Speaking as more of a console than a PC gamer (and therefore someone who tends to watch these BF console bundles), I’ve lost some faith in good sales before the arrival of a new console. It’s not impossible, but it seems to be rarer than you might expect. I could easily see a decent Black Friday Pro bundle going for $250 by the end of 2021–maybe even next year—, but I’m less sure of whether we’ll ever see it new for $200.
That said, as someone who doesn’t care a great deal about graphical fidelity, I’ve been pleased with the PS4 slim I’ve had for the last couple of years. The non-pro performance hit I’ve seen in most games that are significantly impacted by it seems to drop anti-aliasing and resolution (a bit) rather than FPS or significant effects. And the 1TB slim bundle does seem pretty tempting for someone who doesn’t already own a PS4–I assume we’re talking about the one that comes with God of War, Horizon Zero Dawn, and TLoU? I mean, granted, you could probably grab those games for like $30 total over the BF period, so they’re not a huge incentive, but at least the pack-ins have a more universal appeal than some BF bundles I’ve seen in the past.
If you’re in no rush, though, you might consider waiting. Occasionally you find these BF bundles getting priced lower after BF—sometimes even after Christmas—in order to clear stock, and if you really don’t mind playing the long game, I imagine the Pro will be bundled for $250 or less by the end of 2021, and the slim for $150 or less by the same date.