Jump to content


- - - - -

Fantasy Football "Who Should I Start" Thread, 2013


#31 Danimal   CheapAssing it Since 2003 CAGiversary!   2683 Posts   Joined 11.4 Years Ago   Has been playing Grim Fandango
PC

Posted 09 August 2013 - 11:30 AM

I'm not touching Foster this year.

I've got the 5th pick in my draft this year, and I've been wondering if Jamaal Charles will still be there when I pick.  Now I'm starting to think it's possible that Foster will still be there.  At a certain point, it gets tough to pass on a guy like that even with injury concerns.  I won't be taking him even if he is there, though- I'll go with either Charles, Marshawn Lynch, CJ Spiller, or Trent Richardson.


Posted Image

#32 DestroVega   Life is short... stunt it CAGiversary!   7121 Posts   Joined 7.8 Years Ago  

DestroVega

Posted 09 August 2013 - 04:46 PM

^ as you should.

Destro1.gif            DestroVega.jpg


#33 bigdaddybruce44   Murders & Executions CAGiversary!   13294 Posts   Joined 7.5 Years Ago  

bigdaddybruce44

Posted 09 August 2013 - 05:16 PM

I think in all the mocks I have done so far, Charles is off the board by 4. Foster could very well be around. Lots of people are down on him, especially FF vets who feel they got burned by him last year. It was nearly the unanimous #1, and though he had a solid season, he did take slight step back in overall production.



#34 Danimal   CheapAssing it Since 2003 CAGiversary!   2683 Posts   Joined 11.4 Years Ago   Has been playing Grim Fandango
PC

Posted 09 August 2013 - 10:16 PM

I haven't done any mocks yet, but yeah, I had a feeling it was wishful thinking to hope I could grab Charles at 5.  Then again, the guy who has the 4th pick also had the #4 pick last year, and he took Aaron Rodgers with it.  The guy picking 3rd this year has a history of not taking RB's with his first pick (last year he took Tom Brady at #6), so you never know.

 

Still, I think I'm going to be mentally flipping a coin to choose between Lynch and Spiller.  I had Lynch last year, and he led me to the title, but I have a feeling Spiller is going to have a breakout year.


Posted Image

#35 bigdaddybruce44   Murders & Executions CAGiversary!   13294 Posts   Joined 7.5 Years Ago  

bigdaddybruce44

Posted 09 August 2013 - 11:57 PM

I think you alluded to an important aspect of doing mocks: you aren't drafting against your league. People in your league have certain tendencies and different knowledge levels. In all of the PPR mocks I have done, Megatron is off the board before I get to pick at #8. But I know a lot of the people in my league don't do a lot of PPR leagues and love RBs, so I am hoping he falls to me.



#36 Duo_Maxwell   CAGiversary! CAGiversary!   5747 Posts   Joined 10.8 Years Ago  

Duo_Maxwell

Posted 10 August 2013 - 05:31 AM

I've got the 5th pick in my draft this year, and I've been wondering if Jamaal Charles will still be there when I pick.  Now I'm starting to think it's possible that Foster will still be there.  At a certain point, it gets tough to pass on a guy like that even with injury concerns.  I won't be taking him even if he is there, though- I'll go with either Charles, Marshawn Lynch, CJ Spiller, or Trent Richardson.

Richardson at #5 overall is too much of a reach I think, I think he's late first round material at best. The Browns I know want to build the whole offense around him but his durability is cause for concern and i don't think they'll be able to it (they also don't have any other real skill players to support him). He was already held out of the pre-season opening game. The Browns and some people may not read into that, but to me it says they are treating him with kid gloves & that even they doubt he can pulloff the workload they are talking about for 16 games.

 

I def. think either Charles, Lynch or Spiller will be around, but I'd personally take a more proven and durable back like Ray Rice before Richardson.



#37 Danimal   CheapAssing it Since 2003 CAGiversary!   2683 Posts   Joined 11.4 Years Ago   Has been playing Grim Fandango
PC

Posted 11 August 2013 - 05:00 PM

I won't be going with Richardson.  I pretty much listed those guys in the order of my preference.  If Charles is still there, I'll grab him.  If not, then Lynch.  If he's gone as well, Spiller.  I'm assuming AP and Doug Martin will both be gone, so I didn't even list them.  But that's my personal Top 5- AP, Martin, Charles, Lynch, Spiller, so I'll end up with one of those guys.

 

I do like Richardson slightly more than Rice this year, though.  I have a feeling Bernard Pierce is going to cut into Rice's carries more this year than in the past, whereas Richardson is it in Cleveland.


Posted Image

#38 merchie89   CAGiversary! CAGiversary!   2379 Posts   Joined 5.3 Years Ago  

Posted 11 August 2013 - 05:12 PM

Spiller or T rich supposedly will be ran into ground this season. Thats why I like picking 7 not 3
(Actual register date 3/3/2009, not sure why I switched accounts)

#39 t.neikirk  

t.neikirk

Posted 12 August 2013 - 08:18 PM

If Aaron Rodgers is available in the first round grab him if not get a running back. Peyton and Tom Brady will be available in the 2nd for sure.



#40 Viva Las Vegas   CAGiversary! CAGiversary!   1794 Posts   Joined 10.2 Years Ago  

Viva Las Vegas

Posted 12 August 2013 - 09:28 PM

I need some input on what you guys think of taking Jimmy Graham a little early. He just seems like such a point advantage over all other te's. I'm in a 8-10 person league and thinking about grabbing him in the early in the 2nd round. Our league is set up with 2x WR, 2 RB, and 1 WR/RB. I know their is a big priority in loading up on RBs, but I thought grabbing Graham in rd 2 might be worth it. Any opinions?



#41 DestroVega   Life is short... stunt it CAGiversary!   7121 Posts   Joined 7.8 Years Ago  

DestroVega

Posted 12 August 2013 - 10:40 PM

I need some input on what you guys think of taking Jimmy Graham a little early. He just seems like such a point advantage over all other te's. I'm in a 8-10 person league and thinking about grabbing him in the early in the 2nd round. Our league is set up with 2x WR, 2 RB, and 1 WR/RB. I know their is a big priority in loading up on RBs, but I thought grabbing Graham in rd 2 might be worth it. Any opinions?


I think he is more of an advantage in leagues with 12-14 teams. You can do it in smaller leagues, but I would really have to not like my other options.

Destro1.gif            DestroVega.jpg


#42 Danimal   CheapAssing it Since 2003 CAGiversary!   2683 Posts   Joined 11.4 Years Ago   Has been playing Grim Fandango
PC

Posted 13 August 2013 - 12:42 AM

I think I'd actually be more willing to grab Graham early in a smaller league.  I did a 10 team league one year and it felt like everyone had a team of All Pro's.  I can only imagine how stacked the teams are in an 8 team league.  With something like that, you can reach a little more on an early pick and not be as screwed later.  If you take Graham early in round 2 of a 12 or 14 team league, the pickings are going to be very slim when you're getting ready to take your RB2 or WR2.  In a smaller league, some better options may still be around later, making it a little less of a downside for grabbing an elite QB or TE in the early rounds.


Posted Image

#43 bigdaddybruce44   Murders & Executions CAGiversary!   13294 Posts   Joined 7.5 Years Ago  

bigdaddybruce44

Posted 13 August 2013 - 01:01 AM

In my opinion, this year, your priority (especially in standard scoring leagues) should be running backs...running backs...running backs! Look at the number of backfields that are very much in question, either because of players who can't stay healthy, shared playing times, or teams that simply do not run the ball a lot. After the 14th or 15th pick in most standard drafts, you are starting to get into very, very murky waters. Guys like MJD (health concerns), SJax (age and potential workload concerns), Reggie Bush (far more valuable in PPR leagues), DeMarco Murray (health concerns) are the type of backs going later in the 2nd round and early 3rd. Wait longer than that, and you start seeing people like Lamar Miller (totally unproven), McFadden (has never played more than 13 games in his career), and LeVeon Bell (rookie). There are a couple of backfields, mainly the Jets and the Packers, that I wouldn't touch with a ten-foot pole.

 

This is in stark contrast to quarterbacks, which are basically growing on trees. If you wait until the 3rd round, you might still be able to get Peyton, but you will definitely be able to get Cam or Brady. Wait even longer, and you can get RGIII (just make sure you have a handcuff, just in case), Luck, and Russell Wilson around 6,7 or even 8!



#44 Viva Las Vegas   CAGiversary! CAGiversary!   1794 Posts   Joined 10.2 Years Ago  

Viva Las Vegas

Posted 13 August 2013 - 01:39 AM

Thanks for the input regarding Graham!

#45 Danimal   CheapAssing it Since 2003 CAGiversary!   2683 Posts   Joined 11.4 Years Ago   Has been playing Grim Fandango
PC

Posted 13 August 2013 - 03:38 AM

In my opinion, this year, your priority (especially in standard scoring leagues) should be running backs...running backs...running backs! Look at the number of backfields that are very much in question, either because of players who can't stay healthy, shared playing times, or teams that simply do not run the ball a lot. After the 14th or 15th pick in most standard drafts, you are starting to get into very, very murky waters. Guys like MJD (health concerns), SJax (age and potential workload concerns), Reggie Bush (far more valuable in PPR leagues), DeMarco Murray (health concerns) are the type of backs going later in the 2nd round and early 3rd. Wait longer than that, and you start seeing people like Lamar Miller (totally unproven), McFadden (has never played more than 13 games in his career), and LeVeon Bell (rookie). There are a couple of backfields, mainly the Jets and the Packers, that I wouldn't touch with a ten-foot pole.

 

This is in stark contrast to quarterbacks, which are basically growing on trees. If you wait until the 3rd round, you might still be able to get Peyton, but you will definitely be able to get Cam or Brady. Wait even longer, and you can get RGIII (just make sure you have a handcuff, just in case), Luck, and Russell Wilson around 6,7 or even 8!

Absolutely.  I've been doing a few mock drafts over the past couple days, always picking 5th like I will be in my real draft, and it's already a tough call when it gets back around to me in the 2nd round (20th pick overall).  I always take a RB in the first round, but by the time I pick again in round 2, I'm already not very excited about the RB's that are left.  Especially when WR's like Marshall, Fitzgerald, and even (once) Green are still available.  There are a lot of guys in my league that like to grab an elite WR or QB with their first or second pick (I almost always go RB-RB), so maybe there will be better options left than what I'm seeing in mocks.  I hope so.


Posted Image

#46 bigdaddybruce44   Murders & Executions CAGiversary!   13294 Posts   Joined 7.5 Years Ago  

bigdaddybruce44

Posted 13 August 2013 - 04:11 AM

Yeah, by the time the draft snakes back around to you at 5, there isn't much left. Even at 8, I am finding it hard to get a legitimate 2nd #1 at running back. I am really hoping a couple of people do something really dumb in front of me, like take a QB, so someone else can fall into my lap. If not, I'll be going receiver and trying to stockpile RB sleepers down the road.

 

Geez, you know, you look at each team, there are just so many shitty fantasy situations at running back. Besides the ones I mentioned above, you've got the Panthers, Cardinals, Colts, Rams, Saints, Bengals...geez...not the year of the RB, that's for sure...



#47 Danimal   CheapAssing it Since 2003 CAGiversary!   2683 Posts   Joined 11.4 Years Ago   Has been playing Grim Fandango
PC

Posted 13 August 2013 - 12:22 PM

Bruce, you might find this interesting.  I always keep a list of everyone's draft picks each year, and I save them.  I try to see if I can notice any trends in the ways certain guys draft, for example in what round does this guy tend to take a QB?  When do the DST's usually start to come off the board?  I feel like knowing the other owners tendencies gives me, if not a competitive advantage, at least an idea of when I need to draft certain positions to avoid being on the wrong end of a run at the position.

 

Anyway, looking at the last 4 drafts my league has done, by Rd2-5 (20th pick) there were 12 RB's gone last year, and 11 gone at that point each of the previous three years.  In 2012, only 3 owners picking after 5th went RB-RB with their first two picks (one was me).  In 2011, only one owner did, and he's picking 3rd this year (I had the second pick that year).  In 2010, only 2 owners did (one was me, the other is no longer in the league), and in 2009, only 2 owners did (both pick later than #5 this year)  Among the guys picking behind me this year, over the last 4 years, there have been 15 instances where one of them had a pick 6th or lower, and only 4 times did they go RB-RB with their first two picks.  If these recent trends hold this year, that would put me in the range of grabbing the 12th or 13th RB off the board in Round 2, someone like Stevan Ridley, Reggie Bush, or even possibly Chris Johnson.  I'd take CJ in a heartbeat.  Probably too much to hope for, but we'll see.


Posted Image

#48 bigdaddybruce44   Murders & Executions CAGiversary!   13294 Posts   Joined 7.5 Years Ago  

bigdaddybruce44

Posted 13 August 2013 - 01:14 PM

I'd take CJ, too. A lot of people are down on him, but two things happened that I think have set him up for a good year. They brought in Shonn Green. He's not great, but he was a starting running back last year, and it clearly annoyed CJ a bit. Having a legitimate threat to his number of carries should hopefully light a fire under his ass. The Titans have also really focused on improving the offensive line, which has been dreadful recently.



#49 Danimal   CheapAssing it Since 2003 CAGiversary!   2683 Posts   Joined 11.4 Years Ago   Has been playing Grim Fandango
PC

Posted 13 August 2013 - 02:58 PM

I like CJ a lot this year.  Besides making moves to improve the offensive line, they fired their offensive coordinator, Chris Palmer.  CJ made no secret of the fact that he didn't like the scheme they used last year, and has said he's more comfortable with the new scheme.  He broke off a 58 yard TD run in their preseason opener.  I know last year was considered a down year for him, but he still put up over 1400 total yards, plus 3 TD runs over 80 yards.  I think he's going to have a big year.


Posted Image

#50 frostybroc   ROFLTrooper CAGiversary!   1237 Posts   Joined 5.6 Years Ago   Has been playing The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
PC

Posted 13 August 2013 - 03:31 PM

I would grab him third if possible. Seems dependent on scoring, that RBs are a necessity for a successful team outside of PPR.



#51 Duo_Maxwell   CAGiversary! CAGiversary!   5747 Posts   Joined 10.8 Years Ago  

Duo_Maxwell

Posted 14 August 2013 - 05:21 AM

I don't think I've taken back-to-back RBs in a draft since about 2005. In fact if trends continue like they have in the NFL, there's less and less evidence to believe that that is solid strategy. I'm all for picking an RB in round 1, especially if you in the top 7 or 8 but the NFL is more and more becoming a passing heavy league. Introduce RB tandems and more athletic QBs as the enmerging norm and there is about zero reason to pick a RB in rounds 1 & 2. 8+ years ago you had guys like Tomlinson competing for TD records. Now days the vast majority of RBs score fewer touchdowns than many WRs or even some TEs.

 

If the best player left is a RB and there's no viable Top 5 QB or Top 5 WR/TE left then ok. But margin for error is very thin and you will get left in the dust in basically every other single scoring category if you over-reach to get 2 RBs and are saddled with say Percy Harvin & Pierre Garcon as your WR1 & WR2, then good luck to you. 

 

All good draft strategy should take into account how the league is scored. For example in PPR leagues, if you are sitting around to say late round 4 or round 5 to make your first WR or TE pick the it will pretty difficult to win that league.



#52 Danimal   CheapAssing it Since 2003 CAGiversary!   2683 Posts   Joined 11.4 Years Ago   Has been playing Grim Fandango
PC

Posted 14 August 2013 - 12:23 PM

I don't think I've taken back-to-back RBs in a draft since about 2005. In fact if trends continue like they have in the NFL, there's less and less evidence to believe that that is solid strategy. I'm all for picking an RB in round 1, especially if you in the top 7 or 8 but the NFL is more and more becoming a passing heavy league. Introduce RB tandems and more athletic QBs as the enmerging norm and there is about zero reason to pick a RB in rounds 1 & 2. 8+ years ago you had guys like Tomlinson competing for TD records. Now days the vast majority of RBs score fewer touchdowns than many WRs or even some TEs.

I get what you're saying, and you're right- every year the league becomes more and more pass-happy.  But I feel like this makes RB's even more valuable in the early rounds just from a supply and demand point of view.  There are so few every down workhorse backs nowadays that if you can start two every week, you've got an edge over teams that maybe have one good RB and a black hole at the RB2 spot.  Also, as the passing numbers continue to climb, there are more and more quality QB's and WR's available.  True, there are only so many top tier studs to go around, but the gap between a guy like Brees (who you'd need to use a 1st or early 2nd round pick to get) and guys like Stafford, Ryan, or Luck (who you may be able to get as late as round 4 or even 5) is shrinking.  Meanwhile, once you get past the 10th-15th RB's, production at the position falls off a cliff.

 

 

 

 

If the best player left is a RB and there's no viable Top 5 QB or Top 5 WR/TE left then ok. But margin for error is very thin and you will get left in the dust in basically every other single scoring category if you over-reach to get 2 RBs and are saddled with say Percy Harvin & Pierre Garcon as your WR1 & WR2, then good luck to you. 

I don't mean to imply that I think it's written in stone that I have to go RB-RB with my first two picks.  Obviously it depends on what's left when it comes around to my pick again.  If the best thing left at RB is the 14th guy on my list, but my #3 WR is still there, then that's a no-brainer.  Last year, picking last (12th), I went RB-RB with my first two picks, then with my 3rd and 4th picks (36th and 37th overall) I grabbed Andre Johnson and Hakeem Nicks.  I was much happier with those WR's than I would have been with any of the RB's left at that point.  I think that's my main thing with taking RB's early; I just dread how pathetic the options become later.

 

 All good draft strategy should take into account how the league is scored. For example in PPR leagues, if you are sitting around to say late round 4 or round 5 to make your first WR or TE pick the it will pretty difficult to win that league.

Absolutely.  My league does a half-point per reception, so a guy like Ray Rice gets a bit of a bump, but not quite as much as in a full PPR league.  It's definitely important to keep that stuff in mind.  Plus, you can draft a great team using almost any strategy for your early picks if you're able to hit on some good value picks later on.  Two years ago when Arian Foster had his big breakout year, he pretty much single-handedly led me to my leagues Super Bowl.  I drafted him as my 3rd RB in the 7th round (81st overall) and got lucky.  Last year I was targeting Eli Manning in the 5th round, but the guy picking one spot ahead of me took him.... so I had to settle for Peyton.  Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. :lol:


Posted Image

#53 frostybroc   ROFLTrooper CAGiversary!   1237 Posts   Joined 5.6 Years Ago   Has been playing The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
PC

Posted 14 August 2013 - 01:18 PM

I think I lucked out on FAs yesterday. I think the rest of my league slept on it. I was able to grab:

 

Carson Palmer

Kenbrell Thompkins

Kevin Ogletree

Ronnie Hillman

Shonn Greene

Jacquizz Rodgers

Ryan Broyles

Roy Helu

 

I know a lot of these are handcuffs, and that was my point for trade bait, but some I think some will be starting by Week 4 or so like Jacquizz. I wanted Marcel Reece as well, but hit my salary cap.



#54 fatmanforlife99   I need a weapon. CAGiversary!   2828 Posts   Joined 10.0 Years Ago  

fatmanforlife99

Posted 14 August 2013 - 05:32 PM

What do you guys think about this trade, just a side note, this is a keeper league.

 

I have the 8th pick in my 12 man half-ppr league and the person I am trading with has the second overall pick. A few qbs go in the first round every year, we have 6pt passing tds. If AP makes to him at 2 and Calvin is at 8 he will make the trade.

 

I get

Doug Martin

his 2nd pick(23)

6th pick(71)

11th pick(122)

 

he gets

1st pick(8th)

2nd pick(17th)

6th pick(65th)

11th pick(128)

 

Also, I would get to keep Doug Martin with my 4th round pick next season if I choose him over Luck next year. We only get to have one keeper.


There are those who said this day would never come. What are they to say now?

1237720547_chuck_norris.gif

 

 


#55 kube00   Keeping in Cheap since 2005 CAGiversary!   9068 Posts   Joined 8.5 Years Ago  

Posted 14 August 2013 - 07:43 PM

Draft is in a week and 1/2, Im in a keeper league this year. I took a spot of a guy who left. Looks like the only two Im keeping are Morris and Seattle's D both who got picked up super late. He does have Tony Romo and I think he picked him up in the 4th....


CAG TradeList
Co-Founder of The Gamer's Lounge The Gamer's Lounge: All About video games!
Former EIC of Goozernation.com 


#56 Duo_Maxwell   CAGiversary! CAGiversary!   5747 Posts   Joined 10.8 Years Ago  

Duo_Maxwell

Posted 15 August 2013 - 04:46 AM

I'd def keep Morris (I elected to keep him in one of my leagues, only will cost me a 15th round pick). What pick will Seattle's D cost you? Normally I wouldn't advocate taking a Defense as a keeper, but if it only costs you like 9th round pick or later that is not too bad considering Seattle is looking to be top tier defense (fantasy wise at least).



#57 JStryke  

Posted 16 August 2013 - 08:41 PM

So I have my first draft of the year tomorrow and am trying to figure out my first / second round strategy. Drafting 12 of 12, I'm tempted to go QB. While QB is deep this year and in any other of my leagues I 99% would not even consider it, the reason I'm considering it in this league is because of the money.

 

Aside from winning the championship, we are also giving small payouts to the person who has the top player for the week and for the top scoring team of the week. So while it could hurt my team as far as the championship goes, for this extra money potential I am thinking of going Brees or Rodgers at the wrap around. I'm just wondering more so if I'm crazy for even considering such a thing.


I stream on Twitch. At least two times a week. http://www.twitch.tv/jstryker416

JStryker416.png


#58 fatmanforlife99   I need a weapon. CAGiversary!   2828 Posts   Joined 10.0 Years Ago  

fatmanforlife99

Posted 16 August 2013 - 09:20 PM

So I have my first draft of the year tomorrow and am trying to figure out my first / second round strategy. Drafting 12 of 12, I'm tempted to go QB. While QB is deep this year and in any other of my leagues I 99% would not even consider it, the reason I'm considering it in this league is because of the money.

 

Aside from winning the championship, we are also giving small payouts to the person who has the top player for the week and for the top scoring team of the week. So while it could hurt my team as far as the championship goes, for this extra money potential I am thinking of going Brees or Rodgers at the wrap around. I'm just wondering more so if I'm crazy for even considering such a thing.

If its a 6pt passing td league, go for it if not take a rb.


There are those who said this day would never come. What are they to say now?

1237720547_chuck_norris.gif

 

 


#59 Danimal   CheapAssing it Since 2003 CAGiversary!   2683 Posts   Joined 11.4 Years Ago   Has been playing Grim Fandango
PC

Posted 16 August 2013 - 10:30 PM

What do you guys think about this trade, just a side note, this is a keeper league.

 

I have the 8th pick in my 12 man half-ppr league and the person I am trading with has the second overall pick. A few qbs go in the first round every year, we have 6pt passing tds. If AP makes to him at 2 and Calvin is at 8 he will make the trade.

 

I get

Doug Martin

his 2nd pick(23)

6th pick(71)

11th pick(122)

 

he gets

1st pick(8th)

2nd pick(17th)

6th pick(65th)

11th pick(128)

 

Also, I would get to keep Doug Martin with my 4th round pick next season if I choose him over Luck next year. We only get to have one keeper.

 I'm not sure why, but this really confused me yesterday when I was looking at it.  For some reason, I couldn't wrap my head around how it worked.  I must have been tired or something, because when I looked at it today, it immediately made sense to me.  Weird.

 

Anyway, I like the trade.  Is it contingent on Megatron still being there at 8, or will he still make the trade if he's gone before you pick?


Posted Image

#60 fatmanforlife99   I need a weapon. CAGiversary!   2828 Posts   Joined 10.0 Years Ago  

fatmanforlife99

Posted 17 August 2013 - 01:25 AM

Calvin has to be there. Which he will be.

There are those who said this day would never come. What are they to say now?

1237720547_chuck_norris.gif