Ichiro hit-record FREE GAME contest

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Any math or stat pros out there? Which game will it be when Ichiro breaks the all-time hits-in-a-season record? I live in the San Francisco Bay Area and The Mariners' Oakland visit is the second to last series before the end of the season so I'm hopeful it'll happen there. But which game? There are 4 in this series vs. Oakland I believe.

I'd like to make it interesting. I'd like to offer the first correct guesser ANY video game released 2004 if these conditions are met:

a) Ichiro hits his 258th hit of the season at the game your picked.
b) You give me a decent mathematically supported reason why it's that particular game. It doesn't have to be 100% accurate, especially since at Ichiro's pace, he's actually due to break the record before Oakland. I'm thinking factoring in the pitching performance of the remaining teams would help you.
c) I decide to actually go to that particular game.

How do you know I'll keep my word? I believe in the honor system. It's really no problem getting any game since I work in gaming media. If it's a 2004 game released after this baseball season, you'll obviously have to wait.

One entry per person.

I just want to be there when it happens!
 
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I got it happening on the 27th of september against oakland. Thats exacly 20 games. He would have to get around 1.65 hits a game which is very realistic seeing the pictcher he will have to face. Cleveland(my team has no slouches), Bosten is looking for first, Anaheim is trying to stay in it, Oakland has awsome pitching. Everybody is in a race. Even texas is still in it which is the soft spot in the teams left. Every team has decent to awsome pitching so that my reason for him batting around 320%. Hey whats the prize though. Im not expecting anything big but im hoping for something better them madden01. You should make it a copy of mvp. That would be cool.
 
I say that it's the second game of the Oakland series.

The math is simple, but I did it quickly. Right now, he's got 224 hits in 135 games, an average of 1.659 hits per game. I'm assuming that he'll keep that average going, so I divided 258 (the hit we're looking for) by 1.659 (the average) to get 155.5 (the number of games to get to 258 while keeping that average). Subtracting the 135 game he's already played from that, it's going to take him another 20.5 games to get to 258. That would be halfway through the second Oakland game.

It's a crappy explanation...but I tried, didn't I? :D
 
He's averaging 2.1 hits per game since the break (105/50) and 1.66 hits per game on the year (224/135). Taking the average of those 2 numbers (he can't stay that hot, but I can't see him slumping) you get 1.88, 34 hits in 18 games, he'll break the record:
9/25 at Texas!!
 
September 29th is my prediction if any. The reason for this is because he has 224 hits right now, and in 22 games, there will be days where he goes 0-4 or 4-4, so yeah, by 22 games, he'll have 38-40 hits by then in which he will break the record.
 
I hope Ichiro breaks his leg with 1 hit to go.

I used to really like him as a player, but he has been extremely selfish on the field this year. Yes, his team is going nowhere, but thats no excuse to try and bunt for a hit with 2 out and a man on 2nd. Selfish, selfish crap.
 
[quote name='cleaver']He's averaging 2.1 hits per game since the break (105/50) and 1.66 hits per game on the year (224/135). Taking the average of those 2 numbers (he can't stay that hot, but I can't see him slumping) you get 1.88, 34 hits in 18 games, he'll break the record:
9/25 at Texas!![/quote]

What he said because I don't know jack about baseball.
 
[quote name='dafoomie']I hope Ichiro breaks his leg with 1 hit to go.

I used to really like him as a player, but he has been extremely selfish on the field this year. Yes, his team is going nowhere, but thats no excuse to try and bunt for a hit with 2 out and a man on 2nd. Selfish, selfish crap.[/quote]

Who is that selfish? Do you expect Ichiro to do anything EXCEPT get an infield single that would more than likely get the runner out at 2cd if he doesn't advance? Bunting = safer for Ichiro with a man on.
 
I say he ties it october 1st, then breaks it october 2nd. I figure he will get 1 hit tomorrow, then 2 hits on the first. ( I think he is 3 away now?)
 
I say he will get 2 hits tonight (9/30) to tie the record and then break the record the following night. I predict all 3 will be singles also, since that is pretty much all he can do.
 
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