Hello fellow CAGs. I’d like to share something I wrote on Bitcoin a couple years back. Here it is :
Bitcoin : My Perspective
Institutional investors are gearing up to dive head first into the world of blockchain, Bitcoin & cryptocurrencies. This is seen as both a gift & a curse, at least in regards to the price action of Bitcoin. Some point to the All Time High (ATH) of December 2017 when Bitcoin reached the $19,700 range. It’s during this same time frame when futures markets & ETFs were introduced to Bitcoin, leaving many to conclude this caused Bitcoin’s subsequent crash from it’s ATH to around $6,000.
So far in 2018 we have seen a low of around the $6,000 range in early February. This was considered by many crypto enthusiasts to be the “bottom price” of Bitcoin when considering the estimated average electricity cost to mine a single Bitcoin is widely believed to be in the $5,000 to $6,000 range in America.
From there Bitcoin rallied to around $11,800 only to again retrace to the $6,400 range. Then, once again, Bitcoin bounced to the $9,800 range. From there we saw Bitcoin fail to break the major psychological barrier of 10k. It’s an especially large hurdle simply for the fact that Bitcoin’s price would go from a four digit number to a five digit number. Another factor to consider is $10,000 is a major technical analysis resistance barrier. A fast retraction to the 9k range ensued. Following various negative occurrences in the crypto world, Bitcoin saw a further sell off to the $8,400 range.
Then came the news of further China regulations & crack downs on top of the United States government Department Of Justice (DOJ) and the Security & Exchanges Commission (SEC) looking into Bitcoin & Ethereum price manipulation. Those are currently the top 2 cryptocurrencies in the world by total market cap. The SEC also opened investigations looking into Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) to see what regulations are possible, all the while implying most ICOs are purely just scams. The SEC even went as far as to create a fake ICO website that gave a warning about fraudulent investments when people who were accessing the spoof site attempted to purchase their fake ICO cryptocurrency. Then to add further fuel to this fire the top South Korean cryptocurrency exchange was raided by authorities with the #2 & 3 South Korean crypto exchanges having been raided in the previous weeks.
Further Fear Uncertainty & Doubt included the Tether debacle (USDT), Warren Buffet’s rat poison comment, Bill Gates’ comment to short Bitcoin, tax liabilities being unclear for crypto gains, major cryptocurrency exchanges being contacted by various governments around the world to share high profile clientele’s personal info (big money players/ the hundred millionaires & multi-billionaires), the Mt. Gox trustee flooding the market with thousands of Bitcoins by selling directly on the exchanges instead of selling Over The Counter (OTC) to big money players, multiple hacks including the 51% double spend attack on various cryptocurrencies, etc, etc. All of this FUD combined created a very bearish market sentiment and lead Bitcoin into a decline to the $7,000 range by 5/29/2018.
The price of Bitcoin is completely speculative but many in the crypto world consider Bitcoin’s “bottom price” to be around the $6,000 range. This is because the estimated average electricity cost to mine a single Bitcoin in the United States is considered by many to be around the $5,000 to $6,000 range. Various locations around the world with the cheapest electricity cost on the planet are targeted by major players in the crypto mining world to set up their mining headquarters. Logically, this is the more bang for your buck way to go about things. The lower the cost to mine, the higher the profits per Bitcoin.
Average Joe : “Hey what’s all this Bitcoin crap I been hearing about again lately?”
Nancy Naysayer : “Oh what’s a damn Bitcoin really worth?! I’ll tell you what, nothing!”
It’s widely believed by a majority of everyday folks that Bitcoin is indeed all one big scam, smoke & mirrors, the new version of the tulip bubble, the biggest Ponzi scheme in human history. It’s not hard to understand why the masses won’t consider an answer to a math problem to be worth several thousand dollars. Because when you break it down to the meat of it all, one Bitcoin is really just a very hard computation to reach, an answer to a extremely difficult math problem. Bitcoin is simply a line of coding that was created from mining chips, ASICs mining chips (Application Specific Integrated Circuit chips) specifically, working in conjunction with super computers. The people doing this “mining” are called the “miners” of Bitcoin. If you’ve ever bought, spent, sold or hold any fraction of a Bitcoin, they’re the people who mined it.
The technical know how & funds needed to purchase the proper equipment to mine Bitcoin & other cryptocurrencies can be a daunting task. But those that do decide to partake should know it is highly advised to first factor in the cost of electricity in their particular area. That, and make sure you’ll 100% be able to keep your mining rig, the ASICs chips specifically, at a very cool temperature or you’ll be in for trouble. Also worth mentioning are “mining pools” which is when miners use their equipment to work together to mine cryptocurrencies at a more efficient rate. I’m unsure of the success rates of mining pools versus mining on your own.
The price of Bitcoin & all cryptocurrencies are purely speculative so naturally market sentiment has a huge effect on Bitcoin’s price action. Market sentiment is basically just another term for how people in general currently feel about Bitcoin & cryptocurrencies as a whole. Cryptocurrency use case scenarios versus actual current day to day usage should also be researched & considered. The current total value of cryptocurrency market caps, Bitcoin dominance over all other cryptos, daily trade volume, and various technical analysis methods should also be factored in. I highly recommended for any person looking into Bitcoin & cryptocurrencies to do their own research in regards to these topics.
There is no doubt in the minds of the many blockchain technology enthusiasts that a new way of commerce & world economics is on the horizon. Whether or not Bitcoin is going to be a major part of that remains to be seen. But most in the crypto space can agree that blockchain technology itself is here to stay. While Bitcoin may or may not fall to the wayside, along with all other cryptocurrencies, blockchain is poised to change how industries & people in general transact with one another. This implementation of blockchain technology into modern society over the next several years will undoubtedly change the world as we know it. Similar to the effects the internet has had over the past couple decades, many claim we won’t see how we lived without blockchain technology 10 or 20 years from now. Can you imagine the world with no internet? It’s a daunting thought & a major step backwards for mankind had it not ever been created.
Some envision a not so distant future where the youth of tomorrow will have grown up never knowing the need for a bank account & never actually handling paper & coin money (fiat currency). I’m not here to claim I truly believe it’s going to be specifically one way or the other. I’m just merely presenting my findings. Is there a middle ground where fiat currencies & cryptocurrencies can peacefully co-exist? Who knows? But I think it is possible. The biggest Ponzi scheme of all time? Maybe. But institutional investors sudden interest in Bitcoin leads me to believe otherwise. All just smoke & mirrors? Possibly. Tulips, Beanie Babies, one big scam, etc. It’s all been said before about Bitcoin. It takes about 10 or so years for a financial bubble to truly pop according to many well respected economists. So we see day traders betting on Bitcoin’s demise by taking out short positions on certain exchanges that allow that function such as BitMex, AVAtrade and Plus500. We also have many Bitcoin believers that won’t be the least bit surprised if we see Bitcoin’s next huge parabolic price surge sometime soon.
But we can’t forget to mention our over bloated, debt inflated, fragile, frail as can be, on thin ice American economy. The whisper of hyper inflation is in the air, talk of another recession, the next great depression, possibilities of a trade war with China, the 10 year treasury yield hitting a widely feared percentage, a 10 year bull run in the stock market which some consider to be dangerously close to an inevitable crash which has consistently followed the past 3 decades stock market bull runs. All possible catalysts OR deterrents to Bitcoin’s price. All things that should be considered.
If 2008’s bailouts taught us anything it’s that when these banksters are truly in trouble they’ll just print trillions of more dollars and dispense it to their business associates as they see fit. If that’s not a scam I don’t know what is. Don’t get me wrong. I hope our big beautiful economic prosperity USA bubble never truly burst but I would also never rule it out. Something to keep in mind, never invest more than you can afford to loose. Furthermore, in the back of every investor’s mind should be the golden rule of investments which is to never loose money. Protect your capitol. Easier said than done, especially in the world of Bitcoin & cryptocurrencies.
HODL (hold/Hold On for Dear Life) a thing of the past? Do you believe there’s a logical probability of a 50/50 chance of boom or bust? Murphy’s Law? Slow growth or fast death? Fast growth or slow death? Is there actually a middle ground? Bitcoin’s 10 year life span reads all kinds of which ways, depending on the viewer’s perspective. Can technical analysis even be applied to Bitcoin? What about Bitcoin’s adoption rate versus technical advances? Meaning, when will Bitcoin payments be more widely accepted versus how fast will the technology itself advance. All factors to consider going forward.
What can you actually buy with Bitcoin? Microsoft dot com accepts payments in Bitcoin as well as overstock dot com. You can also purchase a Lamborghini with Bitcoins. But is Bitcoin already widely considered more of a store of value than a usage coin to spend? The spend-ability is definitely there since one Bitcoin can break down into hundreds of millions of “satoshis”. A satoshi is a smaller percentage of a Bitcoin, basically a tiny fraction of a Bitcoin. Other crypto enthusiasts feel rather than being a type of digital money Bitcoin is better suited as a digital gold per say. They argue this is where Bitcoin’s value & purpose could ultimately end up. An alternative store of value over gold or silver, stocks and bonds & fiat currencies. Please google “Xapo the vaults where Bitcoin billionaires hide their fortunes.”
How & why did Bitcoin gain so much value so quickly over only one decade? The financial crisis of 2008 was the main catalyst that caused an unknown person to create Bitcoin. They used the alias Satoshi Nakamoto. They wrote & released “The White Paper” which explains & details the fundamentals of Bitcoin & blockchain technology. Bitcoin is created & runs off of blockchain technology. This Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) the blockchain utilizes can be used in various ways such as a payment method in the form of Bitcoin. Essentially it’s a peer to peer payment system in which the transaction is irreversible, permanently recorded on the blockchain & unable to be deleted or altered, all while remaining completely anonymous for both the sender & receiver. When a transaction occurs on the blockchain network it is simultaneously verified by all users of the blockchain before it can be accepted as a legitimate transaction. With this verification process in place, Bitcoin is considered to be a completely safe payment system since blockchain users from around the globe would never be able to legitimize a fraudulent transaction onto the blockchain’s ledger. Thus it is believed Bitcoin & blockchain technology can completely eliminate the need for third party payment mediators such as Bank of America, MasterCard or PayPal just to name a few.
Silk Road is considered to be a major factor in the parabolic rise in Bitcoin’s price. Silk Road was a website that operated on the dark web where buyers and sellers used Bitcoin to buy & sell various different illegal items such as drugs, guns & child pornography. Other suspected illegal activities using Bitcoin as the payment method on Silk Road supposedly even included murder for hire. Money laundering & tax evasion are two other major crimes Bitcoin has been used for. Other illicit uses for Bitcoin include rumored so called “red rooms” on the dark web where viewers pay a fee in Bitcoin to be granted access to view an actual torture session/murder.
So can Bitcoin really shake that black market, criminal element, drug stench, money laundering stigma? Or has it already? Many Bitcoin enthusiasts will point out that since it’s inception Bitcoin has never once on any single day been more widely used across the globe to engage in illegal activities than the U.S. dollar has. This is a fact that can’t be denied. Do we just disregard the U.S. dollar since other people use it to engage in criminal activities? No, we don’t. Will Bitcoin be denied a broader acceptance for these same reasons? It’s possible.
Having to buy Bitcoin to be able to purchase other “ALT coins” (an alt coin is any other cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin, aka an alternative to Bitcoin) on the major cryptocurrency exchanges (GDAX/CoinBase, Poloniex, Kraken, Gemini, Binance, Bitfinex, Bittrex, Bitstamp) created the need for exchange specific coins or “exchange coins” such as Binance Coin (BNB). How these new exchange specific ICOs will play out will be interesting to say the least especially with the recent investigations being opened by the SEC & DOJ into ICOs & BTC (Bitcoin) & ETH (Ethereum) price manipulation. Which exchanges are centralized? Which ones are decentralized? Why does that matter? What are the risks involved in keeping crypto on an exchange even for a short period of time? Do you use a hard wallet, a hot wallet or a cold wallet for the storage of your cryptocurrencies? All valid concerns to consider.
Please note: Ledger Nano S and TREZOR hard wallets should ONLY be purchased directly from their official company website!! Nowhere else can be trusted.
Bitcoin being the first cryptocurrency on the market gives it a huge advantage in the crypto space in my opinion. The mind share it holds over all other cryptocurrencies will be hard to overtake. It is The Godfather of cryptocurrencies that all other cryptos are based on. Yes I understand MySpace, AOL, Pets dot com and many other early to their field successes saw their demise. Nobody Beats The Wiz is dethroned by Circuit City, then Circuit City gets dethroned by Best Buy. I get it. Can Bitcoin really actually be dethroned? Yes. The “flippening” can theoretically occur but I feel it’s as likely as someone coming along and dethroning NetFlix. Possible? Yes. But I feel it’s extremely unlikely. Furthermore, if I had to make a choice I’d bet Ethereum would be the cryptocurrency to dethrone Bitcoin’s dominance. Not Bitcoin Cash (BCH). Please google “the Flippening” for further information & theories on this topic.
17 million Bitcoin have been mined so far. There’s only 21 million total Bitcoin available. Estimations point to the year 2140 for all 21 million BTC to be completely mined.
With up to 4 million BTC gone, suspected to be lost forever, theoretically the BTC price should be about 18% higher at the completion of mining.
As of today’s writing Bitcoin is considered un-hackable & has never been compromised. The best hackers, programmers & code writers in the world have attempted to penetrate Bitcoin’s code to no avail. It’s seemingly fool proof in regards to security.
Bitcoin dominance is a metric used by cryptocurrency traders to see where the other cryptocurrencies overall market dominance weigh in percentage wise against BTC. This helps them make better conclusions as to where the price of BTC will go in the short term.
Topics not covered that should be researched include :
Satoshi Nakamoto & The White Paper
the lightning network
Bitcoin transaction fees
Bitcoin miners fees
Segregated Witness (SegWit) transactions
blockchain reward halving
Mount Gox hack 2014
Xapo vaults for Bitcoin billionaires
I’ll leave you with a quote from a recent article exploring the activity of a wallet address belonging to a “Bitcoin whale.”
“Take for instance the owner of the most substantial amount of bitcoins located in one address which currently holds 167,000 BTC at the time of writing. The wallet started collecting BTC approximately two years ago when the address recorded its first deposit of roughly $840 dollars worth of BTC. Now there is $1.4 billion USD worth of BTC held in the wallet as thousands of coins have been collected since its inception. Coincidentally this bitcoin whale has been able to acquire a lot more BTC during each meteoric rise in value, and the typical dumps that follow soon after. In 2017 there have been six ‘major’ corrections that have seen BTC lose over 30 percent or more of its value, and this particular whale has gained more funds every single time.”
Source : https://news.bitcoin...a-lot-more-btc/
Bitcoin 8 year price chart - last column represents yearly percentage gains / losses :
Dec 31 2010 - $0.29 - 9,567%
Dec 31 2011 - $4.38 - 1,410%
Dec 31 2012 - $13.41 - 206%
Dec 31 2013 - $817.12 - 5,993%
Dec 31 2014 - $302.00 - -63%
Dec 31 2015 - $429.78 - 42%
Dec 31 2016 - $958.24 - 123-%
Dec 31 2017 - $16,699.68 - 1,643%
Biggest Crashes in Bitcoin history :
94% June - November 2011 from $32 to $2
Mt. Gox hack
36% June 2012 from $7 to $4
79% April 2013 from $266 to $54
Mt. Gox stopped trading
49% February 2014
Mt. Gox is gone
40% Sept. 2017 from $5,000 to $2,972
48% January 2018 from $19,700 to $9,500