[quote name='visorman30']
X-box 360 - I think there are some launch goggles for this one because I think people forget there really wasn't many games at launch (Geometry wars and PGR) and the hardware had red ring for years. By all accounts the 360 was a highly successful product and I think paved the way for Microsoft to start building hardware themselves (Surface).[/quote]
Okay, all my responses are going to come off as if I'm an Xbox fanboy here, but this is how I honestly see the situation. The first year of the 360 was loaded with games. Call of Duty 2, Oblivion, Hit Man: Blood Money, Dead or Alive 4, Burnout Revenge, GRAW, Dead Rising, Condemned, Saints Row, F.E.A.R., Splinter Cell: Double Agent, Gears of War. There was never a lack of games for the console.
It goes on and on. (PSP, PS Vita, PS2 and Dreamcast)
Dreamcast and PSP actually had very strong first year lineups.
I have some serious concerns for the next X-box for a few reasons.
#1: Exclusive content on their platform is becoming scarce. As much as Nintendo rehashes stuff, Microsoft is more guilty of it because they only have a very small handful of IP that they call their own. How many more Halo games can the market take? A bunch, but is that enough to sustain a platform given Steam and its incursion into the living room.
Halo is huge. Having a small stable of really proven IPs has been a winning formula for Microsoft.
Steam has an unbelievably minimal impact on Halo's future.
#2: X-box Live is overpriced. One of the greatest strengths is really being undercut by Sony/Valve with respect to the actual savings PSN+/Steam users are getting for the same game.
I don't think Xbox Live is overpriced. Do I like paying for it? Nope. But, look at their subscriber base and people voting with their wallet think the service is worth it.
#3: Hardware hesitation. Just like there is now a rule of thumb in the internet to not buy the first gen of Nintendo products (GBA, DS, etc.) and Apple products because of inevitable iteration and significant improvement, the next X-box could be chilled by the fact that owners of X-boxes that have red ringed may have less enthusiasm until the hardware proves itself.
I don't think the Red Ring will have much effect on the next Xbox's sales at all. Microsoft replaced everyone's consoles and the models they've been selling for the past 5 years haven't had a bad failure rate. The majority of 360 owners at this point likely don't even know there was an issue.
Honestly, I have serious doubts that the dedicated gaming console market is viable beyond 3 major players.
I agree, Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo.