Until we have confirmation from Sony, this is just speculation. At the same time, it wouldn't particularly surprise me. The Vita has been losing retail traction for some time. A price drop at this juncture would not be unexpected. Likewise, the PS4 has been out for a year and a half, and with Microsoft cutting the Kinect out of the XBox One, a price drop on the PS4 could help them to keep the system competitive.
Either way, a major price reduction like this would most likely be announced at Sony's E3 press conference. Being able to splash those numbers up on the screen in the middle of a big event like that is a sure-fire way to drum up enthusiasm from the crowd, and make waves with major non-gaming news sources. Forbes is going to love something like that. So we are all going to have to wait another week and a half before we know for certain.
A price reduction this large on the Vita hardware could be a signal that Sony is throwing in the towel. Or it could simply be an adjustment of their Vita strategy. And here is another thing to think about. It could be that a new version of the Vita will be announced at E3. If a new Vita model is announced, I would expect it to be focused mainly on boosting the Vita's digital business. To that end, I would expect it to be largely feature-identical to the existing Vita, but to have a substantial amount of built-in flash memory. (I'm thinking no less than 16 Gigs, and 32 would not be unreasonable)
The blasted memory cards are one of the biggest stumbling blocks for the Vita. Offering a version of the system that would make them a largely optional extra would be a good idea. The digital offerings on PSN for the Vita have been great, and along with PSPlus the Vita is a great system for digital purchases. Using it as a way to push digital purchases is a good strategy for Sony. (instead of focusing on retail sales) But for that, they still need the physical system to sell. Price cuts and a memory-bearing redesign are the best strategies I can think of.