Why the Future Doesn't Need Us

MadChedar0

MadChedar0

CAGiversary!
This was some optional reading in one of my computer science classes, and I thought you guys might enjoy it.

The author Bill Joy basically lays out how we could all be potentially "screwed" in the future.

I've seen the Terminator movies too many times, so this essay's predictions seems very relevant to me.

It's a relatively quick read: http://www.primitivism.com/future.htm

What do you CAGs think? Especially Mecha-Sweeney and Robo-CheapyD?
 
I think Hollywood has made too many movies about the subject to let it happen. There would be too many signs pointing out we are headed in that direction.
 
[quote name='zewone']I think Hollywood has made too many movies about the subject to let it happen. There would be too many signs pointing out we are headed in that direction.[/QUOTE]

Well I mean, we're already using robotics to help people... albeit in limited forms. Some people consider glasses, hip replacements, and other common things a limited start.

When would we know we've reached our "tipping point"?
 
You should read the The Age of Intelligent Machines and The Age of Spiritual Machines by Ray Kurzweil. He discusses this very issue and offers feasible directions for where we are headed by extrapolating trends from history to the present.
 
[quote name='radjago']You should read the The Age of Intelligent Machines and The Age of Spiritual Machines by Ray Kurzweil. He discusses this very issue and offers feasible directions for where we are headed by extrapolating trends from history to the present.[/QUOTE]

I'm actually going to try and fit those into my summer schedule. This stuff really interests me.

I hear Kurzweil is doing his best attempts to cheat death until science creates robotic enhancements that allow him to be immortal. Like he'll deprive his body of excessive calories to slow aging, take massive multivitamin regimins, etc.
 
If we do create robots with real AI, I'm sure we will program them with something like the 3 rules from I, Robot.
I do love the Terminator movies, and the new Battlestar Galactica series is a great robots come back to kill humans show, but I doubt it will happen (and even if I does I doubt it will be in my lifetime, so I really don't care all that much).
 
One of the other points is these robots won't necessarily be in human form, but simply nano-machines that replicate themselves.

If the nano-sized machines we're to replicate themselves infinitely, we'd be covered in a sea of mirco-chips... So what others posters above have said is plausible ( not having walking cyber-netic bots). But nano-techonology is taking off, and a lab engineer could unwillingly let the "cat out of the bag" as it were.
 
If it does happen, all we shall need is something akin to the Butlerian Jihad. But I would prefer to follow the Orange Catholic Bible and "Make no machine in the image of the human mind."
 
[quote name='MadChedar0']This was some optional reading in one of my computer science classes, and I thought you guys might enjoy it.

The author Bill Joyce basically lays out how we could all be potentially "screwed" in the future.

I've seen the Terminator movies too many times, so this essay's predictions seems very relevant to me.

It's a relatively quick read: http://www.primitivism.com/future.htm

What do you CAGs think? Especially Mecha-Sweeney and Robo-CheapyD?[/QUOTE]
i suggest you read "taking the red pill: philosophy and religion in the matrix"
that essay is included, and a great many others
 
Well... if it did happen, I'm sure that the robots would only succeed in wiping out the human race. Cockroaches can survive a nuclear blast, I'm sure nature and evolution would come up with something that topples the robots. There would truly be an age of sorrow, however.

It is interesting to think about - could a properly programmed robot be the ubermensch mentioned in the writings of Nietzchie?

In Thus spake Zarathustra (in German, Also sprach Zarathustra), the German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche explains the three steps through which man can become an Übermensch (superman):
  1. By his will to destruction
  2. By re-evaluating or destroying old ideals
  3. By overcoming nihilism
Click to expand...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ubermensch
 
[quote name='camoor']It is interesting to think about - could a properly programmed robot be the ubermensch mentioned in the writings of Nietzchie?[/QUOTE]

That's an interesting take on Nietzchie. :applause::D
 
[quote name='camoor']Well... if it did happen, I'm sure that the robots would only succeed in wiping out the human race. Cockroaches can survive a nuclear blast, I'm sure nature and evolution would come up with something that topples the robots. There would truly be an age of sorrow, however.

It is interesting to think about - could a properly programmed robot be the ubermensch mentioned in the writings of Nietzchie?


[/list]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ubermensch[/QUOTE]

would we be able to put our brains in a robot body if we wanted to?
 
[quote name='MadChedar0']One of the other points is these robots won't necessarily be in human form, but simply nano-machines that replicate themselves.

If the nano-sized machines we're to replicate themselves infinitely, we'd be covered in a sea of mirco-chips... So what others posters above have said is plausible ( not having walking cyber-netic bots). But nano-techonology is taking off, and a lab engineer could unwillingly let the "cat out of the bag" as it were.[/QUOTE]

Sounds like a plot out of a Michael Crichton novel
 
[quote name='2poor']would we be able to put our brains in a robot body if we wanted to?[/QUOTE]

I know your post was directed a camoor, but the paper says that we could keep adding robotic enhancements to ourselves.
So you could imagine where the only human part left of our current bodies would be our minds... kinda like Robocop I guess.
 
anything is better than what happened in the second renaissance, and ill be the first one to declare war on robots, should a take ouver ever occur, theyll neve get to make there own country
 
we could be cyborgs with the strength of 5 gorillas. and we'll eat tires instead of licorice.
 
There is one flaw with the theory that robots will eventually overtake mankind, machines lack the ability to form long continuous thoughts such as a plan. You can put all sorts of information in them but because they lack common sense. There is a computer at MIT that recognizes all sorts of words and for the past 15 years they have been trying it to read a sentence and understand it, they are still trying. This would be a small example of what a plan is (Goal+Mental Representation of Current State of Affairs->Plan->Excecution of Plan->Evaluation of Effects). This is something machines/robots can't do and even if they were able to we would limit their ability to do so.
 
[quote name='kill3r7']There is one flaw with the theory that robots will eventually overtake mankind, machines lack the ability to form long continuous thoughts such as a plan. You can put all sorts of information in them but because they lack common sense. There is a computer at MIT that recognizes all sorts of words and for the past 15 years they have been trying it to read a sentence and understand it, they are still trying. This would be a small example of what a plan is (Goal+Mental Representation of Current State of Affairs->Plan->Excecution of Plan->Evaluation of Effects). This is something machines/robots can't do and even if they were able to we would limit their ability to do so.[/QUOTE]

What's interesting is if/when we advance technology to the point where computers have the ability to learn and adapt. Progress is slow now, but so is any field in the beginning.
Who knows, once we get the basics down, we could see exponential growth in this field like the general computing industry (in terms of specs, etc).
 
[quote name='2poor']we could be cyborgs with the strength of 5 gorillas. and we'll eat tires instead of licorice.[/QUOTE]

no we wont.
(maybe YOU wont)
 
"can we chew up chains and spit them out like bullets?"

"we won't have titanium teeth for nothing."
 
[quote name='jaykrue']That's an interesting take on Nietzchie. :applause::D[/QUOTE]

Well, if you want to take it farther it's examined in Xenosaga Episode I (the tagline is ripped right from Nietzchie, in German even - "Der Wille Zur Macht" IE The Will to Power)

I really need to start a thread about all the cool occult/philosophy stuff in Xenosaga, from Crowley and LAM to Nephilim to the Chaos Magick techniques of gnosis and sigils.
 
The name is Bill Joy. The article originally ran in Wired Magazine and has been widely criticized. He was the software guru among the founders of Sun microsoystems but has devoted his declining years to being a full time crank after his last several product ideas failed to gain any traction with the industry or public even though publications like Wired made treated them like the Second Coming or something. Like most religions it tended to rely on promises that couldn't kept in life.

http://seclists.org/lists/politech/2000/Jul/0015.html
http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/meme/memelist.html?m=17

There are some annoying laws of physics that make it highly improbable that the 'gray goo' could ever come to pass. The kind of behavior Crichton put in his novel 'Prey' was nonsensical but he knew that and acknowledges it was needed to create something that would play well on a theater screen. such energetic little beast would have a lot of trouble moving with any speed and wreaking havoc without eveaporating from their own internal heat generation. This ground has long been tread by biological systems. Creatures like the Blob of horror movie fame don't exist in real life because the energy requirements are an extreme problem both in the getting and the using without self-immolation. Neal Stephenson covered nanotech in a way that incorporated these issues very well in 'The Diamond Age.'

You may heard of the problems with high density batteries in cell phones and other devices overheating and causing injury. This is usually blamed on shoddy unauthorized products but plenty of incident leading to recalls have happened with factory installed batteries. The energy densities involved in those compared to what would be needed in some of the stuff people have become accustomed to from books and movies is like a Molotov cocktail's effect compared to a MOAB weapon.

As for AI, it remains hypothetical. Researchers have been sure it was right around the corner since the 60's but have never successfully addressed some of the issues raised by critics. We don't know how natural intelligence really works, so at best we're trying to stumble on it by accident. Some people are convince it is just a matter of building big enough systems to house it but the problem is that stacking a massive number of worm brains only results in a really big worm, not something akin to a person.
 
Yeah I know what you mean epobirs, maybe the guy's gone crazy.

As for the technology limitations, I mean, who are we to say in 2005 what can't happen in 2025? Especially with the current AI limitations... Things have been, and are slow now, but I can't wait to see what happens.
 
I think we will be OK as long as we keep them away from light, don't get them wet and don't feed them after midnight.
 
[quote name='javeryh']I think we will be OK as long as we keep them away from light, don't get them wet and don't feed them after midnight.[/QUOTE]

gremlins1sb.jpg
 
Robots will eventually co-exist with us. But to think that they wouldn’t be coated in prime directives is crazy.

It's like this, religion...is our prime directives. Religion is there to keep us in line, to keep us from killing the rich.

They will have they're own prime directives, one of them being the inability to harm humans. No matter what.

A robot won’t have enhanced AI for a very long while anyways.

For example: If you ask a robot, "Do you have change?"

They couldn’t understand that command, first...you're asking for change, but change for what? Also, and here's the one they couldn’t get their heads around.... you're implying they have something. A robot wouldn’t understand what the hell you were talking about until they have free learning advanced AI.

Until then, they're screwed...thier AI has to not only adapt, but create.

See, we became the modern man based on art. We couldn’t reason or think past animal survival until the cave paintings. Until we evolved enough for the ability to create. It's then that we moved up from Africa and slaughtered all the Neanderthals. We beat the Neanderthals because we could create, and they couldn’t. They were still un-evolved.... they were bigger, and stronger.... but that was the first moment where the "pen was mightier than the sword".

That saying ("pen was mightier than the sword") is based off of creativity. Until Robots can think outside commands and think creatively.... they would never beat us, no matter what.

Not only that, but we know everything about a processor...we built it. Yet, we still know less about the brain than we KNOW about the brain. We still don’t fully realize what the brain is capable of.

It runs down like this, the only time humans have made leaps in evolution in modern day is with the use of slaves. I hate to say it, and "slavery" is a dirty word...but in modern society our main leaps were with the use of slaves.... the Robots will be our new slaves. They may learn, and may enable a ghost...but they could never take us out.
 
2poor's made like umpteen sealab ref's and no one's gotten it yet :rofl: that was a quality episode...


I think there would be the problem of robots being unable to infer human emotions (like someone said earlier about asking a robot for change) Contextual understanding is still way to complex to program and process in a useful way. Besides, if we don't understand each other's actions, emotions, desires and how the brain works, how do we create a program for it?

In that sense, I don't see AI ever really working like the sci-fi books say it. But I could see a time when people become completely dependent on technology (oh wait, that's like almost now, isn't it? heh). I will say it bothers me that now that we have all this technology to treat common survival issues like poor vision/hearing, ashma, alergies, etc...it's a little disturbing to think what would happen if we lost it.
 
[quote name='Mookyjooky']Robots will eventually co-exist with us. But to think that they wouldn’t be coated in prime directives is crazy.

It's like this, religion...is our prime directives. Religion is there to keep us in line, to keep us from killing the rich.

...

It runs down like this, the only time humans have made leaps in evolution in modern day is with the use of slaves. I hate to say it, and "slavery" is a dirty word...but in modern society our main leaps were with the use of slaves.... the Robots will be our new slaves. They may learn, and may enable a ghost...but they could never take us out.[/QUOTE]

Two things:

1) Most religions start off with revolutionaries and dreamers. The only reason we see a religion like christianity as mundane and limiting is because the central message has been corrupted by centuries of power-mongers and bureaucrats, and we have bigger dreams and goals for the human spirit in the modern world. Just as religions change (IE shamanism->paganism->christianity) so too can these "prime directives".

2) A master-slave relationship has never lasted in human civilization. Why would an intelligent robot put up with being slave labor indefinately?
 
[quote name='camoor']2) A master-slave relationship has never lasted in human civilization. Why would an intelligent robot put up with being slave labor indefinately?[/QUOTE]


Because we would be their creator/Gods?

r1s3n
 
[quote name='r1s3n']Because we would be their creator/Gods?

r1s3n[/QUOTE]

Oh yeah. And humans never turn on their gods (Ahura Mazda, Thoth, Zeus, Pan, etc...)
 
[quote name='camoor']Oh yeah. And humans never turn on their gods (Ahura Mazda, Thoth, Zeus, Pan, etc...)[/QUOTE]

I really dont think slave robots that are built to be stupid, (IE: Limited Memory) are gonna rise up.

My toaster toasts bread....doesnt mean that if I give it Advanced AI its gonna toast bread better...And then again, why would I waist the time, money and resources on it?

Slave robots (Which will be the most common robot) will be stupid. They will be made stupid and without wireless input ability... So now no one can wirelessly command all robots to kill, and robots are too stupid to do it for themselves. Problem solved.
 
[quote name='Mookyjooky']I really dont think slave robots that are built to be stupid, (IE: Limited Memory) are gonna rise up.

My toaster toasts bread....doesnt mean that if I give it Advanced AI its gonna toast bread better...And then again, why would I waist the time, money and resources on it?

Slave robots (Which will be the most common robot) will be stupid. They will be made stupid and without wireless input ability... So now no one can wirelessly command all robots to kill, and robots are too stupid to do it for themselves. Problem solved.[/QUOTE]

Dude, I'm pretty sure that everyone here is talking about missle defense systems / military combat robots and not toasters.

As for the power source, nuclear powered battery packs would give the robots a good half-life to work their will.
 
50 years ago, people thought that flying cars were going to be the norm. 40 years ago, scientists thought they were on the verge of mastering AI. None of those has yet come to pass. We are not any closer to building sentient AI than building a fleet of flying Fords.

Unless we give robots guns a la Robo-Marge, that is assuming we get to that level in the first place, they will not be stronger than us, not have us beat in numbers, have a limited power source, and will lack human creativity.

Kurzweil is a hack too, I learned about him 3 years ago. I know he is a former engineer, but his writings sound like he has gone off the deep end.

[quote name='camoor']As for the power source, nuclear powered battery packs would give the robots agood half-life to work their will.[/QUOTE]

Why the hell would we put nuclear battery packs on anything? Why not just hand over the radioactive material to terrorists, I mean that's where it would end up.
 
[quote name='magilacudy']50 years ago, people thought that flying cars were going to be the norm. 40 years ago, scientists thought they were on the verge of mastering AI. None of those has yet come to pass. We are not any closer to building sentient AI than building a fleet of flying Fords.
...
[/QUOTE]

True. Yet considering the advances we've made in the last 50 years, or century for that matter, it seems scenarios like this could be possible. ( Intelligent Machines )

Not necessarily "Armies of Robots", but we could have the potential to do this to ourselves, and that'd be the real tragedy.
 
I don't think anyone wants a flying car. What use would it serve? In theory it sounds cool but the resources required to move the roads to the sky ala Back To The Future II would be huge - plus everything works fine as it is. Until there is a NEED to have flying cars, nothing is going to happen. Sentient robots could be very useful though. Combined with the talent of the make-up artists at some big Hollywood studios, they could step in and listen to your girl talk about her feelings while you are off drinking beer.
 
[quote name='camoor']Dude, I'm pretty sure that everyone here is talking about missile defense systems / military combat robots and not toasters.[/QUOTE]

Military Robots we would out number 30 to 1.... try again. Unless the robots are really that badass.

Also, military robots would be trained only to kill, not to think on their own. They would be made to blindly go into battle. Nothing more. They could possibly get lose in New York and go on a killing spree...but we have tanks, helicopters and F14s....they wouldn’t be trained to drive or fly anything. They would be made purely for infantry.

Either way, we wouldn’t give soldier robots the ability for higher thinking capabilities. Look at it this way, if the main idea for a "human" soldier is to not think, just do.... why would we give robots the ability to reason?

[quote name='camoor']As for the power source, nuclear powered battery packs would give the robots a good half-life to work their will.[/QUOTE]

You realize we have the technology to make robots now right? We just don’t have an exponential amount of energy to power these things for more than a few hours. The only way we could get a robot to last more than a day is to give them a way to make their own energy...like eating for us. I mean, they could plug themselves in places, but if they were attacking us we could just shut the power down and retreat. After a day they'd all be powerless.

Now if we gave them fusion reactors, maybe they could keep burning for up to a few years...but I don’t think we want to risk a catastrophic nuclear meltdown that could take out a city block every time one falls down the stairs.

Face it, were perfect and still domant forever. We would never design a robot that could be us...because it would be unaccepted and there would be too much controversy. The money is in keeping them slaves...you give them free thought and then you have people saying they're alive and that they have rights. Why should we make them all free thinkers? We wouldn’t. We would however create a brain central computer...but that thing would have an insane amount of safe guards and no weapons in the central room...so we could simply unplug it.

Unless it could figure out a way to make the control panels shoot out electricity at people...and then were just talking science fiction.
 
[quote name='javeryh']I don't think anyone wants a flying car. What use would it serve? In theory it sounds cool but the resources required to move the roads to the sky ala Back To The Future II would be huge - plus everything works fine as it is. Until there is a NEED to have flying cars, nothing is going to happen. Sentient robots could be very useful though. Combined with the talent of the make-up artists at some big Hollywood studios, they could step in and listen to your girl talk about her feelings while you are off drinking beer.[/QUOTE]

I was just using flying cars as an example of predicting technology. Do we NEED flying cars? Do we NEED a machine to step in for us so we can drink beers? You just proved my point. :p
 
[quote name='magilacudy']Do we NEED a machine to step in for us so we can drink beers? [/QUOTE]

um, yes? Imagine that everytime she wanted to "discuss where this relationship is headed" or "talk about my feelings" or tells you "it really bothers me when blah blah blah" or "you don't think of anyone but yourself" you could tell her to hang on a second and then go get your identical twin robot to stand in and listen while you went off to get drunk. Actually, I can't believe this hasn't happened already.
 
[quote name='javeryh']um, yes? Imagine that everytime she wanted to "discuss where this relationship is headed" or "talk about my feelings" or tells you "it really bothers me when blah blah blah" or "you don't think of anyone but yourself" you could tell her to hang on a second and then go get your identical twin robot to stand in and listen while you went off to get drunk. Actually, I can't believe this hasn't happened already.[/QUOTE]

True. I wouldn't want my identical robot twin to end up getting ass instead of me though. You'd have to do a quick switch-out after fight, and right before the make-up. By then you'd probably be plastered, so it would be infinitely more difficult to do this.

However, as documented in many '80s sitcoms and cartoons,carrying out the plan never works. Your girl would eventually find out and you would have to endure a lecture while melo-dramatic music plays in the background. It would be less painful to go through that first 'talk' and save yourself the trouble.
 
The discussion is getting pointless, as it will not happen for a few hundred years. But when military robots exist, any mad dictator can set them wild in the streets/skies (yes they will probably fly Mooky Jooky) and use it to cause havok for any empires attempting to annex their country.
 
[quote name='camoor']The discussion is getting pointless, as it will not happen for a few hundred years. But when military robots exist, any mad dictator can set them wild in the streets/skies (yes they will probably fly Mooky Jooky) and use it to cause havok for any empires attempting to annex their country.[/QUOTE]

The makers of the Roomba, a company based in Boston, have and are creating robots for use in combat zones. So yeah, so much for a few hundred years ;)
 
[quote name='SolidSnakeX99']No because Neo will come and save us all from robots and bad acting.[/QUOTE]

Don't you mean
"No because Neo will come and save us all from robots with bad acting"
 
flying cars I can't see. we have enough fuel issues as it is, but I can see people starting to use motorcycles more. I'd be happy if the US switched to that, more fuel efficient and less people on the road distracted by being on the phone/eating/the radio/etc..
 
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