You're right, this deal doesn't work for me.
As I said before, I don't subscribe to either PS+ or XBox Live Gold. I used to be subscribed to PS+, but as someone said on another forum, they didn't even bother to play most of the free monthly games. And I realized I didn't either. More savings for me. (And after looking at the newly released PS+ games for July, I made a good decision.)
The bulk of the games on Game Pass are mostly indie titles, smaller titles, with a few bigger ones that are past their prime, and the 1st party. The ones like Shadow of the Tomb Raider, Wolfenstein II, and etc are all games that I played during release window. And if I really wanted to, I could buy them now for much cheaper since they've been out for months already; all without having to hurry and rush through them in the event the game is taken off Game Pass. Then I could trade it in, and it'd basically be a few dollars out-of-pocket, with peace of mind.
I'll pass on Game Pass Ultimate -- also I don't believe for a second this "deal" won't ever come again for new Ultimate subscribers. I'll commit to it if Microsoft ever has a grand line-up of 1st-party titles in a row.
Like I said before, I only care about Gears 5 and Ori 2. And so it looks like a 6 months Game Pass would be perfect for me. I can activate it in September for Gears 5, and it would last me all the way to Ori 2 in February.
I would only end up paying $20, instead of the $150 others are paying for the 3-year commitment. This is the smart play.
Although I enjoy Gears multiplayer as well, Borderlands 3 is coming out the week after, and so I don't have any time for it. I'll just use the Game Pass to play the Gears 5 campaign and then toss it aside. September is stacked.
The savings I get will go towards the cost of either of the new consoles in 2020. Smart plan by Microsoft to tempt people into this deal; since they would likely consider the Scarlett as their platform since they've invested so many years into Game Pass and Xbox Live Gold...
There's also "Outer Worlds" (multi-plat game) launching on Game Pass on release date and "Blair Witch" also (though it's not multi-plat).