Who do you think will win the presidency tomorrow?

E-Z-B

CAGiversary!
...assuming that there's a clear winner by Wednesday morning, 6am, of course. You might be for Kerry, but think that Bush will still win or vice versa.

I believe Kerry will win.

1. How many people who voted for Gore in 2000 will switch their votes to Bush this year? Not many. More likely, Bush supporters will switch their vote democrat this year due to the economy or war in Iraq.

2. The polls this time 4 years ago showed Bush with about 52% of the vote vs. Gore with something like 38%. Gore went on to win the popular vote. This year, it's dead even. If this trend continues, that will mean Kerry will win with a much larger victory.

3. The polls don't reflect all the young people without landlines. And younger people tend to vote more democratic.


Feel free to agree or disagree, or post your own thoughts about Bush and Kerry. Only one more day to wait.
 
Kerry. Voter turnout will be astonishing, and new voter registrations will swing this much farther than the polls currently show.

seppo
 
I believe there are three key states: Ohio, Iowa and I don't know recall the third one.

Everything else is irrelevant - win 2 out of 3 of those states and you win the election.
 
Probably Pennsylvania. I think there's going to be some suprises with the electoral college - expect a few to go the other way that you didn't expect. I forget which one - New Mexico or Arizona, I think. Whichever was deemed Republican territory.
 
Probably you are right about ir being PA.

NJ is far closer that anyone thought it would be.

Who knows.

CTL
 
[quote name='E-Z-B']Or Al Sharpton as a write-in? :shock:[/quote]

:lol: That is the single worst thing I can imagine happening to this country.
 
I really have no gut feeling on this one. Could be either one.

[quote name='E-Z-B']1. How many people who voted for Gore in 2000 will switch their votes to Bush this year? Not many. More likely, Bush supporters will switch their vote democrat this year due to the economy or war in Iraq.[/quote]

Using Bush/Gore in 2000 is a poor comparison, because many people thought both choices stunk and saw no reason to vote. For instance, no one in my immediate family voted in the 2000 election, but all three of us are voting in this election. This time around, there will be a much higher turnout on both sides, so Bush/Gore won't be relevant.

[quote name='E-Z-B']2. The polls this time 4 years ago showed Bush with about 52% of the vote vs. Gore with something like 38%. Gore went on to win the popular vote. This year, it's dead even. If this trend continues, that will mean Kerry will win with a much larger victory.[/quote]

As for polls in 2000, Zogby predicted it would be a tie and that turned out to be the result of the race, not all polling organizations put Bush ahead.

In 2000, 2 days before the election, Zogby had Bush ahead of Gore 47-46. This year, 2 days before the election Zogby has Bush ahead of Kerry 48-47.

[quote name='E-Z-B']
3. The polls don't reflect all the young people without landlines. And younger people tend to vote more democratic.[/quote]

And while the polls don't reflect younger people without landlines, younger people are much less likely to vote than older people, and the polls also don't take into consideration the overseas military votes of which 75%+ of support Bush.

So I'd say its a toss up.
 
Although I have to say that relying on young people that have never voted before to push you over the top doesn't seem to be the safest of strategies, I think Kerry is going to pull it out in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Minnesota and take the election. Kerry seems in a better position to swing the middle-of-the-road. If Bush hasn't been able to sway those people to his side in the past 4 years, he's not going to suddenly do it in the final days of the campaign. If it's this close, it goes to the challenger. That's my two cents.
 
[quote name='twolvesfan21']Although I have to say that relying on young people that have never voted before to push you over the top doesn't seem to be the safest of strategies, I think Kerry is going to pull it out in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Minnesota and take the election. Kerry seems in a better position to swing the middle-of-the-road. If Bush hasn't been able to sway those people to his side in the past 4 years, he's not going to suddenly do it in the final days of the campaign. If it's this close, it goes to the challenger. That's my two cents.[/quote]

Remember, in Minnesota you can register and vote the same day. When Ventura was running for governor, he was 15% behind in the polls, but got the young vote that came out and registered and voted that day. Don't underestimate the young vote this time.
 
[quote name='twolvesfan21']Although I have to say that relying on young people that have never voted before to push you over the top doesn't seem to be the safest of strategies, I think Kerry is going to pull it out in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Minnesota and take the election. Kerry seems in a better position to swing the middle-of-the-road. If Bush hasn't been able to sway those people to his side in the past 4 years, he's not going to suddenly do it in the final days of the campaign. If it's this close, it goes to the challenger. That's my two cents.[/quote]

Why not just claim that except for PAD, Big Nick and myself every American will be voting for Kerry?

Could you have selected a more perfect outcome for Kerry?

CTL
 
[quote name='Ruined']
As for polls in 2000, Zogby predicted it would be a tie and that turned out to be the result of the race, not all polling organizations put Bush ahead.

In 2000, 2 days before the election, Zogby had Bush ahead of Gore 47-46. This year, 2 days before the election Zogby has Bush ahead of Kerry 48-47.
[/quote]

John Zogby was on the Daily Show last week saying he personally predicts Kerry will win.
 
I find it rather doubtful that there'll be a clear winner. I think that, regardless of the outcome of the election, there's going to be 50,000 lawsuits on both sides accusing the other of any type of fraud that they can think of.

In the end, I suspect that Bush will 'win'. Despite being a Kerry supporter, this doesn't actually bother me, because I'm quite certain that Bush isn't going to make it all the way through his term - the scandals are going to keep building up until eventually he'll be forced to resign. I actually think another 4 years of Bush is going to be sufficient to destroy the Republican party (these things have happened before it American politics. Its not as far fetched as you may think) and badly damage the Democratic party.

With any luck, we'll pull through with new, 'cleaner', less corrupt parties, and American politics will wind up cleaner than they have been in a century. For a while, at least. Corruption invariably creeps into any system over time, and you need an occasional trautatic event to reset things.
 
[quote name='CTLesq']I believe there are three key states: Ohio, Iowa and I don't know recall the third one.

Everything else is irrelevant - win 2 out of 3 of those states and you win the election.[/quote]

Recall my earlier prediction...Whoever carries Ohio will be the next president. Overall, I don't trust any polls. Does anyone know how they are conducted? I know I have never been contacted to participate in a poll. It seems like the number selected would be statisticly insignificant, but I admit I am not very knowledgeable about statistics.
 
I don't think any of the polls this year matter. From Bush's 12 point lead after the Republican convention to the 1-6 point leads he has now I think they've all been wrong. Personally I think the polls have been all wet all year. Why? I'll tell you after the election when Bush wins.
 
[quote name='PittsburghAfterDark']I don't think any of the polls this year matter. From Bush's 12 point lead after the Republican convention to the 1-6 point leads he has now I think they've all been wrong. Personally I think the polls have been all wet all year. Why? I'll tell you after the election when Bush wins.[/quote]

And what will you say when Bush loses?
 
[quote name='ZarathosNY']And what will you say when Bush loses?[/quote]

He'll blame evil Democrats for rigging the election, of course.
 
[quote name='CTLesq']
Why not just claim that except for PAD, Big Nick and myself every American will be voting for Kerry?

Could you have selected a more perfect outcome for Kerry?

CTL[/quote]


Yeah I understand where you're coming from, and I fully recognize Bush has got about half of the country on his side and that's no small number. At the same time, it's not the most ideal situation for an incumbent. And to your second question, yes I could imagine a more perfect outcome for Kerry. If I'm wrong about the whole thing, hey it's just a guess.
 
[quote name='eldad9']Bush.

"Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything." - Josef Stalin.[/quote]

"One death is a tragety, one million deaths is a statistic" -Joseph Stalin

I hope Americans realise what we are doing is wrong.
 
I think that kerry will win and it will be a landslide.

If I had one wish though it would be for bush to win the popular vote but lose the electoral college. But I really doubt that will happen.
 
Actually my absolute dream for an outcome tonight is a electoral college dead heat, 269-269.

Then the election is thrown to the House of Representatives and they vote for Bush and then the Senate votes for Cheney.

I would laugh my farking ass off at the reaction of the left if the popular vote lead to absolutely nothing.
 
I think NBC was saying that if the democrats win the senate, that could mean they elect Edwards as vice-president. That would be weird - Bush/Edwards :shock:
 
[quote name='PittsburghAfterDark']Actually my absolute dream for an outcome tonight is a electoral college dead heat, 269-269.

Then the election is thrown to the House of Representatives and they vote for Bush and then the Senate votes for Cheney.

I would laugh my farking ass off at the reaction of the left if the popular vote lead to absolutely nothing.[/quote]

I had assumed that under this scenario the results would be as you stated. However, this was covered on TV. The voting would be done by the newly elected congress. If the Democrats could somehow regain control of the Senate, Edwards would certainly then be elected vice president. As for the House, I thought that the Repulicans would have the edge since they control the house. According to the news, however, each representative does not get to vote. It is one vote per state. I didn't get to hear what their thoughts were on who would get voted in as president although I assume it would still be Bush. Depending upon the results of the election, however, the presidency could conceivably go to Kerry in this situation. If there is a tie, you will no doubt hear cries of getting rid of the electoral college by whichever party loses.
 
This is the year of Massachusetts - the Patriots won the superbowl, the Red Sox won the World Series, and Kerry will win the election.
 
[quote name='E-Z-B']This is the year of Massachusetts - the Patriots won the superbowl, the Red Sox won the World Series, and Kerry will win the election.[/quote]

And when Kerry wins, how long do you think PAD will stay away from the boards?
 
[quote name='E-Z-B']Until the Republicans start smearing the democrats again.[/quote]

That would probably be immediately after Kerry is declared the winner (assuming he wins, of course).
 
[quote name='PittsburghAfterDark']Actually my absolute dream for an outcome tonight is a electoral college dead heat, 269-269.

Then the election is thrown to the House of Representatives and they vote for Bush and then the Senate votes for Cheney.

I would laugh my farking ass off at the reaction of the left if the popular vote lead to absolutely nothing.[/quote]

So it is your absolute dream that the people of the United States are denied the right to choose the leader of their country for two elections in a row?
 
[quote name='E-Z-B']Until the Republicans start smearing the democrats again.[/quote]

"again"?

It has been non-stop for 13 years so far, it never stopped.
 
If Kerry does win, just imagine this scene:

Bush sitting in the Oval Office, shocked, not knowing what to do, just like when he was reading about a goat to school children on 9/11, and wondering about what happened to his mission from God to rid the earth of terrorists and homosexuals.
 
bread's done
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