Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD Analyst Report

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Updated 8/23/07 -

Here is another Home Media Article about the Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD war. This includes opinons on the Paramount move. But most interestingly to me was that 90% of Japan is Blu-Ray.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/index.cfm?sec_id=2&newsid=11080


Previously:
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/index.cfm?sec_id=2&newsid=10208

Interesting read. I don't know how much is true, but interesting none the less.

Update 2/5/07
Ok, there is a new article out. It is in the Home Retailing Magazine, so I can not copy and paste the text. Basically, it says HD-DVD has out sold Blu-Ray overall, according to Neilsen data from Jan 21st. But, year to date HD-DVD is only selling 50.51 DVD's for every 100 that Blu-Ray sells. They make a couple of comments about how HD-DVD released first, but the release of the PS3 has helped Blu-Ray sales. A couple of other notes:
- HD has only released 11 new titles for Jan
- Blu-Ray released 20 new titles in Jan.
- Mike Dunn -20th Century Fox Home Entertainment Pres "noted the surge in Blu-Ray sales following the release of the PS3. 'I really believe the format war is in its final phase.' "

Here is the url to see the article... It is a hefty download though. http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hmr012807/

Update 2/7
Here is another article. Apparently Sony has still not sold a million units in the US. On the other hand, blu-ray outsold HD-DVD 3-1 the 2nd week of january.
Here is the article: http://www.homemediamagazine.com/index.cfm?sec_id=2&newsid=10250

Update 2/23
Here is another article. Apparently Blu-Ray has finally sold more units than HD-DVD. But, HD-DVD has a unique advantage going forward....

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/index.cfm?sec_id=2&newsid=10323

Matthew
 
Thanks for posting that. I ultimately think DVD will hang around a lot longer than anticipated, since the only reasonably-priced BR/HD players are attached to consoles. In 1.5-2 years time, perhaps we'll see $250-$350 players. In the meantime, they're too much for most people. Nevertheless, thanks to the PS3, I will hold out for a BR version of a movie over buying the DVD.

I can't wait to get my goddamn HDTV back from the shop so I can watch Goodfellas in BR glory.
 
From a distance, they booth look fairly similar on my 21" 720p monitor. My computer's hardware scaling looks really good and the difference is hardly noticeable when comparing against HD-DVDs/BDs.

So I'm stocking up on DVDs now... when many people are thinking about the new and undecided format.:p
 
I said once i get my PS3,im gonna say bye bye to dvd and i will buy all my latest flicks on Hd Blu-ray , and thats whats been hapening so far i already got 15 Blu-ray Hd flicks which i play on my PS3 and they look gorgeous on my Bravia i am not going back to dvd.
 
[quote name='"analyst"']Each group has got its advantages, but what really changes the picture is PS3. It is poised to be in virtually 25 million to 35 million homes in the next two to three years. [/quote]

You have got to be kidding me...

[quote name='interviewer']The higher price of the PS3 compared to those previous players doesn’t seem to be a stumbling block. Is that because it seems like a value to get the Blu-ray capability as well as the gaming system? [/quote]

The price isn't a stumbling block? What country is this guy living in?
 
That's just plain idiotic, if anything this article demonstrates why neither company is actually winning shit. When 80% of the blu-ray players sold in 2006 are PS3s people are probably buying them for something other than watching HD DVDs, otherwise due to a very small PS3 supply in 2006 someone would have actually bought a player just for the movies.
 
[quote name='MrMaddness']This is a terrible, terrible article.

How much did Sony pay for it?[/QUOTE]
Yeah after reading it again (I was pretty tired the first time) it does seem pretty biased.
 
[quote name='RedvsBlue']You have got to be kidding me...



The price isn't a stumbling block? What country is this guy living in?[/QUOTE]

Not country, what planet is he living on?
 
25 MILLION PS3s in homes n the next 2 years? Not unless they drop to $100 and FLY off the shelves. Sony just now sold 1 million of them and thats AFTER the Christmas season where PS3 was not difficult to find. By the end of the year I predict we will see BR players in the sub $500 range and HD players around $200. This will deter people from buying PS3s as BR players.

I'm sure the next article will state Blu-Ray will win simply because the cases are blue.
 
Although the article seems a bit biased, I must agree that Blu Ray may end up winning oer HD DVD simply because of stronger studio support, and the fact the PS3 is a BD player doesn't eally hurt BD as a whole in any way. I own a PS3 and HDTV and already own a few BD movies, and I'm also holding off on DVD purchases now, waiting to get the BD versions.
 
You might say people didn't buy a PS3 to play Blu-ray movies, but the sales say different. Since the PS3 came out Blu-ray is outselling HD-Dvd 2 to 1. I think alot of people figure if your going to spend 600 bucks on a system your going to use it for everything it has. I personally was waiting for the PS3 not just for gaming but for a Blu-ray player. I just feel with the support of most major electronics manufacturers and most major studios Blu-ray is going to win the format war. And as far as 25 million PS3s in the next 2 years, I don't think that is to far fetched. Think about it, there is going to be a price reduction within that time and how many people all over the net are saying they'll get it as soon as they drop the price. I think personally that 15 to 20 million is probably closer, but who the hell am I.
 
[quote name='millrat1030']You might say people didn't buy a PS3 to play Blu-ray movies, but the sales say different. Since the PS3 came out Blu-ray is outselling HD-Dvd 2 to 1. I think alot of people figure if your going to spend 600 bucks on a system your going to use it for everything it has. I personally was waiting for the PS3 not just for gaming but for a Blu-ray player. I just feel with the support of most major electronics manufacturers and most major studios Blu-ray is going to win the format war. And as far as 25 million PS3s in the next 2 years, I don't think that is to far fetched. Think about it, there is going to be a price reduction within that time and how many people all over the net are saying they'll get it as soon as they drop the price. I think personally that 15 to 20 million is probably closer, but who the hell am I.[/QUOTE]

We're rapidly approaching the 2 year anniversary of the PSP and, despite not selling anything compared to the DS's numbers and the fact that they weren't taking nearly as much of an initial loss per unit (compared to PS3), we're yet to see a price drop on the PSP. Sure they mess with the bundles to alter the price or the percieved value but they're yet to actually drop the price of the PSP itself. Given the high loss per unit on the PS3, their PSP track record, and Sony repeatedly saying they will not be cutting the price anytime soon, I'm not entirely sure they will drop the price of the PS3. They need to, but they can't and won't.
 
[quote name='CounterSeal']Although the article seems a bit biased, I must agree that Blu Ray may end up winning oer HD DVD simply because of stronger studio support, and the fact the PS3 is a BD player doesn't eally hurt BD as a whole in any way. I own a PS3 and HDTV and already own a few BD movies, and I'm also holding off on DVD purchases now, waiting to get the BD versions.[/QUOTE]

You're an idiot if you're buying any of the new releases or old BR exclusives. They're overpriced for almost everything. The ONLY price I'm willing to pay is around $20 or a little more if it's a combo and it has to include extras.
 
I can still see the PS3 winning this generation. Had my doubts for awhile, I still rarely turn on my PS3. However, one of my co-workers would occasionaly ask about it. Despite my telling him that there are VERY few good games for it, the controller does random disconnects, online is less than stellar, and numerous other things, he showed up at my house last Saturday night telling me he got one but couldn't get it to work with the HDMI cable. People like that will make the PS3 a big seller.
 
Sarang01, what are you 12? Calling someone an idiot because they choose to make a purchase you can't afford. Look just because you don't think the Blu-ray titles are worth what someone else pays for them doesn't make them an idiot. I have bought several new releases on Blu-ray, and yes I have paid as much as 30 bucks, what is the big deal? When I first got my DVD player several years ago, I paid 25 to 30 dollars for those. It's a new format and your going to pay the price for being an early adapter. Eventually the price will go down to what you pay for a regular DVD, but until then look at paying about 10 bucks more for better quality.
 
I bought a PS3 and actually i have not bought any games for it because I don't have the time to put to fully play anything right now. On the other hand I already have about 15 Blue Ray movies for it and I can't see going back to DVD's.
 
[quote name='millrat1030']Sarang01, what are you 12? Calling someone an idiot because they choose to make a purchase you can't afford. Look just because you don't think the Blu-ray titles are worth what someone else pays for them doesn't make them an idiot. I have bought several new releases on Blu-ray, and yes I have paid as much as 30 bucks, what is the big deal? When I first got my DVD player several years ago, I paid 25 to 30 dollars for those. It's a new format and your going to pay the price for being an early adapter. Eventually the price will go down to what you pay for a regular DVD, but until then look at paying about 10 bucks more for better quality.[/QUOTE]

Firstly funny you assume I can't afford them. I just won't suffer their price gouging for over 4 year old movies that should be $20 or less and I think I'm being more than fair on the $20 price point. I accept new releases as $30 and just won't buy them on either side.
Why should I expect this? Remind me again based on what I pointed to above. Oh and guess what?! "Clerks 2" is a new release and is $20 on Amazon and almost equal in price, non zShop, to the regular version. Oh and as I read in a review the features are in 1080i. Granted this is one of the more rare occurances but it still makes one ask themselves hopefully "Why am I paying for a new barebones BR disc for $10 more?".
The only time I'll give a pass in price is importing where I'll be doing so for "Harry Potter and the Goblet Of Fire" UK or French edition, "The Matrix" UK or some other version and "My Sassy Girl" Japanese version.
 
Ok I'm not really getting your point. Your ranting makes no sense. Are you comparing HD-Dvd priceing to Blu-ray pricing? If so, yes some HD releases are cheaper than Blu-ray and vise versa. I've bought several new releases on Blu-ray for 25 bucks, and that's at Be$t Buy. The fact is it does cost more to stamp a Blu-ray compared to HD. As we see the sale of Blu-ray start to shadow HD, more stamping facilities will start popping up and the price will gone down. I would like to point out I do think HD will hang around for a while even after it is clear that Blu-ray has won the war. Toshiba will not go down easy because they don't want to have to eat crow from the BD group. It is sad though that no one seems to want to stand truly behind HD, except for Toshiba and Universal. M$ say they are, but one ask about putting HD in 360s, they say they don't want people to have to buy a format that might be dead in a few years. That doesn't sound like backing to me.
 
Well let's consider adding it on would've cost more and do you think gamers could've easily stomached a $400/$500 tiered price point. Look how hard it is for gamers to stomach the pricing of the PS3.
 
[quote name='MrMaddness']This is a terrible, terrible article.

How much did Sony pay for it?[/quote]

x2

the PS3 only matters this year. next year HD players will be about 1/2 the price they are now. in 2 years theyll be what an average DVD player is.

fact of the matter is, if you want to be able to watch all movies that come out you need both formats. otherwise youre going to be limited to certain studios.

sony also needs to get its act together and quit being a little whiny bitch about VC-1. it's the best codec and they should licence it MS or not. the fact that they stuck to MPEG-2 for so long is MIND BOGGLING.

im all for the format war though, let them duke it out as long as they can. hopefully theyll keep one upping capacity and increasing drive speed in the processes.
 
These analysts are missing the big picture. Who cares if BluRay outsells HD-DVD 3 to 1 if DVD is outselling both 1000 to 1? The leap from DVD to either of the new HiDef formats isn't nearly as great as it was from VHS to DVD. Most people are content with the PQ of the current DVD format. Combine that with a decent upconverting DVD player and you can't really justify the price of a $500+ BluRay or HD-DVD player.
 
blewelt - that is neat. Thanks. :)

gofishin - I would argue pretty strongly against "no difference." I think there is a major difference between DVD and HD-DVD or Blu-Ray.

Now on the other hand, HD TV is very similar to Blu-Ray. So if you get an HD signal, why are you getting so excited about Blu-Ray or HD-DVD?

My opinion - HD material is awsome - but I don't care what format it is in. I actually think a "war" is a great thing. It forces better product onto the market place, and it drives prices down.

Matthew
 
[quote name='gofishn']These analysts are missing the big picture. Who cares if BluRay outsells HD-DVD 3 to 1 if DVD is outselling both 1000 to 1? The leap from DVD to either of the new HiDef formats isn't nearly as great as it was from VHS to DVD. Most people are content with the PQ of the current DVD format. Combine that with a decent upconverting DVD player and you can't really justify the price of a $500+ BluRay or HD-DVD player.[/quote]

that's because VHS and DVD were virtually the same resolution. so TVs didnt need to be changed just the format. and DVDs appeared much clearer/filmlike because there was no magnetic distortions like VHS.

this time the factor that will slow it and the most expensive entry point is the HDTVs. anything over 32" that's 1/2 way decent is going to run at least $800+
 
[quote name='simpsonps121']blewelt - that is neat. Thanks. :)

gofishin - I would argue pretty strongly against "no difference." I think there is a major difference between DVD and HD-DVD or Blu-Ray.

Now on the other hand, HD TV is very similar to Blu-Ray. So if you get an HD signal, why are you getting so excited about Blu-Ray or HD-DVD?

My opinion - HD material is awsome - but I don't care what format it is in. I actually think a "war" is a great thing. It forces better product onto the market place, and it drives prices down.

Matthew[/QUOTE]

I never said there was no difference, I'm just saying the difference between upconverted DVD and HD-DVD/BluRay isn't as great as the difference between VHS and DVD. The main problem with VHS was the grainy picture, muffled sound, they wore out, rewinding, etc. All those problems were solved with the introduction of DVD. HD-DVD/BluRay is obviously a serious improvement in PQ, but the main peeves people had with VHS have all been eliminated by DVD.
 
These "analysts" are retarded.

Before PS3 launched it was "BLUERAY IS GOING TO SMASH HDDVD PS3!!!", then in December they switched to "HDDVD HAS THIS SHIT WON" and now it's "LOOKS LIKE WE WERE RIGHT THE FIRST TIME PS3 IS A HIT GAME OVER MAN GAME OVEr"
 
I work with Analysts. Some of them are even tech sector analysts.

The fundamental problem with them is they are allowed to 'revise' their predictions until the day before the actual facts are reported/announced by the companies. And they are only held accountable for their latest prediction.

So they can say whatever they want, its really only the latest thing they say that matters. Which of course imo, negates them as being useful for predicting anything.
 
[quote name='eaglebeak']Put this in the "sad but true" file. The winner of the HD-DVD and Blu-Ray format war will be determined by the Porn industry, just as they decided the winner or the VHS vs. Betamax war years ago. Read this:

http://www.gamerevolution.com/news/view.php?id=2155 :shame:[/quote]

I disagree, simply because the Porno industry chose broadband internet over any form of disc based media years ago. They wont be the deciding factor that they were in the VHS v Betamax war.
 
I would also disagree with the porn statement.

While I am speaking from ignorance - what % of the population own 1 porn DVD? I would guess that it is less than 5%. That will not swing a war.

Ok, what about potential adaptars for the High-Def content. Are they typically going to be ones that buy porn? Once again, I doubt it.

My "guess" - totally uneducated. The people that have the couple of grand needed for a high -def set up are typically in their 30-50's. Of that group, the majority of them (let's say 75%) have a family (however defined). Of that group, the majority of them would not be comfortable about bringing porn into their home.

So once again, we are talking a niche market. Is a niche market going to drive an industry under?

Another side comment - I would assume - the porn sells alot to repeat customers. They do not "add" to their consumers.

Let's take this another way.

Disney Vs Porn. Disney is Blu-Ray. Porn is HD-DVD. Who wins?

That one is easy.


But, what do I know.
Matthew
 
It's way too early for them to be celebrating, but I'm happy that Blu-Ray is ahead, being a PS3 owner. Not that I'll buy a single Blu-ray disc for a year or two (these things are a rip right now.)

The two are basically neck and neck. The analysis in that article is totally empty---

“Given that the life-to-date title sales ratios are close to 1:1, and given that Blu-ray has a 5:1 ratio right now on the hardware side due to the PS3, why aren’t Blu-ray software sales outpacing HD DVD by a similar ratio?

“In fact, HD DVD players continue to have an attach rate (life to date) that is more than five times that of Blu-ray players.”
Click to expand...


These brilliant analysts couldn't deduce that a lot of PS3 owners bought it for games and aren't sold on Blu-ray yet and that people who bought HD-DVD players bought them specifically to watch movies on?
 
To be fair, Blu-Ray has "Disney," but I only see Buena Vista pictures on the horizon. I don't see any of the Pixar movies or their classic 2D animated features that they're known for. Now, I'm not slighting the popularity of "Pirates of the Caribbean" and the like, but the collectibility of Disney animated films is off the charts fuckin' crazy, and would spurn a lot more in sales than "Air Bud."

That said, there's no way the VHS/Beta comparison can hold today:
1) As Puffa points out, porn has chosen the internet. It still sells billions in video, I'm sure, but video was the only way to watch them at home a quarter century ago. Today there are a multitude of choices, including the internet.
2) As simpsons points out, these days, many people own a video player (cassette or DVD), yet not everyone owns porn. It's a huge, and very profitable industry, but it's also not the beginning and end of the format wars anymore.
3) During the VHS/Beta wars, there were no "Best Buy" like stores - home releases of movies weren't readily available en masse, and the selection and release schedule varied wildly. It really wasn't until the late 1980's that buying VHS movies in stores (compared with blank tapes) became a common occurrance - that was years after the format war was over. What this does is mean porn had a great deal of importance in determining VHS/Beta, but overstates their impact because the home video market is *completely* different now (where an as-good-as-film quality release is available within two months of a film's theatrical run).

There's nothing that will ever compare to VHS/Beta again, and that's fine.
 
I'm not surprised Blu-Ray is ahead of HD-DVD sales right now. There are more PS3s out in the market now than there were the end of last year. Also, there just aren't a lot of HD-DVD titles being announced, thanks to most of the studios siding with Blu-Ray. And finally, with so few games out at the moment, what else are PS3 owners buying to help justify the cost of their systems?
 
[quote name='gunm']I'm not surprised Blu-Ray is ahead of HD-DVD sales right now. There are more PS3s out in the market now than there were the end of last year. Also, there just aren't a lot of HD-DVD titles being announced, thanks to most of the studios siding with Blu-Ray. And finally, with so few games out at the moment, what else are PS3 owners buying to help justify the cost of their systems?[/QUOTE]

Universal just went through some pretty big changes and January/February is normally the slow months. Universal will be announcing ALOT of things in the next week according the a few insiders.
 
[quote name='gunm']I'm not surprised Blu-Ray is ahead of HD-DVD sales right now. There are more PS3s out in the market now than there were the end of last year. Also, there just aren't a lot of HD-DVD titles being announced, thanks to most of the studios siding with Blu-Ray. And finally, with so few games out at the moment, what else are PS3 owners buying to help justify the cost of their systems?[/quote]
universal is releaseing 110+ movies this year on HD-DVD. there are also lots of other studois, and you can get BR "exclusives" through importing on HD-DVD since HD-DVD doesnt have region coding. HD-DVDs are cheaper to begin w/ so its not much more, especially if you order a few at once.
 
[quote name='CounterSeal']I'd be surprised if HD DVD is still in healthy shape by this holiday season.[/quote]
nothing's going to happen this year. it took 2 full years for anything to even happen w/ VHS & BM. the adaption rate wont even reach 30% until players are $250.
 
[quote name='CounterSeal']I'd be surprised if HD DVD is still in healthy shape by this holiday season.[/QUOTE]

BR and HD make us less then 1% combined of all sales compared to DVD. Nothing will happen.
 
[quote name='mykevermin']Nevertheless, thanks to the PS3, I will hold out for a BR version of a movie over buying the DVD.

I can't wait to get my goddamn HDTV back from the shop so I can watch Goodfellas in BR glory.[/QUOTE]Same here. I'm fine with paying $10 more, as long as the reviews of the quality are good, and it's got s much content as the DVD.
 
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