WSJ Report on ADP Estimate: Almost 700,000 jobs lost in December

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ADP Reports 693,000 Private-Sector Jobs Lost in December

Private sector jobs fell 693,000 in the U.S. in December, according to a revamped national employment report published Wednesday by payroll giant Automatic Data Processing Inc. and consultancy Macroeconomic Advisers.

That’s far higher than the 515,000 loss forecast in a Dow Jones Newswires survey.

The December ADP survey is the first to incorporate a major overhaul of the methodology, including new regressions. The changes were introduced because the ADP survey has underestimated the monthly number of job losses as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics since the recession began in December 2007.

For instance, under the old calculations, the ADP Survey showed a loss of 250,000 private-sector jobs in November. The new methodology shows a 476,000 job drop in November, closer to the 533,000 reported by the BLS.

The ADP survey tallies only private-sector jobs while the BLS data include government workers. Based on recent public-sector job growth, Wednesday’s ADP report suggests December nonfarm payrolls will show a loss of at least 650,000 when the BLS reports the data on Friday.

The new report showed businesses with 500 employees and more shed 91,000 jobs and medium-sized businesses lost 321,000 jobs in December. Small businesses that employ fewer than 50 workers cut 281,000 jobs.

Manufacturing employment dropped 120,000 in December, while service sector jobs fell 473,000.

The ADP employment report provides a snapshot of the private sector job market just ahead of the official U.S. payrolls report, which will be published Friday. ADP’s report doesn’t include government jobs, which have been rising this year while private jobs have been lost.

ADP, of Roseland, N.J., claims to process the payment of one in six U.S. workers, while Macroeconomic Advisers, based in St. Louis, is an economic consulting firm. The firms release this indicator each month at 8:15 a.m. ET on the Wednesday prior to the release of the Labor Department’s Employment Situation report. –Matthew Cowley

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Not good news at all. Friends of mine are losing jobs faster than virginity gets lost at an Orange County middle-school.

What do you guys think? Are we over the hump yet?
 
You know what I think: food runs and mass, mass riots before it's all over.

Think of the survival techniques people employed during hurricane Katrina (you may recall it as "scavenging" for white folks and "looting" for black folks, at least according to your liberal media). But on a national level.

And I'm not kidding.
 
[quote name='mykevermin']You know what I think: food runs and mass, mass riots before it's all over.

Think of the survival techniques people employed during hurricane Katrina (you may recall it as "scavenging" for white folks and "looting" for black folks, at least according to your liberal media). But on a national level.

And I'm not kidding.[/quote]
Bring on the looting scavenging! I want a new TV.
 
[quote name='mykevermin']You know what I think: food runs and mass, mass riots before it's all over.

Think of the survival techniques people employed during hurricane Katrina (you may recall it as "scavenging" for white folks and "looting" for black folks, at least according to your liberal media). But on a national level.

And I'm not kidding.[/QUOTE]

Well you said it. And good thing to, because people expect me to say stuff like that, but not you. ;)

As I'm on a quote finding mission this morning, let me share one I find relevant:

"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon."
Click to expand...
-- Robert H. Hamphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank
 
Damn, I guess I was born with the wrong skin color. Time to sharpen up my looting skills.


But seriously....this is fucked up. I cant imagine being in college right now and having this waiting for you when you get out. God, my student loans are already get screwed up because its hard to run work as a freelancer when no one else has disposable income.
 
I'd love to see the government take this unprecedented manpower and put it to use on some of the infrastructure issues the country will eventually need to deal with. Rather than wrting checks, hire and train some of these people towards rebuilding bridges, building and upgrading existing mass transit, researching alternate/renewable, etc energy sources. Whether or not it solves the economic crisis, at least it will create several decades worth of value. If governent is going to be spending hundreds of billions, let's see something good come out of it.
 
The new report showed businesses with 500 employees and more shed 91,000 jobs and medium-sized businesses lost 321,000 jobs in December. Small businesses that employ fewer than 50 workers cut 281,000 jobs.
Click to expand...

Also looks like a power shift to big corporations.
 
I will say that most companies do fire employees around the holidays, but that is a tad high. I'm surprised no one dug up last December's job losses number for a comparison (when they say this recession began)
 
[quote name='Soodmeg']But seriously....this is fucked up. I cant imagine being in college right now and having this waiting for you when you get out. God, my student loans are already get screwed up because its hard to run work as a freelancer when no one else has disposable income.[/quote]

I just finished last month and it's motherfucking terrifying. I have to get a job to help my family out (my dad gets paid shit even though he has high security clearance and my mother just died) and I'm hoping this little bit of networking I got lucky with yesterday pans out, but even if it does, it'll take weeks to get to the interview, and MONTHS to get me processed through the system to actually start the job.

I have to find ANOTHER job while I wait for that job. And my sister's been looking for one in this area (Melbourne/Palm Bay) for two years.
 
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