Bush Tax Panel Recommendations Sure to Destroy the Housing Market

PittsburghAfterDark

CAGiversary!
Of all the asenine tax proposals I have seen put forth by any Presidential panel this one takes the cake for sheer madness. The housing market in major U.S. cities like New York, Boston, D.C. Los Angeles, San Francisco and Chicago (And several others.) would be devestated by this panels recommendations.

The notion put forth is that interest expenses on mortages above $350,000 not be tax deductable. The current limit is $1,000,000. Now in major cities you cannot find a property worth investing in for less than $400,000. For a 3-4 bedroom home in most major U.S. markets you're looking at a $500,000 purchase price at best. In markets like San Francisco you may hit $750,000 or more for this kind of home.

People are already unable to afford homes in these markets with any kind of principal payments found in traditional 30 year fixed rate mortgages. So much of the current housing boom has been financed with interest only LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rates) mortgages. More or less it's a rent payment to a finance company as most people will never pay off this type of mortgage.

However with 100% of a mortgage payment being tax deductable millions of people are able to live in a single family home that would otherwise never be able to afford them. Now these Keynesian theory rejects want to make home ownership unaffordable to millions of Americans. The housing market is the driving force of the American economy. Beyond the real estate, construction and finance jobs that are created the durable goods business and a good portion of the service and retail sector are dependent on people doing home improvements either through contractors or DIY.

Reduce the deductables by $650,000 and you're going to see a whole lot of trickle down misery as the housing market crumbles and all the associated business that goes with it. Not only can't I believe this recommendation was put forward I just pray that someone in the Bush administration sees this as the economic disaster in waiting that it is. If this proposal hits the House and Senate finance committees and isn't declared DOA you are going to see a backlash of voters across party lines the likes of which probably hasn't existed since Congress eliminated the tax deductability of credit card interest payments.

Bush Panel May Curb Tax Breaks for Homeowners, Health (Update3)

Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush's tax advisory panel, rejecting a fundamental overhaul, agreed to recommend limiting tax breaks for homeowners and employer- provided health-care benefits to help pay for repealing the alternative minimum tax.

The panel, meeting in Washington today, agreed the current $1 million cap on deductible mortgage interest should be reduced, possibly to about $350,000, and that the deduction should yield no more than a 25 percent tax savings, down from a top savings now of about 35 percent.

The panel also said it would probably recommend capping tax deductions for employer-provided health-care plans. Current law allows employers to deduct the value of premiums paid on behalf of their workers without the benefit being considered taxable income to the employee. The panel discussed placing the cap at the maximum amount the federal government pays in premiums for its workers, currently about $11,000.

``These are the things we're looking at,'' said panel Vice Chairman John Breaux, a Democrat and former senator from Louisiana. ``We have a concept. We know where to go. We just don't have the details.''

Both changes would preserve the incentives for lower-and middle-income workers while curbing them for wealthier Americans who are getting a disproportionate benefit, panelists said.

Breaux said such ``tough choices'' would raise ``a generous amount'' of taxes to help offset the $1.3 trillion cost of repealing the alternative minimum tax, he said. The minimum tax, imposed in 1969 to ensure that 200 wealthy families didn't escape tax with excess deductions, is now forcing millions of middle- income families to pay higher taxes because it was never indexed for inflation.

No Sales Tax

The panel decided not to endorse a national sales tax in its final recommendations and most panel members expressed reservations about a European-style value-added tax, which is in place in most industrialized countries.

Both systems would disproportionately hurt the poor, panelists said, and some members such as Chairman Connie Mack, the former Republican senator from Florida, and former Minnesota Representative Bill Frenzel said they worry a value-added tax would make it too easy for the government to raise money and increase spending programs.

Mack asked the panel's staff to devise a specific proposal that would layer a value-added tax on the current system and reduce individual and corporate income tax rates.

Still, he said that as the panel's work begins to wrap up, it's looking more and more to making changes within the current system.

Value-Added Tax

``We're getting focused down on the income tax here,'' Mack said. In a later interview, he added, ``I would be surprised if we were to conclude that we want to offer a value-added tax proposal to the president.''

The panel increasingly is looking to eliminate or restrict tax preferences already embedded in the law. David Walker, the head of the Government Accountability Office, said Sept. 23 that uncollected revenue because of the incentives tripled since 1974 to $730 billion. The biggest embedded tax breaks subsidize housing and health care, Walker said.

The details of the mortgage interest and health care proposals will be ironed out next week, Mack said. He said the proposals are ``clearly redistributing'' the tax benefits for homeownership and health care to lower-income Americans.

Lower-Income Homeowners

Tax breaks for homeownership particularly help the wealthy while lower-income people don't get enough benefits, said panelists such as Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment officer at San Francisco-based Charles Schwab Corp. The current incentives, including the fact that most home sales are tax-free, are driving up home prices, making them unaffordable or pushing lower-income borrowers to take out risky mortgages.

``We are starting to see some significant pain here,'' Sonders said.

The panel agreed to a proposal by former IRS Commissioner Charles Rossotti to make it easier for lower income Americans to get a tax break for donating money to charity.

Investment Income

The panel may compensate wealthier Americans who lose some of those benefits by reducing or repealing taxes on investment income. Mack said that proposal would be discussed at the panel's final meeting on Oct. 18. The panel is due to make its final recommendations to the Treasury Department by Nov. 1. Its report will serve as a blueprint for a comprehensive proposal by Bush to overhaul the tax code as early as next year. Bush appointed the nine-member panel in January.

Panel member John Poterba, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, presented a subcommittee's findings on the ramifications of changing to the mortgage interest deductions. Reducing to about $300,000 or $350,000 the cap on mortgage interest deduction and limiting the tax savings yield would preserve the benefits for the middle class, he said.

A person who takes out a mortgage that exceeds the cap would lose deductions on excessive amounts, while those in top tax brackets would only get a maximum 15 or 25 percent deduction, depending on where the panel ultimately sets the cap. Panelists also discussed converting the deduction to a credit, which would allow the 70 percent of Americans who don't currently itemize to claim the break for the first time.

Transition Period

Poterba suggested, and other panel members agreed to recommend, an extended transition period during which homeowners could take advantage of laws as they existed when they bought their homes ``so we're not changing the rules of the game for people out there.''

Linda Goold, a lobbyist at the National Association of Realtors in Washington, said the panel is wise to consider an extended transition period if it changes tax incentives for homeownership ``as any change is likely to have a winners and losers effect.''

She said the group was reserving judgment on the panel's recommendations until a final report is issued, but said it is concerned that lowering the mortgage interest cap may have an uneven impact around the country, hurting states like California that have higher housing costs more than those with more affordable housing, such as Indiana.

Earlier, the panel agreed to curb tax preferences for employer-provided health care.

Former Federal Trade Commission Chairman Tim Muris, a member of the panel, said the change would end subsidies that favor wealthier Americans. If adopted, the change would increase taxes on workers whose employers provide them health plans that are more valuable than those offered government workers.

`Subsidy'

``It obviously means that the incentive -- the subsidy if you will -- to take a policy above the cap will be removed and therefore there will be people who will be much more sensitive to that,'' Muris said.

Tax preferences for health care are the largest incentives in the current tax code, and American workers will save $1.9 trillion over the next decade by avoiding taxes on the value of their employer-provided premiums.

There is no consensus about whether to also restrict the deduction employers take for providing coverage, Breaux and Mack said after the meeting.

``How can you do it one way and not the other?'' Breaux asked.

Breaux said he realized both proposals may lack political appeal in Congress, though he said that wasn't the panel's concern. ``Our job is to make bold proposals without regard of the politics,'' he said.

Mohit Ghose, vice president of public affairs at America's Health Insurance Plans, a trade group in Alexandria, Virginia, said a recent poll of 400 people commissioned by his organization concluded voters want to preserve tax preferences for health care.

``Voters are sending a very clear message that they do not support changing the tax status of employer-sponsored or employer- provided health care.''

Link
 
I don't see this as devastating the housing market. A $350k house is still out of the reach of most people short of the upper middle class and anything higher. As it is, my mom and her boyfriend are in a house that is worth less than $250k in Chicagoland and they aren't exactly poor. This will most likely have the effect of shifting the tax burden a little further up the class ladder.
 
[quote name='capitalist_mao']I don't see this as devastating the housing market. A $350k house is still out of the reach of most people short of the upper middle class and anything higher. As it is, my mom and her boyfriend are in a house that is worth less than $250k in Chicagoland and they aren't exactly poor. This will most likely have the effect of shifting the tax burden a little further up the class ladder.[/QUOTE]

You don't know housing markets in other areas. Chicago has affordable housing outside the city, and you can buy decent house for well under that within the area. Now, if you wanted to live near boston, you wouldn't find much south (go south for about an hour and you hit providence, rhode island, so no low prices down there), north (probably an hour), and I don't think going west will be much help either (though I don't know that area). The average house in my area comes in at about 300-350k, and this is your run of the mill suburbs. If you want to go into more wealthy areas, or more city areas, you're gonna start running into many houses that are more than that. 250k won't get you a house you'd want to live in unless you went into a poor, non city area.

Connecticut is the wealthiest state in the country, so areas like that would be hit even worse I assume. We may make more up here than people in other areas, but the cost of living more than makes up for it.
 
[quote name='alonzomourning23']You don't know housing markets in other areas. Chicago has affordable housing outside the city, and you can buy decent house for well under that within the area. Now, if you wanted to live near boston, you wouldn't find much south (go south for about an hour and you hit providence, rhode island, so no low prices down there), north (probably an hour), and I don't think going west will be much help either (though I don't know that area). The average house in my area comes in at about 300-350k, and this is your run of the mill suburbs. If you want to go into more wealthy areas, or more city areas, you're gonna start running into many houses that are more than that. 250k won't get you a house you'd want to live in unless you went into a poor, non city area.

Connecticut is the wealthiest state in the country, so areas like that would be hit even worse I assume. We may make more up here than people in other areas, but the cost of living more than makes up for it.[/QUOTE]

Actually, Chicago DOESN'T have affordable housing outside the city. THis is a house fairly close to the chicago city limits. The point I was trying to make is that two people that make decent money (my mom is a Ph.D) are living in a house that is not worth a whole lot in a middle to lower middle class neighborhood.

This sort of tax code renovation has the effect of affecting only the higher classes. The types of families that make in excess of $150k per year
 
Who do you think pays to put in $20,000 kitchens, $10,000 bathrooms, $10,000 home theaters, new roofs, landscaping, pools, home security systems, spends $15,000+ on furniture, carpeting, painting, wallpapering etc. when they buy a new home?

People making money. People making in excess of six figures.

Now, who profits when these people are investing that kind of cash? The middle to lower middle class, small business owners, independent contractors and their respective employees. If you make the tax code unfavorable to home ownership the subsequent capital spending that goes with it disappears. It's not about what someone earns it's about the ripple effect home ownership has. If you make home ownership unaffordable to an additional 15% of the American population, which this may do, that represents billions of unspent money and hardship throughout housing related business segments.

As a result of the 1990 omnibus budget deal (The one that got Bush number 1 fired for breaking his "Read my lips, no new taxes." pledge.) someone had the bright idea to slap a huge luxury tax on yachts. It was some ridiculous amount like 20% of the purchase price. Now here's the problem. If you're going to buy a $100,000+ boat you're not going to care if you buy it in America from an American company. As a result buyers of these high ticket items bought their boats in Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas or Mexico and had them brought back. The result was disasterous for American manufacturers. Thousands of people were laid off from $50-100K a year jobs that had expertise in boat building. The tax was eliminated, the yacht industry came back.

George Will wrote about this very thing for the Jewish World Review and Patrick Kennedy, of all people, awarded tax credits and benefits to purchasers of 50+ foot boats. Turns out this "class warfare" strategy resulted in threatening Rhode Island's 6,600 boat building jobs.

In 1990 the Joint Committee on Taxation projected that the 1991 revenue yield from luxury taxes would be $31 million. It was $16.6 million. Why? Because (surprise!) the taxation changed behavior: Fewer people bought the taxed products. Demand went down when prices went up. Washington was amazed. People bought yachts overseas. Who would have thought it?

According to a study done for the Joint Economic Committee, the tax destroyed 330 jobs in jewelry manufacturing, 1,470 in the aircraft industry and 7,600 in the boating industry. The job losses cost the government a total of $24.2 million in unemployment benefits and lost income tax revenues. So the net effect of the taxes was a loss of $7.6 million in fiscal 1991, which means the government projection was off by $38.6 million.

This illustrates the shortcomings of "static analysis." Concerning which, consider an imaginary case.

This is a variation of the same thing. It's the little guy that suffers bigtime when people with money can't or don't spend it.


I wouldn't expect anyone with "Mao" in his user name to understand such a thing. Concepts like macroeconomics are usually lost on avowed communists.
 
[quote name='capitalist_mao']Actually, Chicago DOESN'T have affordable housing outside the city. THis is a house fairly close to the chicago city limits. The point I was trying to make is that two people that make decent money (my mom is a Ph.D) are living in a house that is not worth a whole lot in a middle to lower middle class neighborhood.

This sort of tax code renovation has the effect of affecting only the higher classes. The types of families that make in excess of $150k per year[/QUOTE]

Affordable is relative, and I only said that because I was thinking of the cost of houses here versus chicago. My next door neighbor has an uncle who lives a half hour outside of chicago and his house is worth about 150k, they were trying to get him to move out here but he said it wasn't worth it, since he'd be paying about 350k a half hour outside of boston for an equivalent house.

The median value of houses in the boston area is 387,000, the median value in the chicago area is 242,000 (http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/lists/nar_4q/price.html). For us, that 242k is extremely affordable. The change that is being proposed won't affect that average chicago family, it would affect the average boston area family.
 
Interesting list from Money/CNN. This would, in effect, make half the housing in 12 different housing markets tax unfriendly to own real estate above the market median price of that article. You'd also make half the housing tax unfriendly in 10 more markets within 3 years if current increases in property trending continues. Those trends continue for another 10 years and you could probably add another 10 markets.

So net effect half the housing in 32 different real estate markets (There are 210 DMA's in the United States.) would be above this cap within the next decade. Take into account the top 30 DMA's (Where these housing prices will most likely affect buying behavior.) represent 49% of the U.S. population. Link

That's a whole lot of people that are going to be shit out of luck because their mortgage value makes them "TEH R!CH!1!1!!!".
 
I can't see how this affects anything but the ultra wealthy to begin with. Others have pointed out that you aren't talking about housing that is going to be owned by anyone in the lower to middle classes (and by starting with housing around $350,000, you're scraping just the upper echelon of the upper middle class, if you want to base status purely on income).

You did nothing to defend that argument, PAD, simply because you cannot. Instead, you decided to go to the "these people won't renovate their homes and keep you poor contract laborers in business" argument, which is (1) totally unproven (you're trying to tell me people will purchase homes with values going towards $1,000,000 and NOT renovate it? Puh-lease), and (2) a supply-side economics argument (and, I know you're still late to the game, but as far as economics theories go, trickle-down is one of the most lopsided and false concepts put forward; there is no proof that supply-side economics theories actually apply in reality).

So, with that out of the way (for the moment, that is), who's going to be affected by this? The people that can afford to pay $350,000 to $1,000,000 for a home? Given that these people were disproportionate beneficiaries of not just one, but both of Bush's tax cuts, this is hopefully just the beginning of extracting a fair amount from them.
 
Answer me one simple question. How does taking on greater and greater amounts of debt make you rich? How do you equate increased debt load with increased wealth? Net worth is assetts minus liabilities.

If trickle down economics doesn't work why would any state care if BMW, Mercedes, Hyundai, Toyota or Nissan puts a $1,000,000,000 factory in their state or the one next door? I mean, after all, that investment won't create any jobs, revenue or benefit to the state will it. It can't, trickle down doesn't work. Likewise why would any city or state care if people moved out jobs, closed plants or operations? Trickle down doesn't work.

Middle class people do buy $500,000 homes. Are you going to try and explain away the fact that the median home value in San Francisco is $656,000, $627,000 in Orange County/Anaheim, $569,000 in San Diego, $470,000 in Los Angeles, $387,000 in Boston and $370,000 in D.C.? Median means half the houses sell for less, half sell for more in other words, it's smack dab in the middle of the real estate market. It's reflective of market prices in general.

So, and I can't wait for your answer, are you going to tell us there are no middle class people in those cities and they're all rich, uber rich and need to pay more taxes on something that is a contributor to negative, not positive, net worth?

This is the latest data for calendar year 2003 just released in October 2005 by the Internal Revenue Service. The share of total income taxes paid by the top 1% of wage earners rose to 34.27% from 33.71% in 2002. Their income share (not just wages) rose from 16.12% to 16.77%. However, their average tax rate actually dropped from 27.25% down to 24.31%

I'm waiting for the bottom 50% to pay their fair share.

Think of it this way: less than 3-1/2 dollars out of every $100 paid in income taxes in the United States is paid by someone in the bottom 50% of wage earners. Are the top half millionaires? Noooo, more like "thousandaires." The top 50% were those individuals or couples filing jointly who earned $29,019 and up in 2003. (The top 1% earned $295,495-plus.) Americans who want to are continuing to improve their lives, and those who don't want to, aren't. Here are the wage earners in each category and the percentages they pay: The top 1% pay over a third, 34.27% of all income taxes. (Up from 2003: 33.71%) The top 5% pay 54.36% of all income taxes (Down from 2002: 53.80%). The top 10% pay 65.84% (Up from 2002: 65.73%). The top 25% pay 83.88% (Down from 2002: 83.90%). The top 50% pay 96.54% (Up from 2002: 96.50%). The bottom 50%? They pay a paltry 3.46% of all income taxes (Down from 2002: 3.50%). The top 1% is paying nearly ten times the federal income taxes than the bottom 50%! And who earns what? The top 1% earns 16.77% of all income (2002: 16.12%). The top 5% earns 31.18% of all the income (2002: 30.55%). The top 10% earns 42.36% of all the income (2002: 41.77%); the top 25% earns 64.86% of all the income (2002: 64.37%) , and the top 50% earns 86.01% (2002: 85.77%) of all the income.

The bottom 50% is paying a tiny bit of the taxes, so you can't give them much of a tax cut by definition. Yet these are the people to whom the Democrats claim to want to give tax cuts. Remember this the next time you hear the "tax cuts for the rich" business. Understand that the so-called rich are about the only ones paying taxes anymore.
 
Medians are meaningless if there is a bimodal distribution, which would certainly make sense in ubran areas, considering the dichotomous nature of housing (blight or upscale) in urban areas. So, no, I won't say that there are only uber-wealthy people there. I will, however, claim that the wealthy and the poor alike live in urban centers disproportionately to middle-income earners. Their respective incomes and housing costs (presuming the poor/working class owns their homes; perhaps it is owned by landlords and banks instead) as stated by a median oversimplify, and thus distort the reality of urban life. When you seek the median of a dichotomy, you're going to get something that fails to represent anything that you've measured.

To refute the notion of supply-side economics, I will quote you, PAD: "How does taking on greater and greater amounts of debt make you rich?" Supply-side economics is all about publicizing the costs of running a business, and privatizing the profit, under the presumption that the existence of business will spurn enough residual economic impact as to offset the publicized costs. Our national debt will assure you that it hasn't paid off.

EDIT: Your data is excellent, PAD. By showing that the top 1% tax share increased .56% while their income share increased .65% shows that their income increase EXCEEDS their tax increase. Thanks, I shall call my congressmen (but what the fuck and I gonna do with McConnell and Bunning?).

I'm curious that you aren't perturbed by the fact that 50% of couples in this country, the land of the free and accountability, bootstraps, and all that crap, earn less than $29k per year. Didn't you just lament in a thread less than a week ago about your "poor" post-college experiences (living as a BACHELOR, and NOT A FAMILY) earning over $20k per year? You're adorable when you're inconsistent, you know that?

EDIT 2: If you want to grouse about how the wealthy are victims of taxes, perhaps you would like to live in the lap of luxury? Those earning under $29k/year just have it so good, you know. Here's a suggestion: if you don't like taxes, EARN LESS MONEY. You know where your desired tax bracket is at, so STFU and go learn to make a whopper, or stock Marlboros.
 
Find me low cost housing in San Francisco. By low cost in this case I'll accept anything 1/3rd of median market value. Then try finding something closer to the national median of $203,800. In that or any other top 10 real estate market.

Median is the better number to use for housing markets. Average value would float and distort market realities more with extreme pricing swings found from bimodal distribution. Median would be the more solid and reflective value of the market as a whole. Real estate markets aren't measured by urban areas but rather metropolitan areas. In many cases they follow the same 5-10 county inclusions that marketing DMA's do.

We better get even with those "rich" people. There's a horrible problem that their taxation rate grew .09% less than their income rate! OMG! They paid .1% less in taxes than they earned! OMG OMG OMG! WTF THIS IS SO fuckING WRONG!
 
I agree with PAD this tax proposal doesn't make any sense.

The President doesn't want to raise the AMT, he wants to eliminate it. But since that will take away tons of revenue from the goverment their proposal to make up the shortfall is to increase the taxes on home ownership and health care for business.

In other words, we're going to stop a tax on the mega rich, and in exchange, increase the already exorborant costs of home buying and health care for the middle class already ensnared by the AMT.

thought I musta dmit I think your anger is misplaced. This entire tax proposal is perfectly in line with conservative economic theory. It's trickle down, pure and simple.

Unfortunately, supply side economics don't work.
 
I also agree with PAD. If you want to raise taxes, there are a million other ways that don't directly affect working people as much as this one does. Say, the Alternative Minimum Tax.....or perhaps the income tax.
 
Unfortunately the AMT is ensaring people that were never meant to pay it. I've seen some bizarre media examples of people being forced into it that clearly shouldn't have been. Fix it?

Allow personal exemptions under the AMT. This is not a preferential tax item that is used by wealthy people to zero out their tax. Disallowing personal exemptions under the AMT is the single most foolish decision Congress made in setting up this tax.

Allow itemized deductions that are not used by high-income taxpayers to achieve unfair tax savings. The chief concern here is the deduction for state and local taxes. People who pay these taxes should be allowed to deduct them under the AMT as well as the regular income tax.

Similarly, now that we have limitations on the home mortgage interest deduction there is no reason to limit that deduction under the AMT. It is simply ridiculous to provide a different floor for medical expense deductions under the AMT than under the regular income tax. Disallowing miscellaneous itemized deductions under the AMT has caused unfairness more often than it has captured tax from people who were the intended target of the AMT.

Allow the standard deduction under the AMT. If someone has income large enough to have AMT as an issue and they don't itemize deductions, it hardly seems likely to serve the purpose of the AMT to deny this relatively small deduction.

Fix the AMT exemption amount. Once we allow all the deductions described above, we can make do with a smaller AMT exemption amount. We still need an exemption, however, and it should be indexed for inflation. Furthermore, the exemption amount should not be phased out. Phasing out the exemption amount is a major cause of complexity and unfairness under the AMT.
 
I don't agree with PAD and his belief that trickle down theory works. But everyone who is suggesting that only the "upper middle class" or the right have 350k+ homes is flat out wrong. There's no way around it, you're wrong. Maybe not in your area, but, where I live, a 350k home is nothing to brag about, it is a run of the mill home. If you want one of those nice, larger homes be prepared to pay 450 or 500k+. There is no quick drop in price around here if you go away from the city for a while, the prices are consistent.


Middle class people do buy $500,000 homes. Are you going to try and explain away the fact that the median home value in San Francisco is $656,000, $627,000 in Orange County/Anaheim, $569,000 in San Diego, $470,000 in Los Angeles, $387,000 in Boston and $370,000 in D.C.? Median means half the houses sell for less, half sell for more in other words, it's smack dab in the middle of the real estate market. It's reflective of market prices in general.

Some areas have a disproportionate amount of wealthy people and that could drive the median price up. That's not the case in my area, but I'm not sure if the same can be said for some of the california areas. I can't see how you would expect a middle class family to be able to afford 600k+ houses, since I can't imagine that they would make that much more in that area.

If trickle down economics doesn't work why would any state care if BMW, Mercedes, Hyundai, Toyota or Nissan puts a $1,000,000,000 factory in their state or the one next door? I mean, after all, that investment won't create any jobs, revenue or benefit to the state will it. It can't, trickle down doesn't work. Likewise why would any city or state care if people moved out jobs, closed plants or operations? Trickle down doesn't work.

That doesn't really fit the trickle down theory. If toyota were to open more plants when they have more money available, then it would be working. Rich people invest, save etc. when they get money, rich companies often move overseas to increase profits. When those things take place, trickle down theory is doomed.
 
The middle class is buying these $600,000 homes in San Francisco. You need to understand there are thousands of mortgage products out there, not just 30 year fixed rate notes.

The LIBOR interest only loan may work like this. If you have a $500,000 mortgage with a 5% interest rate on a traditional 30 year mortgage loan your monthly payment would be $2,684. Now with an interest only mortgage that drops by half or more. The downside is you have zero equity in your home but your mortgage payment may be $1,200. The only financial upside you have is if the value of the property increases.

This is how truly middle class incomes and families are able to purchase $500,000 homes.
 
[quote name='alonzomourning23']I don't agree with PAD and his belief that trickle down theory works. But everyone who is suggesting that only the "upper middle class" or the right have 350k+ homes is flat out wrong. There's no way around it, you're wrong. Maybe not in your area, but, where I live, a 350k home is nothing to brag about, it is a run of the mill home. If you want one of those nice, larger homes be prepared to pay 450 or 500k+. There is no quick drop in price around here if you go away from the city for a while, the prices are consistent. [/QUOTE]

Maybe your specific area and California buck the trend, however, that certainly doesn't mean that it affects people nationwide in the same way.

[quote name='PittsburghAfterDark']This is how truly middle class incomes and families are able to purchase $500,000 homes.[/QUOTE]

By Being in debt for the rest of their life...or until they can dump the debt onto someone else. Most middle class families are unwilling to tie themself to a house that way, especially considering the turmoil the job market seems to be in.
 
In 2004, fully 50.4% of the mortgage loans issued for purchases of single-family homes in Georgia were to pay interest only. That made the Peach State No. 1 in the nation in its share of interest-only mortgages. But a whole bunch of other states were not far behind: California was second, at 47.1%, Colorado third, at 45.5%, Nevada fourth, at 44.7%, and the District of Columbia, fifth at 43.8%.

Nationwide, the share of mortgages that were interest-only shot up from 1.5% in 2001 to 6% in 2002, 13% in 2003, to 31% in 2004.

Link

Now you were saying the middle class won't put their money into interest only loans.... do go on.
 
[quote name='PittsburghAfterDark']In 2004, fully 50.4% of the mortgage loans issued for purchases of single-family homes in Georgia were to pay interest only. That made the Peach State No. 1 in the nation in its share of interest-only mortgages. But a whole bunch of other states were not far behind: California was second, at 47.1%, Colorado third, at 45.5%, Nevada fourth, at 44.7%, and the District of Columbia, fifth at 43.8%.

Nationwide, the share of mortgages that were interest-only shot up from 1.5% in 2001 to 6% in 2002, 13% in 2003, to 31% in 2004.

Link

Now you were saying the middle class won't put their money into interest only loans.... do go on.[/QUOTE]

That's truly frightening data, PAD. It does lend credence to the theory that the most recent housing boom was nothing but an investor-based bubble that will burst any moment, however.
 
[quote name='capitalist_mao']Maybe your specific area and California buck the trend, however, that certainly doesn't mean that it affects people nationwide in the same way.[/QUOTE]

You have new york, newark, boston, washington, san francisco, los angeles, san diego etc. metro areas that all clear 350k median per house. That's a sizeable chunk of the u.s. population.

This is why you shouldn't set blanket levels across the country, it's too diverse. It should allow for regional differences by setting different amounts for different areas.

edit: According to cnn/money I found my exact town, the median price here is $344,932, right on the dot. The largest (and one of, if not the most expensive) houses here sold a few years back for 450k to a good friend and former next door neighbor (they run a firm with major contracts, such as the big dig in boston, they started working out of their basement about 14 years ago). So it's not like it's top heavy with expensive homes.
 
Absolutely it's a disaster waiting to happen. Much of this boom is being driven by less than traditional financing. That's what happens in housing booms, the financing gets overstretched.

However this shows, clearly, that it is middle class families and incomes at the core of the boom. Despite traditional beliefs that most people cannot afford a $500,000 loan they can; with the right financial tools.

That's the point of this whole thread. While most people think a high value mortgage makes you "rich" it doesn't. In reality it means you're more or less paying rent on a home you "own" since you have zero home equity from principal payments, just an increased market value sense, and the only upside is if/when you sell the property above the closing or mortgage value.

The way home financing and purchasing is working now if you eliminate interest exemptions on homes above $350K you effectively kill the housing market. If you're tax exempt on every single dollar of an interest only mortgage 100% your housing costs are tax deductable.
 
With that in mind, PAD, I can see your point. I know very little about mortgages (as a grad student, I can't see into next week financially, much less buying a home); I had no idea that "interest-only" mortgages existed. If you hadn't mentioned the investment notions behind them, I'd have labeled people who get into them to be complete and utter buffoons (I'm not yet convinced that it is totally untrue, however).

Anyway, I understand your gripes now; I'd much rather see changes made to the AMT or roll back the two tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 before they changed the exemption on these kinds of mortgages (or, perhaps, instead of reducing the exemptions to those below $350,000, set it higher but below $1M, perhaps $700,000? I dunno). Anyway, kudos. I wish you were like this more often (and I remain convinced that you work in the realtor sector).
 
Interst only mortgages are really no different than rent payments with the upside that if the property increases in value you can profit when you sell or flip the property.

When you buy a house if you wish to make improvements kitchen, bath, carpeting, landscaping etc you can get estimates on the work and have that value rolled into the mortgage. So if your purchase price of the house is $300,000 you get bids for $50,000 in home improvements you can take out a $350,000 mortgage, pay for the work to be done, and then your mortgage reflects the value of the money borrowed not the purchase price of the house. This is extremely common financial practice in traditional and non-traditional mortages.

It's that aspect of home financing that can cause the trickle down effect on small business, independent contractors and genuinely middle class employees. If people can't roll home improvement projects into their mortgages, as a majority do now, the pain going downhill is quite real and potentially very severe.

BTW, I do not work in real estate. I was trained by Morgan Stanley as a financial advisor and worked for them for several years prior to going into business for myself.
 
[quote name='PittsburghAfterDark']If people can't roll home improvement projects into their mortgages, as a majority do now, the pain going downhill is quite real and potentially very severe.[/QUOTE]

That's not a realistic problem, though; as you argue, the real threat is the inability to deduct these expenses (which, although different from simply "not doing them," could have the same result).
 
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