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CAGcast #222: The Perfect Stranger


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#31 RichMeisterMan

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Posted 10 December 2010 - 10:26 PM

About your guys' battlefield talk...

I think EA/DICE is doing a great job at keeping Bad Company 2 relevant. They release the new VIP map pack which was easily the best pack to date by giving us 2 brand new maps and 2 fan favorites from the 1st game. They do this to restimulate the interest of people that already own BFBC2, this way they are ready to shell out the dough for Vietnam when it comes out.

Now they attach Vietnam to the original BFBC2 to essentially sell more of the base game; which I am sure is obvious to a lot of you, by advertising for Vietnam and people will make the jump to BFBC2 to play it.

If you haven't played Battle Field Bad Company 2 there is not a better time to start things up than right now. The game is cheap on PC and consoles, you get a wealth of maps, and a new expansion is right around the corner! The expansion is very fairly priced in my opinion too.

#32 apathylad

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Posted 10 December 2010 - 10:26 PM

I feel bad that Wombat can do a better Yogi Bear impression than Dan Aykroyd can.

Anyway, I feel that the reason a lot of games don't sell well are for marketing reasons. People like to point at Metacritic scores, but it's not like gamers are gonna buy every single game that gets a positive review.

Shipwreck was right about 2010 being the year the 360 had the better exclusives (or at least the better selling exclusives). That may have also been a factor of why the 360 sold more than the PS3.

Good show.

#33 jkanownik

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Posted 10 December 2010 - 10:27 PM

geez you all can be fucking morons sometimes.....well alot of the time. as far as xbox sales go what percent of those are people replacing consoles that have died on them? thats always been one of the major reasons i laugh at people gushing over xbox console sales they never factor in the new sales that are for current customers replacing dead consoles. and yeah some of the ps3 sales are too just not as many.


Where do consoles go when they die? Think about that and come back. I'm too tired to continue the discussion at the moment. I can tell you that the end result is that you're wrong.

theres alot of Fucking retards out there


Tru dat.

im sure people are now picking up consoles because of kinect and move but how many would be interesting to know.



Pachter released the console bundle numbers. ~700K Kinect Bundles and ~150K Sony Move Bundles.
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#34 SeanNOLA

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Posted 10 December 2010 - 10:58 PM

RE: Kinect Sales - it seems like a lot of people are buying Kinects for non-gaming purposes. My office bought 3 to use for gesture presentation and projector-control stuff. I doubt we'll be buying Dance Central any time soon. I agree with Wombat that the software sales are not going to match the hardware sales.

RE: EA and online games - from a profit standpoint, what EA is doing makes sense. "Is there really room for an online Dead Space/Bioshock?" There probably isn't, but an online component gives incentive for consumers to buy early, before the online component dries up. A lot of single-player-only titles, like Vanquish and Enslaved, end up selling poorly out of the gate, because consumers know that it will be the same game a few months from now when it's selling for $40. An FPS, however, will change dramatically - either the multiplayer arena has become a ghost town, or the day-one purchasers have gained a significant advantage, based on their months of experience.

Resident Evil 5 is a good example: If you bought it at launch, you might have been able to take advantage of online multiplayer, but if you waited for the price to drop to $20, you entered a ghost town. In the end, you're forced to ask yourself "is the online component worth that $40?" and if the answer is "yes," then you'll pay the $60 up front.

#35 Curufinwe

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Posted 10 December 2010 - 11:23 PM

Download worked fine for me.

My favorite part of the podcast was when Cheapy said "?�Qx&@7��x��~�׾���������w y[~�?�s���YVL�t��L��V�H���"u@E ���Q��+ ��Wt����K�C/��rK��4Y��*�gx'��.�b֞�Տ�.��m�����5����25�M~S/�����U�M���O�����G|9�o�?�o����
���:g���Z���������itP�FO�]�/ҟx��үM�ٮF��7�� �����td@�n�U/5�*"UGu(a5;�Z_�ݏ���p�0-�r�\���CF��Djb���C4��r�H_;dxi V�D���ń�$�%*R�{xwꗫq��Ic��P�ƴC'��VQ�;���>.����p�?C|��+k��{Է�'$~/����UM�}�ޡZ�3zVo������1�
�S��>�|��K麂�{��g�������A�o��=��ՠ��z�P������f_�e���������d����2���<��.�0��hK��D��<��&��ٱQ��(+*B�I��!��q���="�7���:�� �7(�cm+�V���C1���N�|@pm� 5�b !����G��U��g�;��t�C)Ӧ*L�S�r�="/]�jj���`�����o��C�N��.t�h�vR}5\7<,�����Ƿj܉!�af�vЛ� �5x�t[=u�8]��00GO�q�kcw-�tNۼM܊������?S�-���/'1��������8�a/�"%�vҺƖN�����jX���U��e�R�l,'����q�V��i�0��O�����G��!E$�.Ep)�
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�t��PY.P���C��~���O[��յ{�b�+�q'�&�V՞���;9�[~3�}>�<��Vй�_�ɺE�$��G
Β�ۦ�%J��`��;{4S�;��R�#7S�pƴڂ�y$���a����lm�������/��������+�wB+sG��w�#���X�?����8~�{�u�t���p�6z5�oo�;ܤjK��Y6����K��)薫�����t���doR�����b_�}��^��CԽ��z/���d����z����0��A��f�_D������nk��~&�u���G�@YH�n�?m[���)��Y���C�r��/Ͽ
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I can't beleive Cheapy would tell such a racist joke, but it was pretty funny, Especially the part about the ~�k���z_�~�����~���B�u��!��>�.

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#36 Curufinwe

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Posted 10 December 2010 - 11:36 PM

geez you all can be fucking morons sometimes.....well alot of the time. as far as xbox sales go what percent of those are people replacing consoles that have died on them? thats always been one of the major reasons i laugh at people gushing over xbox console sales they never factor in the new sales that are for current customers replacing dead consoles.


If that was such a big factor then then the 360 wouldn't have the best attach rate out of all the consoles. A high attach rate means people buying new 360s are buying games with them. If people were just replacing dead 360s, they would not be buying games with them, so you would see a low attach rate.

The moron here is you.

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#37 LiK

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Posted 11 December 2010 - 12:13 AM

I agree with Cheapy and Wombat. Shippy, get going and buy the 360 versions so we can play together!
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#38 pvx22

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Posted 11 December 2010 - 01:19 AM

What was the name of that company that made the chocolate covered potato chips?
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#39 hufferstl

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Posted 11 December 2010 - 01:29 AM

Wombat loves the phrase 'mindshare'.

#40 koheed

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Posted 11 December 2010 - 01:35 AM

Cheapy, did you have any of the Red Hot Better Made chips? Those chips, along with NES and Mt. Dew, helped to contribute to my mild childhood obesity.

#41 lokizz

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Posted 11 December 2010 - 04:00 AM

If that was such a big factor then then the 360 wouldn't have the best attach rate out of all the consoles. A high attach rate means people buying new 360s are buying games with them. If people were just replacing dead 360s, they would not be buying games with them, so you would see a low attach rate.

The moron here is you.


says the guy from deleware. seriously who the Fuck are you ?

#42 Knoell

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Posted 11 December 2010 - 04:47 AM

says the guy from deleware. seriously who the Fuck are you ?


Great argument.

Anyways about the 2.5 million kinect sales, if the pachter numbers are correct is there something to say about the console bundle sales that equal just 750K while kinect sales have reached 2.5 million all together?

It seems that more people are buying kinect when they already have a console. I thought that was interesting because unless those people buy kinect games, then microsoft doesn't really gain anything beyond the initial kinect profit.

At least with the bundle sales, they are gaining potential customers to open their entire library to.

#43 trip1eX

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Posted 11 December 2010 - 04:47 AM

Kinect is going to bomb. Wait until next summer.

And it will finally look like the junk that it is.

Wait untli Kinects start crapping out too. I'm not assigning a long lifespan to those moving cameras. It feels like a junk-a-thon.

Don't shoot the messenger now. I'm just chanelling this.

The 360 isn't selling better because of Kinect either. Kinect is not moving 360s. It's not bringing many new consumers into the fold. The November boost is similar to the boost the 360 recieved the previous months since its revision.

It's the revision that is moving 360s further spurred along by Halo and then CoD:BO which is not quite as bad as CDs:BO if you can decode that last acronym. ;)

#44 Knoell

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Posted 11 December 2010 - 05:18 AM

They (assuming pachters numbers are correct) sold 750K Xbox 360 Console Kinect bundles last month, I think that is a clear indication the Kinect IS moving consoles....

Just because it isn't your type of game doesn't mean it can't be popular. I have a Wii and hardly ever play it, I found out motion control, and those type games are not for me, but it is clearly popular and sells very well.

#45 PacManster17

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Posted 11 December 2010 - 05:52 AM

Listening. Liked the online multiplayer discussion. It doesn't need to be tacked on to every game!
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#46 Dr Mario Kart

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Posted 11 December 2010 - 11:57 AM

On the subject of development costs talk:

We are raising dev costs 2-3x+ every hardware cycle, while the userbase grows at a much slower (non-exponential) rate. This is clearly unsustainable. Right now the industry is running from math. Even with the additional monies currently being extracted from consumers per game, the vast majority of games are losing a larger and larger amount of money. 2008 was the highest year for revenue on record in the industry, and 2009 was the second highest. Despite this, companies are/were going under left and right and others were deep into the red.

There are only two solutions:
1) lower costs, by going small/low power, possibly digital.
2) dramatically grow the gaming population until these obscene costs can be justified.
__________
On attach rates:
I've come to believe that attach rates are relatively unimportant (at least in the current generation).

If you take the lifetime hardware sold (from NPD) and use that to calculate weeks ownership (depending on which month it was sold), and take lifetime software sales numbers (whenever they happen to be available), you find that console owners buy the same number of games per unit time in the long term.

For example, as of Sept 09 NPD:

TOTAL hardware ownership in weeks
X360: 1.58 billion
Wii: 1.54 billion
PS3: 0.64 billion

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X360: 0.091 games per week
Wii: 0.091 games per week
PS3: 0.092 games per week

In the short term, this trend is distorted slightly by events like new system launches, slim redesigns/price drops, etc.
__________
On Kinect/Move sales and implications:

How many Kinects/Moves are sold is irrelevant because they wont get significant support - This is how non-standard peripherals work. There are nearly the same amount of Wii Balance Boards sold as there are PS3s, but you dont see support for it. Similar situation with Motion+.

Edited by Dr Mario Kart, 11 December 2010 - 12:17 PM.


#47 turkeycat79

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Posted 11 December 2010 - 12:50 PM

Can't wait to listen!!!

side note: the download link only worked with firefox for me. With IE it downloaded a bad jpeg file for unknown reason???

#48 indieinsd

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Posted 11 December 2010 - 04:55 PM

With the exception of Little Big Planet 2... not really impressed with what the old PS3 is going to offer in 2011. But, it's still a pretty good Blu-Ray player.

The point is that the PS3 will be getting all the big games next year except project shit box games and Gears of War.

#49 Curufinwe

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Posted 11 December 2010 - 05:38 PM

says the guy from deleware. seriously who the Fuck are you ?


I'm the guy who's much less ignorant than you. Try doing some research before you call the hosts of this podcast morons, and maybe you won't make a fool of yourself in the next CAGcast thread.

From the GAF NPD thread:

The 360 has a great tie ratio. A really great tie ratio. Better than the PS3 or the Wii. Tie ratio is the number of pieces of software sold for each piece of hardware, and the 360's are top shelf both month-to-month and lifetime. This means that if a higher percentage of 360 buyers are repeat owners, we'd either expect the tie ratio to be lower (because someone who buys a second 360 doesn't also rebuy their whole library) or we'd say that it is artificially low, and the 360's actual active owner : software tie ratio is enormous, dwarving everything else ever made by a significant amount.

It seems likely that 360 owners buy a lot of software and unlikely that that they buy a totally mindboggling amount of software, so we have to assume that the repeat buyers are about normal.

One of the reasons here is that most people who rebuy a console trade their old one or sell it and then the person that buys that buys software. So most of your repeat buyers were also driving used sales and thus driving the install base, even if you didn't know they were.

Now, I'm not equating the 360's failure rate to any other console. In fact, let's pretend we're not talking about the 360 at all. Let's talk about the PS2. And now let's pretend no one's PS2 ever broke. Ever. Right? Still, a lot of those people replaced their fat PS2s with slim PS2s (or bought a second one and kept both), right? Sounds fair.

But in spite of this, we don't think of the PS2 as not "earning" all its sales, or of having a lower "actual" ownership number than the sales represent or any other claim like that. We basically accept that whatever the percentage of people who own two or break one and buy a new one or are otherwise rebuyers or upgrade or look for new colours or buy holiday bundles for collectors sake or whatever, it's not something that we actually worry about. We count the sales as honest and act as though the install base is the install base.


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#50 gokieks

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Posted 11 December 2010 - 08:23 PM

Cheapy: There actually is a demo to Auditorium, both as a flash game and as an iOS game (free with paid DLC levels). I'm honestly quite surprised none of you knew of this game.

#51 CozmoKhan

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Posted 11 December 2010 - 09:05 PM

While reading this thread, I was listening to one of my kids play Crash Course. Based on his reactions, I say it's a game he loves to hate. I'm surprised he didn't bust a controller in two.

I chipped in $10, so I hope we hit your milestone, Cheapy. I want my podcast for next week. I hope at least one of you sees TRON. I would like a fully-formed opinion, not a brushoff like we've been getting.

Keep up the great work as always. A week without a CAGCast is just a week.

#52 lowgear26

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Posted 12 December 2010 - 03:29 AM

geez you all can be fucking morons sometimes.....well alot of the time. as far as xbox sales go what percent of those are people replacing consoles that have died on them? thats always been one of the major reasons i laugh at people gushing over xbox console sales they never factor in the new sales that are for current customers replacing dead consoles. and yeah some of the ps3 sales are too just not as many.


If they were indeed replacing their BROKEN consoles then why buy another 360? I run 2 of my 360's as media extenders and they are both over 2 years old and are still going strong.

I think the RROD issue is not relevant here.......based on personal observations only
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#53 eastx

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Posted 12 December 2010 - 11:24 AM

Thanks for remembering my Bomberman love! I really enjoyed the 'cast. BTW, there are only two Bomberman XBLA games. You guys might have mistaken the PSN title, Bomberman Ultra (a port of Bomberman Live) as an XBLA game.

If you played the old Live game a lot, Battlefest really does have lots of new stuff that makes it better. The stages, especially, are way better, and the new bombs and modes add a lot of variety and fun. Plus it's only $10, unlike most XBLA games these days.

Edited by eastx, 12 December 2010 - 11:45 AM.


#54 Thomas96

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Posted 12 December 2010 - 05:50 PM

I think that Sony just wants a piece of the market, I don't think they're really concerns about trying to dominate anything. (sales wise). Sony isn't going to out sell the 360, because at this point, its not a matter of quality, its not a matter of "what sony can do better?" its a matter of consumer choice.. for this gen people have chosen to purchase primarily on the 360.

One of the reason's that Xbox sold so good during November is due to two exclusives that they had on their system... Kinect and COD: Black Ops. (YES I KNOW BLOPS is Multiplatform) but that game is so popular for Xbox that its really more like an xbox exclusive more so than a multiplatform title.
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#55 Wolfkin

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Posted 12 December 2010 - 11:32 PM

If they were indeed replacing their BROKEN consoles then why buy another 360? I run 2 of my 360's as media extenders and they are both over 2 years old and are still going strong.

I think the RROD issue is not relevant here.......based on personal observations only

ok i agree at this time the RROD has got to be a non-issue. there's no way it's still happening right?

but as to why you would rebuy a 360? are you kidding? we're on year 3? 4? how many games do you have? do you really want to buy them all over for the PS3 just because your 360 died?
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#56 Wolfkin

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Posted 12 December 2010 - 11:57 PM

Everyone thinks the Kinect is going to be a success because it sold well. What about the Wii effect. The Wii when it was released brought new technology that did things no other console could do before it. The Wii was an entire console from a major company that introduced a brand new concept.

Compare this to Kinect. Sure the tech is stronger but it's not nearly as unexpected. The Wii cracked your brain with it's newness. Kinect is just EyeToy2099. How many people bought the Wii thinking that as soon as the launch period was over we'd get totally wicked awesome games that did creative and fun things with motion? How many people sold their Wii waiting? Why shouldn't I look at the Kinect and simply label it as the same phenom
Spoiler
. A lot of people buy it thinking we'll get good games. But in a year if they aren't coming with extreme regularity (Wii had good games.. just pretty far apart) how many Kinect owners will get tired of sifting thru eyetoy clones and WiiSport wannabes and just end up selling the 'add-on'. People saw the wii and thought "Real lightsabre action". People see the Kinect and think "Real Minority Report Action". With headtracking we got some pretty cool effect, with Motion+ on top the Wii is pretty darn capable but I'm seeing less than 25 Motion+ games which include at least 2 games I know aren't out. 4 sports games which are hardly where you go for innovation.

I'm not saying that here's clear proof that Kinect will fail. What I am saying is that we have absolutely zero reason to expect it to succeed. Nothing is happening here that didn't happen with the Wii, and Nintendo committed to the Wii much harder than Microsoft commits to the Kinect. If Kinect fails like HD-DVD you still have an awesome gaming console to fall back on. As far as the new market goes. They all have Wiis and I don't see Kinect as so attractive to draw them away. The closest thing really are the WiiDads that CheapyD outlined. Wanna be gamers who got the Wii wife-approved and think they can use Kinect to get a 360 wife-approved.

Will we consider the Kinect a huge success if it performs like the Wii? That is it sells like gangbusters and 90% of it's audience just plays kinectimals, and CheapyD puts his in the closet never to be heard from until Saint's Row 4.

Not everyone needs to look like a 16 year old girl cosplaying a 16 year old boy, every-Japanese-artist-ever.

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#57 Cao Cao

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Posted 13 December 2010 - 12:43 AM

I think that Sony just wants a piece of the market, I don't think they're really concerns about trying to dominate anything. (sales wise). Sony isn't going to out sell the 360, because at this point, its not a matter of quality, its not a matter of "what sony can do better?" its a matter of consumer choice.. for this gen people have chosen to purchase primarily on the 360.

One of the reason's that Xbox sold so good during November is due to two exclusives that they had on their system... Kinect and COD: Black Ops. (YES I KNOW BLOPS is Multiplatform) but that game is so popular for Xbox that its really more like an xbox exclusive more so than a multiplatform title.


While anything Call of Duty would likely move some 360s, it is important to note that it sold better on PS3 than past installments have. The PS3 share for Modern Warfare 2's first month was around 30% (4.20m 360, 1.89m PS3). BlOps PS3 had a somewhat higher share of the first month sales at 38.75% (4.90m 360, 3.10m PS3). Unfortunately, this increased share did not appear to give PS3 hardware sales a significant boost.

Kinect, I won't argue with as a driver, as Pachter estimates that about half of the 360 hardware sales were the Kinect bundle (~695k), while the PS3/Move bundle only made up a fifth of the PS3 hardware sales (~106k).

#58 Wolfkin

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Posted 13 December 2010 - 01:43 AM

One of the reason's that Xbox sold so good during November is due to two exclusives that they had on their system... Kinect and COD: Black Ops. (YES I KNOW BLOPS is Multiplatform) but that game is so popular for Xbox that its really more like an xbox exclusive more so than a multiplatform title.

nope. don't buy it. You can only use the "It's practically exclusive" argument if say it performed better on the 360 like say Ghostbusters. It's perfectly adequate and popular on the PS3 as well. 360s sold because of COD:BO. Fine. That's believable. 360s sold because of some sort of perceived exclusivity that COD:BO isn't on the PS3? Nah.

Not everyone needs to look like a 16 year old girl cosplaying a 16 year old boy, every-Japanese-artist-ever.

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#59 Curufinwe

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Posted 13 December 2010 - 03:46 AM

Two weeks in a row pronouncing Majin as may-jin? We're counting on you to teach us the correct pronunciation of Japanese words, Cheapy. :)

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#60 sdp

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Posted 13 December 2010 - 05:03 PM

I like how cheapy acts like he has nothing to gain from following videogamedeals, 25 cents isn't much per follower to donate when you count each follower is likely to click on various of his referral amazon links which he gets a cut off. Plenty people donate a lot more for followers without having referral links in their tweets. I mean its a smart move, I just think its a bit hypocritical for cheapy to act like its all for charity and he has absolutely nothing to gain from it. Oh and Tai can't become president either cheapy, you were wrong with that as well; I'm sure your dreams of Tai becoming a President are now crushed as it was all you wished for him to achieve in your plan for world domination.