China rising

MSI Magus

MSI Magus

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You cant turn to a politics or bussiness section anymore without being bombared with articles talking about how China is set to become the new world super power. Some people say this will happen as soon as 2016 while others say that there is another 30-40 years before it happens. Regardless we all can see China is rising and rising fast. Their economy, their military, their place on the world stage...they are showing time and time again they are here to stay.

That said China has a lot of issues facing it such as their aging population, the growing unrest amongst its rural population with policies that support their city dwellers, massive pollution, civil unrest over human rights issues, lots of hostile neighbors and a nation that will be heavily effected by Global Warming. China is a rising power, but I can not help but feel that with all these issues on the table they could fall just as fast as they have risen.

I am not saying I think China WILL fall, just that I think that they face enough big issues its perfectly possible. Thoughts?
 
A lot of that seemed to be based on the assumption that business in China will continue as usual. I think that as China grows it's people are going to get more and more sick of their government. If there ever is a rebellion in China against the government that will certainly change things as well, could derail China's rise to power. Then again, their government has a pretty iron-fisted hand on the people, I don't know if they'll ever have a free (or at least more free) society.
 
[quote name='Clak']A lot of that seemed to be based on the assumption that business in China will continue as usual. I think that as China grows it's people are going to get more and more sick of their government. If there ever is a rebellion in China against the government that will certainly change things as well, could derail China's rise to power. Then again, their government has a pretty iron-fisted hand on the people, I don't know if they'll ever have a free (or at least more free) society.[/QUOTE]

Exactly. I see China as a fast rising nation and a nation that there is a fair chance becomes the number 1 super power. However I also just feel that a lot of people creating a "bubble" of sorts with China in that they just see profit, profit, profit but are ignoring a lot of negative variables which could cause a huge deflation in Chinas economy and power. Any one of those negatives on their own is enough to derail them if not forever at least for several decades.
 
Well real estate is something that people have seen and called for a few years now. I hear people all the time saying they are waiting for Chinas real estate bubble to pop. However I think the idea of China itself largly being a bubble is interesting.

I mean more and more inflation is becoming a real problem in China and more and more workers are demanding higher and higher rates. At some point businesses are going to start taking their business from China and relocating it in Africa, India or someplace else. With this being the case China as a nation itself could experience a bubble effect where money was being pumped to them and suddenly it stops and they pop. As I said I am def not an expert on this and its just a theory, but I truly believe that even if China does not "pop" that there are enough negative variables in this equation that they at some point are going to suffer some serious deflation.
 
The problem as I see it is that they're completely ignoring human rights issues and only worrying about power. The problem with that is that they'll eventually have to deal with the human rights issues. They simply can't go on forever as a totalitarian regime. Unlike most of NK, the Chinese aren't completely in the dark about the outside world. If their grip on power on the world stage depends on the government's grip on the people, that may crumble eventually.

edit- And population wise, India is on course to overtake China.
 
The Yuan just broke through 6.5 per dollar today. The first time since 1993.

There have been increasing calls that China is due for a sharp slowdown, as soon as 2013. You simply cannot take 50% of your GDP and continue to invest it in to your infrastructure without having overcapacity become an issue.
 
1940-1970 America?

If China is to become the #1 by 2016 it won't be by their actions alone. We'll have to do something stupid (so basically stay on our current path) to help them out. Of course it won't help if foreign markets start dumping the USD but that's another matter all together.
 
[quote name='MSI Magus']Well real estate is something that people have seen and called for a few years now. I hear people all the time saying they are waiting for Chinas real estate bubble to pop. However I think the idea of China itself largly being a bubble is interesting.

I mean more and more inflation is becoming a real problem in China and more and more workers are demanding higher and higher rates. At some point businesses are going to start taking their business from China and relocating it in Africa, India or someplace else. With this being the case China as a nation itself could experience a bubble effect where money was being pumped to them and suddenly it stops and they pop. As I said I am def not an expert on this and its just a theory, but I truly believe that even if China does not "pop" that there are enough negative variables in this equation that they at some point are going to suffer some serious deflation.[/QUOTE]

The problem with Africa and India is that they dont have the infrastructure China has right now. I mean with India they got power outage at a major airport. That kind of thing isn't doing to help. The trend with China is likely move inland to keep the cost down.
 
[quote name='62t']The problem with Africa and India is that they dont have the infrastructure China has right now. I mean with India they got power outage at a major airport. That kind of thing isn't doing to help. The trend with China is likely move inland to keep the cost down.[/QUOTE]

True but if Chinese wages keep raising at the rate they are it will most likely be cheaper to build infrastructure in those nations then to keep paying the Chinese wages. We have done it before and will do it again. I mean it should say it all that China is investing in Africa while we are investing in them.....

Edit - I also would not be suprised to see US companies investing more in places closer to us as well such as Mexico or parts of South America. To be frank I am surprised we have not seen more of it already.
 
[quote name='MSI Magus']True but if Chinese wages keep raising at the rate they are it will most likely be cheaper to build infrastructure in those nations then to keep paying the Chinese wages. We have done it before and will do it again. I mean it should say it all that China is investing in Africa while we are investing in them.....

Edit - I also would not be suprised to see US companies investing more in places closer to us as well such as Mexico or parts of South America. To be frank I am surprised we have not seen more of it already.[/QUOTE]

Wages are not as high as you think they are in China, despite "reform".

According to research published in the Monthly Labor Review of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics in April 2009, compensation of Chinese manufacturing workers was only $0.81 per hour in 2006 - just 2.7 percent of comparable costs in the US, 3.4 percent of that in Japan, and 2.2 percent of compensation rates in Europe.

$0.81 per hour.

Think about that for a minute and compare it to US, Japan, Europe, or any of the developed world. China has a LONG way to go to close the gap, which is why you won't see any manufacturers rushing to move operations anytime soon.

Even if their wages had increased 25% per year, since 2006 (which they haven't), their hourly wage would be around $1.80. So instead of being at 2.7% of the cost of an American worker, they might be at 4%. Again, you see why there is no rush to move.
 
I honestly have no idea what will happen with China. It seems as if they're overlooking a lot of problems (namely with the environment and its people) in order attain (what seems like) short term growth. Whether or not they can solve them is a mystery.
 
[quote name='mtxbass1']Wages are not as high as you think they are in China, despite "reform".

According to research published in the Monthly Labor Review of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics in April 2009, compensation of Chinese manufacturing workers was only $0.81 per hour in 2006 - just 2.7 percent of comparable costs in the US, 3.4 percent of that in Japan, and 2.2 percent of compensation rates in Europe.

$0.81 per hour.

Think about that for a minute and compare it to US, Japan, Europe, or any of the developed world. China has a LONG way to go to close the gap, which is why you won't see any manufacturers rushing to move operations anytime soon.

Even if their wages had increased 25% per year, since 2006 (which they haven't), their hourly wage would be around $1.80. So instead of being at 2.7% of the cost of an American worker, they might be at 4%. Again, you see why there is no rush to move.[/QUOTE]

It is not about where they are now as much as where they are heading. Slowly we are seeing wages creep up and we are seeing workers demanding better payment and treatment in general. Those types of things mixed with the rising price of oil(which ships burn massive amounts of shipping things from China to the US)are going to make an impact. I am not saying overnight we are going to see $10 an hour wages in China, just that they are starting on a road that will slow their economic growth.

Two more articles that were posted today relating to this China/Economy topic
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/30/business/global/30yuan.html?ref=business
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/29/business/global/29truckers.html?ref=business
 
[quote name='MSI Magus']True but if Chinese wages keep raising at the rate they are it will most likely be cheaper to build infrastructure in those nations then to keep paying the Chinese wages. We have done it before and will do it again. I mean it should say it all that China is investing in Africa while we are investing in them.....

Edit - I also would not be suprised to see US companies investing more in places closer to us as well such as Mexico or parts of South America. To be frank I am surprised we have not seen more of it already.[/QUOTE]

Why build up infrastructure in another country when the Chinese government is doing it for free? Inland China is largely undeveloped and thats were they are going to go to keep the cost down. Plus China is dealing with countries like Iran that we are just ignoring. China doesnt care about your human rights record and open them up with a lot more countries. China is getting along with everyone aside from India.
 
[quote name='62t']Why build up infrastructure in another country when the Chinese government is doing it for free? Inland China is largely undeveloped and thats were they are going to go to keep the cost down. Plus China is dealing with countries like Iran that we are just ignoring. China doesnt care about your human rights record and open them up with a lot more countries. China is getting along with everyone aside from India.[/QUOTE]

Many reasons. As I said if you take rising costs of labor add in it being ever more expensive to ship things back and forth between China and the US and then finally add in any sort of unrest/instabilty in that nation and you have one big disaster waiting to happen. THAT would be the reason to do business elsewhere.
 
Frankly, I would like to see China fail. I think they are the biggest threat on the planet right now. Much more dangerous than Iran, Afghanistan, or any other MidEast country. We don't have a carrot to dangle in front of them and they know it, so when we say stop abusing your citizens, they reply with, "No", while we sheepishly walk away with our tail between our legs and say, "Hmm, good point. Alrighty then".

They're basically like N.Korea only with waaay more power. Maybe we could arm the Japanese and Taiwanese and let them fight the battle someday, but that sounds like the recipe for disaster that we've cooked many times over in other parts of the world.

Maybe they will have that political upheaval, but I have no idea how well their citizens are armed. We've seen what happens in a country like Libya when citizens try to take on the government and are clearly outmatched. Other countries have to get involved. Will the UN put it's nose in there at risk of having it cutoff, and will the US go at it alone? Lots of questions and concerns about China. After Israel, they're also probably the county with the most spies in America. Bad things a-comin'.
 
[quote name='MSI Magus']Many reasons. As I said if you take rising costs of labor add in it being ever more expensive to ship things back and forth between China and the US and then finally add in any sort of unrest/instabilty in that nation and you have one big disaster waiting to happen. THAT would be the reason to do business elsewhere.[/QUOTE]

Different is Chinese government has the money to build roads in Africa to open new market. US government doesn't.

[quote name='berzirk']Frankly, I would like to see China fail. I think they are the biggest threat on the planet right now. Much more dangerous than Iran, Afghanistan, or any other MidEast country. We don't have a carrot to dangle in front of them and they know it, so when we say stop abusing your citizens, they reply with, "No", while we sheepishly walk away with our tail between our legs and say, "Hmm, good point. Alrighty then".

They're basically like N.Korea only with waaay more power. Maybe we could arm the Japanese and Taiwanese and let them fight the battle someday, but that sounds like the recipe for disaster that we've cooked many times over in other parts of the world.

Maybe they will have that political upheaval, but I have no idea how well their citizens are armed. We've seen what happens in a country like Libya when citizens try to take on the government and are clearly outmatched. Other countries have to get involved. Will the UN put it's nose in there at risk of having it cutoff, and will the US go at it alone? Lots of questions and concerns about China. After Israel, they're also probably the county with the most spies in America. Bad things a-comin'.[/QUOTE]

A failed China is the worst thing that could happen to US. Just look at how much problem the current Middle East situation is causing us.
 
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[quote name='MSI Magus']It is not about where they are now as much as where they are heading. Slowly we are seeing wages creep up and we are seeing workers demanding better payment and treatment in general. Those types of things mixed with the rising price of oil(which ships burn massive amounts of shipping things from China to the US)are going to make an impact. I am not saying overnight we are going to see $10 an hour wages in China, just that they are starting on a road that will slow their economic growth.

Two more articles that were posted today relating to this China/Economy topic
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/30/business/global/30yuan.html?ref=business
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/29/business/global/29truckers.html?ref=business[/QUOTE]

Labor rates in China have risen more since their "reforms" process than any other time in Chinese history. It's still trivial compared to an overinflated GDP and their infrastructure bubble. It will not be cause for China's downfall, you can bet on that. Their problem lies with a consumer that has little to no purchasing power.

When "reform" took place, there was an understanding that wages would increase every other year. When there was downward pressure on exports back in 08-09, the Chinese government put these increases to the side. What they are doing now is simply playing catch up to previous hikes that were supposed to take place.

Wage hikes, or not, China has not lost much (if any) edge in their competitive advantage and I highly doubt that will change anytime soon.
 
[quote name='berzirk']Frankly, I would like to see China fail. I think they are the biggest threat on the planet right now. Much more dangerous than Iran, Afghanistan, or any other MidEast country. We don't have a carrot to dangle in front of them and they know it, so when we say stop abusing your citizens, they reply with, "No", while we sheepishly walk away with our tail between our legs and say, "Hmm, good point. Alrighty then".

They're basically like N.Korea only with waaay more power. Maybe we could arm the Japanese and Taiwanese and let them fight the battle someday, but that sounds like the recipe for disaster that we've cooked many times over in other parts of the world.

Maybe they will have that political upheaval, but I have no idea how well their citizens are armed. We've seen what happens in a country like Libya when citizens try to take on the government and are clearly outmatched. Other countries have to get involved. Will the UN put it's nose in there at risk of having it cutoff, and will the US go at it alone? Lots of questions and concerns about China. After Israel, they're also probably the county with the most spies in America. Bad things a-comin'.[/QUOTE]

No offense bud, but no one should want any country to fail. Any of the G20 nations failing would have a catastrophic effect on the entire world. You do realize that if China fails, they will take down the rest of the world with it, right?
 
[quote name='mtxbass1']Labor rates in China have risen more since their "reforms" process than any other time in Chinese history. It's still trivial compared to an overinflated GDP and their infrastructure bubble. It will not be cause for China's downfall, you can bet on that. Their problem lies with a consumer that has little to no purchasing power.

When "reform" took place, there was an understanding that wages would increase every other year. When there was downward pressure on exports back in 08-09, the Chinese government put these increases to the side. What they are doing now is simply playing catch up to previous hikes that were supposed to take place.

Wage hikes, or not, China has not lost much (if any) edge in their competitive advantage and I highly doubt that will change anytime soon.[/QUOTE]

I never said it would be Chinas downfall. I just said its one of many headaches they have on their plate that could lead to a downfall or at least decrease in the strength of their economy. Currently we have all these people predicting these big things for China. In this topic I was arguing not that they are going to fall(though its very possible)but that my feeling is they are going to slow down sometime in the next 5-20 years and stay the number 2 for awhile(or permanently based on how they handle these challenges).
 
[quote name='XxFuRy2Xx']I honestly have no idea what will happen with China. It seems as if they're overlooking a lot of problems (namely with the environment and its people) in order attain (what seems like) short term growth. Whether or not they can solve them is a mystery.[/QUOTE]

for being so anti-communist, those republicans sure are an awful lot like China aren't they? Sacrifice everything for short term gain, figure out how to sweep it under the rug later (gay marriage, oooh a shiny!) and then do it all over again...

MTX - "Labor rates in China have risen more since their "reforms" process than any other time in Chinese history. It's still trivial compared to an overinflated GDP and their infrastructure bubble. It will not be cause for China's downfall, you can bet on that. Their problem lies with a consumer that has little to no purchasing power."

Thing of it is, China's domestic consumers may have little purchasing power, but the worldwide demand for cheap plastic shit gives them foreign consumers that are willing to pay anything as long as they have more cheap plastic shit to buy.
 
[quote name='MSI Magus']I never said it would be Chinas downfall. I just said its one of many headaches they have on their plate that could lead to a downfall or at least decrease in the strength of their economy. Currently we have all these people predicting these big things for China. In this topic I was arguing not that they are going to fall(though its very possible)but that my feeling is they are going to slow down sometime in the next 5-20 years and stay the number 2 for awhile(or permanently based on how they handle these challenges).[/QUOTE]

It's common sense that they are going to slow down. You cannot continue with an artificial GDP of 9%+ without justification. It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when and based on current projections, the when is rapidly approaching.

[quote name='nasum']

MTX - "Labor rates in China have risen more since their "reforms" process than any other time in Chinese history. It's still trivial compared to an overinflated GDP and their infrastructure bubble. It will not be cause for China's downfall, you can bet on that. Their problem lies with a consumer that has little to no purchasing power."

Thing of it is, China's domestic consumers may have little purchasing power, but the worldwide demand for cheap plastic shit gives them foreign consumers that are willing to pay anything as long as they have more cheap plastic shit to buy.[/QUOTE]

A lot of people have no clue that 50% of China's GDP is based on internal infrastructure building. They are using this to hide the fact that China itself has very poor internal consumption. Worldwide demand through exports only accounts for about 27% of GDP. Even if worldwide demand doubled (which it won't), it still won't make up for the fact that China is overspending on infrastructure and creating an internal crisis.
 
The Chinese government doesn't have near the control of it's people that the NK government does. I mean that will squash dissidents, but they have dissidents. How often do you hear about some protest happening in NK and people being arrested and carted off? Besides that, China has waaaay more trade with the outside world. I mean we could go on, but why?
 
Wasn't it said that Japan would overpower the US in the 80s? Huge spirals upward also tend to bring huge spirals downward. It'll be interesting to continue watching China's development in the next five to ten years.
 
You can tell whether or not/the degree to which a country is a first world nation almost solely on the level of environmental destruction happening. In particular - deforestation. Forests have largely stabilized in the US, Western Europe and Japan, for instance. However, this is only remotely possible because the developed world exports that deforestation to other countries. I'm not sure that the planet can actually tolerate the additional number of people living the ridiculous 1st world lifestyle. Maybe they will simply rise in the place of the US as our free market, supply side ideology continues to sink us.

Historically, economic freedom and political freedom travel closely together. Given the impossibility of something like democracy in the Chinese workplace (unions), its going to be very hard to build a lasting middle class. There are 3 ways to build a middle class, as its not a natural thing to have.

1) Looting other countries/regions - e.g. When Western Europe was exploiting the resources from the newly founded Americas -> The Enlightenment

2) Dramatically reduce the work force which increases the cost of labor - e.g. The Black Death -> The Renaissance

3) Liberal policies like progressive taxation, protecting labor, protecting environment, etc. - e.g. 1940-1980 in the US.

You could argue that China is pulling #1 on the US economically. #2 would require another mass death event, which could theoretically happen as we stress the world's resources and get into wars about it. Democracy is required for a full, long term implementation of #3.
 
The other day on NPR they were talking about about the global population and it's strain on resources. The guy they had on said that basically, even now, we need 1.5 planets worth of resources to continue the way we are now. As populations grow and become more affluent, that's going to increase. Basically we're outgrowing our planet. This is why things like recycling are so important.

I think most people don't even realize that we have a finite amount of water on earth. That even when it rains, that's just water vapor returning to the ground where it was before it was turned into water vapor. There is no new water, to put it the way the guy on NPR did, we're drinking dinosaur piss.
 
[quote name='Clak']The other day on NPR they were talking about about the global population and it's strain on resources. The guy they had on said that basically, even now, we need 1.5 planets worth of resources to continue the way we are now. As populations grow and become more affluent, that's going to increase. Basically we're outgrowing our planet. This is why things like recycling are so important.

I think most people don't even realize that we have a finite amount of water on earth. That even when it rains, that's just water vapor returning to the ground where it was before it was turned into water vapor. There is no new water, to put it the way the guy on NPR did, we're drinking dinosaur piss.[/QUOTE]

The water thing pisses me off immensely. Its one of the most important fucking resources we have and its so basic and so easy to protect...yet people are just as wasteful as can be with it. Ill be the first to admit I take long showers and baths frequently, but I also only flush my toilet after a deuce, do not water my lawn and support and push hard for rebuilding our sewer systems that way our water is recycled after use(something that most people gross out about). It drives me nuts going for a walk with my dogs and seeing all the jackasses with multiple sprinklers on every day and other wasteful stuff like the guy I know that runs a fountain 24/7 that trickles in to his yard vs reusing the water. Your right too that people do not realize its a problem, every time I bring the issue up people roll their eyes and act like I am paranoid. During the winter people joke about global warming and how its nice its making for these weird winters and people get all weirded out when I point out that snow replenishes our water tables. And people REALLY wig out when they find out that as I said above we dont flush when we pee which is such a minor minor thing.
 
Well the funny thing is that, as I said above, all that water is being recycled anyway really. Not by us, but the planet itself. The water in that evian bottle was once the pee in some creature's bladder. Tell that to soemone and watch their reaction. People seriously don't know what rain is. They think we somehow get new, fresh water when it rains. This stuff has been on the planet since before our species was here.
 
[quote name='Clak']Well the funny thing is that, as I said above, all that water is being recycled anyway really. Not by us, but the planet itself. The water in that evian bottle was once the pee in some creature's bladder. Tell that to soemone and watch their reaction. People seriously don't know what rain is. They think we somehow get new, fresh water when it rains. This stuff has been on the planet since before our species was here.[/QUOTE]

I was specifically talking about new age sewage plants that recycle our sewage water in to fresh drinking water. People wigg out when you suggest that we turn sewage in to drinking water. They think it means they will be drinking other peoples...heh you know!
 
Well yeah, I'm sure a lot of people would freak out about that like they do when astronauts tell someone how they recycle their pee. My point is just that it doesn't matter if we have those sewage plants or not, it's still being recycled. I can't imagine how many times the water supply on earth has been turned over.
 
[quote name='Clak']The Chinese government doesn't have near the control of it's people that the NK government does. I mean that will squash dissidents, but they have dissidents. How often do you hear about some protest happening in NK and people being arrested and carted off? Besides that, China has waaaay more trade with the outside world. I mean we could go on, but why?[/QUOTE]

So because we don't hear of reports of protests, they're different. Hunh. It's a smaller country obviously, with China having vast rural areas, but don't think for a second that if there were an uprising that was deemed worthy of response, they'd level villages.
 
[quote name='MSI Magus']The water thing pisses me off immensely. Its one of the most important fucking resources we have and its so basic and so easy to protect...yet people are just as wasteful as can be with it. Ill be the first to admit I take long showers and baths frequently, but I also only flush my toilet after a deuce, do not water my lawn and support and push hard for rebuilding our sewer systems that way our water is recycled after use(something that most people gross out about). It drives me nuts going for a walk with my dogs and seeing all the jackasses with multiple sprinklers on every day and other wasteful stuff like the guy I know that runs a fountain 24/7 that trickles in to his yard vs reusing the water. Your right too that people do not realize its a problem, every time I bring the issue up people roll their eyes and act like I am paranoid. During the winter people joke about global warming and how its nice its making for these weird winters and people get all weirded out when I point out that snow replenishes our water tables. And people REALLY wig out when they find out that as I said above we dont flush when we pee which is such a minor minor thing.[/QUOTE]

ya, not gonna lie, the one thing that stood out was only flushing on your number 2s.
 
[quote name='berzirk']So because we don't hear of reports of protests, they're different. Hunh. It's a smaller country obviously, with China having vast rural areas, but don't think for a second that if there were an uprising that was deemed worthy of response, they'd level villages.[/QUOTE]
Another thing, most Chinese don't seem to worship their government. On the other hand, Kim Jong-il is literally worshiped in NK. People thank his likeness as if he were a god to them. There was actually a National Geographic special up for a while on netflix, may still be, that followed a doctor and his crew into NK as he did eye surgeries for people. I'm not kidding when I say Kim is worshiped like a god.
 
[quote name='Clak']Another thing, most Chinese don't seem to worship their government. On the other hand, Kim Jong-il is literally worshiped in NK. People thank his likeness as if he were a god to them. There was actually a National Geographic special up for a while on netflix, may still be, that followed a doctor and his crew into NK as he did eye surgeries for people. I'm not kidding when I say Kim is worshiped like a god.[/QUOTE]

I haven't seen it, so I don't doubt it's true, but you don't suppose it was one of those things like how Gaddafi tells us all the Libyans love him, when in real life, I've never met a Libyan (out of several hundred) that would do anything less than piss on him given the opportunity.
 
You have to understand that NK is extremely isolated in the world. Like an island in the sea for all intents and purposes. The government controls all the information they get, and you can be sure that what they get is "we're good, they're bad". So yes, I do beleive that at least most, if not all North Koreans do genuinely worship Kim. Though it's for a lack of information mostly.
 
I've watched that National Geographic North Korea documentary on Netflix. It's pretty disturbing to see how the people are forced to live, and those were just the "special" ones hand picked to live in the capital of North Korea itself.

In my opinion, which is mostly based on the documentary and other tidbits, North Korea seems so much worse than China. The people are starving, there are very large concentration camps, and entire families can be whisked away if a single member shows any dissent. Yet still, the people shown in the documentary worship him, either out of fear or some other psychological effect of those conditions.

I think it speaks for itself that people try to escape – at risk of death for them and their families still there – from North Korea to China (and sometimes further to Mongolia), but you never hear of Chinese people trying to enter North Korea.


Still, North Korea is like a mirror. What we see from our side and what its citizens see are completely different things for the most part.
 
China seems more like the US of the 19th Century. All the money and the power in the hands of a few people and a rural population that distrusts the growing cities. Environmental controls are minimal if not non-existent and every bit of society is closely regulated.

How do they break out of it and become like us? They could get lucky and win a few local wars and then be on the winning side of a global conflict. It's not like the US was inherently "good" on it's path to being a super power.
 
Well a lot of their rise will be determined by how quickly they can advance in education and the sciences. How quickly can they move from their industrial revolution, to become a world leader in technology, sciences, medicine etc. to move on from being mainly a manufacturing super power?

Odds are they can do it a lot faster than us. With the control their communist government has over the economy, there's much fewer limits on spending on education etc. than in the US where it takes an act of god to raise taxes or even pass a local levy to raise funds for the school system.
 
[quote name='dmaul1114']Well a lot of their rise will be determined by how quickly they can advance in education and the sciences. How quickly can they move from their industrial revolution, to become a world leader in technology, sciences, medicine etc. to move on from being mainly a manufacturing super power?

Odds are they can do it a lot faster than us. With the control their communist government has over the economy, there's much fewer limits on spending on education etc. than in the US where it takes an act of god to raise taxes or even pass a local levy to raise funds for the school system.[/QUOTE]
Did China ever deal with the problem of educational plagiarism? Especially within government and college level professors?
 
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