Do you think we are heading towards a recession?

Let's see...

- Oil trading for over $90 a barrel which means higher Gas and Home Heating Prices through the winter.

- The Home Housing Market in decline with record houses on the market unsold.

- Rising tensions with Iran + The ongoing war.

Yeah. I think it's safe to use the "R" word. The only thing we need now is a market "Crash" and we are there... oops. Just used the "C" word.
 
Let me bust out my magic orb that can predict the future..
8Ballin.jpg
The orb has spoken.
 
Perhaps, but I doubt it will be anything substantial.

According to the bureau, "a recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity, and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades."
Click to expand...
I think retail sales won't break any records this holiday season, but I doubt they will be very slow either. It's really the housing market that is driving this recent downturn in the economy. Otherwise things look rather stable. I'm no economic professional, but I stay well-informed of the business news.

I do find it funny that the CNN article you posted also contains information on Bush's approval rating, as if that has anything to do with the economy. They also fail to note that most polls show that Congress has a lower approval rating than the president. All that tells me is that most Americans don't think most anyone in goverment is doing a job worth a damn. I think they are too busy fighting amungst themselves to really give a fuck about the economy other than to blame it on each other.
 
no, IMO we are not heading to a recession. We are having a record year, and we make gift products, which is usually hit hardest when consumers purse strings tighten up. Yes oil pricing in really high.

Yes the housing market is fucked up (due in large part to poor lending practices, and idiots taking out arms with really low rates to buy a house they otherwise couldn't afford and then got fucked when the rates went up). One of the biggest issues with the housing market is the stubborness of the sellers to not drop the prices. A fair amount of them bought when the market was booming a few years ago. Now they are in a house they can't afford or some other reason came up and they are trying to make money off the sale of there home. My brother bought a big house right in the middle of the housing boom, got relocated several states away and refuses to drop the infllated price on his house. The house has been on the market for 6 months, and since none of the other houses in the development for sale have dropped there price, he doesn't feel he should. It is too bad, that none of the other houses are selling either.

With all that bad news that is affecting the consumers wallet, people are still spending. No we won't have a record holiday most likely, but I don't think we will step back from last year. You need 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth for that to happen.
 
it's alright, Japan has been in a recession forever and they're doing fine.
 
[quote name='ryanbph']One of the biggest issues with the housing market is the stubborness of the sellers to not drop the prices. A fair amount of them bought when the market was booming a few years ago. Now they are in a house they can't afford or some other reason came up and they are trying to make money off the sale of there home. My brother bought a big house right in the middle of the housing boom, got relocated several states away and refuses to drop the infllated price on his house. The house has been on the market for 6 months, and since none of the other houses in the development for sale have dropped there price, he doesn't feel he should. It is too bad, that none of the other houses are selling either.
[/quote]
I came VERY close to buying a house back around the same time, mostly because I was being pushed towards it by a "friend" who just got his realtor's liscence and was looking for clients. I am so glad I listened to my consciousness (and my girlfriend) now because I would probably be in a similar situation, stuck with a house I couldn't afford and unwilling to sell it without making some profit. And I'm sure if I was in that situation, I'd be bitching about the economy too, instead of blaming myself for being an idiot.
 
[quote name='Apossum']it's alright, Japan has been in a recession forever and they're doing fine.[/QUOTE]

What're you talking about? They grope women on trains!

Depravity.
 
That would be a depression, a severe recession.

[quote name='Punk_Raven']I'm a complete idiot, but this doens't mean everyone's going to be poor and it's going to be like the 30s right?:cry::cry:[/quote]
 
I absolutely think we're headed towards a recession.

Let's look at the way things are:
1.Most big Blue and White Collar companies that pay a living wage have moved out of this country to either India or China. Most of the customer service has even moved out to India.
2.Any decent amount of wealth left in the economy Bush and his business friends, including some of Democrats I'm sure, have saw fit to use the Iraq war as a robber baron attempt to rob this country blind. You see besides Oil let's look at the private contractors that cost most likely the same as the army if not less with a lower standard of quality as well I'm sure.
3.The only big industry keeping this country afloat artificially, the housing boom, looks to be going bust from what has been said. Also consider it may be looking like some of these home loan companies are just getting by or going bust.
This is all driving one thing, us toward the Amero. Flush the dollar's worth down the toilet enough and people will sadly embrace the bullshit known as the Amero and having our economy tied in with Mexico and Canada. I forgot to add flushing our living standard as well.
You as Americans can either do one of three things: 1.Reinvest in the economy, support Co-Op's, set up Co-Op's, Support not for profit companies. Start up a for profit company that loudly declares "Made In the USA" and keep it up, being a staunch supporter or products being made in the USA.
2.Get as much of your wealth into certain companies before the dollar busts, keeping yourself from receiving as much hurt as others.
3.Do a combination of the two.
 
Despite people's strange negative feelings towards the economy, it's actually going pretty well. Unemployment is still very low, the stock market recently hit record highs, GDP is growing at a good clip. Yes, housing is in a bit of a downturn at the moment, but I don't see how people are so quick to yell "recession" myself.
 
Yes, recession is just around the corner but I fear it might be a bit more dire than before. Partly due to Asian investors pulling $163 billion out of the US into other foreign investments ($52 billion in T-bonds alone by Japan ($23bn), China ($14.2bn), and Taiwan ($5bn)). And since the US needs about $70 billion/per month alone in capital inflow to cover its deficit, that's a big chunk. That, in turn devalues the dollar even moreso than before as there is a mass exodus of foreign capital. Like it or not, the US has a symbiotic relationship w/ its foreign counterparts (especially how China & Japan hold about 47% alone of foreign owned debt) and it grossly affects how we can do business. Hell, I haven't even put in my misgivings on operating on a fiat currency like the dollar. I'd say the few silver linings in this is that US export businesses will pick up and many overvalued real estate properties will decrease and I can buy them for pennies on the euro.
 
Heading tword a recession? We're already here. Reality hasn't hit the stock & housing markets yet. They're both in denial. The main reason oil is so high (It's flirting with $90 a barrel when it was like $35 -$40 6-7 yrs ago) is that it's pegged to the dollar. Since the dollar has been falling like a rock (in contrast to the Euro) oil has to rise in price to keep making the same amount of profit.


Main reasons for the dollar's fall
1) We have 9 TRILLION in debt. Therefore, other countries are less willing to loan to us. Countries that do still lend charge a higher rate because of our outstanding debt.

2) The 'Fed' is pumping more money into the cash markets (they've done this twice since August. While this in itself seems harmless to the untrained eye, remember that we ditched the 'gold standard' back when Nixon was president. So we basically printed more IOU's.

Basically, instead of making more kool-aid, we just adding more water to the existing pitcher and diluting the taste as a result. Sure it looks like kool-aid still but it tastes like ass.

3) Agricultural commodities are also up to record highs (mainly corn but soybean as well). This is because of the higher use of these crops to make the 'eco-friendly' ethanol (which BTW is subsidized by YOU the American Taxpayer). This in turn makes less of these crops available to feed livestock. So this makes beef, chicken, milk all the more expensive just to get by.

4) Our economy is 2/3rd consumer driven. With people now not able to take any equity out of thier home and use it like an ATM card, consumer spending has nowhere to go but down. Pay raises are an abysmal 2-3% for most people and healthcare costs continues to rise and employers will only absorb so much.

In Summary, buckle up. It's gonna be a bumpy ride.:cold:
 
[quote name='CappyCobra']2) The 'Fed' is pumping more money into the cash markets (they've done this twice since August. While this in itself seems harmless to the untrained eye, remember that we ditched the 'gold standard' back when Nixon was president. So we basically printed more IOU's.

Basically, instead of making more kool-aid, we just adding more water to the existing pitcher and diluting the taste as a result. Sure it looks like kool-aid still but it tastes like ass.[/quote]

That's the fiat currency system in summary... a house of cards waiting for a slight wind and unfortunately Katrina is figuratively headed right for us.:cry:
 
[quote name='jaykrue']I'd say the few silver linings in this is that US export businesses will pick up and many overvalued real estate properties will decrease and I can buy them for pennies on the euro.[/quote]
I find that humorous and sad all at the same time:cry:
The 'almighty dollar' got caught using steroids and now it's time to pay the piper.

At least you didn't use the Canadian 'loonie'. I think that the US dollar should adopt that nickname and Canada relinquish it. Anybody holding US dollars is freaking looney:lol:

This shitstorm is not going to be limited to just the US. If China keeps artificially pegging the yuan to the US Dollar, we're dragging them right into the mud. If the Chinese DO break off the dollar and value it independantly, it's value should rise therefore causing thier products to be more expensive in the states.

This will at least close the trade deficit to China as it should spur to buy more North American goods (notice I didn't say just US goods). If this happens, all three countries (Canada, Mexico & US) should rise. My guess would be that Mexico has more to benefit from this move but all should make out.
 
[quote name='CappyCobra']I find that humorous and sad all at the same time:cry:
The 'almighty dollar' got caught using steroids and now it's time to pay the piper.

At least you didn't use the Canadian 'loonie'. I think that the US dollar should adopt that nickname and Canada relinquish it. Anybody holding US dollars is freaking looney:lol:

This shitstorm is not going to be limited to just the US. If China keeps artificially pegging the yuan to the US Dollar, we're dragging them right into the mud. If the Chinese DO break off the dollar and value it independantly, it's value should rise therefore causing thier products to be more expensive in the states.

This will at least close the trade deficit to China as it should spur to buy more North American goods (notice I didn't say just US goods). If this happens, all three countries (Canada, Mexico & US) should rise. My guess would be that Mexico has more to benefit from this move but all should make out.[/quote]

I wouldn't say we're dragging China in the mud so much as I think it's a economic weapon they're flouting to further encourage the devaluing of the dollar as well as a political blackmail to subvert its quality assurance failures as well as conflicts in its global policy, particularly toward Taiwan.

I don't know how Mexico would react. Mexico still has a high disparity between rich and poor; the middle class is practically non-existent. Could a devalued dollar cause the Mexican peso to rise along w/ the collective buying power of Mexico? Maybe, but I suspect the Mexican peso would not rise enough to form a middle class due to Mexican corporations' monopolistic practices, particularly Telmex owned by Carlos 'Slim' Helú. I think it'll just make him even richer (not that he needs it :roll: )
 
Yes, the housing market isn't doing badly, it's crashing. The stock market, while hitting new highs, is only 2,000 pts. higher then it was in 2000. Yes, unemployment is down*, but 'underemployment' is at an all time high. We've got the slowest personal income growth in a generation, 9 trillion in debt (and growing!) and we're heading into winter with oil prices set to go upwards of $100 a barrel before the year is out (it was $10 in 1998). A recession if we're lucky, which we haven't been in a long, long time.

* Can someone explain this logical conundrum? If the republicans like to tout how low the unemployment numbers are, how can they say the mexicans are stealing American jobs?
 
Mexican job stealing is likely to take this topic off topic into an immigration debate, so I'll leave that alone.

My opinion is yeah, we are in a recession. I am not an economist and do not really know whether this is just part of a cycle and nothing to be concerned about or a serious concern. I know my father took alot of his stocks out of the market. It is a pyschological game: (1) people get scared of a recession and take their money out and spend less (2) the market suffers because of people's fears and gets worse, (3) Hillary Clinton or Guilliani starts WWIII to boost the economy.

I dont have a crystal ball and the best economists in the world are the ones who will commit to a prediciton the least. The market is a living breathing animal (hate to sound like Andrew Ryan) that corrects itself, or not, and is almost completely unpredictable. All we can do is hope.

Off-topic: The Canadian dollar is called the Looney becasue there is a Looney duck on it and its actually a coin.
 
[quote name='Cheese']* Can someone explain this logical conundrum? If the republicans like to tout how low the unemployment numbers are, how can they say the mexicans are stealing American jobs?[/quote]

Sure. Usually these reports don't mention the type of jobs involved - just that Americans are employed. I suspect that there are a lot more white collar jobs in which Americans are employed in, thus explaining how low unemployment is but you have Mexicans taking the jobs many Americans wouldn't bother due to better opportunities and education qualifications such day laborer, housekeeper, etc. It's a bit of a stereotypical description above but the only Mexicans I know that have IT jobs (or any other white collar jobs) are the ones who were actually born in the US and were raised in the US school system.
 
IMO, the usd is undervalued. 5 - 7 or so years ago it was over vauled, and it took a hit and was put back in its place. But wtf is keeping the euro afloat. It doesn't have any value behind it. European contries, while not owing anywhere what we do, are in just as shitty of a hole that we are (scalable). They export very little, so what is keeping the euro so strong besides the hype of a unified currency in europe. IMO, a couple of years from now, the euro will drop like a brick tossed into the ocean, much like the over valued nasdaq. There is nothing to support the value of the euro as a currency besides the blind faith. (people were investing into stock companies in the late 90's, on the hype they would do something. For years the companies were losing money and showed no plan of ever becoming profitable, and then the bubble burst) The same will happen with the euro, and the dollar will become more valuable.
 
[quote name='ryanbph']IMO, the usd is undervalued. 5 - 7 or so years ago it was over vauled, and it took a hit and was put back in its place. But wtf is keeping the euro afloat. It doesn't have any value behind it. European contries, while not owing anywhere what we do, are in just as shitty of a hole that we are (scalable). They export very little, so what is keeping the euro so strong besides the hype of a unified currency in europe. IMO, a couple of years from now, the euro will drop like a brick tossed into the ocean, much like the over valued nasdaq. There is nothing to support the value of the euro as a currency besides the blind faith. (people were investing into stock companies in the late 90's, on the hype they would do something. For years the companies were losing money and showed no plan of ever becoming profitable, and then the bubble burst) The same will happen with the euro, and the dollar will become more valuable.[/quote]
Nothing really. But that's just as true of the US dollar as it is the euro. Both are fiat currency.
 
that is true of the us dollar, but we are closer to our value then the euro is. I was just saying there is a bubble around the euro not because of the value, but the idea of a unified currency. At some point it will burst.
 
[quote name='ryanbph']that is true of the us dollar, but we are closer to our value then the euro is. I was just saying there is a bubble around the euro not because of the value, but the idea of a unified currency. At some point it will burst.[/quote]

Actually I think both are overvalued but you are correct that the euro is more overvalued than the dollar. I think the dollar has a lot more to fall. It's gonna get worse before it gets better. In the interim however, I'm making a decent return off the forex market.:cool:
 
[quote name='jaykrue']Actually I think both are overvalued but you are correct that the euro is more overvalued than the dollar. I think the dollar has a lot more to fall. It's gonna get worse before it gets better. In the interim however, I'm making a decent return off the forex market.:cool:[/quote]
If the Saudis and the rest of the OPEC gang decide to start pricing thier oil commodities in Euros, (they're have been murmurs about the Saudis converting) the dollar is going to tank even further.

I wish my folks listened to me 6-7 years ago when GW took office and the market dropped substancially. I told them that we're prolly going to start a war and when there is war, there are funds that need to feed it.

They're retired now in Portugal but the $$$ stays here until the exchange rate tips more in thier favor. Right now it's too much of a hit to exchange for Euros. $1000 US becomes $650 Euro (OUCH!) so they only bring what they need.

Oh and Jaykrue, fuck you! Just kidding. :cool:

Kids this is how you invest. He bought real estate while still in college and rented to his own college mates so they basically paid itself. Then bought his first standalone property and made $ on that. Now instead of the $ getting moldy in a CD or statement saving account, he placed a wager on the Euro going up.

I agree with you Jay in saying they are both fiat currencies no doubt. But I also think that the Euro is a bit more resilient just by having multiple countries supporting it. THere is too much at stake for all countries to let it get hammered into the ground.
 
[quote name='CappyCobra']If the Saudis and the rest of the OPEC gang decide to start pricing thier oil commodities in Euros, (they're have been murmurs about the Saudis converting) the dollar is going to tank even further.

I wish my folks listened to me 6-7 years ago when GW took office and the market dropped substancially. I told them that we're prolly going to start a war and when there is war, there are funds that need to feed it.

They're retired now in Portugal but the $$$ stays here until the exchange rate tips more in thier favor. Right now it's too much of a hit to exchange for Euros. $1000 US becomes $650 Euro (OUCH!) so they only bring what they need.[/quote]
Nice. I wish I was in Portugal. Been meaning to visit there. I've been to Spain though.

[quote name='CappyCobra']Oh and Jaykrue, fuck you! Just kidding. :cool:

Kids this is how you invest. He bought real estate while still in college and rented to his own college mates so they basically paid itself. Then bought his first standalone property and made $ on that. Now instead of the $ getting moldy in a CD or statement saving account, he placed a wager on the Euro going up.[/quote]
Chalk it up to not wanting to be fucked when I'm old enough to receive Soc. Sec. and knowing there probably won't be any money there to speak of.:lol: To be fair though, I'm a highly pragmatic person and I don't like to place a wager w/o hedging my bets. Betting on the euro was only one of several strategies I employ at the same time. Truthfully, I took a bit of a hit due to the subprime mess so it's fortunate my forays into the stock and forex markets helped buffer the hit. Right now, I'm slowly recovering from the crisis thanks to my rental properties constant cashflow but I'm also dipping my toes into the commodities markets, particularly agriculture and precious metals. The way things are going, I think things that have substance and tangibility are probably going to be better than any currencies for some time.

Another thing is I'm in talks about doing real estate in China. I'm not particularly enthused about it since I like to keep a close eye on my investments but the Dubya really screwed the pooch for the rest of us. So it's just another hedged bet for me.

[quote name='CappyCobra']I agree with you Jay in saying they are both fiat currencies no doubt. But I also think that the Euro is a bit more resilient just by having multiple countries supporting it. THere is too much at stake for all countries to let it get hammered into the ground.[/quote]
I dunno. A lot of countries (even the ones that hate the US) still deal in dollars so, while they may loathe the US, these countries still need the US dollar to function. So I think there's a lot at stake for other countries as well. For example, iirc, Ecuador officially adopted the US dollar as their own currency so they need the dollar to be strong to help drive their own economy. Although I wasn't even born before they dropped the gold standard I still wish we had something solid to back the dollar.
 
Jay you can thank the pos Fed for dumping Gold and FDR not allowing big private ownership of it. I would argue he was in bed with them. The no private ownership of Gold was so very wealthy individuals and thieves like the Fed could take back any wealth Middle Class and disagreeable individuals of them had gained.
 
[quote name='Sarang01']Jay you can thank the pos Fed for dumping Gold and FDR not allowing big private ownership of it. I would argue he was in bed with them. The no private ownership of Gold was so very wealthy individuals and thieves like the Fed could take back any wealth Middle Class and disagreeable individuals of them had gained.[/quote]

That may be true but I'd rather not spend time being pissed at what was than what may be. If it ever reverts back (which is doubtful considering how wealth has spiraled out of control), cool, if not, as I've already mentioned, my bets are covered.:whistle2:k:whistle2:|:???:
 
[quote name='jaykrue']That may be true but I'd rather not spend time being pissed at what was than what may be. If it ever reverts back (which is doubtful considering how wealth has spiraled out of control), cool, if not, as I've already mentioned, my bets are covered.:whistle2:k:whistle2:|:???:[/QUOTE]

Well I'm irritated becaause their ultimate goal is enslavement of many serving the stolen wealth of a few. This is why I put out the concept of people becoming as self sustainable as possible. Imagine the mass populus as Marionettes with various strings attached, those strings are energy, food, water, ISP, etc. Setting up a solar panel on one's house, collecting rain water and having a system to purify it. Growing one's own crops, especially fruits and vegetables. When buying food, always going for the bases, i.e. lowest common denominator, flour, sugar, dry beans, etc.
The last comment is something everyone can do and although it's a bit more time consuming it's cheaper. Also you know exactly what you're getting when you cook your food.
 
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