Hurricane Sandy - new weaker storm to hamper recovery possible next week

800 miles wide, the entire thing is projected to have 80mph winds including the eye and not diminishing 400 miles in either direction.

My basement is going to flood.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...f6660e6-1f6e-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html

Posted at 09:55 AM ET, 10/26/2012 Hurricane Sandy may be unprecedented in East Coast storm history

By Jason Samenow


European model simulation for Hurricane Sandy - on its approach to the mid-Atlantic - with a minimum pressure of 934 mb. (Weatherbell.com) With computer models locked in on the eventuality of a punishing blow for East Coast from Hurricane Sandy (with the latest model runs favoring the northern mid-Atlantic), analyses suggest this storm may be unlike anything the region has ever experienced.
Model simulations have consistently simulated minimum pressures below 950 mb, which would be the lowest on record in many areas.
“MODELS SHOW PRESSURE WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NJ/NY COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS [HURRICANE])”, writes NOAA’s Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC).
Connecticut meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan noted there has only been one tropical storm with the pressure below 960 mb in the last 60 years in the Northeast.
Bob Henson of the University Center for Atmospheric Research adds:
While a couple of hurricane landfalls in Florida have produced pressures in this range, most cities in the Northeast have never reached such values, as is evident in this state-by-state roundup. The region’s lowest pressure on record occurred with the 1938 hurricane at Bellport, Long Island (946 hPa).
In the mid-Atlantic region, here are some record low pressures, which could be blown away - depending on the track of the storm:
Baltimore: 971 mb
Richmond: 966 mb
(Source: extremeweatherguide.com)
NOAA’s HPC cautions that sometimes models lower pressure in these storms too much, and favors Sandy to bottom out near 965 mb on its approach to the East Coast - which would still be in record territory in many areas.
You might ask yourself, aren’t hurricanes supposed to weaken as they head north? Why are these pressures so low? Or as the Weather Channel’s Bryan Norcross put it: “What the hell is going on?”
Norcross’ answer: “This is a beyond-strange situation. It’s unprecedented and bizarre.”
He then offers a hypothesis (which I agree with):
The upper-air steering pattern that is part of the puzzle is not all that unheard of. It happens when the atmosphere gets blocked over the Atlantic and the flow over the U.S. doubles back on itself. Sometimes big winter storms are involved.
The freak part is that a hurricane happens to be in the right place in the world to get sucked into this doubled-back channel of air and pulled inland from the coast.
And the double-freak part is that the upper level wind, instead of weakening the storm and simply absorbing the moisture - which would be annoying enough - is merging with the tropical system to create a monstrous hybrid vortex. A combination of a hurricane and a nor’easter.
A simpler explanation: the clash of the cold blast from the continental U.S. and the massive surge of warm, moist air from Hurricane Sandy will cause the storm to explode and the pressure to crash.
These historic low pressure levels simulated by the model are equivalent to a category 3 or 4 hurricane, which have peak winds over 115 mph. But Sandy’s winds will not be that high, because as it transitions into this hybrid hurricane-nor’easter, its core will unwind. So its peak winds will diminish, but strong winds will be felt over a vast area. Think of a compressed slinky expanding as you let it go.
WJLA meteorologist Ryan Miller notes 66,549,869 people live in the National Hurricane Center’s track zone for Sandy. A large percentage of these people will likely contend with tropical storm force winds - 40-60 mph, if not somewhat greater.
I’ll conclude with this note posted in the blog by AccuWeather senior Vice President Mike Smith:
A very prominent and respected National Weather Service meteorologist wrote on Facebook last night,
I’ve never seen anything like this and I’m at a loss for expletives to describe what this storm could do.

To those on the East Coast, stay safe!

Yup, these extreme weather events sure are happening more frequently. Can't blame global warming, cause the science is all hokum those weasels say.

Flying to Orlando tomorrow morning and then right back into it on my return trip to DC Tuesday!

I work a rotating shift as an engineer so I am working this weekend but off Monday and Tuesday. I'm up in RI so not currently looking like a hit (maybe? I don't follow it that closely when it is far off) but I am glad I am not gonna be at work for it. I was working when that blizzard hit last year and boy did it suck working. Power outages are very bad for the machines and make a huge huge huge mess. Especially when they happen 4 times in a 12 hour period.

This is another LOL movement... the media calls it "Frankinstorm" umm ok............

[quote name='ITDEFX']This is another LOL movement... the media calls it "Frankinstorm" umm ok............[/QUOTE]

They're calling it that because there's a chance it will merge with two other storms in the northeast, not because it's so powerful right now.

[quote name='ITDEFX']This is another LOL movement... the media calls it "Frankinstorm" umm ok............[/QUOTE]



Educate yourself before making a statement like that.

It's thanks to this that the area I'm in(western ohio) is said to get the first snow of the season on Halloween.

It's also having communities wondering if they should go through with a trick or treat night this year.

[quote name='Blaster man']800 miles wide, the entire thing is projected to have 80mph winds including the eye and not diminishing 400 miles in either direction.

My basement is going to flood.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...f6660e6-1f6e-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html

Posted at 09:55 AM ET, 10/26/2012 Hurricane Sandy may be unprecedented in East Coast storm history

By Jason Samenow


European model simulation for Hurricane Sandy - on its approach to the mid-Atlantic - with a minimum pressure of 934 mb. (Weatherbell.com) With computer models locked in on the eventuality of a punishing blow for East Coast from Hurricane Sandy (with the latest model runs favoring the northern mid-Atlantic), analyses suggest this storm may be unlike anything the region has ever experienced.
Model simulations have consistently simulated minimum pressures below 950 mb, which would be the lowest on record in many areas.
“MODELS SHOW PRESSURE WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NJ/NY COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS [HURRICANE])”, writes NOAA’s Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC).
Connecticut meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan noted there has only been one tropical storm with the pressure below 960 mb in the last 60 years in the Northeast.
Bob Henson of the University Center for Atmospheric Research adds:
While a couple of hurricane landfalls in Florida have produced pressures in this range, most cities in the Northeast have never reached such values, as is evident in this state-by-state roundup. The region’s lowest pressure on record occurred with the 1938 hurricane at Bellport, Long Island (946 hPa).
In the mid-Atlantic region, here are some record low pressures, which could be blown away - depending on the track of the storm:
Baltimore: 971 mb
Richmond: 966 mb
(Source: extremeweatherguide.com)
NOAA’s HPC cautions that sometimes models lower pressure in these storms too much, and favors Sandy to bottom out near 965 mb on its approach to the East Coast - which would still be in record territory in many areas.
You might ask yourself, aren’t hurricanes supposed to weaken as they head north? Why are these pressures so low? Or as the Weather Channel’s Bryan Norcross put it: “What the hell is going on?”
Norcross’ answer: “This is a beyond-strange situation. It’s unprecedented and bizarre.”
He then offers a hypothesis (which I agree with):
The upper-air steering pattern that is part of the puzzle is not all that unheard of. It happens when the atmosphere gets blocked over the Atlantic and the flow over the U.S. doubles back on itself. Sometimes big winter storms are involved.
The freak part is that a hurricane happens to be in the right place in the world to get sucked into this doubled-back channel of air and pulled inland from the coast.
And the double-freak part is that the upper level wind, instead of weakening the storm and simply absorbing the moisture - which would be annoying enough - is merging with the tropical system to create a monstrous hybrid vortex. A combination of a hurricane and a nor’easter.
A simpler explanation: the clash of the cold blast from the continental U.S. and the massive surge of warm, moist air from Hurricane Sandy will cause the storm to explode and the pressure to crash.
These historic low pressure levels simulated by the model are equivalent to a category 3 or 4 hurricane, which have peak winds over 115 mph. But Sandy’s winds will not be that high, because as it transitions into this hybrid hurricane-nor’easter, its core will unwind. So its peak winds will diminish, but strong winds will be felt over a vast area. Think of a compressed slinky expanding as you let it go.
WJLA meteorologist Ryan Miller notes 66,549,869 people live in the National Hurricane Center’s track zone for Sandy. A large percentage of these people will likely contend with tropical storm force winds - 40-60 mph, if not somewhat greater.
I’ll conclude with this note posted in the blog by AccuWeather senior Vice President Mike Smith:
A very prominent and respected National Weather Service meteorologist wrote on Facebook last night,
I’ve never seen anything like this and I’m at a loss for expletives to describe what this storm could do. [/QUOTE]

the freeze when everyone loses their power.... just think Free ice rink


STAY SAFE

It's october 27th. If it gets cold enough to freeze it certainly won't stay frozen long; especially where the storm is supposed to hit hardest (Carolina's up).

Well still a few days early but in CT the coast is going to get the worst.
Inland only getting around 3 inches over the next few days. The problem is I live near trees and they are saying constant 35mph+ winds with strong gusts. I'm ok with losing power and cleaning up branches (again) but trees falling on houses is a big no-no. I regret not cutting some trees down last year after the Shocktober snow storm.

Doesn't look too bad here in Boston metro... It's definitely good for us that it's curving inwards way south of us.

I haven't checked the tidal charts, but by the looks of the last day or so it looks like we're right around spring tide. It'll be interesting to see how high the water's going to get with a couple inches of rain and a storm surge.

One of the charts I saw looks like it's going to curve towards Pennsylvania. Since I'm off Tuesday and don't go in until Wednesday night, hopefully I can avoid the worst of it there, but I work outside that night and Monday so I'm sure it'll still be a wet one potentially.

That said, it can rain as much as it wants, just as long as we don't lose power. I guess if it does happen though, better it happens this week than the week of the election.

Yikes, I live in Baltimore, MD. Yeah, stores are packed.

[quote name='JStryke']One of the charts I saw looks like it's going to curve towards Pennsylvania. Since I'm off Tuesday and don't go in until Wednesday night, hopefully I can avoid the worst of it there, but I work outside that night and Monday so I'm sure it'll still be a wet one potentially.

That said, it can rain as much as it wants, just as long as we don't lose power. I guess if it does happen though, better it happens this week than the week of the election.[/QUOTE]

We live kind of close to each other, and I pretty much hope for the same too. Don't want a massive power outage for a while. I live up high on a hill so I'm not flooding.

Flight from DC to Orlando was a little bumpy but nothing to bad. Now going back to DC on Tuesday may be a different story. That is if I even get to fly back in at all ok Tuesday.

Filled up gas in my car, bought a bunch of water, two cases of beer, and have plenty of food to last a few days.

Bring that shit. Philly's supposed to get hit pretty bad, but not as much as parts of coastal New Jersey.

They always say it's going to be big and bla bla but it never is for me. I'm in central jersey. Not even worrying about it at all. Hope the rest of you guys aren't going to get too screwed. Be safe, people.

[quote name='mr_burnzz']They always say it's going to be big and bla bla but it never is for me. I'm in central jersey. Not even worrying about it at all. Hope the rest of you guys aren't going to get too screwed. Be safe, people.[/QUOTE]

Yep. Looks like much ado about nothing in Central Maine but then again we were never supposed to get the to worse of it.

Hope the rest of you, especially those on the coast luck out. I can take these storms all day long--it's the January/February ice storms I don't like.

Update (BTW, I use the capital weather gang because in past experience they have not hyped shit up and have been fairly accurate)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...43-11e2-ba31-3083ca97c314_blog.html#pagebreak

Posted at 11:09 AM ET, 10/27/2012 Hurricane Sandy still poised to deliver a historic blow to the northeast U.S.

By Brian McNoldy




At first glance, it would appear that Sandy is not the threat it used to be. It is a minimal hurricane, and looks less organized on satellite. DO NOT BE FOOLED! Sandy is already taking on some extratropical characteristics, and the lack of a traditional tropical appearance (symmetric eye, eyewall, etc) does not mean it’s any less of a risk.
As of 11 a.m., the center is located about 355 miles southeast of Charleston, SC and the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center gives it an intensity of 75 mph, and a pressure of 958 mb, which is considerably lower than last night.
It is possible that Sandy could even completely lose its status as a tropical storm or hurricane, and still be a terrible hybrid/extratropical storm with the same destructive power as a major hurricane. Do not focus on what category it is and make plans based on that. Sandy is still forecast to intensify as it heads north and interacts with energy from the approaching trough and front (through a process called “baroclinic enhancement”).






The current size is really big, and it’s getting bigger. Tropical storm force winds now reach 450 miles out from the center, so at its forward speed of 9 mph, places could begin experiencing tropical storm conditions 45+ hours prior to the arrival of the center. That has serious implications for preparations, because it becomes difficult and dangerous to do outdoor work in tropical storm conditions. Today is the day to wrap up preparations.
A state of emergency has been declared in Virginia, Maryland, D.C., Pennsylvania, New York, Maine, New Jersey and Connecticut. New Jersey has also begun limited coastal evacuations including the southern barrier islands. Delaware is right behind if nothing changes. Additional evacuations and state of emergency issuances are likely today.




The infrastructure (power, roadways, trains, busses, airlines) in these states is preparing for the storm as best they can and preparing customers for the anticipated cancellations in the next few days.
Models continue to agree on a very intense storm coming ashore somewhere between the Delmarva peninsula and Rhode Island (the greatest concentration of models as well as the official NHC forecast are around New Jersey), but locations hundreds of miles away will feel its effects, so don’t focus too much on the exact track.

Now for a post on my personal commentary. I was at the store yesterday buying a loaf of bread and a gallon of milk for the kids along with some hot dogs and other shit that we need for the week (even without the storm) plus some foods that don't need to be cooked (though technically hot dogs don't). While there, I saw some woman shopping, she had 2 kids. Her shopping cart was overflowing. She had 4 loaves of bread and 4 gallons of milk. I mean come the on. She could have bought two of each and been fine. Now someone else isn't going to get bread and milk. WTF is wrong with people? I bet her bread molds before she eats it all. Also, the gas stations are full of people...

[quote name='Blaster man']I mean come the on. She could have bought two of each and been fine. Now someone else isn't going to get bread and milk. WTF is wrong with people? I bet her bread molds before she eats it all. [/QUOTE]


You can freeze bread and milk. Frozen milk isn't the best for drinking, but it works fine for cooking.

Seems like normal Florida weather. :3
Stay safe everyone.

[quote name='blindinglights']You can freeze bread and milk. Frozen milk isn't the best for drinking, but it works fine for cooking.[/QUOTE]

Good point. What I was getting at is buying that much before a hurricane will make someone else not have any.

[quote name='Blaster man']Good point. What I was getting at is buying that much before a hurricane will make someone else not have any.[/QUOTE]


It just doesn't seem like an unusual amount to me, especially if she has more kids and a husband at home. I guess I didn't just immediately assume she was hoarding.

I am being told this is going to hit West Virginia - but on our Local news websites it doesn't show much. Hm.

[quote name='Superstar']I am being told this is going to hit West Virginia - but on our Local news websites it doesn't show much. Hm.[/QUOTE]

I don't believe it man

[quote name='WV Matsui']I don't believe it man[/QUOTE]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...61-11e2-ba31-3083ca97c314_blog.html#pagebreak

Will it snow? Toward the end of the storm on Tuesday, D.C.’s west/northwest suburbs, especially Frederick/Loudoun counties and spots over 1,000 feet, could see some snowflakes, but accumulation isn’t likely. Heavy snow is likely in the mountains of West Virginia and southwest Virginia (and maybe Western Maryland), with some accumulations over a foot combined with wind gusts over 50 mph resulting in power outages.


One model suggests a little wet snow could fall west of town if enough cold air wraps in.



What are the worst- and best-case scenarios? As of now, we are probably looking at either a “very bad” scenario (70% chance) or a “worst-case” scenario (30% chance). See our storm scenario post for a full explanation.





How strong will the winds be and what is the risk of power outages? Right now we think peak winds late Monday into early Tuesday will be around 25-45 mph sustained west of I-95 with gusts to 45-60 mph, and 30-50 mph sustained east of I-95 with gusts to 50-65 mph. In a worst-case scenario, winds could be more like 30-45 mph sustained west of I-95 with gusts to 45-60 mph, and 35-55 mph sustained east of I-95 with gusts to 55-70 mph. Either way, power outages are likely and many could be without power for multiple days.




How much rain will we get? What about flooding? Right now we’re estimating rainfall totals of 3-6” west of I-95 and 4-8” east of I-95, resulting in flooding of low-lying areas and rivers/streams/creeks. In a worst-case scenario, rainfall could be more like 4-7” west of I-95 and 5-10” east of I-95, resulting in more severe flooding. In either case, these are average estimates and locally higher or lower totals are always possible.

Why isn’t Sandy going out to sea? To put it simply, there’s a traffic jam in the atmosphere. A “blocking” area of high pressure west of Greenland and a big ocean storm to its east are working to prevent a cold front coming from the west from pushing Sandy out to sea.


Isn’t the storm not supposed to be a hurricane once it gets here? Technically, yes. The storm is losing its tropical characteristics as it moves north into cooler air. But, it’s expected to strengthen again as an unusual pattern featuring multiple jet streaks (rivers of fast-moving winds high up in the atmosphere) pumps the storm with a new shot of energy.


What will schools and governments (federal and local) do on Monday-Tuesday? Seems likely there will be a lot of closings.


What about coastal flooding? Major coastal flooding is possible for Maryland and Delaware beaches. In the worst-case scenario, severe to historic coastal flooding is possible with 48 hours or more of onshore flow. The combination of a storm surge of 5 feet and astronomically high tides could raise water levels 10 feet above normal.


How does this compare to other historic storms? Many have compared Sandy to the Perfect Storm of 1991, and experts have warned it may be even worse. Generally speaking, though, each storm has its own character and sometimes you just can’t compare until all is said and done.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/211343.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

wont happen but say it would of ..

if it hit new york city head on would it flooded out all of the subways or is there a way to protect them from something like this

[quote name='slidecage']wont happen but say it would of ..

if it hit new york city head on would it flooded out all of the subways or is there a way to protect them from something like this[/QUOTE]

They would shut down the Subways and other Mass Transit. They're talking about doing it anyway at 7PM Sunday.

http://transportationnation.org/201...-aka-frankenstorm-could-shut-down-nyc-subway/

http://transportationnation.org/2012/10/27/ny-gov-orders-preparations-for-transit-system-shutdown/

[quote name='mitch079']They would shut down the Subways and other Mass Transit. They're talking about doing it anyway at 7PM Sunday.

http://transportationnation.org/201...-aka-frankenstorm-could-shut-down-nyc-subway/

http://transportationnation.org/2012/10/27/ny-gov-orders-preparations-for-transit-system-shutdown/[/QUOTE]

i mean they would be down for days or months since how would they get the water out of them,,,, and a major cold front came in and froze all of that water ...


that would be one freaking mess

And this is why I prefer the Capital Weather Gang. As I said earlier, I've used them in the past and NEVER had problems with them exaggerating to get viewers/clicks. They said that WV and western VA can get up to a foot of snow.

Now look at ABC...
http://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-sandy-east-coast-braces-superstorm/story?id=17578128#.UIyFBIY4fPo

The storm will affect the eastern third of the country -- not just the coast -- and include inland flooding around Maryland and Pennsylvania and up to two feet of snow in West Virginia, said Louis Uccellini, director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Normal weathercasters will throw out the most extreme possibility no matter how unlikely.

[quote name='mr_burnzz']They always say it's going to be big and bla bla but it never is for me. I'm in central jersey. Not even worrying about it at all. Hope the rest of you guys aren't going to get too screwed. Be safe, people.[/QUOTE]

I'm from Central Jersey too, it was hilarious last time when the last hurricane came and everybody was freaking out at my local Costco and were buying power generators left and right, after the storm passed Costco got an influx of people returning said (unopened) power generators.

East Coast CAG's: stay safe! (especially the NJ CAG's) By the way what games will you guys be playing as you wait out the storm?

[quote name='aronater']East Coast CAG's: stay safe! (especially the NJ CAG's) By the way what games will you guys be playing as you wait out the storm?[/QUOTE]

Awesome deal on BioShock 1 + 2 on Amazon right now...probably those

[quote name='aronater']East Coast CAG's: stay safe! (especially the NJ CAG's) By the way what games will you guys be playing as you wait out the storm?[/QUOTE]
Metro 2033


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...9c-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html#pagebreak

Posted at 11:09 PM ET, 10/27/2012 Hurricane Sandy: Raging winds and high water to leave mark on Mid-Atlantic



By Jason Samenow
Sandy’s approach to the Mid-Atlantic region this evening is palpable. Its sprawling cloud shield has overspread the region and winds are already gusting over 30 mph at the Maryland and Delaware beaches.
At 11 p.m., Sandy was 360 miles east southeast of Charleston, South Carolina with sustained winds of 75 mph. The central pressure was down to 960 mb.
Reading through blogs and recent statements from the National Weather Service, I’m presently most impressed by two things:
1) Sandy’s incredible size and its associated wind field
2) The amount of water it’s going to push ashore at the beaches
Sandy’s size and associated wind
Meteorologist Angela Fritz of wunderground notes Sandy is now tied for the second largest tropical cyclone since 1988.
“Sandy’s tropical storm-force winds now extend 450 nautical miles from the center on the northeast side of the hurricane,” Fritz writes. “This is a very, very large storm, and I suspect the #1 spot (Olga of 2001) is in jeopardy, as well.”
Evidence of the storm’s unusual size? It’s more than 300 miles east of South Carolina, and in eastern North Carolina, the National Weather Service has logged its first reports of downed trees.
I’m not the only one impressed by how big this storm is and how far from its center it’s generating hazardous winds. Writes our local National Weather Service office:
...CANNOT RECALL EVER SEEING MODEL FORECASTS OF SUCH AN EXPANSIVE AREAL WIND FIELD WITH VALUES SO HIGH FOR SO LONG A TIME. WE ARE BREAKING NEW GROUND HERE.
Reminder: a high wind watch covers the region Sunday night through Tuesday, for sustained winds of 35-45 mph and gusts to 60 mph.
Water at the Maryland and Delaware Beaches, the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac
The water is rising in Ocean City, Maryland, where levels are already 1.5 feet above average. Water levels are forecast to reach as much as 4 feet above normal by Monday with wave heights of 8 to 14 feet. Says the National Weather Service:
SEVERE FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF HIGH TIDE MONDAY MORNING. . . . WATER LEVELS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO OCEAN CITY COULD RIVAL THOSE REACHED IN GLORIA IN 1985.
A similar situation is forecast for the Delaware beaches where coastal flood warnings and high surf warnings are also in effect. Assuming the storm moves north of the Maryland and Delaware beaches, winds will become offshore, ending the coastal flood risk Monday night into Tuesday.
The situation is not as serious for the western shores of the Chesapeake Bay and the Tidal Potomac. Some minor flooding is possible into Monday, with levels around 1 foot above normal. By Tuesday, some moderate flooding could occur, with levels up to 1.5 to 3 feet above normal and a coastal flood watch is in effect. By comparison, levels were up to 9 feet above normal during Isabel.






http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/031332.shtml?tswind120#contents


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/zoom/hltimages.shtml

[quote name='aronater']East Coast CAG's: stay safe! (especially the NJ CAG's) By the way what games will you guys be playing as you wait out the storm?[/QUOTE]

I've been replaying valkyria chronicles. For those that have played it, you know how much time this game requires! Frustrating game though..

[quote name='mr_burnzz']I've been replaying valkyria chronicles. For those that have played it, you know how much time this game requires! Frustrating game though..[/QUOTE]

I thought that game was supposed to be good? I still haven't bought it...

Today (Sunday): Breezy showers are possible today. It’s probably wetter east of I-95 than west. Heavier rain likely moves into the Eastern Shore during the afternoon. Winds from the north increase to near 15-20 mph with gusts around 25-30 mph. Those cool winds and cloudy skies keep temperatures cooler than we’ve seen lately with highs only near 60. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Steadier rain becomes likely overnight and should get heavier toward morning. Winds from the north pick up in strength as well, as gusts may reach 30-35 mph with sustained winds near 15-25 mph. Those north winds put a chill in the air, with overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow (Monday): The center of the storm is still well out to sea, but out ahead of it, our weather takes a marked turn for the worse. Periods of heavy rain are expected throughout the day and winds continue to increase. During the morning, sustained winds increase to 25-30 mph with gusts near 45 mph, and during the afternoon they step up to 35-40 mph sustained with gusts near 60 mph. Widespread power outages could begin to occur, especially later in the day, as winds topple trees in the rain-soaked ground. And severe flooding is expected at the Maryland and Delaware beaches. Temperatures through the day are raw and cool, mainly near 50 to the low 50s under overcast skies. Confidence: Medium


Tomorrow night: Bouts of heavy rain and high winds continue overnight as the center of Sandy approaches the New Jersey coastline. Winds may increase even more, to 35-50 mph sustained with gusts up to around 65 mph. Low-lying areas and areas with poor drainage may begin to see significant flooding. Don’t plan to travel unless it’s an emergency due to the risk of flooding and falling trees and limbs. Rainfall accumulations of 2-4”+ are likely by morning. Confidence: Medium


As Tuesday dawns, the center of the storm is forecast to be inland, just to the north of our area. That keeps us in the zone for more steady rain and driving winds. Accumulating snow will likely be falling in the mountains of West Virginia and Western Maryland as well. Some flakes may even be seen in the far west and northwest suburbs, for example in Loudoun and Frederick counties especially at elevations above 1,000 feet, but no accumulation is expected. Highs probably don’t make it out of the 40s as cold air continues to wrap into the storm. Another 1-2”+ of rain is possible and winds stay strong, from the northwest at 25-35 mph, gusting to 50 mph. Confidence:Medium


The storm should slowly begin to weaken Tuesday night, but that doesn’t mean to let your guard down. Brief periods of heavy rain are still possible but should become more intermittent. Winds remain high with gusts of 35-45 mph still possible. Confidence: Low-Medium


The storm should slowly begin to weaken Tuesday night, but that doesn’t mean to let your guard down. Brief periods of heavy rain are still possible but should become more intermittent. Winds remain high with gusts of 35-45 mph still possible. Confidence: Low-Medium


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/085338.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

Everyone is freaking out (as always) - except I'm willing to bet the town doesn't cancel my daughter's soccer game today. They play through anything! I may go to the food store but I would be going anyway. Not sure what else I can do to get ready but I'm not convinced that this is going to be some crazy storm other than the fact that it might rain for 5 days straight.

[quote name='Blaster man']I thought that game was supposed to be good? I still haven't bought it...[/QUOTE]

The game is wonderful but kinda difficult in some areas. And sometimes one of your team members dies and I can't have that! I have to replay the level which could take an hour. Sometimes even longer. That's the frustrating part.

[quote name='Javery']Everyone is freaking out (as always) - except I'm willing to bet the town doesn't cancel my daughter's soccer game today. They play through anything! I may go to the food store but I would be going anyway. Not sure what else I can do to get ready but I'm not convinced that this is going to be some crazy storm other than the fact that it might rain for 5 days straight.[/QUOTE]

Well, GL with the store. I'm sure it's going to be insane today. I went on Friday. As far as the storm, I think the wind is supposed to be the worst. I don't know where you live but a few months ago we had a massive storm that blew through the east coast rather quickly but resulted in some folks not having power for a week or longer. This will probably be at least that bad.

[quote name='mr_burnzz']The game is wonderful but kinda difficult in some areas. And sometimes one of your team members dies and I can't have that! I have to replay the level which could take an hour. Sometimes even longer. That's the frustrating part.[/QUOTE]
I've been waiting for a few years now for the game to drop to $10. Maybe this holiday season will finally be the time. I bought Dead Space 2 on Kmart clearance (limited edition with Extraction included) for 9.97 last night.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...0b-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html#pagebreak

Wind
This image shows projected wind speeds (from the GFS model) at an altitude of about 3,000 feet at 8 p.m. Monday night in knots. Notice they are near 90 knots over Washington, D.C. and Baltimore, and over 60 knots over the entire megalopolis from D.C. to Boston. Thankfully, winds at 3,000 feet translate to lesser values at the surface (where we live) - probably by about 25 percent. But - assuming this model is in the ball park - winds across the entire northeast I-95 corridor may well be gusting to 45-70 knots Monday evening, or 50-80 mph!



(WeatherBell.com)

What would winds of 50-80 mph up and down the East Coast mean in terms of power outages? Researchers at Johns Hopkins University have developed a model for that:


Seth Guikema (pronounced Guy-keh-ma) and his team have developed a computer model built on outage data from 11 hurricanes to estimate the fraction of customers who will lose power, based on expected gust wind speed, expected duration of strong winds greater than 20 meters per second, and population density.




They find, conservatively, 10 million customers along the Eastern seaboard will lose power from Sandy. The image below indicates where outages are projected to be most highly concentrated.


Rain
Sandy is predicted to drop a ton of water: from 4-8” in the Washington, D.C. area to 5-10” over the Delmarva peninsula.



How historic would the amount of rain forecast be? Weather Decisions Technology (WDT) has prepared an analysis shown below. Its model projects Sandy to be a 500-to-1,000 year precipation event for some parts of the Mid-Atlantic with a 100-250 year precipitation event for broader areas mainly over the Delmarva peninsula. In the immediate Washington, D.C. area, it suggests a 1-10 year type event.



I would caution that the exact areas where the heaviest rain will fall is very difficult to predict. So while this map gives an idea of the historic potential of this event, the most extreme values will probably not coincide exactly where modeled here.


Storm Surge
There is the possibility of a devastating 6-11 foot storm surge in Long Island Sound, Raritan Bay and New York Harbor. Low-lying areas of New York City (where evacuation orders have been issued) are likely to be flooded, and possibly parts of the subway system. Farther south, the storm surge will gradually decrease but major to severe coastal flooding is anticipated from the Mid-Atlantic on northward. This map shows a projection.



Mountain snow
Several feet of snow are possible at high elevations in West Virginia, which would be record-breaking for this time of year. The map below shows one projection for snow totals from the NAM model. Couple these snow amounts with winds which may gust over 50 mph, and power outages are very likely in mountainous West Virginia. Heavy snow may fall in the mountains of southwest Virginia and western North Carolina as well.











http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/152346.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents









http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/152346.shtml?tswind120#contents

Just brought in all the deck furniture - that was a pain in the ass.

[quote name='Pookymeister']Just brought in all the deck furniture - that was a pain in the ass.[/QUOTE]

Ha! I did that yesterday AM, but our deck is on the third floor and we live in a row home, so yeah - super pain in the ass.

[quote name='mykevermin']Ha! I did that yesterday AM, but our deck is on the third floor and we live in a row home, so yeah - super pain in the ass.[/QUOTE]

I brought my stuff in yesterday too though I left the heavy tempered glass table out there. I think it weighs enough...at least I hope so. I guess if I start to see it moving around, I'll run out and bring it in. I'm not about to bring in the propane tanks...

I think tonight I'll turn the heat up more than normal then tomorrow when I'm awake, I'll turn it up pretty warm so when the power goes out it will stay warm longer. Also thinking about putting the fridge and freezer on colder settings.

Oh, and I notice that the birds are starting to act strangely. They all seem to be out looking for food and moving around erratically.

Just chilling out in the Chicago suburbs reading about all of your impending weather follies. Hope you all stay safe. Also, is it ok to hoard video games if afterwards you put them in the freezer?