Could GTA IV truely be the greatest selling game in history?

L

lordxixor101

CAGiversary!
Just thinking about this with EA's takeover bid.

EA is trying to force the takeover before GTA IV comes out. Take Two is fighting for this to happen after it comes out (this is via an article at Money.com). So, both companies are under the impression that Take Two is worth more after this game is released. Yet, stock prices are determined on future earnings, so a pretty strong earnings have already been estimated for Take Two.

But, if both companies (assuming with intellegent business people running them) are gambling this, how great must this game be that these companies both think will beat the projected sales estimates?
 
SMB isn't really a fair inclusion. You weren't buying the NES for specifically for Mario Bros in most cases, so I wouldn't consider it a "sale" of the game. The best-selling game that was never bundled with a system is SMB3, which hit 18 million, according to Wikipedia. If we're looking for how well a game sold, that should be the target.
 
I don't know about total units, but I definitely think it has the cajones to make the largest amount of $$ during its launch window (say 1 week or 1 month, however they want to calculate it).

I think this is for 3 main reasons:

1. There has been alot of hype and pre-order campaigns and there should be no supply issues on this, I bet every store everywhere is going to have this (don't be surprised if you see it at 7-11s or other convenience stores I think).

2. One of the versions costs $89.99, so this will raise the dollar value per game sold

3. This game is releasing in North America, Europe, Japan, and Australia on the same day on two consoles. This will help move alot more units in the initial period and also games in these areas often cost alot more $$ than they cost in North America, yet again raising the per dollar value of game sold.

These are just my opinions of course, and I cannot comment on the 40 million units, we will have to wait and see on that one.
 
Considering the average gamer is now 30+ and has the income necessary, I'd say it might have a shot. If it does, MGS4 will be interesting as well (being the first next-gen title in the series)...THAT will be a title that moves systems.
 
Hardware is too expensive for most to buy.

Most people are too worried about the economy at the moment.
 
[quote name='Kyz']Why not?

Per Rockstar's Board of Directors Recommendation to reject EA's offer, Vice City has sold 17.5 million and San Andreas has sold 21.5 million. The series as a whole across all platforms has sold 70 million.

Seems possible to me.[/quote]

Those software sales are on the PS2 juggernaut of 120 million+ install base, + 20m+ if your'e counting the xbox versions.

The worldwide HD console install base is barely 30 million. That pretty much makes it impossible.
 
I'd only say it's possible if they bring the GTA IV 40 gig PS3 to the states (I think I saw somewhere that they're doing that for Europe). At $100 less than the MGS bundle, not limited (I assume the MGS one is), and coming out over a month earlier I suspect it would move a lot of consoles. I'm not a GTA fan, but I plan on getting a PS3 this summer and would probably pick up the 40 gig bundle if it comes out (I'd get just about any bundle, but would prefer mid May to mid June for MGS (I still haven't played MGS 2 or 3 yet either)
 
dr mario kart got it right. The user base is no where close to PS2. Even if you count new system purchase just for the game it still wont be enough.
 
Look for GTA IV Sacramento (coming out in 12 months) or GTA IV Boise (coming out in 24 months) to be the greatest selling game in history due to the expanding PS3 and 360 user base. GTA IV won't quite get there.
 
No but I expect it to be the best selling Next-Gen title (Ps3/X360), surpassing whatever holds that now. Cod4 or Halo 3 w/e
 
It will end up selling around 10 - 12 Million this year and will top out around 12 - 14 million. Mark my word on this one. It would be the best selling if Japan had more of an interest in the GTA games.
 
[quote name='quicksilv3r']When i heard GTA4 has Offical Multiplayer, shit i pre-ordered it, And i dont even have PS3 yet lulz.[/quote]Why preorder when you don't have a console to play it on? Isn't the whole point of a preorder that you get it right when it comes out so you can play it, not stare at it and wish you had a PS3?
 
Seeing as how it's coming out for two consoles with a combined install base of around 20 million, I suspect they'd like to see sales of 8-10 million in a very short order, along with a correlating enormous spike in PS3/360 console sales during the week or two leading up to 4/29, as well as for a week or two following.

As far as how well it will sell, I couldn't give a shit. I just want to play it.
 
[quote name='spoo']It will end up selling around 10 - 12 Million this year and will top out around 12 - 14 million. Mark my word on this one. It would be the best selling if Japan had more of an interest in the GTA games.[/QUOTE]

or if they got it to japan faster. GTA SA just came out over there last year, and it hit #1 it's first two weeks there.
 
[quote name='InuFaye']OK.

It wont sell 18 million copies.[/quote]


If Call of Duty 4 could sell 10 million copies in less than a year, GTA 4 has a chance of selling 18 million in 6 years.
 
It's one of those situations where I know it'll sell more than I think, but less than what most would expect. Yeah, I know, it's a BS answer.
 
[quote name='quicksilv3r']When i heard GTA4 has Offical Multiplayer, shit i pre-ordered it, And i dont even have PS3 yet lulz.[/quote]

That's retarded, by the time you get a PS3 I'm gonna laugh if the game is going for $30 because of oversaturation. Go look at the current price of all the other GTA's.
 
[quote name='Strife025']That's retarded, by the time you get a PS3 I'm gonna laugh if the game is going for $30 because of oversaturation. Go look at the current price of all the other GTA's.[/quote]


That is one of the dumbest things I have read in a long time. You really want to compare a game that has yet to come out with some shit that came out three years ago?
 
GTA whatever so far is not going to be a big anything. It is more about the story since San Andreas allowed a whole bunch of customizations and network play with Patches and hacks.

Personally I more intrested in Vice City Stories then any other one at the moment which I have yet to touch. I also intrested in the unaltered Vice City game since I know my copy of the PC game is missing a bunch of graphics.

Then there is also A Liberty City Stories on the PS2 and PSP. I dislike the advertisment since the backgrounds while being NYC is somewhat one sided
( European based/Whitie based/Cuacasian based/The West Side ).

Also I have thought up a even better game then this GTA:NYC nonsense with a girl character also staring myself. The character looks like a dork or some bum you would see outside like the Guy in Spider-Man who was the Scropian also. He looks so shrimpish and to be honest while these small guys are like small dogs that can bite down I dislike Sunny Side up being the senario feels tooooo Russo-Italian. NYC is not just Poor Blondes, Itlain Jews, and Irish parents who take the turn pipe from NJ. It is the true Black America ( In the city/ Negro have the street/ In the city ) , Coperate ( Paradime/ Cinaplex/ Industiral/ Commercial)
and most importantly mixed City ( where you cna find everything when you have everything ).

RockStar is also based in NYC in Silicon Alley and to be honest if there studios is not in this game it is going to bomb.

Honestly this game would have to outdo any other Liberty City game even the original games which took place in such atmospheres.

I don't have a 360 or PS3 so what is going to make me run naked outside and pick up this waste of time. In NYC you can run around naked even in broad day light and there is no this Scorpian loser outside only teens/ Young adults who think they are big man.

Matel Gear must be stopped. You Cuntry Folks is going to Enjoy this I hear:booty:HAR HAR HAR now let me shine my nails.

jhjhjhp5.jpg
 
[quote name='Mahoney07']If Call of Duty 4 could sell 10 million copies in less than a year, GTA 4 has a chance of selling 18 million in 6 years.[/quote]If GTA IV is the only GTA to come out this generation, then that would make sense. But future GTAs will curtail sales of this one significantly.

Considering it will be working on two consoles, it is conceivable that the follow-up to a game that sold 17 million (San Andreas) could eventually break 18 million if given the time, but it will have one of those asterisks due to being on two systems. The 360 GTA IV will not sell 18 million+, nor will the PS3 version.
 
I don't know about that....

Isn't Guitar Hero unstoppable now? All my friggin teachers play that game.

I wonder if Wii-Fit will beat it out, or if it's doomed to be another game wii owners won't buy.
 
The install base just isn't high enough for this game to become the best selling game ever. I think 8-12 million would be pretty good considering everything.
 
[quote name='leveskikesko']I don't know about that....

Isn't Guitar Hero unstoppable now? All my friggin teachers play that game.

I wonder if Wii-Fit will beat it out, or if it's doomed to be another game wii owners won't buy.[/quote]

Wii-Fit will be the game that'll sell well just because NPR runs a news report on it on how old people are using it in their therapy and some public interest story about 250 pound guy lost 25 pounds.


Oh, and people like me, that are just peripheral whores. Why do I have a Gamecube Dance Dance Revolution mat? I don't know, but god damnit I have one.
 
[quote name='botticus']If GTA IV is the only GTA to come out this generation, then that would make sense. But future GTAs will curtail sales of this one significantly.

Considering it will be working on two consoles, it is conceivable that the follow-up to a game that sold 17 million (San Andreas) could eventually break 18 million if given the time, but it will have one of those asterisks due to being on two systems. The 360 GTA IV will not sell 18 million+, nor will the PS3 version.[/quote]



Being on the same system shouldn't mean asterisk if it's the exact same game.
 
Exclusive DLC would give you that argument that its not the exact same game.

Thats irrelevant however. Whether there is an actual asterisk or not, people are going to make the comparison of multiplatform and single platform, so its a legitimate distinction.
 
[quote name='Mahoney07']Being on the same system shouldn't mean asterisk if it's the exact same game.[/quote]The asterisk is there because the question would be: would Super Mario Bros. 3 have sold more than 18 million if it had been on Genesis too?
 
this game will be one of the biggest selling games of all time. This is the first "next gen" version of the game. The most significant change that the series has seen. So it will definitely do extremely well. Even if its bad.
 
[quote name='porieux']I won't be buying it....not that anyone cares.[/quote]

I'm not buying it either. The GTA games just don't appeal to me.

Most "sandbox" games in general aren't my thing.
 
I just have a feeling that this game is going to sell alot less then what most analysts are predicting.

I mean I haven't seen that many ads. (Although I don't go looking for them)

We shall see how well this game actually sells, but due to the fact that the install base is so damn tiny, I dont think that this will get close to San Andreas numbers, probably closer to GTAIII numbers.
 
[quote name='Redie']GTA whatever so far is not going to be a big anything. It is more about the story since San Andreas allowed a whole bunch of customizations and network play with Patches and hacks.

Personally I more intrested in Vice City Stories then any other one at the moment which I have yet to touch. I also intrested in the unaltered Vice City game since I know my copy of the PC game is missing a bunch of graphics.

Then there is also A Liberty City Stories on the PS2 and PSP. I dislike the advertisment since the backgrounds while being NYC is somewhat one sided
( European based/Whitie based/Cuacasian based/The West Side ).

Also I have thought up a even better game then this GTA:NYC nonsense with a girl character also staring myself. The character looks like a dork or some bum you would see outside like the Guy in Spider-Man who was the Scropian also. He looks so shrimpish and to be honest while these small guys are like small dogs that can bite down I dislike Sunny Side up being the senario feels tooooo Russo-Italian. NYC is not just Poor Blondes, Itlain Jews, and Irish parents who take the turn pipe from NJ. It is the true Black America ( In the city/ Negro have the street/ In the city ) , Coperate ( Paradime/ Cinaplex/ Industiral/ Commercial)
and most importantly mixed City ( where you cna find everything when you have everything ).

RockStar is also based in NYC in Silicon Alley and to be honest if there studios is not in this game it is going to bomb.

Honestly this game would have to outdo any other Liberty City game even the original games which took place in such atmospheres.

I don't have a 360 or PS3 so what is going to make me run naked outside and pick up this waste of time. In NYC you can run around naked even in broad day light and there is no this Scorpian loser outside only teens/ Young adults who think they are big man.

Matel Gear must be stopped. You Cuntry Folks is going to Enjoy this I hear:booty:HAR HAR HAR now let me shine my nails.

[/quote]
I don't know about you guys, but this man is quickly becoming my favorite poster on CAG.
 
[quote name='spoo']Caught up in the hype much?[/QUOTE]

I'm more out of the hype and just have done tons of research. also, I've been a huge fan of GTA humor so I was already sold a long ass time ago.

I still think those who don't believe the entire "hype" thing need to see around that. It's a milestone in gaming that is going to change alot of game development in the next few years.
 
[quote name='RelentlessRolento']It's a milestone in gaming that is going to change alot of game development in the next few years.[/QUOTE]

You post some mighty strong words for a game that isn't evenout yet. A milestone? What is you idea of a milestone, a new way to use a rocket launcher on hookers at Time Square?
 
it sets a new standard for what gameplay can be taken to and is able to do. that's what I mean by milestone. it's doing what most other games never thought they could do.


Yes, I will say and stand by my words for this yet to be released game.
 
[quote name='mykevermin']Seeing as how it's coming out for two consoles with a combined install base of around 20 million, I suspect they'd like to see sales of 8-10 million in a very short order, along with a correlating enormous spike in PS3/360 console sales during the week or two leading up to 4/29, as well as for a week or two following.

As far as how well it will sell, I couldn't give a shit. I just want to play it.[/QUOTE]

my thoughts and feelings exactly. I wouldn't be surprised that sales won't hit its peak until about a week later once the masses and press tag along on its release. from there the general public will jump in more easily.
 
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