[quote name='donssword']Remember that Nintendo has stated that the next gen will not actually replace the GameCube, but exist alongside of it, and that they have patented their version of an eye toy as well.
Based on what they have said, we should see something that "they" think does not look like a console as we traditionally know them, but will be specifically designed for a broader audience, with a larger range of features (think the success of the drumming games in Japan). Let's not even talk about Nintendo's Japan sales. I think the big N is overstating things as far as how revolutionary their next console is, but I also think that they recognize the power of the cell phone, and it feature laden components, and that they may go that route as well... but opinions are like noses...
re: the Gamecube -- I think everyone learned a big lesson with the PS1's lifespan, esp. the parent of the abandoned N64. Last I read, close to half of all PS1 sales happened after its price drop when it became Sony's budget console... that is a huge amount of $$ for such an ancient system (2x CD reader) -- imagine the profit they pulled in on all the old, cheap parts. Remember too that the Cube, when it debuted, was made from off-the-shelf parts, so all money made since launch has been gravy. That is why the big N ain't worried about Mr. Gates -- they can sell half as many Cubes and still make more money on their system than Mr. Gates.
And lets not forget the largest selling gamer device ever, the GameBoy. With the PSP looking to fetch a high price, if Nintendo continues to hang onto the low end market and diversify their offerings to appeal to older age demographics (like what they did with the GBASP), they should easily be able to hold onto their lead.[/quote]
Several things wrong here. The PS1 was hugely successful and dominated all three major markets at its height of popularity. The same cannot be said for the GameCube and thus it is highly unlikely it will continue to be supported a minute longer than necessary, just as the N64 was dropped with little ceremony compared to the effort to sustain the SNES.
The GameCube can hardly be described as made of off the shelf parts. In fact there is hardly a standard item among its primary components. The sound and graphics functionality were produced from scratch by Artx prior to their acquisition by ATI, the CPU was significantly customized by IBM to optimize it for 32-bit gaming demands (64-bit registers altered to hold dual 32-bit values for SIMD operations), the drive is a custom design including proprietary DRM firmware from Matsushita, and the main RAM is a very uncommon specialized product. The product was designed with a low cost in mind but not off the shelf.
What the GC has failed in worst of all is third party publishing revenue. This has been the #1 sourcce of profits in Nintendo's entire video game career. Without those revenues Nintendo has no reason to keep the platform going. The handful of big hits tied to it can very easily be ported to their newer machine or that of another company, just as the N64 Zelda has now transcended its birthplace.
The Xbox comes much closer to meeting this description. A NVIDIA motherboard chipset coupled with a GeForce 4 would provide a very close basis for making an Xbox compatible system and would in fact have much silicon in common with the Xbox. The remaining component can be had at any Fry's: DDR RAM, IDE hard drive, IDE DVD drive, etc.
I would be willing to bet that any patents Nintendo has for an EyeToy sort of accessory are very specific to their implementation just as those for the EyeToy are themselves. Intel was bundling similar software with their webcams seven years ago and several companies had similar products for use with the Amiga computers in the 80's. Once you have a cheap gen-lock system everything else is fairly easy.
As for Ps1 sales, which price drop do you mean? $299? $249? $199? Or dou you mean the introduction of the PSone model? While this unit is profitable at $50 retail don't assume it is a cash cow in of itself. If it were viable to sell it for $30 Sony would. The big money is always in the software. Coming as close as possible to giving away the hardware serves to make the software continue to have a market. As mentioned above, without those third party software revenues it doesn't matter how cheap the hardware can be offered.