Analyst: "I cannot imagine a PlayStation 4"

coolcolt

coolcolt

CAGiversary!
In the months leading up to the launch of the PlayStation 3 and Wii, barely a week went by without one analyst or another issuing proclamations of doom or promises of riches for both Sony and Nintendo. Now that both consoles are on the market, many investment firms' in-house game-industry experts are giving their assessments of the two companies' fortunes.
The prognostication reached a fever pitch today, when Sony Computer Entertainment (SCE) shuffled its executive lineup. Sony Computer Entertainment America (SCEA) president Kaz Hirai took over the position of SCE president Ken Kutaragi, who was promoted to SCE chairman and retained the title of SCE group CEO. Hirai will also be SCE's chief operating officer, and will relocate to Sony's Tokyo headquarters from SCEA's HQ in Foster City, California.
While Sony spun the changes as a "strengthening" of its executive team, many analysts saw it as a vote of no confidence for Kutaragi's stewardship of the PlayStation 3. The high-tech console's blu-ray laser drive has been plagued by component manufacturing woes, which drastically limited supply of the console for its Japanese and North American launches, and delayed its European debut until 2007.
Some analysts went one step further, taking Hirai's succession as a harbinger of doom. No one was more pessimistic than Nomura Securities' Yuta Sakurai, who made the astounding prediction that the PlayStation 3 would be the last console Sony, the current console market-share leader, would ever make.
"The appointment of Hirai could be the start of a shift from hardware to software," said Sakurai. "I cannot now imagine a PlayStation 4." According to the Financial Times, Sakurai's reasoning is that "Hirai’s new global portfolio puts a predominantly software-focused manager in charge of the company." His logic is reportedly that, with the emphasis moving to software, Sony would go the way of Sega, transforming from a console-maker to a mere game publisher.
Critics were quick to point out that, despite its problems, Sony is primarily an electronics manufacturer, and has invested billions in the research and development of the PS3's technology. Despite the hyperbolic tone of Sakurai's comments, SCEA publicity chief Dave Karraker issued a polite response. "Following the launch of the PlayStation 3 just a few weeks ago, and witnessing the huge consumer demand for the product, I think it would be rather short-sighted for anyone to predict there might not be a next generation of PlayStation product," he told GameSpot.
 
Yes, because two bad weeks for Sony is the end of the games division. Doom and gloom. I bet the PS3 doesn't even last the rest of the year. Hell, with all of the money Sony's losing, I wouldn't be surprised if the entire company went under by Monday. Even the most insanely loyal Nintendo or Microsoft fanboy will tell you that Sony is still the champ at the moment, and it'll be a tough fight to dethrone them. Sony won't pull out after the PS3 even if Blu Ray does fail (which along with HD-DVD I hope it does).

This really should say "Analyst: My head is so far up my ass that I can't see daylight".
 
[quote name='furyk']Yes, because two bad weeks for Sony is the end of the games division. Doom and gloom. I bet the PS3 doesn't even last the rest of the year. Hell, with all of the money Sony's losing, I wouldn't be surprised if the entire company went under by Monday. Even the most insanely loyal Nintendo or Microsoft fanboy will tell you that Sony is still the champ at the moment, and it'll be a tough fight to dethrone them. Sony won't pull out after the PS3 even if Blu Ray does fail (which along with HD-DVD I hope it does).

This really should say "Analyst: My head is so far up my ass that I can't see daylight".[/QUOTE]

Actually, they've sold the least number of consoles of the current generation at this point so that makes them last place ;)
 
[quote name='DarkNessBear']Is there a reason why everyone wants Microsoft to rule gaming?

Are you guys fucking idiots?

Im talking to all you fanboys.[/QUOTE]

Who said anything about wanting Microsoft to "rule gaming?" The only reason I'd want Microsoft to rule gaming would be to see your head explode. On a serious note, how would Microsoft ruling gaming be any different than Sony ruling gaming? They're both mega-corporations with $ being the bottom line.
 
[quote name='furyk']even if Blu Ray does fail (which along with HD-DVD I hope it does). .[/quote]
Why would you want superior movie formats to fail?

No HDTV? :(
 
"Sony going the way of Sega"? Bullshit. Sony is a hardware company first and foremost. They would never go software-only. They would go bankrupt and sell off all their developer studios first. These analysts are so stupid, they don't even have a shallow grasp of the situation.
 
[quote name='salmonaxxx']"Sony going the way of Sega"? Bullshit. Sony is a hardware company first and foremost. They would never go software-only. They would go bankrupt and sell off all their developer studios first. These analysts are so stupid, they don't even have a shallow grasp of the situation.[/quote]

...... wow, I really hope that was an attempt to be funny.
 
[quote name='dallow']Why would you want superior movie formats to fail?

No HDTV? :([/QUOTE]

No, I have an HD-TV. I want superior formats to fail so DVD doesn't become the next console race when the market doesn't demand it. I don't want a new format every 7 years with diminishing returns.
 
[quote name='furyk']No, I have an HD-TV. I want superior formats to fail so DVD doesn't become the next console race when the market doesn't demand it. I don't want a new format every 7 years with diminishing returns.[/QUOTE]

That's what you don't understand though, DVD as a format IS outdated, it has been for several years [even though something may be the consumer level technology of the time, doesn't mean that from a technical viewpoint it's not outdated]

I sincerely think that with 1080i/p video formats being the dominant media type, there won't be a "new" technology quite for a while. You have to admit 480p can only go so far, especially when it's not even REAL 480p, it's 480i material being decoded by a scaler.

HD and BD are both natively hd, so there's a big difference, it's not just a hardware trick. If internet users on a gaming message board can't understand the need for new formats, then no wonder every new format fails. How can I expect the average consumer to care any more?

Once you've listened to SACD, DVD AUDIO, HI-MD, you can't go back to regular CD. Hell, I can't go back to regular CD after a few years with regular mini disc. And MP3 just seems lacking and shallow to me [even though I have a decent mp3 player I picked up for a steal earlier this year]

Same thing with HD-DVD and Blu Ray, I haven't had the chance to sit a whole weekend with a player, but 30 minutes in front of Last Samurai at a store then sitting down in front of my HDTV with a GOOD dvd player and Last Samurai on DVD, I can tell the differences right away, even downconverted screen shots of both convey the obvious difference.

Now, after BD and HD, I don't think there's a need for a new format. I can see BD and HD coexisting, they have to, just the way Digital 8 and MiniDV have to coexist, just the way the market keeps making VCR/DVD players, just the way SACD/DVDA players are the norm now, and just like DVD has always supported SVCD, VCD, and PhotoCD.
 
[quote name='sarausagi']That's what you don't understand though, DVD as a format IS outdated, it has been for several years [even though something may be the consumer level technology of the time, doesn't mean that from a technical viewpoint it's not outdated]

I sincerely think that with 1080i/p video formats being the dominant media type, there won't be a "new" technology quite for a while. You have to admit 480p can only go so far, especially when it's not even REAL 480p, it's 480i material being decoded by a scaler.

HD and BD are both natively hd, so there's a big difference, it's not just a hardware trick. If internet users on a gaming message board can't understand the need for new formats, then no wonder every new format fails. How can I expect the average consumer to care any more?

Once you've listened to SACD, DVD AUDIO, HI-MD, you can't go back to regular CD. Hell, I can't go back to regular CD after a few years with regular mini disc. And MP3 just seems lacking and shallow to me [even though I have a decent mp3 player I picked up for a steal earlier this year]

Same thing with HD-DVD and Blu Ray, I haven't had the chance to sit a whole weekend with a player, but 30 minutes in front of Last Samurai at a store then sitting down in front of my HDTV with a GOOD dvd player and Last Samurai on DVD, I can tell the differences right away, even downconverted screen shots of both convey the obvious difference.

Now, after BD and HD, I don't think there's a need for a new format. I can see BD and HD coexisting, they have to, just the way Digital 8 and MiniDV have to coexist, just the way the market keeps making VCR/DVD players, just the way SACD/DVDA players are the norm now, and just like DVD has always supported SVCD, VCD, and PhotoCD.[/QUOTE]

First off, I understand DVD is an outdated format. Not once do I say I think DVD is superior. I just understand that HD-DVD and Blu Ray are losing prospects because an improvement in format has never ever been what this is about. It's a matter of distribution and content delivery. Unlike video games, film has always changed format when the issue is the delivery method, not the format. Unlike DVD over VHS, Blu-Ray/HD seems to be like Laserdisc over VHS. The picture quality is better, but the cost of entry is still relatively high and a laserdisc never made anyone's life more convient. For the person who doesn't care that much about picture quality, the advantages of the two next formats are minimal especially when you consider many people have huge DVD collections compared to VHS collection. Furthermore, the jump from VHS to DVD was huge the same way the jump was from tape to CD. Where did CD go from there? Not to DVD audio but to downloadable content.

I don't like the fact that the industry couldn't come up with a single format (and a single format always wins out in home video, the mess with video cameras are an exception to the rule), and I don't like the fact that the industry is still glued to a disc format when the trend is moving towards digitally delivery. I'm ok with buying a bunch of games on a system with a five year lifespan, but I'm not ok with having to convert and reconvert my collection of obscure films as often to a new format that only offers improved sound and picture quality that often. I'm not saying that DVD is eternal or anything, I'm just saying I'm not backing either horse when I'm disgusted with everything next generation film formats have done.

And if you hadn't noticed, not a whole lot of people listen to DVD-Audio, they download songs off of iTunes. New formats for the mass market are about distribution, not content.
 
[quote name='coolcolt']In the months leading up to the launch of the PlayStation 3 and Wii, barely a week went by without one analyst or another issuing proclamations of doom or promises of riches for both Sony and Nintendo. Now that both consoles are on the market, many investment firms' in-house game-industry experts are giving their assessments of the two companies' fortunes.
The prognostication reached a fever pitch today, when Sony Computer Entertainment (SCE) shuffled its executive lineup. Sony Computer Entertainment America (SCEA) president Kaz Hirai took over the position of SCE president Ken Kutaragi, who was promoted to SCE chairman and retained the title of SCE group CEO. Hirai will also be SCE's chief operating officer, and will relocate to Sony's Tokyo headquarters from SCEA's HQ in Foster City, California.
While Sony spun the changes as a "strengthening" of its executive team, many analysts saw it as a vote of no confidence for Kutaragi's stewardship of the PlayStation 3. The high-tech console's blu-ray laser drive has been plagued by component manufacturing woes, which drastically limited supply of the console for its Japanese and North American launches, and delayed its European debut until 2007.
Some analysts went one step further, taking Hirai's succession as a harbinger of doom. No one was more pessimistic than Nomura Securities' Yuta Sakurai, who made the astounding prediction that the PlayStation 3 would be the last console Sony, the current console market-share leader, would ever make.
"The appointment of Hirai could be the start of a shift from hardware to software," said Sakurai. "I cannot now imagine a PlayStation 4." According to the Financial Times, Sakurai's reasoning is that "Hirai’s new global portfolio puts a predominantly software-focused manager in charge of the company." His logic is reportedly that, with the emphasis moving to software, Sony would go the way of Sega, transforming from a console-maker to a mere game publisher.
Critics were quick to point out that, despite its problems, Sony is primarily an electronics manufacturer, and has invested billions in the research and development of the PS3's technology. Despite the hyperbolic tone of Sakurai's comments, SCEA publicity chief Dave Karraker issued a polite response. "Following the launch of the PlayStation 3 just a few weeks ago, and witnessing the huge consumer demand for the product, I think it would be rather short-sighted for anyone to predict there might not be a next generation of PlayStation product," he told GameSpot.[/quote]

I cannot Imagine the Analyst keeping his job.
 
[quote name='furyk']No, I have an HD-TV. I want superior formats to fail so DVD doesn't become the next console race when the market doesn't demand it. I don't want a new format every 7 years with diminishing returns.[/QUOTE]


Irrational. Anybody remotely paying attention knew that HDTV was on the horizon when DVD launched and that a successor format was certain to appear within a decade. Which is just about how long it has been since the first DVD decks went on sale in late 1996.

It is understood that since HDTV is not yet ubiquitous and that an enhanced DVD format isn't as big a shift as the change from VHS to DVD, that it will take a long time for HDTV content discs to take over the home video market. DVD had a much more rapid adoption rate than the vendors had expected but faced fewer obstacles. Even if one of the HD formats achieves dominance and more rapid tha expected uptake, it will be at least four years before major chains begin selling HD discs exclusively.

This doesn't mean all of your existing DVDs are going to disintegrate overnight if Best Buy starts devoting the bulk of it shelf space to a new format. At worst it just means some content will eventually lack a DVD release. By that point the price of an HDTV content player will be negligable. Since that player will also play DVDs, often with the advantage of upscaling, what is the loss to you? My large collection of PS1 games still plays just fine in my PS2 and should continue being usable in a PS3 if I should choose to buy one.

Where is the dimishing return?

By the time either of the HD formats is looking obsolescent in the face of ultra-HD displays, the distribution market could be radically different. There may not be another major ROM disc standard for content distribution.
 
The quoted analyst really doesn't seem to know the history of Sega and how long it took for them to reach their full decline as a hardware supplier. Nor does it really take into account the essential character differences between Sony and Sega.

Even if Sony did follow the Sega path, that would mean an early death for the PS3 and a PS4 to fill the Dreamcast role. In reality, the worst I expect to happen is that the PS3's lifetime net revenue are considerably less than Sony intended but the hardware still serves as the basis for a successor platform using a later version of the Cell architecture and Blu-ray as the disc format. The successor machine would be less ambitious of an upgrade and have costs more under control from launch.
 
No even if PS3 finishes last and is a failure, Sony has enough bank to develop PS4. But it would be Sony's Dreamcast, their last chance to save the Playstation brand. But we can't say that the PS3 will fail yet, it's too early to tell. I won't get worried about PS3 until you start seeing games like Final Fantasy and Metal Gear jumping ship to 360.
 
[quote name='sarausagi']Once you've listened to SACD, DVD AUDIO, HI-MD, you can't go back to regular CD. Hell, I can't go back to regular CD after a few years with regular mini disc. And MP3 just seems lacking and shallow to me [even though I have a decent mp3 player I picked up for a steal earlier this year]
[/quote]

You do realize that regular CDs are higher quality than mini discs, right? They have the same resolution (sampling rate 44.1 kHz) except that mini discs use a lossy compression technique and CDs are lossless.

MP3s won't sound lacking if you use a higher bit rate or start using variable bit rates, about double whatever compression you'd use on ATRAC3 (minidisc's codec).
 
[quote name='furyk']Yes, because two bad weeks for Sony is the end of the games division. Doom and gloom. I bet the PS3 doesn't even last the rest of the year. Hell, with all of the money Sony's losing, I wouldn't be surprised if the entire company went under by Monday. [/quote]

u tard, as if sony doesn't do anything OTHER than gaming :roll:
 
[quote name='Kaijufan']The only way Sony wouldn't release a PS4 is if they go bankrupt.[/QUOTE]

I agree. I don't want Sony to leave the Home Console game system business. I like 3 people in the game and I like no one to hold a large majority. I don't want Sony to rule and I don't want anyone to. The more companies are fighting for the lead the better things will be for the consumer.

I do have to admit that Sony has the best brand recognition, however financially I think they are in the worse spot. It's all going to come down to Blu-Ray for them financially.
 
[quote name='brendan424']You do realize that regular CDs are higher quality than mini discs, right? They have the same resolution (sampling rate 44.1 kHz) except that mini discs use a lossy compression technique and CDs are lossless.

MP3s won't sound lacking if you use a higher bit rate or start using variable bit rates, about double whatever compression you'd use on ATRAC3 (minidisc's codec).[/QUOTE]

Actually, you can only treat Red Book (CD) audio as lossless if you take it as the baseline for audio quality.

The sample rate and bit resolution of CD audio inherently sacrifices a good deal of quality discernable by humans for the sake of getting a specified duration from what was a reasonable cost of manufacture in 1982. While CDs do a very good job on cheap equipment, this is why high end systems using vinyl LPs can produce better results. More of the original content is there to reproduce.

CD audio is certainly a more effective format for the mainstream in that modest sound systems can make far more detail known to the listener than comparable phonograph based systems of the past but a quarter century later we can do a lot better.

Just going to 18 bit resolution makes a big difference. This brings the range from 0-65,536 up to 0-262,144. The disc capacity usage only increases by 1/8th but the quality difference is far greater. Since DVD is now widespread, 18-bit is aiming low. The DVD-A and SACD standard deliver amazing results but the respective marketers have done a wretched job of informing the public that these options even exist.

The popularity of personal digital players complicate things by making people trade off quality for the number of tracks they can store. As capacity grows to the point that a $80 flash based unit holds 16GB (this is already on Samsung's roadmap for flash chips) the quality level will become a big selling point again.
 
[quote name='sarausagi']That's what you don't understand though, DVD as a format IS outdated, it has been for several years [even though something may be the consumer level technology of the time, doesn't mean that from a technical viewpoint it's not outdated]

I sincerely think that with 1080i/p video formats being the dominant media type, there won't be a "new" technology quite for a while. You have to admit 480p can only go so far, especially when it's not even REAL 480p, it's 480i material being decoded by a scaler.

HD and BD are both natively hd, so there's a big difference, it's not just a hardware trick. If internet users on a gaming message board can't understand the need for new formats, then no wonder every new format fails. How can I expect the average consumer to care any more?

Once you've listened to SACD, DVD AUDIO, HI-MD, you can't go back to regular CD. Hell, I can't go back to regular CD after a few years with regular mini disc. And MP3 just seems lacking and shallow to me [even though I have a decent mp3 player I picked up for a steal earlier this year]

Same thing with HD-DVD and Blu Ray, I haven't had the chance to sit a whole weekend with a player, but 30 minutes in front of Last Samurai at a store then sitting down in front of my HDTV with a GOOD dvd player and Last Samurai on DVD, I can tell the differences right away, even downconverted screen shots of both convey the obvious difference.

Now, after BD and HD, I don't think there's a need for a new format. I can see BD and HD coexisting, they have to, just the way Digital 8 and MiniDV have to coexist, just the way the market keeps making VCR/DVD players, just the way SACD/DVDA players are the norm now, and just like DVD has always supported SVCD, VCD, and PhotoCD.[/QUOTE]

Blue Ray and HD-DVD will not co-exist unless someone creates a player that plays both formats for only $200 or less within 2 years. The average person will not purchase both new DVD players and since they are not releasing the same movie in both formats they are creating a problem for the consumer. This war is WORSE than VHS vs Betamax.
 
I have to agree with Indiana this war "is" worse than VHS vs Betamax. The movie companies shouldnt be taking sides in this format war. It should be up to the better looking format to win and thats simply not the case since I"m sure each movie company is getting significant financial incentive to keep their movies exclusive to one format or the other.
 
[quote name='salmonaxxx']"Sony going the way of Sega"? Bullshit. Sony is a hardware company first and foremost. [/quote]
I agree with this statement.

Sony's muscle is in their hardware division - a prime example would be the sheer power of their consoles, and the eventual size reduction of each system while retaining similar or near performance levels (PSone, PStwo slim.)

Whether or not developers take full advantage of the Sony hardware is up to Sony's development kits and the talent of software studios.
 
[quote name='epobirs']Irrational. Anybody remotely paying attention knew that HDTV was on the horizon when DVD launched and that a successor format was certain to appear within a decade. Which is just about how long it has been since the first DVD decks went on sale in late 1996.

It is understood that since HDTV is not yet ubiquitous and that an enhanced DVD format isn't as big a shift as the change from VHS to DVD, that it will take a long time for HDTV content discs to take over the home video market. DVD had a much more rapid adoption rate than the vendors had expected but faced fewer obstacles. Even if one of the HD formats achieves dominance and more rapid tha expected uptake, it will be at least four years before major chains begin selling HD discs exclusively.

This doesn't mean all of your existing DVDs are going to disintegrate overnight if Best Buy starts devoting the bulk of it shelf space to a new format. At worst it just means some content will eventually lack a DVD release. By that point the price of an HDTV content player will be negligable. Since that player will also play DVDs, often with the advantage of upscaling, what is the loss to you? My large collection of PS1 games still plays just fine in my PS2 and should continue being usable in a PS3 if I should choose to buy one.

Where is the dimishing return?

By the time either of the HD formats is looking obsolescent in the face of ultra-HD displays, the distribution market could be radically different. There may not be another major ROM disc standard for content distribution.[/quote]

Nice post. Even my half-blind grandmother notices the difference between HD-DVD and a regular DVD. It looks even more stunning than DVD does compared to VHS. Once the prices drop it would make sense for the manufacturers to push the high definition disc formats on us (although the "war" is complete bullshit and a total mess). They want to get a 1080p TV in every house and that's going to take a while but I guarantee if you phase out DVDs it will speed up the process.
 
[quote name='furyk']First off, I understand DVD is an outdated format. Not once do I say I think DVD is superior. I just understand that HD-DVD and Blu Ray are losing prospects because an improvement in format has never ever been what this is about. It's a matter of distribution and content delivery. Unlike video games, film has always changed format when the issue is the delivery method, not the format. Unlike DVD over VHS, Blu-Ray/HD seems to be like Laserdisc over VHS. The picture quality is better, but the cost of entry is still relatively high and a laserdisc never made anyone's life more convient. For the person who doesn't care that much about picture quality, the advantages of the two next formats are minimal especially when you consider many people have huge DVD collections compared to VHS collection. Furthermore, the jump from VHS to DVD was huge the same way the jump was from tape to CD. Where did CD go from there? Not to DVD audio but to downloadable content.

I don't like the fact that the industry couldn't come up with a single format (and a single format always wins out in home video, the mess with video cameras are an exception to the rule), and I don't like the fact that the industry is still glued to a disc format when the trend is moving towards digitally delivery. I'm ok with buying a bunch of games on a system with a five year lifespan, but I'm not ok with having to convert and reconvert my collection of obscure films as often to a new format that only offers improved sound and picture quality that often. I'm not saying that DVD is eternal or anything, I'm just saying I'm not backing either horse when I'm disgusted with everything next generation film formats have done.

And if you hadn't noticed, not a whole lot of people listen to DVD-Audio, they download songs off of iTunes. New formats for the mass market are about distribution, not content.[/QUOTE]


as an owner of VHS, LD, DVD, HD-DVD and now Blu-Ray(with my PS3 purchase) I can say that I am a film collector and I never want digital delivery. I simply prefer a physical format.

now I have to ask, have you actually seen HD/BD on a set other than those at Best Buy? I can't speak first hand about Blu-Ray yet but HD-DVD HD is not just a small improvement over DVD.

you mention converting and reconverting your collection over and over. why do you have to do this? its not a law that states "when every new format comes out you must replace all currently owned titles or be punished". I have VHS and LDs that have been released on DVD that I never upgraded.

my next question is when did you get into DVD? back in 1996 DVD was priced basically the way HD-DVD is priced now. in some instances HD-DVD is priced even cheaper today. the only pricing point that HD-DVD is shooting themselves in the foot with is the combo discs. do you remember being able to find a DVD player bavk then with onboard audio decoders as well as the full array of output connections?

the easiest comparison I have in regards to HD/BD is this: why is it ok to upgrade from say a PS2 to a PS3 for better graphics but not ok to do the exact same when it comes to home theater? or in regards to 2 different formats delivering the same thing just see XBox360, PS3 and the Wii. all 3 use the same size disc yet are completely incompatable with each other. no difference here.
 
[quote name='sonnyg80']u tard, as if sony doesn't do anything OTHER than gaming :roll:[/QUOTE]

And his panic response will be "I was being sarcastic too" and the trend of people taking everything said on CAG literally no matter how blatantly and intentionally overblown a statement is continues.

epobirs: See my response to sarausagi. My want of failure HD-DVD/Blu Ray has nothing to do with not believing they are superior formats. The next natural progression in entertainment is away from a physical medium. If Blu Ray/HD-DVD succeeds as rapidly as DVD did, there's no way that movie companies will slow things down. They'll continue to sell us the same thing over and over and over again (phasing out the system like is done with video game software). Five years from now every studio will sell films a'la carte, ten years from now they'll introduce servers with centralized downloads as connection speeds catch up, fifteen they'll sell pre-loaded hard drives with films (to meet the demand of people wanting some sort of physical media) and so on and so forth. That's the worst case scenario that I think would happen if one or both of the new DVD formats succeeds on any significant level.
 
[quote name='chrishicks']as an owner of VHS, LD, DVD, HD-DVD and now Blu-Ray(with my PS3 purchase) I can say that I am a film collector and I never want digital delivery. I simply prefer a physical format. [/quote]

As do I, but I seriously doubt that we'll see physical formats continue for much longer. It's simply cheaper for companies making the film to pay bandwith.

[quote name='chrishicks']now I have to ask, have you actually seen HD/BD on a set other than those at Best Buy? I can't speak first hand about Blu-Ray yet but HD-DVD HD is not just a small improvement over DVD.[/quote]

Yes I have and it looks amazing. The issue of diminishing returns is an issue that we'll see eventually in the next format or the next next format.

[quote name='chrishicks']you mention converting and reconverting your collection over and over. why do you have to do this? its not a law that states "when every new format comes out you must replace all currently owned titles or be punished". I have VHS and LDs that have been released on DVD that I never upgraded.[/quote]

True, it's always a matter of choice. It's also quite easy to buy something that's better looking, has new special features, and amazing audio "upgrades". It's not that I don't want that choice either, it's just that I don't want to buy a bunch of the niche titles that I have again, only for a new, better version to come out within five years. If there's one thing we've seen with DVD, it's that companies love to double dip you to death.

[quote name='chrishicks']my next question is when did you get into DVD? back in 1996 DVD was priced basically the way HD-DVD is priced now. in some instances HD-DVD is priced even cheaper today. the only pricing point that HD-DVD is shooting themselves in the foot with is the combo discs. do you remember being able to find a DVD player bavk then with onboard audio decoders as well as the full array of output connections?[/quote]

I got into DVD in 1999 so I understand how pricey a new format can be. It's not that the cost of the new players concerns me as the cost of a format that will potentially be dead/minimized in five to ten years.

[quote name='chrishicks']the easiest comparison I have in regards to HD/BD is this: why is it ok to upgrade from say a PS2 to a PS3 for better graphics but not ok to do the exact same when it comes to home theater? or in regards to 2 different formats delivering the same thing just see XBox360, PS3 and the Wii. all 3 use the same size disc yet are completely incompatable with each other. no difference here.[/QUOTE]

That's the point chrishicks. It isn't ok that every five years we collectively abandon perfectly good hardware for something better. The video game industry is so fucked up at the moment that I fear the movie industry doing anything remotely like that.

Edit: I'm ok with sitting out for a while to see how all of this plays out. I know DVD isn't going anywhere for a while and I'm actually hoping that a solid media format wins out over digitally distributed content. I'm just concerned that if one of them does win out, the worst case slippery slope scenario happens.
 
[quote name='zionoverfire']...... wow, I really hope that was an attempt to be funny.[/QUOTE]

Anyone who thinks Sony will go third party and rely on Jak and ATV Offroad Fury to pay the bills is fucking terminally retarded.
 
I consider myself to like gadgets and new technology but I am often amazed out how in depth people get when it comes to audio, video, and gaming. Most of the time I just want to watch a movie, play a game, and listen to a song. I don't want to analyse the picture or sound. I mean shit DVD looks a hell of a lot better than watching a snowy picture on a TV with fucking rabbit ears. If the movie is good enough I'll watch it no matter how shitty the picture quality. Sometimes there is also something to be said about watching an old film with all its imperfections...feels I don't know more human somehow.
 
[quote name='jkam']I consider myself to like gadgets and new technology but I am often amazed out how in depth people get when it comes to audio, video, and gaming. Most of the time I just want to watch a movie, play a game, and listen to a song. I don't want to analyse the picture or sound. I mean shit DVD looks a hell of a lot better than watching a snowy picture on a TV with fucking rabbit ears. If the movie is good enough I'll watch it no matter how shitty the picture quality. Sometimes there is also something to be said about watching an old film with all its imperfections...feels I don't know more human somehow.[/QUOTE]

Nah, the low quality just makes it harder to tell they're all hideous reanimated corpses. Being forced to discontinue that practice is the real reason movie budgets have skyrocketed since the B&W days.
 
[quote name='furyk']

epobirs: See my response to sarausagi. My want of failure HD-DVD/Blu Ray has nothing to do with not believing they are superior formats. The next natural progression in entertainment is away from a physical medium. If Blu Ray/HD-DVD succeeds as rapidly as DVD did, there's no way that movie companies will slow things down. They'll continue to sell us the same thing over and over and over again (phasing out the system like is done with video game software). Five years from now every studio will sell films a'la carte, ten years from now they'll introduce servers with centralized downloads as connection speeds catch up, fifteen they'll sell pre-loaded hard drives with films (to meet the demand of people wanting some sort of physical media) and so on and so forth. That's the worst case scenario that I think would happen if one or both of the new DVD formats succeeds on any significant level.[/QUOTE]


You are under no requirement to repeatedly buy the same content. What you're really saying is that you want to be spared the temptation to have better versions of the same content. Since the new formats are designed to retain backward compatibility in their playback devices, this is a groundless worry.

I'm reminded of Kevin Smith's confession. Early in the DVD era he trash talked the format in several interviews, making many specious arguments. He later admitted that his real gripe was that he'd invested a small fortune in his wage slave days on a Laser Disc collection and the passing of that format had made him emotionally distressed. The real problem was that he'd allowed himself to spend beyond his means for those LDs and the rise of DVD only served to remind him of that. Once he'd gotten honest with himself he became very enthusiastic about DVD's advantages for a content creator like himself.

As I mentioned before, the new formats simply cannot take over the market at remotely the pace of DVD, primarily because of the requirement that HD displays become near universal and secondly due to the high level of satisfaction with DVD. It will take a very long time for people to feel required to go to HD or be cut off from a major part of the culture. Even then, their DVDs will still work just fine and the day when playback devices will no longer be easily available is so far off as to defy prediction.
 
[quote name='epobirs']You are under no requirement to repeatedly buy the same content. What you're really saying is that you want to be spared the temptation to have better versions of the same content. Since the new formats are designed to retain backward compatibility in their playback devices, this is a groundless worry.[/quote]

Assuming, of course, the next format isn't a movement away from a disc medium. I could just as easily see films on Memory Sticks/SD Cards/etc as the next format movement (assuming it is even on a medium). There were an awful lot of laser discs made and the vast majority of DVD players don't support VHS. The historical trend isn't towards backwards compatability, it's towards putting out better versions of what you already own on a premium format. It'd be nice if HD/Blu Ray bucked this trend permanently, but I doubt it.

[quote name='epobirs']I'm reminded of Kevin Smith's confession. Early in the DVD era he trash talked the format in several interviews, making many specious arguments. He later admitted that his real gripe was that he'd invested a small fortune in his wage slave days on a Laser Disc collection and the passing of that format had made him emotionally distressed. The real problem was that he'd allowed himself to spend beyond his means for those LDs and the rise of DVD only served to remind him of that. Once he'd gotten honest with himself he became very enthusiastic about DVD's advantages for a content creator like himself.[/quote]

First off, while I do have a substantial DVD collection, I never spend beyond my means. The vast majority of DVDs I own are bought on sale, used from a place that doesn't screw up the case. Like I said before, I don't dislike HD/Blu Ray. I just know that every media format that has won out in the end, whether it be tapes, cds, dvds, or mp3s, wins out not because of quality but because of covenience. That's why kids have 1000 songs on their iPods that are encoded at a 3rd of the quality of a CD. Outside of the game industry, I can't think of a single example of any entertainment medium adapted solely for improvements in quality. Covenience drives mainstream America.

[quote name='epobirs']As I mentioned before, the new formats simply cannot take over the market at remotely the pace of DVD, primarily because of the requirement that HD displays become near universal and secondly due to the high level of satisfaction with DVD. It will take a very long time for people to feel required to go to HD or be cut off from a major part of the culture. Even then, their DVDs will still work just fine and the day when playback devices will no longer be easily available is so far off as to defy prediction.[/QUOTE]

I'll post again what I already posted:

"I'm ok with sitting out for a while to see how all of this plays out. I know DVD isn't going anywhere for a while and I'm actually hoping that a solid media format wins out over digitally distributed content. I'm just concerned that if one of them does win out, the worst case slippery slope scenario happens."
 
[quote name='sarausagi']That's what you don't understand though, DVD as a format IS outdated, it has been for several years [even though something may be the consumer level technology of the time, doesn't mean that from a technical viewpoint it's not outdated]

I sincerely think that with 1080i/p video formats being the dominant media type, there won't be a "new" technology quite for a while. You have to admit 480p can only go so far, especially when it's not even REAL 480p, it's 480i material being decoded by a scaler.

HD and BD are both natively hd, so there's a big difference, it's not just a hardware trick. If internet users on a gaming message board can't understand the need for new formats, then no wonder every new format fails. How can I expect the average consumer to care any more?

Once you've listened to SACD, DVD AUDIO, HI-MD, you can't go back to regular CD. Hell, I can't go back to regular CD after a few years with regular mini disc. And MP3 just seems lacking and shallow to me [even though I have a decent mp3 player I picked up for a steal earlier this year]

Same thing with HD-DVD and Blu Ray, I haven't had the chance to sit a whole weekend with a player, but 30 minutes in front of Last Samurai at a store then sitting down in front of my HDTV with a GOOD dvd player and Last Samurai on DVD, I can tell the differences right away, even downconverted screen shots of both convey the obvious difference.

Now, after BD and HD, I don't think there's a need for a new format. I can see BD and HD coexisting, they have to, just the way Digital 8 and MiniDV have to coexist, just the way the market keeps making VCR/DVD players, just the way SACD/DVDA players are the norm now, and just like DVD has always supported SVCD, VCD, and PhotoCD.[/QUOTE]
how is 1080 i/p the dominant media type? most people don't have sets that will display it and most people just dont think the jump from sdtv to hdtv is worth the cost.

Bluray and HDdvd are both bullshit, anyone that is a early adopter for either of these new formats when niether one has all of the major studios making content for them is a retard that deserves to get raped with the $30 price tag on the new movies. Honestly what is so compelling about either of them? OMFG I just watched fast and the furious in HD!! and I only payed 30$!!!
 
[quote name='billyG']how is 1080 i/p the dominant media type? most people don't have sets that will display it and most people just dont think the jump from sdtv to hdtv is worth the cost.

Bluray and HDdvd are both bullshit, anyone that is a early adopter for either of these new formats when niether one has all of the major studios making content for them is a retard that deserves to get raped with the $30 price tag on the new movies. Honestly what is so compelling about either of them? OMFG I just watched fast and the furious in HD!! and I only payed 30$!!![/QUOTE]

How are they bullshit? They provide the performance driven consume the image quality and versatility they demand, no, that they absolutely prefer. Most of us that do have HDTV's and a dedicated viewing room are destined to settle for sub par image quality. Just the same way we were shafted about multi channel, we have the speakers, the equipment, we're willing to pay the price of the CD's, but oh no, the teenie boppers and soccer moms can't have itl, so let's just cancel it because most people can't tell the difference between multichannel 24 bit audio and lackluster stereo encoded at 16 bits. How the hell can you not tell the difference between something that sounds better than live, comes out of 5 speakers and a sub, and has all the fidelity of digital with the warmth of analog when comparing it to shrill, artificial sounding CD?!?!?!?

And more than anything, there's a large percentage of us that DON'T want digital media formats [no hard copy] or broadband services, we like our libraries, our shelves, our discs, our INSERTS. I know I feel that way about everything: music, movies, games, etc.

Pretty much, I see no reason why you iPod kids have to ruin it for those of us who actually prefer to by specialized audio/video equipment and actually enjoy high end consumer electronics.

Why do I say iPod kids? Because you want everything on the cheap, you want everything as simple and streamlined as possible, you're so fucking lazy you don't even want spend a few hours setting up something that will give you countless hours of entertainment. You don't want to even take the time to learn how your equipment actually works, you just want to plug in and play.

So yeah, fuck the mainstream, HD is the dominant standard and from a market/tech viewpoint, that's what matters. I don't care if Wal-Mart sells 10000000000000 Durabrand 20 inch analog sets, I don't care if you're happy with 480i, all I care is that you at least think about making the switch

You can BE a cheapass, and enjoy home theatre: my Panasonic HD CRT was $275 plus tax, at the time it was a 1200 TV, and it still has better image quality than any TV under $2500.
 
[quote name='sarausagi']So yeah, fuck the mainstream, HD is the dominant standard and from a market/tech viewpoint, that's what matters. I don't care if Wal-Mart sells 10000000000000 Durabrand 20 inch analog sets, I don't care if you're happy with 480i, all I care is that you at least think about making the switch.[/QUOTE]

That's the problem though. There is tons of good stuff out there that sometimes doesn't sell. Take cordless phones for example. They absolutely suck compared to a hard line, but how many people actually still use hard lines? Shit, can you even buy a good phone that's a hard line these days? There are superior mp3 players compared to the iPod, but ultimately, what sells the best drives the market, period. HD-DVD/Blu Ray is a significant improvement over DVD, but I simply don't think it will sell because people don't do the research. They buy fucking ring tones for $2.99 a pop though.
 
[quote name='furyk']That's the problem though. There is tons of good stuff out there that sometimes doesn't sell. Take cordless phones for example. They absolutely suck compared to a hard line, but how many people actually still use hard lines? Shit, can you even buy a good phone that's a hard line these days? There are superior mp3 players compared to the iPod, but ultimately, what sells the best drives the market, period. HD-DVD/Blu Ray is a significant improvement over DVD, but I simply don't think it will sell because people don't do the research. They buy fucking ring tones for $2.99 a pop though.[/QUOTE]

Hey, I agree, I don't know how the consumer mind works...sometimes regular phones are just more versatile but finding a good one is so very hard. Thank God I -love- Hello Kitty, they have an excellent phone, I've had it for more than three years and the sound quality blows away ANY cordless, the buttons are fast, clicky, and responsive, and there's no mess with power adapters or wireless network interference.

Pretty much the only option to get good corded phones is to buy them from estates and closed down offices, good multiline phones with excellent speakers and good buttons.

And the ring tone thing, I don't get it, there's SO many phones with memory card slots, USB cords, and there's so many free and low priced ring composer/converter programs out there, yet people still prefer downloading low quality, super short ringtones from their cell provider. Maybe it's just the "community" aspect of it, you make your own ring tone it sounds different than anyone else, but how cool is it to have the same "hot" tone as everyone else.
 
[quote name='sarausagi']How are they bullshit? They provide the performance driven consume the image quality and versatility they demand, no, that they absolutely prefer. Most of us that do have HDTV's and a dedicated viewing room are destined to settle for sub par image quality. Just the same way we were shafted about multi channel, we have the speakers, the equipment, we're willing to pay the price of the CD's, but oh no, the teenie boppers and soccer moms can't have itl, so let's just cancel it because most people can't tell the difference between multichannel 24 bit audio and lackluster stereo encoded at 16 bits. How the hell can you not tell the difference between something that sounds better than live, comes out of 5 speakers and a sub, and has all the fidelity of digital with the warmth of analog when comparing it to shrill, artificial sounding CD?!?!?!?

And more than anything, there's a large percentage of us that DON'T want digital media formats [no hard copy] or broadband services, we like our libraries, our shelves, our discs, our INSERTS. I know I feel that way about everything: music, movies, games, etc.

Pretty much, I see no reason why you iPod kids have to ruin it for those of us who actually prefer to by specialized audio/video equipment and actually enjoy high end consumer electronics.

Why do I say iPod kids? Because you want everything on the cheap, you want everything as simple and streamlined as possible, you're so fucking lazy you don't even want spend a few hours setting up something that will give you countless hours of entertainment. You don't want to even take the time to learn how your equipment actually works, you just want to plug in and play.

So yeah, fuck the mainstream, HD is the dominant standard and from a market/tech viewpoint, that's what matters. I don't care if Wal-Mart sells 10000000000000 Durabrand 20 inch analog sets, I don't care if you're happy with 480i, all I care is that you at least think about making the switch

You can BE a cheapass, and enjoy home theatre: my Panasonic HD CRT was $275 plus tax, at the time it was a 1200 TV, and it still has better image quality than any TV under $2500.[/QUOTE]
I'm willing to bet that I jumped on the HDTV bandwagon before you did, so don't lump me in with people who hate new technology. I just hate this new technology. There is no benifit to the consumer what so ever in this "format war". Unless you like the fact that you need to buy both players to get all of the movies since neither one is supported by all of the movie studios. And on top of that you get to pay $30 for movies now!! Great! Man that bluray copy of the last samuri must have some kick ass INSERTS! OMG HD Tom Cruise! I just can't wait until they have Top Gun on Blu Ray and Days of Thunder on HD-DVD then I can justify blowing my money on both!
 
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