Academics predict Bush Victory

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Academics predict Bush Victory
Political scientists, using scientific formulae, have predicted a Bush victory in the 2004 elections, with him garnering 53-58 percent of the votes. They believe the reason for that is the current economical growth the US is witnessing.
The models used focus on economical factors and political ones. They also claim that day-to-day campaign are not as important in the long run. The models also assume that both candidates run a fairly decent campaign.
These predictions have been surprisingly accurate during past presidential campaigns. They lost credibility, however, after predicting a Gore victory in 2000.

Edit: www.shortnews.com
 
Quite honestly, many studies have Bush winning the election. He's a wartime president, he's riding a rising economy and Kerry just doesn't have much of a platform. I realize I'm a Bush supporter, but even looking at it objectively, Kerry just doesn't have a great chance.
 
You're going to see Kerry get burried in a landslide. I've been saying 42 states for months and months now. I'm probably high. However since Kerry's behind by 5 points in Pennsylvania, up to 8 points in Florida which are both huge electoral states you can pretty much write Kerry off.

It doesn't matter what the nationwide popular vote is. It doesn't matter what these nationwide polls say. What matters is polls in battleground states and Bush has leads in states with more electoral votes.

Count on it bubba.
 
[quote name='PittsburghAfterDark']You're going to see Kerry get burried in a landslide. I've been saying 42 states for months and months now. I'm probably high. However since Kerry's behind by 5 points in Pennsylvania, up to 8 points in Florida which are both huge electoral states you can pretty much write Kerry off.

It doesn't matter what the nationwide popular vote is. It doesn't matter what these nationwide polls say. What matters is polls in battleground states and Bush has leads in states with more electoral votes.

Count on it bubba.[/quote]

Yes, but Democrats usually carry California, and often New York.. you can't discount those two powerhouses.
 
[quote name='Cornfedwb'][quote name='PittsburghAfterDark']You're going to see Kerry get burried in a landslide. I've been saying 42 states for months and months now. I'm probably high. However since Kerry's behind by 5 points in Pennsylvania, up to 8 points in Florida which are both huge electoral states you can pretty much write Kerry off.

It doesn't matter what the nationwide popular vote is. It doesn't matter what these nationwide polls say. What matters is polls in battleground states and Bush has leads in states with more electoral votes.

Count on it bubba.[/quote]

Yes, but Democrats usually carry California, and often New York.. you can't discount those two powerhouses.[/quote]

New York and Hillary. Man, I hope that bitch nevers runs for president. That is a scary thought.
 
If Bush is reelected it would be the single most disguting thing this country ever did. Not that Kerry is a great candidate, but how on earth could such a corrupt, decadent president who reigned over an unnessecary war killing thousands of American citizens needlessly and who alienated most of our allies get re-elected? Seriously, democracy exists in order to prevent peoplle like Bush from keeping power if they somehow manage to get it. This is why party politics is detructive towards democracy. Republicans largely ignore the gross problems with this president because they naturally want their party to saty in power. I honetly know republicans who, when I confront them with some of the atrocious practices of this president, either claim they are lies, or even worse, say they don't care about that. Don't care?? Isn't it essential for citizens in a democracy to keep themselves well informed of what is going on and make intelligent decisions based on this information and NOT decisions based on what party presidents belong to? In all seriousness, if Bush wins this election I'm going to move to a different country and apply for citizenship there (I have the means to and no family to consider) because I will be embarrassed and disgusted to be considered a citizen of a country that feels it can ignore gross scandals and practices.
 
[quote name='coolcato']If Bush is reelected it would be the single most disguting thing this country ever did. Not that Kerry is a great candidate, but how on earth could such a corrupt, decadent president who reigned over an unnessecary war killing thousands of American citizens needlessly and who alienated most of our allies get re-elected? Seriously, democracy exists in order to prevent peoplle like Bush from keeping power if they somehow manage to get it. This is why party politics is detructive towards democracy. Republicans largely ignore the gross problems with this president because they naturally want their party to saty in power. I honetly know republicans who, when I confront them with some of the atrocious practices of this president, either claim they are lies, or even worse, say they don't care about that. Don't care?? Isn't it essential for citizens in a democracy to keep themselves well informed of what is going on and make intelligent decisions based on this information and NOT decisions based on what party presidents belong to? In all seriousness, if Bush wins this election I'm going to move to a different country and apply for citizenship there (I have the means to and no family to consider) because I will be embarrassed and disgusted to be considered a citizen of a country that feels it can ignore gross scandals and practices.[/quote]

My god, don't turn this into the other threads. And stop being an immature ass that says they'll move to another country, I remember saying that about Dukakis.. when I was 12.
 
[quote name='coolcato']If Bush is reelected it would be the single most disguting thing this country ever did. Not that Kerry is a great candidate, but how on earth could such a corrupt, decadent president who reigned over an unnessecary war killing thousands of American citizens needlessly and who alienated most of our allies get re-elected? Seriously, democracy exists in order to prevent peoplle like Bush from keeping power if they somehow manage to get it. This is why party politics is detructive towards democracy. Republicans largely ignore the gross problems with this president because they naturally want their party to saty in power. I honetly know republicans who, when I confront them with some of the atrocious practices of this president, either claim they are lies, or even worse, say they don't care about that. Don't care?? Isn't it essential for citizens in a democracy to keep themselves well informed of what is going on and make intelligent decisions based on this information and NOT decisions based on what party presidents belong to? In all seriousness, if Bush wins this election I'm going to move to a different country and apply for citizenship there (I have the means to and no family to consider) because I will be embarrassed and disgusted to be considered a citizen of a country that feels it can ignore gross scandals and practices.[/quote]

Then move. You honestly think other countries have no problems? ha ha ha moron.
 
[quote name='Cornfedwb'][quote name='coolcato'] but if Bush wins this election I'm going to move to a different country and apply for citizenship there (I have the means to and no family to consider) because I will be embarrassed and disgusted to be considered a citizen of a country that feels it can ignore gross scandals and practices.[/quote]

And stop being an immature ass that says they'll move to another country, I remember saying that about Dukakis.. when I was 12.[/quote]

LOL my thoughts exactly.
 
[quote name='coolcato'] but how on earth could such a corrupt, decadent president who reigned over an unnessecary war[/quote]

It worked for Clinton. Kosovo?

[quote name='coolcato'] In all seriousness, if Bush wins this election I'm going to move to a different country and apply for citizenship there (I have the means to and no family to consider) because I will be embarrassed and disgusted to be considered a citizen of a country that feels it can ignore gross scandals and practices.[/quote]

I really want to see you live up to this. I'm tired of hearing all these people whine and say they were going to leave if he was elected (That idiot Alec Baldwin and his bimbo wife Kim Basinger) and now if he is elected. If you can't put up with a president for 4 years then you should go to another country. While your at it you may as well pick the right one with a lifetime dictator that way you always know who is in charge.[/quote]
 
Really coolcato. . . You've got some serious problems. One of two things is true. You are either a nutcase or a liar. If you honestly believe that the US sucks enough for you to leave, you are crazy. If not, then you are a liar.

First be honest with yourself, then be honest with us.

[quote name='Cornfedwb'][quote name='coolcato']If Bush is reelected it would be the single most disguting thing this country ever did. Not that Kerry is a great candidate, but how on earth could such a corrupt, decadent president who reigned over an unnessecary war killing thousands of American citizens needlessly and who alienated most of our allies get re-elected? Seriously, democracy exists in order to prevent peoplle like Bush from keeping power if they somehow manage to get it. This is why party politics is detructive towards democracy. Republicans largely ignore the gross problems with this president because they naturally want their party to saty in power. I honetly know republicans who, when I confront them with some of the atrocious practices of this president, either claim they are lies, or even worse, say they don't care about that. Don't care?? Isn't it essential for citizens in a democracy to keep themselves well informed of what is going on and make intelligent decisions based on this information and NOT decisions based on what party presidents belong to? In all seriousness, if Bush wins this election I'm going to move to a different country and apply for citizenship there (I have the means to and no family to consider) because I will be embarrassed and disgusted to be considered a citizen of a country that feels it can ignore gross scandals and practices.[/quote]

My god, don't turn this into the other threads. And stop being an immature ass that says they'll move to another country, I remember saying that about Dukakis.. when I was 12.[/quote]
 
I think bush will either win big or lose big. I don't see it being a close race. This isn't 2000, people know what bush is about and if they don't like it then they will give kerry a shot at being president.
 
[quote name='BigNick']What a good year it will be!

Academics predict Bush Victory
Political scientists, using scientific formulae, have predicted a Bush victory in the 2004 elections, with him garnering 53-58 percent of the votes. They believe the reason for that is the current economical growth the US is witnessing.
The models used focus on economical factors and political ones. They also claim that day-to-day campaign are not as important in the long run. The models also assume that both candidates run a fairly decent campaign.
These predictions have been surprisingly accurate during past presidential campaigns. They lost credibility, however, after predicting a Gore victory in 2000.

Edit: www.shortnews.com[/quote]

Why would they lose crediablity? Gore DID win the election. Yes Jeb did give Florida to GW... but Gore did win the majority of americans voted for Gore.
 
[quote name='coolcato']president who reigned over an unnessecary war killing thousands of American citizens needlessly [/quote]

I watch the news constantly and I don't remember this happening... I don't remember thousands of American citizens dying except on 9/11...
 
If Bush is re-elected, then, I seriously dont know what Im going to do. I know Im 15, and I shouldnt care much, but he'll be president when I turn an adult legally, and that thought scares me. :?
 
[quote name='Acrylic']If Bush is re-elected, then, I seriously dont know what Im going to do. I know Im 15, and I shouldnt care much, but he'll be president when I turn an adult legally, and that thought scares me. :?[/quote]

What do you mean you dont know what you will do, you are 15. What hasd bush done that affects you or will affect you in 3 years?
 
[quote name='BigNick'][quote name='Acrylic']If Bush is re-elected, then, I seriously dont know what Im going to do. I know Im 15, and I shouldnt care much, but he'll be president when I turn an adult legally, and that thought scares me. :?[/quote]

What do you mean you dont know what you will do, you are 15. What hasd bush done that affects you or will affect you in 3 years?[/quote]

Well, lets say the Iraq war lasts more than 3 years, that could mean the draft, and if so, I could get drafted.
 
Just imagine how much better off the tone of political debate in this country would be if all the people that said they'd leave if "INSERT CANDIDATE HERE" was elected actually left. Last I checked Alec Baldwin had a U.S. address. Michael Moore goes around the world and tells the foreign press we're the dumbest people on the face of the Earth. Hey, say what you want but don't cry when your credibility is shot to hell, you have no commercial value/appeal and say it's all due to American's being untolerant of free speech.

You have the right to free speech. You also have accept the commercial results of that speech if it's unpopular.
 
[quote name='Acrylic']If Bush is re-elected, then, I seriously dont know what Im going to do. I know Im 15, and I shouldnt care much, but he'll be president when I turn an adult legally, and that thought scares me. :?[/quote]

Better be ready to be DRAFTED!!!! A couple more wars and we will be out of volunteers. Hell we are already calling up the retirees!
 
[quote name='Acrylic'][quote name='BigNick'][quote name='Acrylic']If Bush is re-elected, then, I seriously dont know what Im going to do. I know Im 15, and I shouldnt care much, but he'll be president when I turn an adult legally, and that thought scares me. :?[/quote]

What do you mean you dont know what you will do, you are 15. What hasd bush done that affects you or will affect you in 3 years?[/quote]

Well, lets say the Iraq war lasts more than 3 years, that could mean the draft, and if so, I could get drafted.[/quote]
weak. I doubt the draft will ever be back.
 
[quote name='RedvsBlue']
I'm tired of hearing all these people whine and say they were going to leave if he was elected (That idiot Alec Baldwin and his bimbo wife Kim Basinger) [/quote]

Actualy, that was a misquote taken way out of context about something Alec Baldwin said YEARS before Bush ran. Now, I wish Baldwin would leave the planet and spare us from his terrible acting (SNL excluded) - But the point is he never said he would leave if Bush won.

As far as the prediction that Bush will win - analysis is bs - we have a looong summer ahead of us, many things can happen. My only hope for this election is that EVERYBODY puts there money were thier mouth is and votes. If you don't like Bush, vote for someone else to make sure that the prediction is wrong. If you like Bush vote for him and make the prediction right. Either way the important thing is to vote.

BTW fuck Bush, I want America back...
 
[quote name='BigNick'][quote name='Acrylic'][quote name='BigNick'][quote name='Acrylic']If Bush is re-elected, then, I seriously dont know what Im going to do. I know Im 15, and I shouldnt care much, but he'll be president when I turn an adult legally, and that thought scares me. :?[/quote]

What do you mean you dont know what you will do, you are 15. What hasd bush done that affects you or will affect you in 3 years?[/quote]

Well, lets say the Iraq war lasts more than 3 years, that could mean the draft, and if so, I could get drafted.[/quote]
weak. I doubt the draft will ever be back.[/quote]

Oh it will. I can feel it calling in the air tonight. Erm, I mean, I can feel it.
 
[quote name='Acrylic'][quote name='BigNick'][quote name='Acrylic'][quote name='BigNick'][quote name='Acrylic']If Bush is re-elected, then, I seriously dont know what Im going to do. I know Im 15, and I shouldnt care much, but he'll be president when I turn an adult legally, and that thought scares me. :?[/quote]

What do you mean you dont know what you will do, you are 15. What hasd bush done that affects you or will affect you in 3 years?[/quote]

Well, lets say the Iraq war lasts more than 3 years, that could mean the draft, and if so, I could get drafted.[/quote]
weak. I doubt the draft will ever be back.[/quote]

Oh it will. I can feel it calling in the air tonight. Erm, I mean, I can feel it.[/quote]

I don't really like to be part of these threads but I couldn't resist... (to my knowledge at least) they didn't get rid of the draft completely, therefore the current... president... can call on it when it's needed, so Acrylic, this may not be comforting, but I feel for you. Let's just pray this war is over before then.
 
I have been saying for awhile that I think that the drubbing the kerry is going to take is going to be worse then the drubbing dukakis took in 88...I live in mass...Kerry is an ahole...he is boring, that is running negative campaigns...give me substance, what are you going to do different..and how will it make america better...and he better watch his behind ...with the divorce papers being unsealed out their in il, or somewhere in the midwest for the repubicain congresmen and that hottie from boston public..if that sets a precendent kerry is a dead duck..as he is a deadbeat dad that his daughter had to take to court to help pay for college...no i have no links for this, my uncle is in charge of the camera work for a boston news station...he is an extreme liberal, but he hates kerry with a passion...and his news stations has been sitting on this story since b4 the kerry weld senate race years ago
 
Erm, I heard somebody new was running for president and had just recently signed up, does anyone know who he is and how he's different from Bush/Kerry (and if he might make a good president). Just curious is all, thanks in advance. :D
 
[quote name='x0thedeadzone0x'][quote name='Acrylic'][quote name='BigNick'][quote name='Acrylic'][quote name='BigNick'][quote name='Acrylic']If Bush is re-elected, then, I seriously dont know what Im going to do. I know Im 15, and I shouldnt care much, but he'll be president when I turn an adult legally, and that thought scares me. :?[/quote]

What do you mean you dont know what you will do, you are 15. What hasd bush done that affects you or will affect you in 3 years?[/quote]

Well, lets say the Iraq war lasts more than 3 years, that could mean the draft, and if so, I could get drafted.[/quote]
weak. I doubt the draft will ever be back.[/quote]

Oh it will. I can feel it calling in the air tonight. Erm, I mean, I can feel it.[/quote]

I don't really like to be part of these threads but I couldn't resist... (to my knowledge at least) they didn't get rid of the draft completely, therefore the current... president... can call on it when it's needed, so Acrylic, this may not be comforting, but I feel for you. Let's just pray this war is over before then.[/quote]

and I'm sure you will be at the fore front for womans rights to be eligable for the draft.
 
[quote name='BigNick'][quote name='x0thedeadzone0x'][quote name='Acrylic'][quote name='BigNick'][quote name='Acrylic'][quote name='BigNick'][quote name='Acrylic']If Bush is re-elected, then, I seriously dont know what Im going to do. I know Im 15, and I shouldnt care much, but he'll be president when I turn an adult legally, and that thought scares me. :?[/quote]

What do you mean you dont know what you will do, you are 15. What hasd bush done that affects you or will affect you in 3 years?[/quote]

Well, lets say the Iraq war lasts more than 3 years, that could mean the draft, and if so, I could get drafted.[/quote]
weak. I doubt the draft will ever be back.[/quote]

Oh it will. I can feel it calling in the air tonight. Erm, I mean, I can feel it.[/quote]

I don't really like to be part of these threads but I couldn't resist... (to my knowledge at least) they didn't get rid of the draft completely, therefore the current... president... can call on it when it's needed, so Acrylic, this may not be comforting, but I feel for you. Let's just pray this war is over before then.[/quote]

and I'm sure you will be at the fore front for womans rights to be eligable for the draft.[/quote]

Oh yeah Bignick, of course. :roll:
 
Current economical growth?!? total bullshit, not around me. I look at the unemployment claims, job statistics, and classifieds every week in this state... Maybe for those Mcdonalds' type of freaking jobs... :roll:
 
[quote name='BigNick']
and I'm sure you will be at the fore front for womans rights to be eligable for the draft.[/quote]

Ya know that's a good point, you NEVER hear about women moving for equal rights when it comes to the Draft
 
[quote name='x0thedeadzone0x'][quote name='BigNick']

and I'm sure you will be at the fore front for womans rights to be eligable for the draft.[/quote]

Oh yeah Bignick, of course. :roll:[/quote]

OK, just make sure you throw in a plug for CAG at your rallies.
 
[quote name='RedvsBlue'][quote name='BigNick']
and I'm sure you will be at the fore front for womans rights to be eligable for the draft.[/quote]

Ya know that's a good point, you NEVER hear about women moving for equal rights when it comes to the Draft[/quote]

They are about selective equality. If its good they want it, if its bad, they dont. I'm sick of it. Same with all the race bullshit.
 
[quote name='Acrylic']So i take it no one realised my intended Phil Collins pun?[/quote]
Sounded familiar but couldn't quite put my finger on it. Thanks for reminding me it's Phil Collins. 8)

But hey, can anyone tell me about the new 'presidential candidate'?
 
I haven't seen/heard anything about a new presidential canidate...the only thing remotley like that is that howard dean is going to debate ralph nader on 7/9 on npr, on why nader should back out of election and support kerry
 
[quote name='Nirvanaguy777']i dont think its going too be such a landslide as some of you may think[/quote]

%53 of the vote isnt a landslide.
 
No matter who wins this years election we all lose. Bush and Kerry are both crappy candidates. The two party system is ruining America. Sure, you can vote for whoever you want, as long as it's one of two guys. But what do I know, I'm only 16 so my opinion doesn't matter for two more years. :|
 
[quote name='Bann']No matter who wins this years election we all lose. Bush and Kerry are both crappy candidates. The two party system is ruining America. Sure, you can vote for whoever you want, as long as it's one of two guys. But what do I know, I'm only 16 so my opinion doesn't matter for two more years. :|[/quote]

This election will be tough to call because we have two potentially bad candidates. Last election gave two horrible candidates, too - I still would have liked to have seen Senator McCain get the Republican nomination back then.
 
[quote name='Acrylic']If Bush is re-elected, then, I seriously dont know what Im going to do. I know Im 15, and I shouldnt care much, but he'll be president when I turn an adult legally, and that thought scares me. :?[/quote]

you know what scares me, uneducated losers who don't know shit about politics having as much a right to vote as those who do spend time to study about poltics and learn who stands for what.

Bann, i'm pretty sure Nader is still running on the independent ticket, not green, he hopes to get more votes by being open, not limited to the green party.

semi-off topic, Hussien is on trial and being an arrogant jack@ss.
 
Credentials are of little concern to the anti-intellectual American voters. “He seems like a nice guy” or “he’s a republican” is enough to garner a vote in this country. Look at the repertoires of the candidates. Do not judge a book by its cover. Above all, vote and vote wisely.
 
Now, while i don't really support Michael Moore and what he did with Farenheit 9/11, i think that he may have really screwed Bush. I think a LOT of people were borderline and that movie pushed them over the edge. I know at least 30-40 people just here where i live that have switched parties over this movie, and unlike most, they are actually going to vote. If such a resounding effect was felt here, i think the same will happen all over the country and i feel Bush will lose because of it.
 
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