most stores). The PS3 did 1.2 million sales the year it launched.
http://www.computera...he-us-analysts/

update: 1/30/2013
Post #84 updated with this link and demand for apology.
http://online.wsj.co...0108154866.html

Edited by Blaster man, 13 April 2013 - 03:14 AM.

[Billytwoshoes]

Acutally I think the article states it sold 600k in December (actually somewhere between the two different sales research numbers of 675-600k). The 360 sold 1.7million last month though.

[Blaster man]

Acutally I think the article states it sold 600k in December (actually somewhere between the two different sales research numbers of 675-600k). The 360 sold 1.7million last month though.

You're right. I was quoting the headlining number. Either way, that doesn't seem that great - even at 675k, the 360 and PS3 both sold about 80% more when they launched.

I'm not really surprised. I think there was a vocal minority that actually purchased the Wii U console that simply couldn't stand to hear that the console may not be selling out everywhere. The problem is that if you have some kind of interest in it's success then you have to wonder how biased you're being. It seemed REALLY obvious to most of us. I mean, when the 360 launched the Pro and the Arcades were all sold out. The Wii U wasn't sold out and you could easily get the Basic unit almost everywhere.

[SEH]

More importantly, who the hell are the 500 people who bought a brand new PS2 in December?

[Blaster man]

More importantly, who the hell are the 500 people who bought a brand new PS2 in December?

I saw that. The PS3 was 199.99 on BF so if people wanted to stick with Sony they could have just bought that. Maybe it's people that have some PS2 games they love and their PS2's broke?

[KingBroly]

So, the article your quoting said 600,000 in December, which obviously omits the 400,000+ they sold in November. Please, check your sources. This is wrong by the way, as the Wii U is at 890,000 in the US through December.

So please, check your facts before you start a doom/gloom thread.

[trip1eX]

Yes and way too early to start a doom and gloom thread anyway.

And Nintendo is still selling a lot of systems. Some 3 million ain't too bad when you add it all up.

[scottman]

More importantly, who the hell are the 500 people who bought a brand new PS2 in December?

Just a few months ago, bestbuy and some other stores still had them. Now I don't see them. I even bought one as a spare when they hit clearance at target about a year ago. How else will you play all your old ps2 games when your ps2 breaks in the age of no BC consoles since they want to gouge you into rebuying it as an emulation.

[Erad30]

Also some big retailers like walmart don't even release sales numbers, so it's probably higher.

[Friend of Sonic]

I wonder what places still sell new PS2's, and why the hell they're getting tracked at all.

[PimpLimp]

Surprisingly, the Wii U isn't doing much better in it's home country of Japan. According to ANN, it's sold just a tad under 700k units in it's first five week.

[TheLongshot]

I wonder what places still sell new PS2's, and why the hell they're getting tracked at all.

Well, they won't be going forward, more than likely, because Sony just stopped production of the PS2. As to why, PS3s don't play PS2 games, and there is a huge library of PS2 games that can be got for relatively cheap. Hell, I still play with my PS2 on occasion.

As for the numbers, I pretty much expect any new console to struggle a bit because people are probably satisfied with what they have. I like the WiiU, but between the PS2, the PS3, the Wii and my PC, I've probably got more than enough games to last me for years. It is going to be hard for any new console to bring a significantly different experience than what they already have.

[Erad30]

http://www.ign.com/a...he-wii-u-launch

-This article is actually a pretty good piece on how they've done so far. No they haven't outpaced the Wii, but I don't think that was the expectation on anyone's end. It's doing pretty well, bottom line.

[Javery]

Whew. I was getting worried that we were almost 2 weeks into the new year and someone hadn't predicted the failure of "Nintendo ____". I think this is about 16 or 17 years running now, right?

The good news is that we are probably less than a year away from these posts once Mario/Zelda/Metroid comes out:

Edited by Javery, 11 January 2013 - 06:19 PM.

[theflicker]

You're right. I was quoting the headlining number. Either way, that doesn't seem that great - even at 675k, the 360 and PS3 both sold about 80% more when they launched.

I'm not really surprised. I think there was a vocal minority that actually purchased the Wii U console that simply couldn't stand to hear that the console may not be selling out everywhere. The problem is that if you have some kind of interest in it's success then you have to wonder how biased you're being. It seemed REALLY obvious to most of us. I mean, when the 360 launched the Pro and the Arcades were all sold out. The Wii U wasn't sold out and you could easily get the Basic unit almost everywhere.

The problem is, when you gleefully start misinformed threads you have to wonder how biased you're being.

[confoosious]

The problem is, when you gleefully start misinformed threads you have to wonder how biased you're being.

Look at his posting history on nintendo threads and the bias is really clear.

Everyone is so quick to predict doom and gloom, it's pretty funny. Why can't people just let a product succeed or fail and let it be? Why the glee in failure of products?

[SaraAB]

Is it really right to whine about systems sales when they aren't up to snuff? Its not like this thing is selling nothing, it is selling plenty. Not every product is going to sell out at launch, geez! It only has 1-2 games that are worth playing on it, once more games come out the sales will pick up a bit. Its also expensive, and its new, and its trying to compete with other consoles that are priced much less and a market that is already oversaturated with other products. I don't think every console has to be a runaway success and sell out every unit to be considered a success.

[kill3r7]

Look at his posting history on nintendo threads and the bias is really clear.

Everyone is so quick to predict doom and gloom, it's pretty funny. Why can't people just let a product succeed or fail and let it be? Why the glee in failure of products?

Human nature. The same reason people determine a films worth based on its box office numbers and what critics think. People want reassurance that their hard earned money was spent on the best product in the market. Also, the "superior" system tends to have better games (well at very least more games).

[Blaster man]

Look at his posting history on nintendo threads and the bias is really clear.

Everyone is so quick to predict doom and gloom, it's pretty funny. Why can't people just let a product succeed or fail and let it be? Why the glee in failure of products?

There's bias and there's realism. Unlike you guys I have no vested interest in the console's success and can see the facts more clearly. Back when everyone was saying the Wii was a fad and going to fail I told people it would succeed. Now I say this will sell poorly. I predict less than 50 million lifetime sales. Bookmark the post and come back and build me a shrine.

[TheLongshot]

There's bias and there's realism. Unlike you guys I have no vested interest in the console's success and can see the facts more clearly. Back when everyone was saying the Wii was a fad and going to fail I told people it would succeed. Now I say this will sell poorly. I predict less than 50 million lifetime sales. Bookmark the post and come back and build me a shrine.

You act like selling 50 million consoles would be awful for Nintendo. The only Nintendo consoles that sold more than that are the NES and the Wii.

To be honest, I don't expect the successors to the PS3 and the XBox 360 will have the same kind of sales numbers as what they are replacing.

[Blaster man]

You act like selling 50 million consoles would be awful for Nintendo. The only Nintendo consoles that sold more than that are the NES and the Wii.

To be honest, I don't expect the successors to the PS3 and the XBox 360 will have the same kind of sales numbers as what they are replacing.

70 million each? I expect they'll both do better. The pool of gamers will expand each generation. People that don't understand them die and people that grew up with them mature. It's the way population shifts happen.

[kill3r7]

70 million each? I expect they'll both do better. The pool of gamers will expand each generation. People that don't understand them die and people that grew up with them mature. It's the way population shifts happen.

If that was the true, then why has the industry (overall sales figures) shrunk the last 2 or 3 years. Also, why are all of these developers and publishers going out of business?

[TheLongshot]

70 million each? I expect they'll both do better. The pool of gamers will expand each generation. People that don't understand them die and people that grew up with them mature. It's the way population shifts happen.

There is also a lot more competition. It would be a tough haul for either console to reach the Wii's lifetime numbers. None of them are going to even touch the PS2's numbers, either in sales or longevity.

I don't think you can project that the market is going to expand endlessly. In fact, I do see a crunch of sorts in the future. Not the doom-and-gloom crash that many are predicting, but I think the next generation will have a harder time than the previous one.

[Blaster man]

If that was the true, then why has the industry (overall sales figures) shrunk the last 2 or 3 years. Also, why are all of these developers and publishers going out of business?

It hasn't shrunk. Sales of packaged products have shrunk. People have moved to downloads and steam. The console cycle dragged on for too long and they couldn't compete with PC graphics. I think it's also important to consider that some of this may be video games returning to the traditional demographics that play them (ie: the Wii is no longer that relevant).

[kill3r7]

It hasn't shrunk. Sales of packaged products have shrunk. People have moved to downloads and steam. The console cycle dragged on for too long and they couldn't compete with PC graphics. I think it's also important to consider that this may be video games returning to the traditional demographics that play them (ie: the Wii is no longer that relevant).

If that was the case then why are all of these developers closing up shop. Furthermore, why is the Vita stuttering out of the gate. The Vita by all indications should be the ideal system for most of the traditional gaming demographic. Yet it won't sell. The whole everyone turned into a PC gamer argument is hard to swallow when developers are going out of business every month. Why aren't these companies being saved by PC gamers. Oh wait maybe the industry is simply really hurting and besides a handful of blockbuster games most games end up losing them money. I won't deny that Steam is doing incredibly well and they are forcing M$ and Sony to adapt but they still have a ways to go before competing with console game sales.

[Blaster man]

If that was the case then why are all of these developers closing up shop. Furthermore, why is the Vita stuttering out of the gate. The Vita by all indications should be the ideal system for most of the traditional gaming demographic. Yet it won't sell. The whole everyone turned into a PC gamer argument is hard to swallow when developers are going out of business every month. Why aren't these companies being saved by PC gamers. Oh wait maybe the industry is simply really hurting and besides a handful of blockbuster games most games end up losing them money. I won't deny that Steam is doing incredibly well and they are forcing M$ and Sony to adapt but they still have a ways to go before competing with console game sales.

So what exactly are you indicating by "all" developer closing up shop? That there will be little to no video games in the future since they will "all" be closed up?

Your rediculous assertion aside, the Vita is "shuttering out of the gate" because it's a failure. No one wants it. The product itself is at fault. The Dreamcast didn't fail because no one was playing video games, everyone just bought a PS1 or an N64. In this case no one wants it because Smartphones have disrupted that market. A product failure isn't an indication of an entire industry failing.

Game developers have gone under every generation. It's much more publicized these days since the gaming news is much bigger and gamers are more sophisticated and interested in these events. That said, a big part of the reason for so many bankruptcies is that the consoles are becoming more expensive to develop for. Take THQ for example, I owned their stock and lost a lot of money. Did you know that they reported on their conference call that they had to sell TWO MILLION copies of a game just to break even? In the past selling 1 million copies was considered a big success and would generate profits for the company.

In other words, the reason that these studios are going under is because development costs have gone up. It's being described as "the bottom falling out of the mid tier market" but in reality what's happening is that selling a million copies of a mid tier game means you're losing money instead of turning a tidy little profit. Take Darksiders 2 for instance, that game shipped 1.4 million copies and only sold around 250k the month it was released. After that they had to have steep discounting. They'd have to do another shipment prior to being able to break even and obviously another shipment won't happen since they have plenty of stock left on the shelves. I'd call that a mid-tier game as it's a decent game but not AAA. That's a perfect example of a decent seller (it's sold through almost 1 million now) that simply can't turn a profit.

[jkam]

Not to add to this already obvious flame war but as a long time Nintendo fan I sat out from buying a Wii U. I used to defend them tooth and nail in the Gamecube days but after releases like New Super Mario Bros. 2 and a lackluster showing from the Wii I'm not sure why I should support them anymore. I adored Super Mario 3D for the 3DS but overall I feel as if the stuff they make that really pushes the envelope is further and fewer between all the garbage.

It's obvious to me after using a VITA and then going back to the 3DS there are other reasons to include higher specs (more power) into your systems. The menus on the 3DS are painfully slow and unresponsive which were similar complaints heard from early Wii U adopters. They are touting HD like it's something new. The tablet isn't all that interesting. I know it's about the games but I'm not sure there will be enough on the Wii U to sway me anymore.

I'll always have a soft spot for Nintendo but overall as it stands I'm speaking with my $$$ by not supporting them.

[SaraAB]

Um the Vita isn't selling because it has almost no games on it and it requires a really expensive memory card as an additional purchase. Game downloads are also huge on this thing, I am not sure if the Sony thing of having to have double memory just to download something applies but still the prices are painful and the capacity is small for what we are expected to do with it, not including the extra space required to use its extra movies and music features. If they made a model with 32GB storage built in and charged $299 for it I am sure it would be selling more. Not having a UMD trade in or some way to get your PSP games onto the Vita is also killing this thing, how many people would have bought one if they knew they could transfer all their PSP games over and play them on the Vita digitally in some way. I know I would have.

[kill3r7]

So what exactly are you indicating by "all" developer closing up shop? That there will be little to no video games in the future since they will "all" be closed up?

Please don't quote out of context. In writing "all those" developers closing up shop every month, I was referring to various studios who filed for bankruptcy almost on a monthly basis this past year. Obviously it's not every developer but it doesn't bode well for the industry which already is reliant on a few heavy weights.

A product failure isn't an indication of an entire industry failing.

No you are right, a single product failure is not an indicator of the entire industry but it is an indicator that Sony is in trouble. They are in desperate need of a hit system. After having released a dud they are going to come back strong with the PS4 while still trying to support the Vita. I think this will make my point for me. You seem like a numbers guy so I'll point you to this single stat. Nintendo's market cap is higher than Sony's, mind you that Sony is a company which produces TVs and other electronics besides videogames. They were a $200B company in 2000 and they are worth only $20B today. Sony more so then Nintendo or M$ caters to gamers(non casual). So, why aren't they reaping the benefits of our support.

Game developers have gone under every generation. It's much more publicized these days since the gaming news is much bigger and gamers are more sophisticated and interested in these events. That said, a big part of the reason for so many bankruptcies is that the consoles are becoming more expensive to develop for. Take THQ for example, I owned their stock and lost a lot of money. Did you know that they reported on their conference call that they had to sell TWO MILLION copies of a game just to break even? In the past selling 1 million copies was considered a big success and would generate profits for the company.

In other words, the reason that these studios are going under is because development costs have gone up. It's being described as "the bottom falling out of the mid tier market" but in reality what's happening is that selling a million copies of a mid tier game means you're losing money instead of turning a tidy little profit. Take Darksiders 2 for instance, that game shipped 1.4 million copies and only sold around 250k the month it was released. After that they had to have steep discounting. They'd have to do another shipment prior to being able to break even and obviously another shipment won't happen since they have plenty of stock left on the shelves. I'd call that a mid-tier game as it's a decent game but not AAA. That's a perfect example of a decent seller (it's sold through almost 1 million now) that simply can't turn a profit.

I totally agree that development cost is one of the issues as to why so many developers are failing. It seems to me that you are suggestion that the way to profitability for these developers is through PC gaming. Well, the next logical step is that more developers will move towards making PC games. That would mean that more folks are going to gravitate to PC games. Thus, more folks are playing PC games which then means less of them are buying consoles. Ultimately, proving Longshot's point. Also, development costs are not going to be any lower for the PS4 and Xbox720. So, how can this possibly be a good thing for the industry.

[Blaster man]

Not to add to this already obvious flame war but as a long time Nintendo fan I sat out from buying a Wii U. I used to defend them tooth and nail in the Gamecube days but after releases like New Super Mario Bros. 2 and a lackluster showing from the Wii I'm not sure why I should support them anymore. I adored Super Mario 3D for the 3DS but overall I feel as if the stuff they make that really pushes the envelope is further and fewer between all the garbage.

It's obvious to me after using a VITA and then going back to the 3DS there are other reasons to include higher specs (more power) into your systems. The menus on the 3DS are painfully slow and unresponsive which were similar complaints heard from early Wii U adopters. They are touting HD like it's something new. The tablet isn't all that interesting. I know it's about the games but I'm not sure there will be enough on the Wii U to sway me anymore.

I'll always have a soft spot for Nintendo but overall as it stands I'm speaking with my $$$ by not supporting them.

Watch out calling it a "tablet". You'll be bashed like crazy by people telling you that it's the "gamepad" and not a tablet. I expect to buy the Wii U in a year or two when it's $100 less. I see no reason to defend any particular console and personally I gave up on buying consoles on release after I got the N64 because great games like Final Fantasy 64 and Earthbound 64 were going to come out for it. Buying a console on promises doesn't always work out. Another good example of why not to buy consoles on release is this current generation. Sony promised all kinds of games at launch that would come out a few months into 2007. Most of those games didn't come out for YEARS. There was a huge game drought and anyone that bought a PS3 with the intention of playing some of those games could have waited until they were actually released and saved a bunch of money on the console. Some of those PS3 games were delayed so long that Sony must have outright lied about the launch dates to bait people into buying the console.

Please don't quote out of context. In writing "all those" developers closing up shop every month, I was referring to various studios who filed for bankruptcy almost on a monthly basis this past year. Obviously it's not every developer but it doesn't bode well for the industry which already is reliant on a few heavy weights.

Eh, I don't think it was out of context, it was your first sentence but that's fine.

No you are right, a single product failure is not an indicator of the entire industry but it is an indicator that Sony is in trouble. They are in desperate need of a hit system. After having released a dud they are going to come back strong with the PS4 while still trying to support the Vita. I think this will make my point for me. You seem like a numbers guy so I'll point you to this single stat. Nintendo's market cap is higher than Sony's, mind you that Sony is a company which produces TVs and other electronics besides videogames. They were a $200B company in 2000 and they are worth only $20B today. Sony more so then Nintendo or M$ caters to gamers(non casual). So, why aren't they reaping the benefits of our support.

Sony's hardware divisions aren't a reason for a higher market cap. Those divisions are reasons for a LOWER market cap. They produce losses. Sony's on it's way to bankruptcy because of Japanese corporate culture. They're unable to cut divisions that are unprofitable. They need to cut costs of the TV divisions, eliminate them, or spin them off to a Chinese firm that can make a profit from them. I think that they would see this as a humiliation unlike an American firm (like IBM that spun it's PC division off to Lenovo). In other words, Sony's issues aren't and market cap is a terrible comparison as their video game division isn't the reason for this. Sony has about 160,000 employees while Nintendo has less than 5,000. Nintendo also has twice as much cash on hand as Sony. it's no wonder that Nintendo has a higher market cap, they're in a much better position financially.

I totally agree that development cost is one of the issues as to why so many developers are failing. It seems to me that you are suggestion that the way to profitability for these developers is through PC gaming. Well, the next logical step is that more developers will move towards making PC games. That would mean that more folks are going to gravitate to PC games. Thus, more folks are playing PC games which then means less of them are buying consoles. Ultimately, proving Longshot's point. Also, development costs are not going to be any lower for the PS4 and Xbox720. So, how can this possibly be a good thing for the industry.

What I said earlier is that gamers are moving to the PC because it has better graphics and that when new consoles (not the Wii U) come out, they'll come back to consoles which will be way superior to PC in terms of graphics.

Edited by Blaster man, 11 January 2013 - 11:31 PM.