Posted 03 January 2008 - 01:54 AM
it IS confirmed for a US release, but there's never been a date beyond a very generic 2008. nintendo's press site has always just said "TBA" for the release, so yeah... all the dates that got thrown around were placeholders to get the game in the system for pre-orders.
my theory... nintendo knows they have a hit on their hands, but it needs to be marketed properly. look at brain age. same situation. how long was brain age out in japan before it came overseas? i think the 2nd one was released there before we had the first, right?
the first goal in nintendo's mind, i think, meet the demand and get systems on shelves. people interested in wii fit as a system seller won't buy it if they can't find the system. so when will that be? who knows at this point...
then, it still has to be marketed so that the 'correct' audience sees it, the new casual gamers. for instance, my father knows about brain age because of ads run in newsweek magazine. developing the proper marketing strategy takes a bit of time... which they've hopefully started, but needs to be enacted.
i don't think nintendo is worried about stepping on other games. i'd bet that they see the target audience as totally different from anything else. those that pick up wii fit (again, nintendo's eyes) want unique gameplay and weight loss gimmicks. they're not the same people buying mario kart and smash bros, just as the 'gamers' that want those games (nintendo's eyes) don't want to stand up and balance.
so what does that mean? your guess is as good as mine... let's say shipments and supply increase by march (being generous?), i'd say the game comes out... early summer if we're lucky. sell it as a 'stay in shape over the summer' thing? or perhaps late summer, where nintendo likes to position big titles like they did with metroid this past year. or, perhaps most likely, is hold it until christmas 08 and give it the 'finally the wii is in stores for christmas, with a weight loss add on' spin.