Here's the fundamental question that matters very little about your lean left or right, who do you think is going to get past the primaries for the DNC and the GOP?
My opinion? As time progresses, polls continue to show Barack Obama getting stronger and stronger. Will these polls change? I don't know, but I think Obama only has room to grow in the primary whereas Clinton only has points to drop -- as she is far too divisive of an individual, (see akin to George W. Bush, Michael Moore). Divisive candidates can ONLY drop in the polls, rarely gain ground after starting out as the frontrunner. The argument that this doesn't hold true when compared to the 2000 GOP primary is a little pointless as at the time, the divisive candidate was John McCain who alienated certain conservative voters with some of his comments, thus never gaining traction against Bush.
On the GOP side, I see a growing swell of support for Fred Thompson. I think that if he announces his candidacy, Thompson has the capacity to take advantage of this groundswell of support and take on the high level candidates of McCain and Giuliani. Note that Giuliani has lost ground in every poll that Thompson is included and McCain has dropped to 3rd place nationally recently in a poll with Thompson included. I think if he decides to run, Thompson will become the GOP candidate.
What does an Obama v. Thompson race mean to me? It means new blood taking the reigns of the party with the insider supported candidates (Romney, McCain, Giuliani, Clinton) losing their grip on the party and less corrupt, new blood running the show, which I think we need in the US.
My opinion? As time progresses, polls continue to show Barack Obama getting stronger and stronger. Will these polls change? I don't know, but I think Obama only has room to grow in the primary whereas Clinton only has points to drop -- as she is far too divisive of an individual, (see akin to George W. Bush, Michael Moore). Divisive candidates can ONLY drop in the polls, rarely gain ground after starting out as the frontrunner. The argument that this doesn't hold true when compared to the 2000 GOP primary is a little pointless as at the time, the divisive candidate was John McCain who alienated certain conservative voters with some of his comments, thus never gaining traction against Bush.
On the GOP side, I see a growing swell of support for Fred Thompson. I think that if he announces his candidacy, Thompson has the capacity to take advantage of this groundswell of support and take on the high level candidates of McCain and Giuliani. Note that Giuliani has lost ground in every poll that Thompson is included and McCain has dropped to 3rd place nationally recently in a poll with Thompson included. I think if he decides to run, Thompson will become the GOP candidate.
What does an Obama v. Thompson race mean to me? It means new blood taking the reigns of the party with the insider supported candidates (Romney, McCain, Giuliani, Clinton) losing their grip on the party and less corrupt, new blood running the show, which I think we need in the US.
