[quote name='Feeding the Abscess']Davis didn't have microfracture surgery, and he put that season up as a 23 year old rookie.[/quote]
True. This is what I saw: "New York Mets' Ike Davis done for year; microfracture surgery - ESPN"
[quote]AGon is on the wrong side of 30, he had shoulder surgery in 2010, his power has fallen from excellent to good to acceptable, and his walk rate has fallen from one of the best in the game to below average. This is a multiyear trend for AGon, and at 30+ that's not a good sign.[/quote]
Sure. They do that at 30. It doesn't really matter if there's an injury or not, you're going to see declines once they hit 30+. I think we can all agree with that.
But in the next breath we AREN'T talking about how Votto's quarter billion contract carries him until he's 40. That's my bitch about Votto's contract, along with a knee that will be a decade older.
[quote]Middling power? Davis has a .223 ISO in a year that was historically awful for two months[/quote]
Which doesn't count because we don't want it to (also coming off an injury, do those affect performance maybe?). So from here forward we'll pretend it doesn't exist...But it's ok because his sample size is so many yea... wait, one year? Srsly?
[quote]and put up a .176 ISO as a 23 year old rookie. AGon had a .196 ISO in his 24 year old rookie season, and in his age 25 season had a .220 ISO. AGon's had two seasons that beat Davis' 2012 ISO, and those were his age 26 and 27 seasons. Davis plays 1B, speed isn't an issue.[/quote]
And a one and a two and a:
wRC+ under 100.
WAR under 1.
Walks multiyear trending down, strikeouts multiyear trending up (we didn't think it was all rosy with the big swingin right?)
WPA of 0.49
Zips projects lower ISO going forward (although still nice)
And on and on.
So what I see is a guy with zero sample size being pimped because his BABIP is low and his ISO is high. Oh, and he had a real good year... two years ago. It was his only good year.
The world is full of those guys.
[quote]Add 70 points to Davis' BABIP, which his 22% LD rate and 2010 BABIP of .321 suggests is reasonable, and he'd be hitting .272 with a .340 OBP.[/quote]
Um, no. We don't give credit to guys with 1 good year until their belt. Especially when Zips projects under .240 going forward.
[quote]I haven't knocked the Dodgers' acquisition of AGon. It's a great move for them. Even if his 2012 is the new norm for him, it's a massive upgrade over Loney. That said, you were the one who suggested a trade between AGon and Davis, and in such a trade, the team trading AGon would get more pieces than just Davis in return. Greinke was a hypothetical signing based on the hypothetical team's need and the money saved in the deal. You can replace his name with ________ if you'd like.[/quote]
I don't think there's any question of any of that. That's why I'm not debating it. Anyone here question whether AGon is an upgrade from Loney?
[quote]Stanton had surgery to repair a torn meniscus. Figured I'd use an example in the same sport. Could have used David Ortiz, as well. Chris Paul had a similar injury, and his position and sport require quick and explosive movement in every direction. If basketball players can regularly return from meniscus injuries, surely a baseball player can too. If Votto's knee goes arthritic in a few years, a few doubles will turn into singles and he'll need to sit a few extra games. If AGon's shoulder goes arthritic in a few years he'll be out of baseball.[/quote]
My point on Votto isn't just that we need to see it to believe again, it's that you're getting it for the next thousand years. And a quarter bil. If that doesn't knock him down a tier, I don't know what does anymore.
[quote]No, because as your bref link shows, they're comparable through age 24 in their careers. We aren't comparing AGon from 27 to Ike Davis now. We're comparing a 30+ year old AGon on the downside of his career with a player on the upswing of his.[/quote]
Again, a player that may or may not figure it out before his contract year. We don't know.
[quote]I'm sure Davis is crushed that his early career comps with a guy who hit 56 HR in his first two big league seasons and walked more than he struck out (Wally Joyner).[/quote]
And yet we don't have to worry about Ike Davis being confused with someone that walks more than they strike out or strikes out at a less than 2:1 ratio or a guy whose trending less strikeouts and trending more walks.
And big whiff on the 50 homers in his 1st two seasons.
So there's that. I guess he isn't Wally Joyner?
[quote]Should also mention that Davis' 2012 ISO of .223 is better than AGon's marks since 2009, which was 3 years and a shoulder surgery ago. Moving forward, I'm not putting my money on a guy whose body type ages poorly and is on the wrong side of 30 to hit like he did when he was 26 and 27. I am putting money on a 25 year old improving as he enters his prime.[/quote]
He hits it hard. Turns out that's not all there is to this game though. The dustbin of baseball history is littered with high ISO guys .220 hitters.
[quote]Was the trade a great move for the Dodgers? Yes. Is 2012 AGon a good player? Yes, and if he bounces back to 2010 levels he'll be great. Is he the best 1B in the game? No, and he's also not a tier 1 guy unless both his walk rate and power bounce back.[/QUOTE]
I was wrong to call him tier 1. Cabrera is clearly that guy. But if we're counting contracts and you look at Votto, Pujols, and Fielder (I'm forgetting someone) and you see a huge value difference between them and 5 years signed AGon, well, I disagree man.
Edited by speedracer, 27 August 2012 - 01:09 PM.