[quote name='RedvsBlue']I mean, I get that they have to make some kind of move now for the future but like you said Fallon hasn't built up any kind of significant fanbase. Their problems all started when they decided Conan wasn't doing as well as they wanted and rather than wait for his ratings to build, they cut him and brought Leno back. Now they're in a position where someone with even less draw than Conan has to take over.[/quote]
Conan's ratings weren't really as much of an issue as The Jay Leno Show's ratings were. Leno was absolutely bombing in the 10pm timeslot to the point where it was actually hurting the ratings of the local new affiliates that followed, but NBC created a contract that backed them into a corner. They couldn't cancel Leno's new show within 2 years and, if I recall, the contract also prevented the show from being bumped past midnight. They basically just orchestrated a situation where it was cheaper to get rid of Conan than it was Leno. Fallon, at least, won't have to worry about that.
Though, I do think you sort of see the same reactionary mentality in both decisions. They figured getting rid of Conan over Leno would benefit them the best at that point, not really giving any thought to the future. And now, they're so scared of Jimmy Kimmel taking away the younger demographic that they've decided to react before that's even a reality.