Sanders and Trump will lose.

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Donken

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I just wanted to get my prediction in before the actual voting starts :) I think both of these candidates have a strong anti government, fight the power mentality, which I approve of. However I think the people that are actually going to vote are not going to carry them through.

I'm from Vegas so I just want to get my bet in before the betting closes.
 
I'm in the camp that I firmly believe that Clinton could club a baby seal on live TV and the Dems would still pick her as their candidiate (and since I don't think any of the 'pus have a chance of actually getting elected, I'd put $20 on her winning it all) - which is a shame, because Sanders is the first mainstream candidate for President that I could willingly vote for in good conscious...

With that said - where does the DNC go if she *does* get indicted in the email biz? At this point, it seems pretty clear-cut, she sent information marked classified using her private, non-secure, email server... It's an interesting trainwreck to watch, that's for sure.
 
UncleBob said:
With that said - where does the DNC go if she *does* get indicted in the email biz? At this point, it seems pretty clear-cut, she sent information marked classified using her private, non-secure, email server... It's an interesting trainwreck to watch, that's for sure.
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You going to ask them to indict Rice and Powell as well.... you know just so you won't be seen as a partisan hack ;)

 
Not a huge fan of either of those, so haul 'em off to jail. :D

And which party do you believe I'm partisan to? I mean, I've given money to one Presidential candidate this year. Can you guess who?
 
I think Clinton is the most qualified because she's the only idiot in the race that can handle her sh- when faced with a bunch of lunatics. But I want Sanders vs Trump because of my propensity to want the s- to be stirred. We are screwed anyway, because like Hollywood movies, the best President we need is probably toiling away off-off-off-off Broadway Washington.

 
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Has there ever been a candidate that boasts were just gonna WIN ALL THE TIME? The fucking confidence on that dude it's badass. Like he legit believes that. Or does he? Thoughts?

 
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Hm. I've said many times since 2008 that Clinton would be the next president. But man, I realy underestimated how much the right, independents and even many on the left just do not like her.

Democrats turn out so far has been low. Is this because D's see this as a less contested, automatic win for Hillary, so it's not necessary/not going to change if they go out and vote? Or are they just *that* disengaged (I'd be interested in reading some thoughts on how two party outsiders - Sanders and Trump - have managed to make pretty major waves this election)?

Meanwhile Republican turnout has been high so far (again, could me due to the Republican race being seen as more contested). I really can't see any of the Republican candidates winning on their own merits and I'm beginning to think Clinton wouldn't stand a chance against a good, sane Republican candidate (yeah, yeah, I know...). I'm beginning to think this might be the year that "None of the Above" could take the ballot, if it were an option.
 
What's going to bite us in the ass more than Hillary or Trump is the fact that ALL of the seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs. The Democrats should be doing everything to get their base to actually vote. They forget that Congress actually writes the laws. If they have any problems, they should consider why this election is important. But Hillary and Bernie are pretty much being putzes.

 
Yup. I'm not sure what could be done about that though. Clinton is pretty much locked-in for the D nomination - and, frankly, I just don't see her energizing the base whatsoever. The only way I see the turnout working in her (and the rest of the party's) favor is if Trump ends up with the 'Pub ticket.
 
I think a lot of people just expect Clinton to win the nomination and are okay with it but not especially enthusiastic about it.  I'm in that camp myself -- I think she'll be a fine workhorse president who'll put forth an agenda I can live with and keep the lights on but nothing about her makes me start knocking on doors.  On the other hand, I don't see Sanders a realistic prospect but if magic faeries made him win I'd still vote for him in the general because he's still a million times more likely to have an agenda I can live with than anyone with an (R) after their name.

Right now, Trump is the logical choice to win the GOP nomination.  There's really no rational argument for him losing at the moment.  That could change of course; Kasich might get out fast or some other shift but it's hard to see it happening.  Carson will probably leave soon but his share is so minor and polls suggest it fragmenting among Rubio, Trump and Kasich.  But Kasich is making the (legitimate) claim that he came in 2nd in New Hampshire versus Rubio's sad 5th place and didn't even try in S. Carolina so there's no reason for him to get out before the real tests in March.  Cruz will want to stay in until at least Super Tuesday and likely the contests beyond so this is going to be a 4-5 field for the next several weeks at least and that really benefits Trump. 

But, what do I know?  I started this contest thinking that Clinton was likely to face Walker in November.

 
Holy Sh......ts    Insult Bush 9/11 and Iraq and still win conservatives vote.   You think Trump was a dickhead Democrat...  lol

Even Dems don't have the balls to go that far....

 
Trump just keeps playing the "I'm pissed off with how things have been and it's going to be different with me!!!" card. And the only thing that would be different with him is he'd act like a 3 year old when Congress won't do what he wants. That's honestly the allure of both Trump and Sanders...they both WANT to change so much. But it's not that easy.

American politics is way too big of a machine to just yank to the right or left in a way that anybody would notice a sudden change. My Facebook feed is littered with jokes about the Affordable Care Act all the time, with people failing to realize that it's only in the state its in because Republicans fought it tooth and nail, until it was bastardized into something that wouldn't destroy private health insurance. Oh, I'm sorry...you made Obama and his team go back and change it 12 times before you'd even give it the time of day. No wonder it's not as great as originally planned.

This is just "Yes, We Can!" in 2016. Everybody wants things to get drastically better. But rarely does that happen. I'm all for campaign reform, term limits, and all these other things...but how does that come about when the people who have to pass those laws are the ones those laws would hurt? We can "rah! rah!" and shake our fists all we want. It just isn't happening.

 
I think Hillary or Cruz could both destroy the country.  I pretty much mean that.  I hope every single Democrat who fervently supports Bernie sees how rigged the system is. Oh Bernie, that's cute that you're drumming up support from younger voters, are competing neck and neck with one of the most entrenched political families of the last hundred years...check this out: Super-delegates.  [drops mic]

Clinton is as slimy as Cruz, as two-faced as Trump, as robotic as Rubio, if you ask many black Democrats, blacker than Ben Carson, and as...umm...fuck, I don't really know what a Kasich is, but she's an amplified version of one of his traits too.  I just don't see how anyone can support her. It's impossible to trust anything she says, everyone knows she's a mean shitbag of a person, yet it's "her turn" so all theses Clinton family lapdogs are out to get the drippings. 

We soooo desperately need a viable third party candidate.

 
And lets not forget the Repubs naturally gear toward the white guy in all of this ....lol  

Hope Ben Carson realized he was Uncle Tom riding the coat tails just for "show"

I would love to see the diplomatic mess we will get ourselves into with Trump at the helm.   Hopefully we will build a wall all around the USA seeing that we will be public enemy #1 with Trump as POTUS

 
TheN8torious said:
Trump just keeps playing the "I'm pissed off with how things have been and it's going to be different with me!!!" card. And the only thing that would be different with him is he'd act like a 3 year old when Congress won't do what he wants. That's honestly the allure of both Trump and Sanders...they both WANT to change so much. But it's not that easy.

American politics is way too big of a machine to just yank to the right or left in a way that anybody would notice a sudden change. My Facebook feed is littered with jokes about the Affordable Care Act all the time, with people failing to realize that it's only in the state its in because Republicans fought it tooth and nail, until it was bastardized into something that wouldn't destroy private health insurance. Oh, I'm sorry...you made Obama and his team go back and change it 12 times before you'd even give it the time of day. No wonder it's not as great as originally planned.

This is just "Yes, We Can!" in 2016. Everybody wants things to get drastically better. But rarely does that happen. I'm all for campaign reform, term limits, and all these other things...but how does that come about when the people who have to pass those laws are the ones those laws would hurt? We can "rah! rah!" and shake our fists all we want. It just isn't happening.
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So you admit the Republicans are a bunch of far*trads who destroyed a possibly great act?

 
I think we are in for a Clinton vs Rubio race in November. Rubio is currently leading the endorsements, I think he will have a strong showing in Nevada when I go Caucus for him tomorrow night.

#Rubio2016
 
Finger_Shocker said:
So you admit the Republicans are a bunch of far*trads who destroyed a possibly great act?
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Not even sure what this comment is or what I need to "admit" to. I voted for Obama twice and I support most liberal policies. Is this you trying to assume my political affiliations simply because I've supported police officers in the past? Sounds kind of like profiling doesn't it?

What I'm saying is the ACA was supposed to be universal healthcare...which it doesn't resemble in the slightest. The way Sanders talks about it makes me inclined to "pull for him", but reality tells me he's just going to run headfirst into the same brick wall that Obama did. And at his age, I can only imagine what that nightmare would do to his health.

 
Donken said:
I think we are in for a Clinton vs Rubio race in November. Rubio is currently leading the endorsements, I think he will have a strong showing in Nevada when I go Caucus for him tomorrow night.
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You could be right. Trump's caucus game in Iowa was exceptionally weak but I assume his team has learned their lesson and will work harder on turnout in Nevada. The issue with endorsements is that, for the anti-establishment types who think the GOP machine has failed them for the last eight years, having cogs from that machine say "Vote for this guy!" isn't especially compelling. Unlike the Democratic side where endorsements are often a mark of gaining super delegates with real sway, on the Republican side it's just people saying "I like this guy".

Today will be very interesting for seeing how the race goes forward. Rubio is running out of time, fast.

 
TheN8torious said:
Not even sure what this comment is or what I need to "admit" to. I voted for Obama twice and I support most liberal policies. Is this you trying to assume my political affiliations simply because I've supported police officers in the past? Sounds kind of like profiling doesn't it?

What I'm saying is the ACA was supposed to be universal healthcare...which it doesn't resemble in the slightest. The way Sanders talks about it makes me inclined to "pull for him", but reality tells me he's just going to run headfirst into the same brick wall that Obama did. And at his age, I can only imagine what that nightmare would do to his health.
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Dont mind him, hes just a partisan hack

 
Well we can all finally admit Trump and the people that support him are the most ugliest side of America.

When people talk about ugly Americans well here is where its coming from.

They call Muslims animals and uncivilized well one need to ask Trump supporters to look themselves in the mirror

 
Finger_Shocker said:
Well we can all finally admit Trump and the people that support him are the most ugliest side of America.

When people talk about ugly Americans well here is where its coming from.

They call Muslims animals and uncivilized well one need to ask Trump supporters to look themselves in the mirror
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Do you ever post anything true or original, or just like to parrot what you hear Rachel Maddow say?

Sincerely curious...

 
TheN8torious said:
Not even sure what this comment is or what I need to "admit" to. I voted for Obama twice and I support most liberal policies. Is this you trying to assume my political affiliations simply because I've supported police officers in the past? Sounds kind of like profiling doesn't it?

What I'm saying is the ACA was supposed to be universal healthcare...which it doesn't resemble in the slightest. The way Sanders talks about it makes me inclined to "pull for him", but reality tells me he's just going to run headfirst into the same brick wall that Obama did. And at his age, I can only imagine what that nightmare would do to his health.
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Obama is a weak weak president. He didn't do enough for the health care law, he should have held marches in the streets calling out the BS republicans on their "death squads" or whatever they called them. Bernie Sanders will actually fight for what is right. He might not win that fight but I rather fight and lose then sit around, cry and still lose.

Donken said:
I think we are in for a Clinton vs Rubio race in November. Rubio is currently leading the endorsements, I think he will have a strong showing in Nevada when I go Caucus for him tomorrow night.

#Rubio2016
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Rubio hasn't won a single state, hasn't even come close to winning. So what he has endorsements, Trump has something more important, it's called delegates.

 
The problem with Rubio's endorsements is that the demographic of voters supporting Trump either don't care if Congressman So-and-So supports Rubio or else actually views it as a liability ("he's part of the system, not like Trump!")

Endorsements only help if you trust and respect the organization -- political party, union, newspaper -- making the endorsement.

 
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I have seen a prediction that has bee correct for the last 50-60 years say that Sanders would be Bush in the general. Predictions mean nothing because if we went by common sense Trump would be losing.

I think the GOP will win just by cheating and keeping democratic voters from voting because of bullshit voting laws.

 
bucyou55 said:
Thanks OP, but I think I'll stick to a statistical model that has only been wrong once in the last 100 years at predicting election winners


https://www.sbstatesman.com/2016/02/23/political-science-professor-forecasts-trump-as-general-election-winner/


Dont let that stop your nonsense, though.
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So, a formula that has been used to measure the success of traditional politicians is being used to measure carnival barker Trump.

I understand the rationale behind the prediction, but you have to take into account the specimen you're analyzing. Trump is too unpredictable to reasonably assume anything.
 
The Green Giant said:
I have seen a prediction that has bee correct for the last 50-60 years say that Sanders would be Bush in the general. Predictions mean nothing because if we went by common sense Trump would be losing.

I think the GOP will win just by cheating and keeping democratic voters from voting because of bullshit voting laws.
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Can you explain to me what is "bullshit" about having to provide a valid ID to be able to vote?

 
bucyou55 said:
Can you explain to me what is "bullshit" about having to provide a valid ID to be able to vote?
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The fact there is about 3 people out of 310 million who are accused of voter fraud every year. Or the fact that the state gets to decide what counts as a valid ID, aka if your skin is black your ID isn't valid.

 
bucyou55 said:
Thanks OP, but I think I'll stick to a statistical model that has only been wrong once in the last 100 years at predicting election winners


https://www.sbstatesman.com/2016/02/23/political-science-professor-forecasts-trump-as-general-election-winner/


Dont let that stop your nonsense, though.
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Your article is after more states have had primaries than my original prediction (almost a month later) but I'm still holding out that the GOP does something sneaky to keep Trump out.
 
I hope they do as well, so Trump decides to run independent.

Meanwhile, Clinton gets the (D) ticket, Sanders sees the (R) vote is going to be split anyway, so figures "What the hey?" and runs independent as well.

Then we get a real 4-party race and the election becomes interesting.
 
UncleBob said:
I hope they do as well, so Trump decides to run independent.

Meanwhile, Clinton gets the (D) ticket, Sanders sees the (R) vote is going to be split anyway, so figures "What the hey?" and runs independent as well.

Then we get a real 4-party race and the election becomes interesting.
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and then Bloomberg enters as an (I) as well, and all hell breaks loose.

Also agreed that the GOP unleashed their scorched earth plan last night during the debate, Donald did look bad, but Rubio is such a twit looking like a little kid giggling that he got some hits in.

 
I like the idea of more candidates being in the general election...but at the same time, if you somehow end up with a razor close race (in terms of popular vote anyway) like 27%, 26%, 24%, 23%, then you end up hearing that good old "73% of the people didn't want you!" complaint.

Basically, no matter what happens...America will suck and more people will hate the president than support him/her.

 
Or we'd have a four man race where no one captured 270 electoral votes and the House picked our next president instead.  Probably not an improvement.

 
Syntax Error said:
Or we'd have a four man race where no one captured 270 electoral votes and the House picked our next president instead. Probably not an improvement.
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It might spark some interesting conversation about reforming the Presidential election process.

That conversation would go no where. But it'd be interesting.
 
All for the good old days where dispute are settled by duels where every candidate is given a gun and last man/woman alive wins.  I do hope they turn their guns on Trump first before going after each other ... LOL

 
Finger_Shocker said:
All for the good old days where dispute are settled by duels where every candidate is given a gun and last man/woman alive wins. I do hope they turn their guns on Trump first before going after each other ... LOL
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We should just let the Supreme Court choose, it worked so well last time.... oh right a 4-4 tie.

 
Syntax Error said:
Or we'd have a four man race where no one captured 270 electoral votes and the House picked our next president instead. Probably not an improvement.
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I'd settle for no one getting enough delegates in the silly GOP primaries and the royal rumble thats sure to ensue at the brokered convention

 
There won't be a brokered convention, Trump will win it all. If not he will just be short and offer Rubio will get a VP slot and give his up. It's the perfect job for him, he likes doing nothing.

 
I would say there is zero percent chance Trump would offer VP to Rubio. I can see him offering it to Kasich or Christie though.

 
bucyou55 said:
I would say there is zero percent chance Trump would offer VP to Rubio. I can see him offering it to Kasich or Christie though.
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If you asked most people a year ago could you see Trump being president people would laugh you out of the room. Never say never.

 
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