Predictions for when this economic thing is all said and done.

S

speedracer

Banned
I'm just curious where everyone's at here. What do you think the bottom will look like? Do you think Obama will do anything of substance? CAN Obama do anything of substance? How long do you think it'll last? Who will be the winners and losers? Are there gonna be Hoovervilles again? Is public works ala Keynes the way to go?
 
[quote name='speedracer']What do you think the bottom will look like? [/quote]

Therein lies most of the problem. Nobody has a clear idea of how big the problem is. Some people say there are $5 trillion in toxic investments while I've heard other people claim there are $150 trillion.

[quote name='speedracer']Do you think Obama will do anything of substance?[/quote]

I think Obama is trying. Presidents such as Reagan realized there was little they could do other than project the right image. Presidents such as Bush projected the wrong image.

[quote name='speedracer']CAN Obama do anything of substance?[/quote]

He could end the war in Iraq and Afghanistan with the blessing of the Congress. That would free up hundreds of billions of dollars each year that could be used or wasted building up the home economy.

[quote name='speedracer']How long do you think it'll last?[/quote]

We've been in a recession for a year already. Things aren't improving yet. So, another year is a given. 2 years are probably optimistic. 10 years if we don't start behaving responsibly (ie. ending the wars and demanding investors accept some losses).
 
[quote name='fatherofcaitlyn']Some people say there are $5 trillion in toxic investments [/QUOTE]
Well, the Federal Reserve pledged 7 trillion dollars towards the credit crunch, so I'm willing to bet we're doing okay on that front.
 
I would dispute the claim that there is little Presidents can do outside of projecting the right image. And Reagan did plenty - his principles have been destroying the country over the last 26 years.

FDR did plenty, going so far as saying at the start that if the Congress would not help him, he would take it upon himself and his office to do it anyway.

Things are going to get worse, and stay bad for a long time. Even if Obama governs more progressively than he appears to be (he's not quite progressive enough for me), the hole we've been digging for decades will take time to get out of. The positive investments that need to be made will take time to pay off. We're at least 5 years away only if we take the appropriate steps next year. If not, then we can stay in a ditch until true progressive changes are made.
 
My guess is the stock market will just bounce around like it has been for a while, probably bottom out arouund 7,000-7500 and bounche from that low to 9,000-9,500.

Unemployement will probably bottom out at 7.5-8% if I had to guess.

I'd say it will take 3-4 years for things to start another prolonged upswing.

So no, no Hooverstown. And not even a depression. Just a fairly bad recession is my guess.
 
I personally think that we continue to get the typical Santa Clause rally and with the markets being down as much as they are we could easily see a run up to 1000 on the S&P.

Then come late Q1/early Q2 of next year we look to retest the lows before putting in a final bottom for this downturn based on a late 09 early 2010 upturn.

But at this point the only thing that is really guaranteed is that we will continue to see these constant 3-4% intraday swings for maybe months to come.
 
[quote name='dmaul1114']Unemployement will probably bottom out at 7.5-8% if I had to guess. [/quote]

If the Big 3 fall, that's unlikely.

Right now. We're at 6.7%. If the Big 3 go under, that's another 3 million on the unemployment rolls.

As a nation of 300 million, only 200 million are of working age (18-67). That's another 1.5% of the workforce or 8.2% in total unemployment. Throw in every other company and government agency forced to cut staff and we could hit 10% unemployment real easy.
 
[quote name='fatherofcaitlyn']If the Big 3 fall, that's unlikely.
[/QUOTE]

I don't see the government letting them fall.

But really it's hard to say what will happen with the unemployment rate and stock market. I'm mainly basing my "opinion" off of various estimates I've read. But who knows how right they are.
 
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[quote name='speedracer']I'm just curious where everyone's at here. What do you think the bottom will look like? [/quote] It is impossible to predict, but we should be prepared for the worst.
Do you think Obama will do anything of substance?
Click to expand...
No.
CAN Obama do anything of substance?
Click to expand...
Yes.
Who will be the winners and losers?
Click to expand...
The winners will be those who are politically connected. The losers will be those who are not politically connected.
Is public works ala Keynes the way to go?
Click to expand...
No.
 
I think the DOW might flirt with the 6000's at one point. There is still another wave of crap hitting the fan. Not to mention the dollar being in the tank from all of the printing press action by the Fed.
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http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2007/10/imf-mortgage-reset-chart.html
 
The US dollar is toast. We've already had record amounts of stimulus and paper printing, and we are going to do a hell of alot more over the coming 12 months. There is bipartisan consensus that we need to print print print, spend spend spend, inflate inflate inflate. I think they may succeed in buying temporary prosperity...but this will be artificial and it will not last because our government is utterly bankrupt. The entire system needs to collapse in on itself and we need to let some real PAIN sink into the system before we truly hit rock bottom. Painkillers can only get you so far when you have cancer. If you want to be cured, you need painful and unpleasant radiation treatment..and our politicians have been preventing that at all costs.

They are going to throw a multi trillion dollar party with your tax money and reinflate things again..but when that bubble pops, it will be the depression to end all depressions.
 
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[quote name='Capitalizt']The US dollar is toast. We've already had record amounts of stimulus and paper printing, and we are going to do a hell of alot more over the coming 12 months. There is bipartisan consensus that we need to print print print, spend spend spend, inflate inflate inflate. I think they may succeed in buying temporary prosperity...but this will be artificial and it will not last because our government is utterly bankrupt. The entire system needs to collapse in on itself and we need to let some real PAIN sink into the system before we truly hit rock bottom. Painkillers can only get you so far when you have cancer. If you want to be cured, you need painful and unpleasant radiation treatment..and our politicians have been preventing that at all costs.

They are going to throw a multi trillion dollar party with your tax money and reinflate things again..but that bubble pops, it will be the depression to end all depressions.[/QUOTE]
It's like being a drug addict. Sure, another hit will feel good for now and quitting would be painful, but it needs to be done, and the more you put it off the worse it's going to be.
 
We are royally fucked.

The dollar will soon be worthless. Gov't is under siege by bankers and wall street... plus, it is run by incompetent dolts.

There is very little production done by our society; we are mainly service and consumer oriented. That is not sustainable.

True unemployment (not the fake figures given out by our gov't), will be ~25%.

It's going to be bad...
I'd recommend buying gold and spreading your money around overseas banks. Plus get ready for tax revolts and food riots... as the government tries to further squeeze the little guy.

And if you are going for a useless degree in college (e.g. pol sci, sociology, english, etc.) after which you won't be able to get a job, quit now, stop wasting your money, and go into something that has a future: engineering, medicine, hard sciences (focusing on alternative energies), etc.

I've already got my EU passport in hand and will have a low threshold for bailing when things really start to fall apart...
 
I don't know when this will bottom out or end. But I do predict that next Christmas's hot hard-to-find item will be a can of pork and beans.

Oh and check it out, Congress just got a raise, even while we almost unanimously disapprove of their job. I thought it was worthy of it's own thread.
 
[quote name='BigT']We are royally fucked.

The dollar will soon be worthless. Gov't is under siege by bankers and wall street... plus, it is run by incompetent dolts.

There is very little production done by our society; we are mainly service and consumer oriented. That is not sustainable.

True unemployment (not the fake figures given out by our gov't), will be ~25%.

It's going to be bad...
I'd recommend buying gold and spreading your money around overseas banks. Plus get ready for tax revolts and food riots... as the government tries to further squeeze the little guy.

And if you are going for a useless degree in college (e.g. pol sci, sociology, english, etc.) after which you won't be able to get a job, quit now, stop wasting your money, and go into something that has a future: engineering, medicine, hard sciences (focusing on alternative energies), etc.

I've already got my EU passport in hand and will have a low threshold for bailing when things really start to fall apart...[/QUOTE]
An EU passport could normally be useful but is that really a good plan B? If the shit really hits the fan here, it'll already be splattered all over the room over there.
 
[quote name='rickonker']An EU passport could normally be useful but is that really a good plan B? If the shit really hits the fan here, it'll already be splattered all over the room over there.[/quote]

Yeah, but the US will be the epicenter of the meltdown... if you are gonna stay here, stock up on non-perishable food, gold, and guns... :) Now, I am using a bit of hyperbole, but I truly do believe that its going to get really bad from 2009-2012... coincidentally, didn't the Mayan calendar predict the end of the world in 2012? I'll have to catch up on my back log of videogames before then...
 
[quote name='mykevermin']BigT has reached my levels of cynicism and fear. Wow. It must be bad.[/quote]

Yeah, but BigT takes the beauty of cynicism and fear and translates it into another wrong answer.

Nonperishable goods/canned goods? I bought a bag of flour and made some bread with it a month or two back. Caitlyn and I liked it. The wife was nonplussed. The cost? After yeast, it was the same as a loaf of sliced bread. As one of my coworkers reminds me constantly, a can of Kroger brand red beans costs 70 cents. We are going to suffer more inflation in food costs, but it means meals will get simpler and cooked at home instead of a restaurant. That can of red beans might cost $1.40, but not $99.99. Having more than say a month of food stored in your house raises storage and hiding concerns. If you have six months of food in your single family house, where are you putting it so that a group of hungry thieves won't find it while you're at work? There isn't much point to spending a month's wages on supplies just so some group of assholes lives quite well after a little B&E.

Guns? Meh. The financial crisis isn't the zombie apocalypse. I can see owning a hunting rifle if you hunt. I can see owning a few pistols or shotgun for home defense. I can also see owning a few hundred rounds for every type of gun owned. Beyond that, buying a large number of guns or thousands of rounds of ammo is just a big red flag. If we go into martial law, you're only going to face three types of invaders: the cops, gangs or hungry hordes. If it is the cops, your only choices are to be taken dead or alive. If it is gangs, they aren't interested if they know they could be shot. If it is a hungry horde, they'll lose interest after a few of them are shot and screaming.

Gold? :roll: Really? Let's assume gold is $1500 per ounce. How much are you going to get back after you fill up your gas tank, buy a week's worth of groceries or pay daycare? People don't have scales to parcel out gold by the hundredths of the ounce. Are you going to pay your mortgage, electric or credit card bill by scraping gold dust into an envelope? I could see silver used as cash for daily consumption, but nothing that involves postage. Also, having a precious metal you can't eat or use puts you at the mercy of somebody with edible goods such as food or utility goods such as shoes and clothes.

Until something major happens (Dow 5000), the best bet for everybody to get through this recession is to pay down debt.
 
FOC, I don't know if BigT meant this, but hording guns is a great financial investment, especially when things get dire.

Guns are always worth something. The worse things get, the more valuable they are. What they are used for is just a nice secondary bonus. Besides food, guns are the one thing that will always have great trade value or go up in money value with age.
 
Gun sales are up like...46% since the election. People are obviously getting prepared.

Interesting note. They've created the semi-automatic shotgun. Peace through superior firepower will prevail over the incoming Zombie Apocalypse.
 
[quote name='BigT']Listen to my favorite radio talk show, John and Ken on KFI 640. They recently had an interview with Gerald Celente (http://www.trendsresearch.com/) who brings up some good points...

The segment starts at around 32:45 on this file: http://a1135.g.akamai.net/f/1135/18...227/podcast/LOSANGELES-CA/KFI-AM/JK121308.mp3[/quote]


Meh. The guest sounded sane, but I didn't hear stock up on food, ammo and gold. He mentioned having multiple bank accounts around the world in different currencies. That's nice if you own your home and are looking to maintain a nest egg. Most people? That's a waste of time.

He is right that there will more corporate bankruptcies. He is right that local government will ATTEMPT to raise taxes on producing people to keep nonproducing people happy. As always, the government has to figure out how to piss people off just before the point where they'll revolt. Local government will figure it out first and the federal government will figure it out last.

However, he is wrong that we can't become a productive country again. Yes, our GDP is based mostly on consumption. As the dollar loses value, countries that produce will have to raise their prices. As the cost of those goods overseas becomes greater than the cost of those goods domestically, those jobs come back to this country. How the overseas and domestic governments act will determine how quickly a job returns.

I see the next few years potentially being very painful, but I don't see the US as an underdeveloped nation. If this recession really goes the route of the depression, this country's GDP will simply transform from consumption only to shared production and consumption.
 
[quote name='thrustbucket']FOC, I don't know if BigT meant this, but hording guns is a great financial investment, especially when things get dire.

Guns are always worth something. The worse things get, the more valuable they are. What they are used for is just a nice secondary bonus. Besides food, guns are the one thing that will always have great trade value or go up in money value with age.[/quote]

Yes, but guns attract the attention of the government. If people are really scared gubmint is going to take their guns the same way gold was confiscated in 1933, having guns is a piss poor investment and keeping guns will be a lethal mistake.

If guns aren't confiscated in the next year or two, their value will plummet as people get tired of tripping over dozens of rifles and shotguns and bulk sell them to anybody.

We're effectively in a gun bubble. It ends when the government takes the guns by force or when people realize the government isn't going to take the guns.

The other thing I would argue is that things could get dire, but they don't have to.
 
I disagree. Gun values don't go up strictly based on laws or potential laws against them. They go up simply for fear of the unknown. Too many people have seen Red Dawn. Stockpiling guns isn't out of fear of the government, it's mostly out of fear of government losing control, imo.
 
[quote name='thrustbucket']I disagree. Gun values don't go up strictly based on laws or potential laws against them. They go up simply for fear of the unknown. Too many people have seen Red Dawn. Stockpiling guns isn't out of fear of the government, it's mostly out of fear of government losing control, imo.[/quote]

Wouldn't it be better to stockpile alcohol than guns?

It is perfectly legal to anybody over the age of 21.

Wines and hard liquors don't go down in value with age.

The pool of people you can woo with booze is larger than the pool of people you can woo with guns.
 
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