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2012 MLB Discussion


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#481 Feeding the Abscess

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 08:47 PM

Yea, I was wrong. It was a meniscus tear. Also, Votta has missed 50 games this year. But hey, at least his OBP was high when he played.

So your argument here is what? Small sample size means I can make Ike Davis look better than AGon? If you're a GM offering me AGon for Ike Davis, I'll take that offer dude. And you wouldn't have your job the next day.

I guess it depends on the value you put on a guy that's coming off an injury that causes two surgeries and over a month missed. Everyone seems ready to value Votto coming back with no loss of value whatsoever and no continuing threat going forward. To me, that's unequivocally crazy. He plays his way back into that high value, he doesn't get it by virtue of a high SLG during the 80 games he played.

My argument is not that AGon is better. My argument is not that Votto is done or even that he plays at a lower level. My argument is that one of these guys just had surgery twice after an injury and then reinjury during light workouts. The other is having a .300BA down year on a team famously underperforming. Votto is tier 1 and AGon tier 2 if Votto isn't hurt. But he is. And it happened twice on the same knee. And he has a 12 year contract on that knee. Until I see it, I'd say they're both tier 2.


You said AGon is arguably the best 1B in baseball, it's simply not true, and I provided comps to prove it. Davis matched AGon's 2012 production as a 23 year old in 2010, his performance pre-June is the aberration in his career. I'll take the younger player with a similar batted ball profile and better plate discipline who is under team control for another 3 seasons over the guy with $180 million left on his contract. I'd probably get another major league ready pitcher and minor leaguer or two in return as well, and use the money I saved to sign Greinke while keeping my job.

Just wanted you to know that while you're harping on Votto's knee, AGon had shoulder surgery a couple years ago. For power hitters, shoulder surgery is a much more serious concern than a minor knee injury. See: Giancarlo Stanton

tl;dr AGon's a massive upgrade over Loney (I'd rather have Victorino over Crawford, but whatevs), but your Dodger homerism is clouding your judgment.

Edited by Feeding the Abscess, 26 August 2012 - 09:04 PM.

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#482 Icegaryen

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 09:36 PM

Would you really rather have Pujols and his contract than Gonzalez and his? Not even close. Mr. .283 ain't what he used to be. Votto's had 2 surgeries on the same knee and is only 2 years younger than Gonzalez. Oh, and that's a 12 year contract on Votto. Can't wait to see how valuable he is when you're paying him $25m when he's 40. Cabrera sure. But there's no fuckin way you can point to Votto and Pujols as guys clearly a tier above Adrian Gonzalez. That's crazy talk. Votto might end up that way but it's no sure thing and that's the kind of contract the Dodgers would have to lay out.

So would you rather have Votto until he's eligible for Social Security or would you rather have Beckett for a year, Gonzalez for 5 and losing him at age 36 (which is lovely), and Crawford's who-the-hell-knows upcoming seasons? They're the same amount of money. To me it's easy to say Votto but if his knees go to shit and you're staring down the barrel of his 37-40 years and $100m, it'll get a little more difficult.


At this current point, Carbera, Pujols and Votto are better players than Gonzalez. Look at the stats. It's crazy to say that Gonzo is a better player. It's also kind of crazy to factor contracts into evaluations of players' performance. Sure, down the road Votto may be released at the age of 38. But as of right now he has a 4.8 fWAR in only 86 games. Based on his numbers he is a much better player than Gonzales right now

I'd rather have Votto with his contract over Gonzo/Beckett/Crawford. There is absolutely no proof nor indication that Crawford will ever be the player he was in Tampa. Gonzalez's power has been declining every year since he left the Padres which is very scary as he went from an extremely pitchers park to a hitter's paradise.

#483 Feeding the Abscess

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 09:38 PM

At this current point, Carbera, Pujols and Votto are better players than Gonzalez. Look at the stats. It's crazy to say that Gonzo is a better player. It's also kind of crazy to factor contracts into evaluations of players' performance. Sure, down the road Votto may be released at the age of 38. But as of right now he has a 4.8 fWAR in only 86 games. Based on his numbers he is a much better player than Gonzales right now

I'd rather have Votto with his contract over Gonzo/Beckett/Crawford. There is absolutely no proof nor indication that Crawford will ever be the player he was in Tampa. Gonzalez's power has been declining every year since he left the Padres which is very scary as he went from an extremely pitchers park to a hitter's paradise.


In AGon's defense, Fenway isn't much better for lefty HR than PETCO. His shoulder surgery is the cause for decline in power. Playing in Dodger Stadium will help his power a bit, believe it or not. It's slightly above average for left-handed HR.
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#484 Icegaryen

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 09:50 PM

In AGon's defense, Fenway isn't much better for lefty HR than PETCO. His shoulder surgery is the cause for decline in power. Playing in Dodger Stadium will help his power a bit, believe it or not. It's slightly above average for left-handed HR.


He's been much better at home than on the road this year. Last year he had better offensive numbers at home as well, but had higher HR (17 to 10) which resulted in a higher SLG. He still benefited from Fenway.

#485 Feeding the Abscess

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 09:57 PM

He's been much better at home than on the road this year. Last year he had better offensive numbers at home as well, but had higher HR (17 to 10) which resulted in a higher SLG. He still benefited from Fenway.



You actually have that backwards, he hit 17 HR on the road last season.

EDIT: Got tripped up on your sentence. Most hitters perform better with K/BB rates at home due to familiarity with the batting backdrop (among other factors). AGon didn't last season, but he did have a higher BABIP at home (probably due to the spacious RF and occasional hit off of the Monster).
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#486 Icegaryen

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 10:02 PM

So your argument here is what? Small sample size means I can make Ike Davis look better than AGon? If you're a GM offering me AGon for Ike Davis, I'll take that offer dude. And you wouldn't have your job the next day.


Trolling or just stupid?

If someone offers you Ike Davis, a 25 year old solid player who's stats are lower than his actual performance (.247 BABIP this year) who is cost controlled for 4 more years and will improve for a declining 1B who is owed a crapton of money until he is 36, you pull the trigger. Unless of course the 1B is the face of your franchise (which doesnt really apply to Boston, a team which often throws the faces of their franchise under the bus)

#487 GhostShark

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 10:21 PM

Texas rangers 2012 world series champs. MVP either gonna be Hamilton or Beltre. The doyers won't make it past the NLDS :)


I am a die-hard Ranger fan, and I did pick them to win the WS before the season started, but if you're referring the MVP on the regular season, then I have to disagree with you. Hamilton's numbers have declined (though still really good) and Beltre has superb numbers as well, but in comparison to someone like Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera, they'd finish third and beyond. Now granted, this only matters IF the Tigers and Angels make the postseason.
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#488 Icegaryen

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 10:27 PM

Texas rangers 2012 world series champs. MVP either gonna be Hamilton or Beltre. The doyers won't make it past the NLDS :)


Unless Trout falls of the face of the earth and Hamilton has a monster September, some heads are gonna roll if Josh wins the MVP. I'm not even gonna talk about Beltre. MVP should be awarded to the best player in baseball abd Trout has been much ebtter than Hamilton this year. Hell, if you really view the MVP award as the player's value in their pursuit of a pennant spot, Trout has carried the Angels, team with a below average line up. Hamilton is in a team that is built for a WS run.

#489 speedracer

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 10:27 PM

You said AGon is arguably the best 1B in baseball, it's simply not true, and I provided comps to prove it. Davis matched AGon's 2012 production as a 23 year old in 2010, his performance pre-June is the aberration in his career.

The baseline here being that Davis matched AGon's worst year out of the last seven. Oh, and you forgot about Ike's microfracture surgery that took him out of most of 2011.

Do injuries not count or something? Did I miss that class?

I'll take the younger player with a similar batted ball profile and better plate discipline who is under team control for another 3 seasons over the guy with $180 million left on his contract.

...who has proven himself for exactly 300 total games with a career .252 BA, zero speed, and middling power at best.

Sure guy. I mean yea. The peripherals look good .. I guess?

I'd probably get another major league ready pitcher and minor leaguer or two in return as well, and use the money I saved to sign Greinke while keeping my job.

Assuming the Dodgers' opportunity cost is not signing Greinke, which at this point looks 100% incorrect. When there's no end to the money, there's no opportunity cost at all.

Just wanted you to know that while you're harping on Votto's knee, AGon had shoulder surgery a couple years ago. For power hitters, shoulder surgery is a much more serious concern than a minor knee injury. See: Giancarlo Stanton

Well, Stanton settles it.

I have no idea why this seems so controversial, my position on Votto. Maybe because it's swung so far the other way that now you can't have a debate with a stats guy on something that can't be statistically quantified by fangraphs and therefore doesn't exist?

tl;dr AGon's a massive upgrade over Loney (I'd rather have Victorino over Crawford, but whatevs), but your Dodger homerism is clouding your judgment.

Saying that Votto needs to come back and prove he's still top tier without getting hurt is total homerism. Suggesting he and AGon are in the same tier UNTIL he proves it is total homerism. But comp-ing Ike Davis and AGon isn't over the top?

Trolling or just stupid?

Be a bigger douche because we disagree.

If someone offers you Ike Davis, a 25 year old solid player who's stats are lower than his actual performance (.247 BABIP this year) who is cost controlled for 4 more years and will improve for a declining 1B who is owed a crapton of money until he is 36, you pull the trigger. Unless of course the 1B is the face of your franchise (which doesnt really apply to Boston, a team which often throws the faces of their franchise under the bus)

Unless money means nothing to you. Then that whole line of thinking means nothing.

Also, yea. Ike Davis. The king of cherry picked stats to make a point. How's his WAR this year? Ah, there you go being unfair again speedracer. How's his oWAR and dWAR? OPS+? SLG? RAR?

None of that matters tho cause lol babip. your argument is invalid speedracer. 2nd half better than 1st = hall of fame

Somewhat humorously, Davis through 24 projects most similarly to Brad Fullmer, Wally Joyner.. and Adrian Gonzalez. Fullmer was a career .279 hitter with middling power and no speed. Joyner was the definition of "I mean sure, he's pretty good I guess"... and then there's AGon. So if we're worshiping at the alter of stats, his ceiling appears to be AGon.

Ceiling. I rest my case.

Edited by speedracer, 26 August 2012 - 10:43 PM.

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#490 Icegaryen

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 10:46 PM

Unless money means nothing to you. Then that whole line of thinking means nothing.


This is isn't MLB 2K12 when you can make your payroll unlimited. Gonzalez is a very good 1B but has been declining ever since he left San Diego. He is owed a crapton of money until he is 36. Davis is a 25 year old who is cost controlled for the next 4 years. I can only think of 5 or so hitters who are better than Davis and are 25 years old. And by the way...

Davis on the road this year
.261 .328 .569 with 17 HR

His BABIP has been in the mid 300 consistently while he was in the minors and its in the low 200s this year. Take him out of Citi field and watch him flourish

#491 speedracer

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 10:52 PM

This is isn't MLB 2K12 when you can make your payroll unlimited.

Says who?

Gonzalez is a very good 1B but has been declining ever since he left San Diego. He is owed a crapton of money until he is 36.

... though his best WAR year ever last year. Whoops!

Davis is a 25 year old who is cost controlled for the next 4 years. I can only think of 5 or so hitters who are better than Davis and are 25 years old. And by the way...

Who has proven absolutely nothing. Nothing.

Davis on the road this year
.261 .328 .569 with 17 HR

His BABIP has been in the mid 300 consistently while he was in the minors and its in the low 200s this year. Take him out of Citi field and watch him flourish

Well, his average babip in the minors means he'll work out, so I can see how you would stand tall on that. And yet he comps to middling forgettable 1Bs. Why do you think that is?
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#492 Icegaryen

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 11:07 PM

Says who?

... though his best WAR year ever last year. Whoops!


With a .380 BABIP which is way higher than his career norms. His WAR was also influenced by his 10.7 fldWAR. Which was only 1 the year before. And he had negative FLD a few years ago in Petco.

Who has proven absolutely nothing. Nothing.


Except for posting a 3.5 WAR on his age 22 season. What has Adrian done at 22?

Well, high babip minor leaguers always work out, so I can see how you would stand tall on that. And yet he comps to middling forgettable 1Bs. Why do you think that is?


He is a promising 1B who had a very good year at the age of 22. He is cost controlled for the next 4 years. His numbers are down due to playing in Citi field.

He is 25 years old

#493 Icegaryen

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 11:15 PM

No im talking about MVP of the world series, Hamilton has the best chance at reg. season MVP than any other ranger I think but doubtful


Most of the time World Series MVPs are not superstar players but players who had timely hits when it mattered. Look ta the last 3 WS MVPs; Freese, Renteria and Matsui.

Oh and I'm also predicting Swisher this year's WS MVP ;)

#494 speedracer

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 11:17 PM

With a .380 BABIP which is way higher than his career norms. His WAR was also influenced by his 10.7 fldWAR. Which was only 1 the year before.

Wow, only 1 the year before. What was it the year before that?

Except for posting a 3.5 WAR on his age 22 season. What has Adrian done at 22?

It was 3.1 and 2 is the edge between a starter and reserve. 5 is all star. He was solidly... a good rookie and nothing more.

He is a promising 1B who had a very good year at the age of 22.

Who blew his ankle and has looked positively pedestrian ever since. Oh, and has negative WAR this year.

He is cost controlled for the next 4 years. His numbers are down due to playing in Citi field.

He's a possible. He's by no means a golden ticket. The "other" guy is a lock for 3.5 on a bad year with 6.5 if he kills it.

And maybe Davis puts it all together the contract year and then what did the Mets get? 4 years of 13 WAR total and then the contract year of 6 WAR?

And then he walks out the door..
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#495 Icegaryen

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 11:28 PM

Wow, only 1 the year before. What was it the year before that?



5.8. Then -3.2 a year before that. Defensive stats are very flawed.$

It was 3.1 and 2 is the edge between a starter and reserve. 5 is all star. He was solidly... a good rookie and nothing more.

Who blew his ankle and has looked positively pedestrian ever since. Oh, and has negative WAR this year.

fWAR. Once again, bring up some 22 year old hitters in recent memory who have posted 3.5 fWARs while they were 22.




He's a possible. He's by no means a golden ticket. The "other" guy is a lock for 3.5 on a bad year with 6.5 if he kills it.

And maybe Davis puts it all together the contract year and then what did the Mets get? 4 years of 13 WAR total and then the contract year of 6 WAR?

And then he walks out the door..


so 5 years of 19 WAR for a fraction of what the Dodgers are paying Gonzalez? I'l take that any day.

#496 CaseyRyback

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 01:31 AM

Unless Trout falls of the face of the earth and Hamilton has a monster September, some heads are gonna roll if Josh wins the MVP. I'm not even gonna talk about Beltre. MVP should be awarded to the best player in baseball abd Trout has been much ebtter than Hamilton this year. Hell, if you really view the MVP award as the player's value in their pursuit of a pennant spot, Trout has carried the Angels, team with a below average line up. Hamilton is in a team that is built for a WS run.



Why? Did you see the first two months of the season? He had a shitty June and July but he is hot again and raking. If he continues to hit like he has been he could have a .300 average and 40 plus bombs and 140 plus rbi's.

Trout plays on a team with a ton of talent. Not denying his talent, but just pointing out he doesn't play on a scrub team either. They just are a team that plays like a bunch of scrubs or at least they have in August.

#497 speedracer

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 02:24 AM

5.8. Then -3.2 a year before that. Defensive stats are very flawed.$

All stats are flawed until we want to use them in a debate.

fWAR. Once again, bring up some 22 year old hitters in recent memory who have posted 3.5 fWARs while they were 22.

I named his comps. Who do you think he'll be more like, whats-his-name or Wally Joyner?

Here they are, the closest 10 players to him right now. With the exception of AGon, most of em are shit... well, certainly not the type of player you say Davis is. Yet the comps seem to wholly disagree. Strange that. There is Ortiz, but he's an admitted juicer and his is a tale of two careers.. I don't think we'll count him.

http://www.baseball-...mpage=24&age=24

Again, the irony that his ceiling appears to be AGon is.. weird. If I told you that you could have A or B, which would you want?

A. 6.7 WAR last year
B. Ceiling projects to A at best

so 5 years of 19 WAR for a fraction of what the Dodgers are paying Gonzalez? I'l take that any day.

Back to pretending money matters to the Dodgers. Wins right this second are all they care about. Right or wrong, $ per win means nothing to them and it's flawed to try to make that argument.

And Davis is arbitration eligible next year so let's stop pretending he's going to be a half mil per for the next 4 years. That's just utter bullshit.
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#498 Feeding the Abscess

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 08:47 AM

The baseline here being that Davis matched AGon's worst year out of the last seven. Oh, and you forgot about Ike's microfracture surgery that took him out of most of 2011.

Do injuries not count or something? Did I miss that class?


Davis didn't have microfracture surgery, and he put that season up as a 23 year old rookie. AGon is on the wrong side of 30, he had shoulder surgery in 2010, his power has fallen from excellent to good to acceptable, and his walk rate has fallen from one of the best in the game to below average. This is a multiyear trend for AGon, and at 30+ that's not a good sign.

...who has proven himself for exactly 300 total games with a career .252 BA, zero speed, and middling power at best.

Sure guy. I mean yea. The peripherals look good .. I guess?

Middling power? Davis has a .223 ISO in a year that was historically awful for two months, and put up a .176 ISO as a 23 year old rookie. AGon had a .196 ISO in his 24 year old rookie season, and in his age 25 season had a .220 ISO. AGon's had two seasons that beat Davis' 2012 ISO, and those were his age 26 and 27 seasons. Davis plays 1B, speed isn't an issue.

Add 70 points to Davis' BABIP, which his 22% LD rate and 2010 BABIP of .321 suggests is reasonable, and he'd be hitting .272 with a .340 OBP.

Assuming the Dodgers' opportunity cost is not signing Greinke, which at this point looks 100% incorrect. When there's no end to the money, there's no opportunity cost at all.

I haven't knocked the Dodgers' acquisition of AGon. It's a great move for them. Even if his 2012 is the new norm for him, it's a massive upgrade over Loney. That said, you were the one who suggested a trade between AGon and Davis, and in such a trade, the team trading AGon would get more pieces than just Davis in return. Greinke was a hypothetical signing based on the hypothetical team's need and the money saved in the deal. You can replace his name with ________ if you'd like.

Well, Stanton settles it.

I have no idea why this seems so controversial, my position on Votto. Maybe because it's swung so far the other way that now you can't have a debate with a stats guy on something that can't be statistically quantified by fangraphs and therefore doesn't exist?

Stanton had surgery to repair a torn meniscus. Figured I'd use an example in the same sport. Could have used David Ortiz, as well. Chris Paul had a similar injury, and his position and sport require quick and explosive movement in every direction. If basketball players can regularly return from meniscus injuries, surely a baseball player can too. If Votto's knee goes arthritic in a few years, a few doubles will turn into singles and he'll need to sit a few extra games. If AGon's shoulder goes arthritic in a few years he'll be out of baseball.

Saying that Votto needs to come back and prove he's still top tier without getting hurt is total homerism. Suggesting he and AGon are in the same tier UNTIL he proves it is total homerism.

Yes. http://www.fangraphs...ayers=4314,1908

But comp-ing Ike Davis and AGon isn't over the top?

No, because as your bref link shows, they're comparable through age 24 in their careers. We aren't comparing AGon from 27 to Ike Davis now. We're comparing a 30+ year old AGon on the downside of his career with a player on the upswing of his.

Somewhat humorously, Davis through 24 projects most similarly to Brad Fullmer, Wally Joyner.. and Adrian Gonzalez. Fullmer was a career .279 hitter with middling power and no speed. Joyner was the definition of "I mean sure, he's pretty good I guess"... and then there's AGon. So if we're worshiping at the alter of stats, his ceiling appears to be AGon.

Ceiling. I rest my case.

I'm sure Davis is crushed that his early career comps with a guy who hit 56 HR in his first two big league seasons and walked more than he struck out (Wally Joyner). Should also mention that Davis' 2012 ISO of .223 is better than AGon's marks since 2009, which was 3 years and a shoulder surgery ago. Moving forward, I'm not putting my money on a guy whose body type ages poorly and is on the wrong side of 30 to hit like he did when he was 26 and 27. I am putting money on a 25 year old improving as he enters his prime.

Was the trade a great move for the Dodgers? Yes. Is 2012 AGon a good player? Yes, and if he bounces back to 2010 levels he'll be great. Is he the best 1B in the game? No, and he's also not a tier 1 guy unless both his walk rate and power bounce back.

Edited by Feeding the Abscess, 27 August 2012 - 09:06 AM.

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#499 Icegaryen

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 12:45 PM

All stats are flawed until we want to use them in a debate.

I named his comps. Who do you think he'll be more like, whats-his-name or Wally Joyner?

Here they are, the closest 10 players to him right now. With the exception of AGon, most of em are shit... well, certainly not the type of player you say Davis is. Yet the comps seem to wholly disagree. Strange that. There is Ortiz, but he's an admitted juicer and his is a tale of two careers.. I don't think we'll count him.


Here's the problem though. If you are so inclined on going by WAR, Davis has the by far the highest WAR among those players.

http://www.baseball-...mpage=24&age=24

Again, the irony that his ceiling appears to be AGon is.. weird. If I told you that you could have A or B, which would you want?

A. 6.7 WAR last year
B. Ceiling projects to A at best


More like...

A. A very good player who is declining and is owed roughly 148 mill
B. Ceiling project to player A who will most likely earn as much as player A will earn in year, during his 4 next year.

I never said that Davis is a better player than Gonzalez. That would be fucking stupid. My point is that Gonzalez is a very good, but not tier player who is locked up in a bad contract and who's power numbers have been declining. Ike Davis is a promising player who is only 25 and had a 3.5 fWar year when he was 22. He is cost controlled for the next 4 years and is not owed 148 mill, and thus has more value than Gonzalez.

Back to pretending money matters to the Dodgers. Wins right this second are all they care about. Right or wrong, $ per win means nothing to them and it's flawed to try to make that argument.

And Davis is arbitration eligible next year so let's stop pretending he's going to be a half mil per for the next 4 years. That's just utter bullshit.


Who are you to say that money does not matter to the Dodgers? There is no such thing as an unlimited payroll. Dodgers are overpaying for underperforming players and it will kill them in a few years.

The Win-Now argument is just stupid. Is Becket really that much of an upgrade over Blanton or whoever the Dodgers will remove for m the rotation? Oh yeah Carl Crawford will definitely help them win now.

Colletti acquired a very good 1B who will help the Dodgers in the pennant race this year. That's the only move that will make deference this year for the Dodgers. And he also managed to give away 2 good arms in the process. God, he is one of the worst GMs in the game.

Look at the alternative. Battle it out this year. Doers have the pieces to contend. Sign Swisher, Hamilton and Grienke in the winter. I can bet you all the money I have in my PayPal that these 3 players will double the production of Crawford, Gonzalez and Beckett in 5 years. Oh yeah and the Dodgers would save money....

#500 speedracer

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 12:50 PM

[quote name='Feeding the Abscess']Davis didn't have microfracture surgery, and he put that season up as a 23 year old rookie.[/quote]
True. This is what I saw: "New York Mets' Ike Davis done for year; microfracture surgery - ESPN"
[quote]AGon is on the wrong side of 30, he had shoulder surgery in 2010, his power has fallen from excellent to good to acceptable, and his walk rate has fallen from one of the best in the game to below average. This is a multiyear trend for AGon, and at 30+ that's not a good sign.[/quote]
Sure. They do that at 30. It doesn't really matter if there's an injury or not, you're going to see declines once they hit 30+. I think we can all agree with that.

But in the next breath we AREN'T talking about how Votto's quarter billion contract carries him until he's 40. That's my bitch about Votto's contract, along with a knee that will be a decade older.
[quote]Middling power? Davis has a .223 ISO in a year that was historically awful for two months[/quote]
Which doesn't count because we don't want it to (also coming off an injury, do those affect performance maybe?). So from here forward we'll pretend it doesn't exist...But it's ok because his sample size is so many yea... wait, one year? Srsly?
[quote]and put up a .176 ISO as a 23 year old rookie. AGon had a .196 ISO in his 24 year old rookie season, and in his age 25 season had a .220 ISO. AGon's had two seasons that beat Davis' 2012 ISO, and those were his age 26 and 27 seasons. Davis plays 1B, speed isn't an issue.[/quote]
And a one and a two and a:

wRC+ under 100.
WAR under 1.
.223 BA
Walks multiyear trending down, strikeouts multiyear trending up (we didn't think it was all rosy with the big swingin right?)
WPA of 0.49
Zips projects lower ISO going forward (although still nice)

And on and on.

So what I see is a guy with zero sample size being pimped because his BABIP is low and his ISO is high. Oh, and he had a real good year... two years ago. It was his only good year.

The world is full of those guys.
[quote]Add 70 points to Davis' BABIP, which his 22% LD rate and 2010 BABIP of .321 suggests is reasonable, and he'd be hitting .272 with a .340 OBP.[/quote]
Um, no. We don't give credit to guys with 1 good year until their belt. Especially when Zips projects under .240 going forward.
[quote]I haven't knocked the Dodgers' acquisition of AGon. It's a great move for them. Even if his 2012 is the new norm for him, it's a massive upgrade over Loney. That said, you were the one who suggested a trade between AGon and Davis, and in such a trade, the team trading AGon would get more pieces than just Davis in return. Greinke was a hypothetical signing based on the hypothetical team's need and the money saved in the deal. You can replace his name with ________ if you'd like.[/quote]
I don't think there's any question of any of that. That's why I'm not debating it. Anyone here question whether AGon is an upgrade from Loney?
[quote]Stanton had surgery to repair a torn meniscus. Figured I'd use an example in the same sport. Could have used David Ortiz, as well. Chris Paul had a similar injury, and his position and sport require quick and explosive movement in every direction. If basketball players can regularly return from meniscus injuries, surely a baseball player can too. If Votto's knee goes arthritic in a few years, a few doubles will turn into singles and he'll need to sit a few extra games. If AGon's shoulder goes arthritic in a few years he'll be out of baseball.[/quote]
My point on Votto isn't just that we need to see it to believe again, it's that you're getting it for the next thousand years. And a quarter bil. If that doesn't knock him down a tier, I don't know what does anymore.
[quote]No, because as your bref link shows, they're comparable through age 24 in their careers. We aren't comparing AGon from 27 to Ike Davis now. We're comparing a 30+ year old AGon on the downside of his career with a player on the upswing of his.[/quote]
Again, a player that may or may not figure it out before his contract year. We don't know.
[quote]I'm sure Davis is crushed that his early career comps with a guy who hit 56 HR in his first two big league seasons and walked more than he struck out (Wally Joyner).[/quote]
And yet we don't have to worry about Ike Davis being confused with someone that walks more than they strike out or strikes out at a less than 2:1 ratio or a guy whose trending less strikeouts and trending more walks.

And big whiff on the 50 homers in his 1st two seasons.

So there's that. I guess he isn't Wally Joyner?

[quote]Should also mention that Davis' 2012 ISO of .223 is better than AGon's marks since 2009, which was 3 years and a shoulder surgery ago. Moving forward, I'm not putting my money on a guy whose body type ages poorly and is on the wrong side of 30 to hit like he did when he was 26 and 27. I am putting money on a 25 year old improving as he enters his prime.[/quote]
He hits it hard. Turns out that's not all there is to this game though. The dustbin of baseball history is littered with high ISO guys .220 hitters.

[quote]Was the trade a great move for the Dodgers? Yes. Is 2012 AGon a good player? Yes, and if he bounces back to 2010 levels he'll be great. Is he the best 1B in the game? No, and he's also not a tier 1 guy unless both his walk rate and power bounce back.[/QUOTE]
I was wrong to call him tier 1. Cabrera is clearly that guy. But if we're counting contracts and you look at Votto, Pujols, and Fielder (I'm forgetting someone) and you see a huge value difference between them and 5 years signed AGon, well, I disagree man.

Edited by speedracer, 27 August 2012 - 01:09 PM.

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#501 kill3r7

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 03:22 PM

It seems a lot of folks on here are overvaluing next years free agent crop. Hamilton, Greinke, Swisher, Bourn and Napoli are all high risk high reward players. Would you trust Hamilton to stay healthy and produce for 7 years? Greinke in the AL East would be a terrible option. Swisher is looking for a Werth-like contract but will most likely get Ethier type money. Bourn is your prototypical NL player. Mike Napoli is an enigma. Either way, point being all of these guys carry a significant amount of risk. Greinke in the NL West might have lots of success and I wouldn't put it past the Dodgers to go after him.

IMO I think the Dodgers got the better end of the deal short term and depending on how Crawford plays it might end up being a great deal long term.

#502 Icegaryen

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 03:55 PM

It seems a lot of folks on here are overvaluing next years free agent crop. Hamilton, Greinke, Swisher, Bourn and Napoli are all high risk high reward players. Would you trust Hamilton to stay healthy and produce for 7 years? Greinke in the AL East would be a terrible option. Swisher is looking for a Werth-like contract but will most likely get Ethier type money. Bourn is your prototypical NL player. Mike Napoli is an enigma. Either way, point being all of these guys carry a significant amount of risk. Greinke in the NL West might have lots of success and I wouldn't put it past the Dodgers to go after him.

IMO I think the Dodgers got the better end of the deal short term and depending on how Crawford plays it might end up being a great deal long term.


The option of signing Greinke, Hamilton and Swisher is still better than trading for Beckett, Gonzalez and Crawford

Greinke had 3 great and 1 amazing season in AL Central. He remains an ace, his time in Anaheim is still a small sample size

Swisher had 4 good consecutive season. Crawford has a combined 0.6 fWAR during his last 2 years

I don't think there is a GM stupid enough to give Hamilton 7 years.

#503 speedracer

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 04:30 PM

The option of signing Greinke, Hamilton and Swisher is still better than trading for Beckett, Gonzalez and Crawford

In a vacuum I absolutely agree with this. But this is not a vacuum and there are no 1Bs on that list. Don't get me wrong, I'm as excited about Scott Rolen and Lance Berkman as the next guy..

I don't think there is a GM stupid enough to give Hamilton 7 years.

What do you think his next contract looks like? Not what you think it should be, but what it actually will be? I'm just curious. The guy is 31 and a 3 year deal will suck every last drop of value out of him and leave him nothing on the other side of the contract. What do you think that's worth to him?
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#504 Icegaryen

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 04:35 PM

In a vacuum I absolutely agree with this. But this is not a vacuum and there are no 1Bs on that list. Don't get me wrong, I'm as excited about Scott Rolen and Lance Berkman as the next guy..


Swisher plays 1B relatively well.

What do you think his next contract looks like? Not what you think it should be, but what it actually will be? I'm just curious. The guy is 31 and a 3 year deal will suck every last drop of value out of him and leave him nothing on the other side of the contract. What do you think that's worth to him?



Someone will give him 5 years. Though I would not want my team to touch him with a stick. The last time he played over 150 games was in 2008.

#505 speedracer

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 05:14 PM

Someone will give him 5 years. Though I would not want my team to touch him with a stick. The last time he played over 150 games was in 2008.

By buying through age 36, you're leaving him with shit on the other side of the contract. He ain't gettin another big one after that. So how much would he need to sign if 4 years was max? $25/year? $30/year? What's the premium to not have the 40 year old Hamilton under contract?

Not to bring up our little spat again, but that's part of the value I see in AGon. We walk away in 5 years. Votto is owed $45m for his age 39 and 40 years. That's a fuckton of cash for an old man.
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#506 kill3r7

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 05:49 PM

The option of signing Greinke, Hamilton and Swisher is still better than trading for Beckett, Gonzalez and Crawford

Greinke had 3 great and 1 amazing season in AL Central. He remains an ace, his time in Anaheim is still a small sample size

Swisher had 4 good consecutive season. Crawford has a combined 0.6 fWAR during his last 2 years

I don't think there is a GM stupid enough to give Hamilton 7 years.


I hate doing this on the iPhone because it's a pain to link to fangraphs but Greinke had two great years on the Royals 2008 and 2009. Last year Beckett and Greinke had very similar seasons. I just don't think Greinke is the Ace everyone makes him out to be. Also, keep in mind that Beckett has a ton of playoff experience.

It is true that Swisher has played well the last four years but he's been awful in the playoffs. Also, if you compare Crawford's fWar from the last 4 seasons to Swisher's you'll see the numbers are essentially the same. So if you want to take a gamble Crawford has a way higher ceiling.

There is no way Hamilton gets anything less than 5 years. He would be stupid to take such a deal. Just my 2 cents.

#507 CaseyRyback

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 06:07 PM

If pujols and votto got the deals they got Hamilton is going to get 6/150 at a minimum.

#508 Icegaryen

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 06:16 PM

I hate doing this on the iPhone because it's a pain to link to fangraphs but Greinke had two great years on the Royals 2008 and 2009. Last year Beckett and Greinke had very similar seasons. I just don't think Greinke is the Ace everyone makes him out to be. Also, keep in mind that Beckett has a ton of playoff experience.

It is true that Swisher has played well the last four years but he's been awful in the playoffs. Also, if you compare Crawford's fWar from the last 4 seasons to Swisher's you'll see the numbers are essentially the same. So if you want to take a gamble Crawford has a way higher ceiling.

There is no way Hamilton gets anything less than 5 years. He would be stupid to take such a deal. Just my 2 cents.



Greinke was great in 2010. He is also 3 years younger than Beckett. Beckett's last play off game was in 2009. He threw 6 innings of 5.40 ERA ball. He's not the same pitcher he was in 2007.

Swisher did not have a Tommy John surgery. At this point, would you really take Crawford over Swisher?

Hamilton's games played per season:

2009: 89
2010: 133
2011: 121

And he already missed time this year. Would truly invest into him?

#509 Icegaryen

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 06:18 PM

If pujols and votto got the deals they got Hamilton is going to get 6/150 at a minimum.



Pujols and Votto are better players and have much better track records. Like I posted above, Hamilton is a lock to miss at least 30 games a year. And he's only 31.

#510 kill3r7

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 06:28 PM

Greinke was great in 2010. He is also 3 years younger than Beckett. Beckett's last play off game was in 2009. He threw 6 innings of 5.40 ERA ball. He's not the same pitcher he was in 2007.

Swisher did not have a Tommy John surgery. At this point, would you really take Crawford over Swisher?

Hamilton's games played per season:

2009: 89
2010: 133
2011: 121

And he already missed time this year. Would truly invest into him?


Greinke was merely good in 2010. His ERA was 4.17 with 181 SO and 10-14 W/L record. Those numbers scream good not great. It is true that Greinke is younger but at the same time that means he's looking for a 5 year deal which long term ends up being more expensive than Beckett. Beckett is notorious for having one good year followed by a lousy year ( although this season he's been awful). IMO Beckett will surprise a lot of people.

With respect to Swisher it hurts me to say this, as a diehard Yankee fan, but I would take Crawford over Swisher if he gets a 5/90 contract.