2012 MLB Discussion

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"Deal in the works to send Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford & Nick Punto to LA Dodgers."

Yes please! Magic Johnson and the new owners are not messing around, Love it!
 
Wow. After I wrote that post above I began wondering if taking Beckett as part of the deal would close it. Crawford and Punto too? That's a metric fuckton of garbage contract to take on for Adrian Gonzalez, especially when Ruddy and another top tier prospect are rumored part of the deal. Wonder how much BOS will put in money wise, if at all.
 
[quote name='Viol8tor']"Deal in the works to send Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford & Nick Punto to LA Dodgers."

Yes please! Magic Johnson and the new owners are not messing around, Love it![/QUOTE]

Wouldn't be so happy if I were a Dodgers fan. Crawford has one of the worst contracts in baseball, 3rd worst after A Rod and Wells. It all depends on how much money Red Sox will kick in. I would rather go after Josh Hamilton and Grienke in the offseason if I were Ned Colletti.
 
As a Giants fan all I can say is wow, that's a lot of bad money and prospects to give up just to get A-Gon and try to make a run this year.
 
[quote name='GhostShark']That sure is a lot to give up to lose to the Reds in the NLDS.[/QUOTE]


Or in the worst case scenario, not even make the playoffs because their team can't mesh at all.
 
[quote name='Viol8tor']"Deal in the works to send Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford & Nick Punto to LA Dodgers."

Yes please! Magic Johnson and the new owners are not messing around, Love it![/QUOTE]

Honestly, if the Dodgers are footing most of the bill, I think the Sox have to do this even if all they get back is a bag of balls. They are so bloated by bad contracts that this is probably the only way they can even begin to crawl out from under it. This doesn't begin to fix all their problems, but it would at least give them the flexibility to begin (whereas now they have basically zilch).
 
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[quote name='HornyPony']Red Sox will only pick up about 10 mill? Holy shit. Ned Coletti is one of the stupidest GMs in the game if this is true.[/QUOTE]

Holy shit indeed. Unloading Beckett, Crawford's contract, getting legit prospects back AND only paying 10 mill? If the price of that is Gonzalez, done and done. I can't believe it's really possible the Dodgers are going to do this without getting more money back, but bless their hearts for bailing the Red Sox out if so.
 
Crazy! Mariners scored 6 in the 9th to take the lead only to lose the game in the bottom of the 9th. :(

At this point I'm hoping they can pass the Angels before the end of the season. Maybe Oakland as well, still have 6 games against them.
 
[quote name='Nate Nanjo']Crazy! Mariners scored 6 in the 9th to take the lead only to lose the game in the bottom of the 9th. :(

At this point I'm hoping they can pass the Angels before the end of the season. Maybe Oakland as well, still have 6 games against them.[/QUOTE]

If that happens I quit watching baseball. Just wait for the Astros to come. Then you can be second to last instead of last.
 
[quote name='kodave']If that happens I quit watching baseball. Just wait for the Astros to come. Then you can be second to last instead of last.[/QUOTE]

For now...
 
[quote name='bvharris']Holy shit indeed. Unloading Beckett, Crawford's contract, getting legit prospects back AND only paying 10 mill? If the price of that is Gonzalez, done and done. I can't believe it's really possible the Dodgers are going to do this without getting more money back, but bless their hearts for bailing the Red Sox out if so.[/QUOTE]


One of the most interesting aspects of this for me is that they haven't even begun to try to lock up Kershaw long term, like what are they going to do in a few years when they have most of their payroll into Crawford, Ethier, Kemp, Han-Ram, Beckett, and A-gon?
 
There obviously in a Win-Now mode, which believe me, Dodger fans have no problem with!.

There upgrading big time at first base from James Loney to Adrian Gonzales. And the batting line up would be Kemp, Gonzales, Ethier, Hanly, geez.. Josh Becket , a big time playoff pitcher, hopefully he can stay sober off the beers and chicken in the dodger club house, get some of his mojo back and be a decent 3rd rotational pitcher behind Kershaw and Billingsley. Obviously Crawford is out until next year, so it remains to be seen what they do with him.

Does this trade come at a high price? Hell yeah! But it's just such a drastic change in ownership after the garbage McCourt era. New ownership obviously gives NO-fuckS in dishing out the cash to turn this into a winning organization. As such a team in L.A and the Dodgers should be.
 
[quote name='bvharris']Holy shit indeed. Unloading Beckett, Crawford's contract, getting legit prospects back AND only paying 10 mill? If the price of that is Gonzalez, done and done. I can't believe it's really possible the Dodgers are going to do this without getting more money back, but bless their hearts for bailing the Red Sox out if so.[/QUOTE]
Only hurdle left is Beckett's physical. Love this deal for the Sox.

Crawford should be serviceable in 2013 and Beckett should be a decent 4th/5th starter for them, an improvement over Blanton but thats all.
 
[quote name='Viol8tor']There obviously in a Win-Now mode, which believe me, Dodger fans have no problem with!.



Does this trade come at a high price? Hell yeah! But it's just such a drastic change in ownership after the garbage McCourt era. New ownership obviously gives NO-fuckS in dishing out the cash to turn this into a winning organization. As such a team in L.A and the Dodgers should be.[/QUOTE]

Problem is that if the Red Sox pull this off and only absorb 5% of the salaries Dodgers will be in deep shit in a couple of years.

Crawford has the 3rd worst contract in baseball. He'll earn about 100 million in the the next 5 year. He's been a combined 0.6 fWAR and 0.4 rWAR the last 2 years.

Gonzalez is declining every year. His 2011 BA AVG was fueled by a .380 BABIP. ISO and HR have decreased every year since he got out of San Diego. Keep in mind that he is hitting in one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball. How will he transition to a pitchers park? 15 HR a year? Earns as much as Crawford and is signed until he is 36.

Becket is the only bright spot. He can easily be a good number 3, even a number 2 starter in the NL West

Cashman should get Ned on the phone ASAP. Maybe he'll take ARod off his hands...
 
[quote name='HornyPony']
Becket is the only bright spot. He can easily be a good number 3, even a number 2 starter in the NL West
[/QUOTE]

He may well be next year. Beckett only pitches well in odd-numbered years for whatever reason. This year he's been almost as big a disaster as he was in 2010.

[quote name='dmaul1114']With no salary cap or luxury tax bad contracts aren't a swig a deal if you've got owners willing to pay huge payrolls.[/QUOTE]

There is one though, and that's why the Red Sox are in the dire situation they're in. Under the new CBA the penalties for exceeding the threshold are brutal, no one but the Yankees can realistically afford them. The Sox are about $3 million short of going over before this deal. They made a series of colossal mistakes signing contracts like this, hopefully this season has been a wake-up call and they turn the page.
 
[quote name='dmaul1114']With no salary cap or luxury tax bad contracts aren't a swig a deal if you've got owners willing to pay huge payrolls.[/QUOTE]

Baseball does have a luxury tax. It's why the yankees and red sox didn't add significant pieces this offseason.

The guy saying Crawford is terrible needs to think about the fact that he has been hurt. He should be solid when hd comes back next season. Much better than beckett who is done unless he can get his velocity up.

Also I still don't understand why dodgers fans act like they didn't go to back to back nlcs' within the past five years. You guys act like you had the worst team in baseball for decades under mccourt.
 
[quote name='CaseyRyback']
The guy saying Crawford is terrible needs to think about the fact that he has been hurt.
[/QUOTE]

He wasn't hurt for stretches last year, and the worth he provided was not even in the same galaxy as what they were paying him. I fully believe Crawford can still be a very valuable player, but he is never going to be worth the money he's owed, even if he makes a full recovery. The money will be much better spent elsewhere.
 
I stand corrected then as I didn't know about the luxury tax. Seems that it's set too high to have much impact though if it's still let teams like the Yankees and Red Sox have such huge payrolls relative to the rest of the league.
 
[quote name='dmaul1114']I stand corrected then as I didn't know about the luxury tax. Seems that it's set too high to have much impact though if it's still let teams like the Yankees and Red Sox have such huge payrolls relative to the rest of the league.[/QUOTE]

Most of the big market teams have been cutting costs since the new CBA was implemented. It's still far from perfect, but it's certainly having more impact than the old system was.
 
Well although it is a shit ton of money, as Stan Kasten put it, "we didn't spend our last two billion to buy the Dodgers." This group has to burn and wants to bring a winner to LA after the last few years of McCourt. And I agree not the brightest trade financially, but DeLaRosa just came off Tommy John. You don't know how good the other pitching prospect will be, Loney is a solid player but no Gonzales. And DeJesus and Sands are decent but not great. And as Chris Rock put it, "they basically just paid Pujols money for Gonzales." If he plays like he did in San Diego, will be good.
 
[quote name='vrs1650']And I agree not the brightest trade financially, but DeLaRosa just came off Tommy John. You don't know how good the other pitching prospect will be, Loney is a solid player but no Gonzales. And DeJesus and Sands are decent but not great. [/QUOTE]

From the Red Sox perspective, getting anyone back in this deal was icing on the cake. If none of those guys ever plays an inning for the Red Sox, they will still be in a better situation than they were having shed all that salary. If any of them perform well in the future, it's obviously a bonus, but this trade was about the money for the Sox, not the prospects.
 
I don't know why people even complain Bout the payroll differences in baseball. It has different title winners all the time.
 
Darren Rovell quoted a source as saying "I have no idea how the Dodgers can afford this unless they are planning on drilling for oil near the stadium"
 
[quote name='ElwoodCuse']Darren Rovell quoted a source as saying "I have no idea how the Dodgers can afford this unless they are planning on drilling for oil near the stadium"[/QUOTE]
The organization that bought the Dodgers believes that the Dodgers are the most valuable sports property on Earth. If you believe that AND you paid $2.15B for them, less than 10% of the total buying price going to up the value just makes good business sense. I can't help but think the Votto thing affected Ned Coletti's thinking here. A top tier 1B at all costs.

We can talk about the relative value of the contract and Adrian's declining ISO, but the reality is the Dodgers arguably just went from the worst 1B in baseball to the best. That's going to be worth probably a win going forward when the marginal value of a win could not possibly be higher. Is the relative value of a win for the Dodgers $50m? One win this year alone right now? I think the answer is actually yes.

The deal could turn out ok for the Dodgers. They need another OF and if Crawford is even half of his old self he's an improvement over the minor leaguers we were marching out there. With Ethier and Kemp consistently on the DL, we can never have enough.

I hate Ned Colletti.
 
[quote name='speedracer']The organization that bought the Dodgers believes that the Dodgers are the most valuable sports property on Earth. If you believe that AND you paid $2.15B for them, less than 10% of the total buying price going to up the value just makes good business sense. I can't help but think the Votto thing affected Ned Coletti's thinking here. A top tier 1B at all costs.

We can talk about the relative value of the contract and Adrian's declining ISO, but the reality is the Dodgers arguably just went from the worst 1B in baseball to the best. That's going to be worth probably a win going forward when the marginal value of a win could not possibly be higher. Is the relative value of a win for the Dodgers $50m? One win this year alone right now? I think the answer is actually yes.

The deal could turn out ok for the Dodgers. They need another OF and if Crawford is even half of his old self he's an improvement over the minor leaguers we were marching out there. With Ethier and Kemp consistently on the DL, we can never have enough.

I hate Ned Colletti.[/QUOTE]


Wouldn't say that Gonzalez is in the top tier of 1B. He's not the same caliber player as Votto, Pujols and Cabrera.
 
With a big assist from Cot's Baseball Contracts, here's an unofficial list of the Dodgers' future payroll commitments. This is guaranteed money (salaries and buyouts) only, so it does not include arbitration-eligible or pre-arbitration players. Those add up as well, especially when the reigning Cy Young Award winner is among them...

2013 ($188.68MM) -- Gonzalez ($21MM), Crawford ($20MM), Matt Kemp ($20MM), Beckett ($15.75MM), Hanley Ramirez ($15.5MM), Andre Ethier ($13.5MM), Ted Lilly ($12MM), Chad Billingsley ($11MM), Clayton Kershaw ($11MM), Manny Ramirez ($8.33MM), Juan Uribe ($7MM), Aaron Harang ($7MM), Chris Capuano ($6MM), Mark Ellis ($5.25MM), Matt Guerrier ($3.75MM), Jerry Hairston Jr. ($3.75MM), Andruw Jones ($3.2MM), Yasel Puig ($2MM), Punto ($1.5MM), Juan Rivera ($500K buyout), Mike MacDougal ($350K buyout), Todd Coffey ($300K buyout)



LOL still paying Manny and Andruw Jones, they also owe Manny $16 million in 2014 and Andruw another 3.2
 
[quote name='HornyPony']Wouldn't say that Gonzalez is in the top tier of 1B. He's not the same caliber player as Votto, Pujols and Cabrera.[/QUOTE]

Sure, he's not ahead of those guys but I'd be hard pressed to think of any others that I'd put above him. Not a lot of guys in the game today that hit for average and power.

So if he's the 4th best offensive first baseman out of 30 teams I'd say that make him top tier.


Anyway, the Dodgers definitely have some bad contracts with still owing Manny and Andruw Jones money etc. But the trade's not bad. Gonzalez is in his prime and the deal expires before he's too old. Beckett is the one most likely to be washed up, but his contract is only through 2014. Crawford is tremendously overpaid, but if he gets healthy and plays like he did in Tampa Bay they will at least get a lot of production for the money.

Hell of a batting line up they have with Ethier, Kemp, Ramirez, Gonzalez etc., even more so next year if Crawford is healthy at the top of the order.
 
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[quote name='DestroVega']LOL still paying Manny and Andruw Jones, they also owe Manny $16 million in 2014 and Andruw another 3.2[/QUOTE]
I think Manny came close to paying off. The metric ass load of crap they sold with his name on it (and the tons of fans excited that Hanley came to town) along with the playoff appearances they probably don't make without him... Andruw Jones can eat a fat one. Fat lazy piece of shit.

I think most of us agree that Crawford is the real pivot part of the deal. If he produces even 3/4 of his Rays production, this trade starts looking REAL good. If not, it'll rightly go down as one of the worst in a long time.

Would you really rather have Pujols and his contract than Gonzalez and his? Not even close. Mr. .283 ain't what he used to be. Votto's had 2 surgeries on the same knee and is only 2 years younger than Gonzalez. Oh, and that's a 12 year contract on Votto. Can't wait to see how valuable he is when you're paying him $25m when he's 40. Cabrera sure. But there's no fuckin way you can point to Votto and Pujols as guys clearly a tier above Adrian Gonzalez. That's crazy talk. Votto might end up that way but it's no sure thing and that's the kind of contract the Dodgers would have to lay out.

So would you rather have Votto until he's eligible for Social Security or would you rather have Beckett for a year, Gonzalez for 5 and losing him at age 36 (which is lovely), and Crawford's who-the-hell-knows upcoming seasons? They're the same amount of money. To me it's easy to say Votto but if his knees go to shit and you're staring down the barrel of his 37-40 years and $100m, it'll get a little more difficult.
 
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If you're starting a team, and had to choose a first baseman, anybody with a functioning brain would choose Joey Votto. Though, he does have a smaller sample size that A-Gon, but the numbers aren't even comparable. Votto works walks (66 for Votto and 31 for Adrian) and doesn't strike out, his OPS, Average, Slugging and WAR (2.6 combined for A-Gon, and 4.7 for Votto).

Another thing you've gotta look at is this; Adrian Gonzalez is declining, and Joey Votto is on the rise (as crazy as that is to believe). So, if there were rankings for 1B, I am sure Votto would be #1, and yes Gonzalez would be in the top 5, no doubt. But Votto has the numbers to make him the best, in my mind at least.

As for the Trade, Boston is clearly the winner of it. They just dumped all their worst contracts (save John Lackey) and are in a rebuilding period now. And they might even make a move to snag Josh Hamilton away from the Rangers, Yankees, and whoever else might have their sights set on him. That, or Nick Swisher, who they might overpay for.
 
[quote name='GhostShark']If you're starting a team, and had to choose a first baseman, anybody with a functioning brain would choose Joey Votto. Though, he does have a smaller sample size that A-Gon, but the numbers aren't even comparable. Votto works walks (66 for Votto and 31 for Adrian) and doesn't strike out, his OPS, Average, Slugging and WAR (2.6 combined for A-Gon, and 4.7 for Votto).

Another thing you've gotta look at is this; Adrian Gonzalez is declining, and Joey Votto is on the rise (as crazy as that is to believe). So, if there were rankings for 1B, I am sure Votto would be #1, and yes Gonzalez would be in the top 5, no doubt. But Votto has the numbers to make him the best, in my mind at least. [/QUOTE]
I agree with everything you're saying but you're leaving out the other issues.

1. You can't divorce the player from the contract. This might not be a huge deal expect for 2.
2. Votto will be an old man with a bum knee 10 years older than it is now and you'll still owe him $75 million more.

Just to recap, Votto tore ligaments in his knee and got it scoped. During a PRACTICE slide while rehabbing he hurt it again and had to have surgery again to have loose cartilage removed. If you see that out of a power guy you've got locked up for 12 more years and you're not worried, you're a crazy person.

Just as the Dodgers would have to be crazy to think they have any idea at all what they're getting in Crawford.
 
Votto had torn cartilage, not a torn ligament, his lowest OBP of his last 4 seasons, .414, is better than AGon's career best season, and his OBP this season is over 100 points better than AGon's.

Votto's a clear step ahead in this one.

Albert started the year terribly, but his OBP is higher than AGon's and his SLG is 60 points higher.

Paul Goldschmidt has outproduced AGon this season, and he's 24 and on the upswing in his career. Freddie Freeman has matched AGon in 2012, and Freeman is 22. Ike Davis has 17 HR since the start of June and he's 25.

Really, AGon's below Votto, Cabrera, Pujols, and Fielder, and he's in the Goldschmidt/Freeman grouping at this point. It's a massive upgrade for the Dodgers, but he's not the best 1B in the game. Dodger Stadium will be the friendliest HR park he's called home, though.
 
[quote name='Feeding the Abscess']Votto had torn cartilage, not a torn ligament, his lowest OBP of his last 4 seasons, .414, is better than AGon's career best season, and his OBP this season is over 100 points better than AGon's.[/quote]
Yea, I was wrong. It was a meniscus tear. Also, Votta has missed 43 games this year. But hey, at least his OBP was high when he played.
Paul Goldschmidt has outproduced AGon this season, and he's 24 and on the upswing in his career. Freddie Freeman has matched AGon in 2012, and Freeman is 22. Ike Davis has 17 HR since the start of June and he's 25.
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So your argument here is what? Small sample size means I can make Ike Davis look better than AGon? If you're a GM offering me AGon for Ike Davis, I'll take that offer dude. And you wouldn't have your job the next day.
Really, AGon's below Votto, Cabrera, Pujols, and Fielder, and he's in the Goldschmidt/Freeman grouping at this point. It's a massive upgrade for the Dodgers, but he's not the best 1B in the game. Dodger Stadium will be the friendliest HR park he's called home, though.
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I guess it depends on the value you put on a guy that's coming off an injury that causes two surgeries and over a month missed. Everyone seems ready to value Votto coming back with no loss of value whatsoever and no continuing threat going forward. To me, that's unequivocally crazy. He plays his way back into that high value, he doesn't get it by virtue of a high SLG during the 80 games he played.

My argument is not that AGon is better. My argument is not that Votto is done or even that he plays at a lower level. My argument is that one of these guys just had surgery twice after an injury and then reinjury during light workouts. The other is having a .300BA down year on a team famously underperforming. Votto is tier 1 and AGon tier 2 if Votto isn't hurt. But he is. And it happened twice on the same knee. And he has a 12 year contract on that knee. Until I see it, I'd say they're both tier 2.
 
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[quote name='speedracer']Yea, I was wrong. It was a meniscus tear. Also, Votta has missed 50 games this year. But hey, at least his OBP was high when he played.

So your argument here is what? Small sample size means I can make Ike Davis look better than AGon? If you're a GM offering me AGon for Ike Davis, I'll take that offer dude. And you wouldn't have your job the next day.

I guess it depends on the value you put on a guy that's coming off an injury that causes two surgeries and over a month missed. Everyone seems ready to value Votto coming back with no loss of value whatsoever and no continuing threat going forward. To me, that's unequivocally crazy. He plays his way back into that high value, he doesn't get it by virtue of a high SLG during the 80 games he played.

My argument is not that AGon is better. My argument is not that Votto is done or even that he plays at a lower level. My argument is that one of these guys just had surgery twice after an injury and then reinjury during light workouts. The other is having a .300BA down year on a team famously underperforming. Votto is tier 1 and AGon tier 2 if Votto isn't hurt. But he is. And it happened twice on the same knee. And he has a 12 year contract on that knee. Until I see it, I'd say they're both tier 2.[/QUOTE]

You said AGon is arguably the best 1B in baseball, it's simply not true, and I provided comps to prove it. Davis matched AGon's 2012 production as a 23 year old in 2010, his performance pre-June is the aberration in his career. I'll take the younger player with a similar batted ball profile and better plate discipline who is under team control for another 3 seasons over the guy with $180 million left on his contract. I'd probably get another major league ready pitcher and minor leaguer or two in return as well, and use the money I saved to sign Greinke while keeping my job.

Just wanted you to know that while you're harping on Votto's knee, AGon had shoulder surgery a couple years ago. For power hitters, shoulder surgery is a much more serious concern than a minor knee injury. See: Giancarlo Stanton

tl;dr AGon's a massive upgrade over Loney (I'd rather have Victorino over Crawford, but whatevs), but your Dodger homerism is clouding your judgment.
 
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[quote name='speedracer']

Would you really rather have Pujols and his contract than Gonzalez and his? Not even close. Mr. .283 ain't what he used to be. Votto's had 2 surgeries on the same knee and is only 2 years younger than Gonzalez. Oh, and that's a 12 year contract on Votto. Can't wait to see how valuable he is when you're paying him $25m when he's 40. Cabrera sure. But there's no fuckin way you can point to Votto and Pujols as guys clearly a tier above Adrian Gonzalez. That's crazy talk. Votto might end up that way but it's no sure thing and that's the kind of contract the Dodgers would have to lay out.

So would you rather have Votto until he's eligible for Social Security or would you rather have Beckett for a year, Gonzalez for 5 and losing him at age 36 (which is lovely), and Crawford's who-the-hell-knows upcoming seasons? They're the same amount of money. To me it's easy to say Votto but if his knees go to shit and you're staring down the barrel of his 37-40 years and $100m, it'll get a little more difficult.[/QUOTE]

At this current point, Carbera, Pujols and Votto are better players than Gonzalez. Look at the stats. It's crazy to say that Gonzo is a better player. It's also kind of crazy to factor contracts into evaluations of players' performance. Sure, down the road Votto may be released at the age of 38. But as of right now he has a 4.8 fWAR in only 86 games. Based on his numbers he is a much better player than Gonzales right now

I'd rather have Votto with his contract over Gonzo/Beckett/Crawford. There is absolutely no proof nor indication that Crawford will ever be the player he was in Tampa. Gonzalez's power has been declining every year since he left the Padres which is very scary as he went from an extremely pitchers park to a hitter's paradise.
 
[quote name='HornyPony']At this current point, Carbera, Pujols and Votto are better players than Gonzalez. Look at the stats. It's crazy to say that Gonzo is a better player. It's also kind of crazy to factor contracts into evaluations of players' performance. Sure, down the road Votto may be released at the age of 38. But as of right now he has a 4.8 fWAR in only 86 games. Based on his numbers he is a much better player than Gonzales right now

I'd rather have Votto with his contract over Gonzo/Beckett/Crawford. There is absolutely no proof nor indication that Crawford will ever be the player he was in Tampa. Gonzalez's power has been declining every year since he left the Padres which is very scary as he went from an extremely pitchers park to a hitter's paradise.[/QUOTE]

In AGon's defense, Fenway isn't much better for lefty HR than PETCO. His shoulder surgery is the cause for decline in power. Playing in Dodger Stadium will help his power a bit, believe it or not. It's slightly above average for left-handed HR.
 
[quote name='Feeding the Abscess']In AGon's defense, Fenway isn't much better for lefty HR than PETCO. His shoulder surgery is the cause for decline in power. Playing in Dodger Stadium will help his power a bit, believe it or not. It's slightly above average for left-handed HR.[/QUOTE]

He's been much better at home than on the road this year. Last year he had better offensive numbers at home as well, but had higher HR (17 to 10) which resulted in a higher SLG. He still benefited from Fenway.
 
[quote name='HornyPony']He's been much better at home than on the road this year. Last year he had better offensive numbers at home as well, but had higher HR (17 to 10) which resulted in a higher SLG. He still benefited from Fenway.[/QUOTE]


You actually have that backwards, he hit 17 HR on the road last season.

EDIT: Got tripped up on your sentence. Most hitters perform better with K/BB rates at home due to familiarity with the batting backdrop (among other factors). AGon didn't last season, but he did have a higher BABIP at home (probably due to the spacious RF and occasional hit off of the Monster).
 
[quote name='speedracer']

So your argument here is what? Small sample size means I can make Ike Davis look better than AGon? If you're a GM offering me AGon for Ike Davis, I'll take that offer dude. And you wouldn't have your job the next day.
[/QUOTE]

Trolling or just stupid?

If someone offers you Ike Davis, a 25 year old solid player who's stats are lower than his actual performance (.247 BABIP this year) who is cost controlled for 4 more years and will improve for a declining 1B who is owed a crapton of money until he is 36, you pull the trigger. Unless of course the 1B is the face of your franchise (which doesnt really apply to Boston, a team which often throws the faces of their franchise under the bus)
 
[quote name='JayRooster']Texas rangers 2012 world series champs. MVP either gonna be Hamilton or Beltre. The doyers won't make it past the NLDS :)[/QUOTE]

I am a die-hard Ranger fan, and I did pick them to win the WS before the season started, but if you're referring the MVP on the regular season, then I have to disagree with you. Hamilton's numbers have declined (though still really good) and Beltre has superb numbers as well, but in comparison to someone like Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera, they'd finish third and beyond. Now granted, this only matters IF the Tigers and Angels make the postseason.
 
[quote name='JayRooster']Texas rangers 2012 world series champs. MVP either gonna be Hamilton or Beltre. The doyers won't make it past the NLDS :)[/QUOTE]

Unless Trout falls of the face of the earth and Hamilton has a monster September, some heads are gonna roll if Josh wins the MVP. I'm not even gonna talk about Beltre. MVP should be awarded to the best player in baseball abd Trout has been much ebtter than Hamilton this year. Hell, if you really view the MVP award as the player's value in their pursuit of a pennant spot, Trout has carried the Angels, team with a below average line up. Hamilton is in a team that is built for a WS run.
 
[quote name='Feeding the Abscess']You said AGon is arguably the best 1B in baseball, it's simply not true, and I provided comps to prove it. Davis matched AGon's 2012 production as a 23 year old in 2010, his performance pre-June is the aberration in his career.[/quote]
The baseline here being that Davis matched AGon's worst year out of the last seven. Oh, and you forgot about Ike's microfracture surgery that took him out of most of 2011.

Do injuries not count or something? Did I miss that class?
I'll take the younger player with a similar batted ball profile and better plate discipline who is under team control for another 3 seasons over the guy with $180 million left on his contract.
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...who has proven himself for exactly 300 total games with a career .252 BA, zero speed, and middling power at best.

Sure guy. I mean yea. The peripherals look good .. I guess?
I'd probably get another major league ready pitcher and minor leaguer or two in return as well, and use the money I saved to sign Greinke while keeping my job.
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Assuming the Dodgers' opportunity cost is not signing Greinke, which at this point looks 100% incorrect. When there's no end to the money, there's no opportunity cost at all.
Just wanted you to know that while you're harping on Votto's knee, AGon had shoulder surgery a couple years ago. For power hitters, shoulder surgery is a much more serious concern than a minor knee injury. See: Giancarlo Stanton
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Well, Stanton settles it.

I have no idea why this seems so controversial, my position on Votto. Maybe because it's swung so far the other way that now you can't have a debate with a stats guy on something that can't be statistically quantified by fangraphs and therefore doesn't exist?
tl;dr AGon's a massive upgrade over Loney (I'd rather have Victorino over Crawford, but whatevs), but your Dodger homerism is clouding your judgment.
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Saying that Votto needs to come back and prove he's still top tier without getting hurt is total homerism. Suggesting he and AGon are in the same tier UNTIL he proves it is total homerism. But comp-ing Ike Davis and AGon isn't over the top?
[quote name='HornyPony']Trolling or just stupid? [/quote]
Be a bigger douche because we disagree.

If someone offers you Ike Davis, a 25 year old solid player who's stats are lower than his actual performance (.247 BABIP this year) who is cost controlled for 4 more years and will improve for a declining 1B who is owed a crapton of money until he is 36, you pull the trigger. Unless of course the 1B is the face of your franchise (which doesnt really apply to Boston, a team which often throws the faces of their franchise under the bus)
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Unless money means nothing to you. Then that whole line of thinking means nothing.

Also, yea. Ike Davis. The king of cherry picked stats to make a point. How's his WAR this year? Ah, there you go being unfair again speedracer. How's his oWAR and dWAR? OPS+? SLG? RAR?

None of that matters tho cause lol babip. your argument is invalid speedracer. 2nd half better than 1st = hall of fame

Somewhat humorously, Davis through 24 projects most similarly to Brad Fullmer, Wally Joyner.. and Adrian Gonzalez. Fullmer was a career .279 hitter with middling power and no speed. Joyner was the definition of "I mean sure, he's pretty good I guess"... and then there's AGon. So if we're worshiping at the alter of stats, his ceiling appears to be AGon.

Ceiling. I rest my case.
 
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[quote name='speedracer']

Unless money means nothing to you. Then that whole line of thinking means nothing.
[/QUOTE]

This is isn't MLB 2K12 when you can make your payroll unlimited. Gonzalez is a very good 1B but has been declining ever since he left San Diego. He is owed a crapton of money until he is 36. Davis is a 25 year old who is cost controlled for the next 4 years. I can only think of 5 or so hitters who are better than Davis and are 25 years old. And by the way...

Davis on the road this year
.261 .328 .569 with 17 HR

His BABIP has been in the mid 300 consistently while he was in the minors and its in the low 200s this year. Take him out of Citi field and watch him flourish
 
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