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MMA (UFC, Strikeforce, Bellator, Invicta, etc.) Discussion Thread -- Version II


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#1 Thekrakrabbit

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Posted 06 October 2012 - 03:22 AM

Since the original thread was shut down for some reason, likely due to its hundreds of pages, I suppose the time is to start a new MMA thread around here. First and foremost, not in a spamming manner, I recommend everyone to check out and sign up for the forums HERE. You'll love the site and the community for certain.

Secondly, as you could probably assume this thread is for discussions relating to anything in MMA and the MMA cards that come around almost every week.

Next week is UFC 153 - Silva/Bonnar with Anderson Silva headlining against Stephan Bonnar. Erick Silva vs. Jon Fitch and Demian Maia vs. Rick Story are also featured on the card.

Let the games begin!

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#2 The Great Muta

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Posted 06 October 2012 - 05:40 AM

Well, if we're pimping shit, my Twitter is below. Had you been a follower, you would have hit Nishikori (+250) and Wawrinka-Murray (-110) two days ago, or, for today, been paid 70-percent ROI on a Silva-Browne ITD and Neer-Edwards ITD parlay.

Oh, and I hit Edwards ITD at +1483. Yesterday, I hit Zhang at +1350. Last Sunday, I had the Vikings, Rams, and the Buccaneers-Redskins Over. (Rams and Vikings were underdogs.) On Monday, I had the Bears in all sorts of ways. (Bears were the underdog.) On Thursday, I had the Rams again and Rams second half—who were again at plus-money.

But yeah, MMA. UFC on FX 5 was a good card. Solid fights from bottom to top. Heard the full story on the Stephens fiasco. Drunk or not, the guy seems crazy, if the story is true.

And I had a real loud laugh after I caught a replay of the Axekick of Doom at Bellator 75. Probably the funniest thing I've seen this year.

#3 Maklershed

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Posted 06 October 2012 - 12:25 PM

Time for OneFC Rise of Kings :whee:

Oh, and I hit Edwards ITD at +1483.



I was wondering what the line was on that. I never in a million years expected Edwards to win. That was a crazy upset.

Edited by Maklershed, 06 October 2012 - 12:59 PM.


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#4 Thekrakrabbit

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Posted 06 October 2012 - 07:44 PM

Both fights ending in ball explosion makes me wonder if a third fight should even come about. Let those two be known as the guys who couldn't get through a fight without kicking each other in the nuts and let them both move on.

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#5 Mega Man

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Posted 06 October 2012 - 09:12 PM

why is anderson fighting bonnar? and go.

#6 The Great Muta

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Posted 06 October 2012 - 09:24 PM

why is anderson fighting bonnar? and go.



Well, 2012 has had a ton of injuries. That's the biggest factor. Another factor is Anderson Silva refuses to fight Chris Weidman, who is a top contender at 185.

If you had been following the news, you would have known UFC 153, the card that houses Bonnar-Silva, has been a wreck due to injuries. Originally, the main event was Koch-Aldo—but Koch had to withdraw due to injury. Then the UFC put together a superfight between Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar—which fell through due to an Aldo injury. Anderson Silva plays company man and steps up in a short-notice fight against, other company man, Stephan Bonnar, so the card has a marketable main event.

#7 The Great Muta

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Posted 06 October 2012 - 09:31 PM

Time for OneFC Rise of Kings :whee:




I was wondering what the line was on that. I never in a million years expected Edwards to win. That was a crazy upset.



I eagerly anticipate the prop lines for Silva-Bonnar. Dependent on the line, I may put money on Bonnar ITD or Bonnar by TKO/KO. If I burn money, I burn money. Silva has yet to have his St-Pierre-Serra moment—and Sonnen has shown that Silva can be hit and hurt. However, Silva has a much better chin than St-Pierre and Bonnar does not have Serra's power. But, at, say, +1500, how could ya not toss some change at the line. Only way Bonnar wins is by TKO/KO and/or ITD. Silva has shown that he can be incredibly arrogant—and we have seen what arrogance does to fighters (e.g., Travis Browne, Melvin Guillard).

#8 Maklershed

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Posted 06 October 2012 - 09:38 PM

Do you bet online Chase? I'd love to put money on Bonnar. In my mind, out of all Silva's opponents, he's the first one that has a solid chance.

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#9 The Great Muta

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Posted 06 October 2012 - 10:02 PM

Do you bet online Chase? I'd love to put money on Bonnar. In my mind, out of all Silva's opponents, he's the first one that has a solid chance.



I use a select many books. The most public book I use is 5Dimes. Not my main book—but I love their layout and lines. I also live in Las Vegas, so I never have any issue finding a place to play.

EDIT: And as a cautionary bit of friendly advice, for every me, who does very well in his chalkland adventures, there are thousands—if not tens of thousands—of people feeding the books and going broke. Last I read, under five-percent of everyone in chalkland is successful on the long-term.

#10 Ced

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Posted 07 October 2012 - 12:01 AM

Bonnar's line is probably high, but betting on Silva ITD as part of a parlay is safer.

#11 The Great Muta

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Posted 07 October 2012 - 02:06 AM

Bonnar's line is probably high, but betting on Silva ITD as part of a parlay is safer.



Depends on the number. Silva's money line has zero value. Hopefully, Silva ITD will be around -200, or a number that has value. However, oddsmakers know this, and will probably hold it hostage at around -500. That number can still be worthwhile dependent on other numbers in the card. I don't do my bets until fight day, so, even if Silva ITD had a start number of -200, I wouldn't play it until fight day.

And the only way I would play Bonnar ITD or Bonnar by TKO/KO is if it's in the +1000s. I think there's no value in the lines if below +1000. Bonnar doesn't have the power to make, say, a +500 ITD play a worthwhile investment.

Since we're talking lines. Right now, I like Pearson at +110 against Sotiropoulos, and lookout for Franklin ITD against Le. If it's good plus-money, it's a worthwhile play.

#12 Magiblaze

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Posted 07 October 2012 - 03:33 AM

I have no idea of the rules, but somehow feel this pimping out of other websites is probably frowned upon.

Batista looked awful in his fight tonight.Got the win but didn't expect that fat 300 pounder to hurt Batista like he did and make him fall back all the time.

Both fights ending in ball explosion makes me wonder if a third fight should even come about. Let those two be known as the guys who couldn't get through a fight without kicking each other in the nuts and let them both move on.

I wanna see a 3rd fight just for the hell of it and in hopes of seeing a clean finish.Good job on remaking the forum topic,was starting to miss it.

And the only way I would play Bonnar ITD or Bonnar by TKO/KO is if it's in the +1000s. I think there's no value in the lines if below +1000. Bonnar doesn't have the power to make, say, a +500 ITD play a worthwhile investment.

Surprised to hear this I am.Honestly you could raise the lines as high as you want and have Bonnar at +6000 and I'd still stay away from it.

Dennis Hallman is talkin about the family issues now saying that his wife has a drug problem and took his daughter away from him a day before the fight sending police over to come take her away from him and the judge gave her his car.

http://www.uqast.com/CssMaster/Title-5

Edited by Magiblaze, 07 October 2012 - 04:17 AM.


#13 Thekrakrabbit

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Posted 07 October 2012 - 04:45 AM

Bonnar can't beat Anderson, that's all I'll say about the fight right now. As far as "pimping" out another site, it isn't spamming I am just suggesting a great site that everyone in this thread would like.

P.S. The Silva/Bonnar card doesn't "look" great, but it has some decent fights on it. Peewee/Big Nog, Glover/Maldonado are solid off the top of my head, although Nog should be a heavy favorite against Peewee.

Check out @RealKrakrabbit - Twitter Page Full of News, Tidbits, etc., etc.

 

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#14 Magiblaze

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Posted 07 October 2012 - 05:01 AM

Nog should be a heavy favorite against Peewee.

Just went and looked at the odds for that fight.How is Nog only a -260 fav?Just screams for single bets inside the distance and parlays.

#15 Ced

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Posted 07 October 2012 - 07:01 AM

Surprised to hear this I am.Honestly you could raise the lines as high as you want and have Bonnar at +6000 and I'd still stay away from it.


Dropping $10 to win $600 on the chance the stars align just right...crazy yet intriguing.

#16 The Great Muta

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Posted 07 October 2012 - 08:32 AM

Meant no offense, Krakrabbit. Just took the opportunity to also promote myself.

Magiblaze, I understand. However, it's as Ced said. Toss a hundred to make a thousand is a worthwhile venture. As I said, if I burn money, I burn money. Gotta have money to make money, and sometimes I will burn money for entertainment. Only on occasion, though. ;) Money management is a huge part of success in chalkland.

On a similar note, NC State (+550) cashes, Reds (+112) cash, and my first Sunday play, Nishikori (+150) cashes. The other two I put out have begun.

#17 Thekrakrabbit

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Posted 07 October 2012 - 11:38 AM

Its all good to post about your plays, since I do the same! As far as "burning" money on Bonnar, that is a burn IMHO. Tell me...in the minds of you gentleman, how do you see Stephan Bonnar beating Anderson Silva? In what way?

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#18 Ced

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Posted 07 October 2012 - 02:31 PM

Anderson allowing Bonnar to hit him flush on the button in an act of ultimate hubris. Best case scenario.

#19 Maklershed

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Posted 07 October 2012 - 03:10 PM

Also, if Anderson disrespects Bonnar's ability as much as he did Maia, there's always a chance Bonnar could eek out a decision. Look - I don't think that any one that posts in this thread actually would pick Bonnar over Silva if our lives depended on it but some of us (myself included) would certainly be willing to take a risk in making some money on Bonnar if the odds are attractive enough.

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#20 Thekrakrabbit

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Posted 07 October 2012 - 08:19 PM

A classic rule of betting on fights is NOT taking "value" plays just because the odds are wide. The odds are wide for a reason, that reason being that an underdog of Bonnar's value has virtually no shot to win, all things considered. "Value" is at its best when you're seeing a weak chinned, talented guy against a hard hitting, less skilled guy but otherwise...

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#21 The Great Muta

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Posted 07 October 2012 - 08:53 PM

A classic rule of betting on fights is NOT taking "value" plays just because the odds are wide. The odds are wide for a reason, that reason being that an underdog of Bonnar's value has virtually no shot to win, all things considered. "Value" is at its best when you're seeing a weak chinned, talented guy against a hard hitting, less skilled guy but otherwise...



I said this above, but I'll clarify again. I fully expect to burn money. As a successful adventurer in chalkland, I'm betting Bonnar ITD and/or Bonnar by TKO/KO for entertainment. Outside of arrogance, there isn't a fault I see in Silva that Bonnar can capitalize, like I did with Edwards-Neer. (Neer is on a decline, his chin is questionable, he has mediocre fight intelligence, and Edwards could only win ITD.) This is just for fun. :)



Anderson allowing Bonnar to hit him flush on the button in an act of ultimate hubris. Best case scenario.



I would—love—to see this happen—and for Silva to fall like a stack of shit bricks.

#22 shotgunshine

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Posted 07 October 2012 - 09:02 PM

So how much are you going to bet on Bonnar, Chase?

jukeboxtimebomb.png


#23 The Great Muta

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Posted 07 October 2012 - 09:25 PM

So how much are you going to bet on Bonnar, Chase?



That's a good question. I rarely place bets before fight day. Probably just a hundred. Gotta have solid money management—even when placing bets for fun.

Haven't done any research, yet, for UFC 153, but, right now, for serious plays, I like Madadi-Marcello ITD, Cane-Camozzi ITD, and Gambino-Brandao ITD. Prelim fights usually get over/under lines instead of full prop lines, but I still like each of those fights Under 2.5. Madadi-Marcello will probably be set at Under 1.5, but that still seems plausible. Keep an eye on Gambino as the underdog. I usually stick to prop lines, but Gambino just may beat Brandao. Brandao has mediocre fight intelligence, but decent power. Gambino has a pretty solid chin, and it could be another Elkins-Brandao situation.

#24 Maklershed

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Posted 07 October 2012 - 10:22 PM

A classic rule of betting on fights is NOT taking "value" plays just because the odds are wide. The odds are wide for a reason, that reason being that an underdog of Bonnar's value has virtually no shot to win, all things considered. "Value" is at its best when you're seeing a weak chinned, talented guy against a hard hitting, less skilled guy but otherwise...



I don't know why I'm even responding because the reality is that no matter what I probably won't bother making an account to place a bet anyway but what I'm saying is I think its worth the risk to make money on odds that I think will probably be too far out of proportion. Have you ever played the lottery or used your money for anything in a casino other than playing red/black odd/even at a roulette table?

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#25 Thekrakrabbit

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 08:56 AM

I don't know why I'm even responding because the reality is that no matter what I probably won't bother making an account to place a bet anyway but what I'm saying is I think its worth the risk to make money on odds that I think will probably be too far out of proportion. Have you ever played the lottery or used your money for anything in a casino other than playing red/black odd/even at a roulette table?


No, actually. ;) I only put money down on bets that I am quite certain have a very good chance of winning. I don't "gamble". If you "gamble", you're not going to be all that good. Gamblers get lucky and have inconsistent results, not what I want.

I see your guys' points though. Although if you are dead set on putting a bit on Bonnar, make it ITD since he can almost certainly not win a decision.

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#26 The Great Muta

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 12:45 AM

No, actually. ;) I only put money down on bets that I am quite certain have a very good chance of winning. I don't "gamble". If you "gamble", you're not going to be all that good. Gamblers get lucky and have inconsistent results, not what I want.

I see your guys' points though. Although if you are dead set on putting a bit on Bonnar, make it ITD since he can almost certainly not win a decision.



Gambler, bettor. It's all the same. Betting is fifty-percent luck, fifty-percent research. As one of the five-percent who does well, I don't care what anyone calls me. I'm sharp and I make money. Results speak louder than words.

My portfolio:

If you want to get fancy with titles, I sometimes, for fun, refer to myself as a "short-term equity investor."



A few prop lines are up for Silva-Bonnar.

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Again, this is just for fun. If it burns, it burns.

#27 Magiblaze

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 01:43 AM

I was hoping to see some of the losses mixed in with the wins lol.

Sounds like Showtime is about to axe the deal with Strikeforce so looks by 2013 we may be able to see the rest of Strikeforce's fighters come into the UFC where some of them seem needed pretty badly with all of these injuries.

#28 The Great Muta

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 01:51 AM

I was hoping to see some of the losses mixed in with the wins lol.

Sounds like Showtime is about to axe the deal with Strikeforce so looks by 2013 we may be able to see the rest of Strikeforce's fighters come into the UFC where some of them seem needed pretty badly with all of these injuries.



I lose. Sometimes, I lose big. No serious bettor only wins. I bet a lot every day I bet, and I lose every so often. The key is to keeping the win percentage 70-percent or higher. I should find UFC 148 and UFC 149, screenshot, and frame those days. Two of my four worst days as a bettor. Just horrific, huge loss days. I never forget my losses.

And the death of Strikeforce is what's best for Zuffa, MMA. If there has been one positive about all the injuries, in 2012, it's that Zuffa probably realize they need to free up Strikeforce talent.

Cormier-Jones? Heck yes.

#29 Thekrakrabbit

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 03:23 AM

Gambler, bettor. It's all the same. Betting is fifty-percent luck, fifty-percent research. As one of the five-percent who does well, I don't care what anyone calls me. I'm sharp and I make money. Results speak louder than words.

My portfolio:

If you want to get fancy with titles, I sometimes, for fun, refer to myself as a "short-term equity investor."



A few prop lines are up for Silva-Bonnar.

Posted Image

Again, this is just for fun. If it burns, it burns.


In my mind, a "gambler" is somebody who thoughtlessly risks money in hopes of "getting lucky". An educated "bettor" is somebody who does something akin to playing the stock market, seeing where things are right now and how they stack up to others.

Check out @RealKrakrabbit - Twitter Page Full of News, Tidbits, etc., etc.

 

Also looking to make trades/sells to anyone who is interested. Check out my tradelist! :grouphug:


#30 TTGSteve

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 10:55 PM

Current rumors suggest that Strikeforce is going out of business.

"Sources close to BJPENN.com informed us just moments ago that Strikeforce operations are set to cease and that the promotion is going out of business.

The rumor comes shortly after news broke that Strikeforce middleweight champion Luke Rockhold (10-1 MMA, 9-0 SF) was forced to pull out of his title fight with Lorenz Larkin (13-0 MMA, 4-0 SF) due to a wrist injury.

The middleweight title fight was the second key loss to a scheduled November 3rd card, following the loss of a heavyweight main event bout between Frank Mir and Daniel Cormier.

Stay tuned to BJPENN.com for further updates"