How much of this recession do you think is mental?

MSI Magus

MSI Magus

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I don't think by any means that this is a mental recession. However I do feel a fairly large chunk of it is. Yes we would have had a recession and probably a fairly harsh one after the housing crash and with all the other problems that have been building up for years now. However I really do feel as much as half of the severity is being caused by the media freaking people out. Look at the reports today that state over and over and over how our economy shrunk by the largest rate in history. That report is everywhere and every last one of them is making things sound as gloomy as possible. Meanwhile the truth of it is that ya its a huge drop, but its not as big of a drop as was being predicted. That fact has been left out of every report I have read but the one at the Nytimes.

I understand negative news sells, but christ this stuff is freaking people out so bad even newspaper sales are taking a hit so what is the point? A recession was inevitable, but I honestly blame the media for a large chunk of this. The public is too stupid to understand whats really going on 90% of the time so if the news just reported things as they were or heaven forbid put a positive spin on things I think we could have had our sneezing fit and been whipping the mucus off our hands by spring to late fall at worse. As things stand I think we could be in for several rough years.

Edit- Just checked the nytimes and their article is now titled with nothing but negativity too. Yay!
 
We are recovering from a huge bursted bubble in the financial sector so it isn't imaginary. Lots of people are hurting and its going to take a while to unwind. I think most of 2009 will be rough but eventually the several trillion worth of new money that has been printed by the fed will filter down to the average person and we will have a nice artificial boom for a while.

When the bill comes due though, look out below..
 
[quote name='mykevermin']How much of the robust economy and growth we've experienced over the past half-century or more doe you think is mental?[/QUOTE]

Given that we have spent money we dont have(both our goverment and the common man)a fair amount.
 
It's not mental at all. The 2000 recession was largely a mental recession.

What we are doing now is FINALLY taking off the rose colored glasses and seeing how crappy things really are under all the fluff we have been covering our economic system with the past decde or so.

Of course it is true that negativity breeds more negativity but at some point you have to wake up and really deal with the issues and we are finally being forced to deal with some of these issues. We can not simply "think happy thoughts" and get past these issues.

Of course if you watch Fox Business or CNBC then you know it is only a matter of time before the Dow is flying up to 20k.;)
 
[quote name='Capitalizt']We are recovering from a huge bursted bubble in the financial sector so it isn't imaginary. Lots of people are hurting and its going to take a while to unwind. I think most of 2009 will be rough but eventually the several trillion worth of new money that has been printed by the fed will filter down to the average person and we will have a nice artificial boom for a while.

When the bill comes due though, look out below..[/QUOTE]
Tough to disagree with that.

The pressure build up was way past reasonable. The response has also been unreasonable to this point. Until rationality returns to the market, we'll be stuck like this. And rationality doesn't look like it'll be back anytime soon.

I'm still waiting for the credit default swaps to really sink their teeth in.
 
It's definitely not mental. The stock market is way down (my IRA which thankfully only had $1,100 in it last year is down to $700--imagine how that hit people with hundreds of thousands in IRAs, mutual funds etc.), unemployment it rising quickly, businesses are failing and the credit system is still all fucked up.

I mean sure there's some negativity there--especially on threads here with people thinking we're going to have breadlines etc. I don't think it will get anywhere near that bad. I think we'll just bounce around like we have been for the past few months for another year or so before the economy stabilizes and begins to grow again.

But the negativity is understandable when people are losing their jobs, having hard times finding a job, seeing their savings dwindle etc. etc. I've stayed more positive as I've been very lucky and my career etc. has worked out perfectly despite the shortcomings as my current job is secure and I was lucky enough to land the job I wanted for next year after I graduate.

So I certainly see how and why many are more negative as many people are really taking it in the ass in this economy. So I don't see how anyone could think the recession is mental.
 
It's def a good excuse for companies that are doing fine still to fire people and or give out low/no raises. I really, really believe that.
 
[quote name='dmaul1114']It's definitely not mental. The stock market is way down (my IRA which thankfully only had $1,100 in it last year is down to $700--imagine how that hit people with hundreds of thousands in IRAs, mutual funds etc.), unemployment it rising quickly, businesses are failing and the credit system is still all fucked up.

I mean sure there's some negativity there--especially on threads here with people thinking we're going to have breadlines etc. I don't think it will get anywhere near that bad. I think we'll just bounce around like we have been for the past few months for another year or so before the economy stabilizes and begins to grow again.

But the negativity is understandable when people are losing their jobs, having hard times finding a job, seeing their savings dwindle etc. etc. I've stayed more positive as I've been very lucky and my career etc. has worked out perfectly despite the shortcomings as my current job is secure and I was lucky enough to land the job I wanted for next year after I graduate.

So I certainly see how and why many are more negative as many people are really taking it in the ass in this economy. So I don't see how anyone could think the recession is mental.[/QUOTE]

Ah but here is the thing, the biggest driver of our economy in recent years has been consumer spending. So if after the housing market crashed instead of freaking the fuck out about it the media would have just reported the facts and not screamed the sky is falling how would people have reacted? I honestly believe that yes we would have a recession and it probably would have been worse then usual both in the amount of people that lose their job and in the time it takes to recover. However if people wouldn't have freaked out and over Christmas didnt cut spending then retailers wouldnt have had to cut sales which leads to producers producing less which leads to more people losing jobs.

Like I said I am not arguing a bad recession could have been avoided, but its hard to argue whenever the majority of our economy is consumer spending that if consumers wouldn't have stopped spending then the economy wouldn't be as bad.
 
I don't think people freaked out because of the media reporting. They freaked out when they saw their investments shrinking. Or when they got laid off or saw lots of friends and family getting laid off. Or when they couldn't get a loan they needed as the credit had dried up.

You see that stuff happening and you cut back discretionary spending if you have any common sense.
 
[quote name='dmaul1114']I don't think people freaked out because of the media reporting. They freaked out when they saw their investments shrinking. Or when they got laid off or saw lots of friends and family getting laid off. Or when they couldn't get a loan they needed as the credit had dried up.

You see that stuff happening and you cut back discretionary spending if you have any common sense.[/QUOTE]

Yes and in general for a stock to go down confidence has to be down correct? So again it comes back to the confidence of the consumer. Look I agree that the stocks going down and people losing jobs and all this played a roll. I just think its a 50/50 or at best 70/30. My fiancees grandparents lost their entire retirment like 20 years ago in a stock crash yet they hadnt freaked out since....till they started hearing every day 50x a day how bad things were.
 
We'll just have to agree to disagree there. It's not like lack of confidence was made up from mental responses to media issues.

Major banks and investment firms went under, and many more would have if not for a huge federal bail out.

Consumer spending (or lack of it) didn't cause this recession. Lowered spending is just a consequence of it, and does of course make things worse. But again it's not because of anything mental, it's because people have to be tighter with their budgets as their retirement accounts have shrank and they can't have as much confidence in their job security as before etc. etc. It's not being mental, it's being smart and fiscally responsible.

A person's first responsibility is to take care of themselves and their families, not to spend money in hopes of boosting the economy.
 
[quote name='dmaul1114']
A person's first responsibility is to take care of themselves and their families, not to spend money in hopes of boosting the economy.[/quote]

Yep, when you are on the verge of bankruptcy, it's generally a bad idea to listen to economist who says "Hey, maybe you should buy another car and refinish your kitchen."

But that's exactly what our government is doing. $10.7 trillion in debt abd we are due to borrow another couple trillion to buy artificial prosperity...insanity.
 
Well, the government really does have to do something. At the least with the major banks to make sure they don't go under. And from what I've been reading it may take some more money to them to stop that from happening.

Anything they can do to create jobs will be good as well. It sucks going more into national debt, but in the long run it could be worth it. They just have to be careful and spend the money in the right ways (which will take some experimenting) and to have enough oversight to make sure the money is used as intended--which they're failing at so far with BoA and other companies giving out large bonuses, remodeling etc. etc.
 
Well it's mental because people got greedy or didn't understand what they were getting into. They didn't think things through. It's interesting if the media has as much affect as you say because even recently there have been people saying how apathetic we are. And even with the media reporting how things are, the government didn't officially declare it a recession/depression until a couple months ago even while things were getting worse and everyone could plainly see. We were an industry based economy now are services and that hurts.
 
Alot, then again... if you get laid off or are jobless and continue to be that way you don't have money and if you don't have money stuff can't get done and well. Yeah, I'd say $$ is a big reason too if you don't have it.

Edit: After hearing about how stupid banks are being lately I'd regret bailing them out and would've rather let them die...
 
I'd say around 30% right now. The stock market has pretty much bottomed out. It's fluctuating between 8,000 and 9,000 right now, and while businesses are getting money, they aren't using it.

And it's not the banks that are being stupid. It's the Government who allowed them free reign over how those dollars were spent, if at all.
 
[quote name='dmaul1114']Well, the government really does have to do something.

Anything they can do to create jobs will be good as well.[/QUOTE]

Completely disagree. The government doesn't have to do anything. In fact, the government's involvement so far has done nothing more than (a) waste taxpayer money and (b) make the situation worse (keep the markets from balancing themselves).

And the government can only "create" jobs by taking money that would otherwise be used for jobs in the private sector. If the government sells bonds to get the money, people put money into bonds instead of into investments or business, which create jobs. The government filters the money through the bureaucracy, wasting much of it, then spits out far fewer jobs than could have resulted from the same amount used in a more efficient manner.

The bottom line is that I believe the government should (a) spend a lot less and (b) cut taxes, especially on those at the bottom of the food chain. The problem is we already made idiotic decisions like giving Hank Paulson's pals $700 billion and now are going to make another idiotic decision in giving Democratic interest groups $550+ billion. If we were going to spend $1.25 trillion anyway, why not just give me back my share of that? Even if we split it by all Americans and not just taxpayers, it would be $4,166.67.
 
[quote name='elprincipe']
And the government can only "create" jobs by taking money that would otherwise be used for jobs in the private sector.[/QUOTE]

That is not how it works.

And as much as righties love to paint this as merely some busywork it isn't, a lot of this spending is essential to the health of the US and even a trillion would not be enough just for the infrastructure part of the equation.
 
[quote name='Msut77']That is not how it works.

And as much as righties love to paint this as merely some busywork it isn't, a lot of this spending is essential to the health of the US and even a trillion would not be enough just for the infrastructure part of the equation.[/quote]

But how much spending is too much? We're looking at some major inflation springing up in the next 8-12 months, no matter how you slice it. The value of the dollar could be cut by 50% in a year of what it is right now if they keeping putting out these "stimulus" bills.

And I've said it before and I'll say it again. THE BANKS ARE SITTING ON THIS MONEY! IT IS GOING TO WASTE! And the money that isn't going to banks are going to Democratic pork projects, or heaven forbid, their own pockets.
 
[quote name='Msut77']That is not how it works.

And as much as righties love to paint this as merely some busywork it isn't, a lot of this spending is essential to the health of the US and even a trillion would not be enough just for the infrastructure part of the equation.[/QUOTE]

The thing that I love is how much the people on the right ignore how much of this is spending that regardless of if it fixes the economy or not is needed to fix other areas. Study after study has said that just to rebuild our roads and bridges bringing them up to the status of "good" is going to cost over 2 trillion dollars. Then there is the fact that we do need to be working on building a green tech infrastructure, then the fact that it is going to cost a shit ton of money to upgrade our health record data base, then the fact, then the fact etc etc. We have far too long let slide far too many things. Yes its true that most of the money the government has been spending is on the wrong shit and as a result we have that huge deficit. But it doesnt negate the fact that there are things that needed to be done and the money Obama is spending on things like bridges, health care and education are just a drop in the bucket for what is needed.

That said that doesnt mean that the bill isnt full of all sorts of pork and bad spending too. For instance WTF is the point in increasing money to unemployment before its needed? More of that money should be spent on trying to create jobs and THEN if unemployment rises to a point where it needs federal assistance try and pass a different bill. Republicans are dead right that increasing unemployment and food stamps and all those other programs should not be a priority over creating new jobs. A second thing they are right on was some of the random spending like $200 million to restore our nations malls. That was money that could be spend further fixing up our infrastructure or on education why the fuck should we be fixing up the mall?
 
[quote name='KingBroly']But how much spending is too much?[/QUOTE]

Iraq is going to cost somewhere around three trillion, no one takes you guys seriously when you all the sudden start caring. Something that should be pointed that if it isn't done correctly (such as the plan to buy up basically every toxic asset around) it would cost over 4 trillion, personally I feel "in for a penny in for a pound" applies and we are far from the point where enough was spent to make an impact.

We're looking at some major inflation springing up in the next 8-12 months, no matter how you slice it. The value of the dollar could be cut by 50% in a year of what it is right now if they keeping putting out these "stimulus" bills.
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Sauce plz, I am not saying it is impossible that inflation would happen but 50% a year? You have also been fined for unnecessary use of quote marks.

And I've said it before and I'll say it again. THE BANKS ARE SITTING ON THIS MONEY
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I am pretty sure they are giving it out as bonuses and then sitting on it, tis nothing that cannot be fixed with the liberal application of a rusty crowbar.

And the money that isn't going to banks are going to Democratic pork projects, or heaven forbid, their own pockets.
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No. Not even close.
 
[quote name='MSI Magus']For instance WTF is the point in increasing money to unemployment before its needed?[/QUOTE]

Well things are going to get worse before they get better, I would give 20 to 1 odds on that.

I was not aware that extra unemployment funds were not need, in NY the state ran out of funds within a week of the new year.
 
[quote name='MSI Magus']That said that doesnt mean that the bill isnt full of all sorts of pork and bad spending too. For instance WTF is the point in increasing money to unemployment before its needed? More of that money should be spent on trying to create jobs and THEN if unemployment rises to a point where it needs federal assistance try and pass a different bill. Republicans are dead right that increasing unemployment and food stamps and all those other programs should not be a priority over creating new jobs. A second thing they are right on was some of the random spending like $200 million to restore our nations malls. That was money that could be spend further fixing up our infrastructure or on education why the fuck should we be fixing up the mall?[/QUOTE]

If we are so worried about unemployment (I sympathize), this bill could provide $75,000 to each unemployed person in the United States. Instead, we want $4+ billion to go to ACORN to commit more voter fraud and $140 million for climate change research (as if they need it). This entire "stimulus" bill, which of course will not stimulate anything but well-connected political interest groups, is a massive fraud.
 
[quote name='elprincipe']If we are so worried about unemployment (I sympathize), this bill could provide $75,000 to each unemployed person in the United States. Instead, we want $4+ billion to go to ACORN to commit more voter fraud and $140 million for climate change research (as if they need it). This entire "stimulus" bill, which of course will not stimulate anything but well-connected political interest groups, is a massive fraud.[/QUOTE]

Got proof of the acorn thing. Also its stupid to even bitch about the climate change research thing. If your far to the right then you dont believe in global warming no matter what the scientists will say. If your moderate or claim to be moderate like thrust its stupid because you would be one of the people screaming more research is needed. If your on the left then you should already realize the importance of this.
 
[quote name='Msut77']Iraq is going to cost somewhere around three trillion, no one takes you guys seriously when you all the sudden start caring. Something that should be pointed that if it isn't done correctly (such as the plan to buy up basically every toxic asset around) it would cost over 4 trillion, personally I feel "in for a penny in for a pound" applies and we are far from the point where enough was spent to make an impact.[/quote]
My point is that it ain't doing a damn bit of good, as this "bailout" is already the highest expenditure in the history of the United States.

Sauce plz, I am not saying it is impossible that inflation would happen but 50% a year? You have also been fined for unnecessary use of quote marks.
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IN a year. Not A year. World of difference.

I am pretty sure they are giving it out as bonuses and then sitting on it, tis nothing that cannot be fixed with the liberal application of a rusty crowbar.
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You have been fined for excessive use of not spelling out words completely.

No. Not even close.
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http://www.stimuluswatch.org/
Doorbells
 
[quote name='MSI Magus']Got proof of the acorn thing. Also its stupid to even bitch about the climate change research thing. If your far to the right then you dont believe in global warming no matter what the scientists will say. If your moderate or claim to be moderate like thrust its stupid because you would be one of the people screaming more research is needed. If your on the left then you should already realize the importance of this.[/QUOTE]

ACORN: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/fir...eaders-raise-concerns-acorn-stimulus-dollars/

I am unsure one way or the other on global warming. But I do know this: we are doing lots of research for lots of money already. LOTS. They don't need more money, they need more time.
 
[quote name='KingBroly']My point is that it ain't doing a damn bit of good, as this "bailout" is already the highest expenditure in the history of the United States.[/quote]

Even if those numbers were adjusted for inflation, no. Non-Defense? Near as I can tell probably.

You seem to be conflating bail out and stimulus, it is probably intentional just like your use of unnecesary quote marks.

IN a year. Not A year. World of difference.
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It is still a hell of a claim, care to back it up?

As for your other claim.

As I said before, no not even close.

Want to see a better and much more informative link than yours?

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcon...txlobby_30tex.ART.State.Edition1.47067f9.html

or

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28949195/
 
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[quote name='MSI Magus']Got proof of the acorn thing. Also its stupid to even bitch about the climate change research thing. If your far to the right then you dont believe in global warming no matter what the scientists will say. If your moderate or claim to be moderate like thrust its stupid because you would be one of the people screaming more research is needed. If your on the left then you should already realize the importance of this.[/QUOTE]


His proof is less than nothing, it is a bunch of right wing drones trying to pretend as if all the money is going to ACORN when it is merely an example of the kind of group that would/could receive funds.
The charges made about voter fraud are likewise overblown.

prince also claims he is undecided about global warming, don't believe him as he is not particularly honest.
 
[quote name='elprincipe']ACORN: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/fir...eaders-raise-concerns-acorn-stimulus-dollars/

I am unsure one way or the other on global warming. But I do know this: we are doing lots of research for lots of money already. LOTS. They don't need more money, they need more time.[/QUOTE]

Give me a source other then fox news. Fox news is the most biased piece of crap around and you posting it makes me as suspicious as someone posting something from moveon.org or from Rush Limbaugh. And honestly pretty much every respectable scientist has said Global Warming is real. If we are going to insist that it may or may not be real then I would preffer to spend a fair deal of money on it.

/shakes his head. I honestly havnt read enough of your posts but I am starting to seriously wonder if your another Brolly/Tivo kind of far right nut job. I mean seriously posting a fox news link, especially a fox news link referencing acorn after the stupid lies fox spread about them during the election.
 
[quote name='KingBroly']I'd say around 30% right now. The stock market has pretty much bottomed out. It's fluctuating between 8,000 and 9,000 right now, and while businesses are getting money, they aren't using it.[/quote]

No. We aren't at the bottom. For many retailers, last year had no days in the black.

Circuit City is bankrupt, but they're the first out of the door, not the last. So, the number of people laid off hasn't hit the maximum. http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4580880n

The vast majority of states are broke. http://www.cbpp.org/9-8-08sfp.htm

Many states are borrowing money from the Fed and their magic printing presses to pay out unemployment. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/15/us/15funds.html

...

On a personal level, things are mixed.

I have had my $85,000 house on the market for nearly a year with only one offer of $70,000. I was trying to sell it for $81,500. I've given up on the idea of selling the house. My realtor (the second one we're on) has no idea of what to do other than throw barrels of money at the prospective buyers a la Donkey Kong. To maintain insurance, I'm putting it up for rent in February.

My wife and I are both working. We're doing better than breaking even because both of our employers are offering overtime. I mailed off the mortgage payment due 3/1 today.

If one of us would be fired or laid off, we spend $800 a month on daycare and at least another $700 on the house. So, we wouldn't need unemployment to make ends meet if my wife could accept some adjustments to lifestyle.

As far as the future, I don't know. I'm optimistic because everything is slightly better than stable, but my family needs to get back into a house. There's the question: Am I qualified to get another mortgage? Any bank looking at my mortgage payment history would recognize we're low risk, but we can't start lowballing distressed homeowners until our first home is rented out.
 
[quote name='MSI Magus']Give me a source other then fox news. Fox news is the most biased piece of crap around and you posting it makes me as suspicious as someone posting something from moveon.org or from Rush Limbaugh. And honestly pretty much every respectable scientist has said Global Warming is real. If we are going to insist that it may or may not be real then I would preffer to spend a fair deal of money on it.

/shakes his head. I honestly havnt read enough of your posts but I am starting to seriously wonder if your another Brolly/Tivo kind of far right nut job. I mean seriously posting a fox news link, especially a fox news link referencing acorn after the stupid lies fox spread about them during the election.[/QUOTE]

Who put a stick up your ass? The Fox link was merely the one at the top of the list when I searched. And while they are biased to the right, absolutely, they are no more biased than a source like the NY Times or MSNBC are to the left.

I don't usually spend extra time to get another source for the exact same information. But I'll grant 10 more seconds to find a couple more.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/0127200...aders_oppose_stimulus_money_for_ac_152276.htm
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/01/27/MN9O15H6BT.DTL

I'd also like to know what lies were spread about ACORN (other than certain people assigning guilt before it's proven, as some people - yes, including on Fox, such as Sean Hannity - are wont to do). They are under investigation for voter fraud in a dozen or more states. Why you think that's a lie when it's a verifiable fact I don't know. Perhaps you think they are innocent, but guilt is not what "under investigation" asserts.

As for global warming, the "every respectable scientist" claim is a myth. I've seen very intelligent arguments on both sides of the issue and think such debate, while there are attempts to suppress it, is vitally important if we are to make far-reaching decisions based on the results. But the point in this thread is we are already spending far more than a "fair deal" of money on it, and there is no way we need another $140 million in addition to the tons that are already being spent.
 
I agree the media is just making it worse..... EVERY FREAKING DAY they talk about more job losses. Yes we already know we are in a recession. They don't need to repeat that 6 times a day every day.

I wonder if psychologists are making big money theses days with people coming in to talk about the stress from the recession?
 
I am starting to know a bunch of people getting laid off. There is a pretty tangible dread all around.
 
[quote name='Xevious']I am starting to know a bunch of people getting laid off. There is a pretty tangible dread all around.[/QUOTE]

Half my family is unemployed, ok some of them happen to be dumbshit GED drop outs but even my high school valedictorian (voted most likely to succeed) is pounding pavement.
 
[quote name='Any left leaning new world orderist']

... I am starting to seriously wonder if your another Brolly/Tivo kind of far right nut job. I mean seriously posting a fox news link, especially a fox news link referencing acorn after the stupid lies fox spread about them during the election.[/QUOTE]

I heartily enjoy the so-called moderates who think that anyone who disagrees with their political bible are automatically "right-wing-nut-jobs".

Please present evidence that Fox news spread lies about ACORN during the election. Then you might want to elaborate how they are spreading more lies today. Then allow us to know what media outlets have never spread lies and are on your approved list of trustworthy news sources. It's hip to bash Fox news (sorry, Faux News) because it's what all the other smart-minded people do without question. And when the jack boots all line up in a row, it's awfully hard not to march in lock-step along with them.

The "recession" is equally mental and realized. When corporations can't get their lines of credit extended and can't pay them off in time because cashflow is dwindling, it's real. When Jonny Smith down the street loses his job and the family moves away it's perceived. When your portfolio shrinks, it imaginary money that disappears, when your house won't sell for more than what you owe then it's real. It doesn't really matter what it is because one begets the other. Everything including the value of our currency is based on faith, or a belief in the system to function.

A dollar isn't worth a dollar because the government says so, it has worth because of the perceived or belief in it's value by the individuals in the community. How many of you can remember the recession we were in when Clinton left office? As Bush stepped off the plane he was lambasted for commenting on our dire economic state and creating panic and worsening the economy. Yet when a Democrat says it it's called truth. Somehow I don't think Faux News is the only media that propagates untruths.
 
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