MMA (UFC, Strikeforce, Bellator, Invicta, etc.) Discussion Thread -- Version II

Thekrakrabbit

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Since the original thread was shut down for some reason, likely due to its hundreds of pages, I suppose the time is to start a new MMA thread around here. First and foremost, not in a spamming manner, I recommend everyone to check out and sign up for the forums HERE. You'll love the site and the community for certain.

Secondly, as you could probably assume this thread is for discussions relating to anything in MMA and the MMA cards that come around almost every week.

Next week is UFC 153 - Silva/Bonnar with Anderson Silva headlining against Stephan Bonnar. Erick Silva vs. Jon Fitch and Demian Maia vs. Rick Story are also featured on the card.

Let the games begin!
 
Well, if we're pimping shit, my Twitter is below. Had you been a follower, you would have hit Nishikori (+250) and Wawrinka-Murray (-110) two days ago, or, for today, been paid 70-percent ROI on a Silva-Browne ITD and Neer-Edwards ITD parlay.

Oh, and I hit Edwards ITD at +1483. Yesterday, I hit Zhang at +1350. Last Sunday, I had the Vikings, Rams, and the Buccaneers-Redskins Over. (Rams and Vikings were underdogs.) On Monday, I had the Bears in all sorts of ways. (Bears were the underdog.) On Thursday, I had the Rams again and Rams second half—who were again at plus-money.

But yeah, MMA. UFC on FX 5 was a good card. Solid fights from bottom to top. Heard the full story on the Stephens fiasco. Drunk or not, the guy seems crazy, if the story is true.

And I had a real loud laugh after I caught a replay of the Axekick of Doom at Bellator 75. Probably the funniest thing I've seen this year.
 
Time for OneFC Rise of Kings :whee:

[quote name='Chase']
Oh, and I hit Edwards ITD at +1483. [/QUOTE]


I was wondering what the line was on that. I never in a million years expected Edwards to win. That was a crazy upset.
 
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Both fights ending in ball explosion makes me wonder if a third fight should even come about. Let those two be known as the guys who couldn't get through a fight without kicking each other in the nuts and let them both move on.
 
[quote name='GUNNM']why is anderson fighting bonnar? and go.[/QUOTE]


Well, 2012 has had a ton of injuries. That's the biggest factor. Another factor is Anderson Silva refuses to fight Chris Weidman, who is a top contender at 185.

If you had been following the news, you would have known UFC 153, the card that houses Bonnar-Silva, has been a wreck due to injuries. Originally, the main event was Koch-Aldo—but Koch had to withdraw due to injury. Then the UFC put together a superfight between Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar—which fell through due to an Aldo injury. Anderson Silva plays company man and steps up in a short-notice fight against, other company man, Stephan Bonnar, so the card has a marketable main event.
 
[quote name='Maklershed']Time for OneFC Rise of Kings :whee:




I was wondering what the line was on that. I never in a million years expected Edwards to win. That was a crazy upset.[/QUOTE]


I eagerly anticipate the prop lines for Silva-Bonnar. Dependent on the line, I may put money on Bonnar ITD or Bonnar by TKO/KO. If I burn money, I burn money. Silva has yet to have his St-Pierre-Serra moment—and Sonnen has shown that Silva can be hit and hurt. However, Silva has a much better chin than St-Pierre and Bonnar does not have Serra's power. But, at, say, +1500, how could ya not toss some change at the line. Only way Bonnar wins is by TKO/KO and/or ITD. Silva has shown that he can be incredibly arrogant—and we have seen what arrogance does to fighters (e.g., Travis Browne, Melvin Guillard).
 
Do you bet online Chase? I'd love to put money on Bonnar. In my mind, out of all Silva's opponents, he's the first one that has a solid chance.
 
[quote name='Maklershed']Do you bet online Chase? I'd love to put money on Bonnar. In my mind, out of all Silva's opponents, he's the first one that has a solid chance.[/QUOTE]


I use a select many books. The most public book I use is 5Dimes. Not my main book—but I love their layout and lines. I also live in Las Vegas, so I never have any issue finding a place to play.

EDIT: And as a cautionary bit of friendly advice, for every me, who does very well in his chalkland adventures, there are thousands—if not tens of thousands—of people feeding the books and going broke. Last I read, under five-percent of everyone in chalkland is successful on the long-term.
 
Bonnar's line is probably high, but betting on Silva ITD as part of a parlay is safer.
 
[quote name='ced']Bonnar's line is probably high, but betting on Silva ITD as part of a parlay is safer.[/QUOTE]


Depends on the number. Silva's money line has zero value. Hopefully, Silva ITD will be around -200, or a number that has value. However, oddsmakers know this, and will probably hold it hostage at around -500. That number can still be worthwhile dependent on other numbers in the card. I don't do my bets until fight day, so, even if Silva ITD had a start number of -200, I wouldn't play it until fight day.

And the only way I would play Bonnar ITD or Bonnar by TKO/KO is if it's in the +1000s. I think there's no value in the lines if below +1000. Bonnar doesn't have the power to make, say, a +500 ITD play a worthwhile investment.

Since we're talking lines. Right now, I like Pearson at +110 against Sotiropoulos, and lookout for Franklin ITD against Le. If it's good plus-money, it's a worthwhile play.
 
I have no idea of the rules, but somehow feel this pimping out of other websites is probably frowned upon.

Batista looked awful in his fight tonight.Got the win but didn't expect that fat 300 pounder to hurt Batista like he did and make him fall back all the time.

[quote name='Thekrakrabbit']Both fights ending in ball explosion makes me wonder if a third fight should even come about. Let those two be known as the guys who couldn't get through a fight without kicking each other in the nuts and let them both move on.[/QUOTE]
I wanna see a 3rd fight just for the hell of it and in hopes of seeing a clean finish.Good job on remaking the forum topic,was starting to miss it.

[quote name='Chase']

And the only way I would play Bonnar ITD or Bonnar by TKO/KO is if it's in the +1000s. I think there's no value in the lines if below +1000. Bonnar doesn't have the power to make, say, a +500 ITD play a worthwhile investment.

[/QUOTE]
Surprised to hear this I am.Honestly you could raise the lines as high as you want and have Bonnar at +6000 and I'd still stay away from it.

Dennis Hallman is talkin about the family issues now saying that his wife has a drug problem and took his daughter away from him a day before the fight sending police over to come take her away from him and the judge gave her his car.

http://www.uqast.com/CssMaster/Title-5
 
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Bonnar can't beat Anderson, that's all I'll say about the fight right now. As far as "pimping" out another site, it isn't spamming I am just suggesting a great site that everyone in this thread would like.

P.S. The Silva/Bonnar card doesn't "look" great, but it has some decent fights on it. Peewee/Big Nog, Glover/Maldonado are solid off the top of my head, although Nog should be a heavy favorite against Peewee.
 
[quote name='Thekrakrabbit']Nog should be a heavy favorite against Peewee.[/QUOTE]
Just went and looked at the odds for that fight.How is Nog only a -260 fav?Just screams for single bets inside the distance and parlays.
 
[quote name='Magiblaze']Surprised to hear this I am.Honestly you could raise the lines as high as you want and have Bonnar at +6000 and I'd still stay away from it.[/QUOTE]

Dropping $10 to win $600 on the chance the stars align just right...crazy yet intriguing.
 
Meant no offense, Krakrabbit. Just took the opportunity to also promote myself.

Magiblaze, I understand. However, it's as Ced said. Toss a hundred to make a thousand is a worthwhile venture. As I said, if I burn money, I burn money. Gotta have money to make money, and sometimes I will burn money for entertainment. Only on occasion, though. ;) Money management is a huge part of success in chalkland.

On a similar note, NC State (+550) cashes, Reds (+112) cash, and my first Sunday play, Nishikori (+150) cashes. The other two I put out have begun.
 
Its all good to post about your plays, since I do the same! As far as "burning" money on Bonnar, that is a burn IMHO. Tell me...in the minds of you gentleman, how do you see Stephan Bonnar beating Anderson Silva? In what way?
 
Anderson allowing Bonnar to hit him flush on the button in an act of ultimate hubris. Best case scenario.
 
Also, if Anderson disrespects Bonnar's ability as much as he did Maia, there's always a chance Bonnar could eek out a decision. Look - I don't think that any one that posts in this thread actually would pick Bonnar over Silva if our lives depended on it but some of us (myself included) would certainly be willing to take a risk in making some money on Bonnar if the odds are attractive enough.
 
A classic rule of betting on fights is NOT taking "value" plays just because the odds are wide. The odds are wide for a reason, that reason being that an underdog of Bonnar's value has virtually no shot to win, all things considered. "Value" is at its best when you're seeing a weak chinned, talented guy against a hard hitting, less skilled guy but otherwise...
 
[quote name='Thekrakrabbit']A classic rule of betting on fights is NOT taking "value" plays just because the odds are wide. The odds are wide for a reason, that reason being that an underdog of Bonnar's value has virtually no shot to win, all things considered. "Value" is at its best when you're seeing a weak chinned, talented guy against a hard hitting, less skilled guy but otherwise...[/QUOTE]


I said this above, but I'll clarify again. I fully expect to burn money. As a successful adventurer in chalkland, I'm betting Bonnar ITD and/or Bonnar by TKO/KO for entertainment. Outside of arrogance, there isn't a fault I see in Silva that Bonnar can capitalize, like I did with Edwards-Neer. (Neer is on a decline, his chin is questionable, he has mediocre fight intelligence, and Edwards could only win ITD.) This is just for fun. :)



[quote name='ced']Anderson allowing Bonnar to hit him flush on the button in an act of ultimate hubris. Best case scenario.[/QUOTE]


I would—love—to see this happen—and for Silva to fall like a stack of shit bricks.
 
[quote name='shotgunshine']So how much are you going to bet on Bonnar, Chase?[/QUOTE]


That's a good question. I rarely place bets before fight day. Probably just a hundred. Gotta have solid money management—even when placing bets for fun.

Haven't done any research, yet, for UFC 153, but, right now, for serious plays, I like Madadi-Marcello ITD, Cane-Camozzi ITD, and Gambino-Brandao ITD. Prelim fights usually get over/under lines instead of full prop lines, but I still like each of those fights Under 2.5. Madadi-Marcello will probably be set at Under 1.5, but that still seems plausible. Keep an eye on Gambino as the underdog. I usually stick to prop lines, but Gambino just may beat Brandao. Brandao has mediocre fight intelligence, but decent power. Gambino has a pretty solid chin, and it could be another Elkins-Brandao situation.
 
[quote name='Thekrakrabbit']A classic rule of betting on fights is NOT taking "value" plays just because the odds are wide. The odds are wide for a reason, that reason being that an underdog of Bonnar's value has virtually no shot to win, all things considered. "Value" is at its best when you're seeing a weak chinned, talented guy against a hard hitting, less skilled guy but otherwise...[/QUOTE]


I don't know why I'm even responding because the reality is that no matter what I probably won't bother making an account to place a bet anyway but what I'm saying is I think its worth the risk to make money on odds that I think will probably be too far out of proportion. Have you ever played the lottery or used your money for anything in a casino other than playing red/black odd/even at a roulette table?
 
[quote name='Maklershed']I don't know why I'm even responding because the reality is that no matter what I probably won't bother making an account to place a bet anyway but what I'm saying is I think its worth the risk to make money on odds that I think will probably be too far out of proportion. Have you ever played the lottery or used your money for anything in a casino other than playing red/black odd/even at a roulette table?[/QUOTE]

No, actually. ;) I only put money down on bets that I am quite certain have a very good chance of winning. I don't "gamble". If you "gamble", you're not going to be all that good. Gamblers get lucky and have inconsistent results, not what I want.

I see your guys' points though. Although if you are dead set on putting a bit on Bonnar, make it ITD since he can almost certainly not win a decision.
 
[quote name='Thekrakrabbit']No, actually. ;) I only put money down on bets that I am quite certain have a very good chance of winning. I don't "gamble". If you "gamble", you're not going to be all that good. Gamblers get lucky and have inconsistent results, not what I want.

I see your guys' points though. Although if you are dead set on putting a bit on Bonnar, make it ITD since he can almost certainly not win a decision.[/QUOTE]


Gambler, bettor. It's all the same. Betting is fifty-percent luck, fifty-percent research. As one of the five-percent who does well, I don't care what anyone calls me. I'm sharp and I make money. Results speak louder than words.

My portfolio: http://imgur.com/a/9aYwL

If you want to get fancy with titles, I sometimes, for fun, refer to myself as a "short-term equity investor."



A few prop lines are up for Silva-Bonnar.

Iw7mf.png


Again, this is just for fun. If it burns, it burns.
 
I was hoping to see some of the losses mixed in with the wins lol.

Sounds like Showtime is about to axe the deal with Strikeforce so looks by 2013 we may be able to see the rest of Strikeforce's fighters come into the UFC where some of them seem needed pretty badly with all of these injuries.
 
[quote name='Magiblaze']I was hoping to see some of the losses mixed in with the wins lol.

Sounds like Showtime is about to axe the deal with Strikeforce so looks by 2013 we may be able to see the rest of Strikeforce's fighters come into the UFC where some of them seem needed pretty badly with all of these injuries.[/QUOTE]


I lose. Sometimes, I lose big. No serious bettor only wins. I bet a lot every day I bet, and I lose every so often. The key is to keeping the win percentage 70-percent or higher. I should find UFC 148 and UFC 149, screenshot, and frame those days. Two of my four worst days as a bettor. Just horrific, huge loss days. I never forget my losses.

And the death of Strikeforce is what's best for Zuffa, MMA. If there has been one positive about all the injuries, in 2012, it's that Zuffa probably realize they need to free up Strikeforce talent.

Cormier-Jones? Heck yes.
 
[quote name='Chase']Gambler, bettor. It's all the same. Betting is fifty-percent luck, fifty-percent research. As one of the five-percent who does well, I don't care what anyone calls me. I'm sharp and I make money. Results speak louder than words.

My portfolio: http://imgur.com/a/9aYwL

If you want to get fancy with titles, I sometimes, for fun, refer to myself as a "short-term equity investor."



A few prop lines are up for Silva-Bonnar.

Iw7mf.png


Again, this is just for fun. If it burns, it burns.[/QUOTE]

In my mind, a "gambler" is somebody who thoughtlessly risks money in hopes of "getting lucky". An educated "bettor" is somebody who does something akin to playing the stock market, seeing where things are right now and how they stack up to others.
 
Current rumors suggest that Strikeforce is going out of business.

"Sources close to BJPENN.com informed us just moments ago that Strikeforce operations are set to cease and that the promotion is going out of business.

The rumor comes shortly after news broke that Strikeforce middleweight champion Luke Rockhold (10-1 MMA, 9-0 SF) was forced to pull out of his title fight with Lorenz Larkin (13-0 MMA, 4-0 SF) due to a wrist injury.

The middleweight title fight was the second key loss to a scheduled November 3rd card, following the loss of a heavyweight main event bout between Frank Mir and Daniel Cormier.

Stay tuned to BJPENN.com for further updates"
 
Some good news considering Vitor Belfort wasn't quite the contender people had hoped for.Comes in a bit lower then the bout with Machida which was around 480k I think.

"UFC 152 PPV Buys Estimated At Around 450,000"
 
[quote name='TTGSteve']Current rumors suggest that Strikeforce is going out of business.

"Sources close to BJPENN.com informed us just moments ago that Strikeforce operations are set to cease and that the promotion is going out of business.

The rumor comes shortly after news broke that Strikeforce middleweight champion Luke Rockhold (10-1 MMA, 9-0 SF) was forced to pull out of his title fight with Lorenz Larkin (13-0 MMA, 4-0 SF) due to a wrist injury.

The middleweight title fight was the second key loss to a scheduled November 3rd card, following the loss of a heavyweight main event bout between Frank Mir and Daniel Cormier.

Stay tuned to BJPENN.com for further updates"[/QUOTE]

Yeah I heard about that as well. Strikeforce is apparently going to close up shop in 2013 and that is when their deal with Showtime is getting finished too. So we should be seeing SF fighters transitioning over very soon.
 
Wonder what the Fitch haters are going to say tonight. He looked fantastic and absolutely went after it! Love watching fights like that!
 
Man, that Fabio Maldonado is not human!!!!! I've never seen a guy take a beating for that long!!!! shit was almost disturbing tbh.
 
[quote name='GUNNM']or not so uh who's left at 185 for Silva?[/QUOTE]
Weidman, Belcher, Bisping, even Boetsch. I'm tired of hearing about Silva fighting Jones or GSP. The GSP talk is beyond ridiculous and has been for years. Silva's fine with the GSP fight because he outweighs him by a large margin, but he is suspiciously uncomfortable with the idea of fighting Jones. There's more than enough people for him to take on at middleweight.
 
Before tonight honestly I wasn't that interested in Jones vs. Anderson but now...it does feel like the fight for Anderson to try and retire on.Just amazing how he let Bonnar throw all those shots and was just playing with him like that and then when he decides to go for the kill does it so easily,even more impressive with it being Bonnar whos never been legit finished until now and it was just with a perfectly timed knee.Watching Anderson strike just makes it seem as if time is slowed down for him to pick his shots like that.Vitor was able to threaten Jones with submissions at times with a near armbar and triangle towards the second,I'd think Anderson would manage to do better on the ground dealing with Jones.Seems like the biggest/most exciting superfight out there.
 
Had a great time watching UFC 153 Tonight.The matches weren't really of that much importance but they were all fun entertaining fights.Even the Fitch fight was exciting and there was quite a lot of great grappling fights going on this card.
 
Glover looked pretty good tonight. I'm very curious to see who he will fight next. I'd love to see a Rashad/Glover fight. Yeah I know Rashad turned down a fight with Glover earlier, but that was because the fight was on short notice.
 
Even though he got the living hell beat out of him I think Fabio's stock somewhat rose showing off that sort of chin.I would be very surprised if he got cut after this despite being 1-3 in his last four.I would like to see Glover face Rampage next assuming Rampage will be healed up well enough sometime in the next 6 months.Glover is a good fighter but I don't think hes all that hes hyped up to be but I'm very interested in seeing him face a top fighter next like a Shogun or a Evans.
 
I have never seen a more vicious beating then the one Fabio Maldonado took against Glover...that first round assault was insane...what made it more crazy is Fabio, being practically out on his feet managed to stun Glover with a left hook.

Despite most of this card being unimportant, there was still some fun fights, great ko's, and subs.
 
Chase is that you on sherdog as just plain Chase? lol.Joined a pool and see that name there, so figuring its maybe you although Chase is a more common name.
 
bread's done
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