How many PS3s will be on eBay at 6 PM on Friday?
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pimpinc333
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I say about 100,000+.
My actual Guess would be about 150,000.
My actual Guess would be about 150,000.
Photomotoz
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I think that majority will be the night before. Since auctions take some time to finish people will just put it up a bit early to get watchers and such.
opportunity777
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Not enough to drive the market price down 
I don't know the figures for the XBOX360 last year, but I don't think there were more than 10 to 20 K in units on eBay at any ONE TIME. Listings come and go and not everyone is going to buy the system to sell it. A lot of people want to get it for Xmas for people too (like me!).
I don't know the figures for the XBOX360 last year, but I don't think there were more than 10 to 20 K in units on eBay at any ONE TIME. Listings come and go and not everyone is going to buy the system to sell it. A lot of people want to get it for Xmas for people too (like me!).
jollydwarf
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Well, first of all the rumor out there is that the "U-S-A! U-S-A!!" is not getting the originally-anticipated 400,000 for Launch Day ONLY*. Let's just say it's down to 300,000 (rumors have it at far less than that). They'll all effectively be sold well before Friday morning, but those lucky enough to get online preorders won't have theirs immediately. Consider that as 50,000 right there. Of the remaining 250,000, let's estimate that 40% are sincere fans/gift buyers. So now we're down to 150,000, i.e. half of the initial 'adjusted' shipment project for launch. I'm saying 95% of that amount are going on eBay...eventually.
Not everyone is going to be hasty and foolish enough to list theirs right away. Some may sit back and let the e-vigilantes take their anger out on others. Some may just want to play the 'last minute desperation' card a month later. I'm going to say by 6 P.M. (EST?) on Friday, roughly 60,000 will be on eBay. Some will be bundled with games, some may even include a verified Wii preorder. But that translates to 20% of the revised initial shipment (300,000) within the first 18 hours of Launch. If it turns out to be 400,000, keep the percentage the same. Over the long haul, though, I believe at least half the PS3s purchased between now and Christmas are unequivocally for being held ransom on eBay.
P.S. Based on how the 360's auction value tapered off, I wouldn't expect to be able to get a $600 NEW PS3 on eBay for under $750 until well into February, if not March. And remember, they've got the European launch around that time, too. Based on how this is shaping up, I don't know how Sony doesn't lose serious ground to Microsoft and Nintendo this time around. But that's another post for another topic, right?
*--One clue to this is the big-time cutbacks on gaming store initial shipments. Another would be the talks of lesser retail stores now getting 'the big bubkis' for initial shipments.
Not everyone is going to be hasty and foolish enough to list theirs right away. Some may sit back and let the e-vigilantes take their anger out on others. Some may just want to play the 'last minute desperation' card a month later. I'm going to say by 6 P.M. (EST?) on Friday, roughly 60,000 will be on eBay. Some will be bundled with games, some may even include a verified Wii preorder. But that translates to 20% of the revised initial shipment (300,000) within the first 18 hours of Launch. If it turns out to be 400,000, keep the percentage the same. Over the long haul, though, I believe at least half the PS3s purchased between now and Christmas are unequivocally for being held ransom on eBay.
P.S. Based on how the 360's auction value tapered off, I wouldn't expect to be able to get a $600 NEW PS3 on eBay for under $750 until well into February, if not March. And remember, they've got the European launch around that time, too. Based on how this is shaping up, I don't know how Sony doesn't lose serious ground to Microsoft and Nintendo this time around. But that's another post for another topic, right?
*--One clue to this is the big-time cutbacks on gaming store initial shipments. Another would be the talks of lesser retail stores now getting 'the big bubkis' for initial shipments.
I'd guess we'll see about 100,000 pass through the holiday season. Some people may hold off from selling it at first, hoping for more of a frenzy as it gets closer to Christmas. And, for reference, I think eBay said there were between 10-15K auctions for the 360 last year.
ViolentLee
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[quote name='jollydwarf']Well, first of all the rumor out there is that the "U-S-A! U-S-A!!" is not getting the originally-anticipated 400,000 for Launch Day ONLY*. Let's just say it's down to 300,000 (rumors have it at far less than that). They'll all effectively be sold well before Friday morning, but those lucky enough to get online preorders won't have theirs immediately. Consider that as 50,000 right there. Of the remaining 250,000, let's estimate that 40% are sincere fans/gift buyers. So now we're down to 150,000, i.e. half of the initial 'adjusted' shipment project for launch. I'm saying 95% of that amount are going on eBay...eventually.
Not everyone is going to be hasty and foolish enough to list theirs right away. Some may sit back and let the e-vigilantes take their anger out on others. Some may just want to play the 'last minute desperation' card a month later. I'm going to say by 6 P.M. (EST?) on Friday, roughly 60,000 will be on eBay. Some will be bundled with games, some may even include a verified Wii preorder. But that translates to 20% of the revised initial shipment (300,000) within the first 18 hours of Launch. If it turns out to be 400,000, keep the percentage the same. Over the long haul, though, I believe at least half the PS3s purchased between now and Christmas are unequivocally for being held ransom on eBay.
P.S. Based on how the 360's auction value tapered off, I wouldn't expect to be able to get a $600 NEW PS3 on eBay for under $750 until well into February, if not March. And remember, they've got the European launch around that time, too. Based on how this is shaping up, I don't know how Sony doesn't lose serious ground to Microsoft and Nintendo this time around. But that's another post for another topic, right?
*--One clue to this is the big-time cutbacks on gaming store initial shipments. Another would be the talks of lesser retail stores now getting 'the big bubkis' for initial shipments.[/QUOTE]
Way to take 338 words to say what could've been said in one: 60,000. :lol: I don't disagree with your logic, mind you -- even if I do chuckle at your lack of brevity, your penchant for footnote and "P.S." use, and your refusal to use the "quote" button in any of the replies of yours that I've read.
Not everyone is going to be hasty and foolish enough to list theirs right away. Some may sit back and let the e-vigilantes take their anger out on others. Some may just want to play the 'last minute desperation' card a month later. I'm going to say by 6 P.M. (EST?) on Friday, roughly 60,000 will be on eBay. Some will be bundled with games, some may even include a verified Wii preorder. But that translates to 20% of the revised initial shipment (300,000) within the first 18 hours of Launch. If it turns out to be 400,000, keep the percentage the same. Over the long haul, though, I believe at least half the PS3s purchased between now and Christmas are unequivocally for being held ransom on eBay.
P.S. Based on how the 360's auction value tapered off, I wouldn't expect to be able to get a $600 NEW PS3 on eBay for under $750 until well into February, if not March. And remember, they've got the European launch around that time, too. Based on how this is shaping up, I don't know how Sony doesn't lose serious ground to Microsoft and Nintendo this time around. But that's another post for another topic, right?
*--One clue to this is the big-time cutbacks on gaming store initial shipments. Another would be the talks of lesser retail stores now getting 'the big bubkis' for initial shipments.[/QUOTE]
Way to take 338 words to say what could've been said in one: 60,000. :lol: I don't disagree with your logic, mind you -- even if I do chuckle at your lack of brevity, your penchant for footnote and "P.S." use, and your refusal to use the "quote" button in any of the replies of yours that I've read.
sblymnlcrymnl
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All of them.
jollydwarf
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Hey, 60,000 seems pretty arbitrary without the "Why".
I am verbose, true (double true, actually!), and I don't like using the "Quote" feature because I find it totally overused and aesthetically unpleasing, as it tends to clutter every single thread on the Internet. People also tend to lazily quote an entire post when only a sentence or two are pertinent to their reply.
P.S. I also hate emoticons. Notice that?
P.P.S. The closer this launch gets, the more the news seems to indicate the U.S. ain't gettin' more than the 300,000 that I estimated, and probably a good 50,000 less than that.
EDIT: Jim Rome is going off about the linesitters right now. He's talking about a guy in N.C. (Abdul Salem) that dropped off about fifty--FIFTY!!--homeless people in front of a Target to linesit. Are you
ing kidding me? I'm afraid of Americans.
I am verbose, true (double true, actually!), and I don't like using the "Quote" feature because I find it totally overused and aesthetically unpleasing, as it tends to clutter every single thread on the Internet. People also tend to lazily quote an entire post when only a sentence or two are pertinent to their reply.
P.S. I also hate emoticons. Notice that?
P.P.S. The closer this launch gets, the more the news seems to indicate the U.S. ain't gettin' more than the 300,000 that I estimated, and probably a good 50,000 less than that.
EDIT: Jim Rome is going off about the linesitters right now. He's talking about a guy in N.C. (Abdul Salem) that dropped off about fifty--FIFTY!!--homeless people in front of a Target to linesit. Are you
ing kidding me? I'm afraid of Americans.
bread's done