The Canadian Election and why you should care - 2008 edition!

Mike23

Mike23

CAGiversary!
Canada's upcoming federal election also important to the U.S.
Submitted by Chad on Mon, 09/08/2008 - 3:50pm. Analysis
There is a major election in North America this fall that will do a lot to shape the policy coming from the Western Hemisphere. And there's also Barack Obama vs. John McCain.

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper has asked to have Parliament dissolved, the bellwether sign of a new federal election in Canada. The election will be Tuesday, October 14.

At stake will be the direction of leadership on the environment, oil production, terrorism protection, and trade with the United States, all good reasons to pay some attention to the race up North.

Harper, a Conservative, is currently running a minority government, defined as more seats than any other party yet not having a majority of seats.

For those who have been paying attention, Harper has been emulating the current White House occupant, George W. Bush. But there is a history of the Canadian PM blending in well with the U.S. leader, but most of that blending has come from the Liberal Party, which has been in charge of the country the vast majority of the last 40 years.

Stephane Dion is the current Liberal Party leader. The Liberals are running on a platform pushing for a "carbon tax." The Conservatives, who don't support Kyoto, have blasted the tax as being unfair.

The U.S. gets more oil from Canada than any other country. And having a good relationship between the two countries is vital to that exchange.

There are other issues ranging from war resisters and whether Canada will stay in Afghanistan.


Harper has copied Bush on protecting citizens from terrorist attacks, leading to harsh practices, some of which has slowed down trade between the countries due to more obstacles at border crossings. A better understanding between U.S. president and Canadian prime minister can help that go more smoothly.

If Barack Obama wins in November, he will have a much better friend in Dion than Harper, especially in reopening NAFTA. Likewise, if McCain pulls it out, Harper will be his new best buddy.

Regardless of politics, Bush has ignored Canada more than any U.S. president in memory. McCain made more trips to Canada (1) than Bush did in his first term. And U.S.-Canadian relations have suffered as a result.

This is the longest stretch of having minority governments in the country's history. Paul Martin of the Liberal Party previously had a minority government. The Bloc Quebecois in Quebec holds a number of seats in the federal House of Commons - their significant numbers have prevented a majority government. The left-leaning New Democratic Party is the major third party in Canada - unlike the Bloc Quebecois (which only has representatives from Quebec).

In the U.S., there are two major scenarios (no offense to third-party candidates): either Obama or McCain will win. In Canada, the two scenarios become four (again no offense to third-party candidates): Liberal majority, Liberal minority, Conservative majority, Conservative minority. The chances of a Liberal majority are highly slim -- the Liberal Party suffered, especially in Quebec over the long ago sponsorship scandal. The Conservative majority is more realistic, though the Canadian electorate hasn't felt it necessary to trust Harper with a majority.

The election cycle is much smaller in Canada - 37 days. Ironically, the Harper government has been criticized for passing a law setting a fixed election date, and then reversing its stand and calling for a new election. Canadians like to go to the polls around every 5 years, typical in a parliamentary system. This election will be the third since 2004.

There are currently 308 seats in the House. The Conservatives won 124 seats in the last election to 103 for the Liberals.
Click to expand...

I hope the fall of American Conservatism will have coattails in Canada.
 
It's widely speculated that Harper called the election specifically to avoid any potential boost the Liberals could get from Obama.

I look at it this way: we've really got no good options. The NDP are too out-of-touch, the Liberal leadership - not just leader, but leadership - is absolutely hopeless, and Harper... man. His minority situation has forced him to restrain his none-too-popular social conservatism thus far, but a majority would likely change all that.
 
I don't understand the parliamentary system, i mean i understand how it works, i'm just surprised it does. Having that many elections in such a short amount of time seems crazy.

Though being able to just call another election could be nice too.:D
 
In our case, i'm sure there would have been some pissed off people, but more would probably have been happy to have already elected someone else.

Certainlly would have made Dennis Kusinich happy.
 
Eh. Let's just say that this is a rare election where I'd rather be able to pick from the American list of candidates than the Canadian one, as much as it might pain Mike here and my roommate (an arch-conservative if there ever was one) to hear it.
 
So, uh, if all the opposition blocks are against it and they collectively make the majority... why force the issue with yet another election? Where's the compromise from Harper here?
 
Talk about shit hitting the fan - http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Politics/2008/11/28/7569861-cp.html

SR - Harper has never wanted compromise. He's had two goals - destroy the Liberal Party, and get a majority. He's been unsuccessful at both. During the last parliament, he frequently made things confidence motions to ensure their passage at a time when Canadians didn't want an election.

Interesting days ahead.
 
So that's it then with today's news, eh? Looks like Dion has himself a governing majority. With a quick glance from the outside, it looks like Mr. Harper has done a fantastic job of showing himself the door.

Was this an epic fail or what?
 
What they're saying this morning (from a well-known blog)

• Sun Media: “HARPER’S FATE IN DOUBT…As the survival of the Conservative government hangs in the balance, Prime Minister Stephen Harper's leadership could also be on the line. Some Tories are quietly grumbling about the grave political miscalculation that is pushing the government to the brink.”
• John Ivison, National Post: “Stephen Harper is another politician who looks like he's been hit by a train these days. The Prime Minister was barely audible as he replied to Stephane Dion's question in the House of Commons yesterday, asking him whether he still believes he has the confidence of the House. A tired-looking Mr. Harper…stood there, stripped of hubris, drained of energy, sending the message to Conservatives that resistance is futile. It looked as if losing the confidence of the House had affected his own faith in himself…what will be Mr. Harper's fate? The response of my unscientific poll of Conservatives taken on Parliament Hill yesterday was an almost unanimous thumbs down.”
• Rob Granastein, Sun: “WHY IT’S TIME FOR HARPER TO GO…This is Stephen Harper's fault. If he loses power next week, Harper must be replaced as leader of the Conservative party. And even if he survives, his days should be numbered. Really, what the #$%^& was he thinking?"
• Jeff Simpson, Globe and Mail: “His fate depends, it would appear, on the Governor-General's decision to grant prorogation or an election. Otherwise, he will have done a Joe Clark, miscalculating his way out of office.”
• Randy Denley, Ottawa Citizen: “Most of the blame for this mess goes to Stephen Harper. If his government falls, he should resign. He is the architect of the crisis the country now faces. And all of it was so unnecessary. Harper just couldn't resist the chance to slip in a low blow against his opponents and it has backfired spectacularly. If he hasn't the decency to resign as a matter of honour, his party should insist that he go.”
• Winnipeg Free Press: “TORIES OUTRAGED AT HARPER’S POTENTIALLY FATAL FUMBLE…astonished Conservatives are quietly fuming about the tactical lunder they fear could toss them into opposition. And the blame seems to be landing on the prime minister's doorstep. Stunned Conservative MPs are barely concealing their outrage. Many are venting their anger in private because of Stephen Harper's iron grip on the party and the uncertain prospects of a coalition of opposition parties.”
• Don Martin, National Post: “…Stephen Harper may well join Stephane Dion as a former prime minister, the price for boneheadedly browbeating his opponents in dangerous times…Stephen Harper always projected confident, unflappable leadership. That changed yesterday when his sagging shoulders and lack-lustre performance gave him the look of a lost cause trying to come to mental grips with his six-week squandering of the largest minority mandate in Canadian history.”
• Dan Lett, Winnipeg Free Press: “Harper returned to Ottawa and single-handedly toppled himself….Harper stumbled awkwardly into this predicament and since then has shown no capacity to extricate himself from a dilemma that appears to have evolved from political stunt to political checkmate. There are risks here for the opposition leaders, but they are not alone. Canadians are entitled to wonder how Harper would do leading the country through an economic crisis when he couldn't survive a political crisis.”

Harper has done this to himself. I saw a chart about how the G8 countries were stimulating their economy - each nation made such a move within the exception of Canada. The man prizes ideology and political opportunism over pragmatic economic thought and thus reaps such consequences.
 
This is one of those times that parliament systems just amaze me. How cool is it that you can be such a dumbass that you can virtually throw yourself out of office?

If only we had just a taste of that..

Thanks for the post. Great read.
 
On the downside, instability leads to some weird-ass politics. Not to mention that things still all come down to the decision of the Governor General...
 
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