Fantasy Football "Who Should I Start" Thread, 2013

Danimal

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  Hey Guys!  It's getting to be that time again, that wonderful time of year when we start to plan for our upcoming fantasy football drafts, and we know that the NFL season is just around the corner.  It's time to discuss strategy with our fellow fantasy fans, to pick their brains for who you should select in the first round if you're picking 5th, who you should start at WR2 during your regular guy's bye week, all those agonizing decisions that make fantasy football such an all-consuming obsession.

  If you're new to this thread, welcome!  Don't be shy about asking for help, and don't be afraid to give your own opinions and advice, but please, always be civil.  I ran similar threads to this from 2009-2011, and they've always been a great place to get help with the tough decisions week to week.  I wasn't involved with the thread last year (it got along just fine without me), but I wanted to come back and get the ball rolling this year, since most of us will be having our drafts sometime in the next 30 days.

  Let's talk some fantasy football!

 
This could be a breakout year for Tebow on your fantasy rosters!

No...I'm being serious.
burritoman, I should have mentioned that while using hallucinogenic drugs when posting in this thread is not expressly forbidden, per se, it is strongly discouraged. :lol:

Then again, I guess Brady has to throw to somebody this year. I can tell you this though- if he does have a breakout year, he'll be having it on someone else's team. I can't see myself drafting him under any circumstances.

 
Do you guys have a spot you prefer to draft from?  I mean, I know picking first is always nice, but if you use the serpent style, it's a long, loooong wait between picks.  If you're in the middle of the pack, you have a shorter wait, but miss out on back-to-back picks you get from going first or last.  Also, how do you determine draft order in your leagues?  In mine, we've used virtual dice sites for the past several years.  Everyone rolls a 1000-sided virtual die, lowest roll picks first, highest roll picks 12th.

  Last year I picked 12th, and won my league Super Bowl.  The year before, I picked 2nd and missed the playoffs.  Go figure.

 
Do you guys have a spot you prefer to draft from? I mean, I know picking first is always nice, but if you use the serpent style, it's a long, loooong wait between picks. If you're in the middle of the pack, you have a shorter wait, but miss out on back-to-back picks you get from going first or last. Also, how do you determine draft order in your leagues? In mine, we've used virtual dice sites for the past several years. Everyone rolls a 1000-sided virtual die, lowest roll picks first, highest roll picks 12th.

Last year I picked 12th, and won my league Super Bowl. The year before, I picked 2nd and missed the playoffs. Go figure.
I was listening to ESPN sports radio and one of the sportscasters, don't remember which, said his league picks a 1-12 to determine picks. But instead of what number you pick equaling your spot on the board if you get number one you pick where you want to be on the board.
 
I was listening to ESPN sports radio and one of the sportscasters, don't remember which, said his league picks a 1-12 to determine picks. But instead of what number you pick equaling your spot on the board if you get number one you pick where you want to be on the board.
I wonder how often the guy who draws #1 picks a spot other than first. I could see if everyone chose their spots in turns by the number they drew, and if you had the 5th turn to choose your spot deciding you'd take the wrap-around spot at 12 over being somewhere in the middle, but I can't picture the guy who gets to choose his spot first saying "I think I'll draft from the #9 slot." Never know, though.

We've started rolling the virtual dice to figure out our order, but of course there are always a few stragglers who never read their e-mails, or maybe they want to wait until everyone else has rolled, or whatever, but we're still waiting on four guys to do their rolls. I rolled a 379, which has me 4th at the moment. So I'll be picking somewhere between 4-8, depending on what those last four guys roll. I guess no AP or Foster for me this year.

 
I don't think I know where to pick except for the end of the draft. Picked 9th out of 10th last year and won my league.

A league I've been in for about five years now has an interesting way of drafting. We all make our picks via a hat, but once our numbers are picked, they're placed in a bit of a matrix style. Not sure how to explain it, but I do have the email from the baseball league which lays out the order.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

8 6 7 9 10 1 3 2 5 4

4 5 2 3 1 10 9 7 6 8

5 3 4 1 2 9 8 6 10 7

7 10 6 8 9 2 1 4 3 5

6 8 9 10 7 3 5 1 4 2

2 4 1 5 3 7 10 9 8 6

3 1 5 2 4 8 6 7 10 9

9 10 7 6 8 4 2 5 1 3

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

4 5 2 3 1 10 9 7 6 8

8 6 7 9 10 1 3 2 5 4

7 10 6 8 9 2 1 4 3 5

5 3 4 1 2 9 8 6 10 7

2 4 1 5 3 7 10 9 8 6

6 8 9 10 7 3 5 1 4 2

9 10 7 6 8 4 2 5 1 3

3 1 5 2 4 8 6 7 10 9

6 8 9 10 7 3 5 1 4 2

 
I don't think I know where to pick except for the end of the draft. Picked 9th out of 10th last year and won my league.

A league I've been in for about five years now has an interesting way of drafting. We all make our picks via a hat, but once our numbers are picked, they're placed in a bit of a matrix style. Not sure how to explain it, but I do have the email from the baseball league which lays out the order.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

8 6 7 9 10 1 3 2 5 4

4 5 2 3 1 10 9 7 6 8

5 3 4 1 2 9 8 6 10 7

7 10 6 8 9 2 1 4 3 5

6 8 9 10 7 3 5 1 4 2

2 4 1 5 3 7 10 9 8 6

3 1 5 2 4 8 6 7 10 9

9 10 7 6 8 4 2 5 1 3

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

4 5 2 3 1 10 9 7 6 8

8 6 7 9 10 1 3 2 5 4

7 10 6 8 9 2 1 4 3 5

5 3 4 1 2 9 8 6 10 7

2 4 1 5 3 7 10 9 8 6

6 8 9 10 7 3 5 1 4 2

9 10 7 6 8 4 2 5 1 3

3 1 5 2 4 8 6 7 10 9

6 8 9 10 7 3 5 1 4 2
Huh, that is interesting. So it's still the serpent method, but after the first 2 rounds, it looks like 1-5 gets shuffled, and 6-10 get shuffled, then the new order for those two sets is still set in the serpent pattern. One year my league decided to draw numbers out of a hat and use the serpent, but every 2 rounds, redraw the numbers. So you might get the first overall pick, then pick 12th in the second round, then you might have, say the 9th pick in the 3rd round, which would give you the 4th pick coming back, and so on. A lot like what you guys do, except we didn't bracket the front half and back half of the drafting order. It was a fun experiment, but the next year everyone wanted to go back to straight up serpent.

 
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Nice to see one of my favorite annual threads on CAG is back. I started it last year because Danimal was slacking ;). Good to see you're on the ball this year.

 
But slacking is what I do best. :cool:

Last year was.... well, it's a long and boring story, so I'll just say I'm glad it's a different year now, and I'm itching to get back to football.

 
Whats everyone's thoughts on Arian Foster this year? I play in an auction style keeper league, and decided to pay big bucks for this year.

Team at the moment is:

QB

Stafford - 12

Bradford - 7

Carson Palmer - 5

J Flacco - 8

Schaub - 13

RB

Forte - 12

Sproles 18

Foster - 59

WR

Colston - 30

S.Smith (CAR) - 5

Welker - 21

C. Patterson (MIN) - 8

K

Josh Brown - 1

DST

Pittsburgh - 1

I know Im sitting on 5 QBs, but hoping that they turn out for trade bait.

 
Do you guys have a spot you prefer to draft from? I mean, I know picking first is always nice, but if you use the serpent style, it's a long, loooong wait between picks. If you're in the middle of the pack, you have a shorter wait, but miss out on back-to-back picks you get from going first or last. Also, how do you determine draft order in your leagues? In mine, we've used virtual dice sites for the past several years. Everyone rolls a 1000-sided virtual die, lowest roll picks first, highest roll picks 12th.

Last year I picked 12th, and won my league Super Bowl. The year before, I picked 2nd and missed the playoffs. Go figure.
Its all about playing waivers. Last year was the first year I forgot th edraft so it auto drafted for me. But I made key pickups throught the waiver and won my league.

 
I don't have one. Its not mandatory to have one. I thought of trading Foster and Schaub for Aaron Rodgers, Michael Bush  and CJ Spiller.

 
That might not be a bad trade if you can make it.  Foster is a horse, but counting the playoffs last year he had over 400 carries.  That almost always means a little slippage in production the next year.  I think Spiller is in for a monster year, so that might not be a downgrade at all at RB, and it's definitely an upgrade at QB.

 
That's the sweetest trade you could ask for at this point. Foster is already injured and Schaub is likely to be injured at some point in the season. Rogers bests Schaub in every category as well, Bush is a Matt Forte injury away from seeing 20+ touches a game in their new offesne, and CJ Spiller if healthy can compete for the rushing title this year (finshed 8th last year on just over 200 carries, and besides AP was the only RB to average 6 yds/carry)

 
I proposed and I'm waiting to hear back. Another I was countered with was Brees and Chris Johnson for Foster and Stafford. Any ideas? Chris Johnson is a risk, but I feel better getting a better QB than the slew I have.

 
I don't like that trade as much.  You're giving up more (one nice thing about the first trade was you still had Stafford as a backup if Rodgers went down), and getting less.  I like Spiller better than CJ this year, and having Bush to back up Forte could be important for you, too.  I don't think I'd pull the trigger on this one.

 
I don't like that trade as much. You're giving up more (one nice thing about the first trade was you still had Stafford as a backup if Rodgers went down), and getting less. I like Spiller better than CJ this year, and having Bush to back up Forte could be important for you, too. I don't think I'd pull the trigger on this one.
I'll play Devil's advocate sort of. I like the trade but I don't like it as much with his current team. I'd sit on this offer for abit or maybe counter to get another RB or WR included even if they are just a WR3 or RB3 because Frosty your team is horribly thin at those postions. But this is not a bad deal overall, you essentially are downgrading probably by about 5-8 avg pts/ game by giving up Foster for CJ, but Brees will easily nab you probably an extra 10+ avg more than Stafford or Schaub would so I still think you'd come out slightly ahead. The bigger issue becomes what do you do if one of your RB goes down. For example I would not like the lineup of starting Sproles and CJ every game. Unless you are maybe in a generous PPR league that's clearly not a good idea. Then again you're already in that situation now basically and Brees would be much better than any of the 5 QBs you have.

Have you thought about trying to trade one of your lesser QBs (not Stafford probably) for just a less valued RB or WR? In order for the trade to work it'd probably be someone you'd need to gamble abit on, but come to someone with the right offer & they may give up a "diamond in the rough" type player

 
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On a sidenote, if anyone has an empty spot in their league, pm me! The couple leagues I was in last year hiked up the buy-in fees so I declined :(

 
I'll play Devil's advocate sort of. I like the trade but I don't like it as much with his current team. I'd sit on this offer for abit or maybe counter to get another RB or WR included even if they are just a WR3 or RB3 because Frosty your team is horribly thin at those postions. But this is not a bad deal overall, you essentially are downgrading probably by about 5-8 avg pts/ game by giving up Foster for CJ, but Brees will easily nab you probably an extra 10+ avg more than Stafford or Schaub would so I still think you'd come out slightly ahead. The bigger issue becomes what do you do if one of your RB goes down. For example I would not like the lineup of starting Sproles and CJ every game. Unless you are maybe in a generous PPR league that's clearly not a good idea. Then again you're already in that situation now basically and Brees would be much better than any of the 5 QBs you have.

Have you thought about trying to trade one of your lesser QBs (not Stafford probably) for just a less valued RB or WR? In order for the trade to work it'd probably be someone you'd need to gamble abit on, but come to someone with the right offer & they may give up a "diamond in the rough" type player
Thanks, I'll certainly try to trade one of the QBs for a RB3/WR3.

 
I'm not touching Foster this year.
I've got the 5th pick in my draft this year, and I've been wondering if Jamaal Charles will still be there when I pick. Now I'm starting to think it's possible that Foster will still be there. At a certain point, it gets tough to pass on a guy like that even with injury concerns. I won't be taking him even if he is there, though- I'll go with either Charles, Marshawn Lynch, CJ Spiller, or Trent Richardson.

 
I think in all the mocks I have done so far, Charles is off the board by 4. Foster could very well be around. Lots of people are down on him, especially FF vets who feel they got burned by him last year. It was nearly the unanimous #1, and though he had a solid season, he did take slight step back in overall production.

 
I haven't done any mocks yet, but yeah, I had a feeling it was wishful thinking to hope I could grab Charles at 5.  Then again, the guy who has the 4th pick also had the #4 pick last year, and he took Aaron Rodgers with it.  The guy picking 3rd this year has a history of not taking RB's with his first pick (last year he took Tom Brady at #6), so you never know.

Still, I think I'm going to be mentally flipping a coin to choose between Lynch and Spiller.  I had Lynch last year, and he led me to the title, but I have a feeling Spiller is going to have a breakout year.

 
I think you alluded to an important aspect of doing mocks: you aren't drafting against your league. People in your league have certain tendencies and different knowledge levels. In all of the PPR mocks I have done, Megatron is off the board before I get to pick at #8. But I know a lot of the people in my league don't do a lot of PPR leagues and love RBs, so I am hoping he falls to me.

 
I've got the 5th pick in my draft this year, and I've been wondering if Jamaal Charles will still be there when I pick. Now I'm starting to think it's possible that Foster will still be there. At a certain point, it gets tough to pass on a guy like that even with injury concerns. I won't be taking him even if he is there, though- I'll go with either Charles, Marshawn Lynch, CJ Spiller, or Trent Richardson.
Richardson at #5 overall is too much of a reach I think, I think he's late first round material at best. The Browns I know want to build the whole offense around him but his durability is cause for concern and i don't think they'll be able to it (they also don't have any other real skill players to support him). He was already held out of the pre-season opening game. The Browns and some people may not read into that, but to me it says they are treating him with kid gloves & that even they doubt he can pulloff the workload they are talking about for 16 games.

I def. think either Charles, Lynch or Spiller will be around, but I'd personally take a more proven and durable back like Ray Rice before Richardson.

 
I won't be going with Richardson.  I pretty much listed those guys in the order of my preference.  If Charles is still there, I'll grab him.  If not, then Lynch.  If he's gone as well, Spiller.  I'm assuming AP and Doug Martin will both be gone, so I didn't even list them.  But that's my personal Top 5- AP, Martin, Charles, Lynch, Spiller, so I'll end up with one of those guys.

I do like Richardson slightly more than Rice this year, though.  I have a feeling Bernard Pierce is going to cut into Rice's carries more this year than in the past, whereas Richardson is it in Cleveland.

 
If Aaron Rodgers is available in the first round grab him if not get a running back. Peyton and Tom Brady will be available in the 2nd for sure.

 
I need some input on what you guys think of taking Jimmy Graham a little early. He just seems like such a point advantage over all other te's. I'm in a 8-10 person league and thinking about grabbing him in the early in the 2nd round. Our league is set up with 2x WR, 2 RB, and 1 WR/RB. I know their is a big priority in loading up on RBs, but I thought grabbing Graham in rd 2 might be worth it. Any opinions?

 
I need some input on what you guys think of taking Jimmy Graham a little early. He just seems like such a point advantage over all other te's. I'm in a 8-10 person league and thinking about grabbing him in the early in the 2nd round. Our league is set up with 2x WR, 2 RB, and 1 WR/RB. I know their is a big priority in loading up on RBs, but I thought grabbing Graham in rd 2 might be worth it. Any opinions?
I think he is more of an advantage in leagues with 12-14 teams. You can do it in smaller leagues, but I would really have to not like my other options.
 
I think I'd actually be more willing to grab Graham early in a smaller league.  I did a 10 team league one year and it felt like everyone had a team of All Pro's.  I can only imagine how stacked the teams are in an 8 team league.  With something like that, you can reach a little more on an early pick and not be as screwed later.  If you take Graham early in round 2 of a 12 or 14 team league, the pickings are going to be very slim when you're getting ready to take your RB2 or WR2.  In a smaller league, some better options may still be around later, making it a little less of a downside for grabbing an elite QB or TE in the early rounds.

 
In my opinion, this year, your priority (especially in standard scoring leagues) should be running backs...running backs...running backs! Look at the number of backfields that are very much in question, either because of players who can't stay healthy, shared playing times, or teams that simply do not run the ball a lot. After the 14th or 15th pick in most standard drafts, you are starting to get into very, very murky waters. Guys like MJD (health concerns), SJax (age and potential workload concerns), Reggie Bush (far more valuable in PPR leagues), DeMarco Murray (health concerns) are the type of backs going later in the 2nd round and early 3rd. Wait longer than that, and you start seeing people like Lamar Miller (totally unproven), McFadden (has never played more than 13 games in his career), and LeVeon Bell (rookie). There are a couple of backfields, mainly the Jets and the Packers, that I wouldn't touch with a ten-foot pole.

This is in stark contrast to quarterbacks, which are basically growing on trees. If you wait until the 3rd round, you might still be able to get Peyton, but you will definitely be able to get Cam or Brady. Wait even longer, and you can get RGIII (just make sure you have a handcuff, just in case), Luck, and Russell Wilson around 6,7 or even 8!

 
In my opinion, this year, your priority (especially in standard scoring leagues) should be running backs...running backs...running backs! Look at the number of backfields that are very much in question, either because of players who can't stay healthy, shared playing times, or teams that simply do not run the ball a lot. After the 14th or 15th pick in most standard drafts, you are starting to get into very, very murky waters. Guys like MJD (health concerns), SJax (age and potential workload concerns), Reggie Bush (far more valuable in PPR leagues), DeMarco Murray (health concerns) are the type of backs going later in the 2nd round and early 3rd. Wait longer than that, and you start seeing people like Lamar Miller (totally unproven), McFadden (has never played more than 13 games in his career), and LeVeon Bell (rookie). There are a couple of backfields, mainly the Jets and the Packers, that I wouldn't touch with a ten-foot pole.

This is in stark contrast to quarterbacks, which are basically growing on trees. If you wait until the 3rd round, you might still be able to get Peyton, but you will definitely be able to get Cam or Brady. Wait even longer, and you can get RGIII (just make sure you have a handcuff, just in case), Luck, and Russell Wilson around 6,7 or even 8!
Absolutely. I've been doing a few mock drafts over the past couple days, always picking 5th like I will be in my real draft, and it's already a tough call when it gets back around to me in the 2nd round (20th pick overall). I always take a RB in the first round, but by the time I pick again in round 2, I'm already not very excited about the RB's that are left. Especially when WR's like Marshall, Fitzgerald, and even (once) Green are still available. There are a lot of guys in my league that like to grab an elite WR or QB with their first or second pick (I almost always go RB-RB), so maybe there will be better options left than what I'm seeing in mocks. I hope so.

 
Yeah, by the time the draft snakes back around to you at 5, there isn't much left. Even at 8, I am finding it hard to get a legitimate 2nd #1 at running back. I am really hoping a couple of people do something really dumb in front of me, like take a QB, so someone else can fall into my lap. If not, I'll be going receiver and trying to stockpile RB sleepers down the road.

Geez, you know, you look at each team, there are just so many shitty fantasy situations at running back. Besides the ones I mentioned above, you've got the Panthers, Cardinals, Colts, Rams, Saints, Bengals...geez...not the year of the RB, that's for sure...

 
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Bruce, you might find this interesting.  I always keep a list of everyone's draft picks each year, and I save them.  I try to see if I can notice any trends in the ways certain guys draft, for example in what round does this guy tend to take a QB?  When do the DST's usually start to come off the board?  I feel like knowing the other owners tendencies gives me, if not a competitive advantage, at least an idea of when I need to draft certain positions to avoid being on the wrong end of a run at the position.

Anyway, looking at the last 4 drafts my league has done, by Rd2-5 (20th pick) there were 12 RB's gone last year, and 11 gone at that point each of the previous three years.  In 2012, only 3 owners picking after 5th went RB-RB with their first two picks (one was me).  In 2011, only one owner did, and he's picking 3rd this year (I had the second pick that year).  In 2010, only 2 owners did (one was me, the other is no longer in the league), and in 2009, only 2 owners did (both pick later than #5 this year)  Among the guys picking behind me this year, over the last 4 years, there have been 15 instances where one of them had a pick 6th or lower, and only 4 times did they go RB-RB with their first two picks.  If these recent trends hold this year, that would put me in the range of grabbing the 12th or 13th RB off the board in Round 2, someone like Stevan Ridley, Reggie Bush, or even possibly Chris Johnson.  I'd take CJ in a heartbeat.  Probably too much to hope for, but we'll see.

 
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I'd take CJ, too. A lot of people are down on him, but two things happened that I think have set him up for a good year. They brought in Shonn Green. He's not great, but he was a starting running back last year, and it clearly annoyed CJ a bit. Having a legitimate threat to his number of carries should hopefully light a fire under his ass. The Titans have also really focused on improving the offensive line, which has been dreadful recently.

 
I like CJ a lot this year.  Besides making moves to improve the offensive line, they fired their offensive coordinator, Chris Palmer.  CJ made no secret of the fact that he didn't like the scheme they used last year, and has said he's more comfortable with the new scheme.  He broke off a 58 yard TD run in their preseason opener.  I know last year was considered a down year for him, but he still put up over 1400 total yards, plus 3 TD runs over 80 yards.  I think he's going to have a big year.

 
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