Jump to content



Photo
- - - - -

Hurricane Sandy - new weaker storm to hamper recovery possible next week


  • Please log in to reply
188 replies to this topic

#1 Blaster man

Blaster man

Posted 26 October 2012 - 09:33 PM

800 miles wide, the entire thing is projected to have 80mph winds including the eye and not diminishing 400 miles in either direction.

My basement is going to flood.

http://www.washingto...88962_blog.html

Posted at 09:55 AM ET, 10/26/2012 Hurricane Sandy may be unprecedented in East Coast storm history

By Jason Samenow

Posted Image
European model simulation for Hurricane Sandy - on its approach to the mid-Atlantic - with a minimum pressure of 934 mb. (Weatherbell.com) With computer models locked in on the eventuality of a punishing blow for East Coast from Hurricane Sandy (with the latest model runs favoring the northern mid-Atlantic), analyses suggest this storm may be unlike anything the region has ever experienced.
Model simulations have consistently simulated minimum pressures below 950 mb, which would be the lowest on record in many areas.
“MODELS SHOW PRESSURE WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NJ/NY COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS [HURRICANE])”, writes NOAA’s Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC).
Connecticut meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan noted there has only been one tropical storm with the pressure below 960 mb in the last 60 years in the Northeast.
Bob Henson of the University Center for Atmospheric Research adds:
While a couple of hurricane landfalls in Florida have produced pressures in this range, most cities in the Northeast have never reached such values, as is evident in this state-by-state roundup. The region’s lowest pressure on record occurred with the 1938 hurricane at Bellport, Long Island (946 hPa).
In the mid-Atlantic region, here are some record low pressures, which could be blown away - depending on the track of the storm:
Baltimore: 971 mb
Richmond: 966 mb
(Source: extremeweatherguide.com)
NOAA’s HPC cautions that sometimes models lower pressure in these storms too much, and favors Sandy to bottom out near 965 mb on its approach to the East Coast - which would still be in record territory in many areas.
You might ask yourself, aren’t hurricanes supposed to weaken as they head north? Why are these pressures so low? Or as the Weather Channel’s Bryan Norcross put it: “What the hell is going on?”
Norcross’ answer: “This is a beyond-strange situation. It’s unprecedented and bizarre.”
He then offers a hypothesis (which I agree with):
The upper-air steering pattern that is part of the puzzle is not all that unheard of. It happens when the atmosphere gets blocked over the Atlantic and the flow over the U.S. doubles back on itself. Sometimes big winter storms are involved.
The freak part is that a hurricane happens to be in the right place in the world to get sucked into this doubled-back channel of air and pulled inland from the coast.
And the double-freak part is that the upper level wind, instead of weakening the storm and simply absorbing the moisture - which would be annoying enough - is merging with the tropical system to create a monstrous hybrid vortex. A combination of a hurricane and a nor’easter.
A simpler explanation: the clash of the cold blast from the continental U.S. and the massive surge of warm, moist air from Hurricane Sandy will cause the storm to explode and the pressure to crash.
These historic low pressure levels simulated by the model are equivalent to a category 3 or 4 hurricane, which have peak winds over 115 mph. But Sandy’s winds will not be that high, because as it transitions into this hybrid hurricane-nor’easter, its core will unwind. So its peak winds will diminish, but strong winds will be felt over a vast area. Think of a compressed slinky expanding as you let it go.
WJLA meteorologist Ryan Miller notes 66,549,869 people live in the National Hurricane Center’s track zone for Sandy. A large percentage of these people will likely contend with tropical storm force winds - 40-60 mph, if not somewhat greater.
I’ll conclude with this note posted in the blog by AccuWeather senior Vice President Mike Smith:
A very prominent and respected National Weather Service meteorologist wrote on Facebook last night,
I’ve never seen anything like this and I’m at a loss for expletives to describe what this storm could do.

Edited by Blaster man, 02 November 2012 - 12:45 AM.


#2 4thHorseman

4thHorseman

    The New God

  • CAGiversary!

Posted 26 October 2012 - 09:42 PM

To those on the East Coast, stay safe!

#3 detectiveconan16

detectiveconan16

    Look at that deal. It's so great!

  • CAGiversary!

Posted 26 October 2012 - 09:52 PM

Yup, these extreme weather events sure are happening more frequently. Can't blame global warming, cause the science is all hokum those weasels say.

Batsugunner.png


#4 WV Matsui

WV Matsui

Posted 26 October 2012 - 11:20 PM

Flying to Orlando tomorrow morning and then right back into it on my return trip to DC Tuesday!

#5 Dokstarr

Dokstarr

    Tap, Snap or Nap

  • CAGiversary!

Posted 27 October 2012 - 12:21 AM

I work a rotating shift as an engineer so I am working this weekend but off Monday and Tuesday. I'm up in RI so not currently looking like a hit (maybe? I don't follow it that closely when it is far off) but I am glad I am not gonna be at work for it. I was working when that blizzard hit last year and boy did it suck working. Power outages are very bad for the machines and make a huge huge huge mess. Especially when they happen 4 times in a 12 hour period.

#6 ITDEFX

ITDEFX

    Missed out on the Great Walmart glitch of 11/6 due to FLAT TIRE

  • CAGiversary!

Posted 27 October 2012 - 01:19 AM

This is another LOL movement... the media calls it "Frankinstorm" umm ok............

#7 keithp

keithp

    CAGiversary!

  • CAGiversary!

Posted 27 October 2012 - 04:15 AM

This is another LOL movement... the media calls it "Frankinstorm" umm ok............


They're calling it that because there's a chance it will merge with two other storms in the northeast, not because it's so powerful right now. :roll:

#8 Scorch

Scorch

    CAGiversary!

  • CAGiversary!

Posted 27 October 2012 - 04:29 AM

This is another LOL movement... the media calls it "Frankinstorm" umm ok............


:roll:

Educate yourself before making a statement like that.

Edited by Scorch, 27 October 2012 - 01:52 PM.

Posted Image


Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image


#9 tangytangerine

tangytangerine

    CAGiversary!

  • CAGiversary!

Posted 27 October 2012 - 01:14 PM

It's thanks to this that the area I'm in(western ohio) is said to get the first snow of the season on Halloween.

It's also having communities wondering if they should go through with a trick or treat night this year.

Edited by tangytangerine, 28 October 2012 - 06:59 PM.

_____________
Myanimelist

#10 slidecage

slidecage

    Nothing to say

  • CAGiversary!

Posted 27 October 2012 - 01:39 PM

800 miles wide, the entire thing is projected to have 80mph winds including the eye and not diminishing 400 miles in either direction.

My basement is going to flood.

http://www.washingto...88962_blog.html

Posted at 09:55 AM ET, 10/26/2012 Hurricane Sandy may be unprecedented in East Coast storm history

By Jason Samenow

Posted Image
European model simulation for Hurricane Sandy - on its approach to the mid-Atlantic - with a minimum pressure of 934 mb. (Weatherbell.com) With computer models locked in on the eventuality of a punishing blow for East Coast from Hurricane Sandy (with the latest model runs favoring the northern mid-Atlantic), analyses suggest this storm may be unlike anything the region has ever experienced.
Model simulations have consistently simulated minimum pressures below 950 mb, which would be the lowest on record in many areas.
“MODELS SHOW PRESSURE WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NJ/NY COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS [HURRICANE])”, writes NOAA’s Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC).
Connecticut meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan noted there has only been one tropical storm with the pressure below 960 mb in the last 60 years in the Northeast.
Bob Henson of the University Center for Atmospheric Research adds:
While a couple of hurricane landfalls in Florida have produced pressures in this range, most cities in the Northeast have never reached such values, as is evident in this state-by-state roundup. The region’s lowest pressure on record occurred with the 1938 hurricane at Bellport, Long Island (946 hPa).
In the mid-Atlantic region, here are some record low pressures, which could be blown away - depending on the track of the storm:
Baltimore: 971 mb
Richmond: 966 mb
(Source: extremeweatherguide.com)
NOAA’s HPC cautions that sometimes models lower pressure in these storms too much, and favors Sandy to bottom out near 965 mb on its approach to the East Coast - which would still be in record territory in many areas.
You might ask yourself, aren’t hurricanes supposed to weaken as they head north? Why are these pressures so low? Or as the Weather Channel’s Bryan Norcross put it: “What the hell is going on?”
Norcross’ answer: “This is a beyond-strange situation. It’s unprecedented and bizarre.”
He then offers a hypothesis (which I agree with):
The upper-air steering pattern that is part of the puzzle is not all that unheard of. It happens when the atmosphere gets blocked over the Atlantic and the flow over the U.S. doubles back on itself. Sometimes big winter storms are involved.
The freak part is that a hurricane happens to be in the right place in the world to get sucked into this doubled-back channel of air and pulled inland from the coast.
And the double-freak part is that the upper level wind, instead of weakening the storm and simply absorbing the moisture - which would be annoying enough - is merging with the tropical system to create a monstrous hybrid vortex. A combination of a hurricane and a nor’easter.
A simpler explanation: the clash of the cold blast from the continental U.S. and the massive surge of warm, moist air from Hurricane Sandy will cause the storm to explode and the pressure to crash.
These historic low pressure levels simulated by the model are equivalent to a category 3 or 4 hurricane, which have peak winds over 115 mph. But Sandy’s winds will not be that high, because as it transitions into this hybrid hurricane-nor’easter, its core will unwind. So its peak winds will diminish, but strong winds will be felt over a vast area. Think of a compressed slinky expanding as you let it go.
WJLA meteorologist Ryan Miller notes 66,549,869 people live in the National Hurricane Center’s track zone for Sandy. A large percentage of these people will likely contend with tropical storm force winds - 40-60 mph, if not somewhat greater.
I’ll conclude with this note posted in the blog by AccuWeather senior Vice President Mike Smith:
A very prominent and respected National Weather Service meteorologist wrote on Facebook last night,
I’ve never seen anything like this and I’m at a loss for expletives to describe what this storm could do.


the freeze when everyone loses their power.... just think Free ice rink


STAY SAFE
WOOOO I STINK

#11 GBAstar

GBAstar

    CAGiversary!

  • CAGiversary!

Posted 27 October 2012 - 01:44 PM

It's october 27th. If it gets cold enough to freeze it certainly won't stay frozen long; especially where the storm is supposed to hit hardest (Carolina's up).

#12 David Hibiki

David Hibiki

    Well then...

  • CAGiversary!

Posted 27 October 2012 - 02:34 PM

Well still a few days early but in CT the coast is going to get the worst.
Inland only getting around 3 inches over the next few days. The problem is I live near trees and they are saying constant 35mph+ winds with strong gusts. I'm ok with losing power and cleaning up branches (again) but trees falling on houses is a big no-no. I regret not cutting some trees down last year after the Shocktober snow storm.

#13 Dead of Knight

Dead of Knight

Posted 27 October 2012 - 02:39 PM

Doesn't look too bad here in Boston metro... It's definitely good for us that it's curving inwards way south of us.
RIP Hiroshi Yamauchi

This is the greatest thing ever. Certainly in the OTT at least.


#14 blindinglights

blindinglights

Posted 27 October 2012 - 02:52 PM

I haven't checked the tidal charts, but by the looks of the last day or so it looks like we're right around spring tide. It'll be interesting to see how high the water's going to get with a couple inches of rain and a storm surge.
2011 Completed Games
2012 Completed Games



Use Swag Bucks as your search engine, earn $10 to $15 in free Amazon credit per month. Find out how.


#15 JStryke

JStryke

    Angel With A Shotgun

  • CAGiversary!

Posted 27 October 2012 - 03:35 PM

One of the charts I saw looks like it's going to curve towards Pennsylvania. Since I'm off Tuesday and don't go in until Wednesday night, hopefully I can avoid the worst of it there, but I work outside that night and Monday so I'm sure it'll still be a wet one potentially.

That said, it can rain as much as it wants, just as long as we don't lose power. I guess if it does happen though, better it happens this week than the week of the election.

I stream on Twitch. At least two times a week. http://www.twitch.tv/jstryker416

JStryker416.png


#16 Mana Knight

Mana Knight

Posted 27 October 2012 - 03:35 PM

Yikes, I live in Baltimore, MD. Yeah, stores are packed.
Posted Image

#17 Mana Knight

Mana Knight

Posted 27 October 2012 - 03:37 PM

One of the charts I saw looks like it's going to curve towards Pennsylvania. Since I'm off Tuesday and don't go in until Wednesday night, hopefully I can avoid the worst of it there, but I work outside that night and Monday so I'm sure it'll still be a wet one potentially.

That said, it can rain as much as it wants, just as long as we don't lose power. I guess if it does happen though, better it happens this week than the week of the election.


We live kind of close to each other, and I pretty much hope for the same too. Don't want a massive power outage for a while. I live up high on a hill so I'm not flooding.
Posted Image

#18 WV Matsui

WV Matsui

Posted 27 October 2012 - 03:45 PM

Flight from DC to Orlando was a little bumpy but nothing to bad. Now going back to DC on Tuesday may be a different story. That is if I even get to fly back in at all ok Tuesday.

#19 mykevermin

mykevermin

    Queen of Scotland

  • CAGiversary!

Posted 27 October 2012 - 04:08 PM

Filled up gas in my car, bought a bunch of water, two cases of beer, and have plenty of food to last a few days.

Bring that shit. Philly's supposed to get hit pretty bad, but not as much as parts of coastal New Jersey.
Posted Image

#20 mr_burnzz

mr_burnzz

Posted 27 October 2012 - 04:43 PM

They always say it's going to be big and bla bla but it never is for me. I'm in central jersey. Not even worrying about it at all. Hope the rest of you guys aren't going to get too screwed. Be safe, people.

#21 GBAstar

GBAstar

    CAGiversary!

  • CAGiversary!

Posted 27 October 2012 - 04:47 PM

They always say it's going to be big and bla bla but it never is for me. I'm in central jersey. Not even worrying about it at all. Hope the rest of you guys aren't going to get too screwed. Be safe, people.


Yep. Looks like much ado about nothing in Central Maine but then again we were never supposed to get the to worse of it.

Hope the rest of you, especially those on the coast luck out. I can take these storms all day long--it's the January/February ice storms I don't like.

#22 Blaster man

Blaster man

Posted 27 October 2012 - 05:01 PM

Update (BTW, I use the capital weather gang because in past experience they have not hyped shit up and have been fairly accurate)

http://www.washingto....html#pagebreak

Posted at 11:09 AM ET, 10/27/2012 Hurricane Sandy still poised to deliver a historic blow to the northeast U.S.

By Brian McNoldy

Posted Image


At first glance, it would appear that Sandy is not the threat it used to be. It is a minimal hurricane, and looks less organized on satellite. DO NOT BE FOOLED! Sandy is already taking on some extratropical characteristics, and the lack of a traditional tropical appearance (symmetric eye, eyewall, etc) does not mean it’s any less of a risk.
As of 11 a.m., the center is located about 355 miles southeast of Charleston, SC and the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center gives it an intensity of 75 mph, and a pressure of 958 mb, which is considerably lower than last night.
It is possible that Sandy could even completely lose its status as a tropical storm or hurricane, and still be a terrible hybrid/extratropical storm with the same destructive power as a major hurricane. Do not focus on what category it is and make plans based on that. Sandy is still forecast to intensify as it heads north and interacts with energy from the approaching trough and front (through a process called “baroclinic enhancement”).



Posted Image


The current size is really big, and it’s getting bigger. Tropical storm force winds now reach 450 miles out from the center, so at its forward speed of 9 mph, places could begin experiencing tropical storm conditions 45+ hours prior to the arrival of the center. That has serious implications for preparations, because it becomes difficult and dangerous to do outdoor work in tropical storm conditions. Today is the day to wrap up preparations.
A state of emergency has been declared in Virginia, Maryland, D.C., Pennsylvania, New York, Maine, New Jersey and Connecticut. New Jersey has also begun limited coastal evacuations including the southern barrier islands. Delaware is right behind if nothing changes. Additional evacuations and state of emergency issuances are likely today.




The infrastructure (power, roadways, trains, busses, airlines) in these states is preparing for the storm as best they can and preparing customers for the anticipated cancellations in the next few days.
Models continue to agree on a very intense storm coming ashore somewhere between the Delmarva peninsula and Rhode Island (the greatest concentration of models as well as the official NHC forecast are around New Jersey), but locations hundreds of miles away will feel its effects, so don’t focus too much on the exact track.


Posted Image

#23 Blaster man

Blaster man

Posted 27 October 2012 - 05:08 PM

Now for a post on my personal commentary. I was at the store yesterday buying a loaf of bread and a gallon of milk for the kids along with some hot dogs and other shit that we need for the week (even without the storm) plus some foods that don't need to be cooked (though technically hot dogs don't). While there, I saw some woman shopping, she had 2 kids. Her shopping cart was overflowing. She had 4 loaves of bread and 4 gallons of milk. I mean come the Fuck on. She could have bought two of each and been fine. Now someone else isn't going to get bread and milk. WTF is wrong with people? I bet her bread molds before she eats it all. Also, the gas stations are full of people...

#24 blindinglights

blindinglights

Posted 27 October 2012 - 05:18 PM

I mean come the Fuck on. She could have bought two of each and been fine. Now someone else isn't going to get bread and milk. WTF is wrong with people? I bet her bread molds before she eats it all.



You can freeze bread and milk. Frozen milk isn't the best for drinking, but it works fine for cooking.
2011 Completed Games
2012 Completed Games



Use Swag Bucks as your search engine, earn $10 to $15 in free Amazon credit per month. Find out how.


#25 Rosterking

Rosterking

    Look away.

  • CAGiversary!

Posted 27 October 2012 - 06:06 PM

Seems like normal Florida weather. :3
Stay safe everyone.

#26 Blaster man

Blaster man

Posted 27 October 2012 - 07:32 PM

You can freeze bread and milk. Frozen milk isn't the best for drinking, but it works fine for cooking.


Good point. What I was getting at is buying that much before a hurricane will make someone else not have any.

#27 blindinglights

blindinglights

Posted 27 October 2012 - 07:52 PM

Good point. What I was getting at is buying that much before a hurricane will make someone else not have any.



It just doesn't seem like an unusual amount to me, especially if she has more kids and a husband at home. I guess I didn't just immediately assume she was hoarding.
2011 Completed Games
2012 Completed Games



Use Swag Bucks as your search engine, earn $10 to $15 in free Amazon credit per month. Find out how.


#28 Superstar

Superstar

    CAG Superstar!

  • CAGiversary!

Posted 27 October 2012 - 08:18 PM

I am being told this is going to hit West Virginia - but on our Local news websites it doesn't show much. Hm.

#29 WV Matsui

WV Matsui

Posted 27 October 2012 - 09:15 PM

I am being told this is going to hit West Virginia - but on our Local news websites it doesn't show much. Hm.


I don't believe it man

#30 Blaster man

Blaster man

Posted 27 October 2012 - 09:30 PM

I don't believe it man


http://www.washingto....html#pagebreak

Will it snow? Toward the end of the storm on Tuesday, D.C.’s west/northwest suburbs, especially Frederick/Loudoun counties and spots over 1,000 feet, could see some snowflakes, but accumulation isn’t likely. Heavy snow is likely in the mountains of West Virginia and southwest Virginia (and maybe Western Maryland), with some accumulations over a foot combined with wind gusts over 50 mph resulting in power outages.

Posted Image
One model suggests a little wet snow could fall west of town if enough cold air wraps in.



What are the worst- and best-case scenarios? As of now, we are probably looking at either a “very bad” scenario (70% chance) or a “worst-case” scenario (30% chance). See our storm scenario post for a full explanation.





How strong will the winds be and what is the risk of power outages? Right now we think peak winds late Monday into early Tuesday will be around 25-45 mph sustained west of I-95 with gusts to 45-60 mph, and 30-50 mph sustained east of I-95 with gusts to 50-65 mph. In a worst-case scenario, winds could be more like 30-45 mph sustained west of I-95 with gusts to 45-60 mph, and 35-55 mph sustained east of I-95 with gusts to 55-70 mph. Either way, power outages are likely and many could be without power for multiple days.




How much rain will we get? What about flooding? Right now we’re estimating rainfall totals of 3-6” west of I-95 and 4-8” east of I-95, resulting in flooding of low-lying areas and rivers/streams/creeks. In a worst-case scenario, rainfall could be more like 4-7” west of I-95 and 5-10” east of I-95, resulting in more severe flooding. In either case, these are average estimates and locally higher or lower totals are always possible.

Why isn’t Sandy going out to sea?
To put it simply, there’s a traffic jam in the atmosphere. A “blocking” area of high pressure west of Greenland and a big ocean storm to its east are working to prevent a cold front coming from the west from pushing Sandy out to sea.Posted Image


Isn’t the storm not supposed to be a hurricane once it gets here? Technically, yes. The storm is losing its tropical characteristics as it moves north into cooler air. But, it’s expected to strengthen again as an unusual pattern featuring multiple jet streaks (rivers of fast-moving winds high up in the atmosphere) pumps the storm with a new shot of energy.


What will schools and governments (federal and local) do on Monday-Tuesday? Seems likely there will be a lot of closings.


What about coastal flooding? Major coastal flooding is possible for Maryland and Delaware beaches. In the worst-case scenario, severe to historic coastal flooding is possible with 48 hours or more of onshore flow. The combination of a storm surge of 5 feet and astronomically high tides could raise water levels 10 feet above normal.


How does this compare to other historic storms? Many have compared Sandy to the Perfect Storm of 1991, and experts have warned it may be even worse. Generally speaking, though, each storm has its own character and sometimes you just can’t compare until all is said and done.


http://www.nhc.noaa....?large#contents

Posted Image

Edited by Blaster man, 27 October 2012 - 09:41 PM.