My theory on why winning format war does NOT mean no promotions

NamelessMC

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Maybe on equipment, but let me explain.

I'm a techee, but I'm also an economy student, so I know things about cost, target groups, etc.

When Bluray and HDDVD technology was released, as a lot of you are aware, the technology is very expensive. As is the cost of production to reproduce the master films in HD format on each media. The reason studios rarely adopted multi-platform HD media is because frankly, the cost of production for each type would far exceed the profit margins. Especially when you factor double dipping, upconverting DVD players and budget.

When a new media and entertainment technology is released, the prices target an audience called "urban trendsetters" or, in a more understandable language, "upscale enthusiasts". These are the types of people that bought HDTV's back when the only high definition content was on a computer. The people that invested into DVD players back when VHS was king and everyone was saying, "It doesn't look good enough for me to spend $500 on a DVD player". My mom waited until 2001 to buy a DVD player because the price dropped to $250. She bought a Pioneer unit that had progressive scan capabilities.

The truth is, not a lot of the money comes from the actual sale of equipment. In all honesty, it'll likely be another year or a year and a half before the yield on the components for a BD player are so great that the unit's cost can come down and still yield a profit. If you worked at a retail chain, you'd know. HDDVD players and BD players are among the lowest cost margin product in a store, only second to propietary technology like iPods, laptops and game systems. Where Sony yields most of it profit, is likely from endorsements, development kits, marketing and accessories. (Hence HDMI cable cost, believe it or not, only a margin of the profit from Monster cable sales actually goes back to Monster) The same as the PS2 in the beginning and the PS3 now, the system is a loss for Sony, just like the "other system" is a loss for that "other" company.

So to cut the technical jargon short, I'll move on to the economics reason why we will still get promotions on BD players and media, even after winning the format war.

There's always someone that you have to convince to adopt.

Some people weren't affected either way, by the format war, but rather having a valid reason to upgrade. It's no mystery that BD media is the future of information unversal media. When DVD was first released, people NEVER fathomed that DVD disks would be the standard format for PC software, video-games, data transfer along with movies. It's called top-down selling, but to demographics instead of individual customers. You release something at the highest cost point to cater to the most luxurious lifestyle audience. Then you bring it down a notch, so it's "just barely" affordable for the demographic below it. Then so on, then so forth. That's how you maximize profit.

Sony isn't going to sit around and go, "Okay now that we won and we're the only choice, let's milk the wealthy for having propietary format to yield some profit." They're going to say, "Okay now that we're the propietary format, how can we get even more people to adopt Bluray? 2 for 1 deals? Rebates? Sony card promotions?"

Sony is very smart. And any smart company knows, you gotta give some to get some.
 
I take for granted that not everyone knows this having already earned a business degree, but good write up. An oligopoly is never the ideal market for a consumer because the competition is at a lower level. As much as "we" bicker about being fanboys and having the better system/format, anyone who is slightly educated would realize that competition between sellers almost ALWAYS means win for buyers.

As far as I know, Sony does not hold the rights to blu-ray exclusively, but rather as part of an organization of major corporations that all invested in it.

And by the way, I hated intermediate economics. I took the same professor for intro to micro and macro and she refused to give us mathematical equations so long as we understood the concept. My first two weeks of intermediate was a math review.
 
Simply put... there stilll isnt enough interest from the general public in the whole high def disc formats... I still know far too many people who dont seem to care about blu ray, people do n ot want to turn around every decade or so and replace their movie collection... should be more like once in a generation type thing

Early adopters is another term used often for the group of consumers that new technology needs to get its foot in the door. People who didnt mind paying the outrageous costs associated with owning the newest innovations before anyone else

Sony will make the money from being the originator of this new proprietary format... since they get a piece of the movie pie, putting the blu ray into the PS3 was a logical choice... givent thier track record with the PS2 and dvd, the support was pretty good for them out of the gate

PS3 sale still are lagging behind the other consoles overall... and most people who buy PS3's think games first
 
If Blu-Ray hopes to escape the niche market and become the mainstream successor to regular dvd then there will have to be more promotions as well as steep price decline in the hardware costs. For it to truly take over they will need to find a way to get sub 199$ and eventually sub 99$ players out soon and they need a much higher number of households with HD tv's.
 
Another thing on my mind: I hate buying movies because I rarely watch them more than once. My girlfriend and I are the couple that are always the ones visiting and never hosting. We have a couple we hang out with that has almost over 400 movies I'd bet. If we go over there and say, "Let's watch Out Cold" it's on in 2 minutes. I can see why people get into it, but it's just not for me.

That said, I went on a blu-ray buying phase around the holiday season. After I cooled off and found the trading forum on here I sent out most of them to upgrade my games. I replaced Superbad blu-ray with a DVD copy and to be honest, the difference is barely noticable on my 720p TV after the PS3 upconverts it. I guess my situation is that I was sold on it, and now I'm not anymore.

In the end, I'm mostly validating your point zman about a lot of people not feeling like it is worth it to upgrade yet. My cheap ass never wanted to buy DVDs when they were in the $15 range and it'll be a while before BD come down from the $25 range.
 
I thought it was funny how there were a lot of articles bitching about high BluRay prices now that they've one, then Target throws a buy one get one at us.
 
One thing to keep in mind is that, we've been so focused on Blu Ray vs HD DVD, that we've forgotten what Sony's true goal is regarding blu ray. Ousting HD DVD was just the first step but Sony's true goal is to have Blu Ray replace DVD. Keeping this goal in mind, then its evidence that promotions for BR discs have just begun. Sony needs to get BR discs to be the same price as DVDs, so that DVDs will seem obsolete.
 
Blu ray isn't made by sony...there is a group of companies that are behind it. There is over 136 companies in this group that get the licensing rights from sales of players and the media.
 
[quote name='ryanbph']Blu ray isn't made by sony...there is a group of companies that are behind it. There is over 136 companies in this group that get the licensing rights from sales of players and the media.[/QUOTE]

But it IS another of sony's proprietary formats... they have the most to gain or lose by its success... obviously they do need to convince Joe 6 Pack that they want it or it could end up another niche product like UMD movies
 
[quote name='ryanbph']Blu ray isn't made by sony...there is a group of companies that are behind it. There is over 136 companies in this group that get the licensing rights from sales of players and the media.[/QUOTE]

But it IS another of sony's proprietary formats... they have the most to gain or lose by its success... obviously they do need to convince Joe 6 Pack that they want it or it could end up another niche product like UMD movies, probably not to the extreme of the UMD, but it could happen
 
To me, whats killing the whole thing is that the price of the software/movies hasn't come down. Yes, there are killer sales, but thats just it, they're sales. Its been nearly two years since they both formats came out really. And in that same time frame of DVDs debut, prices started getting cheaper for the movies. Hell, I still remember that the original MSRP of US Marshals was 15 bucks (this was back in Oct/Nov of '98). And that sites at that time were going ape shit at how great that price point was. Though, I remember CompUSA had some of the best deals in late 98/early 99. Got all 3 of the original released of the Die Hards for 15 a pop...

[quote name='zman73']But it IS another of sony's proprietary formats... they have the most to gain or lose by its success... obviously they do need to convince Joe 6 Pack that they want it or it could end up another niche product like UMD movies, probably not to the extreme of the UMD, but it could happen[/QUOTE]

Ahh yes, UMD. I do love it when some dumbass companies has the grand idea of using the work "UNIVERSAL" in a format that only ONE product can playback. I can't remember though, but wasn't the PS3 going to have the ability to play them back or something?
 
Their biggest battle against DVD is the fact that it's still a horrendously entrenched format. Back when it was VHS, people had collections, but it was nowhere near what DVD brought to the table. DVDs became an acceptable thing to buy, a cheap thing to buy and, as a result, spurred on huge collections.

I just look at the people I know now, both young and old, and many that had VHS collections of 15-20, now have DVD collections of over 100. Then, the people with VHS collections of over 100, now have mind-bogglingly huge numbers of DVDs.

That's the biggest stumbling block. For the switch from VHS to DVD, they were dealing with a HUGE quality jump even with the same equipment, and people were nearly as entrenched in VHS as they are with DVD.

10 years ago, replacing my VHS collection was nothing. Now, replacing my DVD collection? Ha, no way in hell. In order to *beat* DVD, that's where Sony needs to be... in a place good enough to convince people to re-buy collections that have already cost tens of thousands of dollars.

Me, I don't see it happening.
 
The have to have some price drops on players and movies soon if they want to seriously challenge DVD for marketshare.

If they just want to be a profitable niche product they can keep going the way they are, but if they want to push to replace DVD prices must come down.

I have an HDTV and buy a decent amount of DVDs (have around 300) and I'm in no rush to jump into Bluray at current prices as upconverted DVDs look more than good enough to me.
 
The UMD is Universal in that sense that its used for games, movies, and music. The UMD is actually a very nice format that could have been very popular if the loading times were a tad better and the price was cheaper.

Blu-Ray will be the second most dominant optical media format for years to come (it will be behind DVD for at least a few more years).
 
[quote name='HumanSnatcher']To me, whats killing the whole thing is that the price of the software/movies hasn't come down. Yes, there are killer sales, but thats just it, they're sales. Its been nearly two years since they both formats came out really. And in that same time frame of DVDs debut, prices started getting cheaper for the movies. Hell, I still remember that the original MSRP of US Marshals was 15 bucks (this was back in Oct/Nov of '98). And that sites at that time were going ape shit at how great that price point was. Though, I remember CompUSA had some of the best deals in late 98/early 99. Got all 3 of the original released of the Die Hards for 15 a pop...



Ahh yes, UMD. I do love it when some dumbass companies has the grand idea of using the work "UNIVERSAL" in a format that only ONE product can playback. I can't remember though, but wasn't the PS3 going to have the ability to play them back or something?[/QUOTE]

I did remember it being rumored for awhile that the PS3 would have UMD playback... but it never panned out obviously... at least with the PSP slim tv playback is possible
 
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