Is the PS3 Market Being Overestimated?

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kujustin

CAG Veteran
I realize that I get a skewed perception by hanging out on internet message boards, but even factoring that in I think that a good 1 out of 3 ppl buying the new system are doing so in order to eBay it.

Are the prices really going to hold up at the level some seem to think?

Right now $1600 is pretty standard for a PS3 on eBay, but the only ppl who can sell are the very select few with a pre-order receipt.

If 400k units go on sale 11/17 and even just 1 out of 4 people sell we're looking at over 100,000 units up for sale. There's absolutely no way there are 100,000 ppl out there that will pay even $1200 for a gaming system.

Are we going to see a huge deflation in values on launch date?
 
i think the true prices will settle in about a week after launch on ebay. the first days prices are always inflated.
 
I'm not at all sure it's really going to be as many as 25% of the units resold. Seriously. I'm not saying it's unrealistic, but it's got to be on the high side of likely. Sure, a lot will be sold on craigslist as well as eBay, but I doubt 100k will be.

I know I'm only selling if more than one of my chances comes through. Or maybe if I'm glued to Twilight Princess after Sunday...
 
Can someone fill us in on how the 360 went down?

How many units were shipped, what were they selling for, etc?
 
[quote name='kujustin']Can someone fill us in on how the 360 went down?

How many units were shipped, what were they selling for, etc?[/quote] around 800,000 were shipped before christmas. they sold for an average of around 750 bucks but close to 1000 bucks on launch day. they sold out the first day, and were a bitch to find after that.
 
The same thing happened with the Tickle Me Elmos. The first evening they were going for upwards of $300, but at that time there were very few ending since they were placed in advance by people who anticipated the demand. Later that night, more and more auctions popped up driving demand downward. The next day after the launch so many people had listed Elmos with one day auctions there was literally an Elmo auction ending at a rate of like 5 per minute, which drove the price down even further.

With the PS3 I suspect a similar situation will unfold. The best time to list them on eBay is obviously now since the market is still uncertain and only a fraction of the PS3s can actually be listed due to the new preordering rules. At launch, I think the prices, while still profitable, will be significantly lower than they currently are since a huge percentage of all PS3s will wind up on eBay (I expect more to wind up there than anyone thinks). Demand should hold strong throughout the holiday season and may actually rise as it gets closer to Christmas. There's two schools of thought about listing at launch. One one hand, launch day may actually be the worst time to list since eBay will be flooded with them. On the other hand, those who are willing to pay $1,300+ may buy up what they need on launch day leaving less demand as the holiday season continues. I tend to side with the former idea, but will probably (if I get one) list it at launch just to cash out in advance and take the safe route.

With the Wii, I'm thinking that anyone who lists one after launch may be screwed. With the Wii, I think the demand will be there, but I also think that the supply is being underestimated. If you were to list a Wii right now, you could make a decent profit due to the market uncertainty. Launch day will be a different story depending on how the supply situation pans out. If there ends up being plenty of Wii's in stock, as I think there will be, on launch day the eBay market will be absolutely flooded with profiteers and the market will be awful, possibly even generating little or no profit. Anyway, that's just my opinion. Take it for what it's worth.
 
[quote name='thagoat']around 800,000 were shipped before christmas. they sold for an average of around 750 bucks but close to 1000 bucks on launch day. they sold out the first day, and were a bitch to find after that.[/quote]
Don't forget that the 360 had around 300,000 to 350,000 launch systems, which is even less then the PS3.
 
PS3 is pretty much profit anytime before christmas and even a bit after. The only question is how much above cost will it sell. Expect to double your money. And No this is not speculation. Imagine gamers plus the hoards of early adopters who can't even get thier damn LG/Sony Bluray players. Even at $800 the Ps3 is still a great bargain for early adopters and AV freaks for a Bluray player alone.

and the 360 had well above 300k. I'm pretty sure it was more like 800k
 
[quote name='Zoglog']

and the 360 had well above 300k. I'm pretty sure it was more like 800k[/QUOTE]
anyone know? this would be nice to know to gauge my odds when getting a spot in line.
 
[quote name='D4rkN1ght']anyone know? this would be nice to know to gauge my odds when getting a spot in line.[/quote] yes, like i said earlier, they shipped 800,000
 
I get the feeling that eBay will become oversaturated with PS3s and quite a few people will get less than what they paid and lose on their "sure thing." I don't know if there will be anywhere near 100k systems up their but I think the oversaturation point would be somewhere below that number. I won't feel sorry for anyone that doesn't get their money back and be glad for those that get those cheaper units.
 
[quote name='FriskyTanuki']I get the feeling that eBay will become oversaturated with PS3s and quite a few people will get less than what they paid and lose on their "sure thing." I don't know if there will be anywhere near 100k systems up their but I think the oversaturation point would be somewhere below that number. I won't feel sorry for anyone that doesn't get their money back and be glad for those that get those cheaper units.[/quote]

no way it will be oversaturated. even if all 400k units were posted on ebay at the same time, they would still sell for way more than retail. just the sheer number of people in the world that want one relative to the number of ebay buyers pretty much makes it statistically impossible for oversatuation at this point.
 
[quote name='gaelan']no way it will be oversaturated. even if all 400k units were posted on ebay at the same time, they would still sell for way more than retail. just the sheer number of people in the world that want one relative to the number of ebay buyers pretty much makes it statistically impossible for oversatuation at this point.[/quote]
It's just a hunch I have. I don't doubt that it could be false, but I wouldn't be surprised if it does happen. We'll see what happens in two weeks.
 
I'm pruning through the eBay auctions now with my auction monitoring software. Roughly, I'd say 1,500 valid auctions have been put up already.
 
i get the feeling that if there is a shortage at launch, which looks possible with the 20% reduction in japanese launch systems, then youll be looking at 2k systems.
 
I don't think they'll sell for nearly as much as people think, $1500+. I feel the launch days one will, but by a week afterwards, it will probably be around $1000 for one, the Xbox 360 sold for what? around $600 prior and after christmas.
 
That's why I'm putting my PS3 up on CraigsList. Tell them to meet you in person with a postal money order for the amount agreed on and you're good to go. No worries about losing your money to a dispute from the buyer through Paypal, no worries about shipping. The only real worry is getting robbed, but hell, that could happen to you coming out of Best Buy with the PS3 too.

And even if you only make $300 in profit on the system, that's $300 for standing in a line. Maybe some of you are rich enough that $300 doesn't matter, but I'm willing to watch movies in the cold on my laptop all night for that kind of money.
 
But that was the Xbox. I think the PS brand is leaps and bounds more popular, and with all the shortages from now onto mid next year and the "horders" grabbing up systems to resell them... I'm not seeing the prices dropping from the estimated 1-2k for a few months.
 
it's quite common for gamers to understimate the playstation brand recognition to the more casual gamers.

people forget that playstation is what got a ton of these people into gaming in the first place.
 
I have a pre-order... any suggestions on when I should start and end my auction? Start it on the 10th and have it close on the 17th? Or have it start on the 17th?
 
also there is zero unit in europe, and there will be some european buyer will to pay big money. Remember the only time PSP's value double is from the Japanese launch.
 
[quote name='Tespo125']I have a pre-order... any suggestions on when I should start and end my auction? Start it on the 10th and have it close on the 17th? Or have it start on the 17th?[/QUOTE]

I'd go ahead and start it now or wait until sometime next week once the hype machine really gets rolling for the general public.
 
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