i'm getting one for my brother's bday in may as soon as it comes out. so there will be one less available for you.
the way i see it, anyone who wanted an xbox already got one. anyone who likes the new color or the fact that it's a limited edition will get one. anyone who wants another xbox for halo link-ups will get one.
i personally waited for a price drop / limited edition package. i'm very happy to see that they happened at about the same time, so it's never been a better time to get one. so they might sell out.
or maybe microsoft is just pulling numbers out of the sky and actually making this available for the next 18 months. who knows.
but i seriously doubt 200k units will sell out in two months. either way, good luck.