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Fantasy Football "Who should I start?" thread, Version 2.0


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#1 Danimal

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Posted 22 August 2010 - 09:00 PM

This turned out to be a pretty popular thread last year, so I thought it would be a good time to start a new one for this season. If you never checked the thread out last year, it's devoted to any and all discussion about fantasy football. During the season, it was mostly a place for CAGs to get opinions on who to start each week (Maybe your stud RB is going against a very tough run defense while a lesser back on your team has an easier matchup- who do you start?) We have a lot of CAGs who play fantasy football, so this thread can be a good place to get several very well informed opinions.

For now, most of us are probably preparing for upcoming drafts, and it's never to early to ask for advice or opinions. Like last year, I'll start. I'll be picking 9th in a 12 team serpentine draft. Our scoring system is a modified PPR format (we award a half-point for each reception), mostly standard scoring beside that- 6 points per TD (only 3 for a passing TD, although we're going to take a vote on changing that to 4), 1 point per 10 yards rushing, and/or 20 receiving or passing, etc.

So, with the 9th pick, do I have any chance of landing either Michael Turner or Andre Johnson in the first round? I'd love Turner, but it's hard to picture him still being there at 9. In our draft last year, the first 8 picks included 6 RBs and 2 WRs. I assume Johnson will be the first WR off the board this year, and both guys who went WR in the first round last year pick ahead of me this year. So I doubt I'll have a shot at him. Are there 6 other RBs I can reasonably expect to go ahead of Turner?
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#2 Kilraven

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 12:22 AM

Personally, I think this year is thin on non-RBBC choices. So, I'd say no.

However, with your scoring system, that's not too hateful -- it'll give G-line love-stealing back-ups some legitimacy.

#3 ZForce915

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 12:49 AM

Peterson
C. Johnson
MJD
S. Jackson
Gore
Rice

Those are the only guys I see going in front of Turner. I think you should not be planning on drafting him at #9. As a Packers fan I don't really believe that Ryan Grant is worthy of being your #1 RB so I also would avoid him. He is safe, and a little boring...I don't see you winning a league with him as your #1.
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#4 BigSpoonyBard

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 03:40 AM

With the 9th pick, there's only a very outside chance of Turner falling to you. I've seen people taking Aaron Rodgers and Randy Moss in the 6-9 range, which could possibly allow Turner to drop to you. However, with the low TD scoring for QBs in your league, I wouldn't expect to see a QB in the first round of your draft. Basically, you'd have to hope a couple WRs go early.

There's a definite fall-off after the first 6 RBs are taken. Is it worth taking any other RB in the first round? Stephen Jackson is possible, but don't expect many TDs from him. In my PPR mock drafts where I've been in the 8-12 slot, I've gone WR/WR/QB for the first three rounds, then scooped up quality starting RB options on the cheap in rounds 4-5. I'm just not convinced on the high-end value of any RB outside the top 4 when there are so many unproven commodities and RBBC.

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#5 RAMSTORIA

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 05:07 AM

just had my draft last night... im pretty happy with the results, i was hoping to get brady in the 5th, but he was taken a few picks before, so i took the risk on Kolb. there was an early run on QBs in the 3rd/4th after a brees, rodgers and manning were taken. not sure how that will work out, but i love getting Palmer in the 11th for a backup. my other money league has its draft tuesday.

1. (3) Frank Gore RB
2. (18) Pierre Thomas RB
3. (23) Greg Jennings WR
4. (38) Steve Smith WR
5. (43) Kevin Kolb QB
6. (58) Jason Witten TE
7. (63) Arian Foster RB
8. (78) Jared Allen DE
9. (83) Pierre Garcon WR
10. (98) Kirk Morrison LB
11. (103) Carson Palmer QB
12. (118) Karlos Dansby LB
13. (123) Yeremiah Bell S
14. (138) Malcom Floyd WR
15. (143) Oshiomogho Atogwe S
16. (158) New York DEF
17. (163) Osi Umenyiora DE
18. (178) Chris Cooley TE
19. (183) Fred Jackson RB
20. (198) David Buehler K

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#6 Danimal

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 05:32 AM

With the 9th pick, there's only a very outside chance of Turner falling to you. I've seen people taking Aaron Rodgers and Randy Moss in the 6-9 range, which could possibly allow Turner to drop to you. However, with the low TD scoring for QBs in your league, I wouldn't expect to see a QB in the first round of your draft. Basically, you'd have to hope a couple WRs go early.

Yeah, I think my chances of landing Turner are pretty slim. And I agree; the 3 points per TD pass should scare people away from a first round QB, but there are a couple guys in our league who like to take them. One guy has taken Peyton Manning in the first round twice before, and last year Brady went 10th (we're in Massachusetts) so you never know.

There's a definite fall-off after the first 6 RBs are taken. Is it worth taking any other RB in the first round? Stephen Jackson is possible, but don't expect many TDs from him. In my PPR mock drafts where I've been in the 8-12 slot, I've gone WR/WR/QB for the first three rounds, then scooped up quality starting RB options on the cheap in rounds 4-5. I'm just not convinced on the high-end value of any RB outside the top 4 when there are so many unproven commodities and RBBC.

I agree with this, too. If Turner and Johnson are both gone, I guess I'd maybe be looking at Rashard Mendenhall (if I decide to go RB), but he doesn't excite me. Not sure I could get myself to go WR-WR-QB in the first three rounds. Who are you getting for RBs in rounds 4-5 in those drafts?
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#7 BigSpoonyBard

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 06:14 AM

I agree with this, too. If Turner and Johnson are both gone, I guess I'd maybe be looking at Rashard Mendenhall (if I decide to go RB), but he doesn't excite me. Not sure I could get myself to go WR-WR-QB in the first three rounds. Who are you getting for RBs in rounds 4-5 in those drafts?


In 12-team mocks (I've done a bunch in the last week), these RBs have been available in rounds 4-5 or later:
Beanie Wells, Jahvid Best, Ronnie Brown, Justin Forsett, Joseph Addai, Matt Forte, Jonathan Stweart, Reggie Bush, Knowshon Moreno, Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs, Felix Jones, Marion Barber, Jerome Harrison, Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller, Cadillac Williams, Michael Bush, Arian Foster.

They might not knock you out, but there's definite value, especially in PPR leagues. I'd rather have two stud receivers (some combination of Randy Moss/Miles Austin/Roddy White, for example) than a second tier RB. If you play it right, there are legitimate starting RBs in the later rounds. There aren't many workhorse RBs anymore, and there are a lot of unproven guys going very early. I want the closest thing I can get to a sure thing.

But, then again, that's just my strategy/theory. Ultimately, you just want to maximize the value of each pick, and with committee running backs all over, if you miss on the big guys, I think it's worth the wait. Just don't hold me accountable :lol:

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#8 JStryke

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 10:56 AM

Turner has a shot, but doubtful to be there at #9. Depending who you draft with and who they want, they may be thinking of last year's down season with the injuries and the curse of "370" which he topped back in 2008 iirc. I'm drafting #5 myself and I see myself potentially passing on Turner if he's there.

Who I really want is MJD, if only because of my team name being a reference to the late RJD. :razz:

But here's something that's been on my mind. With his recent scare in training camp and the possibility of having migraines or whatever, should I take a shot on Percy Harvin if he's available later in the draft? I considered it, but now I'm not so sure.

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#9 Danimal

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 11:46 AM

In 12-team mocks (I've done a bunch in the last week), these RBs have been available in rounds 4-5 or later:
Beanie Wells, Jahvid Best, Ronnie Brown, Justin Forsett, Joseph Addai, Matt Forte, Jonathan Stweart, Reggie Bush, Knowshon Moreno, Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs, Felix Jones, Marion Barber, Jerome Harrison, Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller, Cadillac Williams, Michael Bush, Arian Foster.

They might not knock you out, but there's definite value, especially in PPR leagues. I'd rather have two stud receivers (some combination of Randy Moss/Miles Austin/Roddy White, for example) than a second tier RB. If you play it right, there are legitimate starting RBs in the later rounds. There aren't many workhorse RBs anymore, and there are a lot of unproven guys going very early. I want the closest thing I can get to a sure thing.

But, then again, that's just my strategy/theory. Ultimately, you just want to maximize the value of each pick, and with committee running backs all over, if you miss on the big guys, I think it's worth the wait. Just don't hold me accountable :lol:

I would be thrilled to get a few of those guys in rounds 4-5. I'm mostly talking about Wells, Forsett, Harrison, and Spiller. We always seem to have someone in the league get way too excited about the hot new rookie RB in the league each year who takes him way too early. I'm thinking I might be that guy this year, because I've got a feeling Spiller may be something special, and I really want to get him. I know I'll be considering him pretty strongly as early as round 3 (unless someone else pegs him even earlier than that :lol: )

But here's something that's been on my mind. With his recent scare in training camp and the possibility of having migraines or whatever, should I take a shot on Percy Harvin if he's available later in the draft? I considered it, but now I'm not so sure.

In later rounds I think he's worth a shot. I've been wondering how much his stock is dropping in drafts because of all the migraine stuff. He's having problems with it right now, but he's dealt with them his whole life, so I think he's no more of a risk pick this year than he was last year. As a 3rd or even 4th WR, in round 8 or up, I'd roll the dice with him.
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#10 BigSpoonyBard

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 04:17 PM

But here's something that's been on my mind. With his recent scare in training camp and the possibility of having migraines or whatever, should I take a shot on Percy Harvin if he's available later in the draft? I considered it, but now I'm not so sure.


In a 12-team league, Harvin will probably be going in round 5 or 6. If you have two quality WRs and don't see value at RB, he's probably worth the pick in round 6.

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#11 RAMSTORIA

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 04:55 PM

percy harvin dropped pretty low in my draft. i would just make sure that you have starters before you draft harvin. if hes a backup, there could be high rewards later in the season. sidney rice was taken before harvin in my draft this weekend, so yeah, his stock dropped.

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#12 Danimal

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 05:08 PM

RAMSTORIA, by any chance do you remember what round C.J. Spiller went in your draft?
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#13 RAMSTORIA

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 05:15 PM

yeah i can check... looks like spiller was in the 7th round. other RBs that went that round, arian foster, matt forte, jerome harrison, michael bush.

10 team league, so if youre in a 12 team league probably would be late 5th or 6th.


edit: percy harvin went in the 13th. big time drop there, but we do IDP, so he would have gone earlier if not for that.

Edited by RAMSTORIA, 23 August 2010 - 05:55 PM.

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#14 evildeadjedi

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 05:47 PM

I forgot my first draft was last night, so this is what I got:


1. (7) Frank Gore RB
2. (16) Reggie Wayne WR
3. (29) Cedric Benson RB
4. (38) Marques Colston WR
5. (51) Dwayne Bowe WR
6. (60) Tony Gonzalez TE
7. (73) Jay Cutler QB
8. (82) Green Bay DEF
9. (95) Nate Kaeding K
10. (104) Justin Miller CB
11. (117) Dan Klecko DT
12. (126) Adrian Wilson S
13. (139) Morgan Trent CB
14. (148) Justin Forsett RB
15. (161) Jerome Harrison RB
16. (170) Devin Hester WR
17. (183) Lee Evans WR
18. (192) Kyle Orton QB
19. (205) Dustin Keller TE
20. (214) John Kasay K

Overall, I'm happy with what I got can definitely work with this lineup.
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#15 Kilraven

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 11:36 PM

1. (3) Frank Gore RB
2. (18) Pierre Thomas RB
3. (23) Greg Jennings WR
4. (38) Steve Smith WR
5. (43) Kevin Kolb QB
6. (58) Jason Witten TE
7. (63) Arian Foster RB
8. (78) Jared Allen DE
9. (83) Pierre Garcon WR
10. (98) Kirk Morrison LB
11. (103) Carson Palmer QB
12. (118) Karlos Dansby LB
13. (123) Yeremiah Bell S
14. (138) Malcom Floyd WR
15. (143) Oshiomogho Atogwe S
16. (158) New York DEF
17. (163) Osi Umenyiora DE
18. (178) Chris Cooley TE
19. (183) Fred Jackson RB
20. (198) David Buehler K


Aside from Garcon going too soon (too many people forget A Gonz was supposed to take over Marvin's role before he got hurt), I'm really digging your draft.

But here's something that's been on my mind. With his recent scare in training camp and the possibility of having migraines or whatever, should I take a shot on Percy Harvin if he's available later in the draft? I considered it, but now I'm not so sure.


Here's the thing to remember about Harvin: when he played, his numbers were really inconsistent week by week. Unless your league does return yardage, I'm not sure I'd trust him. Not only that, you're talking about Favre here - AP and Shiancoe get the G-line love, Rice gets (maybe not as much with the injury and Javon possibly signing) the trust. We all know Harvin can explode, but I don't think he can do it reliably week in and week out.

I would be thrilled to get a few of those guys in rounds 4-5. I'm mostly talking about Wells, Forsett, Harrison, and Spiller. We always seem to have someone in the league get way too excited about the hot new rookie RB in the league each year who takes him way too early. I'm thinking I might be that guy this year, because I've got a feeling Spiller may be something special, and I really want to get him. I know I'll be considering him pretty strongly as early as round 3 (unless someone else pegs him even earlier than that :lol: )


In one of my leagues he went 10th (partly because of two Bills fans), and I seen him go as the 9th pick in the 4th round (a 3-man keeper, so technically he went 1st round there, too). The thing I like about him is who he has to compete against - a career back-up and a vilified bust. Jackson hurt his hand this preseason and really was a back-up to Lynch until he got one suspension too many. Then there's Lynch. What a fucking disappointment and looks to be waiting on the Bills to trade him. Spiller continues to play well and he could be #1 by week 4 - if not sooner.

#16 Danimal

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Posted 24 August 2010 - 12:01 AM

1. (3) Frank Gore RB
2. (18) Pierre Thomas RB
3. (23) Greg Jennings WR
4. (38) Steve Smith WR
5. (43) Kevin Kolb QB
6. (58) Jason Witten TE
7. (63) Arian Foster RB
8. (78) Jared Allen DE
9. (83) Pierre Garcon WR
10. (98) Kirk Morrison LB
11. (103) Carson Palmer QB
12. (118) Karlos Dansby LB
13. (123) Yeremiah Bell S
14. (138) Malcom Floyd WR
15. (143) Oshiomogho Atogwe S
16. (158) New York DEF
17. (163) Osi Umenyiora DE
18. (178) Chris Cooley TE
19. (183) Fred Jackson RB
20. (198) David Buehler K


1. (7) Frank Gore RB
2. (16) Reggie Wayne WR
3. (29) Cedric Benson RB
4. (38) Marques Colston WR
5. (51) Dwayne Bowe WR
6. (60) Tony Gonzalez TE
7. (73) Jay Cutler QB
8. (82) Green Bay DEF
9. (95) Nate Kaeding K
10. (104) Justin Miller CB
11. (117) Dan Klecko DT
12. (126) Adrian Wilson S
13. (139) Morgan Trent CB
14. (148) Justin Forsett RB
15. (161) Jerome Harrison RB
16. (170) Devin Hester WR
17. (183) Lee Evans WR
18. (192) Kyle Orton QB
19. (205) Dustin Keller TE
20. (214) John Kasay K

Overall, I'm happy with what I got can definitely work with this lineup.


I like both of these teams, although I've never played IDP, so I'm not sure how to rate those picks. I have a feeling that Malcolm Floyd in the 14th for RAMSTORIA, and Justin Forsett in the 14th for evildeadjedi are going to turn out to be huge steals.
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#17 BigSpoonyBard

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Posted 24 August 2010 - 12:03 AM

I like both of these teams, although I've never played IDP, so I'm not sure how to rate those picks. I have a feeling that Malcolm Floyd in the 14th for RAMSTORIA, and Justin Forsett in the 14th for evildeadjedi are going to turn out to be huge steals.


I think Malcom Floyd is going to be an excellent value pick this year, especially since it seems the Chargers don't think Jackson is worth paying.

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#18 Kilraven

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Posted 24 August 2010 - 12:09 AM

It's more than worth paying, he's already got a 6 game suspension (two threes tacked together) and then wants the new contract after the fact? Hell, I can't blame SD, they've got Floyd (who has a better reach), Naanee is constantly improving, and Antonio mother-fucking Gates - they're solid.

VJax has done great the past couple of years, but I fear he's hit a wall with this attitude of his.

#19 tiddled06

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Posted 24 August 2010 - 04:42 AM

Did my yearly draft with friends again on sunday.. I HATE having so many players (2 Qbs, 3 RB. 3 WR, WR/RB, WR/TE, TE, DEF, K) ..They wanted to keep it the same as last yr (which was default by accident..will change next year regardless) I will shrink this down to 15 or so picks next year. My RBs are strong(and alot of depth), WRs decent, TE and DEF good, and My QBs not so great. What does everyone think my chances are?

Rd1- Ray Rice RB
Rd2- Ryan Matthews RB
Rd3- Shonn Greene RB
Rd4- (realizing ALL top QB's are gone) Brett Favre QB
Rd5- Steve Smith (CAR) WR
Rd6- Chad Ochocinco WR
Rd7- Eli Manning (I Know) QB
Rd8- Marion Barber RB
Rd9- Brent Celek TE
Rd10- Tj Houshmandzadeh WR
Rd11- Cj Spiller RB
Rd12- Arian Foster RB
Rd13- Derrick Mason WR
Rd14- Dez Bryant WR
Rd15- Montario Hardesty RB
Rd16- Steve Breaston WR
Rd17- Baltimore DEF
Rd18- Jason Campbell QB
Rd19- Julian Edelman WR
Rd20- Lawrence Tynes K

#20 evildeadjedi

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Posted 24 August 2010 - 05:27 PM

I like both of these teams, although I've never played IDP, so I'm not sure how to rate those picks. I have a feeling that Malcolm Floyd in the 14th for RAMSTORIA, and Justin Forsett in the 14th for evildeadjedi are going to turn out to be huge steals.


This is the first league I have ever played IDP as well so it should be interesting. I hope so I had a horrible time with RB's last year.
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#21 evildeadjedi

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Posted 24 August 2010 - 05:32 PM

Did my yearly draft with friends again on sunday.. I HATE having so many players (2 Qbs, 3 RB. 3 WR, WR/RB, WR/TE, TE, DEF, K) ..They wanted to keep it the same as last yr (which was default by accident..will change next year regardless) I will shrink this down to 15 or so picks next year. My RBs are strong(and alot of depth), WRs decent, TE and DEF good, and My QBs not so great. What does everyone think my chances are?

Rd1- Ray Rice RB
Rd2- Ryan Matthews RB
Rd3- Shonn Greene RB
Rd4- (realizing ALL top QB's are gone) Brett Favre QB
Rd5- Steve Smith (CAR) WR
Rd6- Chad Ochocinco WR
Rd7- Eli Manning (I Know) QB
Rd8- Marion Barber RB
Rd9- Brent Celek TE
Rd10- Tj Houshmandzadeh WR
Rd11- Cj Spiller RB
Rd12- Arian Foster RB
Rd13- Derrick Mason WR
Rd14- Dez Bryant WR
Rd15- Montario Hardesty RB
Rd16- Steve Breaston WR
Rd17- Baltimore DEF
Rd18- Jason Campbell QB
Rd19- Julian Edelman WR
Rd20- Lawrence Tynes K


Depends largely on match-ups and how healthy Farve and Eli stay. Very nice stable of running backs especially if they all stay healthy. The WR are decent and Housh and Smith could make some noise this year. Mason is all right and Breaston is an all or nothing guy not very consistent. If Dez Bryant pans out you could have a steal on that pick.
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#22 RAMSTORIA

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Posted 24 August 2010 - 05:32 PM

This is the first league I have ever play IDP in as well so it should be interesting. I hope so I had a horrible time with RB's last year.


we (my main league, same 9 or 10 guys every year) started doing IDP 4 years ago and have loved it. adds another dimension to fantasy. and its that much better when your IPD players make the difference in your game. depending on your scoring your IDP players will be right up there with your starters in scoring. patrick willis went a few picks before i got jared allen (was pretty upset about that), but the kid is a beast, he would almost always score more than 10 points in a game. more than i can say for my #2 RB, WR, & TE would do.

Did my yearly draft with friends again on sunday.. I HATE having so many players (2 Qbs, 3 RB. 3 WR, WR/RB, WR/TE, TE, DEF, K) ..They wanted to keep it the same as last yr (which was default by accident..will change next year regardless) I will shrink this down to 15 or so picks next year. My RBs are strong(and alot of depth), WRs decent, TE and DEF good, and My QBs not so great. What does everyone think my chances are?


how many people are in your league?

Edited by RAMSTORIA, 24 August 2010 - 05:54 PM.

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#23 icp_00_111

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Posted 24 August 2010 - 05:52 PM

btw guys, you probably already know, but take Sidney Rice and move him way down your board, he is having hip surgery and supposed to miss a pretty large amount of time.

#24 tiddled06

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Posted 24 August 2010 - 07:16 PM

we (my main league, same 9 or 10 guys every year) started doing idp 4 years ago and have loved it. Adds another dimension to fantasy. And its that much better when your ipd players make the difference in your game. Depending on your scoring your idp players will be right up there with your starters in scoring. Patrick willis went a few picks before i got jared allen (was pretty upset about that), but the kid is a beast, he would almost always score more than 10 points in a game. More than i can say for my #2 rb, wr, & te would do.



How many people are in your league?



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#25 gbpackers94

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Posted 24 August 2010 - 07:28 PM

btw guys, you probably already know, but take Sidney Rice and move him way down your board, he is having hip surgery and supposed to miss a pretty large amount of time.

Of course he was my number 1 WR. I hope Pierre Garcon and Donald Driver can fill in for him.
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#26 chimpster1313

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Posted 24 August 2010 - 07:31 PM

Of course he was my number 1 WR. I hope Pierre Garcon and Donald Driver can fill in for him.


In short..........no.
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#27 gbpackers94

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Posted 24 August 2010 - 07:44 PM

In short..........no.

I figured, but I picked up a ton of scrub wrs because I didn't trust Sidney.
My team:
QB- Tom Brady
RB- Michael Turner
RB- Ray Rice
RB/WR- Ryan Matthews
WR- Donald Driver
WR- Pierre Garcon
TE- Jermichael Finley
OP- Chad Henne
D/ST- Packers
K- Rob Bironas
BN- Michael Bush (RB)
BN- Josh Morgan (WR)
BN- Bengals (D/ST)
BN- Golden Tate (WR)
BN- Dustin Keller (TE)
BN- Mike Thomas (WR)
BN- Legedu Naanee (WR)
BN- Jonathan Dwyer (RB)
BN- Matt Lienart (QB)
BN- Devin Thomas (WR)
IR- Sidney Rice (WR)
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#28 klwillis45

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Posted 24 August 2010 - 07:50 PM

^^That is one beastly RB corps.
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#29 gbpackers94

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Posted 24 August 2010 - 07:52 PM

^^That is one beastly RB corps.

Yeah but the wrs are less than stellar.

#30 icp_00_111

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Posted 24 August 2010 - 07:55 PM

thats good, btw nice Rice/Turner combo, here is a list of my team.

QB-Matt Schaub
WR-Calvin Johnson
WR-Brandon Marshall
WR-Jeremy Maclin
RB-Maurice Jones-Drew
RB-Jonathan Stewart
TE-John Carlson
K-Robbie Gould
DEF-Chicago
BN-Ronnie Brown
BN-Kevin Kolb
BN-Dez Bryant
BN-Marion Barber
BN-Lee Evans
BN-Darren McFadden