Death of the CAG?

BingoBrown

BingoBrown

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So I was thinking today about how there are several XBLA games I would like to buy (i.e. Castle Crashers), but I just hate how you can't ever find a deal on them. Sure, there's the deal of the week, and sometimes there are multiple monthly markdowns, but there ain't any 75% off Target clearance finds in XBLA-land.

It got me wondering, is the future of gaming, digital downloads, going to kill the deals for us CAGs?

Think about it, in the future, games will no longer be printed on discs. It'll all be digitally downloaded to our hard drives. So, with no stock of physical discs, stores won't be clearancing games to get rid of overstock.

Maybe worse, digital downloads can't be sold as used games to Blockbuster or Gamespot, thus completely eliminating the used game industry that provides gamers with lower prices (but annoys publishers, because they don't see a dime of the money when a game is resold multiple times).

Anyway, maybe I'm just being pessimistic, but I'm afraid that there may be a day when deals may be few and far between for us CAGs.

Discuss amongst yourselves... ;)
 
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ive always thought about this myself and i really think that'll be the case eventually. problem is that will be a LOOOOOOOONG time before something like that is fully implemented. just like now with itunes, physical copies of CDs are not completely phased out yet. in time, who knows?

and P.S. i really wanna know where that clip is from i think its hilarious.
 
Haven't you noticed the weekly digital distribution deals every week from Steam/GOG/Impulse/GamersGate? There are lots of sales when companies have to compete strongly for your digital distribution dollar. And somebody already mentioned the iphone.

I don't think the consoles are competing enough in the digital distribution space to agrressively market and push games and DLC with price wars. Once the focus switches from boxed copies to digital copies, I think you'll see more movement in pricing. I think downloadable games are still an afterthough for the consoles this gen.

I think it's also affected by the consoles being closed platforms. Once you buy a console, the manufacturer controls your entry into digital distribution. I think the iphone is a closed plaform exception, because the mobile phone market is much more competitive and the app store is a bigger focus.
 
Until the US has universal broadband and the US broadband providers don't have caps on bandwidth, digital distribution of "full retail games" will be only a secondary revenue stream. While monthly caps by Charter/Comcast are 250GB, companies like Time Warner and ATT are looking at 30GB or smaller caps. Many places don't even have broadband access or can't afford it. Remember about 1/2 of consoles sold never go online. While PS3 has swappable hard drives, how many people will want to spend the $150 the 360's 120GB HD costs to have the room to download games? 75% of the retail crowd that buys videogames don't know anything about Live/PSN or how to download/buy stuff from it.

It takes 1M copies sold for a retail game to be a big hit, 500K for a decent hit. Most digital distribution games on the 360/PS3/WiiWare don't even hit 100K, only the biggest hits do. Steam is competing with retail so that's why there are sales on it, plus you don't own the game and can't resell it if you get it on there.

IPhone is a different animal because of the nature of the platform but when you want something besides a racing, puzzle, game show, or quiz game the results aren't that great (see Mass Effect Galaxy.) A lot of games don't sell on there until they go on sale for anywhere from $1-$3. It would take a LOT of copies sold to make a profit, unless the development costs were nil.
 
iphone games that do well are always in for prophit even at .99 since it's always a small team that decides to do it. sometimes it's one person and a 1.99 game might sell decent but that's great when it's just you who makes the game.
 
Just popped in here to say if you want a good deal on Castle Crashers, check this thread out.

And I don't like digital distribution because there would be a lack of deals (like most of the others have said), I just don't like it because I want physical copies of my stuff.
 
once you get over the hump of ot like owning physical copies, it's not a problem to be honest. I was always against it, but after realizing how friendly DD is compared to having a box I started to not mind at all.
 
What about the deals on Microsoft points to go along with these sales. I've never had a problem not paying full price for digital downloads and I don't see that changing.

I just bought 2 of the 4000 point cards for $29 each. That's already 40% off anything on xbla to go along with any sales they are having in the store.
 
i think that there will always be a much higher demand for physical copies of games, the download thing can be a good idea, but that would also create a demand for bigger hard drives (unless you want to delete / re-download stuff when you've reached your HD's limit). I'm not too sure honestly, i can see there being digital downloads being pushed, but not having a stronger demand than an actual manual, case, and disc. also, how else would we get those special "limited edition" packs that these retailers profit so much from? (didnt mean to say that in a bad way, just hard to tell tone of voice on the internet :) )
 
DD only wont happen for a LOOOOOONG time. Hell..look at how many different formats music alone has been through over the years and record companies still churn out cds...hell, it isnt too hard to find a lot of new stuff on vinyl....
 
Digital Distribution won't be the primary form of games for a while. Considering how large these games are, and how small the hard drives are, you'd probably only be able to fit a few games at once.

It won't happen until console makers put larger hard drives in.
 
[quote name='Jmclark']Digital Distribution won't be the primary form of games for a while. Considering how large these games are, and how small the hard drives are, you'd probably only be able to fit a few games at once.

It won't happen until console makers put larger hard drives in.[/QUOTE]

Sony called and thought you should take a look at upgrading the PS3 hard drive.
 
MSUHitman summed it up well. DD is a long, long way off. So far off that it's not something to worry about at this time. Between the limitations that he cited and the fact that the vast majority of people, not the very small niche corner of the internet, want a physical copy, discs aren't going anywhere anytime soon. Even if there was a good DD infrastructure in place there is the much harder task of changing people's perceptions and buying habits. DD is just going to have to wait for a few generations to age out, no matter how bad some people want it ASAP.
 
[quote name='Dingleberry']What about the deals on Microsoft points to go along with these sales. I've never had a problem not paying full price for digital downloads and I don't see that changing.

I just bought 2 of the 4000 point cards for $29 each. That's already 40% off anything on xbla to go along with any sales they are having in the store.[/QUOTE]

Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner!

I was wondering if anyone would mention this. One of the reasons for having their own internal currency on XBLA is that it gives them control of the exchange rate and allows for discounts and promotions without actually changing the price of the products. This is regarded as better from a marketing perspective because it is a big negative to raise prices. Consumers don't like that but they love seeing the numbers go down. This is why Wal-mart has signage announcing when they've shaved a few pennies off an item but no fanfare when the price is increased.

DD is still in its infancy but growing fast. There is already a substantial portion of the console libraries that can only be had over the wire. More importantly, there is now a major profitable platform whose software is exclusively sold via download, the iPhone/iPod Touch.

A mere ten years ago, there was just one dedicated entertainment device that had any out of the box capacity for online access and commerce, the Sega Dreamcast. It's potential went nearly unexploited but later members of its generation advanced things considerably. The PS2 had the first console subscription MMORPGs. The original Xbox introduced XBLA. Things are advancing rapidly per generation. The market strength of DD has already grown greatly within the current generation and still has a ways to go before newer hardware becomes dominant.

True, not everyone has broadband, so any console dependent on it limits its market. But the rate of growth is such that a DD-only platform for home use, when its structural advantages are factored in, will be viable within the next generation. There is a very high crossover between those who regard broadband availability as a factor when house hunting and those who spend a lot on digital entertainment. Those without broadband are increasingly also those who were never in the market for interactive gaming products.
 
Let's summarize here:

1.) It seems highly likely that in the console space, download-only is a concept that's at least three or four years away, factoring in broadband penetration rates, the projected timetable for the next round of consoles, and "today's economic climate." (Blech!)

2.) Even with the next generation, I'm not so sure that all or even most titles will be available exclusively through digital distribution. My guess is that through the next generation, at least the major titles will be available in a physical format (disc), because not everyone will have the means to easily obtain digitally-distributed titles, the casual market probably won't respond well to the concept (remember, these will be $50-$60 games, not $0.99 music downloads), and it's a safe bet that there will be some degree of backwards compatibility (if Sony learned their lesson this time around...never a given).

3.) That said, I'm pretty sure we'll see a much bigger choice of small-to-midsized games available only via download. For these, I think the market will dictate the price, as it's clear that this generation is one big 'guinea pig' for the 'tiers' of an eventual pricing structure.

4.) Lastly, let's not kid ourselves about points codes. If you're buying a significantly discounted code online from a seller who is not a major online retailer, it's effectively stolen goods. You CAN'T convince me that they do it as a 'loss leader'. For what?? No, the console manufacturers will have breaks on game prices and probably work more with legitimate retailers and other companies for promotional tie-ins featuring codes, but they're not going to cut deals on the "currency" itself. At least, not substantial ones and as we've seen, not very often.


P.S. I'm pretty sure that while Microsoft, e.g., is predictably staying 'mum' on the XBLA points heists going on, that's the kind of thing they're going to have to very seriously address, as the more stuff is available through digital distribution, the more incentive people are going to have to buy the points, and the more that encourages the "scum and villainy" of the Internet to steal this shit via identity theft. Eventually, it will become too big to even think about ignoring.
 
it will be if idiots keep on buying them. just like dlc, iphone apps, etc. if you don't buy them then they would have been free. but people are idiots and businesses like to take advantage of idiots.
 
There are still deals on points, which translate into deals on digital download games/content...But I fully believe the publishers and many content owners want to see the elimination of the used market and potentially any marketplace where they don't control the pricing structure (ie Target clearance games.) And using "points" and codes makes it one step removed from real money, and allows them to control promotions and offers.

I think going digital is definitely technically feasible, and I think it offers some benefits to the consumer (we are likely to see a lot more good 5-20$ games over DD than disk format), but I think the ultimate winner in that scenario is the publishers, and the consumer loses more than he gains.

I am actually quite surprised so many "hardcore gamers" really support digital download, not just for things like Rock Band tracks and Castle Crashers, but for full-size and full-price games.
 
Aside from point deals console gamers are going to be pretty screwed over with digital distribution. I doubt we'll see any DD only consoles for a long time, but it's pretty clear from Microsoft's pathetic Deals of the Week and the fact they never drop the price on old content or make it free shows that competion is extreamly important, and of course Microsoft doesn't have any on Xbox Live.

Of course on the PC side of things it's going to be fine as long as there are mulitple sources of downloads, pretty much all of the digital distrubtion platforms have regular good deals. Pretty much every Steam weekend deal is guaranteed to be at least 50% off, some are 75% or more off.
 
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